Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 08/28/2006

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Stocks; Tropical Storm Ernesto Turn North

The major indexes recouped more than half of last week's losses on summer-like volume as the National Hurricane Center's recent forecast for Tropical Storm Ernesto had the storm's path tracking north/northeast and steering clear of oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Energy futures fell sharply and overshadowed several merger announcements in the sector.

On Friday, October Natural Gas futures (ng06v) surged higher by $0.2046/btu, or +11.00% to settle at $7.34 as trader's contemplated last year's weekend arrival of Hurricane Katrina, which had the Nov05 contract jumping 19% the following Monday, but plunged more than $0.29/btu, or 14% today.

Exacerbating today's declines for natural gas prices is Tuesday's expiration of the September contract (ng06u) as traders rushed to sell rather than take delivery with winter still a couple of months away.

October Crude Oil futures (cl06v) were also weak and fell back near psychological and technical support of $70/bbl to settle down $1.90, or -2.62% at $70.61.


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BP (NYSE:BP) $68.30 -0.01% said it restored production in the western portion of its Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, field to more than 200,000 barrels of oil a day.

As if weather patterns aren't enough to keep oil trader's on their toes, some traders are concerned about the possibility that Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, may block oil exports if it suffers sanctions by the United Nations over its nuclear program. The U.N. set an August 31 deadline for Iran to halt its nuclear program, but Tehran said Tuesday that it wants to negotiate further.

The United States said Iran's response fell far short of U.N. Security Council demands it halt uranium enrichment, which can be used in the development of nuclear weapons.

Industry analysts remain uncertain as to the likelihood that Iran would cut off its oil exports, or that the West would take any actions that would force Tehran to retaliate in such a way.

Wachovia analyst Jason Schenker said, "We (the United States) don't want them to cut their oil exports, and they don't want to cut their exports," and added that oil could very well trade in the $60-$65 range in 2007, assuming economic growth continues to taper off.

Tropical Storm Ernesto - 5-day Cone / Projected Path

Friday's update from the National Hurricane Center had Ernesto headed northwesterly, but Sunday morning's forecast had the storm headed right for the southern top of Florida. When Sunday's electronic trade opened, energy futures gapped sharply lower.

I can only imagine that into Friday's close, a trader short natural gas was likely pressed to cover as he/she contemplated the possibility that natural gas prices could gap higher by 19% as witnessed on Monday, August 29, 2005, while a speculative bull felt deflated Sunday evening as Ernesto's path and natural gas futures deviated from plan.

U.S. Market Watch - 08/28/06 Close (04:20 PM EDT)

The Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 435.65 -0.71% traded weak, but not nearly as weak as the commodity and closed just under its 21-day SMA (436.00).

Merger-related news had Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) $104.27 +2.52% agreeing to be bought by a group of investors for $107.50 a share, a 27% premium to the closing price on May 26, the day before the investor group made its $100 a share proposal to take the company private.

Additional merger news in the energy sector had Woodside, an Australian petroleum firm, saying it will make a $1.2 billion, or $23 a share, bid for Energy Partners (NYSE:EPL) $24.14 +31.19% if that company's shareholders vote down a pending deal with Stone Energy (NYSE:SGY) $44.35 -6.80%.

Refiner Giant Industries (NYSE:GI) $82.22 +14.42% bucked today's weakness among many refiners after Western Refining (NYSE:WNR) $25.14 -3.27% offered to pay $83.00 a share in cash for its shares. Western said it would also assume $275 million of Giant's debt.

The CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) got a boost after Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) $380.95 +2.06% and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) $25.79 +1.93% said Google will exclusively display test ads on eBay's auction Web sites outside the U.S. and introduce "click-to-call" Web-site technology to quickly connect online consumers with advertisers.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $33.24 +1.43% closed at its highest level since 07/03/06 ($33.34) with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $19.38 +2.53% and NIVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) $27.39 +3.43% benefiting from an upgrade by Chris Caso at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Company.

Mr. Caso raised his rating on Intel to "outperform" from "market perform" saying channel checks in Asia suggest microprocessor demand is stabilizing and inventories are showing signs of improvement.

Mr. Caso cited the upcoming release of the Vista operating system from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $25.95 +0.38% for his upgrade on NVIDIA to "outperform" from "underperform," and that the company should see more demand from personal-computer makers.

There were no major economic reports slated for Monday, but regional Fed data had the Chicago Fed Index up 0.6% in July and rising for a second-straight month despite a drop in auto production. Regional output was up 6.1% from a year earlier.

The Dallas Fed said its production index rebounded to 33.4 in August, up from a 9.4 reading in July, but largely unchanged versus over the past 6-months.

Tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM EDT we'll get a look at August consumer confidence (consensus 102.5 vs prior 106.5). Then at 02:00 PM EDT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its August 8th meeting.

Good Setup for Tech Year-End Rally

On Friday, as I reviewed some of the market internals, various major market technicals and turned the page in my StockTrader's Almanac to this week's calendar, "the stars aligned" for what look(ed) to be a setup for some further weakness early this week, that would lead to some very good pullback entries, where option traders could find some lower volatilities to gather up some index call options for a very profitable year-end push.

One set of internals I noted in last week's Market Monitor at OptionInvestor.com was that for the first time since earlier this Spring, the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio (see table at top of tonight's Market Wrap) had given a "buy signal" with a 38% reading on Friday, suggesting to me that on an intermediate-term basis, leadership was shifting more bullish.

Not that the number of new 52-week highs are growing at a rapid rate, but enough to begin outpacing the number of new 52-week lows.

In mid-July, 07/07/06 similar 10-day NH/NL readings were present for the NYSE, which was a "heads up to buy weakness" for the very broad NYSE Composite ($NYA.X).

Let's take another quick look at the very broad NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) with our high/low close retracement. This is what I would use as a "guide" and "confidence builder" for bulls to buy a potential decline in the NDX/QQQQ.

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) - Daily Intervals

When I "turned the page" to this week's calendar for The StockTrader's Almanac, Monday's entry is "End of August murderous 6 of last 9 years, average loss last 5 days: Dow -2.9%, S&P -2.7%, NASDAQ -2.4%."

Now, I've set my QCharts cursor box to 07/07/06 on the above NYSE Comp. bar chart, where it was that day that the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio gave its first "buy signal," and over the course of the next 7 sessions fell roughly 300 points, or -3.6%.

While there is NO GUARANTEE that history would ever repeat itself (StockTrader's Almanac, or NASDAQ Comp showing similar trade as NYSE Composite did when its 10-day NH/NL ratio gave its first "buy signal") there's enough similarity presenting itself to be on the alert.

The "dotted blue" horizontal line at 8,388 is the 5/16/06 close for the NYSE Composite, the same day its 10-day NH/NL ratio first gave a "sell signal."

NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPX) - Daily Intervals

It would be a "tough trade" to say traders, or investors should be taking FULL positions in 4 and 5-lettered stocks at this point, but I think the "ideal" trade would be to look for some type of 3% pullback in the NASDAQ Comp (and/or NDX/QQQQ) for a bullish entry and have some CONFIDENCE for a nice sharp recovering back higher, when using a past observation from the NYSE Composite trade.

Partial bullish positions can't be criticized either at this point, with the thought that a pullback might come.

The recent spats of weakness sure haven't had much long liquidators (that is ... longs willing to relinquish their grip on recent gains).

Now let's look at the much narrower NASDAQ-100 Tracker (AMEX:QQQQ) $38.61 +0.75% and some technicals that a trader looking for a PULLBACK might relish.

NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) - Daily Intervals

As internals look to improve for the NASDAQ, and history hints a pullback to the end of the month might present itself, I can remember the Market Wraps from mid-August and the notable gains for the QQQQ above $37.25 on August 15. A reverse head/shoulder pattern would have a VERY NICE "right shoulder" pullback at $37.25.

Conclusions: The weather can change on dime, but the internal repair and actual PRICE action for the NASDAQ suggests it should be time to focus on buying pullbacks. If history is any indications, there are some very good setups for bulls to have some confidence to be buying pullbacks and looking for some very nice gains into year's end.

New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
CTSH None None

New Calls

Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 71.20 chg: +2.12 stop: 68.45

Company Description:
Cognizant is a leading provider of IT services. Focused on delivering strategic information technology solutions that address the complex business needs of its clients, Cognizant uses its own on-site/offshore outsourcing model to provide applications management, development, integration, and reengineering; infrastructure management; business process outsourcing; and numerous related services, such as enterprise consulting, technology architecture, program management, and change management. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Software stocks were showing strength today and shares of CTSH really out performed the markets and its peers with a 3% rebound from the bottom of its recent trading range and its six-week trendline of support. Most of the stock's technical indicators have turned bullish and the Point & Figure chart points to a $92 target. Aggressive traders might want to buy calls here. We want to see a little more confirmation so we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $71.55. Conservative traders may want to wait for a new high over the $72.00 level. We're placing our stop loss under today's low. Our target is the $76.50-77.50 range.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the October calls.

BUY CALL OCT 70.00 UPU-JN open interest=4190 current ask $4.40
BUY CALL OCT 75.00 UPU-JO open interest= 973 current ask $2.00

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

New Puts

None today.

New Strangles

None today.

Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

The Andersons - ANDE - close: 39.74 chg: +0.26 stop: 37.49

Our new play in ANDE has been opened but we're suggesting that traders stay cautious. The stock spiked resistance at the $40.00 level very briefly around noon today and traded to an intraday high of $40.26, which seems a little suspicious since our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $40.25. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new plays with ANDE under $40.00. Readers can choose to see a new relative high (40.27) or look for a dip and bounce near $38.50 as a potential entry point. Now that the play is open our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 28 at $ 40.26
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 900 thousand


AstraZeneca - AZN - close: 63.32 change: +0.10 stop: 59.95

Drug stocks were trending higher today. The DRG drug index hit new multi-year highs thanks to strength in shares of PFE and MRK. Unfortunately, AZN is still consolidating sideways. We don't see any changes from our weekend update on the stock. We would still consider new positions here but a dip and bounce near $62 would also be an attractive entry point. Our target is the $68.00-69.00 range but our time frame is mid-October.

Picked on August 20 at $ 62.99
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million


Cameco - CCJ - close: 39.27 change: +0.08 stop: 37.95

CCJ under performed the broader market on Monday. However, shares bounced multiple times near the $38.80 level so CCJ may have put in a short-term bottom. We don't know yet and would not consider new positions until CCJ traded back above $40.00 or $40.50. The Point & Figure chart is still bullish with a $55 target. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward the $38.80 level. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 40.33
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million


Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 39.28 chg: +0.00 stop: 39.95

There was literally no change in shares of CYMI today and we don't see any changes from our weekend update. We currently have two triggers on the stock to catch a breakout either way. If shares move higher we have a trigger to buy calls at $42.55. If shares move lower we have a trigger to buy puts at $37.74.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 56.59 chg: -0.81 stop: 53.95

Metal-related stocks were trading lower today. Chatter on the floor of the NYSE suggested that investors were selling energy and metal stocks to fund their tech purchases. FCX didn't move much. The stock lost 1.4% in a move toward the bottom of its current $56-58 trading range. We see the dip toward $56 and support near its 200-dma as a new entry point but right now traders might feel more comfortable waiting for a breakout over $58.00. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range. Traders should also note that we do expect some short-term resistance near $60.00 and a retest of the 100-dma, once broken as resistance, should act as support. FYI: As the August 31st U.N. deadline for Iran approaches we would expect gold futures to rise and that could benefit shares of FCX.

Picked on August 23 at $ 57.51
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million


MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 91.40 chg: +1.35 stop: 87.40

Software stocks turned in a bullish day posting a 1% gain in the GSO software index. Shares of MSTR followed with a 1.49% bounce from the $90 region but the stock is still under its 200-dma. We see today's rebound as a new entry point to buy calls but more conservative traders might want to wait for a move over $92.00 before initiating new positions. This remains a somewhat aggressive play given MSTR's volatility. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss. Currently our target is the $98.75-99.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $ 92.05
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 431 thousand


Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 55.19 change: +1.59 stop: 51.65

PJC displayed relative strength on Monday with a 2.9% gain. The stock broke back above potential resistance at its 50-dma and the $54.00 level but the rally ran out of steam near $56, which was resistance and the top of its previous trading range. The move looks like a new entry point but we would expect a dip back toward $54 tomorrow. Conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $56 before buying calls. Our target is the $59.90-60.00 range.

Picked on August 20 at $ 55.70
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand


FreightCar Amer. - RAIL - cls: 56.02 chg: +0.11 stop: 54.95*new*

A significant dip in crude oil futures on Monday helped fuel a rally in the transports but the railroad stocks did not respond. The Dow Jones Transportation average added 1.2%, thanks to a big rebound in airlines, but railroads traded flat to down. Shares of RAIL only added 0.2% and failed under its 200-dma and its short-term trendline of lower highs. The daily chart's MACD indicator finally produced a new sell signal. We are suggesting that conservative traders think about an early exit to limit losses. We're going to raise ours top loss to $54.95.

Picked on August 20 at $ 59.13
Change since picked: - 3.12
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 475 thousand


Ryland Group - RYL - close: 44.12 change: +0.28 stop: 39.95

Housing stocks were trading higher today. The DJUSHB home construction index added 1.8%. Unfortunately, RYL under performed its peers and the rally in RYL stalled out at $44.50. We're still waiting for a breakout over $45.00. Our trigger to buy calls is at $45.15. Our short-term target is the $49.50-50.00 range, which is a slight adjustment from our original target. Watch out for potential resistance at the descending 100-dma near $50.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million


United Ind. - UIC - close: 52.74 change: +0.97 stop: 47.49

UIC displayed another round of relative strength with Monday's 1.8% bullish breakout over short-term resistance at $52.00. More patient traders may still want to look for a dip in the $51.50-51.00 region. We will continue to target the $54.75-55.00 range but we're also adding a secondary target at $57.50. We would suggest selling half or more of your position at the first target and the rest at $57.50. The P&F chart points to a $64 target.

Picked on August 27 at $ 51.77
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 198 thousand


VF Corp. - VFC - close: 68.53 change: +0.76 stop: 68.45

VFC is bouncing from technical support at its 50-dma and aggressive traders may want to enter positions now. We are still waiting on a breakout over resistance near $70.00. Right now we're using a trigger to buy calls at $70.25. If triggered we're targeting a short-term rally into the $74.00-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points toward a $99 target.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 567 thousand


Valero - VLO - close: 60.39 change: -2.01 stop: 59.99

News that the weather service had downgraded hurricane Ernesto to a tropical storm and that the storm would veer north and miss the oil-producing Gulf region sent crude oil futures slipping lower toward $70 a barrel. The big drop in crude oil was felt the hardest by oil service stocks. The OSX index lost 2.8%. Shares of VLO fell 3.2% and back toward round-number support near $60.00. Conservative traders might want to try and exit early. The stock closed at its lows for the day and that's bad news for tomorrow. Odds are VLO will hit $60 tomorrow morning. The question is will the stock bounce before hitting our stop loss at $59.99. More aggressive traders might want to widen their stop to $59.90 or $59.75 just to give VLO some maneuvering room but we are not suggesting it.

Picked on August 20 at $ 61.84
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 88.15 change: +0.94 stop: 89.05

We do not see any changes from our new play description from the weekend. Right now we are waiting for a breakdown under support near $86.00. Our trigger to buy puts is at $85.85. More aggressive traders might want to consider a failed rally under $89 (or Monday's high near 88.50) as a new entry point. Our target is the $81.00-80.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 663 thousand


Boeing - BA - close: 74.72 change: +0.79 stop: 78.05

A positive market bias on Monday and news that BA announced a $3 billion stock buy back program helped BA produce an oversold bounce. The rally did stall near broken support and what should be resistance near $75.00 but we'd be careful about starting new plays right here. Over the weekend we thought a failed rally under $75 could be used as a new entry point but now we suspect that BA could bounce to $76.00 or $76.50 before rolling over again. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 75.75
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million


Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 65.67 chg: -0.39 stop: 70.25

The news about hurricane/tropical storm Ernesto sent crude oil lower and that fueled a rally in airlines and transports. Yet the railroad stocks did not participate. BNI produced another lower high and failed rally at the top edge of its bearish, descending channel. Our target remains the $62.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 08 at $ 68.06
Change since picked: - 2.39
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million


Chipotle Mex Grill - CMG - close: 48.90 chg: -0.00 stop: 52.55

CMG closed unchanged on Monday and the good news is that the stock failed to participate in the market's rally. We don't see any changes from our weekend update. We're not suggesting new plays because CMG still looks short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We are targeting a decline into the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $ 50.28
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand


Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 50.93 change: +0.69 stop: 52.05

Watch out! This could be a bear trap! Over the weekend we added CYT to the play list with a trigger to buy puts at $49.75. Monday morning saw CYT breakdown under support at $50.00 and trade to $49.65 followed by an immediate bounce higher. The move almost looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally interpreted as a bullish reversal. We are not suggesting new plays with CYT above $50.00 and more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops if you did open plays this morning to limit losses.

Picked on August 28 at $ 49.75
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 241 thousand


Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - cls: 93.21 chg: +1.11 stop: 97.75

ISRG is still trying to bounce from the $90 region but so far shares are trading under a short-term pattern of lower highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $60 target. We are only aiming for a decline into the $87.75-87.50 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 94.90
Change since picked: - 1.86
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million


Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 71.44 chg: +0.52 stop: 75.51

The first thing we noticed about JCI today was how low the volume was. We warned readers over the weekend to expect a bounce and JCI delivered one. The good news here is that the rebound stalled out twice near the $72 level. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $68.50-67.50 range. The P&F chart, with its triple-bottom breakdown sell signal, points to a $61 target.

Picked on August 22 at $ 72.96
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million


Radian Group - RDN - close: 60.10 chg: +0.47 stop: 61.51

There is no change from our weekend new play description on RDN. As we expected the stock did produce a bounce form its 200-dma. The good news, however, is that the bounce failed pretty quickly. We are still suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $58.99. If triggered our target is the $55.15-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 722 thousand


Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 66.68 chg: -2.28 stop: 70.25

RIG is another casualty of the Ernesto storm, crude oil pullback, oil stock sell-off today. Traders might want to use this as a new bearish entry point or wait for another decline under $66.00. The stock has already hit our conservative target at $65.25. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $61 level. Currently the P&F chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million

Strangle Updates


Dropped Calls

Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 149.53 chg: -0.54 stop: 149.40

We have been stopped out of GS at $148.25. Our stop loss was actually at $149.40 but shares of GS gapped open lower after Barron's published some negative comments on the brokers this past weekend.

Picked on August 16 at $154.99
Change since picked: - 5.46
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million

Dropped Puts


Dropped Strangles



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