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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/22/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 11-22-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: As the World Turns 
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Stocks recoup bulk of Friday's declines  


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
      11-22-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10489.42 + 32.51 10508.04 10432.01 1.73 bln 1991/ 840
NASDAQ   2085.19 + 14.56  2085.19  2052.80 1.90 bln 1799/1235
S&P 100   561.64 +  1.95   562.42   557.94   Totals 3790/2075
S&P 500  1177.24 +  6.90  1178.18  1167.89
SOX       432.88 +  1.00   434.59   426.09
RUS 2000  621.52 +  8.08   621.59   612.02
DJ TRANS 3609.24 + 41.59  3613.07  3559.77
VIX        12.97 -  0.53    13.71    12.94
VXO (VIX-O)13.58 -  1.02    14.28    13.48
VXN        18.77 -  0.95    20.07    18.72
Total Volume 3,637M
Total UpVol  2,349M
Total DnVol  1,231M
Total Adv  3790
Total Dcl  2075
52wk Highs  331 
52wk Lows    29
TRIN       0.99
PUT/CALL   0.73 
*******************************************************************

As the World Turns
Linda Piazza

Thanksgiving week opened with a day light on U.S. economic 
releases, but heavy on global news that might impact our markets.  

The only scheduled U.S. economic release was the 6:00 EST release
of the SEMI Book-to-Bill number, but the weekend had been heavy
with meetings among the world's political and economic leaders.
Added to that mix were various global and analyst reports.  Those
included an International Monetary Fund report that lowered the
IMF's forecast for the globe's 2005 economic growth, a negative
Merrill Lynch report on PC sales that initially hit tech stocks
and a Piper Jaffray decision to raise earnings estimates for
Apple Computer.  Piper Jaffray also set a new, attention-getting
price target of $100.00.

By the end of the day, the dollar had temporarily stabilized and
crude had retreated off its high of the day.  Most indices had
posted gains, with the BTK (Biotechnology Index), TRAN (Dow Jones
Transportation Index), XNG (Natural Gas Index), UTY (Utility
Index) and DJUSHB (Dow Jones Home Construction Index) being among
the standouts, each posting more than 1 percent gains.

Daily Chart of the SPX:

 

Annotated 15-Minute Chart of the SPX:

 
 
Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:

 

Annotated 15-Minute Chart for the Nasdaq:

 

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

 

The TRAN, the Dow's sister index, sometimes gives advance notice
as to the direction the Dow and S&P's are most likely to take. 
The TRAN is sensitive to both crude and economic issues.

Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN:

 

Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:

 

What happens tomorrow will likely be influenced by the reaction
to the SEMI book-to-bill number, with that number not yet
released as this report was prepared, and crude prices.  

Annotated Daily Chart of Crude for January Delivery:

 

The dollar's performance remains important, but the dollar
consolidated much of Monday.  With the Nikkei closed Tuesday for
a one-day holiday, the dollar/yen pair may continue to
consolidate or zoom around in a choppy fashion difficult to
predict, and the euro/dollar pair may follow suit.

Currency issues have been much featured in financial newsletters
and television reports late last week and through today.  This
weekend, finance ministers and central bank members from twenty
countries concluded a meeting without a statement addressing the
dollar's decline against other currencies.  According to one
article, German officials had attempted to include language that
criticized the volatility of recent currency moves, but the U.S.
rejected the language.  

Going into the meeting, many had feared that no consensus could
be reached, but that lack of consensus still remained a
disappointment.  Some interpreted the lack of a statement to mean
that some participants wanted to see currencies fluctuate freely
against the dollar.  Some must have argued against the kind of
intervention that has been practiced in the past by Japan and
South Korea to weaken their currencies against the dollar.  

China, too, has been under pressure to allow its currency to
fluctuate against the dollar, with China's President Hu Jintao
reportedly telling President Bush separately, in their meeting in
Chile, that China will consider allowing more flexibility, but
only if economic conditions are stable.  A stronger dollar
benefits foreign exporters but hurts U.S. exporters.  Some feel
that a weaker dollar is needed to lower the U.S. deficit, but
other countries fight to protect their more fragile economies.  

Currency experts felt that the lack of a statement and the
presumed reasoning behind that lack suggested further declines in
the dollar against other currencies.  That decline against some
currencies didn't take long to occur, as the dollar fell to
multi-year lows against South Korea's won, but throughout most of
the U.S. trading day, the dollar consolidated against most other
currencies.

Another meeting, the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit,
occurred in Santiago, Chile.  However, despite the "economic"
thrust of those meetings, North Korea's nuclear threat issues was
the subject of a bilateral meeting with President Bush and
Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi.  At that bilateral meeting,
President Bush reaffirmed his intention that discussions with
North Korea must be multi-party ones, including other Pacific Rim
leaders.  

Iran's nuclear threat was also discussed, with President Bush
also meeting with China, South Korea and Russia to discuss Iran's
threat.  In the wake of those meetings and at the eurozone
countries' urging, Iran on Monday suspended enrichment processes
that could be used to develop a bomb.  Some consider the
suspension a ploy to avoid the U.S.'s request that the U.N.
sanction the country.  The U.S. wants a statement added in the EU
draft resolution to the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) that sets forth measures to be taken if Iran restarts its
enrichment program.  

Iran has already warned that it's not that country's intention to
make the suspension permanent.  Rather, Iran intends the
suspension as an effort to restore confidence in its peaceful
goals for the program.  The IAEA has been in the process of
confirming the suspension, with a report likely at a Thursday
meeting.  

Discussions about a comprehensive global trade accord and free
trade agreements were also scheduled for that Asian Pacific
Economic Cooperation Summit.  At the conclusion of his meeting
with Prime Minister Koizumi, President Bush reiterated his
commitment to a strong dollar and to lowering the U.S. budget
deficit, both a concern of our trading partners, but his
statement made little impact in convincing market watchers that
the dollar would stem its slide on more than a temporary basis. 

That concern about the U.S. budget deficit and dollar performance
was heightened by the International Monetary Fund's lowering of
the globe's 2005 economic growth forecasts, to 4.0 percent from
the IMF's former 4.3 percent estimate.  The IMF cited the U.S.'s
budget deficit and higher crude costs when lowering that
forecast.  

Computer makers were the subject of conflicting reports Monday. 
Merrill Lynch proposed that PC sales growth had already peaked
for 2004, at 12 percent.  The firm expects sales growth for 2005
and 2006 to be lower, at 9 and 6 percent, respectively.  

Piper Jaffray had more encouraging things to say about computer
maker Apple (AAPL), raising the company's full-year earnings
estimate for 2005-2006.  Piper Jaffray caught the attention of
market watchers when the firm raised the price target to $100
from its current $52.  The firm took this step after conducting a
six-week survey of former PC users who bought iPods, determining
that a healthy 13 percent of those intended to buy or had already
bought Macs. In the interests of accounting for errors or bias
among survey participants, Piper Jaffray's analyst trimmed those
estimates back to a 6.5 percent capture rate for reeling in
first-time Mac buyers.  

Fulcrum Global Partners also raised Apple's price target, but to
$65.00.  The firm's analyst cited strong sales of iPods and iMac
G5 desktops, and increased his estimates of iPod sales and IMac
shipments.  He expects Mac shipments to grow faster than in the
overall PC market.  

The GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, includes AAPL as a component
stock, as well as a number of PC makers.  While many component
stocks started the day under pressure, the GHA climbed,
consolidated, and climbed again into the close, with the GHA's
strong performance perhaps predicting early on that the Nasdaq
would rise by the end of the day, too.  Despite the disturbing
news from Merrill Lynch, this strong performer's daily candle
engulfed Friday's bearish one, touching 300 and closing just
above it at 300.07.  The GHA should be watched for rollover or
breakout potential.

Annotated Daily Chart of the GHA:

 

Other developments Monday included a 2.53 percent loss in Google
(GOOG) after Friday's report on insider selling and 2.16 and 4.93
percent gains, respectively, in Toys R Us (TOY) and Campbell Soup
Company (CPB) after their better-than-expected earnings results. 
Oracle dropped 0.54 percent.  PeopleSoft shareholders decided
they would take ORCL's offer, but PeopleSoft's board still
insisted that the offer undervalued the company.  ORCL said it
would seek a hearing this week in Delaware to resolve the issue.  

The calendar for economic releases remains light Tuesday.  At
10:30, investors get a glimpse of October's Existing Home Sales. 
After the close, the ABC Consumer Confidence number will be
released at 6:30 EST.  The Nikkei won't trade tonight, but watch
the futures' reaction to the SEMI book-to-bill number for some
insight into the impact of that number.  The tech-heavy Taiwan
Weighted and South Korean Kospi can also be watched to gauge
reaction to that number.  Remember that markets are already
seeing holiday-lightened volumes, and volumes may stagnate even
more as Thanksgiving approaches.  Be prepared for stagnate
markets, too, or for markets that chop around in difficult-to-
anticipate moves.  Don't get married to any positions in a light-
volume, holiday week.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Stocks recoup bulk of Friday's declines

The trade-shortened Thanksgiving week got off to a rather ominous 
start as higher oil prices set a negative tone early, but as the 
session progressed and oil prices abated, buyers pressed stocks 
higher toward the close.

Volumes were brisk for the NASDAQ, which turned just over 1.9 
billion shares in what had looked to be a light volume session 
earlier in the day.  Volumes were light at the more 
institutionally held NYSE with just 1.39 billion shares traded.  

Market Snapshot / Internals - 11/22/04 Close

 

A bid for oil at this morning's open had stocks opening mixed to 
weak, but as the session progressed, buyers slowly gained control 
of the session.

New highs ramped at the NYSE as traders returned from lunch, with 
the AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 287.49 +1.37% closing at an 
all-time high, with broader energy, transport, telecom and 
insurance stocks finding buyers into the close.

U.S. Market Watch - 11/22/04 Close

 

The Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 519.30 +1.03% looked down and out 
at the 11:00 hour, as Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB) $57.14 +3.25% 
fell to a three-month low of $54.30, but reversed a 1% after CIBC 
upgraded the shares to "sector outperform" from "sector perform" 
based on valuation and the firms belief that it Antegren drug 
will win full approval from the FDA.

The small-caps of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 621.52 +1.31% 
were down just fractionally early this morning, where the Russell 
2000 Growth ishares (AMEX:IWO) $64.06 +1.12% found buyers after 
their gap lower open of $63.17.

Over the past 20 sessions, the IWO has risen 8.98%, while the 
blended Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) has gained 8.72%.  For the 
most part, I see "value" and "growth" running neck-and-neck.

AMEX Natural Gas Index ($XNG.X) Chart - 2-point box

 

I see that shares of EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) $73.52 +3.05%, 
which were added to the OI call play list, were the biggest 
percentage gainer in the XNG.X today and closed at a new all-time 
high, while Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) $52.23 +1.24% nears its 
recent all-time high of $54.35 set in late October.

While many of the 15 components in the XNG.X produce oil, natural 
gas is a greater portion of their reserves.  EP, NI, STR, NFG, 
KMI and GAS would most likely be classified as gas utilities.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

Volumes were anemic in the first-half of today's session and I 
thought for certain the SPX would come back and test its WEEKLY 
S1, which marks the prior 52-week highs found in March.  In what 
tends to be a rather light volume and bullish week of trade, 
buyers look rather eager above the 1,163-1,164 overlap, where at 
a more technically over-extended trade, I would have to think oil 
would need to break below the $45.00 level for the SPX to have a 
shot at 1,195 by Friday's close.

NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPX) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

The very broad NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) turned things around just 
above the 2,050 level, where more than likely, old bears that had 
been leveraging off that resistance early this month squared up 
positions (bought back) on the morning dip.  We could still see 
some fund managers taking profits into tomorrow's close before 
they head out for a 4 or 5-day weekend.  

With the NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,979.79 +0.46% and S&P 500 
Index (SPX.X) 1,177.24 +0.58% still holding well above their 52-
week highs found earlier this year, I'd have to think a close 
much above COMPX 2,110 sets the stage for a new 52-week high in 
the COMPX.

Pivot Matrix - 

 

The NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) $39.05 +0.95% kissed its MONTHLY R2 
just prior to 11:00 as oil slipped back below $49.00.  Multiple 
support correlations show up tomorrow at DAILY S2 and WEEKLY S1s 
for the equity indices followed in the matrix (INDU and DIA too).

The Dow Diamonds (DIA) 104.80 +0.21% couldn't close the deal with 
a trade at its WEEKLY R1, and with price heavyweight 3M 
(NYSE:MMM) $80.74 -0.25% right back at my bullish profile entry 
point from 11/08/04 at $80.75, it should be time for the benefit 
of the lower dollar to kick in.

Jeff Bailey
 

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 11-22-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: COP, EBAY, EOG, FDX, MUR, PTR, QCOM, SUN, FRX
New Call: FLR
Dropped Calls: GDW
Dropped Puts:  None
Watch List: Networks, Oil and Energy 


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

COP - call play -
  The rise in oil stocks was out done by COP with a 
  1.6 percent gain and a breakout over minor resistance
  at $88.00.  This looks like a bullish entry point but shares
  still have some resistance at $90.00.
 
 
 
EBAY - call play -
  Was that the dip?  We were looking for a drop towards
  $105.  Shares hit $106.03 this morning before rebounding.
 
 
EOG - call play -
  Monday proved to be another big day for EOG with a 
  3 percent gain.  Shares are now at new all-time highs.
  Raise the stop from 64.99 to 67.99.
 
 
FDX - call play -
  FDX looks poised to breakout over resistance at $96.00.
 
 
MUR - call play -
  MUR proved to be another big winner in the oil sector on
  Monday.  Shares added 3.3 percent to breakout over
  resistance at $82.00.  We have been triggered at $82.25.
 
 
PTR - call play -
  This looks like a bullish entry point in this Chinese oil stock.
 
 
QCOM - call play -
  This is a nice rebound for QCOM with a 2 percent gain 
  putting shares back above the $40 level and the crowd
  of moving averages.
 
 
SUN - call play -
  The rally continues for SUN and shares have broken through
  round-number, psychological resistance at $80.00.
 
 
FRX - put play -
  Heads up!  Bank of America downgraded FRX to a "sell" rating
  this morning.  The firm also slashed their price target to $34.
  FRX gapped lower at the open to $39.07.  This was below our
  trigger at $39.95, opening the play for us.  Volume was very 
  heavy at more than five times the average.  Readers who didn't
  get this morning's open have a decision to make.  Do you chase
  it here with a momemtum entry?  Or do you hope for an oversold
  bounce and open new bearish/put positions on a failed rally under
  $40.00?   We're going to lower our stop loss to $42.01.


********
NEW CALL
********

Fluor Corp - FLR - close: 48.51 change: +1.51 stop: 43.99

Company Description:
Fluor Corporation provides services on a global basis in the 
fields of engineering, procurement, construction, operations, 
maintenance and project management. Headquartered in Aliso Viejo, 
Calif., Fluor is a FORTUNE 500 company with revenues of nearly $9 
billion in 2003. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It seems like oil stocks are the only ones really moving strongly 
higher these days.  It's not true but that's an easy impression 
to get.  We tried to find another bullish candidate that wasn't 
an oil-related issue.  Thus FLR seemed a decent idea when we 
noticed it was in the "construction services" business.  Yet 
digging down we see that they do a lot of business in the oil and 
gas industry along with infrastructure projects, government work 
and more. Oh well, we decided not to pass this one up anyway.  
Technically we like FLR's relative strength the last couple of 
weeks.  There is a definite trend of higher lows.  The stock 
easily shrugged off a lousy earnings report in late October.  The 
rallies are fueled by heavy volume.  Today's 3 percent move was 
powered by volume virtually twice the normal.  Its P&F chart is 
bullish with a $55 target.  After today's breakout over $48 we 
don't see any real overhead resistance until the $55 to $60 
region either.  Our six to eight week target will be the $55 
level but we suspect FLR will trade there much quicker.

Suggested Options:
There are December calls available but we're going to suggest
the January calls.  Aprils don't look bad either.

BUY CALL JAN 45 FLR-AI OI=1165 current ask $4.40
BUY CALL JAN 50 FLR-AJ OI= 755 current ask $1.35

Annotated chart:

 

Picked on November 22 at $48.51
Change since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      521 thousand   
Chart =



*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

Golden West Fncl - GDW - cls: 117.71 chg: +2.11 stop: 114.99    

Curses!  Sometimes one has to wonder how often the market makers 
let stocks drop just under support to tag a few stops losses.  
That's what appeared to happen in GDW today.  Shares slipped 
under round-number support at $115.00 to $114.83 before sharply 
rebounding for a strong gain.  Our stop was at $114.99.  Readers 
can keep an eye on GDW for a move back over the $120 level.

Picked on November 10 at $118.15
Change since picked:      - 0.44
Earnings Date           10/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       583 thousand   
Chart =



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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Cerner Corp - CERN - close: 52.20 change: +1.38

WHAT TO WATCH: We made note of CERN a couple of weeks ago when 
shares were breaking out of its trading range.  Now the stock is 
on the move higher again after spending the last week 
consolidating sideways over the $50.00 level.  We're impressed 
that the $50 level held up considering Friday's steep decline.  
This looks like a momentum trader's entry point for a run toward 
the $57-60 region.  The bullish P&F chart points to $60.00.

Chart=


---

Newfield Exploration - NFX - close: 61.36 change: +1.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Oil stocks are breaking out left and right.  
Here's another one with a move over resistance at $60.00 and its 
50-dma.  Volume has been strong on the current rally and its 
technicals are bullish.  The MACD just produced a new buy signal 
two days ago.  The P&F chart just reversed from a sell signal to 
a buy signal with a $72 target.

Chart=


---

Noble Energy - NBL - close: 60.96 change: +1.03

WHAT TO WATCH: Yet another oil-related stock on the move higher.  
Shares of NBL have been consolidating sideways the past six weeks 
but shares have now rallied toward resistance at $61.00.  
Technicals are bullish and its MACD produced a new buy signal two 
days ago.  The bullish P&F chart points to a $69 target.  We 
would consider a trigger over $61.40 as a entry point.

Chart=


---

FPL Group Inc - FPL - close: 73.25 change: +1.44

WHAT TO WATCH: This electric utility stock just broke out over 
major resistance at $73.00 to hit new all-time highs.  The 
several days looks like a bull flag pattern on its daily chart so 
today's move is a new bullish entry point.  Just be sure to use 
good stop placement.  We're thinking somewhere in the $70-71 
range.  The bullish P&F chart points to a $99.00 target.

Chart=


-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

SYMC $62.05 +1.30 - This looks like a bullish entry point with 
the move over $62.00.  Conservative traders can look for 
confirmation over $62.50.

CLF $89.45 +3.16 - CLF has been consolidating sideways the past 
few days but is now challenging resistance at $90.00.

LH $47.96 +0.95 - LEH is breaking out after two weeks of a very 
narrow trading range.  

DGX $92.57 +1.12 - The recent bounce from $90.00 looks like a 
bullish entry point for a run towards $100.
 

*******************
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**********
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**********

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