Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 7/10/2013

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Confusion Surrounding FOMC Minutes

by Keene Little

Click here to email Keene Little
A sign of disagreement among Fed heads sparked nervousness in the stock market but Bernanke provided some relief after-hours. The day's doji is a sign of indecision following a strong rally.

Market Stats

There was nothing in this morning's economic reports to move the market and in fact there wasn't much of anything to move the market all day until we got the FOMC minutes this afternoon. Yesterday afternoon's consolidation was followed by more consolidation during the overnight session and that continued into today. The market pulled back but there wasn't anything especially bearish about what it was doing. It continues to look constructive for the bulls.

At 2:00 PM the FOMC minutes were released and that caused a spike up to a new daily high for the indexes but it looked more like a short-covering reaction rather than something more bullish. Following the jerk to the upside the market then sold off and retraced the spike up. But it was all small stuff -- SPX spiked less than 8 points before giving it all back, giving up about 10 points before climbing back up a little into the close. The day finished with a small doji candle (doji star).

Part of the problem was that the FOMC minutes showed the Fed heads hardly in agreement, which comes as no surprise since we've been hearing different messages from Bernanke and then the back-pedaling by Fed governors. Some examples from the minutes:
-- Fed says several on FOMC saw tapering likely warranted soon
-- Fed says many on FOMC said labor gains needed before taper
-- Fed says FOMC saw fiscal policy restraining economic growth
-- Half of the Fed indicated it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year (instead of slowing purchases)
-- A few participants indicated that the committee should slow or stop its purchases at the June meeting

The key is that a tapering of asset purchases appears to be coming soon and as usual it's all data-dependent. Few believe the Fed will make any kind of sudden halt to asset purchases this year but certainly the fear of tapering is going to have most thinking the market can't survive without more purchases and any tapering will pull liquidity out of the market. Liquidity has already been drying up and if the Fed pulls back it's going to only get worse. Liquidity is to the market what oil is to an engine and blood is to us.

Perhaps most important, with half the Fed saying asset purchases should be stopped by the end of 2014 (not just tapered), we are seeing signs of a full blown mutiny in the Fed. This will be part of the process whereby the market loses faith in the Fed and once that starts to happen there will be little to hold the market up. Faith in the Fed is the only thing that has been holding the market up in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and company earnings.

After today's market closed Bernanke then spoke in Cambridge, Massachusetts to discuss the central bank's 100-year history. The speech obviously included some more "what I meant to say" and the after-hours futures market was relieved to hear he's not going to take away the spiked punch bowl anytime soon. Equity futures bolted higher, making new highs above this afternoon's, and the dollar sank further, indicating fear of more monetization efforts to come.

One sign of deteriorating company earnings, and possibly a reason why the Fed is immediately backing away from anymore taper talk, was reported by Reuters this morning. They mentioned 122 S&P 500 companies have thus far issued earnings pre-announcements. Significantly, the ratio of negative-to-positive pre-announcements is 6.5-to-1, which is the largest percentage of negative readings since 2001. This was of course near the bottom of the decline from 2000 whereas today we're at the top of a long-in-the-tooth rally.

Even with the earnings bar so low that a snake could crawl over it we're still getting earnings warnings. There's a good chance the Fed is fully aware of this and therefore backing away from any thoughts of draining any liquidity from the market. I've been of the opinion that we'll see the Fed Increase asset purchases long before they back off on purchases.

As we've seen many times in the past, the bulk of the rally from the June 24th low has occurred during the overnight session in the futures market. We've seen several gaps to the upside but not much follow through after that. In fact it has looked more like a distribution pattern -- gap it up to create some liquidity as the cash market catches up and use the liquidity to sell into. I have little doubt that that's exactly what some of the big hedge funds are doing. Following the upside gaps we've seen consolidations, pullbacks and maybe a push back to the highs of the day before the close, rinse and repeat.

The SPY daily chart shows the results of this gap-up-consolidate pattern with a bunch of doji's for the day's candlesticks. It's one of the stranger rallies we've seen and it fits well for the final leg of the rally. Also note the significant decline in volume as the rally has progressed. I see a little more upside potential but now I'm cautioning traders to be very careful about being in long positions.

S&P 500 ETF, SPY, Daily chart

The question now is whether or not the rally from the June low has finished, or will finish this week, or if there will be an effort to push it higher into opex week. A couple of indexes, the RUT and BKX included, have already achieved new highs for the year but will they be left alone in doing so? We could be in a similar pattern of previous major highs, such as the 2007 high which saw a momentum high in July and a minor new high with bearish divergence at the October high. A May momentum high followed by a weaker minor new high (or lower high) in July would be a repeat and the top should be just as significant as the 2007 high. This pattern calls for a final high by the end of next week (opex) and until the bears can do something soon I continue to expect this minor new high scenario to play out.

Showing a quick loss of fear in the stock market, following the high in VIX that coincided with the June low in the stock market, it has quickly deflated and is now back below its 50- and 200-dma's, at 15.26 and 15.06, resp. Today's low was 14.06 is now near its uptrend line from March, near 13.25, which I suspect will be tagged if we get the push higher in the stock market into next week. Holding its uptrend line would help with a short entry in the stock market.

Volatility index, VIX, Daily chart

The SPX weekly chart shows my expectation for at least a minor new high by next week, potentially up to a price projection at 1768 in August. There is the possibility we'll get another leg down for the pullback correction off the May high and then another rally into October. A break below 1530 would indicate a more serious decline is underway.

S&P 500, SPX, Weekly chart

The good news for the bulls is the fact that SPX has climbed above both its downtrend line from May as well as back above its broken November-April uptrend line (and of course its 50-dma). Holding above its uptrend line, near 1645 on Thursday, keeps the bulls in control. A drop below the June 27th high at 1620 would negate the bullish wave count that calls for a pullback and then higher into next week.

S&P 500, SPX, Daily chart

Key Levels for SPX:
- bullish above 1655
- bearish below 1620

Before the after-hours bounce it was looking like the market was set up for a pullback (or something more bearish) and that's what I'm showing on the 60-min chart below. In light green I'm showing a rally up to about 1664 where it will meet a trend line along the highs from the July 27th high. The projection at 1664 is also where the rally from June 24th would have two equal legs up. This might be significant because it's possible it will be an a-b-c bounce to complete wave-B in a larger A-B-C pullback correction off the May high. This would mean a steep pullback into the end of the month and then another rally. I consider that an alternate wave count at the moment. A final high next week is the preferred count at the moment.

S&P 500, SPX, 60-min chart

It's the same pattern for the DOW -- it has rallied up to the trend line along the highs from June 27th but the top of a parallel up-channel from June 24th is near 15460 Thursday morning, about 70 points above today's close, which is being suggested by the climb in the after-hours futures market. It's possible, if the futures hold up overnight and we get the gap up, we might see a gap n crap day tomorrow so be careful about that possibility (more distribution).

Dow Industrials, INDU, Daily chart

Key Levels for DOW:
- bullish above 15,200
- bearish below 15,075

From a trendline and Fib perspective I see upside potential to 3572-3595 for the Nasdaq before the end of the month. The pattern of the rally from October 2011 counts best as a double zigzag, which has the second a-b-c as the move up from June 2012. The c-wave would be 162% of the a-wave near 3572. The 62% retracement of the 2000-2002 decline is at 3595. The top of a parallel up-channel from October 2011 crosses this projection zone before the end of this month.

Nasdaq Composite index, COMPQ, Daily chart

Key Levels for COMPQ:
- bullish above 3515
- bearish below 3415

A common reversal Fib is the 127% extension of a previous move. For the RUT this extension is of the May-June pullback and points to 1026. This extension crosses the trend line along the highs from February 2012 through the May 2013 high tomorrow and if the rally in the after-hours futures holds we'll see that level tested first thing in the morning. It's possible that will complete the rally so be watchful for the possibility.

Russell-2000, RUT, Daily chart

Key Levels for RUT:
- bullish above 1026
- bearish below 993

Last week's selloff in bonds pushed yields to new highs for the move up from May 1st. Monday's negative reaction in bonds had TNX (10-year yield) making another high but with bearish divergence and Monday's high at 2.725% was ticks shy of the projection at 2.744%, which is where the c-wave of an a-b-c bounce off the July 2012 low is 162% of the a-wave. If bonds sell off a little more it could have TNX tagging its downtrend line from 1981-2007, near 2.84%, but at the moment it's a good setup for a reversal in bonds, even if it will be only a pullback before heading higher (which most analysts seem to believe at this point).

10-year Yield, TNX, Weekly chart

I've been showing the BKX weekly chart for the past few weeks to point out a trend line along the highs from March 2012 through the May 2013 high, near 64.10. Monday it poked above the line and then hit a high of 64.67 on Tuesday before dropping sharply back down today. Closing back below the line leaves a sell signal following the throw-over so that's a warning sign for the bulls at the moment.

More important than the trend line is the fact that BKX has reached a projection zone at 64.60-64.90 with Tuesday's high. The larger wave count for the rally from October 2011 can be considered complete at any time now. Similar to the wave count discussed for the Nasdaq, the move up from October 2011 looks to be a double zigzag wave count with the first a-b-c up to the March 2012 high, the x-wave down to the June 2012 low and the second a-b-c up from there. The c-wave is 162% of the a-wave at 64.60 (achieved) and the 5-wave move for it is shown on the daily chart below. The 1st wave looks like an extension and in that case it's typical for the 3rd through 5th waves to equal the 1st wave (sometimes only 62%), which is the projection at 64.90. For this reason, the upper trend line that it dropped back below this morning is potentially important (as a sell signal). This is a good reason to be very cautious about the long side even though there remains the potential for the broader averages to press higher without the banks.

KBW Bank index, BKX, Daily chart

With both the DOW and TRAN rallying above their June 18th highs we have at least have them in synch and supporting the bulls. But not much higher the TRAN could run into trouble at its broken uptrend line from November-April, near 6550 on Thursday (70 points above Tuesday's high). In the same area is the top of its parallel up-channel for the rally from October 2011. Whether or not a new high is made above its May high, this should be the final rally leg.

Transportation Index, TRAN, Weekly chart

This week the dollar made a minor new high above its May high, retracing its sharp decline into June, but then sold off today and back below that high at 84.59, closing near 84.20. Then Bernanke spoke after the market closed and the dollar spiked lower, closing the after-hours session at 83.69. We'll have to see how it does in the overnight session but so far it looks ready for a pullback before pressing higher again (green path on its weekly chart below). We could see the dollar drop back down to about 82 and it would not turn bearish until it drops below its June 13th low at 80.50.

U.S. Dollar contract, DX, Weekly chart

Gold's pattern continues to call for a choppy bounce into the end of this month and potentially back up to 1300-1350 (wide range for now until the bounce pattern becomes clearer). One more new low after the bounce, perhaps down to the 1155 area, would set up a very good buying opportunity for at least a few months.

Gold continuous contract, GC, Daily chart

There's been no stopping oil's rally since its June 24th low at 92.67. It has now convincingly broken its downtrend line from May 2011 - March 2012, near 103.50 and with a high of 106.87 today it's up +15% in 11 trading days. If it breaks above the March 2012 high at 110.55 it will be a true bullish breakout rather than part of some larger bounce correction and then the question would be whether or not higher oil prices will hurt the economy. A spike in oil prices has not been good for either oil or the economy in the past. Two equal legs up from June 2012 points to 108.75 for a possible high for its bounce and as shown with the bold blue lines, the two legs would have the same slope if the 108.75 is achieved this week.

Oil continuous contract, CL, Weekly chart

There were no significant economic reports today but Thursday will be a little busier. But the unemployment claims, import/export prices, natural gas inventories and Treasury Budget are not market movers. Friday's PPi and Michigan Sentiment numbers could be market movers if they're much different than expected. Just keep in mind that reports will be interpreted by the "what will the Fed think" filter.

Economic reports and Summary

Following the 3-wave pullback from May into the June 18th low had me leaning with the bulls for another rally to new highs for the year. I've been showing the RUT's chart for weeks with this expectation and as I've been showing intraday, the market has been following the EW roadmap very closely. Ideally we'll see a pullback for a few days and then another rally leg into the end of next week to complete a clean 5-wave move up from June 18th. That would do a nice job setting up a reversal and an outstanding shorting opportunity.

The rally from the June 18th low could be part of a larger pullback correction from the May high and this interpretation calls for a 3-wave move up from June 18th, which could be completing any day now. It's possible a gap up on Thursday will be the final high and could be a gap n crap morning. So be careful about that possibility. Even if a new high only leads to a pullback before heading higher next week it means you don't want to chase a gap up Thursday morning. Needless to say it will be more bullish if we see a gap up and then nothing more than another high-level consolidation. But waning momentum has been a warning that we should be looking for at least a pullback.

The Thursday/Friday prior to opex (sometimes as late as Monday of opex week) has often been a head-fake day, like last month, with a pullback followed by a couple of buy programs to get the shorts running for cover. That remains a possibility this time again, especially if the wave pattern calling for a new high after a pullback is correct. I consider now to be a risky time to hold long positions but too early to get aggressively short. Trade carefully in the coming week.

Good luck and I'll be back with you next Wednesday.

Keene H. Little, CMT

In the end everything works out and if it doesn't work out, it is not the end. Old Indian Saying


New Option Plays

Auto Parts

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

In addition to tonight's new candidate(s), consider these stocks as possible trading ideas and watch list candidates. Some of these stocks may need to see a break past key support or resistance:

(bullish ideas) EXPE, BCR, ICE, RL, HHC

(bearish ideas) VIV, SQM, GOLD,



NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

Borg Warner - BWA - close: 87.25 change: +0.52

Stop Loss: 85.40
Target(s): 93.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on July 25th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
BWA is in the auto parts industry. The stock has been building on a bullish trend of higher lows. The last couple of weeks have seen shares stall at resistance near $87.50, which was resistance back in early 2012. Now given the narrowing consolidation below this level BWA finally looks ready to breakout higher.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $87.75. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move above $88.00 instead. It is possible that $90.00 could be round-number resistance but we're aiming for $93.00. Please note that we will plan on exiting positions prior to the earnings report on July 25th. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BWA is bullish with a $114 target.

Trigger @ 87.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Aug $90 call (BWA1317H90) current ask $1.75

Annotated Chart:

Entry on July -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 860 thousand
Listed on July 10, 2013



In Play Updates and Reviews

Stocks End Mixed

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

The U.S. market ended relatively flat on Wednesday. The FOMC minutes generated a brief spike higher that faded by the close.

We have removed FFIV as a candidate.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Automatic Data Processing - ADP - close: 71.75 change: +0.71

Stop Loss: 69.40
Target(s): 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +48.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: ADP displayed some relative strength today after lagging the market the prior two sessions. Shares added almost +1% and are nearing resistance at the $72.00 level. I am raising the stop loss up to $69.40.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $70 call (ADP1317H70) entry $1.65

07/10/13 new stop loss @ 69.40
07/06/13 new stop loss @ 68.40
06/27/13 new stop loss @ 67.90

Entry on June 18 at $69.25
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on June 17, 2013


Ameriprise Financial - AMP - close: 84.56 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 83.25
Target(s): 89.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on July 24th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/10/13: The high today was only $85.17 so our trade is not open yet. Shares faded toward the $84.00 level this afternoon. More aggressive traders may want to consider buying the dip now at current levels.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $85.25. If triggered our target is $89.25. However, we will plan to exit prior to the earnings report on July 24th.

Trigger @ 85.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the Aug $85 call (AMP1317H85)

Entry on July -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 1.25 million
Listed on July 09, 2013


The Boeing Co. - BA - close: 105.50 change: +0.82

Stop Loss: 102.45
Target(s): 107.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +20.3%
Time Frame: Exit prior to option expiration on July 19th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: The aerospace and defense-related stocks were showing strength today thanks to some positive analyst comments this morning. BA managed a +0.78% gain.

Earlier Comments:
This should be a very short-term trade. If triggered our short-term target is $107.00. More aggressive traders could definitely aim higher but I am expecting the $107.00-107.50 zone to be resistance. Since this is a short-term trade I'm using the July calls that only have two weeks left. If you are going to aim higher I would suggest a different month.

*small positions, short-term trade* - Suggested Positions -

Long Jul $105 call (BA1320G105) entry $1.33

Entry on July 08 at $104.35
Average Daily Volume = 4.7 million
Listed on July 06, 2013


Energizer Holdings - ENR - close: 103.00 change: -1.97

Stop Loss: 99.85
Target(s): 109.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -10.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: Ouch! Yesterday ENR broke out past resistance to close at new highs. Today the stock almost completely erased those gains with a nearly $2.00 decline. Traders appeared to buy the dip near its 10-dma. I would wait for a rally back above $103.25 before considering new bullish positions.

Our target is $109.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart for ENR is bullish with a $121 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $105 call (ENR1317H105) entry $2.75*

*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Entry on July 09 at $103.25
Average Daily Volume = 497 thousand
Listed on July 01, 2013


Flowserve Corp. - FLS - close: 55.57 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 53.95
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 20.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: Shares of FLS dipped to their rising 40-dma before traders bought the dip and shares pared their losses. I would consider new positions now at current levels.

Our multi-week target is $59.00 but we will plan on exiting prior to the earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Oct $60 call (FLS1319J60) entry $1.20*

*07/08/13 entry price on the option is an estimate since the option did not trade when our entry trigger was hit.

Entry on July 08 at $55.60
Average Daily Volume = 665 thousand
Listed on July 06, 2013


Medidata Solutions - MDSO - close: 79.79 change: +0.71

Stop Loss: 78.75
Target(s): 84.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/10/13: MDSO recovered nearly half of yesterday's pullback with a 71-cent bounce today. There is no change from my prior comments. We are still on the sidelines. Our plan is to buy calls if MDSO can trade at $81.25 (or higher). If shares don't show improvement tomorrow we might drop it.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $81.25. If triggered our target is $84.85 but we will plan on exiting positions prior to the next earnings report, which is expected in late July or early August. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart for MDSO is bullish with a $101 target.

Trigger @ 81.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the Aug $85 call (MDSO1317H85)

Entry on July -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 190 thousand
Listed on July 08, 2013


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 63.75 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 60.95
Target(s): 68.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +11.1%
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on July 25th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: NBL tagged new highs this morning but the rally failed near $64.50. Actually the stock failed twice near $64.50. This could be suggesting that NBL is tired and due for a brief pullback. I would look for a dip back toward the $62.75-62.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
If triggered our target is $68.50. However, we will plan on exiting positions prior to NBL's earnings report on July 25th. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. This past week has generated a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the point & figure chart with a $74.00 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $65 call (NBl1317H65) entry $1.35

Entry on July 09 at $63.05
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on July 06, 2013


Prudential Financial - PRU - close: 77.43 change: -0.67

Stop Loss: 74.75
Target(s): 79.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +64.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: After a multi-day rally PRU finally saw a little bit of profit taking today with a -0.8% decline. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers may want to exit early now to lock in gains.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $75 call (PRU1317H75) entry $2.40

07/09/13 new stop loss @ 74.75, adjust exit target to $79.00
07/02/13 new stop loss @ 72.40

Entry on July 01 at $73.65
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
Listed on June 29, 2013


Shutterfly, Inc. - SFLY - close: 56.60 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 55.85
Target(s): 59.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Jul55c: -10.4% & Aug60c: - 5.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: SFLY dipped to short-term support near $56.00 this morning. The stock bounced off this level but the rebound was fading lower into the closing bell. SFLY's rally looks like it could be in trouble here. Readers may want to exit early.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout higher could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the small 34 million share float. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SFLY is bullish with an $84 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jul $55 call (SFLY1320G55) entry $2.40*

- or -

Long Aug $60 call (SFLY1317H60) entry $2.00*

07/09/13 new stop loss @ 55.85
07/02/13 new stop loss @ 54.75
07/01/13 new stop loss @ 53.25
06/29/13 new stop loss @ 52.75
06/26/13 triggered on gap open higher at $55.43. Trigger was $55.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Entry on June 26 at $55.43
Average Daily Volume = 628 thousand
Listed on June 25, 2013


Toyota Motor Corp. - TM - close: 126.77 change: +0.57

Stop Loss: 118.90
Target(s): 130.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: TM continued to drift higher on Wednesday but drift is the key word there. Shares moved sideways most of the session.

More conservative traders may want to start adjusting their stop loss higher.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $130 call (TM1317H130) entry $2.80

07/02/13 trade opened on gap higher at $124.70, trigger was 123.65

Entry on July 02 at $124.70
Average Daily Volume = 694 thousand
Listed on July 01, 2013


PUT Play Updates

Marathon Petroleum - MPC - close: 68.30 change: -1.82

Stop Loss: 72.25
Target(s): 62.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -17.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: Oil refining stocks were weak today. MPC displayed relative weakness with a -2.59% decline. Today's move also looks like a failed rally at resistance near $70 and its 10-dma. Shares look poised to breakdown under the recent lows near $67.60.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Aug $65 PUT (MPC1317T65) entry $2.05

07/06/13 MPC has been volatile the last couple of trading days. Wait for a new low under $67.60 to launch new positions

Entry on July 03 at $68.25
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
Listed on July 02, 2013


Varian Medical Sys. - VAR - close: 66.93 change: +0.63

Stop Loss: 66.60
Target(s): 61.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on July 24th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/10/13: There was no follow through on yesterday's sell-off in VAR. The stock bounced with a +0.9% gain. We are waiting for a breakdown.

We're suggesting small bearish positions if VAR can trade at $65.40. If triggered our target is $61.00. Keep a wary eye on the April 2013 low of $63.10. It could be support.

Trigger @ 65.40

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the Aug $65 PUT (VAR1317T65)

Entry on July -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 716 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2013



Longer-Term Play Updates



Chicago Bridge & Iron - CBI - close: 60.80 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 74.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +37.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: There is no change from my earlier comments on CBI. No new positions at this time.

*Small Positions* - Suggested Positions -

Long 2014 Jan $65 call (CBI1418A65) entry $2.55

06/29/13 CBI might be poised to dip into the $57-55 zone again.
06/24/13 triggered @ 56.75
06/22/13 adjust entry trigger to $56.75
06/15/13 entry strategy change: change the breakout trigger at $65.25 to a buy-the-dip trigger at $56.50. Adjust the stop loss to $53.75.
Adjust the option strike to the 2014 Jan. $65 call

Entry on June 24 at $56.75
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on June 01, 2013


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

F5 Networks Inc. - FFIV - close: 71.95 change: +2.59

Stop Loss: 70.25
Target(s): 61.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on July 24th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/10/13: Has FFIV found a bottom? It's too early to tell but shares did outperform the market today with a +3.7% rally. It's worth noting that volume on the rally was more than double the average, which is bullish.

Our trade has not opened yet. The trigger to buy puts was $67.40. We are removing FFIV as a candidate tonight.

Trade did not open.

07/10/13 removed from the newsletter.

chart:

Entry on June -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on June 29, 2013