Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 5/2/2013

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Rate Cut Lifts Market

by Thomas Hughes

Click here to email Thomas Hughes
Introduction

This morning started with positive futures trading following yesterday's retreat. An expected announcement from the ECB, U.S. employment data and earnings were all on tap. Asian shares had a mildly negative day, falling on slow growth concerns. The negative sentiment was not echoed in Europe, where traders eagerly awaited an expected interest rate cut. News as expected from Europe and a surprisingly good unemployment claims report helped the U.S. indexes at least to advance the mornings small gains. By days end both the European and U.S. markets had made a nice advance.


Commodity prices remain volatile. Gold continued it's trek back up from hitting its recent lows. Oil made a big intraday move, about 1%, but remains in the range we have seen over the past few months. Natural gas inventories were bearish and led those prices lower by nearly a percent. There is a huge rotation going on and commodities are one area being impacted. What I am hearing and reading is leading me to believe that the “sell in may and go away” attitude may be out of place this year.

It was also another big day for earnings. The sheer number of companies reporting, if not the names themselves, made it so. GM was biggest name that jumped out at me as an individual company but I/b> also noticed several gold companies as well. A glance at the charts, keeping in mind the recent low prices of gold, suggests that the prices of gold companies have not yet hit their lows. Even if gold prices remain where they are now they are still at multi-year lows and will negatively impact future earnings for these companies.

The Economy

There was actually a lot of data today. On top of the weekly unemployment claims figures there was also Challenger job cut estimates, productivity and unit labor costs. Even though today's economic roster did include one of the big two, ADP or NFP, the data is still very important to the overall picture. This week is unique in the monthly cycle of data because we get to see week to week economic data and monthly macro economic data at the same time.

Today is also unique because everything was released at the same time, 8:30. I'll start the barrage with my weekly favorite, initial claims. First time claims for unemployment fell by -18,000 to hit a +5 year low. This surprise drop was off set by a +3,000 revision to last week's data but still resulted in a net drop of -15,000. The four week moving average of claims also fell, shedding -16,000 to hit 342,250. This is the third week of declines in initial claims and the first week that the March spike has not been included in the moving average. This drop is a good sign, if less people are filing for unemployment the perhaps less people are getting laid off. At this time the trend in claims is down, lets see if it continues.


The Challenger numbers also support a market in which less people are being laid off. The Challenger survey revealed that the number of planned lay-offs dropped -24% in April. This follows a gain of +30% in March from February. On a year over year basis the April number of expected lay-offs was down 6% from last April and retreating from high levels seen earlier in the year.

Continuing claims data for last week was revised up and this weeks figure is another gain on top of that. Despite this double bump in claims the number of continuing claims is still at 5 year lows and trending down. After seeing this weeks number of initial claims I also expect to see continuing claims drop again in the next week or two. At this time the decline is very gradual but there is a definite down trend in continuing claims.


Total claims, which is not revised, dropped by over 100,000 this week to hit a new 6 month low. The total number of claims for unemployment dropped to 4.963, falling below 5 million for the first time since last November. This level is also very near to a five year low set the same time last November. On a year over year basis the total number of claims has fallen more than 24.7%. This pace is about the quickest I have noted this year and is expanding. Unemployment claims, as whole, are in decline. Whether this is a sign of less firing, more hiring or just plain less people participating is complicated. Some of all those factors are in play. The official unemployment rate, reported tomorrow, is expected to show a gain of +0.1%. Based on the down trending unemployment claims and drop in Challenger survey results I think that may be too cautious an estimate. Consensus estimates for the official unemployment rate are for a gain of +0.1% to 7.7%. The consensus for the Non-Farm Payrolls is for a gain of 145,000.


Non-farm unit labor costs and productivity were also released at 8:30 AM. Both numbers increased. Productivity increased by a weak +0.7% but is a reversal of the previous months -1.7% decline. This tepid increase in productivity could lead employers to hire, according to one article I read. If so it is one more argument on the side of lower unemployment. Unit labor costs also rose, but not as much as expected. Costs rose only +0.4%, much smaller than the previous months increase of 4.4%.

Today's Spotlight: The ECB

The ECB stole the show today with a semi surprise cut in its key interest rate. I say semi surprise because even though there was talk of a cut, and I include myself, I don't think anyone seriously thought it was coming. The ECB cut the rate by a quarter point to 0.5%. This is the first cut since July of last year and not enough according to some pundits. The ECB has been behind the rest of the world in it's efforts to stimulate growth and still has a 25 basis points to go before matching the efforts of the FOMC. Their lack of earlier effort may be good enough now, even with the somber tone to Draghi's comments. He says that there is still weakness in the EU and that it will continue into the spring. Policy will remain accommodating. The euro sold off after the release and statements, counter to earlier price action this week. The EUR/USD was bouncing off the short term moving average but hit resistance yesterday. A pin bar formed and was today confirmed as a shooting star. Bearish long term momentum is matched by a near term bearish divergence. My downside target on this pair are 1.2880 and 1.2750.

EUR/USD Daily

Gold, Gold Stocks, The Gold Index

Gold traded to the upside today following the ECB announcement. The gain brings the price of gold back to near break even for the week. Gold has been trading sideways for about a week since the recent bounce ran out of steam just under the $1500 level. The Gold Index has also been trending sideways. However, where gold has retraced more than half of the drop from $1600 to $1300 the Gold Index has only retraced 38.2% before meeting resistance. It has since fallen back to the 23.6% retracement level and looks like it is caught between the two, at least for now. The price of gold will lead the index, but only to a certain extent. The earnings potential of the gold stocks is severely hampered by low gold prices so I think we can expect to see more selling in that sector.

Gold Index

I glanced around through the list of gold stocks and came up with the same answer in each case. There is some variation from stock to stock but the theme among them all is downtrend. At least three gold miners reported earnings today. Goldcorp, Randgold and Royal Gold. Goldcorp's report says it all. The gold producer sold 9% more gold this year than last year in the same period and earned 38% less on a per share basis. The stock could not decide which way it wanted to go today. It is currently in a downtrend but above potential support. Long term technicals are also bearish but suggest that some support may exist around $27.50. If gold prices do not pick up Goldcorp's earnings potential is going to suffer further setbacks. A break below the $27.50 level could take the stock down around the $25 level or lower.

Goldcorp

Royal Gold's report was even worse. The company reported a near 75% drop in revenue and earnings. The chart reflects this decline. The stock gapped down below support in tandem with the drop in gold prices last month. Now, it is consolidating in a sideways pattern. The recent bearish peak in MACD suggest that the recent lows will at least be retested if not broken through.

Royal Gold

Other Earnings Of Interest

GM beat estimates and provided positive guidance. Strength in the U.S. offset known weakness in the European segment and helped to produce better than expected net results. Even though weak, the European segment did show some improvements. The company reported earnings of $0.67 per share, far outpacing expected earnings for $0.51. Even including a $0.09 cent charge earnings are still beyond expectation. One gray cloud was the possibility of a slowing U.S. car market. As I look at the charts I say to myself, wow. I am immediately drawn to a head&shoulders on the MACD coincident with the tombstone/pin bar signal created by today's price action. Some investors were happy with the news and sought to buy in, others were happy with the news as well and started selling in force when prices hit the daily high. Today's high is near a resistance level set in 2011 and long term technical indicators are also divergent.

GM

AIG reported after the bell. The market for this stock was bullish going into the close of trading, the reported $1.34 versus the expectations of $0.88 per share. Revenue did not meet estimates but that is not surprising. The stock has been trending up for the last 6 months and ended the day near long term resistance. The stock popped in the after hours market and punched right through long term resistance.

AIG

The Semiconductor Index

The Semiconductor Index made a new 2 year high as it approaches resistance at $450. Two major chip makers, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices are both moving up after breaking out of a five bottom in the chip sector. Both stocks are approaching resistance that could limit gains in the near term. These levels may coincide with the SOX reaching $450. Long term MACD is bullish, weak and divergent as price approaches resistant. In the near term MACD is strong but could be peaking. It is possible the Semiconductor index could rally and break through resistance but that moved could be capped as INTC and AMD approach their own resistance levels.

Semiconductor Index

Intel has a lead on AMD in terms of their respective breakouts. This stock has been rallying for about a month and broke out of its bottom about 2 weeks ago. MACD and stochastic are both strong and the stock has some room to move before reaching resistance. A consolidation here or even a pullback would help alleviate near term overbought conditions and help it to move up to the top of the range. The SOX breaking out to a new high may assist this move and attract new players to this market. Upside resistance is around $25 at this time with a secondary line drawn at $25.50.

Intel

The S&P 500

The S&P bounced back from yesterday's sell off to make a new all time high. The market was almost in stealth mode today. Nothing really exciting happened in the pre-market. Even the ECB rate did not move futures that much. In fact, futures had come off their highs following the reported rate cut. After the open the market was very quiet. The S&P traded in a very tight range for the first half hour, less than three points. Then, a little after 10 AM the index started to creep up and began moving toward the day's high. After pondering why this would happen, before the NFP number tomorrow, I came up with this. Now that the ECB has lowered its rates we have all central banks on board with global financial support. The FOMC is supporting the U.S. markets with $85 billion in bond and asset purchases each month, the BOJ is supporting, re-inflate is more appropriate a term, it's economy with “aggressive” and “unlimited” easing and money printing policies aimed at increasing inflation to 2% within 2 years. The ECB has been the long hold out on QE. It has now re-entered the fight.

SPX 30 Minute Bars

The SPX reached a new all time high today but still did not breach the round number resistance of 1600. The ECB news was good but is it enough? It is good for the central banks to support the economy, we still need help, but is this the right help? Will the long term implications be worse than the symptoms they are trying to cure? With the SPX at this crucial psychological level the NFP could be a real market moving event. A surprising drop could spark a round of fear based selling but I think it might not matter as much as it gets hyped. Last month's surprise drop helped get perspective in check. Near term support exists at 1580 and 1572, as for the upside a break of 1600 would be bullish.

SPX Daily

The Transportation average also traded higher today but did not regain as much ground as the S&P. It was halted at the top of the triangle range it has been in the last two months. This pattern is not great for predicting market direction but is great for predicting targets once a confirmed breakout occurs. The first target would be equal to the height of the triangle, in the direction of the break, from the point of break out.

This triangle has a high density of long black bars relative to the last 12 months which is a negative but not a definative indicator of direction. The long term MACD is weakly bearish, the near term weakly bullish. It looks like it could go either way.

Dow Jones Transportation Average Daily

Today was a big day but tomorrow could be bigger. Today brought the market to new all time highs but tomorrow could break us out into a new rally. Or it could come and go like so many other Friday's. The NFP is a highly anticipated report and its number is revealing. However, it is not the only thing driving the markets. The real question is what do CEO's, investors and traders think the economy and corporate earnings are going to be like next week, next month and next quarter. At this time the economy is stabilizing, the worlds central banks are working in synch to support financial systems, earnings are growing even if revenue is not and the long term labor outlook is improving. 1600 is my line to watch on the S&P 500. It may prove the level at which the bears begin to show themselves or it could mark the start of a new rally.

Until then, remember the trend!

Thomas Hughes


New Option Plays

Near 52-Week Lows

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

Domtar Corp. - UFS - close: 67.48 change: -0.48

Stop Loss: 70.05
Target(s): 62.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
UFS is a Canadian paper and paper products manufacturer. The company recently reported earnings (on April 25th) and investors were unhappy with the news. Wall Street was expecting $1.43 a share. UFS missed the estimate by 14 cents. They also missed the revenue estimate. Shares sold off hard with a breakdown to new 52-week lows. Management has tried to soften the blow by raising their quarterly dividend by 22% from 45 cents to 55 cents but it's not helping. UFS underperformed the market again today.

Shares found support this week near $67.00. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $66.75. If triggered our target is $62.50.

Trigger @ 66.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $65 PUT (UFS1322R65) current ask $2.25

Annotated Chart:

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 448 thousand
Listed on May 02 2013



In Play Updates and Reviews

Traders Buy The Dip

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

There was no follow through on yesterday's market pullback. The S&P 500 managed to erase yesterday's loss.

Our WYN trade was stopped out.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

L Brands, Inc. - LTD - close: 50.35 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in mid-May
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/13: LTD continues to churn sideways. Shares did add +0.4% but that lagged behind the major indices. We're still waiting on a move higher.

At the moment I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $50.85. If triggered our target is $54.50 but we do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. This trade may only last a couple of weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LTD is bullish with a $68 target.

Trigger @ 50.85

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $50 call (LTD1322F50)

Entry on April -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
Listed on April 27 2013


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 64.66 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 63.90
Target(s): 69.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -25.8%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings in late May
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: Uh-oh! The action in ROST today was definitely disappointing. Shares fell toward $64 and short-term technical support at its 10-dma. Meanwhile the retail sector and the major market indices rebounded higher. That's not a great sign for our bullish play here. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $67.50 call (ROST1322F67.5) entry $1.55

05/01/13 new stop loss @ 63.90

Entry on April 26 at $65.25
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on April 25 2013


PUT Play Updates

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 89.55 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 92.05
Target(s): 85.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on May 9th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: AGU continues to underperform the broader market. Shares dipped to $87.92 intraday. The stock was bouncing back off its lows this morning but failed to close back above the $50.00 level, which is now round-number resistance.

Keep in mind that we plan to exit prior to the earnings report on May 9th. I would keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Earlier Comments:
The Point & Figure chart for AGU is bearish with an $82 target.
NOTE: AGU could see some volatility when investors react to earnings from its rivals. CF reports on May 8th.

Trigger @ 89.75 *Small Positions*

- Suggested Positions -

buy the May $90 PUT (AGU1318Q90) entry $2.45

Entry on May 01 at $89.75
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on April 23 2013


Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 105.59 change: +1.05

Stop Loss: 106.75
Target(s): 96.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/13: Biotech stocks followed the NASDAQ higher. AMGN rallied right at the open but shares did roll over midday. We are waiting on a breakdown to new relative lows.

Tuesday's low was $103.85. More aggressive traders could buy puts now but I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $103.65. If triggered our target is $96.00. However, more conservative traders may want to exit near $100 since it's possible the $100 level could prove to be round-number support.

Trigger @ 103.65

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $100 PUT (AMGN1322R100)

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on April 30 2013


Hittite Microwave Corp. - HITT - close: 54.87 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 55.75
Target(s): 50.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/13: HITT eked out a +0.5% gain and spent most of the day drifting sideways.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $54.00. If triggered our target is $50.25.

Trigger @ 54.00

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $55 PUT (HITT1322R55) current ask $2.35

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 164 thousand
Listed on May 01 2013


S&P500 ETF - SPY - close: 159.75 change: +1.47

Stop Loss: 160.50
Target(s): 150.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -21.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: Dip buyers rushed in to buy yesterday's pullback and the SPY managed to erase all of yesterday's -$1.40 decline. The key tomorrow will be the jobs report and how market participants choose to interpret the jobs data that comes out Friday morning before the opening bell. The jobs news will either push the SPY through resistance at 160 or spark another reversal lower.

Earlier Comments:
I want to reiterate that this is an aggressive entry point. The market's trend is still up. We are essentially speculating on a top at 1600 (160 on the SPY). Our stop loss remains at $160.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $155 PUT (SPY1322R155) entry $2.15

05/01/13 trigger @ 158.50
04/30/13 adjust entry trigger to $158.50
replaced the May put with a June put as the suggested option.
04/29/13 adjust entry trigger to $157.50
04/23/13 adjust strategy: new trigger @ $157.00,
new stop loss @ 160.50, new target @ 150.25
adjust option strike to 2013 May $155 put

Entry on May 01 at $158.50
Average Daily Volume = 130 million
Listed on April 18 2013


VMware, Inc. - VMW - close: 71.40 change: +0.95

Stop Loss: 72.85
Target(s): 62.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/13: VMW is trying to bounce from support near $70.00 and managed a +1.3% gain.

We are waiting on a breakdown lower. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $69.75. If triggered our target is $62.50. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for VMW is bearish with a $42 target.

Trigger @ 69.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $67.50 PUT (VMW1322R67.5)

Entry on April -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on April 27 2013


Vertex Pharma. - VRTX - close: 77.72 change: +0.89

Stop Loss: 80.50
Target(s): 66.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -23.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: VRTX opened lower at $76.30 and then bounced. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $76.00 before initiating new put positions. Meanwhile nimble traders could look for a failed rally near $80.00 as an alternative entry point to buy puts.

Earlier Comments:
The old 2012 highs were near $65.00. This could be new support. We will aim for $66.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $75 PUT (VRTX1322R75) entry $3.60

Entry on May 02 at $76.30
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
Listed on May 01 2013



Longer-Term Play Updates



Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. - CBI - close: 53.63 change: +1.34

Stop Loss: 49.25
Target(s): 62.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: July's: + 4.5% or Jan's: + 1.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: The stock market's widespread bounce today helped CBI to a 2.5% gain. Shares remain inside the $52-54 trading range. That could change tomorrow. CBI reported earnings tonight, after the closing bell. Results were seven cents better than the 75-cent estimate. Revenues soared +87% from a year ago to $2.25 billion, which was also better than the estimate. Assuming the market doesn't reverse on disappointing jobs numbers tomorrow then we could see CBI breakout past $54.00.

Please review our original play description on this page here.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2013 Jul $55 call (CBI1320G55) Entry $2.20*

- or -

Long 2014 Jan $60 call (CBI1418A60) Entry $2.90*

*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Entry on April 22 at $51.53
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on April 20 2013


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Wyndham Worldwide Corp. - WYN - close: 61.37 change: +1.24

Stop Loss: 61.55
Target(s): 56.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -60.7%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/13: The combination of an up market and positive earnings news from rival Marriott helped push WYN to a +2.0% gain. The intraday high was just enough to hit our stop loss at $61.55.

I am not convinced the correction is over and would not be surprised to see this bounce fail near $62 and its 50-dma.

- Suggested Positions -

May $60 PUT (WYN1318Q60) Entry $1.40 exit $0.55 (-60.7%)

05/02/13 stopped out

chart:

Entry on May 01 at $59.75
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on April 29 2013