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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 04/24/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Close But No Cigar

IBM powered the Dow for another strong gain while the rest of the indexes moved sideways. 13,000 beckoned all day but the Dow was unable to make the stretch. IBM announced it was raising its dividend by one third and boosting its stock buyback program by a whopping $15 billion. This produced a +$4 spike in IBM shares and that equates to about +30 Dow points. Honeywell, another Dow component added +1.75 points giving the Dow another 12 point boost. The Dow struggled intraday to within 11 points of Dow 13,000 but retreated back to 12,950 by the close.

Dow Chart - 30 min

Nasdaq Chart - 30 min

The big news of the day was the -8.4% drop in existing home sales in March. This was far worse than any estimate and the news knocked the major indexes back to three day lows when it was announced. The market dip was short lived but the weakness in the housing sector remains. Home prices remained flat but inventory levels are now at 7.3 months of supply, 17% above the same period in 2006. The drop was the largest drop since 1989 and the sales rate was the lowest since 2003.

Companies are continuing to blame the housing blues on their weak performance. Today GM blamed the housing slump for losing its lead as the largest automaker. Toyota sold 2.35 million vehicles in the first quarter and GM only sold 2.26 according to preliminary estimates. GM said the reduction and availability of home equity due to falling home prices and disappearing loan options had reduced the amount of cash available for auto purchases.

The first reading of Consumer Confidence for April showed the headline number falling to 104.0 from 108.2 in March. This was also below analyst estimates of 105.5. The present conditions component fell from 138.5 to 131.3 and the expectations component fell from 87.9 to 85.8. That was the first drop in the present conditions component since October. The internal components for jobs and business conditions also fell. Higher gasoline prices were still being mentioned as a concern.

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The business conditions in the Richmond Fed region remained weak in April with the Richmond Fed Survey dropping to -11 and the 5th month in negative territory. Shipments fell to -15 from -10 and the six-month outlook slipped to 19 from 26. This report is following the same trend as the New York and Philly Fed surveys indicating the over all business conditions remain weak. The economic calendar for the rest of the week includes the Beige Book on Wednesday and the GDP on Friday as the remaining highlights.

On the earnings front there was plenty of news. I mentioned Whirlpool in Sunday's commentary as a key event for the week. Whirlpool (WHR) reported earnings of $1.55 per share on continuing operations. This compares to analyst estimates of only $1.15 per share. Revenue jumped +24% to $4.39 billion, also above analyst's estimates of $4.11 billion. WHR also said it was restarting its stock buyback program it had put on hold when it acquired Maytag. The combination of factors saw WHR stock spike +$12.50 to $102.85. More importantly it shows that global appliance sales are still strong despite cautious comments from WHR on U.S. revenue. WHR said sales in North America fell -9.5% and projected sales for the full year to decline by up to 3% if the housing slump continued. Shorts who had been expecting bad news were crushed by the better than expected global results.

Apple was the recipient of some good news today with their earnings due out tomorrow. The former CFO agreed to settle with the SEC by paying a $150,000 fine and returning $3.5 million in option profits. The former CFO, Fred Anderson, had agreed to cooperate with the SEC on the probe. The SEC also announced they were filing charges against former Apple counsel Nancy Heinen. In papers released by the SEC it appears Apple has been given a pass in corporate accountability and CEO Steve Jobs may also escape any penalties. After the deal with Fred Anderson was announced he fired a parting shot at Jobs saying everything he did was done with the full knowledge of Jobs. Jobs reportedly told Anderson the board had given full approval for the grants and would verify it in the official documents. Anderson said he acted on Job's assurance and concluded the grants were being handled correctly. In today's release by the SEC they said they would not be filing any actions against Apple partly due to the degree of assistance received from Apple in the investigation.

Vonage was also given another reprieve in its patent case with Verizon. A Federal court issued a permanent stay removing the injunction forbidding them from signing up new customers. This allows them to continue business as usual until the patent issue is eventually resolved in the appeals process. This removes the potential for bankruptcy at least for the immediate future. VG jumped +40% on the news but sellers appeared quickly and saw the spike as an opportunity to exit.

Amazon reported blowout earnings after the bell and immediately jumped more than 10% in after hours trading. Amazon said profits more than doubled and were helped by a lower tax rate and a +32% jump in sales. Profits were $111 million or 26 cents per share compared to 12 cents in the comparison quarter. Analysts were expecting only 15 cents. Amazon trades at nearly 50 times earnings compared to only 21 times at Ebay. Amazon also gave stronger than expected guidance for the current quarter and full year.

The Energizer bunny (ENR) keeps going and going and that produced profits of $1.14 per share compared to analyst estimates of 85 cents. This produced a $6.25 spike in the stock to $97.26. Revenue jumped +16% and they said higher costs for the rest of the year would likely be offset by retail price increases.

Paccar (PCAR) surprised analysts with earnings of $1.37 compared to estimates of $1.20. Shares closed at $86.56 with a +$7.77 gain after peaking at $90.70 earlier in the day. PCAR makes commercial trucks and truck parts. PCAR said business outside of the US accounted for more than 50% of sales and produced the profit gains. The weak US sales were due primarily to accelerated purchases by dealers in 2006 to beat the new emission laws. Those inventories will soon be depleted and PCAR will again be selling in the US market. PCAR did guide slightly lower for the rest of 2007 but analysts were already projecting weakness.

Snap-on (SNA) jumped +7.41 to $56.20 on earnings that jumped +76% to 66 cents per share. Earnings beat analyst estimates of 53 cents on new products and lower costs. Sales in North America rose +16% and previously announced cost cutting efforts were paying off.

Not all earnings surprises were to the upside. Dow component Lexmark (LXK) fell -10% or -$5.57 on weaker than expected results. The company blamed declining inkjet sales, aggressive hardware pricing and higher operating expenses for the weak results. Net profits fell to 96 cents missing the street estimates for $1.03. Lexmark is facing increased competition and aggressive pricing has them selling inkjet printers at a loss while hoping to make it up on future sales of ink. They guided lower for the current quarter with revenue expected to fall in single digits. Earnings are expected to fall to between 82 to 92 cents and analysts were expecting a rise to 95 cents.

Coach (COH) posted a 38% increase in profits to slightly beat street estimates but then warned that future growth may be less than expected. COH estimates were for 2007 earnings to be $1.67 per share with analysts expecting $1.72. COH fell -3.09 on the news. Analysts were quick to suggest any drop was a buying opportunity given their plan to open 40 new stores per year in the U.S. for the next few years. They are on track to open 30 new international stores with eight in China. The CEO was on CNBC and complained that its products were finding their way into the discount market and into stores like Wal-Mart. He said he had no control after distributors took delivery and the appearance of their products in the discount market was bad for the high end Coach image.

Earnings are continuing to surprise mostly to the upside. This is definitely a quarter where companies under promised and over delivered. This has been key to the market advance to 13,000. For those companies already reported 67% have beaten estimates, 17% reported inline and only 16% missed. Currently earnings are showing growth of 10.8% and well over estimated in the 3% to 5% range just two weeks ago. Thomson Financial warned that investors should not expect this to continue with weaker companies still to come. However, if everyone only reported inline with estimates for the rest of the cycle earnings would come in at 6% growth. Currently we are seeing upside surprises running a 5:1 ratio over negative surprises.

Oil prices rose sharply on Monday and gave back a large portion of those gains today to close back down at $64.58. Yesterday's spike to $66.30 may be over in the minds of some traders but the long summer is still ahead. The EIA reported gasoline consumption in the US was growing at a +5% rate and double what analysts had predicted. Prices are all over the map. I personally paid $2.74-$2.84 in Albuquerque New Mexico and Dallas Texas last week and $2.94 in Oklahoma City. Service stations in Northern Kansas on I70 nailed me for $3.09. This week I paid $3.14 in Utah and $3.24 in Las Vegas. I am headed to Los Angeles later this week and then up to San Francisco over the weekend. I am afraid to even guess what I will pay there. Next week I will be in Salt Lake and then stop off to visit my son on an oil rig in Big Piney Wyoming before heading back to Denver. I will be the first to admit this trip is going to crimp my wallet from feeding my SUV. I am hearing of $3.50 gas on the West Coast and prices soaring in Florida. We are not even close to hurricane season and summer driving is still 6 weeks away.

Boone Pickens was interviewed on CNBC again today and he reiterated his expectations for Peak Oil to occur over the next 12 months. He feels global oil production will peak around 86 mbpd and oil prices will begin their permanent rise higher. The +5% demand growth in gasoline consumption in the US is just one clue that higher gas prices have been accepted once again and drivers have resigned themselves to bigger fuel bills. Of course there were other analysts claiming oil would return to $40 but it is easy for them to project ridiculous targets when they have nothing invested. Pickens has billions of his own invested in oil and billions from investors in his energy fund BP Capital. He obviously has a reason to talk oil prices higher but that will only work on a very short term basis. If he loses billions by calling it wrong he will fall back into obscurity. I am betting with him on this one. He is predicting $80-$100 oil in 2008.

Wednesday's oil inventories are expected to show a -1.5 mb drop in crude but a build of +500K bbls in gasoline and distillates. Refinery utilizations are officially expected to rise to 91% but there was some news today that suggests it may not continue rising. Valero cited power outages in Texas as the reason for several production drops. BP also reported problems at its Whiting refinery that could slow production for months to come.

Exxon announced completion of a new record length for a single well. The well dubbed Z-11 drilled to a measured distance of 37,016 feet or 7.01 miles. This is not straight down and even more incredible it was a horizontal well with the most of that distance horizontal under the ocean. This is just another reason why future oil supplies are going to be much harder to produce and more expensive.

BP reported earnings that were less than exciting due mostly to falling production rates and the lower price of oil over the quarter. BP reported production had fallen to 3.91 mbpd from 4.04 mbpd in the comparison quarter. BP's profits fell -17%.

The Dow may be flirting with 13,000 but the rest of the indexes have gone back to their consolidation action we saw for most of last week. Dow 13,000 is only a psychological level and has no material technical merit. With the majority of the Dow components already reported there will be far fewer events to provide an additional upward spike.

The Nasdaq has stalled at 2525 exactly as expected since this is fairly strong resistance. With tech stocks not providing the same market boost as the weighting sensitive Dow it may be significantly more difficult to produce that Nasdaq breakout. The Nasdaq futures are only showing a minor +$2 pop from the Amazon news. 2500 remains support but 2525 remains strong resistance.

The S&P-500 has also failed to move higher despite some strong results from individual components. Resistance at 1485 is holding with even stronger resistance is waiting at 1500 and 1527.

Russell 2000 Chart - 30 min

The Russell-2000 has also stalled at 830 and is working on a potential 2nd lower high from the 832 level hit back on April 17th. This suggests fund managers have cooled their buying enthusiasm and may be cautiously looking at a potential "sell in May and go away" event. The NYSE Composite has also stalled and has now stretched its consolidation at 9600 to seven days.

We are facing a timing problem as the markets spend time at their recent highs. This consolidation phase could end with another buy program inspired sprint higher as it has several times in recent weeks OR lacking any energizing event the rally could just expire at this level as May approaches. Without any surprise by Friday I would lean towards a top being formed at this level.

Apple will be the focus on Wednesday as they report their earnings. It will be even more important now that the SEC has decided not to pursue any further charges against Apple or their officers. It is the equivalent of a get out of jail free card ahead of what could be strong earnings. Microsoft will report on Thursday after the close with traders very interested in Vista statistics.

I would continue to play the long side of the market but be very conscious that the markets are very extended. I stand ready to reverse to a short if the Russell fails again at 830.
 


New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
None None None

New Calls

None today.
 

New Puts

None today.
 

New Strangles

None today.
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 41.06 chg: -0.13 stop: 38.59

We don't see anything significant in AAP's trading today. Bulls stepped in to buy the dip near $40.60 this morning. The weekly chart shows potential resistance near $42.50 and then significant resistance near $45.00. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.24 chg: -0.27 stop: 91.01 *new*

Shares of AAPL displayed some volatility on Tuesday. The erratic trading was due to news that the SEC was bringing civil charges against two former AAPL execs but they aren't going after the company or Steve Jobs - at least that's how it stands now. The high today was near $94.60 but there was a bad tick during the intraday choppiness that put the intraday high at $96.39. We want to remind readers that we're exiting tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid earnings. We are raising our stop loss to $91.01.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Abercrombie - ANF - cls: 82.53 chg: -0.35 stop: 79.85

Retail stocks were still reacting to Target's news yesterday that April same-store sales would be less than expected. ANF witnessed some profit taking this morning but traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma. We told readers yesterday to look for a dip or a bounce near the 10-dma as a new entry point. If ANF can trade over $84.00 it should reverse the Point & Figure chart into a new buy signal. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings.

Picked on April 22 at $ 83.51
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 05/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 152.76 chg: +0.12 stop: 147.75*new*

CI posted another minor gain and continues to produce a bullish pattern of higher lows. Shares are getting closer to our target in the $154.50-155.00 range so we're not suggesting new positions. We do not want to hold over CI's earnings report in early May. FYI: More conservative traders may want to lock in a profit right now! Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $147.75.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: + 4.77
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 107.15 change: -0.79 stop: 106.85

Transport stocks did not find any strength in crude oil's pull back today. Shares of FDX lost 0.7% and broke the short-term bullish trend of higher lows. If FDX doesn't bounce soon we'll probably drop it as a candidate. Rival UPS might provide a catalyst with UPS' earnings report expected tomorrow. You can see that FDX has resistance at its 200-dma near $110.25-110.50. We are suggesting calls if FDX can breakout over resistance. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $110.55. This might be considered an aggressive entry point given potential resistance at the 50-dma and 100-dma still overhead near $111.75. If we are triggered at $110.55 our target is the $116.00-117.50 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $115. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the March sell-off.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

---

Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 62.28 chg: -0.56 stop: 59.49

A 2.4% drop in crude today almost erased yesterday's 2.6% rally and the pull back definitely weighed on the energy stocks. HOC slipped 0.9% but managed to hold the $62 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting call positions now or on a dip near $60.00. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand

---

Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 49.88 chg: +2.07 stop: 44.75

We do not see any changes from yesterday. JOYG churned sideways hugging the $50.00 level for most of Tuesday's session. The stock hit our conservative target in the $49.85-50.00 range yesterday. We are not suggesting new positions. Our aggressive target is the $52.25-55.00 range.

Picked on April 12 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 3.40
Earnings Date 05/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

---

McKesson Corp. - MCK - cls: 60.77 chg: +0.29 stop: 57.99

MCK displayed some relative strength with a 0.4% gain on improving volume. Traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma and the stock rallied to a new multi-year high. Today's move looks like another entry point. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on April 19 at $ 60.15
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

---

Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.71 change: -1.83 stop: 63.99

Uh-oh! A bearish forecast from U.S.Steel (X) prompted some heavy profit taking in the steel stocks this morning. NUE reversed yesterday's bullish breakout. The stock plunged back under resistance/support and closed with a 2.6% loss. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from here. Conservative traders will want to think about an early exit to cut their losses or wait for a new move over $68.50 before considering new plays. The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target. FYI: We would expect a little bit of resistance near $70.

Picked on April 23 at $ 68.51
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million

---

Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 102.81 chg: -0.63 stop: 97.49

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on WYNN. Shares continue to have a bullish pattern of higher lows but momentum is beginning to wane a bit under resistance near $104. We plan to exit ahead of the early May earnings report. Our target is the $108.00-110.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near the late February highs around $106.60. FYI: WYNN's P&F chart points to a $120 target.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 05/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 94.82 chg: -2.25 stop: 98.35

Company Description:
Headquartered in Bethesda, Md., Lockheed Martin employs approximately 140,000 people worldwide and is principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. The corporation reported 2006 sales of $39.6 billion. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We are doubling-up on LMT. The stock is currently in the newsletter as a strangle play. Now we're adding it as a put play. The company reported earnings this morning and while they beat estimates the revenues were light and guidance, while better, was not enough to stave off any profit taking. Shares produced a very clear cut bearish reversal today. Volume was very big. We are suggesting puts right now with shares under $95.00. Our short-term target is the $90.50-90.00 range where we expect LMT to find support near $90 and its rising 200-dma. We have a wide stop due to LMT's volatility today. More conservative traders may want to put their stop near $96.65-96.50.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May or June puts.

BUY PUT MAY $95.00 LMT-QS open interest=1325 current ask $1.85
BUY PUT MAY $90.00 LMT-QR open interest= 469 current ask $0.45

BUY PUT JUN $95.00 LMT-RS open interest=4621 current ask $2.65
BUY PUT JUN $90.00 LMT-RR open interest=3408 current ask $0.95

Picked on April 24 at $ 94.82
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

---

Chicago Merc.Exc. - CME - cls: 531.30 chg: -16.10 stop: n/a

CME reported earnings today and investor's were not happy with the results. The stock continued to plunge and shares closed with a 2.9% loss on above average volume. The next level of support looks like $525 and then the 200-dma near $515. We are not currently suggesting new strangle positions. The suggested options we had listed were the May $580 call (CNM-EV) and the May $530 put (CNM-QF). Our estimated cost was $13.00. We want to see if either option rises to $18.50 or more. Currently the CNM-QF puts are trading around $$11.50.

Picked on April 22 at $555.89
Change since picked: -24.59
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand

---

Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 94.82 change: -2.25 stop: n/a

The markets were not happy with LMT's earnings either. The company beat estimates by two cents but revenues were light. LMT did offer a brighter picture for the rest of 2007 but it wasn't bright enough to stop any profit taking. Shares have produced a very bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal) pattern. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more. The LMT-QR puts are trading near $0.45 a piece.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 0.58
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Boeing - BA - close: 93.67 change: +0.03 stop: 89.85

Our time is up for the call play on BA. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid tomorrow's earnings report. Wall Street expects BA to report a profit of $1.01 a share. In the news today BA announced more deals from the U.S. Navy and another large order from Virgin Atlantic for the new 787s.

Picked on April 18 at $ 92.35
Change since picked: + 1.32
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

---

ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.64 chg: -0.96 stop: 68.75

We have run out of time with the call play on COP. Unfortunately, a 2.4% decline in crude oil drug on the energy stocks today. Shares of COP lost 1.35% on Tuesday. COP reports earnings tomorrow morning and analysts are looking for a profit of $1.90 a share.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 3.33
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

---

HESS Corp. - HES - cls: 57.12 chg: -0.19 stop: 55.45

Time has also run out on our HES call play. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow and Wall Street expects a profit of $1.17 a share. It was our plan to exit tonight.

Picked on April 15 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

---

Jones Lang Lasalle - JLL - cls: 107.03 chg: -3.45 stop: 106.75

Ouch! We have been stopped out of JLL. We warned readers yesterday that Monday's move could have been a bull trap. Yet there was no way to predict that an analyst downgrade for JLL this morning would produce a spike lower to $104.54. Traders did buy the dip near its 50-dma but we would have been stopped out at $106.75.

Picked on April 23 at $110.51
Change since picked: - 3.48
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 98.49 chg: +3.28 stop: 96.06

IBM does not want to cooperate with our bearish designs on the stock. The stock really was looking bearish but that changed after management announced another $15 billion stock buy back and raised their cash dividend. IBM's rally today accounted for most of the DJIA's gains. We had been waiting for a drop under $94.00 (trigger 93.89) to open positions. At this time we're dropping IBM as a bearish candidate unopened.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.8 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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