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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 06/05/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Falling Rain

They say in every life a little rain must fall. That is also true for bull markets. Today's dip was just a passing cloud without the added excitement of lightning and thunder. Without rain it is impossible for flowers to grow and the same is true for stocks. Without a weekly buying opportunity buyers will just wait on the sidelines rather than buy the top. When the rain clouds come those buyers emerge to frolic in the rain like Gene Kelly in his famous dance routine. Those smiles from being given another buying opportunity could quickly turn to frowns if the rain turns into a flood but there are no signs of increasing precipitation today.

Dow Chart - 120 min

Nasdaq Chart - Daily

The lone clap of thunder to start our drizzly day came when the ISM Services report blew in with a headline number of 59.7 compared to estimates of only 56. This upside surprise boosted the index to levels of activity not seen since April-2006. The services index rebounded much more sharply than the manufacturing index released on Friday. That index rose only .3 points to 55.0. Today's +3.7 point spike in services indicates the economy may be rebounding much stronger than previously expected. Since the U.S. has been moving to more of a services based economy rather than increasing its manufacturing base we should see the services index rebound more quickly. This was the second consecutive month of strong gains with a jump in April to 56.0 from 52.4. March was the low point for this cycle at 52.4. The employment component rose to 54.9 from its March low at 50.8 indicating an increase in hiring and hiring means owners are optimistic about the future. Unfortunately the prices paid component rose to its cycle high at 66.4 showing that inflationary pressure are increasing at least in the services sector. This could be directly related to the price of gasoline given the record levels seen in May. Only 4% of companies surveyed reported seeing lower prices. New orders rose to 57.4 but order backlogs fell into contraction territory at 48.0. This was the second consecutive month of declines in backlogs. The biggest boost of all came from new export orders, which spiked +10.5 points to 66.0. Inventories also spiked +9 points to 61.0 suggesting companies are stocking up for what they hope will be a strong summer season.

The ISM Services report was the only major economic indicator this morning but it was enough. The markets plunged on the ISM news and on expectations that the next Fed move will be a rate hike. You know how many times expectations for cuts/hikes have changed in the last year. I feel like a metronome just in reporting it. Hike, cut, hike, cut, on and on for a year now. After today's news the odds of another reversion back to a rate cut scenario is highly unlikely for the rest of the year. The stronger than expected economy, moderating inflation as seen in the PCE deflator and treasury yields at 5% should keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year. However, analysts are now leaning even stronger toward the possibility of rate hikes before year-end. Everything is pointing towards a strong GDP of as much as 3.0% for Q2 and even higher for the rest of the year. How quickly we are moving right back into strong growth mode and that tends to fuel inflation. That brought the inflation bears out to play in today's market but the bulls have not given up. They claim having the Fed on hold until late in the year is a good thing and even if there are a couple more hikes it would only be due to a strong economy and that is good for stocks. Obviously this topic will continue to be discussed for months to come.

Bernanke spoke on Tuesday in what could have been termed another economic report. Bernanke stressed that his primary concern is inflation now that the economy is on the road to recovery. He said, "On average, over coming quarters, we expect the economy to advance at a moderate pace, close to or slightly below the economy's trend rate of expansion." That would be about 3% growth according to economists. He said some of the factors that slowed the economy in Q1 "seem likely to be at least partially reversed in the near term." He also said the downturn in housing is still ongoing and the drag from that sector may last "for somewhat longer than previously expected. Thus far, however, we have not seen major spillovers from housing onto other sectors of the economy." His comments on inflation helped pound the nails into the rate cut coffin and prompted further selling in treasuries. The yield on the ten-year note rose to 4.99% intraday high and a level not seen since August 2006. Rates at 5% or above are typically negative for equity markets.

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Tomorrow's reports include Mortgage Applications, Challenger Employment Report, Productivity and Costs and Oil and Gas Inventories. None are expected to be market movers.

It was a very quiet day in the markets despite the triple digit intraday drop. The merger and acquisition train steamed right along losing no speed. Silver Lake and TPG Capital partnered to buy Avaya (AV) for $8.2 billion. Avaya was sitting on $829 million in cash and no debt. Despite that cash hoard and sales of $5.15 billion in 2006 they posted a net profit of only $200 million for the entire year. That would not be my choice for an $8.2 billion investment but maybe they see the opportunity for a large improvement. Avaya executives said they would be able to move faster to improve the company if they don't have to worry about meeting the short-term concerns of public investors. Avaya's main competitors are Cisco, Nortel and Siemens. That is a tough group to fight. Israeli communications company Alvarion (ALVR) spiked +7% on 13 times normal option volume after the Avaya deal was announced. Evidently somebody thinks ALVR will be a takeout as well.

Apple Inc rose slightly to $122 and change after announcing the release date for the iPhone and being upgraded by Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. Credit Suisse raised their price target to $140 from $120 and Morgan raised their target to $150. I took profits at $118 last week so I am watching those gains from the sidelines.

Google closed at a new historic high at $518.95 after an agreement with SalesForce.com (CRM) was announced. SalesForce will put out a new version of its software so its 32,300 customers can distribute their online ads through Google. Some analysts speculated that a successful integration would make SalesForce an acquisition target very quickly. Google also announced they were buying PeakStream Inc, a startup that sells programming tools for high speed computer chips with multiple processors. Google will also start brokering radio ads on its website on Wednesday.

Amazon (AMZN) saw its shares rise to a seven year high on news they were going to increase their investment in China. A +5% gain to $73.65 took Amazon to a post-bust high and their PE nearly to triple digits. The Chinese Internet site Joyo.com was bought by Amazon in 2004. Amazon shorts have been getting crushed after the late April breakout. On April 13th there 48 million shares short or roughly 10.1 days to cover according to the Nasdaq. That total rose to 54 million shares on May-15th. Average daily volume was around 6 million shares until the news squeeze began on April 16th. Today Amazon traded over 30 million shares and I heard two analysts recommending it as a short at this level. For a company that has been written off as a pending failure for years and dead money for the last three it appears Jeff Bezos has returned to rock star status.

Amazon Chart - Weekly

CROX jumped +2.88 after debuting a new line of shoes that are not made of their colorful trademark plastic. The new line was targeted at "fashion conscious" women. Retailing for $149-$299 are made from lamb's wool, leather and suede with only the soles made from resin.

Intel announced a new series of faster chipsets expected to jump off the shelves because of the new high performance capabilities. That includes PCI Express 2.0 slots, which doubles bandwith for graphics cards and various HD Video features including high definition audio for up to 7.1 surround sound theater systems. These chipsets would also interface with HDMI components to allow PC driven HD theater systems. Investors were not impressed and Intel closed near its lows for the month.

Oil prices held their gains to close near $66 as we await inventory levels tomorrow and the impact of Cyclone Gonu in the Persian Gulf. Gonu was headed for the Oman coast with 120 mph winds as it traversed the Indian Ocean and headed towards the Straits of Hormuz. It was classed as a the first ever category 5 cyclone for that region but it weakened slightly on Tuesday to a category 4. A large portion of the world's oil (20mbpd) is shipped through a mile wide lane through the shallow straits. The arrival of the cyclone could delay tanker entry and exits from the Persian Gulf for 3-5 days and that could drive up oil prices. If Gonu does any damage to any of the oil fields surrounding the gulf we could see oil go a lot higher very quickly.

Cyclone Gonu

You can't listen to 30 min of any investment channel without hearing several mentions of China in a dozen different contexts. Lately it has been on fears that a collapse in their markets would lead to a global meltdown. On Monday the Shanghai Composite fell -8%. On Tuesday it opened with another -7.3% drop but investor rushed into the combined -15% dip to send it soaring +2.6% higher by days end. With a -15% dip you could have expected the U.S. markets to implode as we saw back in February when it happened the first time. I am sure a prolonged drop in China would have some impact on the U.S. but with their index up over 50% for the year everyone knows there is plenty of room for volatility without any serious ramifications. With Chinese brokerage accounts being opened at the rate of 300,000 per day, yes, no misprint, 300,000 per day, there will be plenty of new money flowing into every dip. With 300,000 newbie investors with no investing skills hitting the market every day the end result is eventually going to be ugly. Remember the Nasdaq in 2000 was fueled mostly by new investors with no skills. Most of them blew all their gains and their initial investments when the bust came and that is likely to happen in China as well. But, that is a story for a future newsletter.

For a -123 point intraday drop you would have expected a little panic or maybe some stops getting hit. Instead the major indexes slipped gently back to support and buyers started drifting back in at the close. There was no rush to buy the dip and that could be the subtle difference indicating a change in the wind. Buyers were there and willing to buy support but nobody was chasing prices higher. Volume was heavy at 5.6 billion shares and as you would expect lopsided with a 5:2 advantage going to the sellers. Still, there were no signs of an impending disaster. Since equity disasters rarely telegraph their presence I would not hang my hat on a lackluster sell off as bullish news. We are currently in the longest period since 1926 without a correction and the bears like to keep reminding us of that statistic. The ISM simply provided the bulls with an excuse to take profits and let the bears reload their shorts.

The Dow declined from its 13690 high on Monday to support at 13550 intraday. That flurry of buyers returning at the close managed to add +40 points to close just under 13600. The Dow has a lot of support at 13500 and we could easily have another triple digit day to the downside without causing any harm to the rally.

The Nasdaq declined to just below 2600 and a level that is turning into pretty decent support. Tech stocks rebounded quicker and with greater volume to lift the Nasdaq +15 points from its intraday low. After six days of gains it was time for the Nasdaq to rest and I don't consider a -7 point day anything but noise. 2620 is currently near term resistance. We could decline to strong support at 2540 without a material impact.

NYSE Composite Chart - Daily

S&P-500 Chart - 120 min

The S&P fell back to 1530 and I fear that number will continue returning to haunt us. It was a challenge as resistance back in mid May and I am hoping that resistance turns into support but we spent most of Tuesday below that level only to sneak higher at the close. The S&P has support at 1520 and again at 1510 and 1500. There are plenty of levels to regroup if the bears mount a concentrated attack.

As the week before option expiration I expect at least one day with a major move this week. Funds have been exiting expiring options earlier each cycle but I don't think today was it. There are no material economic reports the remainder of the week and we will be at the mercy of buyouts, buybacks and news events. Thomson Financial reported today that share buybacks hit a record $110.5 billion in Q1 and announced buybacks were already over $80 billion in Q2 and on pace to set a new record. As I discussed before this is removing available stock from the market at a historic pace. Add in the rapid pace of buyouts at around $100 billion a month and you have a lot of support under the market. These corporations buying back stock will have their buy orders in just under the bid to provide support but not be accused of pushing prices higher. This underlying bid should keep us from any major disasters but we can't count on it and overly extend our purchases. With margin loans at a record level any sharp drop could begin tagging those stops and take on a life of its own. Until we see evidence of a sentiment change in the market I would continue to buy the dip.
 


New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
None None None

New Calls

None today.
 

New Puts

None today.
 

New Strangles

None today.
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

Baker Hughes - BHI - cls: 85.48 change: -0.07 stop: 79.95

Oil stocks were no exception to the market's widespread profit taking on Tuesday, although BHI faired better than most. Traders bought the dip in BHI near $84.50. We see the rebound from its lows today as another bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart has reversed from a sell signal to a new buy signal with a $94 target.

Picked on June 04 at $ 84.26
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

---

Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 73.36 chg: -0.38 stop: 69.95

Tuesday turned out to be a volatile day for shares of CHAP. The stock spiked higher to $75.94 this morning and then quickly reversed course. Buyers eventually stepped in near the $72.25 level. Overall the move today is somewhat bearish with a failed rally under $76.00. We are now suggesting that readers wait for a new move over $75.00 or over $76.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $72.00 level. We do have two targets. Our first target is the $79.50-80.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $84.00-85.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $99 target.

Picked on May 30 at $ 73.69
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 07/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 801 thousand

---

Carpenter Tech - CRS - cls: 136.53 chg: +1.38 stop: 129.90

CRS displayed relative strength on Tuesday with a 1% gain and on above average volume. We would consider new bullish positions here. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new high over $138 before buying calls. The P&F chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal that points to a $170 target. Our target is the $147.50-150.00 range although we would expect some resistance near its all-time high around $142.

Picked on June 03 at $135.67
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 429 thousand

---

F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 80.47 chg: -1.42 stop: 74.95

The NWX networking index was one of the few sector indices to close in the green today. Unfortunately, FFIV lagged its peers. What's even more disappointing was that FFIV couldn't rally after one analyst firm issued some positive comments on the stock this morning. We remain bullish with shares above $80 but we suspect the stock is poised to dip toward $78. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops appropriately. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 81.54
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

---

Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 70.35 chg: +0.10 stop: 65.90

GSF spent Tuesday's session trading sideways. Yet shares did manage to hit a new all-time high and close in the green. We remain bullish here or on a dip near $68.00. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart displays a triple-top breakout buy signal with an $87 target.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

---

Altria Group - MO - cls: 70.68 change: -1.12 stop: 69.90

Another down day for the bond market pushed yields to 5% for the first time in months. This event weighed on almost every stock that has a significant dividend yield. A U.S. bond with a 5% return is usually seen as a lot safer than equities. Shares of MO responded with a 1.55% decline. The action over the last couple of days is turning the short-term technicals bearish. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit. We are expecting a dip toward $70.00 soon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 03 at $ 71.82
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 11.7 million

---

OM Group - OMG - cls: 61.79 chg: -0.77 stop: 59.85

The action in OMG is looking bearish. We mentioned how upward momentum had been struggling. Now today's breakdown under the 10-dma is another bearish development. The stock should have support near $60.00 but if the markets continue lower then we would expect OMG to see some significant profit taking and stop us out. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $68.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $86 target.

Picked on May 27 at $ 62.44
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 801 thousand

---

Sunoco - SUN - cls: 83.37 chg: -0.80 stop: 79.45

As expected the $85.00 level is acting a overhead resistance. Shares traded to $84.99 and turned lower. We warned readers to expect some profit taking. A dip back toward $80 would not be out of the question. The stock has already hit our target in the $84.00-85.00 range. Now we're aiming for the $88.00-90.00 range. Watch for a bounce above $80 as a new entry point. The updated P&F chart has seen its buy signal rise from $94 to $109 over the last several days.

Picked on June 01 at $ 80.26
Change since picked: + 3.11
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

---

Tesoro - TSO - close: 63.14 change: -0.81 stop: 57.99

We need to urge a little caution on TSO. The candlestick pattern over the last three days is starting to look like a bearish reversal. We are still expecting the stock to find some support near $62 and again near $60.00 but readers should be on guard. Wait and watch for a bounce before considering new bullish positions. We remain bullish on the sector. Our target is the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 63.74
Change since picked: - 0.60
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

---

Vangard Emergy Mkts ETF -VWO- cls: 88.53 chg: -0.49 stop: 84.99

The VWO showed some weakness this morning but traders were buying this dip by the closing bell. The ETF was down 0.5% but volume was very light. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The ETF is near our target in the $89.85-90.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on May 16 at $ 86.15
Change since picked: + 2.38
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand

---

XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 61.02 chg: -0.59 stop: 56.74

We are encouraged that XTO did not see more profit taking today. The stock gapped down but traders bought the dip near $60.00. The news about XTO issuing another 15 million shares has not derailed the rally yet. Our target is the $62.50-65.00 range. Aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 3.39
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Anixter Intl. - AXE - cls: 71.77 chg: -0.84 stop: 72.05

AXE posted its third decline in a row. The technical indicators are starting to roll over again. We're still waiting for a breakdown. Currently it is our suggested strategy to buy puts on a breakdown under $68.50. We are considering a higher trigger point at $69.00 or just under $70.00 but for now we'll stick with a $68.49. More nimble traders might actually want to scope out potential bullish positions if AXE can trade over resistance at the $75.00 mark.

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 520 thousand

---

Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 83.29 chg: -0.49 stop: 82.55

We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Nimble traders might want to consider buying calls on a breakout over $84.50 or over $85.00. We might switch directions on a move over $85.00. Currently we've been waiting for a breakdown under $80 and the bottom of its trading range. Our suggested trigger is at $79.90. Readers should note that the stock is set to split 2-for-1 on June 25th.

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

---

Vital Images - VTAL - cls: 27.22 chg: -0.33 stop: 29.05

VTAL sank to another new relative low today. The overall trend continues to look bearish. Our target is the $25.15-25.00 range.

Picked on May 16 at $ 27.99
Change since picked: - 0.77
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 191 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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