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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 12/20/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 12-20-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Check your inverted yield curve.  
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Santa Claus Rally, or a Grinch-like pinch?


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
      12-20-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10661.60 + 11.68 10735.27 10652.07 1.78 bln 1383/1434
NASDAQ   2127.85 -  7.35  2154.48  2124.22 1.98 bln 1128/1952
S&P 100   567.80 +  0.43   572.14   567.31   Totals 2511/3386
S&P 500  1194.65 +  0.45  1203.64  1193.36
SOX       419.40 -  4.35   428.19   418.53
RUS 2000  638.05 -  4.03   645.17   636.95
DJ TRANS 3730.88 - 20.19  3762.15  3728.45
VIX        11.83 -  0.12    12.34    11.77
VXO (VIX-O)13.61 +  0.90    13.63    12.28
VXN        18.21 +  0.00    19.22    18.21
Total Volume 3,773M
Total UpVol  1,421M
Total DnVol  2,206M
Total Adv  2511
Total Dcl  3386
52wk Highs  304 
52wk Lows    29
TRIN       1.06
PUT/CALL   0.84 
*******************************************************************

Buoyed by oil prices failing more than a $1.00 a barrel, the DOW 
charged out of the gate this morning, gained about 85 points, hit 
its daily high of 10732 and reversed and unfortunately from there 
it was downhill for the rest of the day. The DOW closed at 10661 
for a measly +11.68 gain for the day. The SPX also hit its daily 
high early in the morning at 1203.64, fell for the balance of the 
day making a daily low at 1193.36 and also closed poorly at 
1194.66 for a daily gain of +0.46. Same story for the NASDAQ, it 
hit its daily high at 2154.48, made a daily low at 2124.22 and 
also closed poorly at 2127.85 for a daily loss of -7.35 points 

NASDAQ most actives were SIRI, MSFT, PARS, SYMC AND CSCO. NYSE 
most actives were PFE, LU, NWS, NT AND MRK. 

On the Big Board, 1.4 billion shares traded and 1,641 stocks rose 
and 1,677 fell. On the Nasdaq 2 billion shares changed hands with 
1,169 advancing and 2,001 declining. New highs/new lows on the 
NYSE were 242/11 and on the NASDAQ it was 144/17. 

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac the Santa Claus Rally is 
scheduled to begin on December 23rd and should continue through 
the last five trading days of the year and into the first two 
days of the New Year. Since 1969 the S&P has averaged 1.7% gains 
during this time but it is important to note that if this rally 
fails to materialize it has often been a harbinger of bear 
markets ahead. The saying is "If Santa Claus should fail to call 
- bears may come to Broad and Wall."

Retailers are gearing up for one of their best weeks of the year 
although recent data of retail sales doesn't look too good. Data 
from ShopperTrak of Chicago estimated that retail sales on 
Saturday were down 7% compared with the same Saturday last year. 
The research group took into account two additional shopping days 
between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year so the slowdown is 
"a little alarming" said Bill Martin, co-founder of the research 
group.  Many midprice retailers tried to spur sales with sharp 
price cuts and discounting was so steep at some major stores that 
experts aren't sure whether retailers can bring home the 4.5% 
sales gains the industry has projected for the 2004 season. 
Retailers are blaming the lack of a trendy holiday gimmick and 
high energy costs for the slowdown. Doesn't this sound like Krispy 
Kreme blaming its woes on the low carb craze?

However, there are some retailers that haven't been affected by 
high energy costs, retailers like Apple (AAPL). Apple's can't 
ship its portable music player, iPod, fast enough giving rise to 
Lehman Brothers raising its profit outlook and target price on 
AAPL. Lehmen expects AAPL will post first quarter revenue up $0.1 
billion. Interestingly AAPL closed at 62.72 down -2.27 for the 
day. 

In other news Exelon (EXC) has agreed to merge with Public 
Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG) for $12.81 billion in stock 
thus creating the largest power generator in the country. Under 
the merger agreement, which both boards unanimously agreed to, 
each PEG common share will be converted into 1.225 shares of EXC 
so PEG stockholder will ultimately own 32% of EXC's pro forma 
shares. EXC closed at 43.05 up +1.19 and PEG closed at 50.59 up 
+3.29. Obviously Wall Street likes this merger. 


The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the National 
Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), the New York Stock 
Exchange (NYSE) and Edward D. Jones & Co. have tentatively agreed 
to a $75 million settlement due to the brokerage firm's practice 
of steering its investors to mutual funds from which they 
received compensation without disclosing the fact to the 
investor. Last year the SEC fined Morgan Stanley $50 million for 
conflicts of interest which included the same practice. 

The only economic report out today was the Leading Indicators 
index (LEI), a report of 10 different economic indicators 
compiled by a private research group, the Conference Board.  Of 
the 10 indicators, six increased in November: stock prices, real 
money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment 
insurance, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new 
orders for non-defense capital goods, and manufacturers’ new 
orders for consumer goods and materials. The four negative 
indicators were: vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing 
hours, building permits, and interest rate spread. The overall 
LEI had fallen for the last five straight months showing that the 
economy's momentum was running out of steam and giving rise to 
worries of inflation but today the conference board announced 
that overall LEI increased to 0.2% after a revised 0.4% decline 
the month before. Economists had expected to see a gain of 0.1% 
for the month. 

Although this report looks good lifting up the hood we find some 
problems. The report's performance this year hasn't corresponded 
particularly well with actual economic performance and a survey 
of top economists finds that they are not placing tremendous 
emphasis on the report this year. 

On to the charts. 

DOW Daily

 

Although the DOW looked weak intraday when you look at it on the 
daily chart you see a pretty healthy looking chart with the 
exception of the MACD divergence. This market could drop all the 
way back to the triple bottom at about 10400 before you see a 
hint of a trend change. I think the bulls are still doing OK. 

DOW Weekly

 

Looking at the DOW on a weekly chart you start to see that it may 
be hitting a resistance that could be quite difficult to get 
through. 

SPX daily

 

Once again although the intraday chart of the SPX was anything 
but bullish the daily chart tells the real story and this is a 
bullish chart if you ever saw one. However, things need to cool 
off a bit and the MACD may be telling us that that is exactly 
what the SPX may be doing. 

NASDAQ daily

 

The NAZ has a similar chart to the SPX but with some differences 
that are worth noting. First of all the MACD is more bearish in 
that the slow line is starting to curve up in the SPX but not in 
the NAZ; the NAZ is at the bottom of it channel and much more of 
a move downwards could mean the trend changes and the bearish 
double top is confirmed; then we have the double top on the NAZ 
whereas it is a higher high on the SPX. 

Tomorrow, Morgan Stanley (MWD) and Bear Stearns (BSC) are the 
only two S&P 500 components with earnings before the bell while 
General Mills (GIS) is expected to report quarterly results 
during market hours.  There will be no economic data out until 
final Q3 GDP readings hit the wires on Wednesday at 8:30 ET.

One last note - in a New York Federal Reserve 1996 study on what 
indicators were the most reliable predictors of a recession, only 
one of six indicators measured that was significantly reliable 
was an inverted yield curve. They later did a private study with 
over 20 factors and still the only dependable indicator was the 
inverted yield curve. So what is an inverted yield curve? Well 
normally, short term rates are lower than long term rates because 
investors want to be compensated for the risk of the longer 
holding period. But sometimes short terms rates rise above long 
term rates, giving rise to what is known as an inverted yield 
curve. What this 1996 (and subsequent studies) have found is that 
when the yield curve is inverted or negative for 90 days, you 
typically get a recession in about 12 months. The last time we 
had a inverted yield curve was August 2000 and according to John 
Maudlin of Frontlinethoughts.com a recession after a 90 day 
inverted yield curve is more than typical. He states, in the US, 
every time we have had a period of negative yield curves, we have 
had a recession within a year. Should we start to worry? Not yet.

The US yield curve is slowly flattening but is not inverted and 
is not signaling a recession but Mr. Maudlin has spotted a 
worrisome inverted yield curve in England. I won't go into the 
dept that Mr. Maudlin did but suffice it to say he has found 
enough similarities between the two economies for us to take note 
and watch to see if this may be our canary in the mine for a 
recession heading our way. In any advent I would start watching 
the yield curve and if it inverts start to take action for a 
possible recession. You can watch the yield curve on 
stockcharts.com, which has a tres cool dynamic yield curve. 

Remember plan your trade and trade your plan. 

Jane Fox
 
************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Santa Claus Rally, or a Grinch-like pinch?

According to The Stock Trader's Almanac, traders and investors 
look for the "Santa Claus Rally" to present itself around 
Wednesday, September 22.  

Will Santa be showing up to the bull's pen this season?  Or will 
the "Santa Claus Rally" be proved untrue, with a bearish carol 
being lead by Cindy Lou Who?

I think we'll have our answer on Wednesday at 3 (PM EST), if 
you've been checking your list, I think you'll agree.  Here are 
the levels a trader should use, for if you don't, you may be 
singing the blues.

Santa should pack his sleigh and be on his way, with Wednesday's 
January Crude Oil (cl05f) $45.64 -1.38% settlement pointing the 
way.  It's Rudolf in front that guides with his nose, so an 
equity bull needs January Crude Oil to settle below this past 
Friday's close ($46.28).

Once a trader sees oil's Wednesday settlement, then an SPX break 
of 1,205 is the only remaining bullish pediment, and if that is 
broken higher late Wednesday afternoon, then its SPX 1,124 by 
December 31 at noon.

But in the northeastern U.S. it has been frigid cold, which has 
given boost to heating oil, a derivation of "black gold."  A 
Wednesday settlement much above $46.36, where a trader might 
still give or take an inch, will most likely give hint that it's 
the year of the Grinch.  A higher trade in oil, should have a 
bear feeling fine, as the lower level is broken, that's SPX 
1,189.

Bullish levels = Oil below $46.28, SPX above 1,205.

Bearish levels = Oil above $46.36, SPX below 1,189. 

U.S. Market Watch - 12/20/04 Close

 

Both the SPX and BIX.X saw brief morning trade at their WEEKLY 
R1s, but I have got a feeling (based on observations) that buyers 
and sellers are waiting on something.  

A lot of economic data to be released on Wednesday (final Q3 GDP) 
and Thursday (November durable orders, personal income, personal 
spending, new home sales; plus weekly jobless claims and revised 
Univ. Michigan sentiment).

Session lows for the NDX/QQQQ came close to WEEKLY S1s and give 
the observation that this is the index of weakness near-term, 
while the SOX.X takes on the look of a bystander, fluctuating on 
a lagging basis, both up and down relative to the NDX/QQQQ.

After trading its "neckline" of a reverse head/shoulder top at 
545 on Tuesday of last week, the Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 
528.50 -0.35% has seen four-straight sessions of decline, with 
drugmakers Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) $24.29 -5.66% and Astrazeneca 
(NYSE:AZN) $37.29 +0.51% offsetting bullish investor enthusiasm 
that may have been sparked by OSI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:OSIP) 
$69.41 +1.5% the past two sessions.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 12/20/04 Close

 

As I look at both the NYSE and NASDAQ NH/NL indications, I think 
of Santa's reindeer.  I would analyze the current readings as 
being analogous to the reindeer being harnessed and ready to pull 
Santa's sleigh higher.  Both the 10-day NH/NL ratios look to have 
stabilized for another pull higher, but it may just be the trade 
in oil that keeps Santa from shouting, "Now Dasher!, now, 
Dancer!, now Prancer and Vixen!  On, Comet!, on, Cupid!, on 
Donner and Blitzen! To the top of the porch! To the top of the 
wall! Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

January Crude Oil futures (cl05f) - Daily Intervals

 

On Friday, CNBC's Rick Santelli noted the technical "resistance" 
of Friday's trade in oil at the 61.8% retracement of our 
conventional (blue) retracement of the August low to October 
high.  I will also make note that the January Heating Oil futures 
(ho05f) traded a high of $1.468 on Friday, which would be that 
contract's 19.1% "fitted retracement" (pink) level, where its 
price action certainly suggests to me that heating oil 
inventories and weather forecasts for the northeast part of the 
U.S. are still driving crude oil prices.  

In today's 01:00 PM EST update, I did make note that some heating 
oil traders thought today's decline in heating oil was due to 
updated weather forecasts for the northeast, which showed a 
"warming trend" being forecasted for the next couple of weeks.  
However, I think it will be trader's ACTIONS that speak louder 
than words, where I've defined a "level of trade" for Wednesday's 
settlement, for a bullish or bearish bias, which would come AFTER 
the weekly energy inventory figures, will most likely be weighed 
against the next couple of weeks weather forecasts.

January Heating Oil futures (ho05f) - Daily Intervals

 

One could argue that it is/was the 61.8% retracement level on 
Crude Oil's chart that kept heating oil from rising above $1.465 
on Friday.  However, a heating oil BEAR would also be utilizing a 
"fitted 38.2%" to pick out the $1.465 level as a level to short 
against with a tight stop.  Traders can probably see where crude 
oil and heating oil, at Friday's highs may be the "line in the 
sand" between a Santa Clause rally, or a Grinch-like trade for 
the major averages into the end of the year.

March e-mini S&P 500 futures (es05h) - Daily Intervals

 

As January Crude Oil futures (cl05f) have risen to my "key level 
of resistance," we can perhaps visualize, or see how S&P futures 
traders now "care" what oil is doing as it may have risen to a 
"key level," which has bearish broader market implications.

Right now, as of tonight's settlements... Oil can't get a 
settlement above $46.36, while e-mini S&P futures (es05h) can't 
find a settlement below 1,192.75.

I think the e-mini S&P futures recent two settlements (including 
today) suggest a market that is waiting for something, perhaps 
jittery about oil prices again.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

The SPX.X looks like it wants to gravitate toward overlapping 
WEEKLY S1 and its WEEKLY 80.9% retracement at this point.  Almost 
as if being "pulled lower" right now by NDX/QQQQ.  A break of 
today's lows may well see such trade into Wednesday's oil 
inventory data, where traders wait for a response.

Pivot Matrix - 

 

DAILY S1 would add another level of correlative support to the 
SPX at 1,190 level tomorrow, while OEX Daily R1 and MONTHLY R1 
sets the upper-end of a daily range into Wednesday's EIA weekly 
energy statistics.

Yield curve action continues to flatten, and today's selling in 
Treasuries did have the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) rising from just 
above the WEEKLY Pivot.  My thoughts here (pivot matrix and 10-
year) is if equity bulls are going to get any possible help from 
a steepening yield curve, then perhaps WEEKLY Pivot yield support 
becomes a level that needs to hold.

Jeff Bailey
 

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 12-20-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: GOOG, ZBRA	
Dropped Calls: EBAY, OSK
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Oil, Engines and a big radar list.


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

GOOG - call play -
  We have been triggered in GOOG.  Shares opened at $182
  and quickly ran to a high of $188.46.  Our entry point to 
  go long was $183.01.   Early rumors that GOOG might offer
  a stock split soon may have accounted for this morning's 
  strength.  
 
 
ZBRA - call play -
  ZBRA dipped to support at its 10-dma, 40-dma and 200-dma
  before bouncing back over the $54 level.  This looks like a
  possible bullish entry point but we would look for some 
  confirmation. 


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 114.65 chg: -0.10 stop: 113.99  

Monday was not a good day for EBAY.  Shares tried to rally at the 
open but failed near $116.25 and then faded toward support near 
$114 by 1:00 PM ET.  That initial test dipped to $113.98, which 
was enough to stop us out at $113.99.  Shares consolidated 
sideways above the $114 level the rest of the sessions and were 
beginning to bounce in the last 20 minutes of trading.  We are 
not suggesting new bullish positions but aggressive traders may 
want to watch and see if EBAY can rally from its simple 21-dma 
(113.95).  

Picked on November 08 at $103.69 
Change since picked:      +10.96
Earnings Date           10/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      10.4 million 
Chart =


---

Oshkosh Truck - OSK - close: 67.71 change: +0.81 stop: 63.49     

Target achieved!  OSK out performed the broader markets to add 
another 1.2 percent on Monday.  Shares traded up and through our 
exit point at $67.50 so we are closing our play as planned.  If 
you are the type of trader who likes to let stocks run we 
strongly suggest you consider tightening your stop loss.

Picked on November 07 at $ 62.16
Change since picked:      + 5.55
Earnings Date           10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       205 thousand   
Chart =



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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********
Watch List
**********

ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 51.06 change: +1.26

WHAT TO WATCH: Dow-component XOM was a big player in keeping the 
Industrial average in the green on Monday.  Shares of XOM broke 
out from its short-term trading range to add 2.5 percent on 
decent volume.  Short-term technicals are turning positive and 
its MACD indicator is hinting at a new buy signal soon.  
Unfortunately, XOM has not been a fast mover in spite of its 
long-term up trend.  This might be a better covered-call 
candidate.

Chart=


---

Deere & Co - DE - close: 73.95 change: +0.93

WHAT TO WATCH: We're impressed with DE's relative strength on 
Monday.  The stock added 1.27 percent to breakout above its 
December resistance and hit new seven-month highs.  Shares still 
have major resistance at $75.00 but the stock is working its way 
higher and could push through this level too.  The bullish P&F 
chart points to a $106 price target and its MACD indicator is 
extremely close to a new buy signal.

Chart=


---

Cummins Inc - CMI - close: 82.35 change: +0.55

WHAT TO WATCH: Industrial-type stocks were out performing on 
Monday and CMI joined the group with a new closing high.  We 
would keep an eye on CMI for a potential bullish entry point on a 
bounce from $80.00 or a breakout over $83.00.  Be sure to only 
use risk capital as CMI is trading near its trendline of 
resistance.  You can see it if you stretch a trendline across its 
peaks over the last several months.  The bullish P&F chart points 
to a $112 target.

Chart=


---

Chicago Mercantile Exchange - CME - close: 217.78 change: -2.78

WHAT TO WATCH: If you're really feeling adventurous try picking a 
direction for CME.  Momentum indicators suggest this is a short-
term top for CME but the stock has been faking out the bears for 
months.  In recent months shares have bounced from its simple 40-
dma and more recently near its 21-dma.  If the latter 21-dma 
comes into play again then we might look for a bounce near 
$215.00.  Just be sure to plan your stop loss carefully.  CME is 
extremely overbought and can be somewhat volatile.  The bullish 
P&F chart points to a $236 target.  We still expect a stock split 
announcement any week now.  If we got to pick our entry point 
we'd watch for a bounce from the $200 level as a potential 
bullish play.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

KMRT $98.40 -1.88 - KMRT has broken round-number support at $100 
and pierced technical support at its rising 50-dma but failed to 
close under this moving average.  Is this a hint of a future 
breakdown?

EBAY $114.65 -0.10 - Will EBAY bounce from its 21-dma or 
breakdown and retest the $110 level? 

OXY $58.68 +1.78 - OXY added 3.12 percent on strong volume as it 
out performed the markets and its peers.  Watch for a breakout 
over $60-61.

AET $123.56 +0.85 - If you think this sector (insurance) is a bit 
over bought and due for a pull back then keep an eye on AET.  
Shares are very extended from its October low and its MACD is 
already in a sell signal.  We would watch for a breakdown under 
$120.00.

MCRS $73.29 -1.83 - This software stock looks very overbought and 
the momentum is quickly fading.  A drop under $72.50 or $70.00 
might be an aggressive bearish entry point. 

SYMC $24.04 -1.33 - Uh-oh!  SYMC has broken support at $25.00 and 
its simple and exponential 200-dma's.

PFE $24.29 -1.46 - Bad news for bounce players.  It looks like 
the oversold bounce for PFE has already failed.
 

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