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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 09/20/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 09-20-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Naz Pulled up by the SOX 
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Chips lone bright spot ahead of Fed 


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
      09-20-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10204.89 - 79.57 10283.87 10187.19 1.46 bln 1078/1705
NASDAQ   1908.07 -  2.02  1921.50  1900.24 1.55 bln 1239/1765
S&P 100   541.93 -  3.87   545.80   541.08   Totals 2317/3470
S&P 500  1122.20 -  6.35  1128.55  1120.34
SOX       399.90 + 11.40   404.55   384.80
RUS 2000  570.74 -  2.43   573.97   569.86
DJ TRANS 3242.33 - 15.06  3259.17  3239.23
VIX        14.43 +  0.40    15.29    13.98
VXO (VIX-O)13.78 +  0.23    14.69    13.78
VXN        20.56 +  0.43    21.49    20.02
Total Volume 3,016M
Total UpVol  1,326M
Total DnVol  1,582M
Total Adv  2317
Total Dcl  3470
52wk Highs  203 
52wk Lows    54
TRIN       0.78
PUT/CALL   0.92 
*******************************************************************

Naz Pulled up by the SOX
Jonathan Levinson

The Nasdaq tested last week's highs, following the SOX which 
closed higher by 2.93% and broke week's high on a closing basis.  
The Nasdaq failed to hold its gains, closing fractionally 
negative at 1908, while the Dow and SPX remained in negative 
territory for the duration and closed lower by .77% and .56% 
respectively.  The Dow's loss was notable alongside the Nasdaq 
and SOX strength, with the Dow breaking and closing below last 
week's lows.


Weekly Dow Chart


The weekly charts provide the most bullish view of the markets at 
current levels, with the bullish divergent buy signals still in 
place on both the Dow and Nasdaq despite their inability to break 
the descending weekly resistance lines.  The Dow's loss today 
kicked off this week's weekly candle below 10300 trendline 
resistance, with an intraday high of 10284.  The weekly cycle 
oscillators remained on buy signals, but the indicators undrew 
part of the uptick that was showing as of last Friday.

The 10300-10350 level is shaping up as the key battleground 
between bulls and bears.  The current descending channel has been 
confounding bulls and bears all year- it's either a complex top 
at a low high, or the bull flag off the rim of a bullish cup and 
handle formation.  A break above 10300-10350 on a weekly closing 
basis would rule strongly in the latter's favor, while a failure 
from here will set up a tense retest of 9900 and ultimately 9700 
support.  The weekly cycle oscillator upturns are quite bullish 
here, but even the 10-week stochastics lag the action 
considerably and are only reflecting the recent gains.  Bulls 
need to break the 10300-10350 line in order to confirm the new 
weekly upphase, while a rollover from and a move below 10150 
support should be enough to whipsaw the upphase back down.


Daily Dow Chart


The Dow daily is the most bearish of the bunch today, with 
today's decline leading its peers to the downside and breaking 
below last week's lows on a closing basis.  Bulls are eyeing the 
support to 10180, being the lower descending trendline support 
level under what appears to be a bull flag.  While the daily 
cycle oscillators are in a clear downphase, that downphase will 
require that the 10180 level break this week.  A bounce from here 
would target the 10300 on the way to a test of 10350 and 
descending resistance at 10380 on this chart.  A move above 10300 
on a daily closing basis would most likely stall or abort the 
daily cycle downphase currently in progress.


Weekly Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq was a tower of power for much of today's session, 
benefiting from sector upgrades from Sanford Bernstein and RBC 
Capital Markets for the SOX which led the charge to the upside.  
The Nasdaq ran to the upper weekly descending resistance line and 
Fibonacci resistance at its session high of 1922 before falling 
back to the 1900-1910 range.

The weekly Nasdaq chart looks more bullish than that of the Dow 
in some respects, with clearer buy signals from more oversold 
levels on the oscillators.  The run up from the lower channel 
support line was steeper and the price action on this week's one-
day-old candle is more insistent, with price pushing today at the 
upper descending resistance line.  On the other hand, the bullish 
stochastic divergence on the Dow is absent here, and the selling 
in the early summer was more violent on the Nasdaq than on the 
Dow.  In any event, 1920-25 resistance is the bull flag 
resistance level to break, analogous to the 10300-10350 Dow level 
discussed above.  Below 1890, next support is at the 1845 level.  
Below 1820, the weekly cycle buy signals should whipsaw.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


As on the Dow, the daily COMPQ chart is less bullish than that of 
the weekly. Today's failure at 1922 left a tall upper doji 
shadow, and the negative close near the opening lows left us with 
a bearish gravestone doji.  A failure to regain the highs 
tomorrow will result in further weakness in the daily cycle 
oscillators, but bears need to see the 1890-1900 level taken out 
in order to damage the still-intact rising channel off the summer 
lows.  Last week's sideways range continues to look like 
consolidation above 1900, but below 1890, there's little support 
to the 1870-75 level.


Daily Nasdaq Price/Volatility ratio chart


The Nasdaq volatility index (VXN) rose .43 today to close at 
20.56, rising alongside price at various points throughout the 
session.  Over the years, many analysts, myself included, have 
noted the inverse correlation between volatility and price.  
"When the VIX is high, it's time to buy- when it's low, it's time 
to go."  The VXN is the Nasdaq's VIX, and we've been noting 
extremely low relative readings in recent months.  The trouble is 
in knowing how low is "low", and for this purpose, I prefer to 
watch ratio charts between the Nasdaq's underlying price and its 
volatility index.  The COMPQ:VXN chart above follows this 
relationship, and the oscillators follow the turns.  The ratio 
fell today, losing 2.08- that level is insignificant, except that 
the oscillators are oversold and verging on a turn lower.  A 
downleg in the ratio suggests that the Nasdaq's price will 
decline relative to the VXN.  I'll be following this tomorrow in 
the Market Monitor, but another up day for the VXN / down day for 
the Nasdaq should kick off a new downleg for this ratio- a 
bearish outcome for the Naz.


Weekly TNX Chart


Bonds rose strongly today, ahead of the FOMC announcement 
scheduled for 2:15PM tomorrow.  Ten year note yields (TNX) fell 
6.9 bps to close at 4.058% in a 1.67% decline for the day.  The 
move reversed all of Friday's gain in the TNX / decline in ten 
year bond and retested last week's TNX lows, the current lows for 
the move that commenced in June.  A break below current levels 
sets up a retest of lower channel support and old confluence 
close below at 4%.  

Treasury Secretary John Snow spoke in front of the National Press 
Club today, reiterating his optimistic view of the economic 
recovery in the US.  He cited the creation of 1.7M jobs in the 
past 12 months as evidence of better times to come.  He added 
that the President remains committed to cutting the federal 
deficit in half by the end of a second term should he be 
reelected.  The IMF's managing director Rodrigo Rato touched on 
these themes as well, saying that the US should seize the moment 
to begin reducing both its fiscal and balance of trades deficits.  
Addressing the Council of Foreign Relations in New York, Rato 
said, "This relatively benign global outlook provides an 
important window of opportunity for further progress in 
addressing global imbalances and reinforcing the basis for more 
balanced and sustainable global growth."  

In other news, the National Association of Home Builders 
announced that its housing index fell from 71 in August to 68 in 
September to July's levels.  The Wall Street Journal reported 
news of a report due to be released by the Office of Federal 
Housing Enterprise Oversight that will allegedly reveal evidence 
of FNM's executives decisions to manipulate earnings.  FNM closed 
lower by 1.59% at 75.98.


Weekly chart of Crude oil



Crude oil marched higher today on news of Russian YUKOS' 
suspension of 100,000 bpd worth of oil exports to China, closing 
higher by 70 cents or 1.54% at 46.30.  The financial press also 
noted that Hurricane Ivan has disrupted an estimated 1.2M bpd's 
worth of production in the Gulf of Mexico.  However, the YUKOS 
story received the most attention, as the suspension of rail 
deliveries to China constitutes the first supply disruptions 
arising from its ongoing financial woes.  The company has been 
warning of such risks in the wake of bank account seizures 
pursuant to the Russian government's efforts to recover more than 
7B in taxes from the company.  Analyst David Thurtell noted that 
"The YUKOS volume isn't much in the scheme of things but in 
today's market, which is as tight as a drum, it's crucial."

The move broke last week's high, closing above the 46 level and 
confirming the doji reversals from the lower rising channel on 
the past 3 tests over the past month.  While the bearish 
stochastic divergence continues, it will whipsaw to the upside on 
a return to the prior highs.  45.50-.75 is now support, and above 
the session high of 46.475 there's resistance at 46.75-47, 
following which the year highs will come into view above 48.


It was a quiet newsday, with no major economic reports released.  
In corporate news, CL was out with an earnings warning this AM, 
saying that Q3 and Q4 earnings will be light.  The company cited 
higher marketing costs that exceeded better-than-expected growth 
in unit volume and market share.  While consensus estimates were 
for earnings of .67 per share for Q3 and .68 for Q4, the company 
expects earnings from .57-.59.   CL got smoked for 11.23% to 
close at 48.23, -6.10, and the warning from the consumer products 
company helped keep the Dow and SPX in the red for the duration 
of the session.

PMCS also warned in the morning, reducing its Q3 revenue 
expectations from 86M to 71M-73M.  The company cited reduced 
demand for DSL equipment from Asian ISPs in Q2 2004.  Consensus 
estimates were for earnings of 89.2M.  PMCS, like the Nasdaq, 
managed to rise on the news, adding 39 cents or 4.12% to close at 
9.86 for the session.

After the bell, ADBE announced earnings for Q3 of 42 cents per 
share, beating estimates by 3 cents on sales of 403.7M. ADBE was 
up 3.86% at 50 as of this writing.  RHAT announced Q2 net income 
of 11.8M or 6 cents per share, beating estimates by 5 cents.   
RHAT was higher by 1.51% at 15.46 as of this writing.

For tomorrow, all eyes will be on the Fed's 2:15 rate 
announcement and it accompanying bias statement.  The bond market 
is poised for a breakout using last week's price high/yield low 
as the reference.  Strength in bonds today suggests that the Fed 
will emphasize the "disinflationary" risks facing the economy, 
which in the recent past has see declines in the dollar and 
rallies in all other asset classes.  As the intermarket 
relationships have been cloudier than usual, however, it's safer 
to follow the individual charts you're trading than to guess at 
an intermarket reaction to moves in the dollar.

The daily cycle in the Dow has rolled decisively to the downside, 
while the Nasdaq continues its bullish trending move.  Today's 
bearish gravestone doji suggests possible trouble tomorrow for 
Nasdaq bulls, but it will take a move below 1890-1900 to get the 
ball rolling.  The bullish cycle picture would have a corrective 
daily cycle downphase bottom at a higher low before resuming a 
renewed charge against descending bull flag resistance on the 
weekly charts.  Nasdaq bulls today were hoping to dispense with 
the downside altogether and get to the good part, which they 
nearly accomplished.  With the pending announcement at 2:15PM, 
there's the possibility that the market will try to bore us for 
the first part of the session and then make up for lost time in 
the final 2 hours. 


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Chips lone bright spot ahead of Fed

Stocks finished mixed to lower a day ahead of the Federal Open 
Market Committee's decision on interest rates, where an upgrade 
of the semiconductors had the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 399.90 
+2.93% today's lone percentage gainer, while disappointing 
comments from consumer products giant Colgate Palmolive (NYSE:CL) 
$48.23 -11.22% and Unilever (NYSE:UL) $33.22 -5.19% raised 
concerns about the global consumer.

U.S. Market Watch - 09/20/04 Close

 

Treasuries reversed Friday's losses and then some with yields 
back lower.  Despite the bid for Treasuries ahead of tomorrow's 
FOMC meeting, Fed funds futures still predict a nearly 100% 
chance of a 25 basis point hike tomorrow to 1.75%, and another 25 
basis point hike to 2.0% before year's end with December Fed 
Funds futures (ff04z) unchanged at 98.04 (100 - 98.04 = 1.96%).

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) - 5-point box

 

The oversold bounce in the SOX.X got further legs today after 
Bernstein Investment Research and Management upgraded the sector 
to "overweight," which has the unconventional 5-point box scale 
of the SOX.X giving a second double-top buy signal at 400 as 
demand starts to show some further outstripping of supply.  
Bullish divergence becomes evident as the SOX.X trades a LOWER 
price level than the Semiconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) from 
Dorsey/Wright and Associates, which as of Friday evening's 
reading was still "bull alert" status at 20.25% having risen 
0.63% on Friday.  It would currently take a sector bullish % 
reading of 34% for the sector to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

In mid-June, when the SOX.X was trading around 475, the 
Semiconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) had reversed up to "bull alert" 
status after a relative low reading of 18% to 32%, but reversed 
back lower to "bear confirmed" status at 26% in early July (red 
7).

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

My QCharts is missing Friday's bar, but early morning weakness, 
despite the Bernstein upgrade before the bell, found fractional 
morning weakness turning into sudden gains as buyers seemed eager 
to gobble up some chip stocks above the MONTHLY Pivot of 383.72 
after Friday's quarterly expiration.

Recent sector bounces have had the SOX.X gaining roughly 13% to 
14% from inflection lows, and the recent rebound to today's close 
from the recent September 8 low is just about 14%.

Sector bellwether Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $20.92 +1.6%, which traded 
a 52-week low on September 8 at $19.69, is up just 6.24% and not 
showing the bullish leadership I would think a sector bulls looks 
for from the sector bellwether.

Hedge funds may pick up on this by shorting a basket of 
semiconductors like the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $31.68 
+3.09%, while implementing long positions in Intel (INTC).  

NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

The QQQ dipped lower at the open, but found buyers just above our 
WEEKLY S1 where SOX.X strength helped build some mid-session 
gains for technology and have the QQQ making an impressive 
turnaround to trade a session high of $35.77.  But by the close, 
the QQQ went nowhere with index heavyweights Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $27.51 (unch), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) $38.38 -1.15% 
and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $20.92 +1.6%, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) 
$19.31 +0.78% and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) $91.36 -1.86% finishing 
mixed.

S&P 500 Index Chart - Daily Intervals

 

Gains among the semiconductors weren't enough to offset weakness 
among financials and from the opening tick, the SPX found sellers 
very close to the 1,125 strike and WEEKLY Pivot of 1,126.28.  
Regardless of what the Fed has said or done the past three 
meetings, the SPX has seen a gain that session.  

One thing we've noted in past Index Wraps is that when the SPX 
has broken back below its shorter-term 21-say SMA, which is 
currently rising at 1,113.60, that's been a negative trigger for 
some rather sharp and sudden declines.  As I see it, the rising 
200-day SMA, 21-day SMA and this week's WEEKLY S1 at 1,115.83 
become key near-term technical support.

Pivot Analysis Matrix - 

 

The QQQ and SOX.X were the only equity-based indices to see trade 
at their WEEKLY R1s, and without the financials as partially 
depicted by the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X), the SPX/OEX found 
sellers firm at the WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 09-20-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: AHC, PD, APOL, FFH, LXK, MMM 	
Dropped Calls: None 
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Biotech to Internet and more! 


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

AHC - call play -
  Strength in the oil sector sent AHC up 1.46 percent.
  The move pushed AHC up and through our initial profit 
  target at $85.00.  In the MarketMonitor this morning we
  suggested that short-term traders consider taking profits
  now.  We're doing the same here.  However, with the close
  over resistance at $85.00 we're willing to hold on to it and see
  if AHC can make it to $87-$88 before stalling.  
 
 
PD - call play -
  Stay cautious here.  PD was up strongly this morning but 
  the stock can not breakout over the $85.50-86.00 level
  and shares failed again today.
 
 
APOL - put play -
  APOL and rival CECO were both downgraded today and shares
  of APOL gapped lower.  The stock lost more than 3 percent on
  above average volume.   We are going to lower our stop loss to $80.51
 
 
FFH - put play -
  The troubled insurer is now down four days in a row and is
  testing round-number support at the $120 level.
 
 
LXK - put play -
  Be careful here.  LXK is bouncing again.  Shares are currently
  under resistance at $85.00 and its exponential 200-dma. 
 
 
MMM - put play -
  Good news!  The 80-point drop in the Industrials helped lead
  MMM to a 1.67 percent decline through technical support at 
  MMM's simple 40-dma and exponential 200-dma.


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Invitrogen - IVGN - close: 58.06 change: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: The BTK biotech index is trading near new four-
month highs but it's also looking pretty extended and overbought 
from its August lows.  IVGN is not so overbought but it has been 
up several days in a row.  Now IVGN is challenging the bottom of 
the gap down in July.   The top and bottom of a gap tend to act 
as both support and resistance depending on which direction the 
stock is approaching from.  Right now the $58.50-59.00 region 
should act as resistance for IVGN.  We thought it was interesting 
that IVGN experienced huge volume in the last couple of hours on 
Monday but the stock didn't move that much.  Yes it did push 
through and close over the $58.00 mark so that is a small victory 
for the bulls.  If you're bullish on IVGN look for a break into 
the gap and then target the top of the gap near $65.  Be careful.  
IVGN is arguably short-term overbought.

Chart=


---

Devon Energy - DVN - close: 71.08 change: +1.08

WHAT TO WATCH: The strength in oil on Monday has sent DVN to new 
all-time closing highs.  The minor breakout over $70.00 looks 
great but bulls need to see DVN over the $71.50 level.  More 
aggressive momentum traders can watch this stock for some follow 
through or consider a dip back to $70.00.  We would be cautious 
and use a stop just under $68.  The P&F chart is actually bearish 
but a move over $72.00 would produce a new buy signal.  

Chart=


---

Omnicom - OMC - close: 70.93 change: +0.74

WHAT TO WATCH: OMC could be making a run for it.  A run higher 
that is.  Last Friday the stock broke through technical 
resistance at its simple 40 and 50-dma's plus round-number 
resistance at the $70.00 mark.  OMC is seeing some follow through 
on last week's breakout with strong volume on today's gain.  
There is some resistance near $72.50 but this could be an entry 
point to ride OMC toward the $75 level.  Unfortunately, it's 
going to take a move over $73.00 before its P&F chart reverses 
into a new "buy" signal. 

Chart=


---

InfoSpace - INSP - close: 46.26 change: +1.87

WHAT TO WATCH: INSP ignored the market's Monday malaise and 
climbed another 4.2 percent.  The stock has broken out above 
resistance at $46 to hit new highs not seen since early 2001.  
Volume was well above average today and the intraday chart 
suggests more strength tomorrow.  The inverse H&S pattern points 
to a $52-$53 price target.  We don't see any major resistance 
until the $55 region.  The P&F chart points to a $61 target.  
We'd like to consider longs but the stock looks overbought and 
extended here.  A bounce from $42.50 might be worth noting.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

TLM $24.54 +0.56 - TLM has been on a steady run from $11 in 
October 2002 to $24 this summer.  Now shares are breaking out 
over resistance at $24.50 to hit new all-time highs.

TZOO $71.68 -0.66 - The short-squeeze in TZOO paused today.  The 
stock dipped to $65.73 before buying pushed it back above $70.  
This stock won't run forever but there is no way of knowing if it 
peaks at $75 or $175.  FYI this was an $8 stock back in April.

POT $61.10 +1.05 - Yet another new all-time high.
 

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