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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 10/25/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 10-25-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: The Decline that Wasn't 
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Marsh McLennan avoids potential "death penalty" 


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
      10-25-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     9749.99 -  7.82  9777.87  9708.40 1.70 bln 1497/1306
NASDAQ   1914.04 -  1.10  1920.71  1905.91 1.59 bln 1631/1358
S&P 100   524.00 -  1.16   525.16   521.90   Totals 3128/2664
S&P 500  1094.80 -  0.94  1096.81  1090.19
SOX       397.87 +  2.71   402.36   394.29
RUS 2000  571.67 +  3.89   573.64   565.71
DJ TRANS 3380.17 +  8.23  3391.12  3344.77
VIX        16.58 +  1.30    16.71    16.02
VXO (VIX-O)16.87 +  0.78    17.34    16.40
VXN        22.70 +  1.34    22.73    22.14
Total Volume 3,292M
Total UpVol  1,669M
Total DnVol  1,573M
Total Adv  3128
Total Dcl  2664
52wk Highs  116 
52wk Lows    87
TRIN       1.10
PUT/CALL   0.76 
*******************************************************************

The Decline that Wasn't
Jonathan Levinson

The indices opened lower and got slammed in the morning as oil 
reached a new record high.  Bonds and gold were rallying, and it 
appeared that bull season was on.  The moves did not stick, 
however, as all markets corrected their early morning extremes, 
moderating throughout the session.  The indices closed 
fractionally negative.

Breadth was mixed, with declining volume leading advancing volume 
1.08:1 on the NYSE, 1.85:1 on the Amex and advancing volume 
leading declining volume on the Nasdaq 1.18:1.  Volatility rose 
for both the S&P and Nasdaq indices.  Overall, it was a sideways 
day within a daily descending trend, with tension running much 
higher than actual price action.


Daily Dow Chart


The Dow dropped 7.82 points to close at 9750, a new closing low 
on the 6 month chart.  The decline since the October high has 
been steady, with a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower 
lows.  Today's rejection at the lows is potentially bullish, but 
only if bulls can build it into a successful attempt on upper 
resistance, first at 9800 and more importantly at 9900, above 
which a new daily cycle upphase should kick off.



Daily S&P 500 Chart


The SPX lost less than a point with the 1094.8 close, but it was 
enough to keep the daily candle from printing green. The daily 
cycle downphase continues here, and below 1103 resistance, this 
remains a bearish chart.  The pattern appears to be a bullish 
descending wedge projecting to an implied target of 1142 on a 
break above the upper descending resistance line.  However, 1103 
and 113-15 are very stiff resistance, and bulls had their hands 
full merely trying to regain Friday's closing levels.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq broke its rising support line off the August low on a 
closing basis, well behind the other indices.  Nevertheless, the 
daily cycle downphase continues to suggest a slow rollover from 
the October highs, with bears eyeing the 1900 support level, 
below which 1875-1880 come into view.  As noted below, the 
Nasdaq's 1 point loss comes despite an upgrade to the chip sector 
from Smith Barney, as well as a sizeable addition to dealer 
reserves from the Fed's open market desk.  While the Nasdaq has 
been outperforming its peers for weeks, today's action showed 
that it is not immune to the broader market weakness.




Weekly TNX Chart




The ten year note yield (TNX) continued to respect its downtrend 
from the June high but continues to test support in  the 3.9%-
3.95% area.  TNX still has a ways to go before testing lower 
rising bear wedge support at 3.885%.  The weekly cycle upphase 
trying to form has so far generated no traction in the TNX, and a 
failure at 3.885% would be very bullish for bonds, projection a 
test below 3.6% on the wave to a retest of the July 2003 lows for 
the TNX.  For the day, the TNX closed lower by 1.2 bps at 3.972%.




Weekly chart of Crude oil



December crude oil futures reached a new high of 55.75 on the 
Nymex amid threats of a lockout by the Norwegian Shipowners 
Association ("NSA").  The NSA called for a lockout to take effect 
on November 8th if certain strike actions aren't terminated in 
the meantime.  With supply as tight as its become in recent 
months, any threat of disruption is reflected in the price of 
front-month futures, which rose to a new high on the news.  An 
hour later, it was announced that the Norwegian government would 
intervene to avert the oil workers' strike and the threatened 
lockout, helping prices ease off their highs.  Nymex crude 
settled at 54.55 for its afternoon session, unchanged for the 
day.

There's little to add to the weekly 3 year chart of crude oil- 
the picture is far more eloquent than I.

Smith Barney was out this morning with bullish recommendations on 
chipmakers and citing the "onslaught" of negativism in the sector 
that contributes to a bullish risk/reward profile.  Analyst Glen 
Yeung was recommending that investors be "overweight" the sector 
into 2005.  Along with the comments, Smith Barney upgraded TXN, 
ALTR, IDTI, ADI and IRF from "hold" to "buy".  The Philly 
Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed higher by .69% at 397.87.



UBS and Gallup reported that investor optimism reached a 12 month 
low in October on fears surrounding rising energy prices and the 
weak employment market.  The UBS Index of Investor Optimism 
declined 12 points to 62, the lowest reading in a year and well 
below its 124 reading when established in 1996.


New home sales were released by the National Association of 
Realtors at 10AM today, the lone economic report for the day.  
New home sales exceeded expectations for a 6.51M unit rate, 
coming in at 6.75M units in September.  This follows an upwardly 
revised 6.55M unit rate in August. The NAR attributed the buying 
to low mortgage rates.  Homebuilder PHM was upgraded by CSFB to 
"outperform" from "neutral" based on analyst Ivy Zelman's opinion 
that the stock's valuation is too low.  PHM closed higher by 
8.51% at 51.50.


In corporate news, NYSE specialist firm LAB announced a loss of 1 
cent per share for Q3, with revenue declining from 70.9M in Q3 
2003 to 64.7M this quarter. The firm cited "lower principal 
trading revenues at the company's specialist subsidiary due to 
continued lower equity volumes and volatility."  LAB finished the 
day down 1.46% at 7.40.


Heath and hygiene product maker KMB reported higher earnings for 
Q3 of 89 cents per share, up from 83 cents in Q3 2003, missing 
consensus estimates by a penny.  Revenues were up 6.2% to 3.87B, 
in line with expectations.  The company lowered expectations by 
4-5 cents per share for Q4 to 89-91 cents per share.  Analysts 
were projecting earnings of 95 cents for Q4.  KMB lost 6.39% to 
close at 59.03.

Telecommunications provider BLS announced Q3 earnings of 46 cents 
per share, down 2 cents from Q3 2003's level.  This included a 3 
cent charge for hurricane-related expenses, which results in a 2 
cent miss against analyst expectations.  Revenue was lower by .9% 
in the quarter.  BLS closed lower by .49% at 26.42.

Commercial leasing company R reported net income of 83 cents per 
share, up 45% from Q3 2003's 63 cents.  These results beat 
estimates by 4 cents.  R closed flat at 47.45.


Banker PFS reported a 64% increase in net income for Q3 of 13.3M 
or 19 cents per share, up from 16 cents or 8.1M in Q3 2003.  This 
represents a 64% increase in net income, but a 1 cent miss 
against analyst expectations of 20 cents per share for the 
quarter.  PFS gained 3.88% to close at 17.67.


AXP reported Q3 earnings of 69 cents or 879M, meeting 
expectations.  This represented a 14% rise from Q3 2003's 59 
cents of 770M net income.  Revenue rose from 6.4B last year to 
7.2B, also meeting expectations.  AXP lost 1.12% to close at 
51.15.


GOOG once again provided bears with a religious experience, 
surging to a new record of high of 194.43 and surpassing YHOO in 
market capitalization as reported by Marketwatch in the 
afternoon.  At 188.40, GOOG is valued at 51.1B, while at 34.84 
YHOO is valued at 47.4B.  GOOG closed higher by 8.68% at 187.4.


Toyota Motor Credit Corp., a subsidiary of TM, announced its 
intention to restate earnings for 2003 and 2004 following a 
review of its accounting policies.  The company noted that 
certain of its recognition of some costs and fees related to its 
acquisition of finance and lease contracts were not GAAP-
compliant, but that it doesn't expect the restatement to affect 
previously stated cashflow.  The company added that the 
restatement may result in higher financing revenue and net 
income.  TM rose .19% to close at 75.39.


After the bell, FLEX announced earnings that met expectations at 
16 cents per share but missed on revenues with 4.14B vs. 4.2B 
expected.  The stock got smoked for 5.34%, trading 11.87 as of 
this writing.

For tomorrow, the earnings rush continues, with consumer 
confidence for October as the lone economic report for the day.  
With crude oil making record highs on a daily basis, election 
tensions running high and earnings being reported, there's little 
to suggest a serious test of the ongoing daily cycle downphase.  
Nevertheless, upside resistance is clear, and traders should 
remain mentally nimble in the event of an upside break.  Until 
then, the daily cycle bears remain in control. 
 

************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Marsh McLennan avoids potential "death penalty"

Insurers were broadly higher in Monday's session, where in after-
hours trade, Marsh McLennan (NYSE:MMC) $26.42 -1.38% jumped to 
$28.94 after New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said his 
office would not charge the company with criminal charges after 
its Board of Directors announced the resignation of it embattled 
CEO Jeffrey Greenberg earlier in the day.

The news created a short-term sigh of relief as some industry 
watchers speculated that criminal charges against the insurance 
giant might eventually end the company's 130-year history.

Late Monday, Marsh McLennan named Michael Cherkasky as the 
company's CEO, where Mr. Cherkasky helped reform the Los Angeles 
Police Department and the Teamsters union during his time as an 
executive of corporate investigations firm Kroll, Inc, whom Marsh 
McLennan recently acquired.

Mr. Cherkasky was Eliot Spitzer's boss when they both worked for 
the Manhattan District Attorney's office.

While analysts tend to agree that margins will likely be squeezed 
as the industry reforms how it deals with commissions and the 
bidding process for business among the major insurers, Spitzer's 
response to Marsh's management change at the top gave hint that 
the New York Attorney's office is looking for reform, and not 
looking to put major insurers out of business.

At the time of this writing, Spitzer's office did not rule out 
the likelihood of civil penalties.

In related insurance industry news, Chubb (NYSE:CB) $65.36 -0.15% 
slid to $65.01 in Monday's extended session after the insurer of 
businesses and wealthy individuals said it received a subpoena 
from Connecticut's Attorney General about possible antitrust 
violations.

The New Jersey firm said in a filing with the Securities and 
Exchange Commission (SEC) that it received "interrogations and a 
subpoena" from the state's Attorney General's office on Friday.

The company did not provide any further details of the inquiry.

U.S. Market Watch - 10/25/04 Close

 

The major indices finished Monday's session relatively unchanged.  

Today's lone economic report was a big one for the homebuilders 
as the Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 619.87 +4.26% 
surged back above its 200-day SMA (601) after September existing 
home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.75 
million, which was ahead of the 6.54 million projected by 
economists.

Pulte Home (NYSE:PHM) $51.50 +9.4% lead the list of homebuilder 
gains, where it was Pulte that triggered the sector's declines in 
September after warning that it has raised new home prices too 
aggressively in some of its Las Vegas, Nevada markets, which in 
turn had sector bulls fearing a price bubble for the broader 
housing market was about to burst.  

While cautious, Smith Barney, which has been one of the more 
bearish Wall Street firms on the semiconductors, upgraded several 
names in the sector saying many chipmakers have been quicker to 
react to building inventories than has historically been found 
and that recent CapEx spending has been reduced to trough levels.

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 239.55 +3.9% jumped back to 
test 240 resistance and 2004 highs, as Goldman Sachs raised their 
gold price targets (see 09:00 AM Update) on thoughts of a weaker 
dollar.  Goldman Sachs said sector bellwether Newmont Mining 
(NYSE:NEM) $47.66 +3.33% remained their favorite in the group.

A quick check of the $HUI.X's point and figure chart has it 
remaining bullish, with a vertical count to 266.00.  First sign 
of weakness would be a double bottom sell signal at 216.  While 
"overbought" at 72.02%, the sector bullish % (BPPREC) from 
Dorsey/Wright and Associates is still "bull confirmed" and would 
take a reversal lower reading of 66% to turn "bear alert."  

Market Snapshot / Internals - 10/25/04 Close

 

Today's trade at $428 for December Gold futures (gc04z) $430.20 
+0.06%, where Spot Gold lags just a smidge, builds a newly 
construction bullish vertical count to $474.00.  February '05 
Gold futures (gc05g) $431.60, which gave a double-top buy signal 
last week at $428 currently has a bullish vertical count being 
constructed to $476.

Pivot Matrix - 

 

The Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,750 -0.08% made a valiant effort to 
reclaim its MONTHLY S2 by the close on negative breadth of 19 to 
11.  Insurer American International Group (NYSE:AIG) $56.10 
+2.55% was the top percentage gainer and rose to $58.40 in 
tonight's extended session.  The Dow Diamonds (AMEX:DIA) $97.68
-0.08% last ticked by at $97.80, where correlative, yet tentative 
support at DAILY Pivot and MONTHLY S2 could have some bears 
looking to lock in gains as long as that level holds support the 
remainder of the week.

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) - Daily Intervals

 

While not a component of the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X), 
electronics manufacturing service provider to original equipment 
manufacturers (OEMs) Flextronics Intl. (NASDAQ:FLEX) $12.54
-0.31% dropped to $11.60 in this evening's after-hours session. 

While the company narrowly missed Wall Street's sales 
expectations and issued tepid guidance for the next two quarters, 
the company characterized the current market environment as being 
not that "big of a deal."  Company execs cited modestly improving 
gross margins with inventory turns at 11-times with its leverage 
ratio down from last quarter, as reasons for fundamental analysts 
to focus on 20-30% growth in the next two quarters.

Friday's sector bullish % (BPSEMI) readings from Dorsey/Wright 
and Associates still find the semiconductors in "bull alert" 
status at 28.9% after a recent low reading of just 6%.  Bullish 
divergence continues to present itself from July readings of 26%, 
where a break much above WEEKLY R1 and 413 could pave way to 
WEEKLY R2 and MONTHLY R2.  

On Wednesday, Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) $11.71 +1.56% is 
holding an analyst meeting in London, England.

Jeff Bailey
 

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 10-25-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: APOL, APC 	
Dropped Calls: OSIP, PGR
Dropped Puts:  None
Watch List: Homebuilders to Biotech and more! 


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

APOL - put play -
  Be careful here!  APOL is trying to rebound again.
  More conservative traders may want to exit if
  APOL trades over the $72 level.
 
 
APC - call play -
  Remember that we will be closing APC on Thursday
  afternoon before the market's close.
 


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

OSI Pharma - OSIP - close: 61.34 change: -1.57 stop: 61.99

The early drop in the BTK biotech index lead shares of OSIP to a 
weak opening.  Shares quickly traded under minor support at 
$62.00 and hit our stop loss at $61.99.  OSIP did manage a meager 
bounce from the $60.50 level just as the BTK rebounded from its 
lows of the session.  Nimble traders can watch for a drop under 
support at $60.00 as a potential bearish entry point to target a 
fall toward the $55 level and its simple 200-dma. 

Picked on October 03 at $63.45
Change since picked:    - 2.11
Earnings Date         08/10/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.6 million 
Chart =


---

Progressive - PGR - close: 90.89 chg: +2.17 stop: 85.75      

In this market environment we're going to take our hypothetical 
"profits" whenever and wherever we can.  PGR continue to show 
great relative strength today and added another 2.44 percent on 
decent volume.  More importantly shares hit our target at the $90 
level and actually closed strongly above this level of resistance 
suggesting more strength to come.  While it's very possible the 
rally in PGR will continue we are going to exit per our trading 
plan.  The stock is still under resistance at its April 2004 
highs near $92.  More aggressive traders willing to let PGR run 
should consider readjusting their stop losses to whatever level 
suits them best.

Picked on October 13 at $85.65 
Change since picked:    + 5.24
Earnings Date         10/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     700 thousand


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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Centex - CTX - close: 48.72 change: +1.51

WHAT TO WATCH: The homebuilding stocks turned in a very strong 
day.  The DJUSHB index rose more than 4.2 percent to breakout 
over the 600 level and its simple 200-dma.  The DJUSHB's MACD 
indicator is nearing a new buy signal.  Likewise the technicals 
on CTX are turning bullish with the MACD hinting at a new buy 
signal soon.  CTX also rallied more than 3 percent on Monday to 
breakout over its simple 50 and 200-dma's.  CTX is due to report 
earnings Tuesday after the closing bell with estimates at $1.59 a 
share.  We'll be watching for a reaction.

Chart=


---

Reynolds American - RAI - close: 67.03 change: -1.16

WHAT TO WATCH: It would appear that RAI crushed the earnings 
estimates today when it reported its Q3 results.  Plus, the 
company raised guidance for the fourth quarter.  Yet still the 
stock sold off after the initial gap higher.  Monday's action 
painted a huge bearish engulfing candlestick on its daily chart, 
which is typically a one-day (bearish) reversal signal.  We're 
watching for confirmation but the MACD indicator is very close to 
a new sell signal.  A drop under $66 could be an entry point.

Chart=


---

ImClone Systems - IMCL - close: 46.91 change: -2.42

WHAT TO WATCH: Look out below!  Shares of IMCL, which already 
looked weak on Friday with the close under $50.00, looks very 
weak today with a 4.9 percent drop and a close under support at 
the $48.00 level.  The P&F chart shows a spread triple-bottom 
breakdown sell signal with a $38 target.  Volume was above 
average on today's decline.  We would seriously consider shorting 
it/buying puts with a $40 target if it were not for IMCL's 
earnings report on Thursday.  We'll be watching the post-earnings 
reaction.

Chart=


---

V F Corp - VFC - close: 53.76 change: +3.74

WHAT TO WATCH: This is odd.  Shares of VFC soared 7.4 percent on 
Monday with huge volume about five times the normal.  Yet there 
is no discernible reason for the breakout over resistance at 
$51.00.  The company reported earnings last Thursday.  VFC did 
beat earnings by 9 cents but the reaction should have been on 
Friday.  Whatever the case the move today is a new one-year high 
and a bullish catapult breakout on the P&F chart.  It is 
noteworthy that VFC has long-term resistance at $55.00 and a 
breakout over $55 would be new all-time highs.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

IBM $88.43 +1.04 - Positive comments from Barron's this weekend 
helped lift IBM back above the $88 level but shares remain under 
resistance at $90 and its simple 200-dma.

MHK $84.20 +1.81 - The post-earnings rally in MHK is looking 
extended here and shares are nearing resistance at $85. We're 
watching for a significant pull back to consider a bounce.

KBH $78.90 +2.40 - Yet another homebuilder bouncing but this one 
is bouncing from support near $75 and its simple 50-dma.  If 
shares crack $80 it could be a short-term buy.

RYL $91.50 +3.10 - Still another homebuilder moving higher.  RYL 
has broken out over its simple 50-dma and resistance at the $90 
mark.  Shares could easily hit $95 soon. 
 

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would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

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price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

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start until your free trial is over.

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and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
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information over the phone.

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