Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/29/2010

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Europe Pressures Stocks Again

by Todd Shriber

Click here to email Todd Shriber
In a desperate search for some silver lining, one could say that the end result for the major U.S. indexes was a lot better than the worst levels of the day and that would be true. The S&P 500 peaked below critical support at 1175, the Nasdaq flirted with 2500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below 11,000. All three were able to muster some strength in the middle of the afternoon to close comfortably above those important levels, though all closed in the red.

Market Stats

Once again, it was Europe that roiled U.S. stocks. News of Ireland's $113 billion bailout failed to assuage investors and the reason is simple: The market loves to play the ''who is next'' game. While Greece was a thorn in the side of global markets, investors found a way to move past that situation, at least for a few months.

The problem with Ireland running to the front of the European handout line is that the continent's sovereign debt contagion has been confirmed and all a bailout for Ireland is send traders speculating on the fortunes, or lack thereof, of Portugal. Credit-default swaps used to insure Portuguese government debt against default soared 37 basis points to a record 539 basis points, according to Bloomberg News.

Assuming Portugal needs a bailout, that is when things get really dicey. Greece, Ireland and Portugal are far smaller economies than Spain, Europe's fourth-largest economy. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund have a $993 billion fund in place for European bailouts, according to the German news outlet Speigel. That would be enough to cover the likes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but as Speigel puts it, there could be problems if Spain needs a bailout.

That sent swaps on Spanish government debt higher by almost 29 basis points to 351.5 basis points, Bloomberg reported. That was enough to send the iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund (EWP) lower by almost 3% on volume that was nearly 75% above the daily average. The Spanish word for ugly is ''feo'' and that is exactly what EWP's chart is.

Spain ETF Chart

For the truly adventurous, look beyond Spain and attention shifts to Italy, which is no peach either. A planned sale of about $9 billion in Italian government bonds was less than successful and that sent swaps on Italian debt higher by 28 basis points to 244 basis points, the highest level in six months, Bloomberg reported. I could not find a more current chart, but the one below illustrates where Italian, Portuguese and Spanish swaps traded at in August. All have put in viscous runs to the upside in less than four months.

European Swaps Chart

No surprise here: The euro is suffering mightily, closing below $1.31 against the dollar today for the first time since September. That sent the euro below its 200-day moving average on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows the currency has a tendency to respect its 200-day line. When it moved below that line on the weekly chart in January, it stayed below that level until October.

Translation: There could be more pain in store for the common currency. As I mentioned earlier, traders and investors love to play the ''who is next'' game. When it comes to the euro, it is ''who will be first'' as in what country will be the first to drop out of the euro. Intrade is offering trades on that event taking place before the end this year, next year and several years beyond. One CNBC commentator opined on his blog today that the first country to depart the euro would be Germany sometime next year. If that happens, the euro's fate, already vulnerable, would be all but sealed.

Euro/Dollar Chart

In more pleasant Monday news, the shopping statistics from Black Friday are in and the average shopper spent $365.34 over Thanksgiving weekend, according to the National Retail Federation. That's a 6.4% increase from a year earlier. About 212 million shoppers visited brick and mortar stores or Web sites over the weekend, an increase of 8.7% over 2009's number, NRF said.

Speaking of online shopping, today is Cyber Monday. What was probably first viewed as a gimmick day is now a legitimate metric for evaluating companies with e-commerce exposure, at least for a couple of days. Shoppers spent $407 million online on Thanksgiving Day compared with $318 million a year earlier. On Black Friday, that number jumped to $648 million from $595 million in 2009.

Online Retail Sales

Of course increased online shopping is a boon for companies like Amazon.com (AMZN), one of the kings of the online shopping universe. Amazon was one of the few major Nasdaq stocks to close higher on the day, gaining $2.29, or 1.29%, to close at $179.49 after trading as high as $181.84. That was good for a new all-time high on a split adjusted basis. Hey, perhaps Henry Blodget, the former Merrill Lynch analyst who rode tech stocks all the way to a healthy dose of infamy, has been redeemed.

Not to rain on anyone's Amazon parade, but there is almost no getting around the fact that this is an expensive stock that has booked an eye-popping run since late July. Up about $70 in that time, Amazon trades for almost 73 times current earnings, more than 50 times forward earnings and almost 13 times book value.

On top of that, Amazon faces intense competition in the e-reader market from Apple (AAPL). The iPad does all the things Amazon's Kindle does plus plenty of other things the Kindle cannot do. Not to mention the fact that analysts and investors are concerned that Amazon has slashed the price of the Kindle so low that the company is now losing money on the product.

Amazon Chart

Looking at the charts, the 1175 continues to hold as critical support for the S&P 500 and the index continues to honor the 1175-1200 trading range. It seems like every time the index gets within earshot of 1175, or in Monday's case, dips just beneath that level, buyers immediately step in. Oddly enough, it was financials that played a big part in the late-day salvation for the S&P 500. Energy and materials names also chipped in.

The economic calendar is active this week with two ISM surveys out tomorrow, another on Wednesday along with the Fed Beige Book survey. Various employment reports follow throughout the week leading up to Friday's November jobs report, so the catalysts are in place for the S&P 500 to either breakout or breakdown.

S&P 500 Chart

The situation is much the same on the Dow as traders continue to buy 11,000 and sell 11,200. On a historical basis, this is usually a chipper time of year for stocks, but it is probably safe to assume that in many of the years in which the Dow and S&P 500 moved higher during the holiday season, Europe was not such a pressing concern. If headline risk subsides for a few days, the Dow could make a run back above 11,200.

Dow Chart

I am going to go out on a limb and say I was disappointed with the Nasdaq today given the strength tech stocks had shown coming into this week and the stellar online shopping news. That said, it was a volatile day for the Nasdaq as the index opened around 2535, traded below 2500 and then the buyers stepped in running the Nasdaq back to 2525.

Amazon cannot do all the work on the Nasdaq alone and my guess is it will not have to over the coming weeks, but I will say tech bulls probably wish NILE and OSTK were members of the Nasdaq 100. They are not, but those names were up 5.4% and 8.1% today, respectively. Nasdaq Chart

The Russell 2000 actually held pretty well today, opening around 735 and falling to just above 720, which is above support at 715. Buyers made sure support was not an issue and sent the Russell 2000 back to 732 by the close. A move above resistance at 740 would be a bullish sign.

Russell 2000 Chart

I am of the mind that credit should be given where credit is due and that leads me to point to two important factors for the bulls. First, dips continue to be bought and support on the major indexes continues to be honored. Second, the U.S. consumer is making a comeback and the data is there to support that claim.

Obviously, Europe is the problem the bulls have to contend with. Even if Friday's job report impresses, if the market has to deal with news of a Portuguese, or worse, Spanish default, the jobs number will be glossed over.


New Option Plays

Transportation & Oil Services

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

The market's afternoon rebound was impressive. Traders are still buying the dip in spite of the headlines. FDX and RIG are new plays tonight and both are showing relative strength. I have listed January calls. More aggressive traders could try December calls but Decembers expire in less than three weeks.

In an effort to save some time and get the newsletter out a little bit faster I did not post the company description in the plays tonight. Instead you'll find a link to a company description. Just click on the word "description".

- James


NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 91.59 change: +4.09

Stop Loss: 87.75
Target(s): 94.75, 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
Shares of FDX were upgraded this morning by Credit Suisse and the stock soared to new six-month highs. This move is a bullish breakout past resistance near $90.00 and the rally was powered by strong volume. This could herald a rally toward FDX's 2010 highs and beyond. Instead of chasing the stock at current levels I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $90.25. If triggered we'll use a stop at $87.75. Our first target is $94.75. We will set a secondary, longer-term target at $99.00. FYI: Today's rally has created a new buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, which now points to a $104 target.

FYI: FDX is due to report earnings on Dec. 16th. Holding over earnings is risky. More conservative traders will want to exit ahead of the announcement.

Suggested Position: TRIGGER @ $90.25

Buy the 2011 January $90.00 call (FDX1122A90) current ask $4.85

- or

Buy the 2011 April $95 call (FDX1116D95) current ask $5.00

Annotated Chart:

Entry on November xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 12/16/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on November 29th, 2010


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 68.67 change: +2.16

Stop Loss: 64.75
Target(s): 72.50, 74.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
Crude oil is bouncing in spite of the dollar's strength. Meanwhile, after a four-week consolidation, the oil services sector looks poised to breakout higher. RIG displayed some relative strength today and could lead the group higher. I am suggesting bullish positions now at current levels. We will use a stop loss at $64.75. Our first target is $72.50. Our secondary target is $74.90.

Suggested Position: Buy calls now at current levels.

Buy the 2011 January $70.00 calls (RIG1122A70) current ask $3.15

Annotated Chart:

Entry on November 30th at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million
Listed on November 29th, 2010


In Play Updates and Reviews

Afternoon Rebound & Potential Entry Point

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

The market's weakness this morning was strong enough to hit one of our triggers. It also hit a couple of stops. I am also adjusting our entry point on CSX and UNP. Plus, the action in NKE looks like another entry point.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 83.67 change: -0.46

Stop Loss: 79.90
Target(s): 84.85, 89.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 5.7% & +12.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: CAT dipped toward its 10 and 20-dma before paring its losses into the closing bell. The low was only $82.55. I have been suggesting readers buy calls on dips near $82.00. Aggressive traders could use this afternoon bounce as another entry point. We only have three weeks left before December options expire. If you do launch new positions I would buy January calls.

Earlier Comments
Our first target is $84.85. We want to exit the majority of our position here. We'll set a secondary target at $89.50 but again I warn you the $85 level should be tough resistance.

Current Position:
Long the December $85 calls (symbol: CAT1018L85)
Entry @ $1.40

Double Down
New Position: Buy the December $85 calls (CAT1018L85), current ask $1.17

Entry on November 9th at $ 81.75
Earnings Date 01/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million
Listed on November 6th, 2010


CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. - CHRW - close: 73.52 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 70.75
Target(s): 74.90, 79.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +11.1%, and +21.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: The widespread market weakness this morning pushed CHRW toward short-term support near $73.00. The correction may not be over yet but over the weekend I suggested readers look for a dip into the $73-72 zone as our next entry point. I don't see any changes from my previous comments.

Previous Comments:
When CHRW hits $74.90 we'll exit all of our December calls. We also want to sell part of our January calls at $74.90 but keep a position open for our secondary $79 target.

Current Position:
Long the December $75.00 calls (CHRW1018L75) Entry @ $0.45

- or -

Current Position:
Long the January $75.00 calls (CHRW1122A75) Entry @ $1.15

11/27: New stop @ 70.75, new first target at $74.90

Entry on November 22nd at $72.44
Earnings Date 02/03/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on November 18th, 2010


Cliffs Natural Resources - CLF - close: 68.98 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 64.75
Target(s): 71.50, 74.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: Commodity stocks were struggling this morning but the group turned around by late afternoon. CLF almost made it back into positive territory. The low was $67.14. I have been suggesting readers buy calls on dips in the $66-65 zone but more aggressive traders may want to go ahead and buy calls on this bounce today. Our first target is $71.50.

Keep in mind that December options expire in three weeks!

Current Position:
Long the 2010 December $70.00 CALL, Entry @ $2.42

Entry on November 12th @ 67.00
Earnings Date 02/17/11
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
Listed on November 1, 2010


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 66.97 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 63.90
Target(s): 69.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 73.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
11/29 update: There were plenty of headlines regarding Black Friday sales today. Overall the general impression has been positive for sales but we didn't set any records this past weekend. Shares of COST dipped to $66.33 before bouncing late in the session. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but another rebound in the $65 zone might change my mind on new entries. Our target to exit is $69.50. Keep in mind that December options expire in three weeks.

I also want to remind readers that COST is due to report earnings on December 9th and cautious traders do not want to hold over this event.

Earlier Comments
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Current Position:
December $65.00 calls (symbol: COST1018L65)
Option Entry @ $1.50

Entry on November 8th at $64.50
Earnings Date 12/09/10
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on November 6th, 2010


CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 61.78 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 59.49
Target(s): 64.25, 67.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
11/29 update: Hmm... we have a decision to make here. With the markets in sell-off mode this morning CSX only dipped to $60.77 before bouncing. Our trigger to buy calls is at $60.75. If short-term panic is not going to push CSX lower, what will? Do we decide to wait for the dip closer to $60.00 or do we look for a breakout past $62.00 instead?

I am suggesting we go ahead and wait for the dip. As a matter of fact I'm lowering our trigger to $60.50 and our stop loss to $59.49. We can always re-evaluate if CSX breaks out higher.

Trigger to buy-the-dip @ $60.25

Suggested Position: Buy the 2011 January $60 calls (CSX1122A60)

Entry on November xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
Listed on November 23rd, 2010


CenturyLink, Inc. - CTL - close: 42.90 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 41.45
Target(s): 44.90, 47.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -25.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: Bingo! We did not have to wait long for CTL to hit our trigger. The market's weakness this morning pushed CTL to an intraday low of $42.22. Our trigger to buy calls was $42.55. If you missed the entry point I would still consider positions now on the bounce or you can wait for a breakout past $43.00.

FYI: Investors should know that CTL is currently involved with a $10.6 billion stock-swap merger with Qwest Communications (Q). The merger isn't supposed to be completed until the first half of 2011. The trend for both stocks is up and naturally looks very similar following the M&A announcement.

Current Position:
Long the 2011 January $45.00 calls (CTL1122A45) Entry @ 0.20

Entry on November 29th at $42x55
Earnings Date 02/22/11
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on November 27th, 2010


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 52.80 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 49.65
Target(s): 53.95, 57.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +16.3%, and +12.3%
Time Frame: 5 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, wait for a dip

Comments:
11/29 update: ESRX dipped to $51.66 before rebounding. Shares displayed some relative strength with a +0.5% gain for the day. I have been suggesting new bullish positions in the $52-51 zone so if you missed the dip this morning you could always buy calls on this bounce. Keep your position size small. Our first target to take profits is at $53.95. I'm setting a secondary target at $57.25.

We currently only have half a position open.

Don't forget - December options expire in three weeks.

Current Position:
Long the 2010 December $52.50 calls (ESRX1018L52.5) Entry @ $1.22
- or -
Current Position:
Long the 2011 January $52.50 calls (ESRX1122A52.5) Entry @ $2.10

Entry on November 18th at $51.81
Earnings Date 02/24/11
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
Listed on November 17th, 2010


W.W. Grainger Inc. - GWW - close: 125.06 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 122.95
Target(s): 129.90, 134.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -28.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
11/29 update: GWW dipped toward technical support at its rising 40-dma again. I would still consider new positions here but readers may want to wait for a little more confirmation (like a rally past $126 or $127).

FYI: The stock could see a little short squeeze since the most recent data listed short interest at more than 5% of the 58.5 million share float (which isn't very big as far as floats go). FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $140 target.

Current Position:
Long the 2011 January $130 calls (GWW1122A130) Entry @ $2.50

Entry on November 24th at $126.75
Earnings Date 01/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 567 thousand
Listed on November 22nd, 2010


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 56.40 change: -0.39

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.75, 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -10.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: HUM's rival UNH announced that they expect 2011 profits to slide lower and yet shares of UNH surged to a +1.9% gain on the session. Meanwhile HUM dipped toward support near $55.00 and its 50-dma but managed a strong rebound to recoup most of its losses. I have been suggesting readers buy dips in the $56-55 zone so we got that dip today. If you missed it I would still buy calls on this bounce. I am suggesting we sell half of our position at $59.75 and then plan on selling the rest with a target at $64.00.

11/22/10 New stop @ 53.75
11/22/10 New (2nd) target at $64.00

Current Position:
Long the 2011 January $55 calls (HUM1122A55) Entry @ $3.80

Entry on November 18th at $55.05
Earnings Date 11/01/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on October 16th, 2010


Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 85.16 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 81.45
Target(s): 86.75, 89.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 35.6%, and + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/29 update: If you were looking for another entry point we got it today. I have been suggesting that readers look for a dip near $84.00 and that's exactly what NKE did. The market's widespread weakness pushed NKE toward support near $84.00 and shares managed a nice rebound in the afternoon. I'm going to list a secondary entry point for the newsletter at current levels (if you bought January calls this morning you have a better entry point). Our final target for the December position remains $89.50. December options only have three weeks left. We will consider a higher target for the January calls.

Current Position:
Long the December $85.00 CALLS (symbol:NKE1018L85) Entry @ $1.15

- or -

(Second position)
Current Position:
Long the January $85.00 CALLS (symbol:NKE1122A85) current bid $3.00 (entry will be Tues. morning)

11/29/10 Buy the bounce from $84.00 11/24/10 Target hit @ 86.75, option @ $2.60 (+126%)

Chart:

Entry on November 11th at $83.00
Earnings Date 12/21/10
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on November 6th, 2010


Nucor Corp. - NUE - close: 37.62 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 36.85
Target(s): 40.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 9.3% and +17.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
11/29 update: NUE opened at $37.38 but quickly dipped toward support near $37.00 before rebounding. If you missed the dip this morning I would still consider buying the bounce this afternoon. There is no change from my weekend comments.

Our target is the $40.00 level. More aggressive traders could aim for the $41 region.

Current Position:
Buy the 2011 January $37.00 calls (NUE1122A37) Entry @ $1.72
- or -
Buy the 2011 January $40.00 calls (NUE1122A40) Entry @ $0.61

Entry on November 29th at $37.38
Earnings Date 01/26/11
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
Listed on November 27th, 2010


Union Pacific - UNP - close: 90.65 change: +0.55

Stop Loss: 88.99
Target(s): 96.25, 99.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/29 update: I found the action in UNP encouraging. In spite of the fears this morning shares of UNP only dipped toward last week's low and traders quickly bought the pullback. I am suggesting we go ahead and launch bullish positions now instead of waiting for a breakout. We'll adjust our stop loss to $87.90, which is about 50 cents under today's low. Everything else is unchanged.

Open positions now at current levels!

Suggested Position:
Buy the 2011 January $95 calls (UNP1122A95) current ask $1.75

Chart:

Entry on November 30th at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/20/11
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on November 20th, 2010


VimpelCom Ltd - VIP - close 15.49 change +0.09

Stop Loss: 14.90
Target(s): 16.75, 17.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -38.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on dips

Comments:
11/29 update: It was a quiet day for VIP in spite of the market's volatility. The stock traded inside Friday's range. I suspect VIP will churn sideways until its earnings report this Thursday. There is no change from my weekend comments.

More conservative traders do not want to hold over this report. I am raising the risk on this play by holding over the announcement.

If you choose to launch positions be sure to keep your position size small to limit your risk (and consider January options).

I want to emphasize that holding over VIP's earnings is higher-risk. If the stock crashes on its earnings report our position could get wiped out since December options only have three weeks left!

Current Position:
December $15.00 CALLS, Entry @ $1.05

11/27/10 new stop @ 14.90

Entry on November 8, 2010 @ 15.60
Earnings Date 11/24/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
Listed on November 3, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Ansys, Inc. - ANSS - close: 48.05 change: -0.83

Stop Loss: 47.25
Target(s): 52.45, 54.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: -50.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
11/29 update: ANSS underperformed the market on Monday. Both the major indices and ANSS spiked lower at the open but ANSS settled with a -1.69% loss. Shares managed to bounce from the bottom of its trading range near $47.00. Unfortunately, I wasn't planning on seeing ANSS dip that low and shares hit our stop loss at $47.25 closing this trade. Readers may want to keep ANSS on their watch list for a breakout past resistance near $49.00.

Closed Position: Long the 2011 January $50.00 calls (ANSS1018L50) Entry @ $1.50, exit @ $0.75 (-50%)

Chart:

Entry on November 24th at $48.75
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand
Listed on November 13th, 2010


McKesson Corp. - MCK - close: 64.26 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 63.75
Target(s): 67.95, 70.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -35.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
11/29 update: MCK final settlement left shares with a 7-cent loss but the stock slipped to $63.50 intraday. I am willing to admit that our stop loss was just a little too tight. We would have done better with a stop in the $63.40 area. Of course I was already concerned with MCK's performance and said so this weekend. Readers could keep MCK on their watch list for a breakout above this bearish trend of lower highs. Our current trade has been stopped out at $63.75.

Closed Position: Long the 2011 January $65 calls (MCK1122A65) Entry @ $3.10, Exit @ $2.00 (-35.4%)

Chart:

Entry on November 22nd at $65.95
Earnings Date 01/26/11
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
Listed on November 20th, 2010