Responding to a question after his address to the House Budget Committee this morning, Fed Chairman Bernanke referenced "sliced, diced and sold" debt packages. The securitization and wide dispersal of such packages complicated finding a solution to the subprime problem or even quantifying the extent of the problem. A loan servicer who has securitized and widely dispersed loans has more difficulty working out a solution with a mortgagee in danger of defaulting. The servicer likely no longer holds the loan.
Fed Chairman Bernanke did attempt to quantify the problem, saying that currently 5 million subprime loans total $1 trillion in value. Of those, about 20 percent are delinquent, the Fed estimates. If all those foreclose--which they won't, the chairman asserted--and if one wants to be pessimistic and believe that only 50 percent of the value of those properties is recovered, the loss would be $100 billion. If more delinquencies occur, which is expected, the eventual loss could be "several multiples" of that figure.
This week has provided some insight into how those losses will be parceled out. Merrill Lynch (MER) joined this week's list of reporting financial institutions this morning, stunning market watchers with a much larger-than-anticipated loss and a $14.1 billion write down.
Another financial institution estimated that it would be able to earn back mark-to-market losses within four or five years. Phrased less optimistically, that bank will require four or five years to recover those losses. Mark-to-market losses occur when those "sliced, diced and sold" packaged debt instruments turn out to be worth far less on the market than the book values at which they had been held.
More quantification of risk was offered. Moody's signaled that it would be reevaluate ratings on bond insurer Ambac (ABK) and would also study the ratings of other firms that might be impacted by the same pressures hitting Ambac. ABK and peer MBIA Inc. (MBI) both dropped today. A Dow Jones article speculated that any cut in rating could prompt a revaluation of $3 trillion in outstanding debt, such as municipal bonds.
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We wanted to know how bad the damage would be. The widely disseminated view was that once everything was in the open, markets would recover. Today's reaction differed from that bandied-about prediction, however.
Before these earnings announcements, markets had been cheered. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Bernanke had expressed openness to congressional and White House efforts to stimulate the economy, as long as those efforts met certain conditions. Futures rose, with market participants anticipating the chairman's address before the House Budget Committee at 10:00 am ET.
After MER's earnings, the chairman's openness to a stimulus package may have taken on a whiff of desperation, with some market participants worrying that openness was another word for neediness. The Fed needs help, some might have concluded. During Chairman Bernanke's speech and the question-and-answer session, the expressed and often-repeated requirement that such a stimulus package be felt quickly perhaps intensified that impression.
While market participants were reevaluating just how much clarity they wanted after all, more information came their way. "Interbank markets are quite dysfunctional," Chairman Bernanke said at one point this morning, explaining that the rates at which banks lend to one another are too high. Although there's been some recent improvement, it's clear that the so-called credit crunch has not yet been entirely resolved, and that wasn't something that markets wanted to hear.
Then the Philly Fed coupled economic weakness with rising prices, and market participants had had enough. The bottom fell out.
Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:
The SPX's weekly close beneath the long-term red channel as well as other "not since 2003" weekly closes on other charts suggest to me that the markets have changed their tenor. I would consider any bounces now to be countertrend ones, but that doesn't mean that they can't be sharp and pronounced. That's characteristic of bear-market rallies.
From where would a relief rally begin? A look at the weekly SPX chart shows the May 2006 high near 1327, the weekly 200-ema at 1321, and the weekly 200-sma at 1291.45. Potential daily Keltner support is at 1315.
The SPX, then, moves into a zone rich with potential support. The truth, though, is that markets fall faster than they climb. Those falling knives cut through support like butter. We can see potential support and we can prepare our trading plans for the possibility of bounces from those support levels, but we shouldn't hang onto losing positions that are below our preferred stop levels on the hope that support will hold. That's just not wise account management.
I was watchful for a bounce attempt as that blue trendline was approached. It didn't happen. It's possible that sentiment just pushed prices through support levels today and that there will be quick bounce above it tomorrow. Rumors run wild that the Fed might announce a cut tomorrow morning to blast shorts out of the water again on a settlement-day Friday morning, as they did last summer, but rumors have circulated for a week that the Fed would cut any day now, without that happening.
Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:
Today, the Dow stopped at the top of a support zone from the weekly chart as the Dow was chopping out its March 2007 lows. Potential Keltner support on the daily chart falls within that zone, too. Vulnerability to the bottom of that zone can't be ruled out, but bears should be watchful for a bounce attempt that could begin at any time.
Most of us, even options traders who can trade both sides of a movement, would like to see our markets steady here. Will they? With markets cutting through all support levels, it's impossible to identify the one that will be "the" one to hold, but I would certainly be watchful for the possibility that a bounce attempt could get started. We'll look later at some short-term signs to watch on intraday charts.
Like the SPX, any bounce should be considered countertrend. Potential resistance must be considered now at the blue trendline, the red trendline and the 10-sma.
Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:
The Keltner setup shows that target and potential support on daily closes at 2333.54, with strongest resistance currently at 2446.01-2460.17 on daily closes.
Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:
The SOX behaved much better than many other indices, which is one of the few elements of hope provided to suffering markets today. I don't have room to show all the Keltner charts, too, but the SOX's shows the SOX reaching right up to test the daily 9-ema, getting knocked back from that. The SOX remains in a confirmed downtrend until and unless it begins sustaining daily closes above that 9-ema, at 362.42 at today's close. Stronger resistance exists near 376 on daily closes. Light support on daily closes exists at 342.36, but if that breaks, it looks as if the SOX has just been consolidating prior to a drop toward the 2002 lows.
Annotated Weekly Chart of the RUT:
The RUT's daily chart suggests a potential downside target and potential support on daily closes near 671. On 8/06/07 and 8/16/07, the RUT hit that Keltner channel line exactly and sprang higher both times. That's no guarantee that will happen again, but RUT bears should be alerted to the possibility that support strong enough for a bounce attempt is being approached. If a bounce attempt should begin, either immediately or after a punch down to that channel line, watch for potential resistance at the weekly 200-sma and layered all the way up to 708.
Annotated Weekly Chart of the TRAN:
Several economic releases or developments occurred today, beginning with the Labor Department's regular announcement of weekly initial and continuing jobless claims. With the country perceived to be on recession watch now, these initial claims assume more importance than they did in the past.
The Labor Department reported an unexpected drop of 21,000 in first-time claims. Those claims dropped to 301,000, the lowest level in almost four months. The four-week average, deemed more reliable, dropped 11,750 to 328,500. That's the lowest level in almost three months. Year-over-year, initial claims have risen about 5 percent.
However, continuing claims show a more troubling trend. Those claims rose 66,000. The four-week moving average rose 28,250 to 2.73 million. That's the highest level in more than two years. People who lose jobs apparently have difficulty find new ones. Year over year, continuing claims have risen about 11 percent.
For much of last year, the insured unemployment rate oscillated between 1.9 and 2.0 percent. This latest report pegged it at 2.0 percent.
During the same time slot, December's New Residential Construction figures were released. Industry watchers predicted a slip in housing starts from an annualized 1.187 million to 1.140 million, but the drop was a deeper one. The Commerce Department reported that construction dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million. That's the lowest it's dropped in more than 16 years, one article noted, representing a 14 percent drop in construction. Starts for single-family housing fell 3 percent to 794,000. For all of 2007, housing starts dropped 25 percent to 1.35 million.
Some economists believe that building permits better predict strength or weakness, but that figure offered little comfort, either. Permits fell 8 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.07 million. Although that wasn't a 16-year low, as was the construction figure, it was a 14-year one. For all of 2007, permits fell 25 percent to 1.38 million, a twelve-year low, and single-family permits fell 29 percent to 1.05 million, the lowest in 15 years.
Housing completions fell, too. The Commerce Department warns that these figures are volatile. For December, the government said that the standard error for housing starts was plus or minus 8 percent.
I want to remind subscribers that while many have called a bottom in the housing market at various times over the last two years, one writer on staff has consistently warned us not to believe the pundits calling for a bottom. Keene Little posted historical figures early last year and warned us not to believe in a bottom until annualized housing starts and/or permits had fallen below 1.0 million. In fact, in an email confirmation of his figures today, Keene stated that a bottom is reached "below 1M, typically closer to 800K." He wonders if the pendulum might swing even lower this time because its arc swung so high toward excesses.
With housing starts and building permits sinking so close to 1 million in today's release and with Keene's previous research in mind, perhaps it's time to begin looking at stocks of homebuilders and studying the DJUSHB, the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index, for signs of a recovery. Don't jump blindly into these stocks or options on these stocks, thinking Keene or I said the bottom is in. That's not what I said. Do consider researching the strongest, comparing relative strengths, thinking about what you'll need to see to be convinced that a tradable bounce might occur. I'm sure Keene will offer more insight when he writes his Wrap next Wednesday.
One of today's biggest developments was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the House Budget Committee at 10:00. Speaking on the economic outlook for the U.S., Chairman Bernanke reiterated some of the points that he made last week. He walked the committee through the history of the current problems, again talking about how bank balance sheets "were swelled" by various vehicles and the resultant complications for our financial system. He detailed the two-year slump in housing.
More importantly, he repeated last week's conclusion that recent developments have pointed to more pronounced downside risks to growth in 2008. He again mentioned concern about labor market conditions, but noted that weakening conditions in the U.S. were being met by "vigorously" expanding economic activity in our major trading partners that would keep U.S. exports growing. When questioned about the difference in the FOMC's approach to lowering rates and the ECB's determination not to do so, he pointed to differences seen in the U.S. and Europe. Europe and Asia haven't suffered through two years of a housing slump, for example, he said.
Fed Chairman Bernanke also pointed out inflation concerns but said that he believed that core and overall inflation would moderate over the next year. During the question-and-answer session, he responded to a question about the inflation measures that the Fed watches, perhaps because his prepared statement mentioned commodities.
The Fed does watch gold and other commodities, he affirmed, but those aren't pure inflation measures because they're also impacted by geopolitical conditions. The Fed likes to compare the return on TIPS (inflation-protected bonds) with other bonds, and commented that the Fed hadn't seen a ratcheting up of comparative demand for TIPS. That was encouraging, he believed. The Fed also looks at surveys of firms and households. Those indicated some rising concern on the part of households over the short-term, he said, but both firms and households were not showing increased concerns over a 5-10 year period.
Again this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke detailed the efforts that the Fed has made through its monetary policy, including the TAF (term auction facility) and other steps, to improve liquidity. He labeled such actions "proactive" and said some positive results had been achieved. Still, conditions can change quickly, he admitted, and the FOMC must be vigilant.
To verify the "some positive results" part of his talk, the Fed's separately released report on outstanding commercial paper today showed an increase of $33.5 billion in outstanding paper for the week through January 16 when seasonally adjusted. Whether seasonally adjusted or not, outstanding commercial paper rose, with asset-backed paper constituting a large part of the increase. These were the largest increases in the five weeks detailed on the weekly report.
His appearance before the committee gained importance because of recent economic developments as well as from the impression that he might be receptive to a White House and congressional stimulus bill for the economy. Fed Chairman Bernanke had already indicated his interest in a congressional and White House plan January 10.
A relief or stimulus plan was referenced in his prepared remarks, termed "fiscal policy actions." Such a stimulus package must be put into effect quickly enough that its impact is felt in the next 12 months. It should be temporary. It should get the maximum bang (stimulus) per buck ("increased federal expenditure or lost revenue"), he warned.
During the question-and-answer session, Chairman Bernanke resolutely refused to tell policy makers exactly how such a stimulus package should be structured. "The exact mix is up to you," he told one questioner. He did comment that tax rebates had helped moderate the 2001 recession, and that tax rebates received by low- and moderate-income people are more likely to be quickly spent and to stimulate the economy.
He also refused to term the current economic weakness a recession. He reiterated that the FOMC is not forecasting a recession but rather a slowdown. Our economy is resilient and diversified, and "has inherent strengths," he asserted.
Some might not have been sure whether the Fed's new willingness to be aggressive in cutting rates, if necessary, would result in the cuts that market watchers want. The Fed must also maintain credibility on inflation, Chairman Bernanke said, and a later Fed speaker was to harp on that point a bit more than was comfortable for those watching a weak market and hoping for that promised substantive cut.
For those who would like to read Chairman Bernanke's prepared statement, it can be found at this link.
While Chairman Bernanke was speaking, the Fed's Philadelphia district released the important Philly Fed Survey. Officially known as the Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, this is one of the district surveys that tend to predict the ISM's direction.
Economists had predicted a decline in this number, and a decline was seen. The diffusion index of current activity dropped "sharply," the Philly Fed said, to -20.9. That's deep into contraction territory. Many releases today were accompanied with a "the lowest since" label, and this one was, too. The Philly Fed said this was the lowest number since October 2001. This index dropped from a revised December reading of -1.6.
The Philly Fed noted that many component indicators also declined. These included the new orders index, current shipments index, unfilled orders index and delivery times index. Perhaps most importantly, employment and hours worked declined. The Philly Fed said that the current employment index fell to its first negative reading in more than four years.
Even worse, the Philly Fed reported that the prices paid index jumped from December's 36.5 to January's 49.8. The prices received index also climbed.
Both sets of figures--those relating to activity and to prices--went the wrong direction in this report. So did the six-month outlook. Those who want a more detailed look at the specifics of each component index can find the Philly Fed report at this link.
December's Risk of Recession also appeared at 10:00. This Moody's Economy.com probability-of-recession number increased to 56 percent. That's the highest number since the last time we were in a recession: 2001.
The Department of Energy released weekly natural gas inventory figures at 10:30. Those inventories dropped 59 billion cubic feet.
Fed Chairman Bernanke wasn't the only FOMC member to speak today. About the time the chairman's question-and-answer session ended, statements from the Fed's Richard Fisher, a voting member, began hitting the wires. Fisher may have knocked the legs out from under recent expectations that rate cuts would be coming at frequent intervals and in big amounts. He also emphasized the Fed's readiness to take "substantive" actions to keep the economy from slipping into recession, but this voting member's qualification that such action would be taken "as long as inflation expectations remain contained" probably wasn't what some market watchers wanted to hear. Fisher wants a tighter monetary policy than that seen in the 90s and says that globalization will complicate the Fed's efforts to control inflation. In fact, he asserted that the Fed would "have to err on the side of running tighter policy . . . to limit upward inflation pressures."
President Bush's administration was also in favor of a fiscal stimulus. Reuters today reported that the administration is close to proposing a package, and CNBC was reporting this afternoon that it would be revealed tomorrow.
As mentioned in the introduction, Merrill Lynch (MER) reported today. MER reported a record loss of $9.83 billion or $12.01 per share. This was a far deeper loss than the $4.93 a share loss on revenue of $399 million anticipated by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. A year ago, MER had reported a gain of $2.41 a share on revenue of $2.35 billion. Was this the kitchen-sink quarter for MER, the quarter in which it would throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, the quarter when investors and market participants might finally see how much damage the gutted building had sustained?
The company revealed that it wrote down $14.1 billion for the quarter. CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) and subprime mortgages amounted to $11.5 billion of those write downs, and credit valuation adjustments on hedges on CDOs amounted to another $2.6 billion. One source said that at the end of the fourth quarter, MER had $9.6 billion in exposure to foreign mortgages and $2.7 billion in exposure to subprime mortgages.
If MER might have helped us get a better look at how bad the write downs are going to be, another bank, Bank of New York Mellon, may have given us a glimpse of how long it will take our financial institutions to recover from the damage. The bank took a $118 million charge related to CDOs or collateralized debt obligations. The bank's earnings of $0.45 a share on net income of $520 million were compared to year-ago earnings of $2.27 a share on net income of $1.63 billion. The bank said that earning back its mark-to-market loss would tale four or five years.
Not all reporting companies reported bad news. PPG Industries (PPG) purportedly beat expectations. The company's stock moved higher before market weakness caught up with it and pushed it a few cents below yesterday's close.
Several companies reporting after hours saw late-day bounces. Those included Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), IBM (IBM) and Washington Mutual (WM). Reports were just trickling in as this report was prepared, not allowing time for a close examination of the reports. AMD's report also included a $1.675 billion charge and the company did not report the EPS without the charge, complicating comparisons to estimates from Thomson Financial. Some were characterizing the loss as narrower than expected once the charges were backed out. After hours, it was last trading at $6.56, up from its $6.34 close.
WM reportedly threw in the kitchen sink in its report, too. The company took a $1.6 billion charge that it will use to set aside more provisions for house-market-related losses and to write down the value of its home loan business. The company's net loss was $1.87 billion.
IBM reported earnings of $2.80 a share on revenue of $28.9 billion, matching the preliminary results that it reported Monday. It reportedly raised guidance for 2008. After hours, it was last trading at $106.25, up from its $101.10 close.
Tomorrow's Economic and Earnings Releases
Tomorrow's economic releases begin with January's Consumer Sentiment and the Conference Board December Leading Indicators, both released at 10:00. A big change in Consumer Sentiment away from the 74.7 expectation in either direction might impact trading. I've been saying for a while that consumer spending patterns might assume more importance again, and today's discussion of a stimulus package points out how important it will be for consumers to feel confident enough to spend money and stimulate the economy.
The leading indicators tend to be anything but leading. The numbers tend to be predictable. Expectations are for a 0.1 percent drop.
At 10:30, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index will be released.
Also important on Friday will be GE's earnings announcement. Other reporting companies include ACO, CBU, JCI, WIT and WL.
What about Tomorrow?
Many months ago, I revealed on the pages that I anticipated much more weakness in the stock markets, and I detailed the steps I'd taken on in our personal accounts. Through the intervening months, I've been pinpointing signs that I've been seeing, counseling subscribers not to be panicked but to use these offered opportunities to make some what-if plans of their own.
It now appears to me that the long-term tenor has changed, and I'll need to see some signs that bounces are anything but countertrend or relief bounces before I change that impression.
That doesn't mean that we won't see bounces and perhaps big ones. I don't know about you, but I'm about ready for one. As the day closed, no signs of a imminent bounce had appeared, so let's look at what we'll need to see before we believe one has arrived.
Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the SPX:
Unless the SPX gaps above that 30-minute 9-ema or is being driven higher on strong volume, expect potential resistance there, with stronger resistance at the 1354-1356 zone and then near the descending pink 45-ema. That 45-ema is likely to be closer to 1365-1370 when tested.
Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the Dow:
Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the Nasdaq:
Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the RUT:
I can't tell you what will happen by tomorrow morning. If the last weeks have shown us anything, they've shown us how completely the character of the market can change overnight. Our markets may be being impacted by a further unwinding of the yen carry trade, and that's impacted as much by what's going on in Japan as by what's happening here. Two important numbers will be released tonight in Japan, one at about 6:50 pm ET and one about midnight. If the Fed does lower rates tomorrow morning or GE surprises everyone, although it's not known for surprises, tonight's setup wouldn't mean anything.
What I can tell you is how it works if the tenor is to improve. The 30-minute 9-ema provided resistance today on 30-minute closes, so if you're hoping for a change in tenor, you first want that to change. You want 30-minute closes above that average. Then, you want to see those closes sustained. Those are the first tentative steps.
Then you want gains to be quick enough to roll the 9-ema higher again, dragging that whole blue channel with it. And, on any pullbacks, you then want to see the 9-ema's support sustained on 30-minute closes.
You don't want to see the SPX or other index crisscrossing back and forth across the average--that's choppy consolidation being made evident. If gains begin to be sustained above the 30-minute 9-ema and gains are swift, then you might roll down to a 15-minute chart and watch that same 9-ema. Be aware that during the lunchtime lull period, the 9-ema often flattens and the SPX trades across it at will to the opposite side of the smallest channel, but you don't want it to go further than that on 15-minute closes or something may be changing. Maybe not, but you can't afford to let things go too far the wrong way in this market climate.
If the markets are rallying and you're participating with a bullish play, you want to be aware that no matter now convincing the rally, how long it progresses, markets are susceptible to cratering again at any time, so you absolutely want to maintain good trade management skills. Do set stops and do honor them. Do not take on more risk than you can afford. When I was actively day and swing trading, I tended to avoid trying to catch market turns and particularly avoided countertrend trades, but that's just me.
If you're in a bearish trade and hoping for a continuing decline, then you want continued 30-minute closes beneath the 30-minute 9-ema. It's as simple as that.
So, what do I think is likely tomorrow? I honestly don't know. An experienced
trader and former OIN writer wrote me tonight to point out that the put/call
ratio ended the day today at 1.51, close to its 8/16 value at 1.53. Others have
proposed other reasons to expect a relief rally, something that I've been
watching for all week without it ever appearing. Just pick out a benchmark such
as that 9-ema and watch. It might be a great day for paper trading or
researching. If you jump into
a trade and are proven wrong, then jump right back
out. If you're already in a trade, your task is to protect profits first and
keep losses low second.
Play Editor's note: Wow! 2008 is off to an amazing start. I think it is the 3rd worst start for a year in the stock market's history. There seems to be a unanimous decision that we have not seen the bottom yet. Yes, it looks bad but investors haven't capitulated just yet. There is a lot of focus on the volatility index (VIX). Most are looking for the VIX to spike into the 30-31 zone as a sign the selling has run its course. While this is a great signal to watch there is nothing to stop the VIX from shooting past 31 to something much higher. On the positive side some of the signals I watch are suggesting we are definitely very close to a short-term bottom. So how do we trade this? Naturally just about everything is bearish and looks like it's heading lower. However, adding new bearish positions now after a three-day sell-off would seem foolish. The DJIA has lost 620 points (4.8%), the S&P 500 lost 83 points (5.8%) and the NASDAQ Composite has lost 132 points (5.3%). I tried looking for stocks were we could try and target a dip near support but nothing really screamed at me. We'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow - of course it is an options expiration Friday so it could definitely be another volatile session.
FYI: A few stocks I am watching...HSIC looks like a buy over $64.00. Shares of MO might be a bullish candidate on a dip near its rising 50-dma. HON will probably bounce near the bottom of its trading channel near $53.00. I am also watching AAPL for a dip near $150.
Blackstone - BX - close: 18.37 chg: -0.73 stop: 17.24
It's getting ugly out there. By all accounts the oversold bounce and bullish reversal in BX is now dead. The stock has produced two failed rallies under $20.00 in the last two days. BX looks like it's poised to retest the January lows near $17.25. This is a high-risk, aggressive play and at this point I would be looking for a bounce at the January low, which would actually be a good spot to try capturing a rebound again. I will reiterate that trying to call the bottom or catch the falling knife or whatever you want to call it is usually dangerous for your trading account's health. We all know that stocks don't go up or go down in a straight line for very long. I'm actually suggesting readers consider buying calls again on a bounce in the $17.50-17.25 zone. I would use a stop loss under whatever appears to be the intraday low or maybe $16.99. If BX hits our new entry zone I'll relist it as a new play. We do not want to hold over the February earnings report.
Picked on January 10 at $19.84
Covance - CVD - cls: 91.61 change: -2.46 stop: 86.99
The market is finally starting to weigh on shares of CVD. The stock lost 2.6% today and I suspect shares will dip toward $90.00 tomorrow. That should be our entry point to buy calls! Our suggested entry point is the $90.50-90.00 zone. Our first conservative target is $94.50-95.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $99.00-100.00 range. FYI: We are unfortunately, running low on time. We don't want to hold over earnings.
Picked on January xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Genzyme - GENZ - close: 81.13 change: +1.40 stop: 74.95
GENZ displayed some very impressive relative strength today. The NASDAQ may have lost 2% but GENZ posted a 1.75% gain and a new high. Volume has been surging on the rally, which is bullish. If you've been waiting for a move over $80.00 then you got it yesterday. Our target is the $84.00-85.00 range. I would actually consider a second, more aggressive target in the $88-90 zone. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $94 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech company it is always a high-risk play due to headline risk. You never know what news might come out concerning an important FDA decision or clinical trial that could dramatically move the stock price and see shares gap one way or the other.
Picked on January 13 at $ 78.56
Liberty Media - LCAPA - cls: 102.06 chg: -4.71 stop: 110.05*new*
The sell-off in shares of LCAPA is definitely picking up speed. The market meltdown certainly helps. The stock lost 4.4% and closed at its lows today. We are adjusting our stop loss to $110.05. More conservative traders could try and inch down their stop to the 10-dma. Our target is the $100.25-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $98 target. Warning: We cannot find an earnings report date for LCAPA but the company appears to have a history of reporting in February. Not knowing when they report is a risk since we don't want to hold over the event.
Picked on January 15 at $107.49 *triggered
Priceline.com - PCLN - cls: 89.36 chg: +6.07 stop: 100.51
Shares of PCLN have crumbled in the last two days. The stock reversed under its 10-dma Wednesday and broke down under support near $95 today. We were suggesting an entry at $93.99, which was hit today. PCLN hit an intraday low of $86.84 before bouncing a bit. Now that the play is open our target is the $82.50-80.00 range. More conservative traders will want to consider exiting near $85.00. Please note that PCLN can be a very volatile stock. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.
Picked on January 17 at $ 93.99 *triggered
Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 88.93 chg: -1.32 stop: 100.26*new*
SHLD looks like it was trying to rebound yesterday but today's market sell-off just sucked the wind out of any bounce. We would watch for a failed rally at the 10-dma (near 95.00) as a new bearish entry point to buy puts. Please note we're adjusting the stop loss to $100.26. We had two targets. One target was $91.00-90.00. The second target was $85.50-85.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $78 target. SHLD has actually exceeded both of our targets but the stock has just not cooperated with an entry!
Picked on January 13 at $ 96.17 (gap down 86.43)
Shire Plc - SHPGY - close: 63.76 change: -1.13 stop: 68.07*new*
SHPGY came close to hitting our second target on Wednesday. Shares dipped to $62.40 before bouncing back. Fortunately, for us the bounce failed and shares produced another bearish reversal-looking candlestick today. We are adjusting the stop loss to $68.07. We're not suggesting new positions at this time although more aggressive traders may want to aim for the $60 level. The stock has already hit our first target near $65. Our second target is the $62.00-60.00 zone.
Picked on December 13 at $ 68.07 *triggered/gap down entry
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Biogen Idec - BIIB - cls: 61.05 chg: +1.06 stop: n/a
BIIB may be showing some relative strength but it's too little too late. Unless shares move significantly tomorrow it's lights out for this strangle play. The options we suggested for our speculative, higher-risk strangle were the January $65 call (IHD-AM) and the January $55 put (IDK-MK). Our estimated cost here is $1.05. We are adjusting our exit to anything in the $0.75-1.00 range.
Picked on January 10 at $ 59.18
Encana - ECA - close: 61.63 chg: -1.74 stop: n/a
This week's sell-off in shares of ECA have given us a brief hope of recapturing some of our capital on the put side. The put spike to 35 cents today and is currently trading at bid $0.20 ask $0.30. Tomorrow is the last day so take whatever you can get. If ECA can spike under the $60 level we might be able to recoup our cost. The options we listed for the strangle were the January $75 calls (ECA-AO) and the January $60 puts (ECA-ML). Our estimated cost is $0.65. We are adjusting our exit to anything in the $0.40-0.65 range.
Picked on December 20 at $ 67.52
Inverness Medical - IMA - cls: 55.60 chg: -3.75 stop: 57.45
Shares of IMA were hammered hard today. The stock broke down under support near $58.00 early on and just plunged toward the $55 level and its 100-dma. The stock hit our stop loss at $57.45 closing the play. IMA still has a long-term bullish trend so keep an eye on it for another opportunity.
Picked on January 08 at $ 58.50 *triggered/gap open entry
Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 53.58 chg: -4.62 stop: 57.49
Investors were selling everything today and JOYG got crushed for a 7.9% loss. The stock actually broke down under its 50-dma on Wednesday and hit our stop loss at $57.49 yesterday saving us from today's painful move lower. This move looks overdone and we would keep an eye on JOYG for another opportunity down the road.
Picked on January 09 at $ 60.19 stopped at: 57.49
McDonalds - MCD - cls: 51.96 chg: -0.45 stop: 53.25
MCD broke down under technical support at its 200-dma on Wednesday. The same day shares hit our stop loss at $53.25 closing the play. MCD continues to sink but we continue to hear a lot of support for the stock. Bullish investors may want to take another look at MCD near $50 or in the $47.50-50.00 region.
Picked on January 13 at $ 54.32 stopped at $53.25
Zimmer Holdings - ZMH - cls: 67.70 chg: +0.08 stop: 67.49
ZMH held up pretty well today. The stock actually posted a gain in spite of the market's big sell-off. Unfortunately, shares clipped our stop loss at $67.49 on Wednesday, January 16th. The play is closed. We would keep an eye on ZMH for a new rebound through the $70.00 level as another bullish entry point.
Picked on January 14 at $ 70.64 *gap open entry /stopped 67.49
Precision Castparts - PCP - cls: 107.99 ch: -3.76 stop: 128.21
Target exceeded and achieved. PCP has seen a sharp sell-off and shares have exceeded our first target in the $115.50-115.00 range. Today's 3.3% decline pushed the stock into our second target in the $110-105 zone. Given the market's bearish tone we wouldn't be surprised to see PCP decline toward $102-100.
Picked on January 14 at $124.50 target hit $115.50 & 110.00
You know you're in a bear market when talk of Government and Fed action ('happy' talk) no longer buoys the market. Of course there was more than that today with news on more write downs by Banks, Merrill's reported loss (even though widely anticipated) and a 16-year low in U.S. housing starts as part of the jolly news. No, I'm talking about the anticipated further Fed rate cuts coming, which in our not forgotten and recent bull market past, would have been enough to rally the market; that, and talk of anticipated action for a government stimulus package.
The difference is that we're probably in the throes of the second stage of a bear market as I wrote about in my last week's Trader's Corner (1/9) article. These stages, as originally observed by Charles Dow well over a hundred years ago, being:
1. Distribution (selling) of stock.
2. Panic selling.
CHEERFUL ISN'T IT!
Now for the good news or somewhat encouraging news. I wrote about something called the 'DECEMBER LOW' rule this past weekend in my column appearing in our online Index Trader section.
The Stock Traders Almanac points out a pattern that suggested we would get the bear trend we're in. This relates to the historical record for when the prior December low is pierced in the first 3 months (Q1) of a new year as has happened of course; in terms of the Dow Jones Average (INDU), when INDU closed below the December 13167 low on January 2nd.
What this is about is an observation made over a long period that when the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is has been frequently a warning of a substantial further decline to follow. Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst originated the 'December Low' indicator in the 70's. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead, said Hooper, "Pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!"
This is not to say that the market was then in trouble ALL year. In fact, 13 of the 27 occurrences where the December low was pierced were followed by gains for the rest of the year and gains for the full year, after the low for the year was reached. But, Hoopers 'watch out' warning for FURTHER declines was quite correct. All but one of these instances since 1952 saw further sell offs after the first low(s). In terms of the Dow, there was an additional 10.1% decline on average when the prior December low was pierced in Q1. Only 3 significant drops occurred when Decembers low was NOT pierced in Q1 (1974, 1981, and 1987).
OK. If we take today's close in the Dow at 12159 and use this over-rated (and narrow), but most widely followed Market average, as our benchmark, INDU has already declined 7.6 percent below its December closing low of 13167. If the average decline of 10.1 percent (below the December low) is the worst that is in store, and of course it could be more, could be less, we would expect to see a further decline to a Dow close around 11838. Which is only another 321 points; given today's drop of 341 points, we're only a day away! Well, I figure that we may be closer to at least an oversold rebound than thinking that we'll fall another 300+ points straight away for some technical reasons I'll lay out next.
Since I'm discussing the Dow here and using this our benchmark, I'll also say that, while a narrow index of only 30 stocks, this average does tend to trade very 'technically'. By this I mean that INDU tends to trade in fairly predictable chart patterns. For example, the long-term weekly Dow chart below has a well-defined uptrend channel. The 2006 weekly lows that are highlighted at point '3', represented the 3rd. major low defining a long-term up trendline dating from the 2002 bottom. The upper channel line, drawn parallel to the rising up trendline and touching the early-2004 high, was uncanny in predicting the area where the two major highs would occur last year.
IF intersection of the a possible point 4 on the long-term up trendline around 12070 were to act as a next technical support, then we could expect to see a rebound from at or near today's low. Stay tuned on that! As to whether any near-term rebound will carry much higher or for long, that's another question.
Judging by the 13-week RSI, INDU is already as 'oversold' as it's been in years. However, since bear markets, assuming that's now what we're in and I think we are, act differently in terms of oversold, we could see this indicator do the reverse of the highlighted RSI pattern in late-'06 to early-'07, when INDU got 'overbought' and then STAYED overbought. A lengthily oversold period ahead, registering a low RSI would be typical of a major bear trend.
ANOTHER CHARACTERISTIC OF THE BEAR
Just as traders get, and stay, quite bullish in a strong rising trend for stocks, my indicator of call to put activity is starting to register multiple readings suggesting a strong bearish outlook, according to my 'sentiment' indicator seen next on the daily S&P 100 (OEX) chart.
In a bull market trend or in a trend that is still PERCEIVED as in a predominate bull trend such as in the August-November period (see highlighted circles below), it only took ONE or at most two dips of my sentiment indicator into the 'oversold-extreme bearishness' zone seen in the lower portion of the daily OEX chart below, for a rally to then follow soon thereafter; i.e., within 1-5 trading days. Recently, we've seen THREE days at or below the level on my sentiment indicator where I would normally anticipate an upside reversal to be coming soon.
However, we now have to skew interpretation of my sentiment indicator to account for the conditions of a major bearish trend. While a rally coming up soon shouldn't surprise us, it's has (and should in the future) taken a more prolonged period of bearishness to 'set' up such a rally.
NOT SO FAST SMARTY PANTS
Not everything currently matches up in technical terms, especially when you have diverging trends in the Nasdaq relative to the major indexes that contain mostly NYSE stocks; e.g., the S&P. The 2007 super-strong Nasdaq 100 (NDX) would have to decline all the way (from today's 1842 close) to around 1700 to ALSO get back to ITS long-term up trendline. If this happened, all the other major index up trendlines would have broken down before this.
As to NDX, it's usually more realistic to compare the benchmark Nasdaq Composite (COMP) to the leading indexes measuring the NYSE market. And by that measure, COMP started to fall out of or below the low end of its weekly long-term uptrend channel today. However, if COMP rallies tomorrow, the index can still easily CLOSE within the uptrend channel highlighted below. The Composite is also getting finally into the area that marks the beginnings of a major oversold condition per the 13-week RSI.
The last thing to state as regards the ability for the major indexes to maintain their long-term UP trends, is that such bullish up trendlines can and do get pierced or broken in a major bear trend. We probably have lower to go all the way around, but so far some major up trendlines are holding or could still remain mostly intact. I'm waiting to see if the other shoe drops later, even if we get a short-term rebound developing soon. If there's significantly more downside to come, the target for the Composite may be down toward the 2000 area again.
GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Linda Piazza, Trader's Corner by
Leigh Stevens, and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
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