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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 03/12/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

March Madness

Top seedings for this year's NCAA Men's Division I basketball tournament may have had many market-watchers focusing more attention on filling out their brackets than trading stocks, but the major indexes managed to post gains in a light volume.

With the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,406.60 +0.26% having retraced roughly 43% of its February 27 to March 5 decline of 75 points, it's "game on" with sellers still looking as if they have a slight over buyers on an intermediate-term basis.

Buyers sent 102 stocks to new 52-week highs at the big board, the most since February 20th, when new highs outnumbered new lows by a hefty 374 to 7 margin. Meanwhile, sellers managed to push just 20 issues to new 52-week lows, which is well shy of the 88 found on March 5th.

Two figures that I would be measuring against here are the 374 new highs from 02/20/07 and the 88 new lows from 03/05/07.

NASDAQ's new high/new lows measures are still trying to stabilize, but today's close does have the 5-day NH/NL ratio reversing back up above the needed 32.00% measure, which confirms the recent bounce, if not signaling some resumption of bullish leadership forming near-term. This action follows the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL ratio reversal back higher from Wednesday at 64.00%.

To figures that I would be measuring against for the NASDAQ NH/NL here are the 234 new highs found on 02/20/07 and the 183 new lows found on 03/05/07. For instance, if we were to see 300 new highs tomorrow in the NASDAQ, then watch out to the upside as prices would likely ramp in impressive fashion. Conversely, if we were to see 250 new lows, then the recent price lows for the NASDAQ Composite (2,340) would likely become very vulnerable.

There are many similarities between new high and new low measures as there is to filling out a tournament bracket for this year's office pool.

Who are you picking in the first round of the Midwest bracket? Last year's national champion and number 1 seeded Florida? Or their opponent Jackson State, which is seeded #16 in the Midwest regional?

New highs and new lows, as well as their fluctuations aren't all that different.

There's nothing wrong with betting on an underdog, and Jackson State should be commended for making it to the big show after winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference.

However, the likelihood that this year's four #16 seeds ending up in the Final Four would be a far-fetched prognostication. Instead, a "safer bet" would most likely be to have either the #1, or #2 seeded teams advancing to the final rounds.

I'd have to think that if all four of the #16 seeded teams upset their #1 seeded opponents in the first round, there's going to be some very shocked, and grumpy bracket fillers in the office come Friday.

In summary, if the WEAKER #15 and #16 seeds (new 52-week lows) start gaining over the STRONGER #1 and #2 seeds (new 52-week highs) there will likely be as many disappointed bracket-fillers for this year's NCAA pool as their will be broader-market equity bulls.

I began filling out my "bracket" last week, but it wasn't an NCAA basketball tournament bracket, it was an investment bracket where Friday's quarterly expiration gets "top seed," near-term, with the dollar/yen #2, the euro/yen #3 and the homebuilders rounding out what I feel will be the top four seeds that traders and investors will be monitoring closely in coming sessions.

Closing U.S. Market Watch

Some of today's top news stories had shares of subprime mortgage lender New Century Financial (NYSE:NEW) $3.11 halted with news pending the entire session. Late this afternoon a company filing with the SEC said it received letters from Wall Street lenders, including Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) $51.09 +0.27%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) $202.60 +0.44%, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) $76.06 +0.07% and Citigroup (NYSE:C) $50.36 +0.05% that they were cutting off funding to the lender, and that is no guarantee the company (New Century Financial) will receive additional financing.

New Century is the nations second-largest subprime lender, specializing in lending money to prospective home buyers (new and existing) who have poor credit histories.

Homebuilders as depicted by the Dow Jones Home Construction Index ($DJUSHB) 630.91 -4.07% gave back all of last week's gains and then some, as investors continue to contemplate a near-term liquidity crunch in the subprime mortgage arena should lenders tighten credit standards.

News travels fast and Thursday's action in New Century Financial, which was noted in the OptionInvestor.com Market Monitor as the stock fell below $5.00 was probably already "known." Last Monday's gap down from $14.65 was likely the bigger hint that another shoe was about to drop for the stock.

Fremont General (NYSE:FMT) $6.73 -16.18% and Novastar Financial (NYSE:NFI) $4.24 -19.08% were notably weak as well. Shares of Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) $35.14 -2.65% came close to testing last week's low of $34.50 to finish down 96 cents.

M & A activity grabbed headlines too.

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The Morgan Stanley Healthcare Payors Index ($HMO.X) 1,887.31 +2.61% was today's sector winner. Shares of Sierra Health Systems (NYSE:SIE) $41.57 +15.79% jumped after the company said it had agreed to be purchased by UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) $53.27 +0.50% for $43.50/share in a deal valued at $2.6 billion. Some industry followers say the merger could face anti-trust scrutiny.

Today's "blockbuster" deal had discount retailer Dollar General (NYSE:DG) $21.07 +25.56% surging higher. Private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, which recently announced the largest private equity buyout in history for electric utility provider TXU Corp. (NYSE:TXU), said it was buying the retailer for $22/share, or $6.92 billion. The deal included the assumption of $380 million in debt.

The news helped lift fellow discounters Family Dollar Stores (NYSE:FDO) $30.42 +6.10%, 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE:NDN) $15.23 +5.69% and Fred's (NASDAQ:FRED) $14.82 +2.27%.

Today's U.S. economic calendar was light. The federal government posted a $120 billion deficit in February, up 0.60% from a year ago as tax receipts and outlays both set records. The $120 billion deficit was $3 billion less that the Congressional Budget Office's $123 billion deficit forecast.

Since Monday's Market Wrap, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $34.74 +0.37% and Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH) $139.63 -0.26% have been percentage winners.

Chip stocks as a whole may be tested for strength tomorrow after tonight's mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) $32.59 +0.40%. The world's largest maker of mobile phone chips updated analysts on its first-quarter sales and profit forecasts. The translated revenue forecast has sales looking flat-to-lower for a second-straight quarter to between $3.07 billion and $3.22 billion, compared to an initial estimate between $3.01 billion and $3.28 billion. The company also narrowed its EPS range between $0.29 and $0.33 per share from $0.28 and $0.34 per share. At the time of this writing, shares of TXN were trading $31.90 in the extended session, down $0.69/share, or -2.11% from today's close.

Strength in the oil service sector looks concentrated on the refiners. Energy prices were weak from the open, but refinery output remains tight as refiners get set for this summer's gasoline demand season. April Unleaded (rb07j) traded as low as $1.86 in Monday's morning session, but finished up just more than a penny at $1.9105. The widening crack spread between gasoline and oil futures (see 5-dayNet% and 20-dayNet%) likely finds some healthy margins for the refiners.

Frontier Oil (NYSE:FTO) $30.87 +0.88% and Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) $60.29 +0.09% are two stocks I keep an eye on in my "Watch List" for the Market Monitor. Both of these refiners are up 8.5% the past 20-days. Unfortunately, I've just been watching them.

My top 4 seeds....

In the OptionInvestor.com Market Monitor, I had made some notes/comments/observations to some index option activity, which on a near-term basis has me monitoring two levels for the S&P Depository Receipts (AMEX:SPY) $140.98 +0.14%.

While it would be impossible to say that two (2) trades I witnessed in recent weeks are "the trades" that depict some important levels of resistance/support headed into Friday's quarterly expiration, the RESISTANCE level of $141.40 from a March 7th (Wednesday) SELL bias in the SPY $140 calls for $1.40. In essence, there was some notable SELLING of this call (SFB-CJ) for $1.40, suggesting to me that there was either a WILLING and ABLE seller of SPY $140, or a NAKED premium seller of
$140 + $1.40 = $141.40.

Since we've seen what I consider to be some bullish NAKED Call squeeze-type of action into the last several option expirations, dating back to last summer, a key near-term levels, based on the above observation would be $140.40. Friday's intra-day high for the SPY was $141.42 and today's intra-day high was $141.34.

Let's quickly review the SPY daily interval bar chart, with the conventional use of retracement, as well as taking in the observation of where the SPY closed over the last several option expirations.

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) - Daily Intervals

Since earlier this summer, the SPY has shown UPSIDE moves into each month's expiration. Some have been MUCH stronger, or impressive than others, but each has managed to reclaim the PRIOR MONTH'S expiration close. This MONTH, I would think the SPY hard pressed to repeat such an effort, as it would have to RISE to $145.72 in order to reclaim February's option expiration close.

But there is some intra-day and near-term (5-day) activity and the falling Market Volatility (VIX.X), which measures put buyers/call sellers (a rising VIX.X) against call buyers/put seller (a falling VIX.X) that suggests the SPY may be vulnerable to another NAKED calls squeeze.

My option trade observations suggests $141.40 is a point to be monitoring closely, while the above chart would suggest the 19.1% retracement of $141.57 becomes a "flinch point" where pure NAKED CALL premium sellers may rush to cover positions (either buy back those calls, or buy SPY, or S&P Futures to hedge NAKED CALLS) into Friday's expirations.

Another level of SUPPORT, which may be influential into April's expiration is $138.74. On Thursday, here's what I saw when I had sorted the SPY Option Chain by CBOE Volume (number of contracts traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange). By the time I had sorted the option chain by VOLUME and got the screen captured, I noticed a "jump" in volume having taken place as the April $141 Puts had suddenly traded 6,000 contracts (equivalent to 600,000 shares of SPY) for $2.26/contract. It was a SELL bias trade in the OPTION, but a bullish stance at $141 - $2.26 = $138.74. At Friday's close, the Open Interest on this put had RISEN (suggesting there has been SELL to OPEN) trades (instead of SELL to CLOSE) taking place.

SPY Put Option Chain - Screen Capture 03/08/07 10:33:21 AM

I don't stare at an SPY Option Chain, but into an expiration, I'll take some notes. It just so-happened that after the SPY moved above the $141.00 strike, I had sorted the SPY option chain to see if there were any "big bets" being PLACED, or REMOVED based on the price action. When I sorted the SPY option chain, the SFB-PK had only traded 88 contracts, but by the time I had capture the option chain, a sizeable trade of 6,000 contracts had taken place. See the DnTickVol (Down Tick Volume)? That's SELLING of that PUT option. Somebody was making a large bet that the SPY does NOT close BELOW $141 - $2.26 = $138.74 by April 20th.

Simply make this observation, stick an alert on your trading software at that level. If the SPY breaks that level, then somebody may have to take action to protect the DOWNSIDE.

My #2 seeding (Dollar/yen) ...

Last Monday's Market Wrap "Yen in Doubt," Get Out! had equity bulls getting back in, but both the U.S. Dollar and the euro found gains since Monday's wrap.

Now, look again at the above SPY chart.

Now here's a daily interval bar chart of the U.S. Dollar/yen cross rate chart. This is measuring what a U.S. dollar is worth against the Japanese yen.

USD / JPY Cross Rate - Daily Intervals

March's quarterly option expiration ends on Friday, but the dollar/yen and the euro/yen trade has a long way to go in my opinion, and a relationship with equities that I will continue to follow.

You might note how "similar" the above USD/JPY chart looks when compared to the S&P Depository Receipts' (AMEX:SPY) chart.

As the dollar WEAKENED against the yen, not only did it create some jitters among U.S. equity bulls, but Asian markets fell sharply in the day's prior sessions.

The "basic" thoughts for this relationship is that while the above chart addresses dollar vs. yen, one could also say yen vs. dollar. The STRENGTH in the yen against the dollar creates bullish jitters in Japan as they depend heavily on EXPORTS to drive their economy. Too STRONG of a yen could have THEIR EXPORTS becoming MORE EXPENSIVE to U.S. consumers should the yen RISE.

If Japan's economy were to slow too rapidly as a result, then that can have NEGATIVE implications not only for the U.S. economy, but other global economies as well. China's equity markets were also hit lower earlier this month, as the yen showed some sudden strength.

When you look at the U.S. Market Watch, you'll note the currency weighted U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at the top is basically unchanged the past 5-days, yet the major market indexes have traded UP the past 5-days. To me, this brings greater focus on the yen and its relationship to other foreign currencies, than the dollar against other foreign currencies.

The MOST HEAVILY weighted currency in the Dollar Index (DXY) against the dollar is the euro, thus the "yen carry trade" is what is still in play. UP and DOWN.

As of tonight's trade, the more key levels for the USD/JPY trade would be 119 and 115.50.

For equity price action (i.e. SPY), we could really see some short covering action in the SPY if USD/JPY gets much above 119 (if it was yen in doubt, get out; then the opposite could be true) and the recent SPY lows become vulnerable on USD/JPY below 115.50.

Somebody made a LARGE BET Thursday, that that isn't likely to happen.

I'm running late on my editor's deadline, but will quickly show the EUR/JPY cross rate chart. Very similar to USD/JPY cross rate, and VERY similar to how European bourses have trades, as well as the SPY here in the U.S.

EUR/JPY Cross Rate Chart - Daily Intervals

If there is a BULLISH equity story to be told here, it is that Dorsey/Wright's Cross Rate charts of both the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are back on "buy signals." That is, both the USD and the EUR show demand back in control on a near-term basis against the yen.

For homebuilders, the message the MARKET seems to be sending is that it is concerned about what lenders are going to do regarding their lending requirements for new/existing home purchasers, with less than stellar credit ratings.

Using the $DJUSHB price action as a guide, I'm rather cautious, or defensive toward the homebuilders until the DJUSHB can manage a CLOSE back above 655, which marks a current 61.8% retracement of the 07/18/06 low close, to recent 02/02/07 relative high close.
 


New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
None BZH None
  RYL  

New Calls

None today.
 

New Puts

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 34.20 chg: -1.77 stop: 37.55

Company Description:
Beazer Homes USA, Inc., headquartered in Atlanta, is one of the country's ten largest single-family homebuilders. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We are heading into spring, which is usually the start for prime time home buying season. Yet the homebuilders are breaking down. This widespread weakness in the sub prime lenders has infected the builders. The market is worried that an industry-wide tightening of the country's lending practices is going to spell fewer sales for the homebuilders. We are adding both BZH and RYL to the play list. We suggest you only pick on to limit your exposure should the group turn around. We like BZH because shares are breaking down under support near $35.00 and breaking down from a short-term consolidation pattern. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April puts.

BUY PUT APR 35.00 BZH-PG open interest=4785 current ask $2.30
BUY PUT APR 30.00 BZH-PF open interest= 490 current ask $0.55

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

---

Ryland Group - RYL - close: 45.31 chg: -1.49 stop: 48.27

Company Description:
With headquarters in Southern California, Ryland is one of the nation's largest homebuilders and a leading mortgage-finance company. The company currently operates in 28 markets across the country and has built more than 265,000 homes and financed more than 225,000 mortgages since its founding in 1967. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
RYL is another homebuilder that is suffering as investors fear that the trend of tighter and tighter lending practices will hit sales of homebuilders. The recent oversold bounce from $45.00 has already failed and the stock looks poised to breakdown under support. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $44.75. If triggered our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. We do have a wide stop just above Friday's high. FYI: The P&F chart for RYL points to a $29 target. We suggest that readers only play one homebuilder since the group still looks oversold and might bounce. The stock does have a high amount of short interest at 24% of the float and that raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April puts.

BUY PUT APR 50.00 RYL-PJ open interest= 9328 current ask $5.40
BUY PUT APR 47.50 RYL-PW open interest= 1280 current ask $3.60
BUY PUT APR 45.00 RYL-PI open interest=12875 current ask $2.20
BUY PUT APR 42.50 RYL-PV open interest= 2297 current ask $1.25
BUY PUT APR 40.00 RYL-PH open interest= 7039 current ask $0.70

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

New Strangles

None today.
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

Cigna - CI - close: 140.09 chg: +0.14 stop: 134.75

There is still no significant change in shares of CI. The stock has been trading almost flat, hovering on either side of $140, for about six days in a row. Eventually rising support at its 50-dma is going to catch up with the share price. We're going to stick to our plan for now but with option expiration coming up this weekend don't be surprised to see CI continue to trade sideways. Our suggested entry range to buy calls is the $137.50-135.00 range. The newsletter will use a trigger at $137.49 to "open" the play. The stock should have support near $135 and its rising 50-dma (now at $135.70). We suggest that readers watch the initial pull back for signs of a bounce before initiating positions. If triggered our target is the $145.00-146.00 range. We are suggesting a stop loss under the 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand

---

Carbo Ceramics - CRR - cls: 45.38 chg: -0.17 stop: 42.45

The morning dip in CRR to $44.78 looks like another entry point to buy calls. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. CRR is a relative strength play. Helping fuel the rally are rumors that CRR may be a takeover target. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. FYI: CRR might qualify as an oil services stock. The most recent data (February) puts short interest at over 15% of CRR's 18.7 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 11 at $ 45.55
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 458 thousand

---

ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 129.83 chg: +0.48 stop: 125.95

Our bullish call play in ESS is now open. The stock broke out over resistance near $130 on an intraday basis. The intraday high was $130.38. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $130.26. Now that the play is open our target is the $137.00-140 zone where we expect ESS will encounter some resistance although its first challenge is the 10-dma nearing $131.00. At this point in the play we would either look for a dip and bounce near $128.50 or a new move over $130.25 before initiating new positions.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

---

Noble Energy - NBL - close: 57.90 chg: -0.70 stop: 55.75

Crude oil suffered some profit taking today and NBL followed it lower. Shares of NBL lost 1.1% and they're currently testing the 10-dma. We would not be surprised to see a dip towards $57.00. We would use a dip or a bounce in the $57 area as a new entry point to buy calls. More aggressive traders may want to put their stops under $55.00. We do expect some resistance near $60.00 but our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 06 at $ 58.02
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 05/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

---

New Century - NEW - close: 1.65 chg: -1.56 stop: n/a

If anyone decided to pursue our lottery ticket high-risk/high-reward play in NEW then today's decline offered a better entry point. Yet even today's decline is up for discussion. The NYSE halted trading pending a "news" event so we can't see in the time and sales data where NEW ever traded at $1.66 during normal hours today. Most chart and quote services are showing a gap down to $1.66 with over 1.5 million shares trading in volume today. If you missed our weekend play description we listed NEW as a call play with the expectation that the company would either file for bankruptcy or announce that it's being acquired in the next few weeks. Today's news might hastened the bankruptcy event. NEW disclosed that it had received letters from all of its lenders that they were discontinuing their financing for the company. Remember, this is very high risk and odds are good that the company could go under and our calls would be worthless.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.56
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

---

Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 86.73 chg: +0.38 stop: 83.49

TAP continues to show relative strength. The stock rose 0.44% and briefly traded over resistance near $87.00. We're still on the sidelines and suggesting readers use a trigger to buy calls at $87.15. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new all-time high over $88.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand
 

Put Updates

Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 63.93 chg: +0.14 stop: 67.55

ASH traded sideways under short-term resistance all day except for a very brief spike late this afternoon. The stock spiked to $64.83 before quickly reversing back under $64 and its 10-dma. This might be the failed rally we're looking for and if it is then ASH should continue lower tomorrow. More conservative traders may want a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Change since picked: - 1.89
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

---

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 51.12 change: -0.38 stop: 52.51

BOL slipped to a 0.7% loss and is inching closer toward support near its 200-dma and the $50 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakdown under support near $50.00. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.49. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $49.00 to lessen the risk that we'll be triggered on an intraday spike lower. If we are triggered at $49.49 our target will be the $44.00-42.50 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

---

Harman Intl - HAR - close: 98.02 change: -0.55 stop: 102.01

It looks like HAR is beginning to roll over. This might be a new entry point for puts. We would use a failed rally from here or under the $100 level as a new bearish entry point to buy puts on HAR. Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand

----

MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.62 change: -0.43 stop: 23.06

HZO has produced a bearish failed rally under short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma today. The stock under performed the market with a 1.9% loss albeit on low volume. We remain bearish on the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jeff Bailey and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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