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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 08/10/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                 Tuesday 08-10-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                       1 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Measured Pace Continues
Futures Markets: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Technology dampens bullish response to Fed
Market Sentiment: Short Covering


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      08-10-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     9944.67 +130.00  9944.67  9815.47 1.50 bln 2343/ 880
NASDAQ   1808.70 + 34.10  1808.70  1782.26 1.48 bln 2202/ 893
S&P 100   528.77 +  6.35   528.77   522.42   Totals 4545/1773
S&P 500  1079.04 + 13.82  1079.04  1065.22
SOX       392.96 +  5.30   393.08   387.44
RUS 2000  529.83 + 11.45   529.84   518.38
DJ TRANS 3044.87 + 74.80  3044.87  2971.10
VIX        17.47 -  1.42    18.86    17.25
VXO (VIX-O)16.90 -  1.56    18.50    16.90
VXN        26.52 -  0.93    27.59    25.90
Total Volume 3,263M
Total UpVol  2,600M
Total DnVol    616M
Total Adv  5048
Total Dcl  2119
52wk Highs   43
52wk Lows   292
TRIN       0.60
NAZTRIN    1.33
PUT/CALL   1.03
************************************************************

Measured Pace Continues
by Jim Brown

The markets waited on pins and needles for the Fed news
and once it came they realized there was no change. The
morning rebound faltered for a few minutes while everyone
waited to see who would blink first and then charged ahead.
Is it a real rally or just an oversold bounce?

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


SPX Chart



The morning opened with second quarter Productivity and
Costs with productivity rising +2.9% and well over the
consensus estimates of +2%. Some analysts had suggested
we could even see a drop in productivity. The increase
came on a very weak +0.8% increase in hours worked. The
manufacturing sector saw a huge jump of +7.5% with the
primary gains in nondurable goods. This was a strong
report but suggests a weakness in future hiring. When
productivity rises there is less need to add new workers.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at only
six compared to 14 in June. This was the second monthly
decline in the headline number from 22 in May. However,
several of the components showed a marked improvement
with New Orders rising from 1 to 13 and the six-month
outlook jumping to 33 from 10. That is the highest
six month number since the recent high of 44 in December.
The outlook had been declining all year with last months
10 the cycle low. A rebound to 33 is very strong and
would seem to suggest things are beginning to look up
again. The only negative component was order backlog
which at -3 was still better than the low for the year
last month at -12. Overall the headline number is the
lowest level of expansion for the year but internal
components suggest July could have been the bottom.
The qualification is that it only relates to the
Richmond area.

Of course the big news of the day was the Fed and it
turned out to be no news at all. The Fed went ahead
and raised the rate +25 points as expected. They also
failed to calm nerves by suggesting in their statement
that they were willing to back away from their pace
of measured increases for the rest of the year. The
Fed continued their position that rates are accommodative
and need to be brought back into line to prevent future
inflation. The Fed said that except for energy prices
inflation has been tame and the current spike is due
to those transitory energy prices. The only bone they
threw to investors was "The economy nevertheless appears
poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going
forward." They acknowledged the slowing growth and
weak job market but kept their bullish stance.

The markets pulled back slightly just after the news
but a strong buy program helped push shorts to cover
just before the close and pushed the Dow to a +130
point gain. The Nasdaq added +34 and the SPX +13.
It appeared to be a bullish day but I believe it was
mostly due to short covering before Cisco earnings.
We had a strong tech decline and buyers were hoping
for the Fed to take a pass and for Cisco to beat the
street and raise guidance. In retrospect they only
got one out of their three wishes.

After the bell Cisco reported earnings that beat the
street by a penny. They always beat by a penny so this
was expected and not outstanding news. Cisco also said
inventory levels were rising just as Intel said with
their earnings. Cisco claimed it was not yet a problem
but it was the second quarter of rising inventory levels.
Cisco then said earnings would be flat to only slightly
higher for the current quarter. Chambers said CEOs were
only seeing modest growth ahead. Cash flow was tight
and the increase in inventory reminded investors of
the massive $2.5 billion write off of inventory during
the last business cycle. If inventories are rising and
sales are slowing it is not a good sign and CSCO fell
under $19 in after hours trading.

Also disappointing tech bulls after the close was an
earnings warning from National Semi (NSM) which said
revenue would fall on lower than expected demand. This
was disappointing since NSM had previously said revenue
would rise. The company said orders were expected to
decrease in August but the decrease had been much more
significant than originally expected. They blamed the
weakness on slower growth rates for flat panel display
products and lower than expected demand from wireless
handset manufacturers.

It was a tough night for tech company earnings with
Computer Sciences (CSC) beating the street by a penny
and affirming guidance. CSC was still knocked for a
loss to $42 from its $44.20 close.

Oil broke over $45 intraday but pulled back to close
at $44.50 as traders took profits. The outlook is
still bearish with higher prices ahead but stocks
appeared to be ignoring these new levels. Our
vaccination to high oil must be kicking in but I
bet the first touch of $50 will be a knockout. If
you remember my comments about Hubbert's Peak last
week those same comments were echoed by Boone
Pickens in an interview on Monday. I realize he is
a wildcat but his thoughts that production had
peaked forever at 83 million barrels per day did
agree with my comments last week. Evidently the
stock market has elected to ignore oil as old news
after only two weeks of running in panic with every
quarter jump in price.

The rest of the week has a barrage of economic reports
but only Friday has anything of importance with the
PPI. I believe it is not economics we need to fear
the rest of the week but instead the buildup to the
opening ceremony for the Olympics on Friday night.
This kicks off two weeks of event risk and the
markets really have no coming events to offset that
risk and draw investors back into the market.

The Dow rebound over 9900 today was exciting for the
bulls but the odds of it sticking are slim. The SPX
rallied to 1078 but stopped right at the 200 week
average. This should be strong resistance and with
the three major techs reporting earnings after the
close and taking sizeable hits the odds are good it
will open well below 1078 tomorrow.

I am not going to spend a lot of words rehashing
the risk for the next three weeks but it still exists.
Overhead resistance still exists and I believe today
was an oversold bounce, short covering and betting
on Cisco. I could be as wrong as the next guy but
I believe the markets will have a tough time moving
higher until after Labor Day. More likely we will
either move lower or trade in a range under Dow 10K
until the threat passes. Investors should take advantage
of any dips over the next three weeks to nibble at good
stocks being taken down with the rest of the market. I
said nibble, not back up the truck. Normally we see
strong dips in Sep/Oct but in election years September
can be bullish. Let's hope this is one of those years.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


***************
FUTURES MARKETS
***************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


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*****************
INDEX TRADER WRAP
*****************

Technology dampens bullish response to Fed

The major indices reclaimed the bulk of Monday's losses with the
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,079.04 +1.29% jumping more than 13-points
on broad sector gains after the Federal Open Market Committee
raising its target for the fed funds rate to 1.5% from 1.25%.

Treasuries, which traded either side of unchanged for the bulk of
the session finished at their price lows of the session with
yields moving higher, as the benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X)
jumped 4.3 basis points to close at its WEEKLY Pivot of 4.287%.

A quick look at the October Fed Funds futures contract (ff04v)
98.33 -0.03%, which would encompass the September 21 FOMC meeting
has market participants forecasting a 68% chance of another 25
basis point rate hike to 1.75% at the September meeting.

U.S. Market Watch - 08/10/04 Close



A sector downgrade on the semiconductors had the Semiconductor
Index (SOX.X) 392.96 +1.37% lagging today's gains among
technology sectors.  An after-the-bell earnings warning from
SOX.X component National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM) $15.70 +0.51%
found the stock hit lower at $14.20.  The Semiconductor HOLDRs
(AMEX:SMH) $30.86 +1.04%, which NSM is also a component, was hit
lower at $30.15, where today's high in the SMH did NOT see trade
at its QCharts' derived MONTHLY Pivot ($31.44), but may have its
WEEKLY S1 ($29.68) challenged in tomorrow mornings trade.

Networking giant Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $20.46 +2.04% fell
to $19.39 in extended hours (WEEKLY S1 $19.46, S2 $19.01) after
reporting quarterly results.  Forward quarterly revenue guidance
of flat to up 0.2% sequentially (consensus was +2.9%) failed to
impress traders in tonight's after-hours session.  In the above
U.S. Market Watch, I marked the Networking Index (NWX.X) with its
QCharts' WEEKLY S1 (201.30) as a near-term level of potential
support, where we would expect some of the networkers to exhibit
weakness in tomorrow morning's session.

Another tech casualty in Tuesday evenings extended session was
Computer Sciences (NYSE:CSC) $44.20 +1.28%, where the information
technology (IT) service provider reported bottom line results of
$0.58 per share, which was a penny better than consensus, but
revenues disappointed.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 08/10/04 Close



Just prior to today's decision on interest rates, I profiled a
BEARISH trade in the underlying NASDAQ-100 Tracker (AMEX:QQQ) at
$32.18, stop $32.55, target $32.25, as it looked like sellers
were going to keep a lid on things at the MONTHLY S1s.

The TRIN started to edge up from post-lunchtime lows and both the
NYSE and NASDAQ a/d lines looked to be fading a bit.

Since the equity markets responded bullish to the Fed's decision,
and equity indices were able to move above their MONTHLY S1s, I
have to view those correlations with tomorrow's DAILY S1s as a
viable level of near-term support.

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



The major equity indices traded up to their MONTHLY S1s just
ahead of today's FOMC decision to raise its target for the fed
funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%.  Just after the decision
was announced, the major indices slipped back to Tuesday's DAILY
R1s, but buy program premiums were found on that dip which drove
the major indices to new session highs and their WEEKLY Pivots.

Negative responses to tech earnings released after the closing
bell (04:00 PM EDT) has the Dow Diamonds (AMEX:DIA) down 27 cents
from its 04:15 PM EDT close at $99.30, the S&P Depository
Receipts (AMEX:SPY) $108.38 +1.28% lower at $107.92 and the
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (AMEX:QQQ) off 20 cents at $33.01.  So far,
the QQQ hasn't been able to break below tomorrow's DAILY S1,
where my extended hours chart shows the tech-heavy QQQ having
traded a low of.... $32.93.

While technology will grab tomorrow's headlines, traders may be
well served to keep an eye on your financial sectors where a bold
break above WEEKLY R1 (I didn't see MONTHLY Pivot correlation
until this writing) in the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) could be an
alert to broader market strength.

Jeff Bailey


****************
MARKET SENTIMENT
****************

Short Covering
 - J. Brown

Depending on what direction you've been trading it's been pretty
easy to get whipsawed in this market.  Last week stocks were
breaking down through support left and right.  Given today's
massive and broad-based bounce a good number of stocks have
reversed their bearish breakdowns.  Some of the indices are
painting what could be three-day bullish reversal candlestick
patterns.

Is today a one-day fluke or is it a repeat of the late July
oversold bounce that will die out in a couple of more days?
Market internals were certainly bullish with advancing stocks
outnumbering decliners by more than 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 21 to
8 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was about six times down volume on
the NYSE and about three times down volume on the NASDAQ.  Those
are some bullish readings although overall volume was somewhat
light.

It makes one wonder if today's gain was mostly fueled by short
covering.  A lot of traders could have been opening new shorts on
last week's breakdown and to have stocks back above their support
levels today could be unnerving.  Thursday and Friday will bring
a number of new economic data but it's the upcoming Olympics and
Republican convention that could be the market moving or stalling
events.  You may have already guessed that with volume this low a
number of investors have just moved to the sidelines until
September.  That may be a good idea.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9146
Current     :  9944

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10025
 50-dma: 10184
200-dma: 10227



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  974
Current     : 1079

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1089
 50-dma: 1105
200-dma: 1108



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1208
Current     : 1346

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1368
 50-dma: 1413
200-dma: 1445



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.47 –1.42
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.90 –1.56
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.52 –0.93


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.03        606,837       622,547
Equity Only    0.89        420,364       375,145
OEX            0.69         42,620        29,576
QQQ            3.80         20,778        78,877


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          54.3    - 1     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    27.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   53.3    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       48.4    - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       49.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.60
10-dma: 1.37
21-dma: 1.33
55-dma: 1.20


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2131      2189
Decliners     677       855

New Highs      30        19
New Lows       49       119

Up Volume   1254M     1074M
Down Vol.    216M      357M

Total Vol.  1482M     1455M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/27/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders haven't made any big bets but the data
we're looking at doesn't reflect the big sell-off in the last
two days.  Small traders remain bullish as of this report.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/13/04      407,166   416,869   ( 9,703)   (1.2%)
07/22/04      404,828   419,017   (14,189)   (1.7%)
07/27/04      397,354   422,914   (25,560)   (3.1%)
08/03/04      401,619   419,429   (17,810)   (2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04      133,935    95,787    38,148    16.6%
07/22/04      138,123    94,990    43,133    15.5%
07/27/04      135,136    90,433    44,703    19.8%
08/03/04      128,510    88,833    39,677    18.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Not much movement in the e-minis from commercial traders.  Small
traders have turned a bit more bullish, but again this is before
the big sell-off.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/13/04      265,142   427,017   (161,875)  (23.4%)
07/22/04      309,972   428,240   (118,268)  (16.0%)
07/27/04      337,615   429,477   ( 91,862)  (12.0%)
08/03/04      340,053   428,736   ( 88,683)  (11.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04      225,410     57,699   167,711    59.2%
07/22/04      212,078     62,416   149,662    54.5%
07/27/04      186,211     68,930   117,281    46.0%
08/03/04      195,105     68,717   126,388    47.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have reversed their previous gain by
paring their longs and adding to their shorts.  Meanwhile
small traders have turned bearish again.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04       44,211     37,007     7,204    8.9%
07/22/04       45,069     37,975     7,094    8.5%
07/27/04       43,042     35,935     7,107    9.0%
08/03/04       42,771     36,863     5,908    7.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04        7,847    15,243    (7,396)  (32.0%)
07/22/04        9,398    11,776    (2,378)  (11.2%)
07/27/04       14,543    14,518        25     0.0%
08/03/04        8,995    13,901    (4,906)  (21.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials seem to be taking some money off the table as
their bullish stances seems to waver a bit here.  Small traders
pared back their longs and their shorts but remained net
bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04       27,773    20,573    7,200      14.9%
07/22/04       27,957    20,389    7,568      15.7%
07/27/04       27,577    21,427    6,150      12.5%
08/03/04       30,118    25,029    5,089       9.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/13/04        5,292     9,068   (3,776)   (26.3%)
07/22/04        4,857     7,297   (2,440)   (20.1%)
07/27/04        5,310     6,099   (  789)   ( 6.9%)
08/03/04        4,325     5,212   (  887)   ( 9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 08-10-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Call Play Updates: IMO, SYMC, TXT
New Calls Plays: POT
Put Play Updates: AMZN, AZO, CAT, CI, DGX, EBAY, RIMM, WHR
New Put Plays: None


****************
PICKS WE DROPPED
****************

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time.
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


CALLS:
*****

None


PUTS:
*****

None


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Brokerage Group, addressing the demand for personalized,
experienced service for both securities* and futures trading
within the same firm. Licensed Option Principals Andrew Aronson
and Alan Knuckman specialize in live assistance of stock*,
option* and futures traders. The combination of the proven Man
Financial global presence and the convenience of one group for
all trading needs provide customers with the tools needed for
success.

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********************
PLAY UPDATES - CALLS
********************

Imperial Oil - IMO - close: 46.90 change: -0.40 stop: 46.75

We knew it was trouble when IMO broke down under the $48.00 level
on Friday.  Now shares have continued to fall and the stock is
down five days in a row as investors continue to profit taking in
the oil sector.  The close under the $47.00 level is very bearish
for us.  While IMO is now short-term oversold and due for a
bounce we expect to be stopped out tomorrow at $46.75.

Picked on August 1st at $49.49
Change since picked:    - 2.59
Earnings Date         07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      55 thousand
Chart =


---

Symantec - SYMC - close: 46.28 change: +0.71 stop: 42.45

Yesterday SYMC announced that it had made a $20 million
accounting error in its calculation of deferred revenue.
Normally accounting "errors" tend to send a stock dropping yet
for SYMC Wall Street's reaction was ho-hum.  Shares of SYMC
barely budged on Monday and most of the big names covering the
stock merely reiterated their previous positions.  The correction
for the error would actually boost its current quarter's results.
We're actually pretty bullish on SYMC right now.  The stock broke
out over the $46 level and broke its short-term trend of lower
highs.  We've been commenting on SYMC in the MarketMonitor and
mentioned that the move over $46 looked like a new bullish entry
point.  We're not going to change our stop loss just yet but more
conservative traders could adjust theirs toward the $44.00
region.

Picked on July 27 at $ 44.91
Change since picked:  + 1.37
Earnings Date       07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    5.4 million
Chart =


---

Textron - TXT - close: 62.06 change: +1.11 stop: 59.49

TXT turned in a good day with a 1.8 percent bounce from the
$61.00 level as the Dow Industrials rose 130 points.  This looks
like a new bullish entry point in TXT as the short-term
technicals start to reverse higher again.  The P&F chart remains
very bullish.  We're not going to change our stop loss at $59.49
just yet but more conservative traders could slide their stops
under the $61.00 level.

Picked on July 26th at $60.72
Change since picked:   + 1.34
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    622 thousand
Chart =



**************
NEW CALL PLAYS
**************

Potash - POT - close: 102.17 change: +2.17 stop: 97.51

Company Description:
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. is the world's largest
fertilizer enterprise producing the three primary plant nutrients
and a leading supplier to three distinct market categories:
agriculture, with the largest capacity in the world in potash,
fourth largest in phosphate and third largest in nitrogen; animal
nutrition, with the world's largest capacity in phosphate feed
ingredients; and industrial chemicals, as the largest global
producer of industrial nitrogen products and one of only three
North American suppliers of industrial phosphates.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
POT is soaring as the company recently announced record earnings
with results more than doubling over last year.  Inventories are
tight while demand continues to rise and that gives POT strong
pricing power and it's falling to the bottom line.  Shares of POT
have spent the last several days consolidating at and under
round-number, psychological resistance at the $100.00 mark.  Now
the stock is breaking out on almost double the average volume.
We think POT can keep the momentum alive with a two-for-1 stock
split scheduled for August 18th.

We want to play the momentum and target a move to its P&F chart
target at $110.  Readers can choose to go long now at $102 or
look for a dip back toward the $100 level.

Suggested Option:
We're going to suggest the September calls.
We like the September 100s.

BUY CALL SEP  95 POT-IS OI= 74 current ask $8.40
BUY CALL SEP 100 POT-IT OI= 61 current ask $5.30
BUY CALL SEP 105 POT-IA OI= 73 current ask $2.85

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 10th at $102.17
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       180 thousand
Chart =



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*******************
PLAY UPDATES - PUTS
*******************

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 37.10 change: +1.78 stop: 38.85*new*

This is an important test for AMZN.  After spending two days
testing support at the $35.00 level shares soared more than 5
percent on Tuesday as the tech sector rebounded from oversold
conditions.  AMZN certainly qualified as oversold and was due for
a bounce but as expected the simple 10-dma held as overhead
resistance.  AMZN was so oversold that the bounce has sent its
technicals edging higher.  While we're not expecting the markets
to rally tomorrow given the CSCO earnings disappointment and the
NSM earnings warning we still don't feel like suggesting new
bearish positions here in AMZN.  We are going to lower our stop
loss to $38.85 but more conservative traders might want to lower
their stops to breakeven.

Picked on August 3rd at $37.61
Change since picked:    - 0.51
Earnings Date         07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     8.3 million
Chart =


---

AutoZone - AZO - close: 75.39 change: +1.22 stop: 76.51

As of yesterday the rally back toward $75.00 was looking like a
new bearish entry point since AZO was starting to roll over under
resistance.  Now with the market's explosive rebound on Tuesday
higher AZO has managed to actually close over the $75.00 mark.
This is not good news for the bears who need to see shares
reverse quickly.  We are not suggesting new bearish positions at
this time.

Picked on August 4th at $74.60
Change since picked:    + 0.79
Earnings Date         05/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.0 million
Chart =


---

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 71.26 change: +1.19 stop: 73.25

Uh-oh!  The Dow's 130-point gain has inspired some confidence in
the bulls and CAT has managed to close back above the $70.00
level.  This is not good news and we urge caution.  Conservative
traders may want to exit to preserve their capital.  We're still
expecting CAT to have overhead resistance at its simple 10-dma
(71.85) and the $72.00 level.  Aggressive traders can watch this
area for a failed rally.

Picked on August 5th at $70.75
Change since picked:    + 0.51
Earnings Date         07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     2.4 million
Chart =


--

Cigna Corp - CI - close: 62.33 change: +1.78 stop: 62.51

CI is another big cap that's getting whip sawed pretty sharply
after its recent bearish breakdown.  Last week shares produced a
very bearish engulfing candlestick and followed it with a
breakdown under its simple 200-dma and the $60.00 mark.  Now the
stock is rocketing higher again back above the 200-dma and its
10-dma.  We would not suggest new bearish plays until CI traded
back under the $60.00 level.  If shares don't reverse soon we'll
be stopped out at $62.51.

Picked on August 6th at $59.59
Change since picked:    + 2.74
Earnings Date         08/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     985 thousand
Chart =


---

Quest Diagnostic - DGX - close: 81.69 chg +1.26 stop: 82.51

We see the same sharp bullish reversal in DGX after its bearish
breakdown last week.  This is a pivotal spot for the stock as it
nears technical resistance from its simple 21-dma and the top of
its descending channel.  Aggressive traders might actually watch
for a failed rally under $82.00.  The rest of us can wait for DGX
to hit our TRIGGER to go short at $78.99.  Until then we'll sit
on the sidelines.

Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:    - 0.00
Earnings Date         07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     602 thousand
Chart =


---

eBay Inc - EBAY - close: 75.74 change: +2.77 stop: 77.50

EBAY was not left out of the sharp turnaround in the tech sector
today.  The INX Internet index rallied 3.3 percent and EBAY
climbed 3.79 percent to close back above the $75.00 level.
Optimistic traders might see this as a bullish turnaround with a
higher-low compared to July's dip.  That's certainly a
possibility but the bearish P&F chart is still in a column of O's
and hasn't reversed yet.  We are not going to suggest new bearish
positions at this time but more aggressive traders might want to
consider a failed rally under $76.50.  No change in our stop loss
at $77.50.

Picked on August 3rd at $77.08
Change since picked:    - 1.34
Earnings Date         07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     9.1 million
Chart =


---

Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 56.45 chg: +1.29 stop: 58.51

Looking at RIMM we see the same whipsaw as the rest of the tech
sector but probably to a lesser degree.  Bears should be extra
cautious though now that RIMM is back above the simple 100-dma,
which was support back in May.  It is worth noting that the July
lows are currently acting as short-term overhead resistance.  We
would not suggest new bearish positions until RIMM traded under
$55.00 or back under our old trigger at $54.50. Should RIMM
continue to bounce we might get stopped out at $58.51 but readers
can look for another potential bearish entry point on a failed
rally under $60.00.

Picked on August 6th at $54.50
Change since picked:    + 1.95
Earnings Date         06/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     6.7 million
Chart =


---

Whirlpool - WHR - close: 60.50 change: +0.50 stop: 61.51

We mentioned a short-term bounce and failed rally at old support
in the Sunday newsletter.  We were expecting a potential move
like that after the FOMC meeting but it came early on Monday.
WHR did manage a bounce today but flirted with the $60.00 level
the entire session.  We're still bearish and a failed rally under
$61.00 still looks like an entry point but we'd prefer to
initiate new bearish positions on a drop below $59.50.

Picked on August 6th at $58.71
Change since picked:    + 1.79
Earnings Date         07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     849 thousand
Chart =



*************
NEW PUT PLAYS
*************

None


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**********

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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 08-10-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        3 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Three:

Watch List: Short and sweet
Spreads & Straddles: FOMC Decision Sparks Rally!
Premium Selling Plays: Naked Puts & Calls


**********
WATCH LIST
**********

Short and sweet

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


Alltel - AT - close: 52.36 change: +0.96

WHAT TO WATCH: Heads up for telecom bulls.  AT beat the market in
July and broke out from its wedge-like pattern to hit new
relative highs.  Now after a couple of days of profit taking in
August the stock is rebounding again.  Traders might want to use
a trigger over $53.00 or $53.50 as an entry point for new bullish
positions.  The bullish P&F chart points to a $72 target but we
would target a run toward $60.00.

Chart=


---

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 70.84 change: +1.85

WHAT TO WATCH: The XBD broker-dealer index has produced a very
big bounce today with a 2.68% gain.  LEH paced the move and
climbed back above the $70.00 level.  Optimistic traders might
look at LEH and see a potential double-bottom near the $67.50
level.  Bulls can look for a breakout over $71.00, the top of the
current trading range, as a new entry point but watch out for the
host of moving averages resting overhead.

Chart=


---

United Technologies - UTX - close: 91.28 change: +1.81

WHAT TO WATCH: Dow-component UTX climbed more than 2% as the
Industrial average added 130 points.  The move in UTX is a nice
rebound from the $90 region and a test of its simple 200-dma.  If
the bounce in the market is not a one-day fluke then bulls can
look for UTX to rebound back toward resistance at $95.00.

Chart=



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*******************
SPREADS & STRADDLES
*******************

FOMC Decision Sparks Rally!
By Ray Cummins

Stocks closed with sharp gains after the Federal Reserve raised
interest rates 25 basis points and reiterated that future rate
hikes can "proceed at a measured pace."

The Fed also noted that higher oil prices had hurt the economy,
but suggested that economic expansion appears poised to resume
at a stronger pace going forward.  The blue-chip Dow Industrial
Average closed up 130 points at 9,944 on strength in American
Express (NYSE:AXP), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), United Technologies
(NYSE:UTX) and Honeywell (NYSE:HON).  The NASDAQ Composite ended
up 34 points at 1,808 as semiconductor, networking and internet
shares rebounded.  The S&P 500 added 13 points to close at 1,079,
with airlines and brokers among the best performers.  Advancers
outpaced decliners by roughly 3 to 1 on both the New York Stock
Exchange and the NASDAQ.  Big Board volume exceeded 1.25 billion
shares while about 1.43 billion shares traded on the technology
exchange.  In the bond market, the 10-year note dropped 2/32 to
yield 4.27%.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SUMMARY OF CURRENT POSITIONS - AS OF 08/08/04
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The following summary is a reasonable account of the positions
previously offered in this section.  However, no representation
is being made as to the actual performance of a position and in
fact, there are frequently large differences between the summary
results and those of our subscribers, due to the variety of ways
in which each play can be opened, closed, and/or adjusted.  In
addition, the summary might not be completely representative of
the manner in which the average trader would react to changing
conditions in a position and to the options market in general.
The editor of this section does not take actual positions in any
published plays and the summary comments are simply a service to
help new traders understand when positions might be opened and
closed.  In most cases, actions taken based on the commentary
would be far too late to be effective, thus it is not intended
as a substitute for personal trade management nor does it in
any way replace your duty to diligently monitor and manage the
positions in your portfolio.


PUT-CREDIT SPREADS

Stock  Pick   Last   Mon  L/P   S/P  Credit   CB     G/L   Status

FRE    63.57  65.04  AUG  55.0  60.0  0.55   59.45   0.55   Open
POT    98.08  98.57  AUG  85.0  90.0  0.60   89.40   0.60   Open
FAST   54.74  58.53  AUG  45.0  50.0  0.60   49.40   0.60   Open
PD     79.00  73.41  AUG  65.0  70.0  0.60   69.40   0.60   Open
AAPL   32.30  29.78  AUG  27.5  30.0  0.30   29.70   0.08  Closed
FSH    58.66  56.54  AUG  50.0  55.0  0.65   54.35   0.65   Open?
ANSS   47.44  43.00  AUG  40.0  45.0  0.45   44.55  (1.55) Closed
WBSN   38.19  35.20  AUG  30.0  35.0  0.45   34.55   0.45   Open?
BJS    49.60  45.90  AUG  45.0  47.5  0.35   47.15  (1.25) Closed
RTP   105.00 102.10  AUG  95.0 100.0  0.55   99.45   0.55   Open

L/P = Long Put  S/P = Short Put  CB = Cost Basis  G/L = Gain/Loss

The broad sell-off in equities pushed a number of positions into
the "early-exit" category including Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL),
Anyss (NASDAQ:ANSS), and BJ Services (NYSE:BJS).  Issues on the
"watch" list include: Fisher Scientific (NYSE:FSH) and Websense
(NASDAQ:WBSN).  Positions in Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), which
is currently profitable, Anthem (NYSE:ATH), University of Phoenix
Online (NASDAQ:UOPX) and Wellpoint (NYSE:WLP), have previously
been closed to limit losses.


CALL-CREDIT SPREADS

Stock  Pick   Last   Mon  L/C   S/C  Credit   CB    G/L   Status

LLTC   36.74  37.25  AUG  42.5  40.0  0.30   40.30  0.30   Open
XLNX   31.53  27.96  AUG  37.5  35.0  0.25   35.25  0.25   Open
MERQ   46.17  32.95  AUG  55.0  50.0  0.65   50.65  0.65   Open
SMH    34.58  30.65  AUG  42.5  40.0  0.30   40.30  0.30   Open
TLB    33.04  26.81  AUG  40.0  35.0  0.60   35.60  0.60   Open
VAR    77.24  31.38  AUG  90.0  85.0  0.50   85.50  0.50   Open
KLAC   43.33  38.38  AUG  50.0  47.5  0.25   47.75  0.25   Open
NVLS   29.23  24.90  AUG  35.0  32.5  0.20   32.70  0.20   Open
BZH    90.65  93.56  AUG 105.0 100.0  0.45  100.45  0.45   Open
LLY    64.67  61.00  AUG  75.0  70.0  0.65   70.65  0.65   Open
ACS    51.80  49.49  AUG  60.0  55.0  0.45   55.45  0.45   Open
DIGE   33.08  31.65  AUG  40.0  35.0  0.55   35.55  0.55   Open
SRCL   48.00  47.25  AUG  55.0  50.0  0.30   50.30  0.30   Open

L/C = Long Call S/C = Short Call CB = Cost Basis G/L = Gain/Loss


DEBIT STRADDLES

Stock   Pick   Last   Exp.   Long   Long  Initial   Max     Play
Symbol  Price  Price  Month  Call   Put    Debit   Value   Status

DVN     69.40  65.35   AUG   70.00  70.00   5.00    5.00    Open
TBL     60.26  54.35   AUG   60.00  60.00   4.75    6.70    Open?

Special Tuesday Note: Timberland (NYSE:TBL) traded near a credit
of $6.70 for the bearish portion of the straddle on Monday, thus
providing a favorable "early-exit" opportunity in the position.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW POSITIONS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This following group of plays is simply a list of candidates to
supplement your search for profitable trading positions.  As with
any new investment, you must decide if the selections meet your
criteria for potential plays.  Only you can know what strategies
are suitable for your personal skill level, risk-reward tolerance
and portfolio outlook.  In addition, we recommend that you avoid
any trading techniques in which you are not completely comfortable
with the potential capital loss, the necessary adjustments, and
the common entry-exit strategies.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BULLISH PLAYS - CREDIT SPREADS

These candidates are based on the underlying issue's technical
history or trend.  The probability of profit in these positions
may also be higher than other plays in the same strategy, due to
small disparities in option pricing however, each play should be
evaluated for portfolio suitability and reviewed with regard to
your strategic approach and trading style.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BSTE - Biosite  $44.14  *** Back In A Comfort Zone? ***

Biosite (NASDAQ:BSTE) is a provider of medical diagnostics that
aid a physician to diagnose diseases and health conditions.  The
firm provides tests for drug screening, heart attack, congestive
heart failure (CHF), acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and certain
bacterial and parasitic infections.  Its commercialized products
include Triage MeterPlus, Triage BNP Test, Triage Cardiac Panel,
Triage Cardio ProfilER, Triage Drugs of Abuse and Triage
Microbiology Panels.

BSTE - Biosite  $44.14

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  SEP-35.00  BQS-UG  OI=22   ASK=$0.35
SELL PUT  SEP-40.00  BQS-UH  OI=290  BID=$0.85
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.55-$0.60
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=12% B/E=$39.45


__________________________________________________________________

ISCA - International Speedway  $53.40  *** A Speedy Stock! ***

International Speedway Corporation (NASDAQ:ISCA) is a promoter
of motorsports entertainment activities in the United States.
It owns and/or operates 12 motorsports facilities and holds a
37.5% indirect equity interest in Raceway Associates, which owns
and operates the Chicagoland Speedway and Route 66 Raceway in
Illinois.  The company also owns and operates the Motor Racing
Network, an independent motorsports radio network, and DAYTONA
USA: The Ultimate Motorsports Attraction.

ISCA - International Speedway  $53.40

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  SEP-45.00  QWY-UI  OI=240  ASK=$0.25
SELL PUT  SEP-50.00  QWY-UJ  OI=675  BID=$0.65
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.45-$0.55
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=9% B/E=$49.55



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BEARISH PLAYS - CREDIT SPREADS

All of these positions are favorable candidates for "bear-call"
credit spreads, based on the current price or trading range of
the underlying issue and its recent technical history or trend.
The probability of profit from these positions may be higher
than other plays in the same strategy, due to disparities in
option pricing.  However, current news and market sentiment will
have an effect on these issues, so review each play individually
and make your own decision about its future outcome.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

KMRT - Kmart  $64.40  *** Profit-Taking Underway! ***

Kmart Corporation (NASDAQ:KMRT) is a discount retailer operating
through 1,511 Kmart stores and Supercenters in 49 states, Puerto
Rico, the United States Virgin Islands and Guam, and through an
e-commerce shopping site, www.kmart.com.  Its Kmart Supercenters
combine a full grocery, deli and bakery, along with the general
merchandise selection of a Kmart discount store.  The brands the
company markets include Martha Stewart, JOE BOXER, Jaclyn Smith,
Sesame Street and Thalia Sodi, among others.

KMRT - Kmart  $64.40

PLAY (less conservative - bearish/credit spread):

BUY  CALL  SEP-80.00  KTQ-IP  OI=1442  ASK=$0.95
SELL CALL  SEP-75.00  KTQ-IO  OI=2490  BID=$1.60
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.70-$0.75
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=16% B/E=$75.70


__________________________________________________________________

VIP - Vimpel Communications  $85.00  *** Premium-Selling Only! ***

Vimpel Communications (NYSE:VIP) is an established provider of
telecommunications services in Russia, operating under the Bee
Line family of brand names.  VimpelCom's license portfolio covers
much of Russia's population including the City of Moscow and the
Moscow Region.  VimpelCom introduced two digital communications
standards to Russia and built a dual band GSM-900/1800 cellular
network.  The company also led the development and emergence of
the mass consumer market for wireless communications in Russia by
introducing a prepaid product solution.  VimpelCom offers various
technologies, such as wireless application protocol and BeeOnline,
a multi-access web portal that provides a multitude of wireless
information and entertainment services, including location-based
features.

VIP - Vimpel Communications  $85.00

PLAY (conservative - bearish/credit spread):

BUY  CALL  SEP-100.00  VIP-IT  OI=351  ASK=$0.75
SELL CALL  SEP-95.00   VIP-IS  OI=157  BID=$1.25
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.55-$0.60
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=12% B/E=$95.55



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STRADDLES AND STRANGLES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Based on analysis of the historical option pricing and technical
background, these positions meet the fundamental criteria for
favorable volatility-based plays.
__________________________________________________________________

No straddles or strangles today...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SEE DISCLAIMER - SECTION 1

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


*****************************************
PREMIUM-SELLING PLAYS: NAKED PUTS & CALLS
*****************************************

All of these issues have robust option premiums and favorable
technical indications.  However, current news and events as
well as market sentiment, will have an effect on these stocks
so review each position thoroughly and make your own decision
about its outcome.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SUMMARY OF CURRENT POSITIONS - AS OF 08/08/04
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The following summary is a reasonable account of the positions
previously offered in this section.  However, no representation
is being made as to the actual performance of a position and in
fact, there are frequently large differences between the summary
results and those of our subscribers, due to the variety of ways
in which each play can be opened, closed, and/or adjusted.  In
addition, the summary might not be completely representative of
the manner in which the average trader would react to changing
conditions in a position and to the options market in general.
The editor of this section does not take actual positions in any
published plays and the summary comments are simply a service to
help new traders understand when positions might be opened and
closed.  In most cases, actions taken based on the commentary
would be far too late to be effective, thus it is not intended
as a substitute for personal trade management nor does it in
any way replace your duty to diligently monitor and manage the
positions in your portfolio.


MONTHLY YIELD FOR UNCOVERED OPTIONS: MAXIMUM & SIMPLE

The Maximum Yield (listed in the summary and with "naked" option
selling plays) is the greatest possible profit available in the
position.  This amount, expressed as a percentage, is based on
the initial margin requirement as determined by the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. options markets and
other self-regulatory organizations.  Although increased margin
requirements may be imposed either generally or in individual
cases by various brokerage firms, our calculations use the widely
accepted margin formulas from the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The "Simple Yield" is based on the cost of the underlying issue
(in the event of assignment), including the premium from the sold
option, thus it reflects the maximum potential loss in the trade.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NAKED PUTS

Stock   Strike  Strike  Cost   Current   Gain    Max    Simple
Symbol  Month   Price   Basis   Price   (Loss)  Yield   Yield

NFI      AUG    30.00   29.20   40.67    0.80   5.99%    2.74%
NVTL     AUG    20.00   19.50   19.17   (0.33)  0.00%    0.00%
PETD     AUG    25.00   24.35   27.65    0.65   4.86%    2.67%
CRDN     JUL    35.00   34.55   32.58   (1.97)  0.00%    0.00%
CRDN     JUL    35.00   34.70   32.58   (2.12)  0.00%    0.00%
NFI      AUG    30.00   29.40   40.67    0.60   4.68%    2.04%
NVTL     AUG    20.00   19.50   19.17   (0.33)  0.00%    0.00%
EYET     AUG    35.00   34.45   33.80   (0.65)  0.00%    0.00%
FRO      AUG    30.00   29.30   34.48    0.70   4.97%    2.39%
GIVN     AUG    30.00   29.45   33.65    0.55   4.21%    1.87%
ATI      AUG    15.00   14.50   16.62    0.50   7.89%    3.45%
BEIQ     AUG    25.00   24.00   24.42    0.42   3.20%    4.17%
AMHC     AUG    25.00   24.25   26.02    0.75   5.98%    3.09%
VTS      AUG    22.50   21.85   22.33    0.48   4.23%    2.97%
OSTK     AUG    30.00   29.40   29.14   (0.26)  0.00%    0.00%
ATI      AUG    15.00   14.75   16.62    0.25   4.68%    1.69%
EYET     AUG    30.00   29.55   33.80    0.45   3.85%    1.52%
CTSH     AUG    22.50   22.05   24.75    0.45   4.61%    2.04%
FARO     AUG    20.00   19.65   19.48   (0.17)  0.00%    0.00%
STLD     AUG    30.00   29.60   29.05   (0.55)  0.00%    0.00%
SRDX     AUG    20.00   19.50   23.36    0.50   7.27%    2.56%
NFI      AUG    35.00   33.85   40.67    1.15   9.90%    3.40%
ISG      AUG    30.00   29.05   29.35    0.30   2.40%    3.27%
LCAV     AUG    25.00   24.35   22.53   (1.82)  0.00%    0.00%
DHB      AUG    12.50   12.15   13.50    0.35   8.54%    2.88%
MSO      AUG    10.00   9.65    10.64    0.35   9.88%    3.63%
EENC     AUG    12.50   12.25   13.56    0.25   4.83%    2.04%
IDCC     AUG    17.50   17.05   17.44    0.39   5.83%    2.64%
NFI      AUG    35.00   34.25   40.67    0.75   7.63%    2.19%
LCAV     AUG    25.00   24.75   22.53   (2.22)  0.00%    0.00%
CERN     AUG    35.00   34.35   44.94    0.65   6.54%    1.89%
VLCCF    AUG    25.00   24.35   25.00    0.65   8.65%    2.67%
KRON     AUG    40.00   39.40   40.40    0.60   6.74%    1.52%
CRK      AUG    20.00   19.75   18.03   (1.72)  0.00%    0.00%
UTHR     AUG    22.50   22.20   29.84    0.30   6.05%    1.35%
CYTC     AUG    22.50   22.10   23.00    0.40   7.64%    1.81%
TOY      AUG    15.00   14.75   16.02    0.25   7.45%    1.69%
IDCC     AUG    17.50   17.20   17.44    0.24   6.14%    1.74%
KYPH     AUG    25.00   24.50   27.71    0.50   8.62%    2.04%
TOY      AUG    15.00   14.75   16.02    0.25   8.30%    1.69%
KIND     AUG    22.50   22.10   25.17    0.40   8.57%    1.81%
ODSY     AUG    17.50   17.25   17.85    0.25   6.78%    1.45%
NFI      AUG    30.00   29.55   40.67    0.45   9.02%    1.52%
KYPH     AUG    25.00   24.35   27.71    0.65  12.55%    2.67%
BR       AUG    37.50   37.10   35.14   (1.96)  0.00%    0.00%
KWK      AUG    30.00   29.35   26.95   (2.40)  0.00%    0.00%
AH       AUG    35.00   34.60   34.60    0.00   0.00%    0.00%

Ceradyne (NASDAQ:CRDN) was Friday's "big" loser, down nearly
10%, despite a lack of negative news.  A small rebound early
in the session helped traders escape with minimal losses, but
the uptrend certainly appears to have come to an end.  The
most obvious stocks on the "early-exit" list are: BR, CRDN,
CRK, EYET, FARO, LCAV, NVTL, OSTK, STLD and VLCCF.  A long
list of positions; ARXX, BLUD, CACS, CBST, ELN, ERES, ESIO,
GPRO, KWK, JCOM, JNPR, MGAM, TECH, and TASR, have previously
been closed to limit potential losses.

NAKED CALLS
Stock   Strike  Strike  Break  Current   Gain    Max    Simple
Symbol  Month   Price   Even    Price   (Loss)  Yield   Yield

SLAB     AUG    50.00   51.00   32.72    1.00   5.30%   1.96%
SINA     AUG    40.00   40.85   24.12    0.85   7.85%   2.08%
ATRS     AUG    30.00   30.85   24.12    0.85   6.52%   2.76%
MRVL     AUG    27.50   27.85   22.61    0.35   3.98%   1.26%
MACR     AUG    25.00   25.40   18.89    0.40   4.55%   1.57%
ISIL     AUG    20.00   20.45   17.14    0.45   5.72%   2.20%
ELAB     AUG    45.00   45.00   27.49    0.00   0.00%   0.00%
FLML     AUG    25.00   25.50   16.86    0.50   8.15%   1.96%
OTEX     AUG    30.00   30.65   21.79    0.65   6.12%   2.12%
TELK     AUG    25.00   25.45   16.05    0.45   5.60%   1.77%
ASKJ     AUG    40.00   40.50   24.48    0.50   5.97%   1.23%
DRIV     AUG    30.00   30.85   24.86    0.85   7.92%   2.76%
SINA     AUG    35.00   35.45   24.12    0.45   6.42%   1.27%
BSX      AUG    40.00   40.50   33.21    0.50   3.58%   1.23%
ICUI     AUG    30.00   30.80   27.52    0.80   8.64%   2.60%
WMGI     AUG    35.00   35.65   24.90    0.65   5.46%   1.82%
LSCP     AUG    30.00   30.70   15.60    0.70  11.15%   2.28%
ERICY    AUG    30.00   30.65   25.41    0.65   8.01%   2.12%
NTES     AUG    40.00   40.45   31.92    0.45   6.31%   1.11%
SPW      AUG    45.00   45.40   36.65    0.40   5.03%   0.88%
ACDO     AUG    35.00   35.00   26.44    0.00   0.00%   0.00%
ULBI     AUG    17.50   17.50   13.50    0.00   0.00%   0.00%
MXIM     AUG    50.00   50.45   44.23    0.45   5.06%   0.89%
YHOO     AUG    32.50   32.70   26.02    0.20   4.20%   0.61%
MRVL     AUG    25.00   25.30   22.61    0.30   8.23%   1.19%

There was no viable position in Eon Labs (NASDAQ:ELAB), Accredo
Health (NASDAQ:ACDO) or Ultralife Batteries (NASDAQ:ULBI), due
to "gap-down" trading activity after those plays were listed.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW POSITIONS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This following group of plays is simply a list of candidates to
supplement your search for profitable trading positions.  As with
any new investment, you must decide if the selections meet your
criteria for potential plays.  Only you can know what strategies
are suitable for your personal skill level, risk-reward tolerance
and portfolio outlook.  In addition, we recommend that you avoid
any trading techniques in which you are not completely comfortable
with the potential capital loss, the necessary adjustments, and
the common entry-exit strategies.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WARNING: THE RISK IN SELLING UNCOVERED OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL!

The sale of uncovered puts entails considerable financial risk,
far more than the initial margin or collateral required to open
a position.  The maximum financial obligation for the sale of a
naked put is the strike price (of the underlying stock) that is
sold.  Although this obligation is reduced by the premium from
the sale of the option, a writer of puts should have the cash or
collateral equivalent of the sold strike price in reserve at all
times.  In addition, there is one very important rule when using
this strategy: Don't sell puts on stocks that you don't want to
own!  Why?  Because stocks occasionally experience catastrophic
declines, exponentially increasing the margin maintenance and
possibly causing a devastating shortfall in your portfolio.  It
is also important that you consider using trading stops on naked
option positions to help limit losses when a stock's price falls.
Many professional traders suggest closing the position when the
underlying share value moves below the sold strike, or using a
"buy-to-close" stop order at a price that is no more than twice
the original premium received from the sold option.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NEW NAKED-PUT CANDIDATES

Stock  Last    Option    Option Last Open Cost  Days Simple Max
Symbol Price   Series    Symbol Bid  Int. Basis Exp. Yield Yield

ESLT   21.59  SEP 20.00  EQX-UD 0.80    0 19.20  39   3.2%  8.0%
TOY    16.40  SEP 15.00  TOY-UC 0.55 10k+ 14.45  39   3.0%  7.5%
ACF    20.97  SEP 20.00  ACF-UD 0.75  175 19.25  39   3.0%  7.2%
CNCT   26.72  SEP 25.00  UXU-UE 0.90 1055 24.10  39   2.9%  7.1%
ECLP   13.97  SEP 12.50  IQV-UV 0.40 2329 12.10  39   2.6%  6.9%
OMM    13.51  SEP 12.50  OMM-UV 0.40  205 12.10  39   2.6%  6.5%
PLMO   39.72  SEP 30.00  UPY-UF 0.55  950 29.45  39   1.5%  5.1%
ION    26.90  SEP 25.00  ION-UE 0.50    4 24.50  39   1.6%  4.2%
KYPH   28.51  SEP 25.00  QYQ-UE 0.40  313 24.60  39   1.3%  3.8%

Abbreviations:

LB-Last Bid price, OI-Open Interest, CB-Cost Basis or break-even
point, DE-Days to Expiry, SY-Simple Yield (monthly basis without
margin), MY-Maximum Yield (monthly basis with margin), TS-Target
Shoot.

__________________________________________________________________

ESLT - Elbit Systems  $21.59  *** Volatility = Premium! ***

Elbit Systems (NASDAQ:ESLT) develops, manufactures and integrates
defense electronic and electro-optic systems for customers around
the world.  The company focuses on designing, developing, making
and integrating command and control, communication, computer,
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems for defense
and homeland security applications.  The company also performs
upgrade programs for airborne, land and naval defense platforms,
often as a prime contractor.

ESLT - Elbit Systems  $21.59

SEP 20.00 EQX-UD LB=0.80 OI=0 CB=19.20 DE=39 TY=3.2% MY=8.0%


__________________________________________________________________

TOY - Toys R Us  $16.40  *** Entry Point? ***

Toys R Us (NYSE:TOY) is a retailer of toys, baby products and
children's apparel.  As of January 31, 2004, the firm operated
1,501 retail stores worldwide.  These consisted of 927 locations
in the United States, 685 toy stores (including four Geoffrey
stores), 198 specialty baby-juvenile stores; Babies R Us, and 44
children's clothing stores under the name Kids R Us.  Toys R Us
also sells merchandise on its Internet sites: www.toysrus.com,
www.babiesrus.com, www.imaginarium.com, www.sportsrus.com and
www.personalizedbyrus.com.

TOY - Toys R Us  $16.40

SEP 15.00 TOY-UC LB=0.55 OI=10841 CB=14.45 DE=39 TY=3.0% MY=7.5%


__________________________________________________________________

ACF - AmeriCredit  $20.97  *** Rally Mode! ***

AmeriCredit (NYSE:ACF) is a consumer finance firm specializing
in purchasing retail automobile installment sales contracts
originated by franchised and select independent dealers in
connection with the sale of used and new automobiles.  The
company generates revenue and cash flows primarily through the
purchase, retention, subsequent securitization and servicing
of finance receivables.  To fund the purchase of receivables
prior to securitization, AmeriCredit uses borrowings under its
warehouse credit facilities.  The company earns finance charge
income on the finance receivables and pays interest expense on
borrowings under its warehouse credit facilities.

SEP 20.00 ACF-UD LB=0.75 OI=175 CB=19.25 DE=39 TY=3.0% MY=7.2%


__________________________________________________________________

CNCT - Connetics  $26.72  *** Bullish Profit Outlook! ***

Connetics Corporation (NASDAQ:CNCT) is a specialty pharmaceutical
company focusing exclusively on the treatment of dermatological
conditions.  It markets two pharmaceutical products: OLUX Foam
and Luxmq Foam.  On February 9, 2004, the company announced that
it had entered into a binding purchase agreement with Roche to
acquire exclusive U.S. rights to Soriatane-brand acitretin, an
approved oral medicine for the treatment of severe psoriasis in
adults.  Soriatane, a once-a-day oral retinoid approved in the
United States, is used for the treatment of severe psoriasis in
adults.

CNCT - Connetics  $26.72

SEP 25.00 UXU-UE LB=0.90 OI=1055 CB=24.10 DE=39 TY=2.9% MY=7.1%


__________________________________________________________________

ECLP - Eclipsys  $13.97  *** In A Trading Range? ***

Eclipsys Corporation (NASDAQ:ECLP) is a healthcare information
technology firm that develops and licenses proprietary software
to hospitals.  The company's software allows them to automate
the key clinical, administrative and financial functions that
they require.  Eclipsys' software is designed to improve patient
care and patient satisfaction for its customers and allow them
to reduce their operating costs.  Among other things, its unique
software enables physicians and nurses to check on a patient's
condition, order patient tests, review test results, monitor a
patient's medications and provide alerts to various changes in
a patient's condition.

SEP 12.50 IQV-UV LB=0.40 OI=2329 CB=12.10 DE=39 TY=2.6% MY=6.9%


__________________________________________________________________

OMM - OMI Corporation  $13.51  *** Strong Sector! ***

OMI Corporation (NYSE:OMM) is a sea-borne transporter of crude
oil and refined petroleum products operating in the international
shipping markets.  The company concentrates its vessels into two
core categories: Suezmax tankers and petroleum product carriers.
OMI's fleet consists of product carriers which transport refined
petroleum products from refinery locations to consuming locations,
and crude oil tankers which transport oil from production and
storage locations to refinery locations.  The company's product
carriers are small and mid-sized tankers such as handysizes,
handymaxes and Panamaxes.

SEP 12.50 OMM-UV LB=0.40 OI=205 CB=12.10 DE=39 TY=2.6% MY=6.5%


__________________________________________________________________

PLMO - palmOne  $39.72  *** Premium-Selling Only! ***

palmOne (NASDAQ:PLMO), formerly Palm, develops, designs and sells
Palm-branded, hand-held devices, accessories and the operating
system Palm OS.  The company was historically organized into two
operating segments: the Solutions Group and PalmSource.  Now the
Solutions Group develops and markets hand-held devices and other
accessories to provide the user with a simple, elegant and useful
productivity tool.  PalmSource developed and licensed the Palm OS
and related software, which is referred to as the Palm platform.
The Palm platform is the foundation for Palm devices, as well as
for devices manufactured by other third-party licensees.

PLMO - palmOne  $39.72

SEP 30.00 UPY-UF LB=0.55 OI=950 CB=29.45 DE=39 TY=1.5% MY=5.1%


__________________________________________________________________

ION - Ionics  $26.90  *** Bottom Fishing...In Wastewater? ***

Ionics (NYSE:ION) is a global supplier of water purification and
wastewater treatment equipment and services.  Their products and
services are used to desalt brackish water and seawater, treat,
recycle and reclaim process water and waste water, treat water
for residential and commercial applications, manufacture and
supply disinfection chemicals and process food products.  Ionics
also supplies zero liquid discharge systems and ultrapure water
systems for the power and microelectronics industries as well as
measures and analyzes water impurities.

ION - Ionics  $26.90

SEP 25.00 ION-UE LB=0.50 OI=4 CB=24.50 DE=39 TY=1.6% MY=4.2%


__________________________________________________________________

KYPH - Kyphon  $28.51  *** Next Leg Up? ***

Kyphon (NASDAQ:KYPH) develops medical devices to restore spinal
anatomy using minimally invasive technology.  The firm's initial
marketing focus is on surgeons who repair spine fractures caused
by osteoporosis.  Kyphon's first commercial products, comprising
its KyphX instruments, utilize its proprietary balloon technology.
Surgeons use those tools to help repair fractures during minimally
invasive spine surgeries.  Its instruments have also been used in
open surgical procedures.  The firm sells various instruments for
use in spine fracture procedures including: Bone Access Systems,
Inflatable Bone Tamps, Inflation Syringes, Bone Filler Devices
and Bone Biopsy Devices.  Quarterly earnings are due on 8/4.

KYPH - Kyphon  $28.51

SEP 25.00 QYQ-UE LB=0.40 OI=313 CB=24.60 DE=39 TY=1.3% MY=3.8% TS



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BEARISH PLAYS - NAKED CALLS

Based on analysis of option pricing and the underlying stock's
technical background, these positions meet our fundamental
criteria for bearish "premium-selling" strategies.  Each issue
has robust option premiums, a well-defined resistance area and
a high probability of remaining below the target strike prices.
As with any recommendations, these positions should be carefully
evaluated for portfolio suitability and reviewed with regard to
your strategic approach and personal trading style.

WARNING: THE RISK IN SELLING UNCOVERED OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL!

The sale of uncovered calls entails considerable financial risk,
far more than the initial margin or collateral required to open
the position.  The maximum financial obligation for the sale of a
naked option is the strike price (of the underlying stock) that
is sold.  Although this obligation is reduced by the premium from
the sale of the option, a writer of options must have the cash or
collateral equivalent of the sold strike price in reserve at all
times.  The simple fact is: stocks often experience large price
swings, exponentially increasing the margin maintenance and very
possibly causing a devastating shortfall in your portfolio.  It
is also important that you consider using trading stops on naked
option positions to help limit losses when a stock price moves in
a volatile manner.  Many professional traders suggest closing the
position when the underlying share value moves beyond the sold
strike, or using a "buy-to-close" stop order at a price that is
no more than twice the original premium received from the sold
option.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BDY - Bradley Pharmaceuticals  $22.95  *** Range-bound? ***

Bradley Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BDY) is a pharmaceutical firm
that acquires, develops and sells over-the-counter products and
prescription drugs in select markets.  The company's subsidiary,
Doak Dermatologics, promotes its core branded dermatologic and
podiatric products including Bradley Pharmaceuticals' Carmol40,
Lidamantle, Rosula and Zoderm product lines, to dermatologists
and podiatrists.  Its Kenwood Therapeutics division promotes
the company's core branded gastrointestinal products including
Anamantle HC, Pamine, Pamine Forte and Flora-Q, primarily to
gastroenterologists and colon and rectal surgeons, and, to a
lesser extent, it also markets nutritional supplements and
respiratory products.

BDY - Bradley Pharmaceuticals  $22.95

PLAY (sell naked call):

Action     Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd      Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL CALL  SEP 25    BDY-IE    214    0.75  25.75   7.4%   2.9%


_________________________________________________________________

DRIV - Digital River  $24.43  *** Next Leg Down? ***

Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV) is a provider of electronic commerce
outsourcing solutions.  As an application service provider, the
company enables its clients to access its proprietary electronic
commerce system over the Internet.  The firm's hi-tech platform
allows it to provide a suite of electronic commerce services,
including Web commerce development and hosting, transaction
processing, fraud screening, digital delivery, integration to
physical fulfillment and customer service.  Digital River also
provides analytical marketing and merchandising services to
assist clients in increasing Web page view traffic to, and sales
through, their Web commerce systems.

DRIV - Digital River  $24.43

PLAY (sell naked call):

Action     Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd      Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL CALL  SEP 30    DQI-IF    767    0.30  30.30   4.5%   1.0%


_________________________________________________________________

SINA - SINA Corporation  $21.64  *** New Multi-Year Low! ***

SINA Corporation (NASDAQ:SINA), formerly known as SINA.com, is an
online media company and value-added information service provider
for China and the global Chinese communities.  With a branded
network of localized Websites targeting China and overseas Chinese,
the company provides an array of services to its users including
region-focused online portals, search, directory, interest-based
and community-building channels, free and premium e-mail, wireless
short messaging, online games, virtual Internet service provider,
classified listings, e-commerce, e-learning, and enterprise
e-solutions.  In turn, SINA generates revenue through advertising,
fee-based services, e-commerce and enterprise services.

SINA - SINA Corporation  $21.64

PLAY (sell naked call):

Action     Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd      Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL CALL  SEP 30    NOQ-IF    7679   0.35  30.35   5.8%   1.2%



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SEE DISCLAIMER - SECTION 1

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


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