The Fed raised rates by 25 points for the 15th consecutive increase. No surprise in that event. The Fed also kept its language from the last meeting exactly the same. "The committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance." While that was the official "expected" language there was a considerable amount of speculation that the Fed would soften it to suggest an end to hikes at the next meeting. By retaining the current language Fed watchers now feel there is a rising chance of an additional rate hike in June. The Fed funds futures spiked again to price in about a 16% chance of two additional hikes. This may not be a high probability bet but before the Fed announcement the chances of an additional hike in June had slipped to nearly zero.
Dow Chart - 30 min
Nasdaq Chart - Daily
The Fed published a larger announcement than normal and this was the key paragraph for the bulls.
"The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures."
If you translate this into English it reads like this. The economy slowed to a standstill in Q4 due to the hurricanes on the Gulf coast. The economy rebounded strongly in Q1 as a result of the rebuilding efforts and replacement of damaged goods in the area. The GDP for Q1 is likely to be over 5% due to this rebuilding/replacement cycle but that level will not be sustained. The Fed believes that growth will moderate to a more sustainable level in the 3.5%-4.0% range. However, while core inflation is currently well contained there are substantial risks to the upside. Specifically energy and commodity prices continue to produce concerns.
You should note in the official statement above that energy was mentioned twice in the same paragraph on a day when crude prices closed over $66. Natural gas prices for the December 2006 contract closed at $10.37, less than $2 below the 2005 contract high and more than +$3 over the highs seen in 2004. These prices for natural gas are even more amazing when you realize that gas storage levels are at +67% above the five-year average thanks to the warmest winter in decades. Clearly the Fed is concerned about the impact of these high energy prices on inflation and on the economy. The good news is the Fed thinks the economy is still growing strongly enough for them to continue raising rates.
The markets did not celebrate the Fed's positive view on the economy. The Dow plunged to 11147 and -104 intraday. The constant chatter on CNBC about the potential for two more hikes kept the pressure on the indexes and there was no material attempt to rally after the announcement. Normally the Fed announcement is met with a strong directional move that is reversed by the close of trading. We did not see that today.
The morning started out with a sharp spike in Consumer Confidence to 107.2 in March from an upwardly revised 102.7 in February. This was nearly a four-year high. Expectations increased +5.7 and present conditions by +3.0. Consumers felt the labor markets were improving and there were indications that those planning to buy homes increased. Concerns were given as rising interest rates, higher gasoline prices and increasing debt levels. Still this was a strong indicator for the bulls. Rising confidence means consumers have cash to spend and this is good for the markets.
Also bullish for the markets was Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey. The headline number jumped to 21 in March from zero in February and negative readings for the prior two months. New orders jumped from 6 to 22 and the order backlog rose to -1 from -13. Shipments jumped to 26 from 2. These were positive numbers reflecting the current situation. However, the six-month outlook fell to 46 from 71 for -25 point drop. This suggests the index is still reflecting the Q1 rebound but the expectations mirror the Fed's outlook for slowing growth.
Wednesday is a blank for material economic reports but Thursday and Friday are loaded. Thursday has GDP, Help Wanted and the Kansas Fed Survey. Friday has Personal Income, NY-NAPM, Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI and Factory Orders. All of these reports are expected to show economic improvement. This should set the stage and provide fuel for any end of quarter window dressing.
With no earnings news on Tuesday and the majority of the chatter about the Fed we were left with energy as the only major sector with any gains. Diamond Offshore was the clear winner for the sector as it broke resistance at $84 and sprinted for a +5.45 gain to $87.87 and a new all time high. Pushing energy stocks higher was a +$1.90 surge in oil prices to more than $66. The breakout over resistance at $65.50 came on a variety of factors. There was a threat of a strike in Norway and a strike in progress in France. Oil loading in Iraq was halted by bad weather and militants were still active in Nigeria.
The biggest pressure to prices was a Wall Street Journal report that an oil ETF could begin trading as early as next week. This is expected to produce a huge surge in futures buying once the millions of retail traders are able to invest in oil futures as easily as buying shares of the QQQQ. We saw monster moves in the underlying commodity when the gold ETF began trading. The Streetracks Gold ETF (GLD) now controls over $6 billion of gold bullion. With the huge interest in oil and the coming Peak Oil problem the buying in an oil ETF is likely to be huge. We already have the S&P-500 Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Oil Service Holders (OIH) but nothing available for retail traders to actually trade crude. The American Stock Exchange is preparing to introduce the ETF on Monday, which will trade under the symbol USO. The exchange has yet to receive final regulatory approval but that is expected this week. The initial price will be the price of the current crude oil contract at the NYMEX exchange. This should be a major event in the oil sector and should boost the prices of oil companies with actual reserves more than drillers and service sector companies. All will benefit but those with real reserves and production should benefit from the upward pressure on crude oil prices. The advent of the ETF could actually provide some additional stability to the price of oil due to the large number of futures contracts expected to be controlled by the ETF managers, Victoria Bay Asset Management. This will also make it easier for mutual funds to play oil in a liquid investment vehicle just like they do with other sectors through existing iShares and ETFs.
May Crude Oil Chart - Daily
December Crude Oil Chart
Peter Thiel was on CNBC today making some interesting comments. Thiel sold PayPal to Ebay for $1.5 billion a couple years ago. He currently makes between $70-$100 million a year from his various investments. One of those investments is NOT a home. He feels so strongly that the housing bubble is going to burst that he sold his own home and is now renting. I have trouble understanding his concern. Since he could pay cash for any home he wanted, say a $5 million fixer-upper, it would only be pocket change for his current income level not to mention his huge investment holdings. Thiel says he expects home prices to fall -15% to -20% soon. Even using his -20% number that would only mean a -$1 million hit on the $5 million home I used as an example. If you are sitting on more than $2 billion in cash, stock and investments and make $100 million a year I commend him on his cautionary housing stance but I believe it is misplaced. But then I don't have $2 billion. Maybe that is how you gain it by cutting corners. A million here, a million there and pretty soon you have some real money. Thiel also warned about the coming energy crisis. He predicts oil prices will be in the $100-$150 range within the next five years. While I might not agree with his frugality in housing I do agree with his energy warning. Maybe this means I should sell my home and invest the proceeds in the new crude oil ETF. (grin)
The rise in oil prices on Tuesday did not depress the equity market. If anything it provided support for the market with nearly every energy stock posting gains. On Wednesday we get the weekly inventory numbers and analysts expect a build in crude of +1.3 mb but a drop in gasoline of -1.5 mb and a drop in distillates of -1.2 mb. Since a some of the gain today was due to geopolitical concerns we are at risk for a decline in prices on stronger than expected supplies. The geopolitical risk headlines typically have a short shelf life of about 24 hours. Unless there is additional news the political bounces are normally short lived. If crude declines then transports could recover and provide support to the broader market. The wildcard here is the oil ETF. Speculators trying to get into crude ahead of the start of trading on the USO could keep prices steady.
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Where are the markets going now? The Fed is behind us and the end of the quarter is just ahead. In theory nothing has changed from the market stance that got us to this level. The Fed was generally assumed to be targeting 5.0% and that is now guaranteed by today's statement. The economy was already assumed to be slowing from its Q1 rebound rate and the Fed statement simply agrees with that outlook. Inflation "remains contained" according to the Fed and that takes the pressure off the Fed to overshoot. I just don't see any material change in the outlook but then the markets failed to rebound out of the post Fed dip. Buy the rumor, sell the news appeared to be the game plan today.
We know from historical patterns that the day after a Fed meeting is down more often than not regardless of the Fed action. However there was no real rally ahead of the event and that should prevent any material reaction dip beyond what we saw after the announcement. If determining market direction were as simple as making a couple assumptions based on historical trends then we would already know which way to bet. However, market direction after a Fed meeting is never a sure thing and the market exists to humble as many speculators as possible.
With that said I am crawling out on that limb along with my bias for all to see. I believe the quarter end cash flow would normally trump the post Fed letdown. However, AMG Data reported that investors withdrew -$1.7 billion from mutual funds for the week ended Wednesday March-22nd. Trimtabs reported inflows the prior week of only +$1.5 billion compared to +$3.5 billion in the week before that. This paints a picture of decreasing cash flow for two consecutive weeks and that corresponds with the stall by the indexes at the current levels. For whatever reason it appears on the surface that investors are losing confidence in the markets after the early March rebound. We could be seeing some withdrawals for tax payments as the income tax deadline draws closer. We may also be seeing the early adopters from the sell in May and go away crowd. For whatever the reason the cash flow from retail investors appears to be slowing.
Russell 2000 Chart - Daily
This is not the same retirement cash we normally see flowing into funds at the end of quarter. Those retirement contributions are typically routine and not taxable. The bottom line: For the last two weeks I have been cautious about the markets after their stall at the new highs. Last Tuesday the indexes rallied sharply and then imploded into the close giving back all their gains and ending with big losses. I turned negative given the volume and the appearance of a climax spike. Buyers rushed in and the Nasdaq finally found traction and completed a four-day uptrend. Meanwhile the Dow and S&P moved sideways. Today's post Fed drop knocked the Dow back to 11150 and the S&P to 1293. Both were new two-week lows that came after lower highs. Normally this would produce a negative bias but the Nasdaq and Russell have failed to confirm. The Russell gave up only -2 points today after setting a new historic high. The Nasdaq failed again at resistance just under 2330 but rebounded on a touch of 2300. These two indexes are a better read of fund bias than the Dow and S&P. As long as funds are putting money into small caps and techs the rally should have legs. "Should" and "could" are the escape words for market pundits. I hate to use those tonight but it is nearly impossible to avoid it since nobody knows the market direction for sure. My bias tonight is for the end of quarter cash flow to offset any post Fed weakness and provide a positive trend for the rest of the week. Funds should take that cash and attempt to paint the tape to show the best results possible at quarter end. Positive results convince fund investors to let it ride and that is the goal for fund managers. I am expecting the dip to be bought and a return to the highs before Friday's close. Next week could be a problem with window undressing but we will deal with it when it comes. I cautioned on Sunday to "Sell too Soon" and those who took profits should be in great shape to buy the dip.
Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 101.10 chg: +0.70 stop: 96.95
Oil stocks did well earlier today on a surge in crude oil prices to $66 a barrel. Unfortunately, the rally in oil stocks began to fade this afternoon when the broader market sold-off on the FOMC notes regarding their view on further interest rate hikes. Shares of APC were able to break through resistance at $102 on an intraday basis and our play has been opened at $102.10. The failure to hold its gains today looks like a failed rally for APC so we'd be a bit cautious here about opening new positions. Watch for a bounce from $100.00 or a new move over $102.50 as a bullish entry point. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on March 28 at $102.10
Burlington NrthSanta Fe - BNI - cls: 81.07 chg: -0.66 stop: 78.99
The transportation stocks were feeling a little pressure today as oil futures rose to $66/barrel. BNI tried to rally this morning but failed near the $82 level. We remain bullish on BNI but we are cautious given the stock's decline back under the $82.00 level, which as broken resistance, should have acted as new support. Traders can choose to watch for a bounce from $80.00 or a new move over $82.50 as a bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $87.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over BNI's late April earnings report.
Picked on March 27 at $ 82.51
Bear Stearns - BSC - close: 137.55 change: -1.50 stop: 131.99
Financials were hit with profit taking after the Fed's interest rate announcement and the high-flying broker stocks were no exception. After a strong rebound from its recent lows and a test of resistance near $140 shares of BSC lost just over one percent today. We would look for the simple 10-dma (near 135.65) to act as support if the $137 level fails. Wait for a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $144-145.00 range.
Picked on March 24 at $137.65
Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - close: 89.95 chg: -3.05 stop: 89.45
Ouch! CLF lost 3.2% today. Our confidence is starting to waver. Friday's breakout over $92.50 and its 100-dma and 50-dma is starting to look like a bull trap. The metal and mining stocks, as a group, were weak today after the U.S. dollar rallied on the FOMC news this afternoon. This could just be profit taking in the metals recent rally. Most analyst comments we heard today remained very bullish on the metals/mining group. Unfortunately, we might be stopped out at $89.45 before CLF rebounds. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.
Picked on March 26 at $ 94.14
Deere Co - DE - close: 78.90 change: +0.38 stop: 74.95
DE continues to show relative strength and the stock almost broke out above resistance at the $79.50 level. We would not suggest new positions here. Watch for a dip and bounce from the $77.50 region or a new high over $80.00. Our target is the $84.00-85.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $112 target.
Picked on March 22 at $ 77.29
Grainger W.W.Inc. - GWW - close: 74.92 change: +0.12 stop: 73.95
We do not see any change from our weekend update on GWW. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $76.51. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $79.90-80.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal pointing to a $90 target.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 142.33 change: -4.37 stop: 140.79
LEH was hit hard by profit taking late this afternoon. It's almost as if the FOMC decision was a big flashing "sell now" signal for LEH investors. The intraday chart looks pretty nasty. The weakness did stall near LEH's rising 50-dma and shares are near recent support in the $142-141 area. We are not suggesting new bullish positions here. If there is any follow through tomorrow we would expect to be stopped out. However, watch for a bounce from the $140 mark as a potential new bullish entry point. If LEH breaks $140.00 then look for a decline toward the 100-dma near $135.
Picked on March 22 at $144.61
MedcoHealth - MHS - close: 59.36 change: +0.82 stop: 57.95
It looks like traders are buying the dip toward the bottom of MHS' recent trading range. We would not suggest new positions until MHS trades over $60.00 or better yet over Monday's high at $60.64.
Picked on March 24 at $ 60.05
Nabors Inds. - NBR - close: 69.83 chg: +1.53 stop: 64.99
NBR displayed plenty of relative strength today. The stock gapped higher to open at $68.85 and shares eventually drifted toward the $70.00 level. Our trigger to buy calls was at $68.75 so we have adjusted our entry point to this morning's open. The move looks pretty bullish given today's market weakness. However, traders have a choice. If you think NBR will pull back after testing the $70.00 level then wait for a dip back toward $68.00 and buy the dip. Otherwise we'd look for a move over $70.00 as the next entry point to go long. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. Please note that NBR is set to split 2-for-1 on April 18th. Our post-split target will be $37.00. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on March 28 at $ 68.85*gap higher*
Pantry Inc. - PTRY - close: 62.11 chg: -0.49 stop: 58.85
PTRY weathered the market weakness pretty well today. If the market continues south tomorrow then we'd watch for a dip toward $60.00 as the next bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $67.00-68.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on March 26 at $ 61.85
Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 195.05 chg: -4.40 stop: 189.90
RTP was a casualty of the FOMC policy announcement driving the U.S. dollar higher, which prompted profit taking in the metals and then the mining stocks. We suspect that this is just profit taking but the action in RTP looks like a bearish failed rally (reversal) under the $200 level. The stock did close under its 50-dma and is barely holding on to round-number support/resistance at the $195 mark. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at the moment and more conservative traders may want to tighten stops or exit early. One could always jump back in on a move over $200.
Picked on March 26 at $198.60
Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 51.90 change: -0.34 stop: 47.65*new*
Semiconductors were a sore spot today with the SOX index losing more than 2% and falling back under the 500 level. The weakness was ignited by an earnings warning from Lexar (LEXR) but the sell-off worsened after the FOMC meeting. Shares of SLAB pulled back toward round-number support at $50.00 with a 3.1% decline. We warned readers to expect a dip. Now watch for a bounce. A move over $51.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point. We are raising our stop loss to $47.65, just under the rising 50-dma.
Picked on March 23 at $ 51.05
Schlumberger - SLB - close: 124.58 chg: +1.63 stop: 118.99
SLB posted a gain today as crude oil futures rose past $66 a barrel. We are targeting a rally into the $129.75-130.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $144 target. Please note that SLB is due to split 2-for-1 on April 10th. Our post-split target will be the $64.87-65.00 range. We do not want to hold over the April 21st earnings report.
Picked on March 23 at $123.02
Toyota Motor Corp. - TM - close: 107.52 chg: -1.73 stop: 104.99
Hmm... we're a bit surprised by the weakness in TM. The stock was weak early on but sold off even more after the Fed's announcement. Yet in Japan the market's reversed early losses and closed higher. Volume continues to be very light, which doesn't suggest a lot of conviction either way. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $112.50-115.00 range. Traders with a longer-term horizon may want to aim higher.
Picked on March 12 at $106.68
Tenaris - TS - close: 178.09 chg: -5.16 stop: 177.79
Hmm... this doesn't look good for TS' upward momentum. The stock gapped lower this morning to open at $179 and the stock closed with a 2.8% loss. Volume on the move was pretty strong. Fortunately, we are still on the sidelines. If TS doesn't rebound soon we'll probably drop it as a bullish candidate. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $186.75. If triggered we will target a rally into the $198-200.00 range, which is consistent with the bullish P&F chart target.
Picked on March xx at $xxx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Valero Energy - VLO - close: 59.86 change: +0.44 stop: 54.49
VLO broke out over the $60.00 mark on an intraday basis. Unfortunately, the strength in the oil stocks began to fail late this afternoon when the broader market began to sell-off. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range.
Picked on March 15 at $ 57.55
Biosite Inc. - BSTE - close: 49.82 chg: -1.24 stop: 52.55
Our bearish play with BSTE has been opened. The stock's consolidation narrowed into a very tight range today before finally crumbling after the Fed announcement hit the wires. Shares broke under round-number support at the $50.00 level and hit our trigger to buy puts at $49.75. Now that the play is open we are targeting a move into the $45.25-45.00 range. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move under $49.00 before initiating positions since the $49 level has been support in the past. Technicals have naturally turned bearish.
Picked on March 28 at $ 49.75
Gannett Co Inc. - GCI - close: 58.90 chg: +0.05 stop: 61.76
GCI is still consolidating sideways after the breakdown below the $60 level. We suspect the trend will change soon when the stock hits the simple 10-dma shortly. Our bias is bearish given the breakdown and with overhead resistance at $60 but we're not going to suggest new positions until GCI trades under $59 again. Our target is the $55.25-55.00 range. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the April 12th earnings report.
Picked on March 19 at $ 59.04
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 47.08 chg: -0.50 stop: n/a
We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45. We are aiming for a rise to $5.95.
Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Ryland Group - RYL - close: 70.91 change: -0.58 stop: n/a
Good news. The homebuilders did not react well to the FOMC statement today. Shares of RYL have produced a failed rally under resistance near $72.50 and they've also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (a.k.a. bearish reversal). We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN).
Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Altria Group - MO - close: 72.03 chg: -0.02 stop: 71.99
Shares of MO should have rallied more strongly today. An independent arbitrator ruled in favor of tobacco companies regarding a payment dispute with the U.S. government. The industry is due to pay a $6.5 billion payment next month but now it looks like tobacco companies might be able to reduce that payment by $1.2 billion. Shares of MO, which owns Phillip Morris, tried to rally a couple of times today but could not breakout over its two-week trendline of resistance. Eventually the stock did trade under $72.00 and hit our stop loss at $71.99.
Picked on March 14 at $ 74.11
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