Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/09/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

An Apple For Investors

With no economic reports of note today it was up to Apple to make the headlines. They did it with a bang with the announcement of the iPhone by Steve Jobs at the MacWorld exposition. The announcement had been rumored for many months if not years and it still had an instant impact on Apple's stock price. AAPL soared +$7.10 (+8.3%) on the midday announcement to a new closing high at $92.57.

The iPhone with 4gb of memory will retail for $499 and the 8gb model will sell for $599. This is seen as somewhat expensive but Steve Jobs is not concerned and is targeting sales of 14 million units, 10 million in 2007, and the phone will not even be available until June. The phone combines the features of an iPod, cellphone and 2 megapixel camera. There are no keyboards with those functions being replaced by a massive 3.5 inch touch screen. The operating system is Mac OS X and Cingular will be the mobile network of choice. The ultra thin iPhone has 16 hours of battery life for audio or 5 hours of talk time. It is also Wi-Fi and Bluetooth capable. Because it will also function as a mini Internet device there is email, Internet browsing, etc.

Apple said it has sold 40 million iPods and over two billion songs. While that is extremely significant the future is going to be video according to Jobs. Over the last four months since they started offering video over the iPod they have sold 50 million TV shows and 1.3 million feature films. I cannot conceive watching a feature film on an iPod but with the new Apple TV device those video numbers should rocket higher offering an entirely new burst of continuing post sale profits. Expect those videos to hit the billion mark over the next couple years.

Unfortunately the term iPhone does not belong to Apple but to Cisco. Cisco released an Internet Voip phone three weeks ago under the name iPhone. The name was acquired in 2000 when Cisco bought Infogear Technology Corp. According to Apple they have been in heated negotiations to acquire the name and you can bet Cisco will get more than a pound of flesh out of Apple for the rights. That was a good strategy move by Cisco to announce a phone under the iPhone name only three weeks before Apple's expected announcement. Apple also announced their expected iTV device but that name has been changed to Apple TV. The TV device will allow content to be downloaded by computer, iPod or iPhone and transmitted wirelessly to the Apple TV device for viewing on the customers TV. Apple Computer also announced it was changing its name to Apple Inc to better reflect their expanding business segments.

The other major smart phone makers all fell sharply once the features of the iPhone were released. RIMM fell -7.9%, Palm -5.9%, Motorola -1.8% and Nokia -1.3%.


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The Apple announcement is a game changer for the cell phone market according to Steve Jobs and it was a direction changer for the broader markets. Earnings warnings, falling oil prices and index implosions from numerous emerging markets all contributed to a sharp downdraft this morning. The Dow had slipped to a -54 loss early in the day and Nasdaq -15 before Apple triggered a Nasdaq rebound leading the major indexes back to either positive or only fractionally negative for the day.

Leading the morning drop was a profit warning from Sprint (S) that knocked -2.19 off its stock price. Sprint said income would fall from $12.6-$12.9 billion in 2006 to $11-$11.5 billion in 2007. The company said profits would fall as it spent more money on marketing, handset subsidies and network improvements. Spring also said it would lay off 5,000 employees in 2007. There was a barrage of analyst downgrades following the warning.

Celgene (CELG) fell -2.45 (-4.3%) on triple their average volume to $54.85 after they warned that 2007 revenues would be below prior forecasts. They said earnings per share would only amount to $1 per share compared to analyst's estimates of $1.09. Natus Medical (BABY) also forecast earnings and revenue below analyst estimates.

AES Corp, a global power company listed on the NYSE, saw a sharp drop to $20 after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced he will nationalize the nations power and telecommunications industries. AES owns 86% of Eletricidad de Caracas, the largest privately owned electric utility in Venezuela.

Venezuelan Telecom giant CANTV (NYSE:VNT) fell -27% after Chavez said he would nationalize the company. Verizon is the biggest shareholder in VNT but that does not appear to be reflected in their stock price as yet. Verizon had sold its Latin American interests to Carlos Slim, the worlds 3rd richest man, for $3.7 billion including its 28.5% stake in CANTV. The contract had an "out" clause in the case of a nationalism before the deal closed and it appears Verizon could be significantly at risk.

VNT Chart - Daily

The Venezuelan stock market fell -19% after the nationalism announcement was made as investors ran for the exits in fear their companies would be the next Chavez target. The VZ currency also took a sharp drop with the Bolivar, officially pegged at 2,150 Bolivars to the dollar, was trading at 4,100 to the dollar. Chavez may have finally gone too far in his nationalism efforts with outside investment in almost any sector now nearly impossible. The country will eventually stagnate and begin to shrink as systems in place begin to fail for lack of maintenance and lack of upgrades. The plunge in the Caracas market took other Latin American markets down with it as investors fled anything related to Venezuela.

The global sell off in emerging markets and commodities is continuing and analysts are still confused as to why. Since economies don't implode conveniently when new tax years begin I still believe the answer is obvious. This is simply profit taking on some very healthy 2006 gains. Since most emerging markets are commodity related this profit taking is carried over into commodities. Copper is the one commodity where an excess of supply is actually impacting the price. That would also apply to oil with the price dropping to an 18 month low of $53.88 overnight. There were multiple reasons given including the approaching futures expiration, contract rotation in a major commodities index basket and additional reporting that 2006 was the warmest year since record keeping began 112 years ago. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said December qualified as the 3rd warmest on record. No states were colder than their averages and five states had their warmest December on record. For all of 2006 the average temperature was +2.2 degrees above the averages recorded from 1901 through 2000. NOAA began keeping records in 1895. This record warmth has driven the use of heating oil and natural gas to multiyear lows allowing supplies to rise to multiyear highs. This would not be a problem if OPEC had really cut production back in November as promised. In reality people paid to track OPEC shipments said November and December shipments were only -100,000 bpd below pre November levels. This is only a fraction of the stated -1.2 mbpd cut. Another company, tanker tracker Petrologistics, now says production actually increased in December by +200,000 bpd. Had they actually cut as promised there would be nearly 83 million bbls less oil in inventory today and this price drop would never have occurred.

OPEC members have begun complaining internally about the lack of follow through by most member nations to the planned cuts. The president of OPEC called each member nation already this week outlining the urgent need to follow through with the planned cuts. They have to keep prices high to fund the many projects they have to increase output over the next several years. Kuwait is planning to spend $2 billion a year to rehabilitate facilities and boost output to 4 mbpd by 2020. This is only a drop in the bucket to the $100 billion currently being spent by other OPEC countries for the same reasons. They cannot continue to fund the improvements if oil prices continue to slide. For this reason I believe the production cuts will eventually be made. They are scheduled to cut another 500,000 bpd on Feb 1st if oil prices are still under $60.

Crude Oil Chart - Weekly

Crude oil has strong support at $55 dating back to March-2005 and that would be followed by even stronger support at $50. The IEA, which typically errs on the optimistic side, said prices would return to an average of $65 for all of 2007 as eventual OPEC production cuts were carried out. I would have expected the IEA to be predicting $40 rather than $65 so this is a surprising prediction but one I agree with. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for 2007 by -3.50 but they are still higher at $69 per bbl. 34 analysts polled by Reuters averaged $63.48 as an average oil price prediction for all of 2007. Accuweather also changed their prediction to one for colder weather across the US over the next month as a mass of artic air begins to descend and cover most of the country with very low temperatures. That cold front will probably be too late to help with oil prices and OPEC's fate is entirely in their own hands.

The long-term outlook remains unchanged. ConocoPhillips warned last week that flat production and shrinking margins would hurt Q4 earnings. They are also taking a $90 million after tax impairment charge for declining well performance. That dang depletion virus is still spreading. Today BP reported that declining production, weather delays and unexpected events would impact Q4 performance. Production in Q4 fell to 3.82 mbpd compared to 4.022 mbpd in Q4-2005. The majors continue to be self-liquidating companies because they cannot find and produce as much oil as they did in the past. This will eventually make the OPEC puppet show less important but these warnings are lost on the general public. Most consumers expect oil to continue to flow forever as long as oil companies continue throwing more money at the discovery process. Unfortunately the major oils are electing to buy back shares rather than spend additional sums on exploration. There are simply very few places left to drill and most of them are in hostile hands or not commercially viable. Nothing in the long-term outlook has changed despite the temporary dip to $55.

After the bell today Alcoa was the first Dow component to release earnings for Q4. Their 74-cent EPS easily beat estimates for 65 cents and represented a +60% jump over Q4-2005. CEO Alain Belda said their current growth strategy could boost returns by +15 to +20 cents in 2007. AA jumped +6% to just under $30 in after hours trading.

First Call said today that there have been 86 warnings from S&P-500 companies and only 35 positive pre-announcements. This is slightly more negative than usual. Profits for Q4 are now estimated to be +9.4% for the S&P and it would be the first quarter in 4.5 years for earnings in single digits rather than the strong double digits we are used to having. The drop to single digits comes after a monster wave of buybacks, which shrank outstanding shares and should have produced a monster benefit to earnings. If we fail to hit double digits after the massive posturing it could be even more negative. Energy stocks which make up 9.8% of the S&P generate 15% of its earnings and that sector is expected to show an earnings drop of -2.7% mainly because Q4-2005 was so strong. Materials are expected to be up +37% and telecommunications +64% but both of those contribute little to the overall S&P. Financial companies comprise 22.3% of the S&P and contribute 27% of the profits are expected to post results up +24% over 2005.

Dow Chart - 180 min

The Alcoa news may have been good for AA but it appears to have not helped the markets with futures down sharply in after hours. The Dow continues to exhibit increased volatility with the pattern of lower highs continuing. Initial support at 12350 is holding but there appears to be a problem building. We are five trading days into 2007 and year-end retirement contributions do not appear to be having any impact on the indexes. The Dow was the recipient of boatloads of blue chip cash late in 2006 and it is possible that cash is now leaving. The reason we have not seen any big declines is the offset of the new retirement cash being put to work.

However, the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq Composite are the only indexes with anything resembling a positive trend. The Dow, Russell-2000, OEX, SPX, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire-5000 are all trading very near their 2007 lows. The Nasdaq-100 or NDX actually hit a new three-week high today just over 1800. This is remarkable given the chip weakness over the last month. Evidently money coming out of emerging market ETFs, oil and blue chips is being put to work in the large techs.

Nasdaq-100 Chart - 30 min

Nasdaq-100 Chart - Daily

Of course we all know it takes more than one index to make a market. Eventually the year-end cash will run out and those who have been moving to the sidelines will have to make a decision about future direction. There are no economic reports this week that will give us a clue as to the economy or the Fed. The Fed funds futures are not showing any changes in the current status through July so that presents traders with a directional challenge.

S&P-500 Chart - Daily

Since I have no crystal ball I will have to let the market continue to direct my trades. My bias has been bearish since the failure of the S&P at 1429 last week and nothing has changed. We have seen resistance slowly decline to 1420 and now 1415 with initial support holding at 1405. Eventually something has got to give. It would be easy to suggest going long over 1415 but until the rest of the indexes confirm I think it would just be a head fake and lead to another failure below 1430. Personally that would be a good trade, long over 1415 and short a failure under 1430, but only for those nimble enough to pull it off. I prefer to maintain my current bearish status and continue to remain short and target 1385 for a dip buy. Frankly we could go either way or both ways several times given the current market indecision and increasing volatility. Trying to trade this chop will cost you money unless you are psychic. Let's wait for a direction to appear and then follow it.

New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
None None None

New Calls

None today.

New Puts

None today.

New Strangles

None today.

Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 93.60 change: -0.09 stop: 89.75

In the news today LMT announced that it had won a multi-year $655 million deal to work on the Trident missile system for the U.S. Navy. It could have been the news or the general upswing in defense stocks that helped lift LMT to a new intraday high of $94.67 this morning. Unfortunately, LMT failed to maintain those gains. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Currently we have two targets. Our conservative target is the $94.85-95.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $99.00-100.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $ 90.62
Change since picked: + 2.98
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million


Altria Group - MO - close: 88.12 change: +0.14 stop: 84.75

It looks like last night's news that Kraft was taking a big charge for the quarter failed to have any impact on shares of MO. Instead there was another round of positive comments about how MO's stock would benefit when (if) the company spins off the Kraft unit sometime this year. Shares of MO managed to hit a new high of $88.58 but closed off its best levels of the session. It might pay off to wait a day or two and see if MO will dip back toward the 10-dma before initiating new bullish positions. Broken resistance in the $85.00-85.60 region should offer support. We are targeting a rally into the $92.50-95.00 range. Expect some round-number resistance near $90.00. The P&F chart currently points to a $114 target. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on January 04 at $ 87.65
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million


Reynolds American - RAI - cls: 64.07 chg: -0.58 stop: 64.90

RAI is still under performing its rival MO. The stock has recently broken down under its 50-dma and is flirting with a break under its 100-dma. It's our plan to buy calls on a breakout over resistance in the $66.00-66.50 range. Our suggested trigger to open call plays is at $66.55. If triggered our target is the $69.90-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: If RAI doesn't rebound soon we'll drop it as a bullish candidate.

Picked on January xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


Sepracor - SEPR - close: 61.87 change: +0.30 stop: 59.65

SEPR did produce a 0.4% bounce today but traders should remain cautious with the lack of strength. We were expecting more follow through on last week's late rebound but the stock is struggling with the $62 level. More traders may want to try our suggestion for conservative investors to wait for a move over $62.50 or $63.00 before initiating call positions. We are going to target the January 2005 highs with an exit target of $66.45. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points to a $68 target.

Picked on January 07 at $ 61.89
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

Put Updates

Cummins Inc. - CMI - close: 117.26 change: +1.26 stop: 118.15

CMI produced a 1% bounce from technical support near its 200-dma and its two-year trendline of support. We're waiting for a breakdown under that trendline with our suggested trigger to buy puts at $114.50. If triggered we have two targets. Our conservative target is $110.50 and our aggressive target is the $106.00 level. Currently the Point & Figure chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $96 target but is also testing support in the $114-115 region. We do not want to hold over the late January or early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/29/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 29.75 change: +0.05 stop: 32.01

Shares of EBAY failed to truly bounce with the rest of the Internet sector. The stock tried and failed to rally past the $30.00 level and its 100-dma. This looks like another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $26.00 level. We would aim lower but the company has earnings coming up in about two and a half weeks and we do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on January 08 at $ 29.70
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14.5 million


3M Co. - MMM - close: 77.68 change: +0.09 stop: 80.01

MMM is still trading in limbo. The stock has been consolidating sideways with a bearish pattern of lower highs. The next move should be lower but MMM refuses to fall. We're beginning to think that it may be time to exit early and just move on to another play. More conservative traders might want to bail out now. We would hesitate on opening new positions. Our target is the $72.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $47 target.

Picked on December 17 at $ 78.31
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million


Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 166.23 chg: +0.90 stop: 171.55

The retail sector was beginning to rebound today as investors took the plunging oil prices to mean the consumer will be free to spend more. SHLD rose 0.5% but failed to breakout over its 10-dma. The stock is trading between its 10-dma and 100-dma. The trend is down but a strongly positive day for the markets could easily push SHLD towards the $170 level. Be patient if you're looking for a new entry point and consider a failed rally in the $168-170 region as a potential entry. The Point & Figure chart points to a $152 target. Our target is the $162.00-160.00 range.

Picked on December 22 at $167.90
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million


Vornado Realty Trust - VNO - cls: 119.90 chg: +1.76 stop: 122.65

VNO produced a 1.4% oversold bounce today but failed to close over potential resistance at the $120 level and its 50-dma. A decline from here (under $119.50 or $119.00) could be used as a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward $122.00 or $121.50. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $115.50, which is above potential support at its rising 100-dma. Our aggressive target is the $111.00 level, which is above potential support at $110.

Picked on January 07 at $119.55
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 02/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 945 thousand


YUM Brands - YUM - close: 58.27 change: +0.22 stop: 60.26

The tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears in YUM continues. The stock failed to see any further follow through lower but neither did it see much of a rebound. The technical indicators are mixed with both bullish and bearish signals following its three-week trading range. Readers may want to wait for a new relative low before initiating new positions. Our target is the $55.75-55.00 range but keep an eye on the rising 100-dma as potential support. FYI: A decline under $57.00 would reverse the P&F chart into a new sell signal.

Picked on December 12 at $ 58.49
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Blue Nile - NILE - cls: 37.98 chg: -1.30 stop: n/a

After days of gains NILE finally hit some profit taking. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. We're not suggesting new positions. We are adjusting our target to breakeven at $2.40. The options in our suggested strangle are the January $45 call (JWU-AI) and the January $35 put (JWU-MG).

Picked on October 29 at $ 38.92
Change since picked: - 0.94
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 226 thousand

Dropped Calls


Dropped Puts

Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 52.52 change: +2.79 stop: 52.01

We have been stopped out of GPI at $52.01. This morning before the opening bell the stock was upgraded to an "out perform" and the market overreacted (or maybe it was just the shorts) and shares rallied to an intraday high of $53.62 above its 200-dma. This was essentially a case of bad luck with yesterday's gap down opening the play and today's upgrade-induced spike higher whipsawing us out of the play.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.82 *gap down entry*
Change since picked: + 3.70
Earnings Date 02/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 371 thousand


NewMarket - NEU - close: 56.51 change: +0.89 stop: 60.35

Target achieved. NEU dipped to $54.96 before bouncing from technical support at its rising 200-dma. Our target was the $55.00-54.75 range.

Picked on December 14 at $ 59.11
Change since picked: - 2.60
Earnings Date 01/29/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

Dropped Strangles


Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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