I dont know if it is coincidence or not but it seems like the market sells off everyday day I write. Stop writing the email asking what my schedule is! For most people working the close of Wednesday says we have two more days left until the Friday night office get together at the local pub and the weekend. For option traders Wednesday signals that there are only two days left until June expiration on Friday, the 20th. The last trading day for many cash-settled index options such as DJX, SPX, NDX and MNX options is Thursday, June 19th, with settlement prices determined by Friday morning's opening prints for the component stocks. Friday, June 20th is the last trading day for the OEX, XEO, ETFs and all equity options. ALERT! ALERT! The threshold for automatic exercise of stock-settled in the money options is has changed from $0.05 to $.01 beginning this expiration. Long equity options in the money by $.01 or more will be automatically exercised. Please monitor all your expiring positions. Be especially careful with the estimated $.15 DIA and $.45 SPY dividend on Friday morning.
The market internals on the NYSE show that 866 issues advanced versus 2268
declining. That is nearly a 3 to 1 ratio. At 1587 million shares traded, volume
on the NYSE clocked in 262 million more shares than yesterday. The volume today
was also higher than the 50 day moving average of volume on the NYSE. As for the
$TRIN it was only slightly bearish at 1.10. Extreme levels above 1.50 and 2.00
can be good short term long entries. Perhaps one of these Wednesdays the $TRIN
will read really
high and signal that capitulation occurred. If this happens, we
will go through a couple of trade ideas. We had one a few weeks ago that ended
up working out pretty well.
The index futures markets moved down early on negative news from Federal Express (FDX). FDX missed by $0.02 but beats on revenues. The company guided Q1 EPS below consensus and guided FY09 EPS below consensus. FDX reported Q4 (May) earnings of $1.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.47; revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $9.87 billion versus the $9.6 billion consensus. FDX also issued downside guidance for Q1. They see EPS of $0.80-1.00 vs. $1.27 consensus. FDX continued to issue more negative news with downside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.75-5.25 vs. $5.92 consensus. This guidance incorporates the current high fuel prices and the related impact on fuel surcharges, which are reducing demand for FedEx services and impacting yield across the company's transportation segments. This outlook is optimistic in that it assumes no additional increases to current fuel prices and no further weakening in the economy. Co said, "The operating environment for fiscal 2009 is expected to be very difficult due to the weak U.S. economy and extremely high fuel prices. However, we will focus on reducing expenses and remaining cash flow positive, and will continue to take positive steps to improve the customer experience across our portfolio of services." FDX closed down 2.03 at 82.60 which were up from the $80.75 open.
Fifth Third Bancorp (symbol: FITB) announced that it is raising $1 billion in capital and cutting its dividend in an effort to shore up its balance sheet. Adding salt to the wound was Moody's placing the long-term deposit and debt ratings of Fifth Third Bancorp and subsidiaries on review for possible downgrade. Today's rating action reflects Moody's view that much of the deterioration in Fifth Third's key credit fundamentals, including risk-adjusted profitability and efficiency, is likely to be permanent. "Most significantly, the bank's risk-adjusted profitability and efficiency are well below Moody's expectations at Fifth Third's current ratings level. Fifth Third's profitability and efficiency are likely to remain below our expectations because, in Moody's opinion, spreads on its loan portfolio will remain tight and provisions for loan losses will grow in the foreseeable future." The stock closed down 3.62 at $9.26.
Moody's is becoming the grim reaper of the financial sector. Today Moodys confirms MF Global's (symbol: MF) Baa1 rating and assigns negative outlook. Moody's confirmed the Baa1 long-term issuer rating of MF Global. The outlook on the rating is negative. The rating review was initially triggered by MF Global's announcement that it incurred $142 million in losses due to unauthorized trading by one of its employees. The review focused on the MF Global's ability to establish a sound long-term capital structure and improve its risk management, while sustaining the companys customer franchise and successfully managing its daily liquidity needs. MF closed down $5.41 at $7.83.
Pfizer will not have generic competition for the world's best selling drug Lipitor for 20 more months after settling a lawsuit with generics manufacturer Ranbaxy Laboratories. The good news is that the stock gapped up at 18.50. The bad news is that the stock only closed up 0.12 at 17.77.
On the Bright Side
Monsanto (symbol: MON) announced its Board declared an increase in the quarterly dividend on its common shares from 17.5 cents/share to 24 cents/share, an increase of 37%. The stock closed down $0.54 at $141.50 but is basically rubbing their prosperity in all of our faces.
Morgan Stanley (symbol: MS), a financial company, beat First Call Estimates by $0.03 but missed on revenues. MS reported Q2 (May) earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.92. Revenues fell 38.0% year/year to $6.51 billion versus the $7.05 billion consensus. The annualized return on average common equity from continuing operations was 12.3% in the current quarter, compared with 29.4% in the prior year. The company reduced the leverage and adjusted leverage ratios to 25.1x and 14.1x, respectively. The stock closed up $0.22 at $40.69 per share as many other financials were distributed.
Boeing was informed today that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found in Boeing's favor on a number of issues related to its protest of the U.S. Air Force's award of a $35 billion contract to supply the service with its next-generation aerial refueling aircraft, or KC-X tankers which are slated to replace the current fleet of KC-135 tankers. Boeing released the following statement from Mark McGraw, vice president, Tanker Programs: "We welcome and support today's ruling by the GAO fully supporting the grounds of our protest. We appreciate the professionalism and diligence the GAO showed in its review of the KC-X acquisition process. We look forward to working with the Air Force on next steps in this critical procurement for our war fighters." This news basically means the Dow Jones component can present another bid to replace the tankers originally thought to be built by Northrop Grumman (NOC). This news helped the markets from collapsing further.
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)
The $VIX advanced 1.11 to 22.24 today. As the chart shows the index came down to touch the uptrend line. The 200 day SMA at 22.83 provided some resistance for the index that measures Implied Volatility of the $SPX. As the $SPX declines the $VIX usually moves up. This inverse relationship is believed to occur from the declining market prompting speculators to buy put option at a rapid rate. The increased rate represents the willingness of the speculators and portfolio managers buying protection to pay higher prices as the supply evaporates. Supply evaporates at cheap volatilities because the increasing volume of put buying indicates to the store owner (the market makers) that there is a lot of demand at the current prices. The store increases the price and therefore causes inflationary pressures on the options price. Higher prices represent higher implied volatilities.
If the $VIX can break above the moving average cluster just above the close 24.47 will be the next target high to test. A test of this high without a breakout and close above it can be a decent short term long entry. I cover the current signal the 10 and 20 day moving averages are signaling in The Contrarian part of the newsletter. The Slow Stochastic (blue line = 29.76) has crossed above the 3 bar moving average (red line = 27.45). A cross and re emergence close above 20 normally signals a long. The index is currently on an uptrend. An uptrend in the $VIX represents increasing fear as measured by option premium and therefore confirms the downtrend in the underlying security ($SPX).
The S&P 500
The last few days have been trying for the bulls. The 89 day moving average served as significant resistance on Friday, Monday and Tuesday. The $SPX closed down a little of 13 points at 1337.84 after hitting an intra day low of 1333.40. As mentioned before, the volume on the broader market NYSE was higher than average and also classifies today as a distribution day. The next line of support is the 1324.25 low from April 15th. As the chart below shows the Slow Stochastic has also curled over. The $SPX may or may not bottom out at the next support because the Stochastic (51.85) has a lot of room until it is oversold.
A break below the 1324 support could put the index in jeopardy to breakdown completely and run down to around 1270. The uptrend line is currently inline with the 89 day moving average which should provide even more resistance once the market bounces.
On the above chart the lower Bollinger Bands has flattened a bit while the upper band is declined at a rapid pace. Last week I wrote how this might happen after the upper band began to go up while the index was breaking down. The 8 day Exponential moving average was the first line of defense or resistance earlier this week. The 8 day EMA is still below the 21 day EMA. A coincidental point here is the lower Bollinger band is about in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci line, giver or take a couple of points. Technical analysis is an art and a science. It takes science to calculate and view and art to interpret each chart. As with most art each spectator has the right to obtain their individual impression of the picture. For instance, I see a bearish pattern on the daily chart. You may put your own lines and indicators on top of the price and derive a completely different opinion from the same innate data. That is your right, and you may be right. One more point that I need to make is that trading the markets is not easy to do if you just pay attention to one stock or sector. It is just as important to understand various macro forces that affect stock prices. For instance, the internal pulse of the markets can be felt through listening to bond and commodity traders. The overall macro view of the market can be affected by something as simple as the exchange rate. My view is that the dollar should begin to strengthen somewhat and cause the crude prices to decline toward $100 by the end of the year. Why do I think the dollar should strengthen? Because as bad as America seems right now, the Euro zone (except for Germany) and Great Britain are about to experience a worse economy than ours. Also, the Fed is probably done flooding the world with greenbacks. Simply supply and demand: more supply lower value of the goods (the goods being the bad dollar). A strong dollar means that multi national stocks and international stocks will be fighting an uphill battle. That helps me come up with the plan to target companies with more exposure to the US. I am really looking at companies with exposure to Brazil, Germany, India and Canada. On to the next market, the NASDAQ!
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
I will be brief on this index today. The NDX closed down 21.72 at 1951.1 on higher than average volume. The day was classified as a distribution day and posses the threat to more to come. In addition, the NDX closed below the 200 day MA (1963) indicating additional reason for institutions to stay flat technology holdings. However, the 50 day moving average (1950) served as some short term support today. The Slow Stochastic ticked a little lower today but hasnt really confirmed that the momentum is negative.
The chart below shows the daily view of the NDX with Bollinger bands, the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages and the 5 bar RSI. The NDX wasnt able to hold above the 21 day EMA for more than one day so far this week. Also the 8 day EMA is still below the 21 day EMA. I might have mentioned last week that the stock or index tends to retest its new found downtrend to the limits by running up to and testing the slow moving average as the NDX certainly did. The markets are like children, always testing their boundaries. The lower and upper Bollinger bands are moving down slightly. The lower Bollinger band (1910.67) is calling out as a target for the NDX to test. And with the RSI only at 40.11, there might be some downside room for the market to move to before reaching really oversold. However, a close above the 21 day EMA may reverse the chart to a bullish pattern. Both the NDX and Russell 2000 (RUT) have been showing astounding resilience while the Dow and S&P have been weak. This is probably due to the financial and consumer discretionary sectors. Here is a quick view of the RUT to show what I mean.
From up above
The next NDX support levels are at 1950 and peak at 1850. The resistance is clearly at 2000 with 18,118 open options.
1325 shows some good open interest at 59,077 contracts. However, the peak out of the money put open interest is at the 1300 strike. Going up, 1350 stands as pretty good resistance with 21,693 contracts open. But the 1400 strike is really the peak level with 143,663 contracts.
Earnings and Economics for Tomorrow
The market will have to deal with the initial claims, leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed economic readings. There are seven companies confirmed to report earnings, including Carnival (CCL) and Circuit City (CC).
Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 103.36 change: -1.73 stop: 102.95
The bounce in defense stocks is failing and ATK is no exception. We still haven't seen any news to explain Tuesday's sudden drop. The bad news today is that the bounce from its trendline of support has failed. ATK is now testing that trendline of support again. If there is any follow through in the market to the downside tomorrow we do expect ATK to hit our stop loss at $102.95. Should things change and ATK rebounds then we'd look for a new move over $105.25 before considering new positions. We have two targets. The 200-dma is near $109.00. We're setting the first target at $108.75. Our second target is the $111.00 mark.
Picked on June 12 at $105.28
Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 83.06 change: +4.09 stop: 76.95 *new*
We strongly suggest that readers take profits here in BTU. Coal stocks were stronger thanks to a sector-wide rally fueled on positive analyst comments and raised price targets due to the rising price of coal. Shares of BTU soared more than 5% to a new high. The intraday high was $83.64. Our secondary target has been the $84.00 level. BTU might hit our target at $84 tomorrow but we still suggest readers take profits now. Our new stop loss is $76.95.
Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /1st target exceeded 79.75
Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 77.72 change: -0.72 stop: 71.65
BUCY has held up pretty well during a two-day market decline. It would not be shocking to see the stock pull back and retest its 10-dma around $75.50. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for another pull back near $75.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.
Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 144.45 chg: +2.29 stop: 132.49
Another positive analyst note on RIMM and a new $165 price target helped RIMM out perform the market today. Shares added 1.6%. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The stock looks short-term overbought and due for a dip. Readers should expect some profit taking in RIMM. A bounce in the $137-135 region might be a new entry point for bullish plays. Our second target is $154.50. RIMM has already hit our first target at $144.
Picked on June 16 at $136.05 *1st target exceeded $144
United States Oil - USO - close: 110.89 chg: +2.21 stop: 106.95*new*
It was something of a rocky day for crude oil with a morning drop that eventually reversed. Oil inventories came in lower again. The USO bounced from $107.12. This looks like a new entry point but keep two things in mind. First we plan to exit on Friday at the closing bell. Second, the USO still has short-term resistance near $112.75. We are raising the stop loss to $106.95. Our first target is the $114.90 mark. Our second target is $118.00. We strongly suggest you take some profits at the first target.
Picked on June 12 at $111.27
Emerging Markets 50 ADR - ADRE - cls: 52.59 chg: -0.53 stop: 55.01
The ADRE showed some weakness this morning but pared its losses by the closing bell. We're not suggesting new put positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 zone.
Picked on June 03 at $ 54.69
Caterpillar - CAT - close: 79.70 change: -0.99 stop: 83.55
CAT continues to roll over under resistance. This remains a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders could use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $75.25 mark. The stock "should" see some technical support at its 200-dma near $75.00.
Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Capital One - COF - close: 42.36 change: -1.51 stop: 46.41
Financials lead the market lower yet again. COF plunged to $40.90 before bouncing back. I suspect the stock could bounce back to the $44.00-44.50 zone. Look for a failed rally as a new entry point to buy puts. We have two targets. Our first target is $40.25. Our second target is $37.75. The Point & Figure chart has a $36 target.
Picked on June 17 at $ 43.87
Deere & Co. - DE - close: 78.06 change: -1.14 stop: 82.55
DE, much like it's rival CAT, is seeing its recent bounce fail. This is another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.
Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
DaVita Inc. - DVA - close: 49.47 chg: -0.59 stop: 52.01
DVA continued to slip lower today. Then without warning it just plunged in the last 30 minutes of trading. We did not find any news that might explain the sudden weakness. We have two targets. Our first target is 47.75-47.50. Our second target is the $45.15-45.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $45 target. FYI: Last month DVA announced a $250 million stock buy back program. At $50 a share that's about 5 million shares. DVA has about 104 million shares outstanding.
Picked on June 17 at $ 50.26
Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 46.96 chg: +0.20 stop: 49.05
ERTS tried to rally again but it failed under $47.50. We remain bearish on the stock. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop closer to the $48 level. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00.
Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.69 change: +0.01 stop: 3.91
ETFC was trading lower this morning, around $3.59, but traders were buying the dip this afternoon. I could see another bounce back toward $3.80 before the stock rolls over again. Wait for the failed rally before initiating new put positions. The options we suggested were the July $4.00 and $3.00 puts. We have two targets. Our first target is $3.25. Our second target is $3.05. FYI: In the news today ETFC released its monthly activity report for May. The company added 21,000 retail accounts. Customer assets were up almost 4%.
Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68
3M Co. - MMM - close: 74.30 chg: -0.67 stop: 77.05
MMM is still sinking and shares have hit new relative lows. This looks like another entry point for puts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target. FYI: If you are aiming for the $67 target then you might want to consider the October puts.
Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 48.02 change: -0.52 stop: 49.26
The NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) rolled over as expected. The Qs lost just over 1% and closed under the 200-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.
Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54
S&P 500 SPDR - SPY - close: 134.24 change: -1.32 stop: 137.26
Today's weakness in the SPY only confirms yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $132.40 mark, just above the mid April lows.
Picked on June 17 at $135.57
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.22 chg: -0.17 stop: n/a
The story is almost over for the June options, which expire in two days. Don't be surprised to see the "market" pin shares of AMGN near the $45.00 strike price on Friday afternoon. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56.
Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 100.05 chg: +3.92 stop: n/a
Positive analyst comments about rising coal prices lifted the entire sector today. ANR added 4% to close above round-number resistance at $100.00. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.
Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 90.84 chg: +3.84 stop: n/a
FDG is another high-flying coal stock. Shares added 4.4% to breakout over $90.00. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We were suggesting the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.
Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 43.09 chg: -0.39 stop: n/a
GRMN posted another decline on Wednesday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55 We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.
Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 39.78 chg: -0.82 stop: n/a
Rising crude oil puts margin pressure on the refiners. HOC lost another 2%. It's not too late to open new strangles. We would try and use the $41.00-39.00 zone as your entry range. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.
Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.21 chg: -1.00 stop: n/a
The bounce in MCD is fading fast. Shares lost 1.6% and closed under its 50-dma. We're almost out of time. June options expire in two days. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10.
Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 42.94 change: -0.46 stop: n/a
TYC lost 1% but it's still trading sideways. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in TYC at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain).
Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Valero - VLO - close: 44.06 change: -0.96 stop: n/a
VLO provided another entry point opportunity earlier today. At this time we're not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.
Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Robert Ogilvie and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.
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