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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 10/06/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 10-06-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Leaning into the Wind 
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Big test for BIG tech 


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
      10-06-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10239.92 + 62.24 10240.14 10157.99 1.77 bln 1913/ 859
NASDAQ   1971.03 + 15.53  1971.04  1947.24 1.92 bln 1877/1116
S&P 100   547.89 +  3.41   547.89   543.38   Totals 3790/1975
S&P 500  1142.05 +  7.57  1142.05  1132.94
SOX       406.20 +  1.62   406.22   398.84
RUS 2000  592.66 +  5.32   592.66   586.55
DJ TRANS 3388.72 + 53.12  3388.72  3334.44
VIX        13.28 -  0.67    14.10    13.24
VXO (VIX-O)13.00 -  0.27    14.18    12.91
VXN        19.77 -  0.25    20.53    19.74
Total Volume 3,697M
Total UpVol  2,652M
Total DnVol    979M
Total Adv  3790
Total Dcl  1975
52wk Highs  487 
52wk Lows    51
TRIN       0.64
PUT/CALL   0.78
******************************************************************

Leaning into the Wind
Linda Piazza

The market day didn't feel like one beset with heavy winds, but
that was because the indices' strength matched the strength of
those winds.  When the winds abated late in the day, indices
pitched forward. 

With hurricanes hitting the U.S. one after another during this
hurricane season, all have watched evening news programs showing
reporters leaning into wind-driven rain to deliver news about the
hurricanes' expected trajectories.  Wednesday morning, markets
appeared to be leaning into winds caused by record highs on crude
and warnings from AmerisourceBergen (ABC) and multiple tech
stocks.  Fannie Mae's Raines was scheduled to appear before a
U.S. House Panel Meeting to discuss the company's accounting
practices.

The stalwart TRAN, the Dow Jones Transportation Index, and the
weakened-but-attempting-to-recover DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home
Construction Index, leaned far into the wind Wednesday morning. 
They tried to buffer markets and tug the lagging techs and
healthcare stocks along with them.  Late in the day, Verizon (VZ)
and Computer Associates (CA) helped by giving positive capital
expenditure guidance (VZ) and raising expectations (CA).  Still,
it was the TRAN's performance that most buffered the effect of
those winds.  When the winds abated, the indices leaped forward.

Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN:

 

With Herculean effort the TRAN's performance and that of other
indices finally managed to tug the SOX higher in the last hour of
trading, although the SOX remains below its next breakout zone.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:

 

The SOX may not be playing the leadership role in tech gains that
it has in the past, however, and tech traders might look to the
GHA and GSO, two sectors performing more strongly of late, for
leadership either to the upside or downside.  They posted 1.35
and 1.25 percent gains, respectively, in Wednesday's trading. 
With their help and the reluctant help of the SOX, the Nasdaq
pushed above its 200-sma in late-day trading, although it remains
below 1975 potential resistance. 

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:

 

Those currently in bullish positions should make plans to protect
profits near 1975 and again near 2000.  Those seeking new bullish
positions should watch for retests and bounces from the 200-sma
and that 19.1 percent retracement level or wait for a breakout
over 2000.  Those seeking new bearish positions should watch for
a rollover beneath this week's low or wait for a potential
rollover beneath 2000.

Despite the TRAN's best efforts, it could not produce much of a
breakout on its sister index, the Dow.  Although the Dow did
break out of a bull flag on the 30-minute chart, it couldn't
break above Monday's high.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

 

The SPX did break above Monday's high.
 
Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:

 

The day's economic numbers began as usual with information
released by the Mortgage Bankers' Association at 7:00 EST.  Last
week's figures showed a 7.7 percent rise in refinancing activity,
with refinancing activity up a more modest 2.7 percent for this
reporting week.  New applications for home loans remained flat,
while the purchase index rose 2.2 percent.  The DJUSHB rose from
its 50-dma, closing 1.66 percent higher, but some consider that a
bounce was due after the recent drubbing this index received.
  
While the TRAN didn't wait around for the release of crude
inventories, the American Petroleum Institute was delayed in
releasing its figures, releasing them more than thirty minutes
later than the Department of Energy due to a glitch in the new
system the API has adopted to report those inventories.  The
API's figures differed as usual from the Department of Energy's. 
The API reported that crude stocks rose by 268,000 barrels, far
less than the DOE's report of a rise by 1.1 million barrels. 
Both came in well below the expectation for a rise of 2.75
million barrels.  Some thought that Hurricane Ivan's effect was
still being felt.  The hurricane damaged several oil rigs in the
Gulf of Mexico, and they may not be able to ramp up production to
meet the shortfall some anticipate.  

Crude hit the morning's $50.70 low as the release of the DOE's
figures approached, and then quickly soared to new record highs. 
Some also blamed worries about Nigeria and winter demand for the
higher prices.  Previous to the DOE's inventories announcement,
the Department of Energy had noted that U.S. petroleum demand was
expected to rise 1.9 percent this year.  The department
anticipated home heating oil prices would rise 29 percent this
winter.  The department also noted that an anticipated 1.5
percent increase in demand for natural gas would help drive
residential prices higher by an expected 11 percent, although
natural gas stocks were expected to reach a 14-year-high when
announced Thursday.  Electricity demand was expected to rise by
1.7 percent. 

The Dow Jones Transportation Index, the TRAN, often a fair
barometer of the market's reaction to rising crude costs, had
been driving higher before the release, but took a blow as the
inventories numbers were released.  That blow proved to be only
temporary, however, with the TRAN eventually closing 1.59 percent
higher, at levels not seen since the summer of 1999. 

The API reported distillate inventories falling by 286,000
barrels, with the DOE reporting a drop of 2.1 million barrels. 
API reported gasoline stocks declining 337,000 barrels with the
DOE reporting those inventories climbing by 600,000 barrels.
 
The U.S. House Panel Meeting on Fannie Mae's (FNM) accounting
issues opened today, adding to the ill winds as Armando Falcon
Jr., Director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, FNM's government regulator, testified that FNM chose
not to follow accounting rules.  FNM's CEO Raines denied that the
company managed earnings, and the CFO testified that generally
accepted accounting principles were met "at all times."

After the close, retailers began announcing September's same-
store sales reports, with those reports to continue Thursday
morning before the bell.  Hurricane winds impacted those reports,
at least according to MW, Men's Wearhouse.  Others avoided the
easy hurricane excuse.  Analysts in the sector commented that
retailers in regions impacted by the hurricanes showed the same
pattern as those elsewhere.  SBUX same-store sales disappointed. 
Big Lots Inc. (BLI) warned that Q3 losses would be much wider
than previously expected, with September's sales disappointing. 
Some retail analysts began trimming estimates of same-store sales
for the sector, with Thomson First call lowering estimates of
gains to 2.4 percent from its previous estimate of a 2.8 percent
gain.  

Property and casualty insurance company United National Group
(UNGL) was impacted by those hurricane winds, however, saying
that Frances' impact would hurt earnings by 4-5 cents per share. 
Companies warning included WMAR, SPN and LAVA, with SPN saying
that hurricanes caused ten days of downtime.  

Genentech (DNA) reported earnings after the bell and beat eps
estimates. In after-hours trading, DNA traded at $51.15, up from
the closing level of $50.25.  SBC was also to report earnings,
but no report had appeared at the time of this report.

Indices appear to be holding a hurricane party.  Watch futures'
developments overnight to make sure the party continues.  If it
does, gains might continue into tomorrow morning, but watch
carefully tomorrow afternoon for possible profit-taking ahead of
Friday's jobs numbers and second presidential debate.  Those
currently in bullish plays should protect profits as the SPX
approaches 1144-1146; the Dow, its 200-sma; the Nasdaq, 1975 and
then 2000; and the TRAN, the top of its ascending regression
channel.  The TRAN approaches that channel's resistance now.  

Crude continues to charge higher, but travels a greater distance
away from its 50-dma than it usually does.  Markets may already
be discounting an expected pullback or sideways consolidation to
retest the 50-dma's support.  So far, crude's upward trend
remains intact, with each pullback honoring the previous swing
high's support.  If crude continues its upward pattern without
violating the support of its 100-sma or previous swing highs,
those long equities should perhaps retain some skepticism of
gains.  Earnings season is upon the markets now, and some
companies might begin reporting the anticipated future effect of
crude's rise.  It's the outlook statements market participants
should watch. 

Thursday's economic releases begin with the usual 8:30 release of
jobless claims and continue with the 10:30 release of natural gas
inventories and the 3:00 release of August's Consumer Credit.  


***************
FUTURES MARKETS
***************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


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*****************
INDEX TRADER WRAP
*****************

Big test for BIG tech

"October has killed many a bear.  Buy Tech stocks in October and 
you'll soon wear a grin ear to ear." - Stock Trader's Almanac

The Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index (MSH.X) 468.31 +0.92% 
closed just above its longer-term 200-day SMA (468), a good test 
for bulls and longer-term bullish conviction as BIG tech was 
among today's percentage gainers in what turned out to be a 
broadly bullish session.

With the month of October just 4-sessions old, BIG tech as 
depicted the MSH.X has risen an impressive 5%, but with many 
technology sector bullish % still at more "oversold" levels and 
reversing up to "bull alert" statuses, buyers look aggressive as 
the MSH.X extends gains after just having reversed one-half of 
its December to August decline.

Morgan Stanley High Tech Index (MSH.X) - Daily Intervals

 

After two 12 % rallies and failures from those rallies, the MSH.X 
has managed to bread a pattern of rally then failure as BIG tech 
tests its longer-term 200-day SMA.  Over the years, I've noticed 
that MEANINGFUL longer-term changes of direction can take place 
at breaks of correlative 200-day SMA and either bullish/bearish 
support from the point and figure charts.

Morgan Stanley High Tech (MSH.X) - 5-point box

 

As the MSH.X rallies to challenge its 200-day SMA, the PnF chart 
of the MSH.X shows demand (X) has the index challenging its 
bearish resistance trend.  

A recent "low pole warning" from 400 to 450 is an alert that a 
bottom may have been found, where I make some ties to the NASDAQ-
100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) where today's action saw no net change in 
this bullish %, and still reads "bull alert" status at 47%.

In July (7 on a point and figure chart) the $BPNDX rose to 50% 
before reversing back to "bear confirmed" status and fell to 26% 
before reversing back up to current levels.  I'll note that in 
late June and early July (7) the MSH.X was able to reach 490.  

Morgan Stanley High Tech Components - Sorted by Industry

 

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $19.53 +2.25% made a final hour dash 
higher from $19.15, while Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR) $25.89 
+3.39% spiked from $25.10 in the final hour of trade when Verizon 
(NYSE:VZ) $41.48 +1.67% made positive comments regarding the 
increasing of its cap-ex budgets.

Motorola (NYSE:MOT) $18.75 -1.26% was weak after Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $28.53 +0.52% and PalmOne (NSADAQ:PLMO) $31.87 
+2.37% announced a licensing agreement where PalmOne will license 
Microsoft's ActiveSnc technology, giving users of the Treo 
smartphone direct, wireless access to corporate e-mail without 
the need for third-party technology.  New versions of the Treo, 
due this fall, will have the technology built in.

The MSFT/PLMO news is thought to be a threat to Motorola (MOT) 
who has been late to the market, but has partnered with privately 
held Good Technology to support MOT's forthcoming MPx phone.

Until now, Good Technology, of Santa Clara, Calif., had the 
market cornered. Its servers and software sit between a company's 
Exchange e-mail server and the Treo, and serve up corporate e-
mail to the phone. Its system also automatically synchronizes a 
user's mobile e-mail and calendar with a desktop.

U.S. Market Watch - 10/06/04 Close

 

The S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 547.89 +0.62% closes right at its 200-
day SMA, not unlike the Morgan Stanley High Tech Index (MSH.X).

The broadness of gains has the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) closing 
above its 200-day SMA for the first time since falling below on 
July 6 at 1,980.

I've marked other 200-day SMA levels in GREEN if current level of 
trade is ABOVE the 200-day SMA, and RED if current level of trade 
is BELOW the 200-day SMA.

The AMEX Composite (XAX.X) trades an all-time high (ATH) as this 
gold/energy/biotech-rich index accelerates further.

While the S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 416.65 +0.63% did not trade a 
new all-time high today, it closed there with Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) 
$53.98 +1.06% saying the economy is getting better, but high fuel 
prices are still a concern.

November Crude Oil futures (cl04x) settled at an all-time 
contract high of $52.05, despite a second-straight week where the 
EIA said crude oil inventories showed gains.  Meanwhile, December 
Crude Oil futures (cl04z) came darned close to achieving its 
point and figure chart bullish vertical count of $52.00.

The VIX.X, which showed a rather suspicious morning reversal 
after the EIA report at 10:30 AM has the SPX Dec. 1,135 calls 
(6,432 : 7,359), and Dec. 1,135 puts (6,404 : 7,132) running 
neck-and-neck for most active SPX options, where last trade was a 
respective $27 and $26.  Current month most actives had the Oct. 
1,125 put trading (5,832 : 19,322), Oct. 1,150 call trading 
(5,782 : 34,297) and Oct. 1,100 put (5,594 : 46,607) the 3rd, 4th 
and 5th-most active.

Pivot Matrix - 

 

Shares of Dow components Merck (NYSE:MRK) $31.67 -5.26% and Intel 
(NASDAQ:INTC) 21.13 -0.89% were weak against Dow breadth that 
finished positive at 24 to 6.  With the INDU still lagging not 
only in its bar chart, but the Pivot Matrix, near-term resistance 
is marked at WEEKLY R1 and DAILY R1, which the INDU did trade 
earlier this week.

It may be tough for the SOX.X to show strength above DAILY R1 and 
MONTHLY R1 correlations ahead of Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) $21.13
-0.89% quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, but a break above 
SOX.X 413 and WEEKLY pivot, combined with an Intel break above 
its trending lower 50-day SMA ($21.52) could bring in some short 
covering.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 10-06-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Watch List: A Few Three-lettered stocks
Stop Loss Updates: None
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: MMM
New Calls: IR, PH
New Puts: None

**********
Watch List
**********

A Few Three-lettered stocks

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


Toro Co - TTC - close: 71.10 change: +0.74

WHAT TO WATCH: We came pretty close to adding TTC to the play 
list this evening with a trigger over $71.50-72.00 to go long.  
The stock has a strong trend of higher lows and is about to 
breakout over major resistance to hit new all-time highs.  The 
oscillators are bullish and its MACD has produced a new buy 
signal.  

Chart=


---

M&T Bank - MTB - close: 98.66 change: +1.05

WHAT TO WATCH: MTB has been very strong the last few sessions and 
its technical oscillators have all turned positive with its MACD 
producing a new buy signal.  Shares are now challenging 
resistance near $99.00.  A breakout here would be new all-time 
highs.  We would watch for the breakout and or wait for MTB to 
clear round-number, psychological resistance at the $100 mark and 
then consider bullish positions. The P&F chart is already bullish 
with a $109 target.  A move over $99 would produce a new triple-
top breakout buy signal.

Chart=


---

Union Pacific - UNP - close: 61.57 change: +2.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Railroad stock UNP soared today with a high-volume 
breakout over resistance at the $60.00 level and its simple 200-
dma.  The P&F chart shows a fresh triple-top breakout buy signal 
and a $74 target.  This looks like an entry point for bullish 
positions although patient traders can hope for a dip back 
towards $60.00-60.50 and buy a bounce.

Chart=




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STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

None

*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

3M Co - MMM - close: 81.14 change: +2.38 stop: 80.75     

It looks like expectations are improving for MMM to meet or 
exceed its Q3 earnings numbers when they report next week.  
Deutsche Bank came out this afternoon and said as much, which 
sent shares of MMM soaring through the $80.00 mark.  The stock 
has broken above minor resistance at $81.00 and its simple 10, 
21, 40, 50 dma's and its exponential 200-dma on today's rally. 
We've been stopped out at $80.75.

Picked on September 15 at $82.00
Change since picked:      - 0.86
Earnings Date           07/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.5 million 
Chart =



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*********
NEW CALLS
*********

Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 70.19 change: +1.08 stop: 67.49

Company Description:
Ingersoll-Rand is a leading innovation and solutions provider for 
the major global markets of Climate Control, Industrial 
Solutions, Infrastructure, and Security and Safety. The company's 
diverse product portfolio encompasses such leading industrial and 
commercial brands as Schlage locks and security solutions; Thermo 
King transport temperature control equipment; Hussmann commercial 
and retail refrigeration equipment; Bobcat compact equipment; 
Club Car golf cars and utility vehicles; and Ingersoll-Rand 
industrial and construction equipment. In addition, IR offers 
products and services under many more premium brands for 
customers in industrial and commercial markets.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
BusinessWeek recently published an article from Standard & Poor's 
Equity Research services on Ingersoll-Rand (IR).  S&P felt the 
company was well positioned given its product mix for a strong 
performance in the "late stages of an economic upturn".  They 
went on to say how fundamentally sound and secure the company was 
and that the stock was undervalued.  Their 12-month price target 
is $93.  The stock didn't immediately react to the article but 
then shares didn't react back in August either when the company 
raised its dividend and announced a 10 million share buyback 
program.  We like IR today because the cyclical stocks and old 
economy stocks are on the move higher.  The CYC cyclical index 
just broke out over major resistance to hit new all-time highs in 
the last few sessions.  Today IR broke out over four-month old 
resistance at $70.00.  The move produced a new triple-top 
breakout buy signal on its P&F chart, which currently points to 
an $83 target.  We're going to target an initial move to $75 even 
though we think IR could trade higher.  If IR can reach $75 we'll 
re-evaluate an exit.  FYI: technical chart readers may note that 
IR appeared to be forming a bearish "diamond" pattern but today's 
breakout should negate it.

Suggested Options:
We are going to suggest the November and December calls although
our favorites are the November 70s and 75s.

BUY CALL NOV 65 IR-KM OI=5090 current ask $6.20
BUY CALL NOV 70 IR-KN OI=5197 current ask $2.85
BUY CALL NOV 75 IR-KO OI= 367 current ask $0.95


Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 06 at $70.19
Change since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.2 million 
Chart =


---

Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 62.78 chg: +1.79 stop: 59.49

Company Description:
With annual sales exceeding $7 billion, Parker Hannifin is the 
world's leading diversified manufacturer of motion and control 
technologies and systems, providing precision-engineered 
solutions for a wide variety of commercial, mobile, industrial 
and aerospace markets. The company employs more than 48,000 
people in 46 countries around the world.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We recently had PH as a candidate on our nightly Watch List and 
we've decided to graduate the stock to a full-fledged play.  The 
recent breakout over major resistance at $60.00 is a continuation 
of the rally that began on September 29th when PH rebounded 
strongly from the $56 level on huge volume.  PH also broke its 
trend of lower highs and now shares are hitting new all-time 
highs.  The P&F chart looks very bullish with a quadruple-top 
breakout buy signal and a $79 target.  If you don't feel like 
chasing today's 2.9 percent bounce from the $60 mark look for a 
dip back towards $61.50-62.00.  Technical traders will note that 
today's rally was fueled by twice the average volume.  We think 
the stock can run toward $67.50-70.00 by its earnings report out 
on October 19th.  Remember, we're not going to hold over 
earnings!

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the November calls. Our favorites are the 60s
and 65s.  

BUY CALL NOV 60 PH-KL OI=1075 current ask $3.85
BUY CALL NOV 65 PH-KM OI=1108 current ask $1.05

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 06 at $62.78
Change since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     719 thousand
Chart =



********
NEW PUTS
********

None


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*******************

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