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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/13/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Oversold Bounce Or New Rally?

You can only stretch that rubber band so far before it snaps back with lightning speed. The markets moved into seriously oversold territory on Friday and then failed to stretch their losses significantly further on Monday. While some individual issues continued to be sold the indexes failed to reflect that pessimism. With the lack of any materially bearish news on Tuesday and partial rebound in Asia investors bought the open and a new short squeeze was born. Nobody should have been surprised that an oversold relief rally would appear only when and how big. The real mystery is how long will it last?

Dow Chart - Daily

Nasdaq Chart - Daily

There were no material economics today. The weekly chain store sales fell -0.5% after gaining +1.0% last week but the year over year growth rose to 2.7%. Retailers said colder weather was starting to stimulate fall apparel purchases. The Treasury Budget came in at -$55.6 billion and just slightly under consensus of -$56.9 billion. Pending Home sales for September, definitely a lagging indicator, rose for the first time since June at +0.2% and only the second monthly gain this year. Pending sales declined -16.5% over the prior two months and an annual rate of -42% for the entire third quarter. That helped market sentiment somewhat but it was mostly under reported. It was obviously a boring day economically.

Wednesday we will get the first inflation sensitive report for the week with the Producer Price Index or PPI along with Retail Sales for October and Business Inventories for September. The only report that really matters is the PPI. The consensus is for a rise of +0.3% in the producer index. The Consumer Price Index or CPI is out on Thursday and the consensus there is for a rise of +0.3% as well.

The main market mover for Tuesday was a Merrill Lynch banking conference attended by the movers and shakers in the banking world. Sound bites from that conference took the pressure off the financial sector and produced nearly a +5% rebound in the financial sector indexes. The Bank America (BAC +2.29) CEO was quoted as saying "losses were manageable." That was after BAC announced a $3 billion write-down for Q4 and warned its losses could grow. Evidently investors were satisfied and bought BAC stock. The JP Morgan (JPM +2.66) CEO said, "We are fine" when referring to their exposure to CDOs and subprime loans. JPM wrote down $2.45B in Q3. The biggest market boost came from Goldman Sachs (GS +18.33) when the CEO said they would "not be making any significant write downs." GS wrote down $2.4B in Q3. There was a collective sigh of relief from the markets given the recent history of daily confessions of worsening conditions. The financials were heavily shorted and their rebound helped power the indexes higher. E*Trade (ETFC) pulled out of the conference late today and there is speculation they could be in play. The CEO was scheduled to speak on Wednesday afternoon. Several analysts said they could be facing bankruptcy after they announced they were writing down billions in mortgages last week. Analysts are speculating tonight that Ameritrade (AMTD) could be ready to make a move while ETFC is weak and vulnerable.

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Also helping market sentiment was earnings from Wal-Mart. WMT posted earnings that rose +8% on only a +1.5% increase in sales. Their 70-cent earnings beat the street by 3 cents. Given all the anguish and hang wringing over shrinking consumer spending the Wal-Mart earnings were another breath of fresh air. The earnings were produced from the right mix of consumer products according to Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart has had trouble finding that mix with numerous forays into higher priced and lower priced ventures. If they have now found the ideal mix analysts think they could actually have a better than expected holiday season. WMT rose +2.65 (6.1%) on the news. This propelled the S&P Retail Index (RLX.x) to a +3.84% gain. Traders were relieved that Wal-Mart did not warn or lower guidance again. This was seen as a positive development for the blue-collar consumer. Analysts were quick to point out that this was a Wal-Mart specific event and not something we should generally expect to see in other retailers.

Home Depot (HD) reported earnings that fell -27% for Q3 and predicted earnings would fall -11% for all of 2007. They had previously predicted a 7-9% drop. The CEO said the market and industry "continued to face into significant headwinds. We started the year with a more pessimistic view of the housing and home improvement markets than many. It turns out we were not pessimistic enough." The CFO said HD was seeing real weakness in demand in Florida, California and in the northeast. HD shares rose slightly on their comments that they were going to continue the $22 billion recapitalization program. They have already purchased $10.7 billion in stock with another $11 billion to go. They are using the funds from the sale of their Builder Supply business to fund the buyback. With their share price at $29 and a level not seen since May-2003 it would seem like now was a good time to be buying back stock instead of waiting for it to go back to $35-$40.

Google (GOOG +28) got some bad news today regarding their purchase of DoubleClick. The European Union antitrust regulators launched an in-depth probe Tuesday into the $3.1 billion purchase. They said an initial investigation showed the deal would raise competition concerns. The commission set an April 2nd deadline to rule on the deal. Microsoft and Yahoo have both claimed the deal would give Google too much power in the online advertising space. Google claims they must be allowed to complete the deal to give them an equal footing to compete with Microsoft. Yahoo, Microsoft and AOL have also made acquisitions in the space to help them compete with Google.

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) shareholders approved the acquisition of XM Satellite (XMSR) today. SIRI said 96% voted in favor of the merger while 99.8% of the XMSR shareholders voted in favor. The biggest hurdle still has to be overcome. That would be the approval by the Justice Department and the FCC on antitrust grounds. The FCC originally voted against allowing the merger but that ruling can be overturned. Since there are only two satellite radio companies that poses a problem for the regulatory agencies. There is nobody for them to be anticompetitive against. Consumer groups have been the most vocal here saying the combination would be unfair to the consumer and allow the merged entity to charge more for their services since there was no other option. Lawyers are now claiming the companies should be able to merge to compete with the rising number of iPods, cell phones and Internet radio stations available to consumers.

Countrywide (CFC) said it was only able to fund $22 billion in mortgages in October. That was up +4% from September but down -48% from Oct-2006 levels. They funded $42 million in subprime loans compared to $3.3 billion in Oct-2006. Adjustable rate loans fell nearly 80% to $3.1 billion from $16.25 billion in Oct 2006. Countrywide had $41 billion in mortgages waiting to be funded on Oct-31st. Countrywide said 5.89% of its portfolio was delinquent compared to 4.43% in Oct-2006. Loans pending foreclosure were up to 0.86% from 0.56% and not as bad as some were predicting.

Oil prices fell to $90.13 intraday (-4.49) before short covering appeared that pushed it higher to close at $91.35 for a drop of -3.27 for the day. That is still a major drop considering the historic high of $98.62 hit last week. Reportedly the reason for the drop was a cut in forecasted demand by the IEA for Q4 and 2008. The IEA cut demand growth for Q4 by 570,000 bpd due to the high price of gasoline. Reportedly they are seeing a significant amount of demand destruction due to higher prices. This means Joe Bob and Sally Mae are cutting down on their trips to Wal-Mart, Dairy Queen or visits to Aunt Sue because they can't afford them on $3+ gasoline. Even with that drop in demand estimates they are still calling for average demand to be 87.14 mbpd in Q4. For all of 2008 they are expecting demand to rise to 87.69 mbpd. That is still an increase over 2007 but 300,000 bpd below their prior estimates. They change these estimates every month so I doubt this is cast in stone. I believe it was also due to the strong statement out of OPEC that they will NOT vote on hiking production at this weekend's meeting. They continue to claim that there is plenty of oil in the market and the price swings have been created by speculators rather than demand. Their firm commitment that they would not even consider a cut even with prices near $100 supposedly convinced those long oil to run for the exits. Maybe it is just me but it seems to me that a firm "no more production" comment would be bullish for prices not bearish. I think the reason crude collapsed was due to three things. First was the lack of any new geopolitical concerns ahead of options expiration today. If you owned calls this week you had to close those positions today and that put downward pressure on crude. Secondly, crude futures expire on Friday and the same pressure created from options expiration is also being exerted on crude futures themselves. Thirdly the oil market was seriously overbought and the continued OPEC insistence that there was plenty of oil in the market finally weighed on those still long ahead of expiration. Despite the -$4 intraday drop in oil most energy stocks rebounded with strong gains.

December Crude Futures Chart - 60 min

Today was definitely powered by short covering and after three days of heavy selling you would not expect anything different. I am sure there was also a little help from the market makers with equity options expiring this week. After the sharp drop in equities they would do anything to bring the indexes back into parity and a point where the most options expire worthless. They have their work cut out for them but today's gains were a step in the right direction.

There were plenty of analysts claiming it was a textbook bull trap. That is a snapback rebound in a down market where severely oversold conditions set the market up for a short squeeze. Bulls, thinking the selling is over buy the bounce and then get trapped when the selling begins again over the next several days.

One firm was adamant that selling would return by the end of the week. The firm was basing their call on the Nov-15th date for year-end hedge fund redemptions. Hedge fund investors must give 45-days notice of their intent to withdraw funds. This notice period comes once per quarter and the Q3 notice date on August 15th came one day before the August lows. Since the notices are received for several days before the actual cutoff it was credited with a lot of the August selling. The firm making the call this quarter claims there are a lot of investors who may want to withdraw capital as the year draws to a close and Nov-15th is their last notice day for year end withdrawals. The analyst was calling for a possible retracement to the August lows before the week is out.

Despite the strong gains today the volume was not very strong. It was weighted heavily (10:1) in favor of advancers but the combined volume was the lightest of the last five days. Down on heavy volume and up on light volume? That is not a bullish sign. It smells a lot more like just a short squeeze with very little conviction. That makes Wednesday conviction day. If the bulls can manage another positive close then we have a chance of the rally growing legs.

The amount of the rebound was amazing. It was the second largest point gain for the Dow ever seen. Check the percentages on the market graphic at the top of the page. The Nasdaq-100 or NDX was the most oversold at -12% and today's rally saw a +3.9% single day rebound. That is very strong but today's +84 point rebound was only 30% of the -275 points lost over the prior four days. There is a long way to go before the damage has been corrected.

I sent out an alert to the LEAPS subscribers last night suggesting we were near the bottom and recommending some new buys. Today I find the predominant feeling in the market to be sell the bounce. Obviously there are a lot of conflicting opinions and that is good. It is what makes a market. We need a strong short interest to power the markets higher. If everybody were long there would be nobody left to buy. We need those shorts to be forced to cover by a growing number of longs.

The Dow gained +320 points the day after closing below strong support at 13000. That was a great sprint higher powered by IBM +3.91, AXP +3.07, WMT +2.68, JPM +2.66, AIG +2.43, C +2.33 and XOM +2.21. There was only one Dow loser. Note that Exxon was up +2.21 when oil was down -$4 intraday and -3.27 at the close. The Dow rebound was so big that it would take a lot of sellers to push it back below 13000 again. It is always possible but I am betting against it tonight.

The Nasdaq rebounded +89 points from yesterday's test of the 200-day average to close at 2671. It was a textbook rebound from support but one day does not make a rally. The Nasdaq-100 also gained +84 points and those same big caps that were crushed over the prior three days were responsible for the majority of the rebound. This is a textbook short squeeze script. The most heavily shorted produce the strongest rebound. The key will obviously be the conviction shown by the tech bulls as the week progresses.

Nasdaq-100 Chart - Daily

S&P-500 Chart - Daily

The S&P-500 added +42 points to close at 1480 and that just happens to be initial resistance with the 200-day at 1483. S&P 1490 has been alternating resistance and support since May that level looms large in any continued rebound. These clearly defined resistance levels make the S&P the key for the rest of the week. If we do move over 1490 then the bulls are back in charge and it is time to saddle up for a year-end rally.

The Russell managed a +2.87% rebound of +22 points. Remember, the heaviest shorted rebounds the strongest. The Russell moved well over initial resistance at 780 but there is an even stronger resistance band from 790-800 that could slow any continued advance.

I could go on with the NYSE Composite, Wilshire-5000, Dow Transports, etc, but you get the idea. This was a textbook short squeeze BUT it could also be the beginning of a longer-term rebound. The rest of the week is likely to be marked by volatility as the buyers and sellers jockey for position in an option expiration week. I am not going to try and predict short-term direction but I do think the bottom is behind us. I think Dow 13000 is the level the bulls will defend and I think we will see them buying any future dip. Whether they will chase prices higher remains to be seen.
 


New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
ESRX None None
GILD    
XOM    

Play Editor's Note: Everyone was expecting an oversold bounce early this week. The question is whether or not there will be any follow through. A lot of the market pundits are suggesting that investors sell into strength and/or look for the bounce to fail and use it as a shorting opportunity. That is definitely a real possibility and we remain very skeptical of the rebound. However, we have found a couple of relatively lower-risk bullish candidates for you to consider. We are calling them "low-risk" because they're bouncing from support after a significant correction and we can play with a relatively tight stop loss.


New Calls

Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 64.67 chg: +1.29 stop: 61.14

Company Description:
Express Scripts, Inc. is one of the largest PBM companies in North America, providing PBM services to over 50 million members. Express Scripts serves thousands of client groups, including managed-care organizations, insurance carriers, employers, third-party administrators, public sector, and union-sponsored benefit plans. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We like ESRX because shares have been displaying some relative strength. The recent pull back was orderly and not like the violent sell-offs we have seen so much lately in the market. Traders have continued to buy the dips and the stock now looks poised to begin another leg higher. We're suggesting a stop loss under Monday's low. While we're opening the play here more conservative traders might want to wait for a rise past $65.00 or $66.00 (both potential resistance) before opening call positions. The P&F chart is bullish with a $97 target. Our short-term target is the $69.50-70.00 range. FYI: ESRX is also on the newsletter as a current strangle play.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the December or January calls. It is up to the individual trader to decide which month and which strike price best suits your trading style and risk.

BUY CALL DEC 65.00 XTQ-LM open interest=12287 current ask $2.40
BUY CALL DEC 70.00 XTQ-LN open interest= 1121 current ask $0.75

BUY CALL JAN 65.00 XTQ-AM open interest=3107 current ask $3.70
BUY CALL JAN 70.00 XTQ-AN open interest=1348 current ask $1.65

Picked on November 13 at $ 64.67
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 43.11 change: +0.55 stop: 41.74

Company Description:
Gilead Sciences is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes innovative therapeutics in areas of unmet medical need. The company's mission is to advance the care of patients suffering from life-threatening diseases worldwide. Headquartered in Foster City, California, Gilead has operations in North America, Europe and Australia. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
GILD has a long-term bullish trend but it looks like the stock got ahead of itself in late October and early November. Now the recent market correction has pulled GILD back toward support near $42.00. Traders bought the dip near $42 and its 50-dma. This looks like a relatively lower-risk entry point. We're suggesting a stop just under today's low. Our target is the $47.00-48.00 range. There might be some resistance near $44.00 and its 10-dma near $45.00.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the December or January calls. It is up to the individual trader to decide which month and which strike price best suits your trading style and risk. The $42.50 and $47.50 strikes would also work.

BUY CALL DEC 45.00 GDQ-LI open interest=1960 current ask $1.00

BUY CALL JAN 45.00 GDQ-AI open interest=9121 current ask $1.70

Picked on November 13 at $ 43.11
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 86.75 chg: +2.21 stop: 82.99

Company Description:
We are the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas company, providing energy that helps underpin growing economies and improve living standards around the world. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Crude oil has seen a sharp correction recently and the oil stocks fell in tandem. Yet now it looks like traders are buying the dip. If you look at XOM's daily chart investors have been consistently buying the dip to its rising 200-dma for months. They did it again today. Not only was today a bounce from the 200-dma but a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. There is short-term resistance near the 10-dma and 100-dma and XOM will probably see some resistance near $90.00 as well. However, our target is the $92.50-95.00 range. More conservative traders may want to lock in some gains near $90.00.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the December or January calls. It is up to the individual trader to decide which month and which strike price best suits your trading style and risk.

BUY CALL DEC 85.00 XOM-LQ open interest=1652 current ask $4.80
BUY CALL DEC 90.00 XOM-LR open interest=5370 current ask $2.20

BUY CALL JAN 85.00 XOM-AQ open interest=38243 current ask $6.00
BUY CALL JAN 90.00 XOM-AR open interest=46390 current ask $3.40

Picked on November 13 at $ 86.75
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 24.2 million
 

New Puts

None today.
 

New Strangles

None today.
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

Goodrich Corp. - GR - close: 71.93 change: +2.19 stop: 66.90

GR spent most of the day churning sideways in the $70.00-70.50 zone but eventually the rally took hold and shares added 3.1% by the closing bell. This rebound from a test of support near $70.00 looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. However, bear in mind that the major market indices are in short-term bearish trends. Our conservative target is the $74.90-75.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $78.00-80.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $99 target.

Picked on November 05 at $ 71.05
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Icon Pub. Ltd. - ICLR - close: 56.06 chg: -2.60 stop: 55.90

Danger, danger, Will Robinson! If we had the friendly robot from Lost in Space to help he would be crying out in alarm. ICLR lost 4.4% on no news today. Furthermore today's decline is a HUGE show of weakness in the face of today's widespread market rally. Shares managed to hold at support near $56.00 but this doesn't bode well for tomorrow. Today's decline makes the recent trading look like a bearish double-top pattern on the daily chart. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $63.50-65.00 range. We would consider this a higher-risk play for the simple reason that volume is so low on both the stock and the options.

Picked on November 06 at $ 58.79
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 10/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 107 thousand

---

L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 113.05 chg: +2.72 stop: 107.99

It's a similar story here. LLL bounced around what should have been support near $110 (the low today was 109.50) until the market-wide rally finally infected shares of LLL, which shot up to a 2.4% gain. The rebound today looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. However, we remain very wary of the strength in the broader market. Readers might want to adjust their stops toward today's low. LLL has already hit our first target in the $114-115 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $118.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $133 to $139.

Picked on October 29 at $108.10
Change since picked: + 4.95
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

---

Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 118.15 chg: +5.09 stop: 107.45

LVS displayed some relative strength. Instead of rolling over the stock gapped open higher at $115 and rallied almost all day. Shares broke through the 10-dma and closed with a 4.5% gain. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops! LVS has already hit our initial target near $117. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $121.00-122.50 zone.

Picked on November 08 at $111.60
Change since picked: + 6.55
Earnings Date 11/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

---

Northrop Gruman - NOC - cls: 83.76 chg: +2.01 stop: 79.99

Bulls bought the dip in NOC and the stock rallied past its 10-dma and did so on strong volume. The rebound today looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart shows a bullish catapult pattern with a $92 target.

Picked on November 06 at $ 84.48
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Dryships - DRYS - cls: 98.23 change: +14.42 stop: 100.75 *new*

Umm... did we happen to mention that DRYS was a volatile stock? Yesterday the stock plunged more than $13 and today it completely erased that loss. Overhead resistance near its 50-dma and the $100.00 mark held but if the wider market sees any sort of follow through on today's market rally then we would expect to see DRYS hit our stop loss. Speaking of stops at $100.05 that seems just a little too close and we could get stopped out on a very minor break above resistance. We're going to adjust the stop to $100.75, which is still relatively close. We are not suggesting new positions at this time although technically a failed rally at $100 would be a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $80.50-80.00 range. FYI: Yesterday DRYS announced a 3-for-1 stock split. Today's big move +17% might have gotten a boost from that news.

Picked on November 11 at $ 97.13
Change since picked: + 1.10
Earnings Date 10/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

---

Borg Warner - BWA - cls: 100.00 change: +0.87 stop: n/a

The action in BWA today looks like relative weakness. Shares traded sideways and closed at the $100 mark. This would have been a good day to see another rally higher. The lack of movement is just another nail in this strangle play's coffin. We have three days left before November strikes expire. The options we suggested for a strangle were the November $100 calls (BWA-KT) and the November $90 puts (BWA-WR). Our estimated cost was $4.50. Due to our lack of time we are adjusting our target to breakeven at $4.50.

Picked on October 23 at $ 95.67
Change since picked: + 4.33
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 392 thousand

---

Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 64.67 chg: +1.29 stop: n/a

Bulls continued to buy the dip in ESRX and if the rally can maintain any momentum we might have a chance. Please note that due to our lack of time we're adjusting our target to $2.50. More conservative traders might want to plan an exit at breakeven. There are three days left for November options. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions on ESRX. The options we suggested for a strangle were the November $65 calls (XTQ-KM) and the November $55 puts (XTQ-WK). Our estimated cost was $1.95. We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher.

Picked on October 21 at $ 59.65
Change since picked: + 5.02
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

---

Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 36.51 chg: +1.09 stop: n/a

The situation looks pretty grim for this strangle play. MNST needs to produce some big moves and in a hurry. We only have three days left on November strikes. We are no longer suggesting new positions. The options we suggested for our strangle were the November $40 calls (BSQ-KH) and the November $35 puts (BSQ-WG). Our estimated cost is $1.75. We are adjusting our exit to breakeven at $1.75.

Picked on October 23 at $ 37.22
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Chipotle Mexican Grill- CMG - cls: 126.45 chg: +9.33 stop: 125.12

A volatile market combined with a volatile stock like CMG turned out to be too dangerous! We warned readers that our biggest risk was a bearish breakdown under support, which we would use as an entry point for puts, only to see it reverse higher on us. Yesterday the stock lost about 4.50 and today shares completely erased that loss. As the rally ramped up into the closing bell CMG made a final rush higher to breakout above the $125 level and hit our stop loss.

Picked on November 12 at $119.45
Change since picked: + 7.00
Earnings Date 10/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 697 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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