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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 10/23/2008

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Whac-A-Mole

Trying to figure out where to trade the long side and the short side of this market reminds me of the game where you have to whack the mole as it pops its head out of the ground. It of course disappears and then suddenly pops out another hole.

Take a look at the numbers in the above table and see if you could figure out whether today was bullish or bearish. First thing you see of course is that the indices were in the green. Well, the blue chips were in the green. The techs and small caps couldn't find enough interest. Bullish the blue chips, bearish the rest. Volume was very heavy today so that's good on an up day, right? But down volume beat up volume and declining issues beat out advancing issues almost 2:1. So that's bearish, right? New 52-week lows continue to swamp new highs and that's bearish. Gold was down while oil was up so more mixed signals. All in all I'd say the mole won the day today.

After the low on October 10th I have repeatedly warned traders that we could enter a frustrating period of a couple of weeks where price chops sideways as it consolidates a bit before heading lower again. The trouble for those of us trying to trade the market is that the "chop" includes swings in the DOW of several hundred points and still not be particularly meaningful. A move of several hundred DOW points in the span of less than an hour has become standard practice for this market. And as soon as it rallies (pops its head out of the ground) and you try to join the rally it immediately ducks down and heads underground again only to pop back up at a different place, without you on board.

The overnight action in equity futures is not giving us any clues either. Last night futures rallied fairly strongly but then by the morning it had all been given up. The market then rallied after a brief dip and the DOW was up +250. It then gave up 550 points and was down -200 for the day before rallying 480 points in the final hour to close +172 for the day. Just another day in the market. What's amazing is that on the 60-min chart it looks like relatively small moves today. On the daily chart it's in the noise category and left a small candle.

So once again, if you're feeling at all frustrated in figuring out this market you are not alone. I don't listen to CNBC but I saw Jeff posted at the end of the day that Maria Bartiromo said, "This market is completely whacked". She doesn't impress me much but that was probably one of the brighter observations I've heard her make. As I'll review in tonight's charts, we could still be in a large consolidation pattern (4th wave correction for those following the EW (Elliott Wave) count in the move down) and these are probably the most frustrating to figure out real time. It's when the trend resumes out of it (down in this case) that it will become more recognizable as to what kind of consolidation pattern we had (bear flag, triangle, pennant, rectangle, etc.).

It doesn't seem very long ago that I was using daily charts for the bigger picture and 60-min charts to see what could happen over the next few days. Well, the weekly chart is the new daily chart and the daily has replaced the 60-min. The moves in this market have become so large that we have to take a bigger picture view of it just to try to make some sense of the moves. So onto the weekly and daily charts:

S&P 500, SPX, Weekly chart

Price has been consolidating just underneath the level of the price highs and lows from 2001 and 2002 (near 950) and its longer-term uptrend line from 1990. I believe the S&P will stay below that uptrend line throughout 2009. The pattern is set up for another leg down and I'm trying to figure out a downside target but won't have a good bead on it until it starts down again. For now I believe we'll see the October 2002 low at 768 either hold or be marginally broken. Some analysts I respect are calling for a crash from here but I don't see evidence of that in the EW pattern.

As pointed out last week, there is a potential turn week the last week of October (a Fibonacci 55 weeks from the October 2007 high) so that bears watching if we're getting a low into next week. From the next low we should get a bounce into the new year before breaking down again and giving us a longer-term bottom, good for perhaps 12-18 months, but it will likely be just a lot of consolidation rather than a strong cyclical bull market.

S&P 500, SPX, Daily chart

Price has essentially been consolidating since the October 10th low in what may be a descending triangle (declining highs, flat bottom). Out of this pattern should be another leg down to the 700-768 area, labeled wave 5. Because we're in a 4th wave correction it remains very difficult to determine where exactly we are within the correction. It's why I've stressed it's a time to be very careful and trade lightly. These 4th wave corrections are probably one of the primary reasons traders give back the profits made during the previous strong move (down in this case).

One idea that I don't show but that occurred to me as I was studying all the charts for tonight is the possibility for a small descending wedge to form from the October 14th high (labeled as wave 4 on the chart). That would suggest another up-down sequence to a minor new low (might not even reach 768) before starting the year-end rally. I'll cover that possibility in more detail next week if it looks like it could be playing out.

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Key Levels for SPX:
- cautiously bullish above 1063 and bullish above 1200
- bearish below 840

I don't consider the DOW to be as good a proxy for the broader market right now. I see too much evidence of manipulation and interference in its pattern as compared to the others. I will therefore show weekly charts for the DOW to give a sense for some levels to watch but I'm not using it as part of my current daily analysis.

Dow Industrials, INDU, Weekly chart

The DOW has the same pattern as SPX and the new leg down could have the DOW tagging its October 2002 low at 7197 at the same time SPX is tagging its 768 low. Then a bounce into the end of the year (may not amount to much) before a longer-lasting low in the first quarter of 2009.

Key Levels for DOW:
- cautiously bullish above 9800 and bullish above 10500
- bearish below 7880

Nasdaq-100, NDX, Weekly chart

If SPX and DOW manage to drop down their October 2002 lows then I expect NDX will make it down to the lows last seen in 1998 and March 2003 near 940. Because NDX topped out a couple weeks after the DOW and SPX last October its potential turn date by the Fibonacci 55-week turn window is during the week of November 16th. But as depicted, I think it will only be good for a bounce into the new year before turning back down into a longer-lasting low early next year.

Nasdaq-100, NDX, Daily chart

I show the possibility for a big leg up (pink) to the top of its down-channel before turning back down. I have no idea what could spark that kind of rally but if it happens it would be a very good short play setup. Otherwise we should see NDX either continue consolidating in more of a sideways pattern before heading lower again or as mentioned briefly for SPX we could see it chop its way lower in a descending wedge patter over the next couple of weeks.

Key Levels for NDX:
- cautiously bullish above 1520
- bearish below 1368

Russell-2000, RUT, Weekly chart

There's little to add for the RUT's weekly chart--it looks like the others and we should see it head lower before it will be ready for a bigger bounce, in time if not also price.

Key Levels for RUT:
- cautiously bullish above 643
- bearish below 580

Broker index, XBD, Daily chart

With the Fed cutting interest rates and flooding the market with liquidity while the Treasury buys up stock in the financial industry you'd think it would help the brokerage houses but so far nothing. The XBD index remains inside its longer-term down-channel from October 2007. Back then it had peaked out just shy of 269. I think by the time it finds a longer-lasting bottom it will have lost over 80% of its value. But hey, the good news is I think this is close to finding that bottom. The bad news is that it might mean another 40% haircut from its current price.

The Fed is probably not done cutting interest rates and it's interesting to see where rates have come from and where they could be heading, looking at the monthly chart of the 10-year yield:

10-year Yield, TNX, Monthly chart, 1994-2008

From a high of just over 8% back in 1994 the 10-year yield has dropped to about 3.5% and could be headed for 1.6% by the end of next year if I've got the right pattern and it follows its long-term down-channel. The Fib projection for the leg down from the 2007 high is to about 1.6% and that crosses the bottom of its down-channel at the end of January 2010. That's clearly somewhat speculative at this point but if true then buying in the Treasuries will still be strong through next year (and a good place to park your money for now).

With the yield headed lower during this 14-year span, which means prices have rallied, you can well understand why investors in Treasuries have outperformed investors in the stock market. Some individual stocks have clearly been the exception but if you've been in index funds you would have been better to be in a Treasury fund.

U.S. Home Construction Index, DJUSHB, Daily chart

The home builders may be due for a bounce if the little parallel down-channel holds. It's also testing the 2001 low. But I don't think we've seen the final low for this index yet.

The Transports are now in synch with the broader market and therefore its chart isn't telling us anything I haven't already covered. I'll skip its chart tonight in the interest of time.

Commodity Related index, CRX, Monthly chart

The commodity stocks have simply been crushed. I had mentioned over a year ago that when the selling hits it will hit everything. That which was created through the magic of credit creation is thus destroyed by the inevitable credit implosion. Add in a parabolic rally and the "last bubble" and the result seen in this monthly chart should come as no surprise. But by the number of hedge funds that are in serious trouble, because of their blind faith in the idea that commodities had to keep climbing because of the supply-demand curve, I'd say this market has trapped more than a few bulls. I suspect we'll see a complete retracement of the 2003-2008 rally before the decline finds at least a tradable bottom.

As far as commodities go, gold is also considered a safe haven and has held up better (the same cannot be said for oil).

Gold Fund, GLD, Weekly chart

The type of pattern that I see unfolding in gold tells me it will drop lower but not in a straight line. In fact we could be nearing the point where we'll see a big rally in gold before it heads for new lows again. The stock market has been wild but the gold market has been wicked for traders. Both sides are getting whacked but the gold bulls stand by their conviction that one must own gold for the hard times that are coming. I don't argue their logic but I think it will be cheaper to pick up next year.

Oil Fund, USO, Weekly chart

Oil has now retraced more than 78.6% of the rally off the 2007 low at 42.56. That's usually the last line of defense and exceeding that typically means a complete retracement. I'm sure once we get there we'll see more stupid people heading out to buy their favorite land yacht, thinking the oil crisis is over and cheap gas prices have returned for good. It will be a relatively short-term event and they'll get nailed again as the longer-term oil shortage problem kicks back in. But that may not be for a couple of years until we get through the recession (I won't say the 'D' word).

Economic reports, Summary and Key Trading Levels

It's been an extremely light week for economic reports. Today's was the unemployment report which showed an increase in the jobless claims (no surprise) to 478K. This was higher than the expected 465K and slightly higher than last week's 463K. Tomorrow's lone report is Existing Home Sales and is expected to be 4.95M which would be a slight improvement over last week's 4.91M.

Earnings keep coming in hot and heavy and for the most part have been even more disappointing than downwardly revised expectations. It has helped keep the market depressed. But Mr. Softee, MSFT, announced after the bell that they saw a slight gain in 1st quarter profits and sales were better than had been expected. Their stock jumped initially in after-hours trading but then pulled back close to their closing price by the end of after-hours trading. Nasdaq-100 futures went slightly negative after the close.

<u>Roubini Sees Crisis Worsening, Hurting Emerging Markets</u>
Nuriel Roubini has been one of the economists with a more accurate assessment of the credit crisis and its implications on our economy. While he was hopeful about a year ago that we would see the Federal Reserve succeed in helping to solve the credit crunch, he has now turned rather bearish about the prospects for a recovery soon. In fact he's thinking we could see a real breakdown in the financial system (as if it hasn't already happened) and consequently in the stock market. You can listen to his talk (47 minutes including a question and answer period) at the Bloomberg site: http://tinyurl.com/5ulz3w

From the sounds of Roubini's talk he's thinking we could see a true panic-driven market crash from here (which of course begs the question--what the heck have we seen so far?). I'm projecting another leg down for the market for what I think will be a tradable bottom in November (maybe earlier if it happens quickly from here). The potential is for SPX to drop down to about 700 although the October 2002 low near 768 certainly could act as strong support. From the 1044 high on October 14th, a drop down to 700 would be another 33% decline and could certainly qualify for the crash leg that Roubini is forecasting.

I did not listen to Greenspan's testimony before Congress today (which is usually just a circus show) but I understand he was taking some responsibility for what's happening today (how could he not?). He is apparently in a state of "shocked disbelief" about the credit crisis that is unfolding. It's proof to me that people like Greenspan are book smart and common-sense dumb. The "financial engineering" he was so proud of in the early 2000s was very dangerous, and not just in retrospect. There were many, including Buffett, pointing to the huge systemic risk.

All it needed was a Minsky moment and the whole house of cards is collapsing. Greenspan will go down in history as one of the worst, certainly reckless, central bankers we've had. Unfortunately the guidance of the banking system on his watch is what will now cause huge pain for ordinary Americans (and others world wide as they too were playing with the same foolish highly-leveraged investment vehicles). For example, Iceland's government investments became one big highly leveraged hedge fund and are now in dire straits.

I was reading in one of Jeff Cooper's articles recently that Universal Economics identified four previous periods of "financial engineering" in U.S. history. Why we let financial institutions create new ways to lose money is beyond me. The following chart of asset-backed securities shows the extent of the credit creation process:

Asset-Backed Securities Outstanding, data courtesy Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association

The total number is derived from automobile loans, credit card receivables, equipment leases, home equity loans, student loans and loans for building homes. This does not include mortgage-backed securities which has caused round one of the credit collapse. From that list we can expect to see trouble in all of them. Most people who are studying this problem identify construction loans as the next shoe to drop as far as defaults and that could cause a very serious commercial paper credit freeze (worse than it is now).

Universal Economics reported that the average decline for the stock market after each of the previous four periods of financial engineering (which is just another way of saying excessive credit creation) was -45%. But that was the average. The credit expansion this time around completely blew away previous periods. We've seen nothing like what we experienced leading up to the high in 2007. I fully expect the unwinding process to take the stock market well below a 45% decline. It of course won't be a straight line down and it will take some time. It's a matter of how quickly we unwind the credit expansion that will help determine how long it takes before we're back to a stronger footing to launch the next bull market (which will come).

We've been reporting recently what the TED spread has been doing and the good news this week is that it has dropped from a high of 4.64 points on October 10th to a closing level of 2.57 today. This measures the spread between the 3-month LIBOR index and the 3-month Treasuries which are being assisted by global central banks at the moment and may not be truly reflective of the state of the credit market, particularly for the commercial market. Unfortunately the spread between commercial paper and Treasuries continues to widen which tells us all the work the
Fed and Treasury have done (and money they've spent and will spend) hasn't done diddly for the commercial market. Things are Not getting better out there and there's very little the governments can do at this point.

Graphically this commercial market credit spread can be seen in the following chart (the spread is charted inversely so the wider the spread the lower the curve):

Spread between Moody's Corporate Bond Indices BAA and 30-year T-Note, courtesy Elliott Wave International

I've shown this chart before and pointed out that a stock market rally while this credit spread continued to widen was always followed by a continuation of the stock market decline. I see nothing on this chart that tells me I should be looking for a bottom and a buying opportunity. Nothing.

I think the best advice for now, for longer-term investors, is not to do like we're hearing so many doing right now--picking a bottom. Even diehard bears are scurrying in to pick up bargains. If you're a masterful stock picker and can buy with the confidence that not only are you in the right sector but also the right stock and at the right time then by all means have at it. But when talking about the indexes I think we've got new lows coming and then there could be an opportunity for a 1 to 2-month bounce into early 2009 before another leg down to new lows again.

If you want to trade the bounce off the next low it could offer up some nice returns (even as much as a 50% gain off the low). If you're looking for a longer-term investment I think the bargains today will be even better bargains by the end of the 1st quarter of 2009. As Jeff
Cooper recently said, "When there is deafening silence at the bottom, then it will be time to start some buying." In other words, when you no longer hear that this is a bottom and it's a good time to buy, then you'll know we're there.

It will get better but give this market some time to find a longer-lasting bottom. The 2nd mouse gets the cheese--whatever low we find it will be tested weeks to months from that low. That's when we'll look for a longer-term bottom. Be safe and good luck. I'll be back with you next Thursday.

Key Levels for SPX:
- cautiously bullish above 1063 and bullish above 1200
- bearish below 840

Key Levels for DOW:
- cautiously bullish above 9800 and bullish above 10500
- bearish below 7880

Key Levels for NDX:
- cautiously bullish above 1520
- bearish below 1368

Key Levels for RUT:
- cautiously bullish above 643
- bearish below 580


Keene H. Little, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
 


New Plays

New Option Plays

Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
SPW None None
USO    

New Calls

SPX Corp - SPW - close: 43.44 change: -2.72 stop: 39.95

Why We Like It:
The market looks poised to bounce from its lows today. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 index both tested their lows and rebounded. Shares of SPW have also tested its October lows and bounced. This would be a bullish double-bottom pattern if SPW rallied from here. This also provides a relatively lower-risk entry point since we can easily place our stop loss under today's low. We're suggesting calls right here. Our first target is $49.75. Our secondary target is $54.50. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report coming up.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the November calls.

BUY CALL NOV 50.00 SPW-KK open interest=493 current ask $3.50

Picked on October 23 at $ 43.44
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

---

U.S. Oil Fund - USO - close: 56.60 chg: +1.67 stop: 54.45

Why We Like It:
The USO is the oil ETF based off the spot price of West Texas light, sweet crude oil. Oil and the USO have been in a non-stop free fall for the last six weeks. The recent lows mark a $35 move, which corresponds to the first $35 drop that began in July. The $55.00 level was previous resistance many months ago so it should now act as support. If there was ever a place to try and call a bottom on the USO this is a decent spot. There should be no doubt that this is a very speculative play (a.k.a. high risk) but we'll try to limit that risk with a stop loss under today's low. Our first target is $62.50. Our secondary target is $67.50.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the November calls.

BUY CALL NOV 60.00 USO-KL open interest=2960 current ask $3.70
BUY CALL NOV 65.00 USO-KM open interest=1680 current ask $2.15

Picked on October 23 at $ 56.60
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.1 million
 

New Puts

None today.
 

New Strangles

None today.
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Call Updates

CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 43.74 chg: +0.18 stop: 39.90

We were looking for a dip in CSX into the $40.50-40.00 zone. Thursday's market weakness was strong enough to push CSX to $40.69 before the big afternoon bounce back. I do think CSX can bounce from here but we would have preferred a much better entry point and stop loss. We will open bullish positions here with a stop loss at $39.90. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop. Our first target is $49.90. Rivals UNP and BNI both reported earnings today and the results were better than expected, which should bolster the railroad sector.

Picked on October 23 at $ 43.74
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.5 million

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Hansen Natural - HANS - close: 22.88 change: -0.52 stop: 19.90*new*

We are going to update our entry point on HANS. We had been waiting for a dip into the $20.65-20.00 zone but it looks like that may not happen. Shares dipped to last week's support near $21.50 instead and bounced higher. This remains an aggressive play given how wide our stop loss is. We're going to suggest readers buy calls on today's afternoon bounce. We'll use a stop loss at $19.95. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider a stop loss around $21.40 instead. Our first target is $26.85. Our secondary target is $30.00.

Picked on October 23 at $ 22.88
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.6 million

---

iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 48.99 chg: -1.52 stop: 46.45*new*

The small cap Russell 2000 index under performed the rest of the market but managed a bounce near its October lows as we expected. Shares of the IWM slipped to $46.68 before rebounding. Our suggested entry point was $48.50. The play is now open. We are going to tighten up our stop loss to $46.45. We have two targets. Our first target is $54.50, which could be hit in just a few days. Our second target is $58.00, which might take a few weeks.

Picked on October 23 at $ 48.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 123 million

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MasterCard - MA - close: 136.00 chg: - 4.93 stop: 118.99

Our play on MA is working out perfectly. The stock dipped to $130.56 and bounced. Our suggested entry point was a drop into the $131.00-120.00 zone. The play is now open. For the moment we're going to keep our wide, aggressive stop loss at $118.99 because MA can be so volatile. However, more conservative traders will want to strongly consider a tighter stop near $130 maybe $129 instead. We have two targets. Our first target is $158.00. Our second target is $169.50.

Picked on October 23 at $131.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.00
Earnings Date 11/03/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million

---

Energy SPDR - XLE - close: 46.55 chg: +2.35 stop: 37.45

Hmm... we were expecting a dip in the energy sector toward the October lows. Instead the energy sector displayed some relative strength. The XLE traded near $42.30 and then rebounded to a 5% gain. More nimble traders may want to open bullish plays above $47.00. We're going to stick to our $40.50-39.00 entry point for now but we might adjust our entry if we see XLE nearing a breakout past $51.00 instead. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is $45.00. Our second target is $49.75.

Picked on October xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 47.7 million
 

Put Updates

Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 67.80 chg: - 1.85 stop: n/a

Thursday was another incredibly volatile day for both stocks and the VIX. First thing this morning there was a bad tick on the VIX that put the intraday high over 96.00 today. The actual high was closer to 80.00 this afternoon before stocks reversed and the VIX turned lower. Yesterday I suggested that aggressive traders may want to just sell the November 80 calls (or higher strikes) if the VIX nears 80 again. Those Nov. 80 calls were trading around $1.50 late this afternoon. Right now you could sell the 70s for about $2.00. If the VIX closes under these strikes at expiration the calls will expire at zero.

Yesterday we added another spread trade and today's spike higher provided a great entry point to open the position. See the VIX spread update in the strangle section.

We are not suggesting readers buy new puts at this time. With volatility this high the option prices are outrageous.

Note: The VIX options, which are European style options, have a unique expiration date. October VIX options expire on October 22nd, 2008. November VIX options expire on November 19th, 2008. The last day of trading for these options is the Tuesday before expiration. For more information check this link.

Our September 16th put position (suggested entry at 30.30) has a 25.50 target. In all honesty this position may be dead. We still have plenty of time with these next two. The September 29th position (suggested entry at 46.72) has two targets at 36.00 and 31.00. Our October 8th position (entry 57.53) has two targets at 40.00 and 35.00.

Picked on September 16 at = 30.30 first position
Change since picked: +37.50
Picked again Sept. 29 at = 46.72 second position
Changed since picked: +21.08
Picked again Octo. 08 at = 57.53 third position
Changed since picked: +10.27
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = --- million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 67.80 chg: - 1.85 stop: n/a

Another spike to 80.00 on the VIX provided another great entry point to sell some options. We don't see any changes from our previous comments.

Summary:

Please see the CBOE website or our Sunday, October 12th play description for details on margin requires for selling VIX options.

Note: VIX options are European style options that settle for cash at expiration. Furthermore VIX options have unique expiration dates. October options expire on Wednesday, October 22, 2008 and will stop trading on Tuesday, Oct. 21. November options expire on Wednesday, November 19, 2008 and will stop trading on Tuesday, November 18th.

VIX spread #1 has been completed.

VIX spread #2 with November options:

We wanted to SELL the November 30 calls (opening price was $ 8.60) and BUY the November 50 (opening price was $1.61) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated.

In a different format the play is:

SELL CALL NOV 30.00 VIX-KF.
Monday 10/13/08 open 8.60, high 9.80, closed 8.40
Update 10/15/08 open 10.00, high 13.00, closed 13.00
Update 10/16/08 open 13.70, high 16.20, closed 13.25
Update 10/17/08 open 15.55, high 17.70, closed 17.50bid
Update 10/20/08 open 16.30, high 17.20, closed 15.00bid
Update 10/21/08 open -----, high 15.50, closed 14.40bid
Update 10/22/08 open 16.40, high 19.20, closed 18.10bid
Update 10/23/08 open 17.50, high 21.40, closed 20.30bid

-and-
BUY CALL NOV 50.00 VIX-KJ.
Monday 10/13/08 open 1.61, high 2.10, closed 1.50
Update 10/15/08 open 2.00, high 3.60, closed 3.60
Update 10/16/08 open 3.70, high 5.50, closed 3.65
Update 10/17/08 open 4.50, high 5.30, closed 5.50ask
Update 10/20/08 open 3.90, high 5.30, closed 4.40ask
Update 10/21/08 open ----, high 4.70, closed 3.80ask
Update 10/22/08 open 4.30, high 6.60, closed 6.40ask
Update 10/23/08 open 5.70, high 7.70, closed 7.30ask

Picked on October 12 at $ 69.95
Change since picked: - 2.15

-

VIX spread #3 with November options (published 10/22/08):

We wanted to SELL the November 35 calls (10/23/08 opening price was $ 14.00) and BUY the November 60 (10/23/08 opening price was $3.00) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated. We'll fill in the prices Thursday morning. Our account will be credited with the amount for selling the November 35 calls, while it the price paid for the 60 calls will be deducted.

In a different format the play is:

SELL CALL NOV 35.00 VIX-KI
Wednesday 10/22/08 closed at 14.00 bid
Update 10/23/08 open 14.00, high 17.00, closed 15.30bid

-and-
BUY CALL NOV 60.00 VIX-KN
Wednesday 10/22/08 closed at 3.70 ask
Update 10/23/08 open 3.00, high 4.50, closed 4.10ask

Picked on October 12 at $ 69.65
Change since picked: - 1.85
 

Dropped Calls

DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 87.99 change: +2.49 stop: 74.40

The NASDAQ and the Russell small cap index both retested their October lows. The S&P 500 came close. The DJIA was not quite as weak. Maybe that's a sign of relative strength. While I suspect that the market will move higher from here I don't want to chase the afternoon bounce in the DIA. You could but you'd need to put a stop loss under today's low. We're going to remove the DIA from the play list until we see another entry point. Our plan had been to buy calls on a dip into the $80.25-79.00 zone.

Picked on October xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 30 million
 

Dropped Puts

Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 77.27 change: -0.80 stop: 83.05

Target achieved. ATK sold off sharply midday and hit $74.00. Our target to exit was $74.50. The big bounce from the test of its October lows could be considered a bullish double-bottom pattern.

Picked on October 22 at $ 79.75 *target hit 74.50
Change since picked: - 2.48
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 340 thousand

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CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 43.74 change: +0.18 stop: 45.55

It is time to exit our CSX put play. We were aiming for $40.50. The stock dipped to $40.69 and rebounded sharply. Rival railroads BNI and UNP both reported better than expected earnings today. CSX is now a call position in the call section of the newsletter.

Picked on October 21 at $ 45.07 /early exit
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 10/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.9 million

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Ultra Dow30 ProShares - DDM - cls: 33.93 chg: +1.51 stop: 36.30

Target exceeded. The DDM, which is the ultra-long DJIA etf slipped to $29.93 before bouncing back. Our target to exit was the $30.50-30.00 zone. Nimble traders may want to switch to bullish positions here.

Picked on October 21 at $ 34.34 /gap open entry/Target hit 30.50
Change since picked: - 0.41 /originally listed at 36.27
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 6.9 million

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Energizer Holdings - ENR - close: 53.50 chg: -2.35 stop: 61.65

Target achieved. Shares of ENR dipped to $51.03 before bouncing back. Our suggested entry point to exit was the $52.00-50.00 zone.

Picked on October 21 at $ 57.62 /gap down entry/target hit
Change since picked: - 4.12 /originally listed at 58.40
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 838 thousand

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Monsanto - MON - close: 74.91 chg: -3.49 stop: 90.15

It's time to get out of our MON put play. Yesterday the stock hit our first target at $76.00. Today shares dipped to $71.00 before bouncing back. Our secondary target was $70.50. It was a close call but not close enough.

Picked on October 21 at $ 82.10 /gap down entry/1st target hit
Change since picked: - 7.19 /originally listed at 85.38
Earnings Date 12/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.3 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Keene H. Little and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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