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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 01/03/2005

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 01-03-2005
Copyright 2005, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Volume returns 
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: A replay of 2004?  


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
      01-03-2005           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10729.43 - 53.58 10867.39 10710.07 1.89 bln  646/2170
NASDAQ   2152.15 - 23.29  2191.60  2148.72 2.19 bln  931/2175
S&P 100   572.33 -  2.96   579.11   571.48   Totals 1577/4345
S&P 500  1202.08 -  9.84  1217.90  1200.30
SOX       424.26 -  9.05   437.54   423.60
RUS 2000  640.44 - 11.13   654.30   639.43
DJ TRANS 3760.37 - 37.68  3817.40  3755.65 
VIX        14.08 +  0.79    14.23    13.25
VXO (VIX-O)14.20 +  0.62    14.29    13.46
VXN        19.50 +  0.92    19.78    18.80
Total Volume 4,091M
Total UpVol  1,034M
Total DnVol  2,937M
Total Adv  1577
Total Dcl  4345
52wk Highs  134 
52wk Lows    22
TRIN       1.34
PUT/CALL   0.78 
*******************************************************************

Volume returns
Jonathan Levinson

The big guns returned to the market today after last week's 
siesta, with the Nasdaq trading 2.076B shares and the NYSE 1.5B 
shares.  With increased volume came increased selling, and the 
indices closed just above their session lows.



Daily Dow Chart


The Dow got hit for a 54 point loss, declining just .5% to close 
at 10729.  The relatively mild damage looks worse on the daily 
chart, however, where a gravestone doji printed below the lower 
rising bear wedge trendline.  The session low was 10710, but a 
quick bounce to the 10729 close confirmed 10720 support above the 
10640 line.  The Dow fared far better than its peers, but even 
so, today's action resulted in bearish divergent daily cycle sell 
signals.  If bulls fail to regain at least the 10800 level 
tomorrow, these sell signals should strengthen.  The implied 
target of the broken bear wedge is as low as 10425.


Daily S&P 500 Chart


The SPX got hit harder than the Dow on a percentage basis, losing 
.81% or 9.84 points to close at 1202.  The bear wedge break that 
occurred on the Dow also printed here and did so on higher 
volume, potentially targeting the December lows.  The bearish 
divergence on the daily cycle oscillators is present here as 
well, and suggests a potentially steep decline from here if 1210-
1215 resistance holds.  While it's easy to overlook the "higher 
volume" component of today's action, it's an important point:  
last week's gains took place on significantly lighter, mostly 
retail volume.  The heavy hitters returned today, and sold the 
indices below rising trendline support in place for most of last 
month.  Unless they decide to turn the ship around very soon, the 
bias, which is confirmed by the bearish chart pattern and the 
bearish oscillator divergences, will shift to the downside. 



Daily Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq took the hardest lumps of its peers, losing 1.07% to 
close at 2152.1.  The bear wedge break is the least pronounced 
here however, but the fact remains that the Nasdaq closed 3 
points off its low of the day, below the lower bear wedge support 
line.  Next support is at 2125, followed by the December lows.  
Note that the daily cycle oscillators are ambiguous here within 
their bearish divergences, and a break back above even the 2160 
line would go a long way to restoring last month's uptrend.  In 
other words, the bears are not out of the woods just yet. 


Weekly TNX Chart


Bonds reacted positively to the big miss in November construction 
spending and the slightly better-than-expected ISM data released 
at 10AM (see details below).  Bonds rose from their session lows 
at and continued the advance for most of the day, with ten year 
note yields closing higher by 0.7 bps at 4.219% after reaching an 
earlier high of 4.261%.  4.26% remains key resistance, 4.14%-
4.16% support.  On the three-year weekly chart, with the most 
recent candle based entirely on today's activity, a weekly cycle 
upphase continues to play out correctively.  A failure to exceed 
4.44% resistance this month would likely spell the end of the 
current upphase from a lower price and oscillator high.  Such an 
outcome would give us a high likelihood of a break below 4.02% 
support, which could set the stage for a bear wedge break to 
target last year's lows.  While my gut is expecting higher, 
rather than lower yields, the chart pattern here appears more 
much more bearish than bullish for the TNX below 4.44%.


Weekly chart of Crude oil


Crude oil got cheaper today, gapping down and sinking lower below 
42 throughout the day to trade a low of 41.275.  The financial 
press attributed the drop to a milder-than-expected winter, but 
given the bounce in the US Dollar and the corollary declines in 
precious metals and commodities across the board, I find that a 
dubious connection at best.  The move brought February crude 
futures back to yet another retest of the sloping head and 
shoulders neckline I've been discussing for the past few weeks, 
and a break of this level would imply a pattern target in the mid 
20's for oil.  Once again, I find that a difficult price to 
imagine, but this is one of the clearer head and shoulders tops 
I've seen.  The daily cycle oscillators have rolled over into a 
new downphase, and if 40.00 support fails, next support comes in 
the 38 area.  For the day, crude oil closed lower by 3.16% at 
42.075 on an upside spike in the final minutes of the afternoon 
session.

There was positive retail news today, as WMT announced that 
December's food and general merchandise sales exceeded its 
expectations last week and is forecasting a 3% increase in sales 
for the month over 2003's levels.  This represented an 
improvement over its previous forecast in the middle of the 1%-3% 
range.  WMT noted a big increase in gift card redemptions in the 
final week of December over 2003's figures.  For the day, WMT 
rose 1.1% to close at 53.40.

Walgreen (WAG) announced its Q1 results, exceeding estimates by 2 
cents at 31 cents EPS for the quarter (excluding a 15M pretax, 
one time gain from litigation settlements). WAG attributed the 
good results to strong prescription and general merchandise sales 
as well as higher gross margins.  Q1 earnings were $332.7M or 32 
cents per share, up from 254.9M or 25 cents during the previous 
year, a 30.4% increase.  Sales were higher by 13.4% to 9.89B.  
WAG blasted higher, gaining 5% to close at 40.29.

The last-minute/end-of-December surge in reported sales prompted 
one analyst, Greenwich Capital Markets' Steve Stanley to conclude 
that procrastination may be the biggest trend in retail this 
year.  In a separate report, Goldman Sachs, Harris Interactive 
and Nielsen/Netratings' eSpending Report found that online 
shopping by US consumers rose from a total value of 18.5B in 2003 
to 23.2B in 2004, with clothing, toys, video games and 
electronics the top categories.  The S&P Retail Index, the RLX, 
closed lower by .41% at 460.09.

Colin Powell and Florida Governor Jeb Bush are leading a 
delegation to Thailand, Indonesia and possibly Sri Lanka, three 
of the nations hardest hit by the tsunami in the Indian Ocean.  
Powell said that the problem now is not money, with 2B in 
international aid including 350M pledged by the US, but rather 
its responsible distribution and use. Powell acknowledged that 
the true extent of the damage was not initially appreciated, and 
stated that the reconstruction effort could last years.  
Associated Press reported that aid agencies currently place the 
death toll around 140,000 and expect it to rise to 150,000.

Despite Powell's comments, the President enlisted the assistance 
of his father and Bill Clinton to appeal directly to the public 
for additional relief aid and donations.  As well, Reuters 
reported that the President is referring to the 350M as an 
"initial commitment," holding out the promise of more to follow.

At 10AM the market received its lone economic reports, November 
construction spending and the December ISM manufacturing index.  
Construction spending declined for the first time in 10 months, 
losing 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis and falling well short 
of expectations of a 0.5% gain.  Private building spending 
declined .6%, the largest drop since January 2002, while spending 
on home construction declined .4%, the largest drop in almost 3 
years.

The Institute of Supply Management reported that its 
manufacturing index rose to 58.6% in December from its 57.8% 
reading in November.  Expectations were for 58.5%.  The 
employment component fell to 52.7% from 57.6%, while new orders 
rose from 61.5% to 67.4%.  The employment index fell from 57.6% 
to 52.7%.  Readings above 50% indicate expansion.

In other news the US' largest futures exchange, the Chicago 
Mercantile Exchange, reported its 5th consecutive record volume 
year in 2004 above 787M contracts.  Average daily volume rose 26% 
to 3.1+ million contracts.

For tomorrow, we have another light menu of economic reports, 
with auto sales and truck sales being reported, as well as 
factory orders for November.  Volume was back to normal levels 
today after last week's light holiday trade, and so far the bias 
has been to the downside.  With last week's strength on mostly 
light/retail volume, I believe that there's a good chance that 
the market was tipping its hand today.  If so, given the very 
bullish sentiment readings and extremely low volatility, there's 
a great deal of potential downside once the upward trend 
reverses.  For that to occur, bears will want to see the 
resistance levels noted above hold for any retest tomorrow, more 
support levels broken and more technical damage to rule out the 
possibility that today was yet another fleeting downside 
correction in the autumn's ongoing rally.  With December's rising 
support lines broken, however, bears have taken a promising first 
step. 
 

************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

A replay of 2004?

Not unlike the first trading session of 2004, stocks jumped 
higher at the opening bell on Monday, but then reversed those 
gains to finish lower.

A mixed reading from the Institute for Supply Management's 
manufacturing index, which showed robust order growth being 
matched by a jump in inventories, drew confusion and concern from 
traders.  While the employment index fell to 52.7 from November's 
57.6 gain, the decline in the employment reading wasn't overly 
surprising, as hiring at the manufacturing level tends to stall 
from the Thanksgiving holiday toward the end of the year.

Having discussed the possibility that tax-gain and tax-loss might 
influence trade in December and early January, some of last 
year's biggest percentage gainers and losers among the indices 
followed in our U.S. Market Watch may have been subject to some 
tax-related trade.

Two of the more notable sector losers from last year had the AMEX 
Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 206.54 -4.08% and Semiconductor Index 
(SOX.X) 424.26 -2.08% not finding much of what I would consider 
to be a "tax-loss" bounce relief, if investors had been locking 
in all their losses in late December.

U.S. Market Watch - 

 

The Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 14.08 +5.94% rose for a 
third-straight session to close above 14.00.  I make note of this 
as we'd have to go back to the November 3 close of 14.04 to find 
this level of volatility.

I make note of this as we saw strong price gains for the major 
indices continue from early November, where prior to the VIX's 
recent low reading of 11.14, there had been comment and 
observations that in 2004, VIX.X readings below 14.00 were 
quickly reversed, with stocks falling.  

On November 3, 2004, the SPX closed at 1,143.  

I've been monitoring the SPX.X option chain in recent days after 
Linda Piazza and I both noted some DIVERGENCE between the VIX.X 
and the VXO.X on December 29, 2004, when the VXO.X gapped higher 
at the open of that session's trade, while the VIX.X gapped 
lower.

Linda follows the VXO.X 14.20 +4.56% and S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 
572.33 -0.51% on an hour-by-hour basis, and perhaps she has made 
some notes at to suspicious option trading.

I'll note for that a third-straight session, most active puts 
have been well out the money in the SPX, with today's most active 
at the Sep.05 900 put (SXB-UT) (21,464 : 44,197), where near-term 
action had the Jan. 1,240 call (SZP-AH) (11,876 : 8,346) and Jan. 
1,175 put (SPT-MO) (10,162 : 33,309) the top three most active 
options.

What I've been seeing is some longer-term out the money puts, at 
a rather low price, being the larger volume trade the past three 
sessions, where "excessive" buying of these puts can have VIX.X 
rising from an extremely low level of volatility.  

While today's action in the 1,240 calls (SZP-AH) was at an 
average high/low/close of $2.87, I would have to think it was 
largely call selling (lower VIX.X) and if today's average premium 
was added to the 1,240 strike, would come pretty darned close to 
the newly calculated MONTHLY R2 in our pivot matrix for the 
SPX.X.  

At the same time, if I were to take the 1,175 strike of the Jan. 
1,175 puts and add the average price of $3.58, I can come close 
to the MONTHLY S1 of 1,184.68.  My bigger note at this time would 
be that the 1,175 put action was a recent "Max Pain" theory value 
for the SPX January expiration, but that has now moved higher to 
1,200, where there is a lot of open interest 25 points either 
side of the 1,175 strike for January.

Based on some of the very late-session selling/declines on light 
volume trade for Thursday and Friday, and today's action, even 
before the 10:00 AM release of economic data, my gut feeling is 
that there was some pre-determined selling already set for 
today's session.

Perhaps some "dollar bears" took some gains today, as the U.S. 
Dollar Index (dx00y) 81.37 +0.64% rose rather notably considering 
an "inline" ISM report.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 01/03/05 Close

 

Volumes at both the NYSE and NASDAQ returned to that found just 
prior to the Christmas holiday.

Last week, I didn't think we could read much into the internals, 
and price action of the major averages, as it not all market 
participants were around to cast their votes.

However, on Friday, I thought to myself that today's trade might 
be more telling and that I would think a bull wanted to see new 
highs at BOTH the NYSE and NASDAQ reach something above the 200 
level, regardless of what today's price action brought 
(regardless as I don't know what impact continued tax-gain/tax-
loss selling might be having).  

A couple of weeks ago, when both the NYSE and NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL 
ratio's were easing lower, I said that when the major indices 
most likely resumed bullishness for their "Santa Claus Rally," I 
wanted to keep a close eye on the NH/NL indications, and compare 
them to what we observed in December, January and February of 
last year.

While today is just one day of trade, just as January 2, 2004 was 
one day of trade last year, both look pretty much the same.  If I 
could revisit my "feelings" from January 2, 2004, I'd probably 
say they felt the same too as it relates to the market's 
internals.

On January 2, 2004, the first trading day of 2004, the NYSE 5-day 
NH/NL ratio was 97.7% and its 10-day NH/NL ratio was 98.1%, with 
the 5-day SMA just falling below its 10-day NH/NL ratio.  Almost 
identical to that found today.

On January 2, 2004, the first trading day of 2004, the NASDAQ 5-
day NH/NL ratio was rising 98.4% and the 10-day NH/NL ratio was 
just reversing up 3-boxes to 96.3%.  

There are a lot of similarities already developing this year 
(2005) as we saw in early January of last year.  

Are we looking at a replay of 2005?

Many traders and investors will be monitoring the first five (5) 
trading days of 2005, where since 1950, the Stock Trader's 
Almanac notes that of the 34 up "first five days," 29 were 
followed by full-year gains.  Heck, make that of the 35 up "first 
five days," 30 were followed by full-year gains, as last January, 
the SPX traded up five days after its January 31, 2003 close of 
1,111.92 close.  Including 2004, this would have the "first five 
day" predictor of market direction bullishly accurate 85.7% of 
the time.  Of the five exceptions, 1994 was a flat year, and four 
were war-related.

Of the 20 down First Five Days, 10-years were down, 10-years were 
up.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - Daily Intervals

 

Early gains didn't quite get a test of overlapping resistance at 
the 1,218-1,219 level, though the SPX.X did just pierce its 
WEEKLY R1 of 1,217.9.  A meteoric-looking 21-day SMA and MONTHLY 
Pivot/WEEKLY S2 would provide near-term support.  If the first 
five day's of 2005 are going to post a gain, then WEEKLY Pivot of 
1,211.46 provides the modest-looking gain.

Prior to my checking of January "Max Pain" for the SPX.X, it 
showed a reading of 1,175, which is correlative with the MONTHLY 
19.1% retracement of 1,174.07, while today's check of January 
"Max Pain" would be marked at the MONTHLY Pivot of 1,201.00.

Friday night I was reviewing just how the SPX traded within its 
MONTHLY pivot matrix back in January of 2004.  On the above 
chart, I make note that the SPX traded up to its MONTHLY R2, and 
never did trade its MONTHLY Pivot.  

With internals measures almost identical to that found in January 
of 2004, just one year ago today, I think it important for bulls 
to defend the WEEKLY S2 if we're going to see some bullish 
"January effect" take place.

In tonight's Market Monitor archive, at 07:17:30, I posted the 
December 2003-February 2004 MONTHLY Pivot Matrix

Pivot Matrix -

 

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 01-03-2005
Copyright 2005, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: ACL, BDK, CTX, ETR, FSH, JCI, RAI  	
Dropped Calls: GOOG
Dropped Puts:  None
Watch List: Breakouts and Breakdowns! 


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

ACL - call play -
  The market pull back on Monday lead ACL to a 2.17 percent loss.
  Shares did bounce from support at $78 but we would be cautious here.
  The MACD has produced a new sell signal.
 
BDK - call play -
  BDK has produced a failed rally at the $90.00 resistance.  Look for a 
  retest of technical support at the rising 40-dma.
 
 
CTX - call play -
  CTX is also failing at the $60 resistance level.  If the market continues
  to pull back we would lok for a retest of support near $56.
 
 
ETR - call play -
  ETR is also seeing some profit taking and we would be cautious with
  the technicals turning south.  Watch for a bounce from its 50-dma.
 
 
FSH - call play -
  Like many of last month's winners FSH is seeing some profit taking.
  Watch for a possible bounce from round-number support at $60.00.
 
 
JCI - call play -
  JCI is seeing some profit taking and could retrace back to the 
  $62 level and its rising 40-dma.  Look for the bounce before 
  considering new positions. 
  
RAI - call play -
  Tobacco stocks also saw some profit taking on Monday.  
  Look for the bounce before considering new positions.


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

Google Inc - GOOG - close: 202.71 change: +9.92 stop: 189.99     

We exited GOOG on Friday when shares hit our profit target in the 
$199-200 range.  Readers to the MarketMonitor were alerted to our 
exit.  More aggressive traders may want to keep the play open 
especially now that GOOG has broken through resistance at the 
$200-201 level to close at new all-time highs.  However, if you 
do choose to hold the play we would significantly tighten our 
stop and we would not hold over the February lock up expiration.

Picked on December 20 at $183.01
Change since picked:      +19.70
Earnings Date           01/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        10 million  
Chart =



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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Progressive Corp - PGR - close: 87.55 change: +2.71

WHAT TO WATCH: We have had PGR on the watch list twice in the 
last week as we alerted readers to the prospect of an upside 
breakout in the stock price.  That breakout occurred today with a 
three percent rally and a breakout over resistance at $86 and its 
21-dma.  The technical picture is improving with a new MACD buy 
signal.  This looks like an entry point. 

Chart=


---

First Bancorp - FBP - close: 64.51 change: +1.00

WHAT TO WATCH: The month-long consolidation in FBP could be 
nearing its end soon.  The pattern of higher lows looks tempting 
and the technical picture is improving.  Look for a breakout over 
$65.50 or $66.00 and use it as a bullish entry point.  The P&F 
chart is very bullish with a long-term $126 target.

Chart=


---

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 95.07 change: -2.44

WHAT TO WATCH: With the Dow Industrials in retreat on Monday 
shares of CAT are looking over extended and investors decided to 
take some money off the table.  The sell-off paused at the $95 
level.  A breakdown under $94 could lead to another test of the 
$89-90 region where CAT bounced in early December.  Technicals 
are bearish and its MACD is in a sell signal.  Bulls may want to 
watch for CAT to bounce from the $90 level.

Chart=


---

Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 60.88 change: -0.80

WHAT TO WATCH: ERTS is another high-flying stock from December 
that looks very overbought and ready for some profit taking.  If 
shares crack $60 aggressive traders may want to use it as a 
short-term bearish entry point.  The MACD indicator has already 
crossed into a sell signal.  Watch for support at $55.00.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

GOOG $202.71 +9.92 - Goldman raised their estimates on GOOG today 
and shares responded with a $10 move and a breakout over 
resistance in the 200-201 region.  This could be an aggressive 
players bullish entry point.  The bullish P&F chart points to 
$262. 

KMRT $100.10 +1.15 - We still think that KMRT looks like a 
straddle candidate or some other direction neutral spread 
strategy as the stock should breakout big one way or the other 
soon.
 

*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you may go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


**********
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**********

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