How about another call for a top? It's been, oh, a good week and half since I've called one (wink). With today's decline there is some evidence that the bounce against the decline from the February high may have finished. I will of course lay out my reasons why in the charts below but there definitely seems to be some cracks developing in the bull dike. With all the bullish talk out there I thought it would be worthwhile to hear the other argument--I'll show with charts why I'm bearish this market (and with that many of you will close this and never read any further, which of course is your prerogative but you might miss out on some things that will make you at least think about your positions).
As expected, the bullish sentiment during the bounce from the March low has hit extremes. I say as expected because I've been saying it would be typical for that to happen, especially after the first real scare in a decline that broke a longer term uptrend, as happened to the uptrend lines from last summer. Not only that but that decline occurred with huge and record down vs. up volume. I think it was the kickoff to the new bear market. Strong rallies, even with good breadth, are the hallmark of bear market rallies. Now that the indices are back up and knocking on the door to new highs (new highs for some like the NYSE), the bullish analysts have been out in force declaring their brilliance in telling everyone to buy the dips. They of course could be right and again I feel like the lone wolf howling at the moon (or Chicken Little with another episode of the "sky is falling").
With a market rally the past few days into the FOMC minutes (or held up is probably the better way to put it) there was a good chance for disappointment. We already had a good feel for what was in the minutes as the Fed heads have been out in force the past week ensuring that we knew what was in the minutes. But the market preferred to turn a deaf ear and the bullishness has been holding the market up.
I could get into lots of reasons why the market will struggle this year, including the housing market (today's news included more trouble for the home builders after KB Home announced they don't see a bottom in sight yet, mortgage applications continue to drop, and home prices are expected to fall this year for the first time in 38 years) but I've beat that horse to death. Credit standards continue to tighten (at a very fast pace) and this will cause a significant slowing in capital growth. Credit contraction is what causes recessions (or worse). But tonight I'm going to focus on several technical readings and show why the above is important for the longer term but as traders we need to watch what's right in front of us.
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The big news today, and really the only market moving news, was the FOMC minutes released at 2:00 PM. The market had already sold off from the open but it was getting a nice bounce into the afternoon. The release of the minutes sent the markets to new lows. Bonds also sold off today and that spiked interest rates back up. Speaking of rates, here's the updated chart for the 10-year yield:
10-year Yield (TNX) chart, Daily
The 10-year yield made it up to its 200-dma near 4.74% and backed off. But today it got a bounce back up near its recent high. It could press a little higher to its downtrend line from June 2006 but it looks ready for a pullback soon. It could stay trapped a little longer in a sideways triangle but I think after pulling back some it will then break higher and head for a Fib projection and longer term downtrend line near 5% (closer to the Fed rate of 5.25%). Fed funds futures are pricing in 5.25% through at least the summer now.
So we have interest rates working higher (making borrowing costs higher), credit standards tightening (making it more difficult to borrow funds for spending, investments, etc.) and now the Fed appears to have taken their printing press off line for some preventive maintenance:
Calculated M3 Money Supply, Weekly, courtesy nowandfutures.com
Note the fast drop in the rate of change. This tells me the Fed has become increasingly concerned about the inflationary pressures as a result of their easy money policies. They desperately need the bond market to sell off and ratchet up interest rates so that they don't have to. They know that they will psychologically kill the market with another rate increase. They'll avoid that like the plague. And they know they can't continue to stoke the economic fires with free money. In my opinion the slowing of money growth will have negative ramifications in the stock market because of the lack of new capital being injected into the monetary system through the stock and bond markets (through their primary dealer mega banks' trading teams).
I see a lot transpiring against the Fed right now and have been stating since last summer that the Fed will find itself painted into a corner--they can't raise rates for fear of killing the economy but they can't lower them for fear of fanning inflation. And now they can't keep their printing presses operating for fear of the inflation monster. What's a Fed to do? I suspect they're doing lots of nail biting right now. My take on this is that the stock and bond markets will start to get it and when they do they'll sell off.
That's sort of bigger picture stuff. The charts show a shorter term view that the supports the idea that we're on the verge of the recognition wave down--the one that makes most understand that buying the dips will have to be done much more carefully and that the bull market may in fact have finished its cycle.
Continuing with the FOMC minutes, the released minutes showed that the board members agreed that more rate increases might be needed in order to get inflation back in check. They acknowledged the potential weakening in the economy (probably due primarily to the housing market) and said they have many other tools to use other than raising interest rates. This would typically mean using their BPP-HDS (Ben's Printing Press and Helicopter Delivery System) but as the M3 chart above shows, they have not fully deployed that system recently.
The FOMC minutes showed the bankers were presented a worst-case scenario to chew on--simultaneous immediate slowing in the economy with accelerating inflation. This would of course be any Fed chairman's worst nightmare. Paul Volker, back in 1979, was the last to deal with a bad case of stagflation and he hammered the economy with brutally high interest rates to once and for all kill inflation. I remember buying my first house with a 13% mortgage and thinking I was lucky. When I refinanced at 9.5% (sub-10) you would have thought I'd won the lottery. The 1970s was a tough period for the economy and the stock market, with some huge swings high to low. Taking out the October 2002 low and then swinging back up to these highs in the course of 3 years would match what was happening back then. BTW, I think that's what we could see in front of us.
So the market's decline today may have been a result of sniffing out the bad odor in all this. We'll soon know for sure. The rally from the March lows has been petering out so we're due at least a pullback (even if it's from a minor new high this week first). If we get a corrective pullback that then leads to new highs it will be bullish. But that's not what I see happening. I believe the bounce is now over and we're preparing for another strong decline. I'll show both possibilities and key levels on the charts.
DOW chart, Daily
Today's pullback didn't even test the uptrend line from March 14th and this looks like a very bullish chart. Certainly the old adage about trading with the trend holds here--until and unless the DOW breaks below 12400, this chart says keep buying the dips. But daily oscillators caution that today's dip could get a little deeper and of course if that happens then both the 50-dma and uptrend line will be broken. A rally back up through 12600 is needed to keep the bulls alive here. A drop below 12242 would leave the bounce as a confirmed 3-wave correction and signify that new lows are coming.
Not shown on the chart but something I'm going to watch for is the possibility we'll see a sideways coil develop over the next few months. This possibility is based on the longer term rally pattern. So if you're in longer term put options, expecting a big leg down, be aware of the possibility for a long consolidation that kills the time premium on any options. Spreaders would of course love nothing better.
DOW chart, 60-min
This is a closer view of price action as it nears the uptrend line from March 14th. By breaking below 12496, the first key level for the bears, the only thing they need now is a break below 12400 to confirm the rally leg from March 30th is finished. The negative divergences at the recent highs were warning us that a downside break was right around the corner. Now the bulls want to see this correction be the end of it and see a push back above 12600 (which is where bears should have their stops).
SPX chart, Daily
Like the DOW this is a bullish chart--the uptrend line from March 14th is still holding and the 50-dma hasn't even been tested yet. This is a steep uptrend line though so those are much riskier to depend on holding. The dark red a-b-c bounce off the March 14th low would be confirmed a correction with a drop below 1409. A push back above 1455 would suggest the bulls are firmly in control.
SPX chart, 60-min
The previous low near 1435, and the uptrend line at the same level, makes it an important level for the bulls to hold. If they can do that and push it back above 1455 then they'll be firmly in control. But like the DOW, the negative divergences suggest the bulls have simply run out of steam to continue to push this higher. A break below 1424 (1st wave high within the move up from March 30th) would say the chances are very good we'll see a quick move below 1410.
OEX chart, Daily
Because of the corrective way the decline has started, from the February high, I'm thinking the decline will happen in a much choppier fashion than the strong impulsive move down I had been showing a month or so ago. Think of the way the decline happened in 2000-2002 and I'm thinking we might see the same kind of thing. Some of the legs down can still get incredibly sharp but so too can the rallies. It will make trading very difficult and for spread traders as well. Unless you get the right timing and sell way OTM, you could find your positions being threatened, on both sides, in the same month. But for an idea what could occur from here, this daily chart shows my preferred wave count.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) chart, Daily
Rather than a parallel up-channel, as I showed for the DOW and SPX, I've got an ascending wedge for the NDX. This is just an idea but it's based on some of the corrective wave structures I'm seeing--it's either a bounce that's correcting the initial move down from the February high, or it's part of the ascending wedge to a new high. The push to a new high would likely be choppy and full of whipsaws. If it holds above its 50-dma at 1783 then the bulls have a chance to run this back up. A break below that support would also be a break of its uptrend line. The bears need to push this below 1753 to leave the bounce from March 14th confirmed as a corrective 3-wave bounce.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) chart, 60-min
In addition to support at 1783 by its 50-dma, it's also the high on March 30th (the 1st wave in the rally from the March 30 low) and any break below that level would confirm that rally leg is finished.
It's often helpful to compare one stock vs. another or vs. an index so that you can determine relative strength. You'd prefer to be long the relatively strong stocks/sectors and short the weak ones. The thing to remember about relative strength (not to be confused here with RSI) is that the chart can be pointing down or up but it doesn't mean price is doing that. It only shows you how the stock/index is performing compared to the other.
NDX relative to SPX chart, Monthly
The above monthly chart compares the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) to the S&P 500 (SPX). Not surprisingly it shows the tech stocks significantly underperformed the broader market from 2000 to 2002. After a quick and relatively stronger jump off the market low in 2002, the techs have traded more or less in synch since 2003 with the broader market. If anything they've been losing a little as compared to SPX during the last 3-1/2 years.
And herein lies the problem for the market--when the market is bullish the techs and small caps (higher-beta stocks) typically outperform the larger caps. That's because fund managers feel bullish about the stock market and want to get more bang for their invested buck. When the large caps start to outperform the small caps it's generally considered a defensive posture.
I drew a line across the lows since 2004 and other than the brief break lower in 2006, that line is supporting the current decline in relative strength. If that line breaks then it should be significant because it will tell us that the tech stocks are underperforming the broader market at a time when analysts are feeling most bullish. While analysts are being bullish and telling you that you should be buying the dips, fund managers are quietly liquidating their tech holdings and getting more defensive. Keep this chart handy on your computer and keep it updated--you'll want to know when smart money has left the building.
Russell-2000 (RUT) chart, Daily
I have a similar ascending wedge drawn on the daily chart as I showed for NDX, and for the same reason. If this continues to press higher then it might be a very choppy ride to relatively minor new highs. Today the RUT broke its uptrend line from March 14th and the lower line I have on the chart is just an assumption right now based on the RUT finding support around its 50-dma just above 800. A break below 800 would likely have 791 being tested quickly and if that breaks then a 3-wave bounce will be left in its path and new lows are likely on the way.
Russell-2000 (RUT)chart, 60-min
I show a key level at 804, which was nearly broken today, as it is the 1st wave for the move up from March 30th. A break below that would say that rally leg is finished. Then 800 would need to hold but in reality a break of 804 would tell me 800 will also.
NYSE (NYA) chart, Daily
Lots of people got all excited about the new all-time high in the NYSE yesterday, even though it was by mere points. But a new high is a new high and the bulls are by no means finished here, yet. As I wrote on the char, it looks like a good setup for a double top for this index. Double tops separated by at least a month are more significant than ones only a week or so apart. As being more representative of the broader market, a double top here would obviously be bearish. After a minor push back above the top of its parallel up-channel from 2004, price fell back below it today. It also broke its uptrend line from March 14th.
NYSE (NYA) chart, 60-min
A couple of internal Fib projections for the move up from March 14th pointed to the same Fib area (9456) as the big one on the weekly chart (9455 is where a move above the 2000 high was equal to the move below it to the 2002 low). When I see this kind of Fib correlation I really take notice since it's probably not a fluke or coincidence. Now with the turn back down, following negative divergences at the highs, and a break of its uptrend line from March 14th, I'm calling a top to this one. I could be a bit early since really it's only a minor break--it could easily recover tomorrow. But lots of things line up for this double top on NYSE and I'm short the stock market against new highs for this index--keeps stops very tight and your risk is small.
They say you should always follow the money. In fact, digressing just a little, you've probably heard the trouble Don Imus is in for his crude and not-so-funny comments about the Rutgers female basketball players who made it to the NCAA final game. After a week of simmering behind the scenes all of a sudden advertisers, including P&G and Staples, have said they're pulling all of their ads from Imus' radio show if they don't do the right thing (fire Imus). All of a sudden with the lack of money coming in it's getting all kinds of media and network attention.
But I digress. Follow the money, and with the stock market that means look at volume associated with a move. A move with big volume is to be trusted and you should join it (except for capitulation events) but a move with dying volume means interest in the move is dropping and you should prepare for a reversal. With that, look at the NYSE and total volume:
NYSE and Total Volume (NYA) chart, Daily
I lined up the charts as best I could to show the big burst in volume (bottom chart) as the NYSE got hammered lower from its February high. Since that time, and during the rally back up to that high look at what volume has done--it has steadily dropped off where each new high was on lower volume. This is classic for a correction and does not support those bullish analysts saying we're at the start of the next major leg higher. Oh yea? Then where are the participants? Now on today's drop look at the volume--it broke the downtrend line. Other than the banks, shown below, this chart screams to get short the market.
BIX banking index, Daily chart
I said last week that with all the bullish scenarios I show on the charts (the bullish wave counts) my preferred counts are the bearish ones. The reason is the banks. Again, follow the money. If the banks aren't getting any I don't think anyone else is going to either. If Momma doesn't have any, you're not getting any either. The banks have had a funky pattern the past week and I keep thinking they're going to bounce. So far nothing but I still see that possibility. If they do get a bounce (maybe up to the 200-dma) then the broader market will probably bounce and I think it would be a better shorting opportunity. As long as the banks look weak I'd prefer to be short the market.
U.S. Home Construction Index chart, DJUSHB, Daily
Like the banks I kept waiting for another bounce leg in the home builders. Every time they looked ready to bounce another home builders would come out with dismal earnings AND a dismal outlook. This is now looking like the next big wave down is about ready to kick into gear. After a very weak corrective bounce in March this one could get ugly in a hurry. But that bullish divergence keeps me thinking there just might be a bounce coming...
Oil chart, May contract, Daily
Oil found support at its 50-dma and uptrend line from January. Support needs to hold here otherwise a break below $61 would likely mean the last low at $58.80 is in danger of being taken out. And if that happens then the bounce from the January low will be left confirmed as a 3-wave correction to the impulsive drop from July. An impulsive drop followed by a corrective bounce will lead to another impulsive drop. That would mean a drop well below its last low near $52. I don't have to understand why it would do that but only go by what the chart tells could happen. If you're long the oil stocks and oil drops below $58 I'd rethink my strategy of being long, funnymentals be damned in that case.
Oil Index chart, Daily
I show a bearish resolution here for the oil stocks if for no other reason I'm bearish the broader stock market and a receding tide lowers all boats. The current bounce from the March low looks close to completing and that means at least a pullback is coming. I have it completing an a-b-c bounce off the January low (same as oil). This is why I'm saying if oil drops below $58 I'd exit any long plays in these stocks. It takes a break below 630 to generate a stronger sell signal in this index.
Transportation Index chart, TRAN, Daily
The Trannies have a very similar pattern here to the DOW and SPX. No DOW Theory divergence here. If the a-b-c count for the move up from March 14th is correct we should get a quick decline to a new low where the uptrend line from March 2003 will be tested. It would surely provide a bounce but a drop to there would likely break it soon after the bounce.
U.S. Dollar chart, Daily
Some bullish divergences continue to suggest the US dollar is going to bounce any day now. The bearish sentiment on the dollar is thick enough to cut with a knife. Nobody believes in the dollar and that usually sets up a rally as the bears run for cover. What kind of bounce we get is still debatable--some believe it's ready to rally and break its downtrend line from March 2006. I think it will bounce but then drop to a new low before a stronger rally develops. The $81 area is very strong support going back to December 1998 before the big rally in the dollar, and then again in December 2004. While that level could break (which would be bullish for commodities, especially the metals), the bullish divergences on the monthly chart suggest that's not going to happen.
Gold chart, June contract (GC07M), Daily
Gold looks ready for at least a pullback. It hit the downtrend line from May 2006 and the mid line of its current parallel up-channel for price action since October. A pullback to its uptrend line (as a guess) followed by new highs would also be a break of its downtrend line and I'd be very bullish the shiny metal at that point. Keep an eye on what the dollar is doing in that case. But I'm bearish gold (at which point you're asking, geesh, is this guy bullish on anything? To which I answer yes--cash). Most assets have appreciated under an easy-credit environment and therefore most will depreciate during a credit contraction.
I think gold is completing, perhaps just completed, a correction to the leg down from the February high. That February high should have completed the correction to the decline from May 2006. In other words we should now be set up for a strong decline in gold (and probably stronger in silver). I like trading the metals because they can move very fast, in both directions, and you can make a lot of money. Right now, as I called out on the Market Monitor yesterday morning, I like the potential on the short side with a stop just above 687. Tight stop and big potential--my kind of trade. You can trade the gold futures contract or the gold ETF (GLD). Or you can trade options on the gold stocks (XAU).
Results of today's economic reports and tomorrow's reports include the following:
SPX chart, Weekly, More Immediately Bearish
This is a little closer view of the regular weekly chart in order to show the candles a little more clearly. Weekly stochastics has cycled back up near overbought (fast setting on that) while MACD has barely been able to lift its head. A roll back over in MACD would likely take MACD into negative territory and a trip back down to the bottom of SPX's parallel up-channel would likely be next on the agenda. That's down near 1300 and it could happen in May. It could even happen this month but I never like to bet on very fast moves. This market has the ability to stretch things out which is the reason I always suggest buying much more time than you think you'll need if you're buying long options. Spread traders of course want front month if they can get enough premium.
The Thursday prior to opex week has become known as the head fake day. This was first pointed out to me over a year ago and it has worked nearly every month since. Therefore we'll watch to see if we get the same setup. Right now it looks to me a like a brief bounce in the morning should lead to another sell off and then another consolidation followed by more selling probably into Friday. That scenario suggests the PPI numbers on Friday morning will be the excuse du jour for more market selling and then we'll put in some kind of temporary low.
That would then set us up for a rally into opex week to correct whatever decline we get this week (assuming we get it). The bounce would probably last into Wednesday, maybe Thursday, and then start another stronger leg down.
But if we get a rally tomorrow then the bullish wave count could be in play and we might rally into the end of this week. That would set up a down week next week. By the looks of what I see so far I think this Thursday/Friday will once again be the head fake day. If you want to play with the big boyz, buy a few lottery front month options and see if we get the opposite move next week to cash in. I say lottery because it's the kind of play you don't use a stop on--it either works and you're a hero or it doesn't and you're the goat.
Good luck in the next week and I'll be back next Wednesday. As always we'll try to nail down the turns with the daily roadmap updates on the Market Monitor. See you there.
Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 40.15 chg: +0.36 stop: 37.95
AAP displayed relative strength and ignored the widespread market weakness to breakout over resistance at the $40.00 level. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $40.05. Now that the play is open our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.
Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 92.59 chg: -1.66 stop: 89.49
There shouldn't be any surprises here. We have been warning readers that AAPL looked poised to move lower for the last several days. We suggested that readers watch for support near $92.00 and then again near $90.00. AAPL slipped 1.7% toward the $92 level today. Lack of momentum has turned the short-term technical indicators bearish so we're expecting the dip to trade near the $90 region. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold positions over the April 25th earnings report and plan to exit ahead of the announcement. More aggressive traders wanting to ride any pre-launch excitement for Apple's iPhone may want to break this rule and hold positions for several more weeks.
Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 111.55 chg: -0.66 stop: 105.75
Recent winners in the steel sector, like ATI, couldn't avoid the profit taking that hit the markets today. Shares fell 0.58% on almost average volume. Thus far broken resistance at $110 is holding up as support. We would still consider new entries if ATI bounces from the $110 level but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (maybe into the $107-108.50 region). Our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on April 03 at $110.26
Boston Properties - BXP - cls: 116.56 chg: -1.51 stop: 114.49
Negative news on the real estate market sent the REITs trading lower. The National Association of Realtors reported that they expect a fractional decline in home prices for 2007. This is the first annual decline in about 40 years. Investors did not respond well to the news. Shares of BXP dropped 1.2% and broke down under technical support at its 10-dma and 100-dma. The stock looks poised to trade toward its recent lows near $113.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our plan was to buy a breakout over $120 with a trigger at $120.75. We do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report.
Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Caterpillar - CAT - cls: 66.35 chg: -0.60 stop: 65.45
CAT continues to consolidate lower. The recent failed rally near the $68 level is starting to look more and more like a bearish reversal and short-term top. The MACD on the daily chart just turned negative. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines. It was our plan to buy calls with a trigger at $68.55. We are waiting to see if CAT can bounce from the $66 level or not. A bounce tomorrow or Friday and we'll keep watching. If CAT slips under $65.50 or the 200-dma we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. If triggered at $68.55 our target is the $73.00-74.00 range under the August 2006 highs. Traders should keep in mind that we do not want to hold over CAT's earnings report, which has recently been confirmed as April 20th. That doesn't give us a lot of time and less nimble traders may want to avoid CAT altogether at this point.
Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Cigna - CI - close: 146.89 chg: -1.65 stop: 141.39
Short-term technicals are starting to look dangerously close to a bearish reversal in CI. Shares of CI plunged this morning toward the $146 level before bouncing at the 10-dma. The longer-term up trend is still intact but short-term the lack of momentum looks dangerous. CI could easily dip toward $144 or even the 50-dma near $141.50 before bouncing and not break the long-term up trend. We would hesitate to open new positions here unless CI offered a very clear entry point. Our target is the $154.50-155.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $150. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.
Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Core Labs - CLB - cls: 87.55 chg: -0.88 stop: 81.95
The oil inventory numbers this morning were bullish for the oil sector. Yet crude oil only gained about 12-cents. Oil stocks were unable to build on yesterday's gains. Shares of CLB look poised to dip back toward broken resistance and what should be short-term support near $86.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. The P&F chart is bullish with a $115 target. Currently we have two targets. Our conservative target is $92.00. Our aggressive target is the $97.50-100.00 range, which might be a too optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.23 chg: -0.22 stop: 64.85
Caution! COP has produced what looks like another failed rally (bearish reversal) at the $70.00 level today. The intraday high was $69.96 and the stock closed in the red. The big news with COP today was an announcement that the company supports regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. This is a big move coming from one of the largest U.S. (and global) oil companies. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in COP at this time. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range in COP. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Infosys - INFY - cls: 51.97 chg: -0.11 stop: 49.79
Time is almost up! INFY is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. It has been our plan to exit at the closing bell on Thursday to avoid holding over the earnings report. Today's session was interesting given the spike higher this morning, failed rally under $53.00, and the big volume. Fueling the stock's moves today were some analysts comments. One analyst firm upgraded the stock to a "buy". Another firm started coverage with a "market perform". We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $54.75-55.00 range.
Picked on April 03 at $ 51.69
Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.61 chg: -1.44 stop: 97.49
It's not looking good for LMT. The stock's recent bounce has failed. Shares have produced a bearish reversal and failed rally under the 50-dma in the last couple of sessions. Odds are growing that LMT will breakdown under support near its rising 100-dma and the $95.00 level. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying puts on a drop below the 100-dma (95.65). We will strongly consider switching directions and buying puts if it looks like LMT will break the $95.00 level. Currently our plan was to buy calls on a breakout over $100 with a trigger at $100.25. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.54 chg: -0.51 stop: 63.89
The rally in NUE is struggling to keep the momentum alive. Trading over the past couple of sessions hasn't been very inspiring. Shares could bounce from the $66.00 level and readers could use it as a new entry point to buy calls. However, in the current market environment we hesitate to open new call plays. The market is starting to act like the next move will be down. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $65. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have much time. Traders will need to exit ahead of the April 19th earnings report. FYI: We do expect some resistance at $70. Don't be surprised to see NUE bounce around the $67.50-70.00 range for a couple of days.
Picked on April 09 at $ 67.55
F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 67.59 chg: -0.04 stop: 71.01
The move today might be a short-term top for FFIV but we would suggest looking for a decline under $67.00 or even $66.00 before considering new put positions at this time. The larger pattern looks bearish and poised to consolidate lower but the bounce a couple of days ago was fueled by strong volume. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: FFIV can be volatile so expect a lot of up and downs in the option prices.
Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 48.37 chg: -1.03 stop: 50.05
The homebuilders suffered another blow today. The National Association of Realtors announced their forecast for home prices to slip 0.7% annually in 2007. This is the first decline in about 40 years. Pouring salt on the wound was negative comments from one of the builders saying that they expect it to get worse before it gets better. Shares of MDC reacted with a 2% sell-off and a drop toward short-term support near $48.00. Aggressive traders might want to use this as a new entry point for shorts. We are going to stick to our plan with a suggested trigger to buy puts at $46.95. If triggered our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. Prepare for some support near $45.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $35 target. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report so our target might be a little optimistic. Then again, stocks tend to drop faster than they rise.
Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 62.12 chg: -0.28 stop: 57.87
We are suggesting an early exit in HOC. The stock did hit a new all-time high today at $63.60. Unfortunately, shares gave back its intraday gains and closed in the red on above average volume. Today's move looks like a short-term top and bearish reversal. HOC had already hit our conservative target near $62 and we had been aiming for the $64.75-65.00 range. We are no longer going to risk it and suggest exiting now. We'll keep an eye on HOC for a pull back near $60 or even $58 as a potential entry point to consider new call positions.
Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
While dozing at my desk today, my Option Investor Newsletter (OIN) inbox alarm bell rang and I was abruptly jarred awake by the following OIN Subscriber e-mail QUESTION: "Would today's price action constitute a 1 day or key reversal as you discussed from time to time?"
** E-MAIL QUESTIONS/COMMENTS **
In the recent market run up I've been thinking that a re-test of the prior highs, which are not all that far away in the lead S&P 500 (SPX), is a likely outcome for the recent rally dating (initially) from a month ago. Relative to yesterday's SPX intraday peak around 1449, the prior high for the multimonth advance is at 1461.5, made on February 22nd and is not all that distant.
The general definition of a One-Day Reversal (acronym: ODR) down that suggests a TOP: A large 1-day upward price spike, followed by the price of the index or stock closing near the low of that day. A one-week reversal down is the same but price action is measured on a weekly time frame. The reversal or price consolidation that is suggested in a ODR is a short (up to 3 weeks) to intermediate-term (up to 3 months) bearish reversal.
Under this definition NONE of the major indexes had a rally to a substantial new high for the recent advance; no intraday high was made that was above yesterday's peak price for the day and by definition here a 'spike' is a move up to decisive new high (or down to decisive new low). I will show charts where there were One-Day Reversals (ODRs) down and ODR up and what happened as far as this type chart action 'signaling' a sustained (3 weeks to 3 months) reversal in the trend afterwards.
What we had today was an apparent short-term rally failure in that prices retreated well under the prior two days' low and made a new 5-day low Close. What IS significant to me concerning a possible trend change is not a 1-day reversal down pattern (that didn't happen), but the reversal from the prior downside GAP area in the Nasdaq index charts. I'll today also go into a possible rally failure from the area of resistance implied by the high end of chart 'gap' in the case of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the pullback that happened after the Nas 100 (NDX) chart gap was 'filled in'.
Going back to One-Day Reversals: There is something called a chart pattern 'failure'. In the case of the ODR down it's where the formation of the pattern does NOT result in a sustained trend reversal thereafter. The so-called failure rate of the ODR down chart pattern according to one study is only around 24%; that is, only about 24 percent of the time is there NO trend reversal that follows AFTER a ODR down. The average decline following such a downside reversal in STOCKS is 10-19%. There tends to be heavy volume on the reversal day, but volume thereafter recedes quickly. There are rebounds about 70% of the time BACK to the price area where the reversal took place, followed by a second wave of selling and a price decline. I'll talk about the One-Day Reversal UP further on, after a look at some charts.
I did not outline today's price action in my first chart; today's action is easy to see as the last bar on the SPX daily chart below. There was of course no 'spike' up to a substantial new high followed by a close near the low; rather, there was only a close near the low. Today's price/chart action did fulfill the definition of a 1-day reversal pattern.
I've outlined TWO similar earlier 1-day patterns in yellow (#'s 1 + 2) that were much more extreme in how far down SPX went on those days. But in each case (back in November and in February), there was an immediate rebound (#1 example) or at least only a short-lived trend reversal in example #2 although that day saw a very steep decline. It is what the pattern suggests about the subsequent TREND that is what I am keying in on here.
Example #3 was a One-Day Reversal (ODR) UP as, in this example in March, the ODR up criteria was fulfilled; i.e., a large 1-day downward price 'spike' with prices then closing near the HIGH (VERY near on this day). The percentage gain from this day's low at 1364, up to yesterday's high around 1449, equals a 6 percent rise to date. A pretty healthy run up so far after the ODR up back on March 14th.
I gave figures above for STOCKS of an average DECLINE of 10-19 percent AFTER a ODR Down. For a One-Day Reversal UP, it's not quite as much, with the most likely rise in the STOCKS studied by Thomas Bulkowski being between 10 and 15%. Moreover, the amount of decline or amount of rise is not as much in the INDEXES as in STOCKS after either a One-Day upside or downside Reversal. I haven't done a study on this, but as you know, a 10% rise for example in SPX is a far more significant thing than a 10% rise in a stock trading at 30 or 40 dollars.
TThe pattern vis a vis the S&P 100 as to either a ODR Down (none) or a ODR Up (one) for the period shown above with SPX, is the same in the S&P 100 (OEX) with the rise from the low of March 14th when a ODR up occurred, to yesterday's high, also around 6 percent.
I have to go back a long ways to find an example of a ODR Down in the S&P and Dow Indexes, but want to stay more current. Since ODRs Up AND ODRs Down in stocks are more common, I'll take an example of a 1-day downside reversal or actually two of them, for Google (GOOG); the daily chart of which is seen next below:
Not only was the January top a 'double top', relative to the November high, but the pattern on the second top's price action (on 1/16) also constituted a ODR Down; i.e., there was a spike up to a substantial new high, then beaten back by selling which caused GOOG to close the day near its low. A couple of weeks later a rebound carried back up to the price area where the ODR occurred. I mentioned already that such rebounds back to the area where the reversal occurred is pretty common, about 70 percent of the time in one study of such patterns in stocks. It is so common in fact that it suggests that in terms of buying PUTS on the stock, it might be advisable to WAIT for such a rebound to occur.
A second 1-day downside reversal occurred this year in GOOG and the rebound over several weeks after that has carried the stock back to the area of that second ODR down; and, to date at least, prices have backed off from THIS area. Stay tuned on whether this continues!
GAP AREAS THAT SUGGEST RESISTANCE (OR SUPPORT)
I mentioned in my recent Index Trader column about Nasdaq, resistance and perhaps a capping of the recent rally could occur in the downside price gap area that was made a back in late February when prices fell from one day to the next such that the high that following day was well under the low of the preceding day; creating a price 'gap' on the chart. Such overhead gap areas often act as later resistance where there could be substantial selling interest. First, something about the same ORR Up seen on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart about a month ago.
The day highlighted as #1 on the NDX daily chart below appeared to be an upside reversal, at least no LOWER low was seen after that day. However, a reversal of the TREND (back to the upside) did not really get underway until there was NOT ONLY a spike low, but where prices then also closed near the day's high; in example #2 this was right AT the day's high. After this ODR up, the rise has been substantial.
As for the resistance question relating to an overhead chart gap: There is an old saying about how 'gaps get filled in'. There is more to this old saw, in that gaps tend to get filled in followed by prices (the trend) then reversing. A more simple way to say it, per John Murphy, is that gap areas ABOVE current prices tend to act as resistance and gaps BELOW current prices tend to act as support.
Recent price action in Nasdaq, with a number of key tech stocks pulling back after NDX's gap was precisely filled in, raises the question of the staying power of this recent rally, even though there are no other signs of a reversal such as of the One-Day variety I've been discussing.
There was the beginnings of an 'overbought' condition seen in the S&P (first chart), but overbought/oversold is not a conclusive indicator that a trend reversal is or will be occurring. However we don't probably have long to wait as we stay tuned to what's next on the Street of Dreams!
GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Keene H. Little, Trader's Corner by Leigh Stevens, and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
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