I am sure many of you know that the various markets were up substantially today. The question is whether the economy is out of the woods and can now establish a sustainable bounce up to resistance. The efforts that the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and current administration have started probably wont be fully acknowledged for months to come. However, the goal for the Federal Reserves everything including the kitchen sink policy was to provide liquidity into the system and regain the perception that the banking system is better off than everyone feared. Positive perception is the key to the viability of the economy and markets. From my perspective, the markets all moved higher on the promise from the Federal Reserve and other central banks throughout the world would provide as much liquidity as needed in short term funding. The hope is that banks will feel comfortable lending to one another again as well as lending to consumers.
Another kick in the markets pants came from the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) would be renegotiating their deal. Last Friday the market feared that the risk of lowered credit ratings of MS would kill the deal and that MS would be the next stock to fail. By 9:40 the news came out and confirmed the closing of a $9 billion or 21% investment in MS. MUFG acquired $7.8 billion in perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock at a 10% dividend and a conversion price of $25.25. In addition, MUFG also acquired $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative NON-convertible preferred stock at a 10% dividend. MS gained $8.42 to close at $18.10.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) announced a $5billion share repurchase program. ABT closed up $4.76 at $54.21.
There was some speculation of a merger between Chrysler and General Motors (GM), but GMs board gave the idea a cool reception, according to the WSJ. Another Dow Jones component, General Electric (GE), declined $0.50 to $21.00 even though it is one of the few companies to still hold an AAA credit rating.
The most followed commodities, Crude Oil and Gold, moved up $4.14 to $81.84 and moved down $22.10 to $834.50, respectively. Last week gold wasnt trading at levels normally associated with catastrophic chaos like we have been experiencing. It was my assumption, even before the media reported that institutional investors were selling their long positions in gold to raise margin capital. On Friday, they even sold off Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). A lot of professionals were spotting the short term bottom for Crude at $85. Crude declined to about $75 on Friday for the same reason as Gold did. However, gold declined today as the concerns for the end of the world subsided a bit. With golds volatility, I dont believe it is the safe haven many gold bugs believe it to be. If another depression occurred, do you think that the U.S. currency would lose all of its value? And would gold replace paper as the currency? I think wheat, rice and water would be the best currency in the worst case scenario. But there isnt anything to worry about now that the markets are on their way back up, right?
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Lets look at todays internals to see if the move higher was as impressive on the inside as it appears from the outside. On the NYSE there were 3,316 advancing issues versus 205 decliners on over 3 billion shares traded. However, there were only 2 new 52 week highs and 125 new 52 weeks lows. The NASDAQ composite had slightly less advancers percentage wise but still managed to post an exceptional broad market rally. There were 2,574 advancing issues versus 429 declining issues on 2.8 billion shares. There were many more new 52 week lows than new 52 week highs with 133 and 2, respectively. With most of the sectors recovering from a freefall, there arent many stocks near highs to improve the 52 week highs. Weak sectors today include homebuilders and miners. Not all of the financials had a stellar day either. CME Group (CME), US Bank (USB) and Wells Fargo (WFC) spent most of the day in the red while Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS).
S&P 500 (SPX)
The SPX advanced upward 104.13 points or 11.58% to 1,003.35. Banks and the Bond markets were closed today for the Columbus holiday. Since the banks were closed today, none of them could report that they were closing due to liquidity issues or credit rating declines. I still wonder how Moodys and S&P ratings companies can still operate without some sort of SEC probe into why the companies maintained their AAA rating on the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Mortgage/Debt Obligations (CMOs/CDOs). Now these same ratings companies are reducing the ratings on the companies that hold MBSs, CMOs and CDOs as investments because the realized credit worthiness doesnt garner an AAA rating. Perhaps an announcement of a probe into Moodys Standard and Poors rating practices will assure a continued market advance. My assumption is that investors will regain confidence once these companies can no longer reduce the ratings on troubled bank stocks. The lowered ratings almost put Morgan Stanley out of business last week.
The above chart represents the SPX over the last five days. The top dashed line shows Friday October 3rds close at 1099.33. The lower dashed line is from last Tuesdays close. As you can see, todays 104 point move up only regained Wednesday, Thursday and Fridays losses and needs another 96 points to reach the closing low on October 3rd. Last Fridays run up in the last hour showed us how fast the market can move when it wants to. I think that the close on Friday reflected the mutual fund redemption requests that had come in throughout the day. I was instructed to sell some funds in the morning by a couple that were so troubled about their portfolio losses over the week that they were waiting for me at my office to give personal instruction. What was peculiar was that the wife seemed fine but the husband was concerned. In fact, the wife mentioned that her decision to sell would be the reason for the market to go up. And up it did. I told a couple of clients that I didnt like to add to the problem and that the market was near a bottom. My advice was and still is to sell into the strength of a bounce.
For instance, sell at the initial test of the resistance. The 21 DMA was initially the main resistance right after the 8 day crossed below the 21 day EMA. In the SPXs case, the 8 day exponential moving average (EMA) has been the dynamic declining resistance. The SPX closed just below the 8 day EMA, which closed at 1,005.84 today. Usually we would either short the test at resistance. But this bounce seems to have velocity. The RSI and Slow Stochastics have both re-emerged out of oversold territory. Fridays close managed to close above the lower Bollinger band. Last week, I outlined the support at 960 from the breakout gap in 2002. That same level appeared to be the resistance intraday until the buying came in after 3:00 PM. Last Monday, the SPX tried to bounce intraday but ended up failing to break through the 8 day EMA the following morning. Tuesday closed down sharply just below 1000. The SPX has returned above 1,000 after declining to a low of 839.80 on Friday. I believe the next resistance will be found at last Tuesdays high, 1072 and/or the 21 day EMA. Since I get to write tomorrow, I will have to revisit these charts to see if anything else develops.
The SPX moving average chart, as I refer to it, finally saw the Money Flow Index (MFI) dip below 30. I would prefer the MFI dip below 20 to mark an absolute selling climax. Even with todays move higher, the ADX managed to close slightly higher. But that is a lagging indicator. Since I use a 14 bar ADX, by the time the ADX signals that the trend downward has subsided, the market will have tested the resistance level and retraced. The 50 day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 1208, could be reached in two days like todays advance. According to the Fibonacci retracement calculations, the 38.2% retracement level (1069) is near last Tuesdays high. The 50% retracement is near the low established on the fake out low on 9/19. I believe the SPX still has about 70 points prior to establishing new sell signals. I want to show you all one last chart view of my prediction of how this market recovery will appear.
The chart above is of the SPX the March 2001 highs into the bear market lows of 2002. I believe the market recovery will be more of a U or W shape rather than a V shape. U shapes have more of a consolidation period before beginning to advance higher. Dont forget that one day does not a trend make. Even though the S&P futures are up 25 points as I write this, the market hasnt erased last weeks turmoil. Sell into rallies until that strategy no longer works. I have defined some areas of resistance that one can reduce upside exposure or increase Negative deltas. But breaks of these resistance levels should be cause shorts to be quickly covered. Dont try to be a hero and sell short the next leg down if there isnt going to be a leg. I could be wrong on the shape of the recovery.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ 100 is another one of my favorite indices. As with the SPX, the NDX closed above the lower Bollinger band after piercing it intraday. The NDX showed relative strength on Friday while the NASDAQ Composite posted a gain. The problem with the NDX is that is tends to gap higher and lower all the time. And that requires the market to move into these gaps. For instance, todays gap higher set a gap at 1317.48 that needs to be filled. However, the NDX looks pretty good for a run up higher to fill in the gap down from 10/3 at 1,469. The 21 day EMA is at 1,509 and declining. So the 21 day EMA may provide some short term resistance as early as tomorrow. The Naz futures are currently up 30 points which would put the open at 1469.50. The gap higher would also create a new gap that would then need to be filled. Therefore, the ebb and flow of consolidation is born. While the NDX appears to only have a short distance to travel before reaching resistance, the RSI and Slow Stochastics show that there is plenty of room for the oscillators to travel before becoming overbought. Basically, the NDX has some momentum built up in it and could blow through the 21 day EMA just to get retail traders over zealous about the assumed new uptrend and then bam!... the market sells off sharply hitting newly creates stops along the way to fill in the new gaps.
As mentioned earlier, the gap is asking to be filled (identified on the above chart by the purple line). I like the fact that the MFI dipped below 20 on the NDX chart. That shows that there was a massive amount of selling. In addition, the ADX actually posted a slightly lower level today which indicated that the previous trend (down) is subsiding. While the 50 day SMA is almost too far away to mention, it is at 1733 and declining along with the 89 and 200 day SMAs. I mention this because this decline has done a great deal of damage to the chart. While the science of the chart is just the numbers, the art of the chart isnt pretty if you are a bull. I believe that the indices will consolidate within a volatile range (small up trends followed by sharp declines) which brings the moving averages lower. They need to be lower for the NDX to break above the 50, 89 and 200 day SMAs. I refer back to 2002. It took about a year for the moving averages to come into the price.
EPS Scheduled Announcements
Since there arent any economic reports until Wednesday I will cover them tomorrow. However, as the month of October sets in there are more and more high profile companies reporting earnings. For instance, we will be watching Dow Jones components JNJ and INTC tomorrow. Pepsi reports tomorrow as well. Other interesting volatility plays include DNA, LLTC and ADTN. I look forward to covering tomorrows action for you. Have a good night and good trading tomorrow.
Play Editor's Note: Today's rebound in the markets, even if it was mostly just short covering, went a long way to confirming that last Friday was indeed an important bottom in the market. It's still early yet in the game but my bias is much more bullish. Stocks are likely to see some follow through higher on Tuesday morning but there will be some profit taking after such a tremendous move up from Friday's lows. Be patient and way for the dips before jumping in. Buying the dips and selling the rips is still a good strategy. Today's move provides a picture perfect, albeit volatile, three-day bullish reversal candlestick pattern on the S&P 500 index as well as many stocks and additional indices.
Mosaic - MOS - close: 44.21 change: +7.81 stop: 39.75*new*
It was another volatile day for MOS. The stock gapped open higher at $40.25, dipped back to $38.16 (our stop was 37.90) and then MOS rallied to a new multi-day high near $45.00. One of our suggested entry points was to buy calls on a breakout at $42.15. The play is now open. We're adjusting the stop loss to $39.75. If you don't want to chase MOS here, and we wouldn't, look for a dip back toward the $41-40 zone. Our first target is $49.00. Our second target is $59.00.
Picked on October 13 at $ 42.15 *triggered
Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 54.99 chg: -14.96 stop: n/a
The volatility index finally let off some steam. The "fear gauge" plunged more than 21% from all-time highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.
Note: The VIX options, which are European style options, have a unique expiration date. October VIX options expire on October 22nd, 2008. November VIX options expire on November 19th, 2008. The last day of trading for these options is the Tuesday before expiration. For more information check this link.
Our September 16th put position (suggested entry at 30.30) has a 25.50 target. In all honesty this position may be dead. We still have plenty of time with these next two. The September 29th position (suggested entry at 46.72) has two targets at 36.00 and 31.00. Our October 8th position (entry 57.53) has two targets at 40.00 and 35.00.
Picked on September 16 at = 30.30 first position
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 54.99 chg: -14.96 stop: n/a
Our new spread play on the VIX is off to a good start. The VIX opened around 70 and hit a high of 71.42 before collapsing to a 21% loss. Our strategy here was to sell some deep in the money calls to collect the premium and buy a much higher call as a partial hedge should the VIX stay elevated. The sharp drop in volatility did impact the prices we could have sold and purchased options at this morning but we are still in a good position. We don't have to hold these to expiration. If we want to we can always buy back our naked position whenever we want to exit. Please see the CBOE website or our Sunday play description for details on margin requires for selling VIX options.
Note: VIX options are European style options that settle for cash at expiration. Furthermore VIX options have unique expiration dates. October options expire on Wednesday, October 22, 2008 and will stop trading on Tuesday, Oct. 21. November options expire on Wednesday, November 19, 2008 and will stop trading on Tuesday, November 18th.
We are listing two different plays.
VIX spread #1 with October options:
We wanted to SELL the October 40 calls (the opening price Monday morning was $13.00) and BUY the October 60 (open was $2.90) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated.
Here is the strategy in another format:
VIX spread #2 with November options:
We wanted to SELL the November 30 calls (opening price was $ 8.60) and BUY the November 50 (opening price was $1.61) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated.
In a different format the play is:
SELL CALL NOV 30.00 VIX-KF. This option opened at $8.60, traded to 9.80 intraday, and closed at 8.40 on 10/13/08.
Picked on October 12 at $ 69.95
DIAMONDS Trust - DIA - close: 95.03 change: +11.28 stop: n/a
Targets achieved - both of them. It was a day for the record books. The Dow Jones Industrials posted its best day ever with an 11% gain. The DIA actually rallied more than 13%. This ETF gapped open at $88.04 and hit $95.03 this afternoon. We had two targets. Our first target was $89.50. Our second target was $95.00.
Picked on October 09 at $ 85.55/82.39open
PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 35.13 change: +3.81 stop: n/a
Target exceeded. The NASDAQ composite managed to out perform the other large averages with an 11.8% gain. The QQQQ, based on the NASDAQ-100 index, did even better with a 12.1% gain. Our target was $35.00 and the Qs hit $35.25 today. This was a risky bet on a bounce before October options expired and this time it paid off.
Picked on October 09 at $ 31.52/gap open 30.52
ITT Educational Servc - ESI - cls: 73.49 chg: +4.39 stop: 73.30
ESI was caught up in the short covering rally just as a rising tide lifts all boats. The stock hit our adjusted stop loss at $73.30 closing the play. Shares had previous hit our first target at $67.50 a few days ago.
Picked on October 06 at $ 73.30 *triggered/gap down
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Robert Ogilvie and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
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