I've said this before and it will always be true--following the money trail is the way towards finding answers to many questions. The big question on most traders' minds of course is which way this market is going. We had a big drop from the July high and the market has been holding up fairly well since then. The bullish pundits continue to pound the table about the buying opportunity that the latest decline presented to long term "buy-and-holders". This strategy has worked for so long and is therefore perfectly understandable. When it stops working there will probably be some surprised faces on Wall Street. What we of course are attempting to do is identify beforehand whether or not the market may have topped out.
So far those who bought the August low have been nicely rewarded and like the Pavlovian response the bullish traders stay bullish with the expectation that dips are to be bought and those who buy will be rewarded. It's what reinforces the same behavior time and again and keeps those traders expecting the same result. I happen to believe the July high was an important one and that the bounce off the August low is simply a correction to the July-August decline. I don't believe that because I'm fundamentally bearish (although that's certainly part of my analysis) but I believe it because of what the charts are telling me. I believe it because of the time cycle we're in and the combination of the bearish EW (Elliott Wave) pattern along with the seasonal and decennial patterns is what makes the market particularly vulnerable at this time.
I know people don't like to hear bearish things about the market. It's much easier to feel bullish than bearish. When I tell family members to go to cash they think I'm one of those survivalists (just because I have a Montana ranch where we grow all our own food and don't need anyone else...just kidding folks). It's real simple what we do as traders--we try to get on the right side of the market and trade with it. We should be neutral and follow the market. We should make as much money on the down side as the up side. It just so happens it's more difficult to make money in a bearish market (you can make it faster but the moves against you are much stronger and faster as well).
While I base my trades strictly off the charts I also work hard to keep track of what's happening around us so that I have a heads up to what might be coming down the road. If a chart pattern is confusing and it's a choice between a bearish vs. bullish outcome then I like to see what fundamental reasons might swing the vote. My discussions in these Wraps have tended to focus on what could cause problems for the bull market. For this I have been labeled a permabear. So be it. I'm not big on titles. When we're fully established in a bear market I'll be looking for problems for the bear market and I'll probably be labeled Pollyanna. I'll get over it.
I'm going to go on record here and declare that the Fed will drop the Fed funds rate next week but it will only be a .25% rate cut to 5.0%. Linda and I will be switching Market Wraps next week so I won't be back here with you until Thursday. By that time the dust will have settled post-FOMC and we'll get to see how the market reacts to that. I'll explain below with the 10-year yield chart and the SPX chart why I believe the rate cut will only be .25% (I can't even imagine what would happen if the Fed stood firm on the current rate).
As we head into next week, which is opex week by the way (triple witching opex at that), all eyes are on the Fed and what they're going to do with interest rates. The market has priced in virtually a 100% chance for a .25% rate cut and a 74% chance for a .50% rate cut. If the Fed makes the cut (no pun intended) to 4.75% (.50% cut) do you think we could see a sell-the-news reaction? If the Fed only cuts to 5.00% (.25% cut) do you think the market will have a hissy fit? Do you want to be long the market next Tuesday afternoon? Me neither.
The market has rallied bonds strong in the past 2-1/2 months and in so doing it has knocked the 10-year yield down from 5.3% to 4.3% at Monday's low. It has since rallied to 4.4% today. So it has effectively priced in a full percentage point decline. But here's the interesting thing about the 10-year--it looks ready for a strong bounce if not rally. Here's the monthly chart of the 10-year yield:
10-year Yield (TNX) chart, Monthly
The internal wave pattern of the move down from the June high looks like a clean 5-wave move. That means at a minimum it's ready for a correction of that decline and I think we've seen the low for now. So if rates are going to bounce what does that tell us about what the Fed is going to do? To me it says the Fed could disappoint the market and show that it's not willing to aggressively slash rates like the market thinks/wants. So the stock market could be set up for disappointment as well.
For the weekly pattern of TNX I show two possibilities from here, both short term bullish (so bearish for bonds). The bearish wave count (dark red) shows a correction of the June-Sept decline, perhaps back up to near 4.95%, which would be a typical 62% correction of the decline (and suspiciously close to 5.0% which would be a .25% rate cut). From there we'd see renewed buying in the bonds in 2008 which would drive yields to new lows (and the Fed would probably follow).
The bullish price pattern calls the June-Sept decline as the finish to a 3-wave pattern within the ascending wedge (labeled wave-D in green) and this interpretation calls for rates to increase into 2008 to finish the ascending wedge pattern that started from the 2003 low. This scenario suggests inflation will continue to be a problem, even if the economy is slowing down, and rates will be driven back up with that threat (and a Fed that can't reduce rates and may be forced to raise them instead).
Which way yields go after a bounce should become clearer as the bounce progresses but for now understand that this pattern calls for higher rates and that could be telling us something important about the upcoming FOMC decision. I'll review why the pattern in the stock market could be telling us the same thing, particularly with the SPX 60-min chart below.
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Gasoline supplies also dropped, down -700K barrels to 190.4M. This is the sixth straight week for a decline in gasoline supplies and they're down -14.3M barrels since late July. The API data disagreed with the Energy Department's data on this as API showed an increase of +3.3M barrels to 200.2M. The Energy Department had distillates up +1.8M barrels to 134M while API had them up +5.7M at 137.6M.
Refinery utilization dropped to 90.5% from 92.1% the previous week and that's a sizeable drop. This attributed to the drawdown in gasoline supplies.
DOW chart, Daily
The bounce off the August low is a well defined 3-wave bounce and a 3-wave move is a correction to the previous move. That means we should expect another leg down and that's what's shown with the dark red price depiction.
If you like to follow EW counts and for those who question the 3-wave move down from July I say good eye. The first thought is that a 3-wave pullback against the longer term uptrend should mean we'll see a continuation higher to new all-time highs. In fact many Elliotticians are calling for just such a move. This is where the art of interpretation (as with any technical indicator) comes into play. In corrective wave structures you need to explore many different possibilities.
I believe the longer term wave count from October 2002 is complete at the July high (which says the bull market finished there) and therefore it doesn't call for another leg up here. The 3-wave move down to the August low, as I'm interpreting it here, makes up a larger degree wave-A, and the 3-wave bounce into September 4th makes a larger degree wave-B. That calls for a large wave-C to the downside and that's what I'm showing.
DOW chart, 60-min
The decline from September 4th should have kicked off the large wave-C down as I explained on the daily chart. I'm showing a 1st wave down to the September 10th low, a 2nd wave bounce to today's high and now get ready for a stronger decline in a 3rd wave down. That's the bearish interpretation. It's possible we're still in a larger upward correction which calls for a rally up to the 13800 area. I show it as a possibility even though I think the chances of that happening are very slim. But the DOW needs to break below 13024 in order to negate that more bullish possibility.
SPX chart, Daily
The same daily pattern exists for SPX as I discussed for the DOW. The 3-wave bounce from the August low ended on September 4th and now we should be in the early stages of a strong decline in wave-C on the chart. I show a price and time projection based on typical wave relationships and it's pointing towards the 1250 area by mid-October.
The larger A-B-C move down from July into October (assuming this is how it will play out) will then create an even larger degree wave-(a) and we'll then be due a large 3-wave bounce into the end of the year for wave-(b). Following that bounce would likely be a very strong and protracted selloff into 2008. The price pattern will probably look similar in a lot of ways to the decline in 2000-2002.
SPX chart, 60-min
Also like the DOW's 60-min chart I show the bullish potential for a pullback to be followed by a press higher, potentially getting up above 1510. But I don't think the chances are very good for that move. More likely is a break of the uptrend line from August 16th through the September 10th low, currently near 1452. Then a bounce back up to retest the broken uptrend line before letting go to the downside in a stronger 3rd wave down.
The interesting thing about this price projection is that it shows a market selloff into Friday of this week and we've often seen the market get driven to lows on the Thursday/Friday before opex week. Then they rally the market during opex so they can cash in on all the cheap front-month options purchased (or shorted) during the selloff. So that fits the pattern here. But then a typical retracement of the leg down from today's high would take SPX back up to its broken uptrend line near 1468 by Tuesday September 18th. From there we'd be due a very strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down. These are the screamer waves.
And it falls on FOMC day. If this wave pattern sets up like this on Tuesday you'll want to stuff a few puts in your pocket. It says the market is not going to like the FOMC rate decision and that's the other reason I think the Fed only gives us a .25% rate cut. The 10-year yield and the stock market's charts are both in agreement here so now we'll have to see if I'm right on that call. Could be fun.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) chart, Daily
NDX has the same chart pattern as the DOW and SPX. The 3-wave bounce off the August low should have ended on September 4th and today should have ended the correction to the first wave down from that high. I show the projection for the next leg down, wave-C, to the 1650 area by mid-October.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) chart, 60-min
From the September 4th high I'm showing an impulsive decline followed by a corrective bounce (it was a double zigzag a-b-c-x-a-b-c bounce which can be seen more clearly on a 10-min chart). This says we'll see selling for the rest of the week and you should look for bounces to get short. Price needs to drop below 1944 in order to negate the bullish possibility that we'll see a pullback followed by another press higher.
Russell-2000 (RUT) chart, Daily
The RUT's bounce pattern off the August 16th low is similar but weaker than the others. One look at the sideways chop since the early August low is very telling--a sharp drop followed by consolidation means you should be looking for another leg down and that's what I'm showing. The downside projection for this one should be to about 650, potentially lower, by mid-October.
Russell-2000 (RUT) chart, 60-min
The RUT shows a very clean 5-wave move down from September 4th and that's impulsive. Then the overlapping highs and lows in the bounce says it's corrective. Put the two together and it calls for another leg down. It should drop relatively quickly below 760 from here.
In the above indices I show an "orderly" decline from our present position. While the selling will be intense at times, bordering on panic selling similar to what we saw at times in the July-Aug selling, it's not saying we're going to get a crash. Planning for a crash is always a low-odds probability play (since a market crash happens maybe once every 10 or 20 years). But, and this is a big but, if we're going to have a market crash, we're in the window for it now. I had mentioned in past Wraps that we're in a very vulnerable period for the stock market right now. Between the seasonal (Sept/Oct) and decennial (2007) patterns this is the time for a crash if one is due. With that, here's the analog between 1987 and 2007:
DOW in 1987 vs. 2007, Daily
Following analogs (comparisons of chart patterns from different periods) is something that can be very helpful since it's amazing how often patterns repeat. As you can see by the above chart pattern we've been following the 1987 pattern remarkably closely. We're currently peering over the edge looking at 10K directly below. For heaven's sake don't be on margin right now. Once we get through October, assuming we haven't crashed, then the analog comparison will have been broken and we'll be out of the vulnerable window. Until then, just stay on your guard for this possibility.
BIX banking index, Daily chart
The banks are chopping their way lower from the August high and this is either bullish (needing another leg up to at least the 200-dma near 392) or else it's very bearish with multiple 3rd waves to the downside setting up. If the steeper downtrend line, currently near 363, is broken to the upside, and especially if it pushes back above its last bounce high near 371, then the bearish pattern is in jeopardy and I'd start to think a little more short term bullish. And if that happens I would definitely be thinking more short term bullish the broader market. So keep an eye on this index (same with the Trannies as I'll explain with its chart).
U.S. Home Construction Index chart, DJUSHB, Daily
There just hasn't been that much good news for the home builders to grab onto. The bullish divergences are hinting of a loss in momentum in the selling so a bounce should be around the corner. But the larger pattern suggests this index will work its way down towards the 200 area where it was in 2001.
Oil chart, December contract (CL07Z), Weekly
The front month contract is October and it popped over $80 today and made the headlines (and high oil prices can't be good for both inflation or the economy and therefore not for the stock market either). The weekly chart of the December contract here shows an ascending wedge pattern that has been developing since the January 2007 low. Whether it is wave-(b) as I've labeled it or instead a final 5th wave in its longer term bullish pattern it doesn't make any difference. It's an ending pattern and this says the next major move for oil will be a swift decline below $54 and likely below $40.
The monthly chart shows the bearish divergence at this retest of its prior high:
Oil chart, December contract (CL07Z), Monthly
It's striking how much bearish divergence oil has been showing for such a long time. And now with price about to test its previous high back in June 2006 you can see how divergent the oscillators will be. Once it becomes clearer that the global economy (including China) is slowing down I suspect we'll see that recognition in the price of oil.
Oil Index chart, Daily
The oil stocks are in a similar pattern as the broader market except that the July-Aug decline looks more impulsive. The bounce counts best as with a corrective wave count and therefore the decline should resume once the bounce is finished. Today might have finished the bounce although I see a decent possibility for this index to make it back up to the top of its parallel up-channel near 785.
Transportation Index chart, TRAN, Daily
I had mentioned that it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the banks to see if they break their bearish price pattern. Of all the indices I review the Trannies give me the most bullish impression for an upcoming bounce. The internal price pattern looks like it needs another leg up to perhaps test its broken uptrend line from September 2006, currently near 5090.
And if the Trannies are rallying I don't think we'll be seeing selling in the broader averages. I've seen before where the Trannies gave us a heads up for a rally in the broader averages so this bears close scrutiny. Watch the downtrend line from July, currently near 4840, since that shouldn't be broken if we're into a more bearish wave pattern. We could see the Trannies bounce up to that downtrend line before selling resumes but it shouldn't break it.
U.S. Dollar chart, Daily
Since the November 2005 high in the US dollar rally it's been downhill ever since. The challenge has been trying to determine where the low is going to be and it just keeps making new lows. The bearish sentiment on the dollar is thick enough to cut with a knife (which is bullish from a contrarian standpoint). The wave structure counts out well for a large A-B-C move down and this week the dollar has broken beneath the trend line along the lows since December 2006, which defines the bottom of a potential descending wedge for wave-C, the move down from October 2006. If this is a throw-under to finish the wave count then we should see it turn right back up and get inside the wedge pattern (for a buy signal).
If we're to get equality between waves A and C in the move down from November 2005 then we won't see a bottom in the dollar until 78.25 so about another dollar to go. But the long term bullish divergence continues and this fits the wave pattern so we could see the dollar make a low at any time now.
I received a great question on gold from Peter this week, who asked, "With December Gold closing today at 721.10, above the key 717 level, what's your current thinking/projections for this market?" I answered his question on the Market Monitor with the following:
Gold has surprised me how much it has rallied and it has forced me to change the EW count based on it exceeding 688 never mind 717. But I believe this is the last hurrah for gold as it should join the selling once equities start to sell off hard again. The lack of participation by silver (relatively speaking) is a big bearish statement for the gold rally. It should turn into a bull trap for gold bulls.
This weekly chart shows a new EW count and satisfies the one gnawing question that's been on my mind since the high in February. Price action has been whippy and corrective looking. I should have taken that as more of a clue that price action since February has been part of a larger corrective pattern and that's what I show on the weekly chart:
Gold chart, December contract (GC07Z), Weekly
The triangle consolidation pattern following the 3-wave rally into February 2007 was an indication that there was to be one more leg up to finish a larger A-B-C correction to the 2006 decline. Triangle patterns precede the last leg of the move prior to a reversal and that means the current leg up is finishing the larger correction and Not the start of something more bullish. This is very important to understand. The 3-wave rally into February 2007 already gave us a heads up that it was a correction to the 2006 decline and now the current leg up is finishing the larger correction.
So it's time to identify potential upside targets and gold is getting very close to its first target at 725.67 which is where wave-C = 62% of wave-A (common with commodities). The short term pattern in gold makes it look like it needs at least another small push higher. Tuesday's high was 723.90 so another push higher should tag that Fib level. The shorter term charts are showing bearish divergences at the new highs so the new high is somewhat questionable right now but would make for a good shorting opportunity.
There's another much higher target at 771.40 but I'm thinking it's too far. That's subjective based on my belief gold will sell off with equities and equities are close to selling off. So based on this, get ready to short gold.
Results of today's economic reports and tomorrow's reports include the following:
There are no big economic reports tomorrow so the market is on its own to duke it out between the bulls and the bears.
SPX chart, Weekly
I changed the wave count on the weekly chart to reflect the count I'm carrying on the daily chart above. I'm projecting a swift decline to the 1200-1250 area by October as it should be a "wave of recognition" where market participants realize not all is well with credit availability.
Several reports, mainly out of the London banks and media (who seem to be more honest, or maybe realistic, in their reporting) and the indications are that there's a lot of commercial paper (short term loans that are typically backed by collateralized assets, including mortgages) coming due in the next couple of weeks and if they can't find buyers for it (which so far they're struggling to get) then banks will be forced to buy it themselves. Thats a big reason why the banks have been hoarding the extra cash the central banks have been doling out--they're not lending it out as the central banks had hoped but instead hoarding it in the event they're forced to buy back their commercial paper. This will put a severe dent in the available credit for other purposes and the bell for round two will be rung for the market to get in there and slug it out. It won't be pretty.
One other note I forgot to mention on the 60-min charts for the various indices--check out the H&S patterns that are developing (we're into the right shoulder). The necklines are the September 10th lows so if they break it should usher in some strong selling.
If all this bearish talk depresses you then you're a unidirectional trader and you're denying yourself the ability to be a better trader, one who can comfortably trade both directions. I've been focusing on the bearish trades for quite some time because I think the surprises will be to the downside and I'm hoping to help you position yourself for a juicy short trade. If you haven't played with the short side much, now's a great time to try. Buy just a couple of index puts, risking no more than you would with any other kind of trade, and see how it works.
I don't recommend any credit spreads in this market because of the volatility. If you manage to catch the market right and sell bear call spreads near the top of a big bounce and bull put spreads near the bottom of a big decline then you should do well. But catching those tops and bottoms puts you in the same seat as a directional trader and if you're wrong then the amount of credit is dwarfed by the amount of risk. There will be better times for those plays, like after October. Either sit back and relax for a bit and paper trade something new, or try the short side for the JIC trade (Just in Case).
Good luck over the next week. Beware triple witching opex week with a sprinkle
of FOMC thrown in for good measure. The market will be on pins and needles come
Tuesday and we could start to see a very whippy market. Trade light and trade
carefully, taking profits on winning trades often. I'll be back here next
Thursday as Linda will take my Wednesday. See you on the Market Monitor
Triumph Group - TGI - cls: 75.21 change: +0.55 stop: 72.45
Why We Like It:
BUY CALL OCT 75.00 TGI-JO open interest=120 current ask $4.10
Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
U.S.Steel - X - close: 89.26 change: -2.63 stop: 96.51
Why We Like It:
BUY PUT OCT 90.00 X-VR open interest=5961 current ask $5.70
Picked on September 12 at $ 89.26
Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 35.37 change: -0.09 stop: 33.95
Watch out! Our new play in BRCM is now open but some legal news might make our timing dangerous. Shares of BRCM rallied midday and hit $36.03. Our suggested entry point to buy calls was at $35.85 so the play is now open. Unfortunately, BRCM was unable to hold any of its gains and the stock closed in the red with what looks like a failed rally at $36.00. The very short-term technical indicators are suggesting more weakness ahead. On top of this disappointing performance there was an announcement after the closing bell. BRCM and QCOM have been in a patent dispute and months ago the courts announced a ban on importing QCOM phones into the U.S., which was a legal win for BRCM. That has changed. Tonight a federal judge has temporarily reversed or stayed the import ban on Qualcomm phones into the U.S. This sounds bearish for BRCM but the stock was actually edging higher in after hours trading. The combination of the failed rally and the legal news makes us cautious on BRCM. At this time we'd expect a dip toward the 10-dma or lower. Wait and watch for a bounce or a new rally past $36 before considering new positions. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49 target.
Picked on September 12 at $ 35.85
Intl. Bus. Mach.- IBM - cls: 116.00 chg: -1.35 stop: 113.24*new*
A lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce for IBM is not a good sign. The technical picture is starting to decay. IBM looks poised to retest short-term support near $115. We are adjusting our stop loss to $113.24. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock has already hit our $118-120 target range. Our second, more-aggressive target is the $124.00-125.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure is very bullish with a $177 target.
Picked on August 26 at $113.24
Manitowoc - MTW - cls: 39.12 change: -1.36 stop: 37.48
Ouch! MTW is showing a lot of volatility these days. The stock was up big yesterday but today the stock lost 3.3%. Furthermore today's session has produced a bearish reversal in the form of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit or raise their stop loss toward $38.00. Our post-split target is the $44.00-45.00 range. Our post-split stop loss is $37.48.
Picked on September 05 at $ 40.13 *split adjusted
Transocean - RIG - cls: 106.69 change: -0.26 stop: 104.85
Hmm... it was not a good day for RIG. Overall the stock didn't move much. However, this morning the stock was upgraded. Plus, crude oil rose to new highs after the surprising inventory report this morning. Yet shares of RIG couldn't build on either. Readers can watch for another bounce near $105 as a potential entry point for bullish positions but RIG is facing short-term resistance in the $109-110 range. Our target is the $114.00-115.00 range.
Picked on August 31 at $105.75
Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 58.94 change: +0.38 stop: 61.01
We don't see any changes from our previous comments on ASH. The stock is still trying to bounce but remains under resitsance in the $60-61 zone. The technical indicators are mixed. We would keep an eye open for a failed rally under $60.00 as a new entry point for bearish plays. We have two targets. Our first target is the $55.15-55.00 range. Our second target is the $52.65-52.50 range.
Picked on September 09 at $ 58.84
Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 49.78 change: +0.12 stop: 53.55*new*
AYI may have posted a gain but the action looks bearish. The intraday chart shows two rally attempts that failed under $50.50. The stock currently looks poised to move lower. We are adjusting our stop loss to $53.55. We have two targets. Our first target is the $47.75-47.50 range. Our second target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.
Picked on August 26 at $ 52.80
L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 97.74 change: -0.91 stop: 98.55
We don't see any changes from our previous comments on LLL. The stock is still under performing the defense sector and the tech sector. Currently we're waiting for a breakdown under $96.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $95.90. If triggered at $95.90 our target is the $90.75-90.00 range but we may need to adjust that as the 200-dma continues to rise.
Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Whirlpool - WHR - cls: 90.24 change; -0.16 stop: 95.15 *new*
WHR tried to bounce from the $90 level again but the rally faded under $91.50. The stock is inching closer and closer to a breakdown under the $90 level. We are adjusting our stop loss to $95.15. We have two targets. Our first target is the 87.75-87.50 range. Our second target is the $85.00-84.00 range.
Picked on September 09 at $ 92.77
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 110.05 chg: +2.41 stop: n/a
We do not see any changes from our Tuesday comments on BSC. The company is now expected to release earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, September 20th. That doesn't give us much time to play September options, which expire after September 21st. We're suggesting the October strikes instead. If BSC dips into the $106.50-103.50 range we would suggest the following: buy the October $115 call (BSC-JC) currently at $5.70 and the October $95 put (BVD-VS) currently at $3.80. Bear in mind that we have over a week and it might pay off to just wait and see where BSC is trading around September 18 or 19th before opening positions, plus we can avoid about a week's worth of time premium erosion. Depending on where BSC is trading next week we may need to use different strikes. This should be considered a more aggressive play.
Picked on September 09 at $105.37
Diamonds - DIA - cls: 133.25 chg: +0.17 stop: n/a
Odds are growing that the markets will just churn sideways as investors await next Tuesday's fed meeting. We are not suggesting new positions in the DIA at this time. Our strangle play suggested using the September $137 call (DAZ-IG) and the September $127 put (DAW-UW) with an estimated cost of $2.05. We want to sell if either option rises to $3.10 or more. We have less than two weeks left before September options expire.
Picked on August 30 at $132.57
S&P 100 Index - OEX - cls: 688.42 chg: +0.77 stop: n/a
We're not suggesting new positions in the OEX at this time. Our strangle strategy suggested using the September 700 call (OEZ-IT) and the September 660 put (OEY-UL) with an estimated cost of $14.30. We want to sell if either option rises to $21.45 or more. Considering these prices we probably need to see a move into the $705-710 range or the $655-650 zone to be profitable.
Picked on August 30 at $680.46
Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 87.31 change: +1.02 stop: 79.99
Target achieved. AMZN continues to show relative strength. The stock hit an intraday high of $88.89 before paring its gains. Our target was the $88.00-89.00 range. The stock appears to have resistance in the $89-90 zone and shares look ready for a rest. We'd keep an eye on it for a new bullish entry point down the road.
Picked on September 04 at $ 80.85
When a stock or index has a move on the opening such that either: 1.) that day's low ends up being higher than the previous day's high or 2.) the day's high ends up being lower than the previous day's low, this pattern is called a (chart) "gap"; a gap UP in the case of example 1 and a gap DOWN in the case of example 2. As an aid in trading strategy or as an entry 'signal', from the standpoint of making a trade, how reliably will an upside or downside gap lead to a further move in the same direction as the gap.
This question is not completely simple, but there are some guidelines to 'gap' behavior. A gap is simply an sharp imbalance in buy versus sell orders when some new condition or news comes out. For example, bullish news that comes out after the close or before the opening means that the index or stock has to be 'marked up' to get sellers into the other side of the trade. Conversely, bearish overnight news means that the stock or index has to be 'marked down' in order to get buyers coming in. Bullish or bearish news has to be overnight to create daily chart gaps, but intraday news (e.g., Fed action, etc.) can create chart gaps on intraday charts as a stock or an index falls or jumps sharply from the prior intraday period; e.g., on a 5, 15, 30 or 60-minute chart. Mostly, with chart gaps, we are looking at sharp moves occur on the opening and where prices keep going to the upside or downside after that.
SOME BACKGROUND; HOW GAPS ARE CREATED OR NOT CREATED
1. The S&P indexes versus the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq always opens straight away at a price; there is no 'floor' specialist that is charged with keeping an 'orderly' market and looking for bids or offers in order to open a stock past the opening time because it can be done with less extreme imbalances in buying/selling. Therefore there will be instances seen on the DAILY charts where the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) or Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 'gaps' up or down on the day.
2. Three KINDS of gaps
BREAKAWAY: Upside chart gaps that are made after, or soon after, a prolonged decline and downside gaps that are made after, or soon after, a prolonged advance. Such gaps are typically called 'breakaway' gaps as the trend breaks in a new direction.
RUNAWAY: Chart gaps that form after a move has been underway for a while. These are also called 'measuring' gaps as they often occur in the approximate middle of a move. Runaway gaps are more common in the commodities markets and are seen rarely in the major stock indexes and not often in stocks.
EXHAUSTION: Chart gaps that occur after a price move has been underway for some time and which marks the 'last gasp' so to speak, of the bulls or the last gasps of the bears. Typically these type order imbalances occur when a final bunch of new buyers or sellers gets into a stock or into the market. So-called exhaustion gaps are near or getting near to a tradable top or a tradable bottom; i.e., to near an upside or downside (trend) reversal.
In stocks and stock indexes, breakaway gaps are not as common as occur in the commodities markets versus breakaway or exhaustion type gaps or gaps near the beginning or end of a move. Nevertheless the first chart I'll show has 3 examples of measuring (runaway) type gaps in the OEX, but and these are seen on the hourly chart.
3. Gaps tell two different stories
My next chart, that of the daily Nas 100 (NDX) shows all three of the different type chart gaps; i.e., breakaway (trend 'reversal' type), runaway and exhaustion. The exhaustion gap seen at the July NDX top wasn't more than a 1-point gap, but it was telling nevertheless. The last gap highlighted on the chart below that formed between Thursday and Friday (of last week), initially looked like a breakaway gap suggesting a possible downside reversal. The subsequent rally suggests this is not the case, but I wonder.
On a closing basis, to date anyway, NDX hasn't made much headway above price resistance implied by this gap. The gap was 'filled in' (by subsequent price action), but a renewed up leg can't be assumed just yet. Stay tuned on that!
For really seeing where the chart gaps are, we can compare the daily NDX chart
above with that of the Hourly (NDX) chart below. There was some follow through
after each gap. The biggest moves tend to AFTER an initial gap in a new price
direction. Gaps seen after extremes in the overbought/oversold indicators like
the RSI can be followed by the biggest price swings. The downside gap seen
around 8/24 was quickly followed by an upside gap as the dominant (up) trend
this was followed later by yet another upside gap on the way
to the recent top.
SOME STOCK CHART EXAMPLES:
What I'm struck by with these next charts (bellwether stocks Intel & GE) is that there was a significant further move in the direction of the gap (either up or down) after each gap event. Moreover, the gap areas have generally marked an area where significant buying or selling has showed up later. Maybe not immediately and at the exact point where the gap was 'filled in', but the gaps were areas of significance. This is not surprising, since the gaps marked sort of 'sea changes' in the trend where heavy buying overwhelmed selling or vice versa.
With GE as highlighted below, the initial upside gap turned out to be very significant and a good 'signal' to get into calls. The second gap was showing still-significant strength. The 3rd gap (a downside gap) was followed by a significant further sell off. These gaps didn't highlight subsequent future areas of support or resistance overly much, except that the sharp mid-August sell off did hold above support implied by the area of the late-April upside (breakaway) gap.
Sometimes gaps play the role of highlighting future support or resistance, sometimes not. But often there is upside or downside follow through to certain chart gaps, which is the key trading usefulness I find in gap events.
STOCK PRICE GAPS STUDY
A study done by Larry Connors and Ashton Dorkins (recently cited in "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities") involved substantial quantitative research on chart gaps in individual equities and drew on a lot of data: they examined several million instances between 1995 to 2006 when chart gaps appeared from one day to the next in stocks trading above $5 and with a 100-day average of daily trading volume greater than 250,000 shares.
Connors and Dorkins actually found that the strongest SHORT-TERM edge occurred by doing the opposite of what most traders tend to do, which is to buy on upside gaps. To qualify for this study, gap ups had to be at least 2.5%, but ranged up to 25% higher than the previous day's high.
The average returns of stocks that 'gap up' were negative 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. The fact that subsequent price action after gap events tending to settle back to pre-gap levels is the reason for the old trader's adage that gaps get 'filled in'. The aforementioned research on this subject with equities suggests being selective in buying after a gap up event or not buying at all. I look especially as WHERE a gap appears; that is, does the gap up appear to be the start of a new trend, possibly mid-way in that trend or near the end of a prolonged trend.
Continuing with the study, it was found that the average returns of stocks that 'gap down' were positive. The positive results were even more pronounced when looking at stocks that gapped down by 10% or more. The conclusion of the study's authors was to build trading strategies more around stocks that gap down by 10% or more.
The average 1-week return of stocks after gapping up by 10% or more was a minus 1.14%. The average 1-week return of stocks that gapped down by 10% or more was +2.01%. Interesting!!
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GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Keene H. Little, Trader's Corner by
Leigh Stevens, and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
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