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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 6/16/2015

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

SeeSaw Markets

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

The Dow declined -108 on Monday and rebounded +113 today. The markets are going sideways as we wait for resolution on Greece and the FOMC.

Market Statistics

The S&P futures were down as much as -14 points overnight but rebounded to post a nearly 14 point gain by the close of trading. This is an astounding move given the declines in Asia. China's Shanghai Index fell -3.47%. The U.S. markets were helped by the lack of declines in Europe despite impending doom for Greece.




The U.S. futures were also helped by the New Residential Construction numbers for May. The headline number for housing starts dropped -11.1% from the April revision but it was still a 5.1% gain over the same period in 2014. Starts fell from the 1.165 million pace in April to 1.036 million in May. The April number was a rebound from the weather related depression in February and March that averaged 0.927 million.

Analysts were expecting a pace for May at around 1.1 million. Single-family starts declined-5.4% and multi-family starts fell -20.2%.

Housing permits rose +11.8% in May after a +9.8% rise in April. That suggests the pace of starts will continue to rise. The pace of permits is up +34.6% from May 2014. However, single-family permits rose only 2.6% while multi-family permits rose +24.9%.

Housing completions rose from 0.988 million to 1.034 million or a +4.7% rise. The backlog of houses either permitted or under construction is rising and that should support some additional hiring in the sector.

The housing numbers were good and support the claim that the market is improving. With a threatened rise in interest rates late this year and early 2016 there could be a surge of buying interest in order to lock in a low rate.

The calendar for Wednesday is FOMC all day long. There is nothing else to take the focus off the Fed and that means the market will be transfixed by the Fed expectations.


There is actually a positive market bias for Fed meetings where Janet Yellen has a news conference. Her dovish position has tended to give the market hope and news conference days have been somewhat bullish. The Dow rallied +225 points after the post FOMC press conference on March 18th.

The December FOMC meeting was on the 16th and 17th. On the 16th the Dow closed at a six-week low of 17,068. On the 17th the Dow closed at 17,356 for a gain of +288 points and it went on to gain another +700 points over the next four days.

While we can't reasonably expect that kind of repeat performance this week we can at least hope for a positive result. That is probably what powered the market higher today. Call it the Yellen effect. Eventually she is going to disappoint the market but until then traders appear to be gaming the historical trend.

The healthcare sector was in the news again today as UnitedHealth (UNH) was rumored to be making a bid for Aetna (AET) according to the Wall Street Journal. The Journal said UNH sent Aetna a letter proposal over the last "few" days. Aetna shares rallied another $4 after a $5 gain on Monday.


It is tough to know who is making a play for whom. With five major companies all looking to buy/merge we could end up with only three and one of the five would be left without a date to the prom. Anthem (ANTM) approached Cigna (CI) with a $175 offer and was turned down. Anthem was also interested in Humana (HUM). UnitedHealth was also reported to be a potential acquirer for Cigna and Aetna. Aetna was also rumored as possibly being interested in Humana. There is no doubt somebody is going to be acquired and if they do not want to be acquired then they better be looking at acquiring somebody else really fast.

Anthem has 37.5 million members. Aetna has 46 million. Cigna has 88 million members in 30 countries. Humana has 14.2 million members in plans and 7.4 million in specialty products. UnitedHealth is the largest with $115 billion in market cap and more than 40 million members. Clearly Humana is the runt of the litter. The odds are good that two companies will each buy somebody else and somebody will end up alone.


Coty Inc (COTY) shares spiked +19% after news broke they were in a deal with Proctor & Gamble (PG) to acquire their beauty business in a $12 billion transaction. The deal would transfer brands like Gucci, Hugo Boss, Wella, Clairol, Max Factor and Cover Girl to Coty. For P&G it is part of their plan to narrow its focus on its core products. Coty would become the top seller in the perfume and hair care business. Coty markets Marc Jacobs, Calvin Klein, Chloe as well as various celebrity perfumes. The deal would be structured as a "Reverse Morris Trust" to be tax free to P&G shareholders. The assets would be spun off into a separate company which would then absorb Coty in an all share deal.

Coty only has a market cap of $3 billion but they are paying $12 billion for the P&G brands. Of course paying might not be the right word since the P&G spinoff will end up owning a majority of Coty.


UPS closed fractionally positive after saying they were going to discontinue some holiday shipping discounts. The company is going to discontinue free or heavily discounted shipping on large items because they clog up the shipping system at the sorting centers. Larger packages have to be handled manually while smaller packages zip through the automated systems with no human intervention. UPS had discounted the larger packages because of the increased cost to the shippers prevented many from choosing UPS. Now that UPS does not need the business the big packages are a headache.

UPS also announced it was buying logistics firm Parcel Pro for an undisclosed amount. Parcel Pro provides services and insurance coverage for the transport of jewelry, wristwatches and other luxury goods. The increased amounts of insurance coverage allow companies to ship more items in one package making it more cost effective.


While on the topic of shipping Amazon is experimenting with an application that would allow normal people to pickup packages at brick and mortar retailers and deliver them to Amazon customers on their way to other locations. The service would be called "On My Way."

In theory Amazon would enlist the services of regular retailers in high traffic areas to receive packages for customers near their store. Normal people looking to make a few extra bucks would pick up those packages that needed to be delivered and drop them off during their regular travels. Say you passed store A every morning on your way to work and you traveled the same route every day to get to work. The application would select packages that needed to be delivered along that route and you get paid for making the pickup and drop offs on your way to work or on your lunch break. Amazon gets a break on shipping rates and the driver makes a few bucks extra to pay for gas.

Amazon's shipping costs rose +31% in 2014 and that was faster than sales growth. Amazon ships about 3.5 million packages a day. UPS packages cost an average of $8 each. Amazon said the program is in the planning stages and it is possible it will never be implemented.


Box Inc (BOX) shares rose +3.5% after it announced that deep integration with Microsoft Office will transform "Collaboration" for joint customers. Box will let Microsoft Office users create documents in the cloud. Box said customers already have more than a billion Office documents stored in the Box cloud.

Microsoft sells a competing cloud product called OneDrive but CEO Nadella said they have been working to let clients choose a combination of programs that are capable of operating together. "We are agnostic when it comes to who we integrate with" according to Microsoft. Microsoft also has a partnership with Box competitor Dropbox. Box currently has 47,000 paying companies for their cloud storage product. Companies have all employees store their data in the cloud and that makes backup and retrieval significantly simpler.


Monster Beverage (MNST) was upgraded to the Citigroup Focus List and named a "top pick." Citi analysts are expecting "outsized" earnings and revenue growth over the next five years. Citi also said they see "considerable upside" to the share price from the current levels. Citi put a $155 price target on the stock. Shares rose +4% to $132 on the analyst note.

Monster completed a deal with Coke on June 12th to transfer some brands to Coke in exchange for others from Coke and entered into a global marketing agreement. Coke also completed the purchase of a 16.7% stake in Monster for $2.15 billion as part of the brand swap and marketing agreement. I personally believe Coke will eventually buy the rest of Monster.


Gap Stores (GPS) said it was closing 175 stores in an effort to get back to basics and drive traffic to its remaining locations. The company will close 175 of the 675 Gap stores over the next several years. They expect to lose about $300 million in annual sales from the closures. They are also cutting 250 employees from the San Francisco headquarters.

The company plans to renovate and improve its "digital footprint" in an effort to sell more online and engage with customers who are reluctant to shop in the malls. After the closures Gap will have 500 Gap stores and 300 outlet stores in North America. They do plan on closing some stores in Europe but the numbers have not been decided. They are planning on opening new stores in China where growth has exploded over the last 4 years. China ecommerce sales rose +60% in 2014.


United Rentals (URI) was cut from neutral to underperform by Macquarie. United recently warned that the decline in activity in the energy sector was going to be a drag on earnings and it could last all year. Macquarie expects a 10% decline based on recent guidance. United rents tools and equipment and the energy sector was a good customer.

Just a couple days ago activist investor Jana Partners reported it had taken a 6% stake in the firm.


Oshkosh (OSK) cut its profit forecast for the full year because of bad weather in the prior quarter and a delay in launching a new product. The company cut full year estimates from $4.00-$4.25 to $3.75-$4.00. Shares fell -7% on the news.


Markets

The indexes seesawed today and recovered what they lost on Monday but all bets are off for Wednesday. Analyzing indexes today is almost a waste of time since we are going to be entirely driven by headlines on Wednesday.

The Greek standoff is nearing the crisis point and Greece is either going to stand their ground and run out of money or the EU is going to blink and give them another interim funding deal in order to kick the can farther down the road. Trying to forecast what will happen in Greece and its impact on our markets is a waste of time

The FOMC is not likely to make any changes to interest rates but they are probably going to strongly indicate that they will raise rates in September assuming no major changes in the economy. Currently analysts are expecting a hike in September and again in March and then several months of watching to see if the rates had any impact on the economy.

In theory the market should have already priced in a September rate hike but constantly optimistic investors are operating with blinders on to the potential for a rate hike. There is a large contingent of analysts that do not believe the Fed will hike until mid 2016 regardless of what they say on Wednesday.

That means the closer we get to a hike either in Fed guidance or the September meeting the more nervous those investors will be. Historically the market normally declines on the first rate hike and then rebounds into rally mode for the next year or so. Of course historically the economy is normally running at about twice the current pace of +2.5% annual GDP so we are starting off with a handicap this time around.

I am not going to try and predict the market movement after the Fed meeting. I mentioned earlier that the prior two press conferences produced significant rallies but now that the trend is established that gives hedge funds something to trade against.

The S&P dipped on Monday to retest the 150-day average at 2074 and that remains solid support. The 2075-2080 range as been tested numerous times and has held every time. The critical levels remain 2065 and 2040. Volume was still anemic at only 5.4 billion shares so no conviction yet.


Dow support at 17,800 has eroded to 17,750 but it still exists. The 17,600 level is still the critical area to watch. The majority of the Dow stocks are still in a down trend although the trends are becoming fairly choppy given the volatility over the last couple of weeks.

The merger talk lifted the Dow out of negative territory this morning with gains in UNH and PG. Gains in crude helped turn Exxon and Chevron positive. Goldman was up on the rally in the bank stocks. Only three Dow stocks gained more than $1 so it would be hard to say it was a bullish day. The gains in UNH accounted for about 20 Dow points.

Despite today's gains the Dow is in a down trend with today only one more lower high in the trend. However, a move over 18,100 would negate that.



The Nasdaq continues to vacillate between 5000-5100 and today was another close right in the middle at 5055. "There is nothing to see here, move along" to pull a phrase out of the first Star Wars movie in 1977. Can you believe it was that long ago? Dang I am getting old.

There was nothing to see on the +25 point rebound in the tech index. The gains came from Netflix, Monster and the biotech sector and that is the same pattern for the last several weeks.

The Nasdaq is holding near the highs but struggling slightly at the lower end of the range. It may be slightly weaker but so far it has not been a problem.



As has been the case lately the Russell 2000 is actually holding the market up. The index gained +8 points today to close at 1269 and only 6 points below a new high. It would be VERY hard to paint any kind of bearish picture for the market with the small caps about to break out ahead of an index rebalance.


To emphasize that point on the small caps the Russell Microcap index ($RUMIC) closed at a new high today. This is the smallest of the small caps and clearly, fund managers are not afraid of the summer doldrums. They continue to nibble away on these stocks as the first six months of the year comes to a close.


It is hard to be bearish given the strength in the small caps but the big caps are still lagging. Rather than try to predict direction before/after the FOMC meeting I would rather wait until next week and see what direction the market decided to go.

Today is my 48th wedding anniversary. I have now been married 2.5 times longer than I was single. My wife and I were talking this morning, yes we still communicate, and going back over the highlights and lowlights of the last 50 years. Since we are still married we obviously had more good than bad and we are expecting plenty additional years ahead.

I was scrolling through the news headlines while we were chatting and saw this one. "Kirk Kerkorian, billionaire investor, dies at 98." I mentioned it to her and said it would be nice epitaph to have when I die. "Jim Brown, billionaire investor dies at 98." I thought she was going to fall off her chair laughing. She said I might make the age 98 part but it would be a miracle to make the billionaire part. She never has taken me seriously and I guess that is why we made it 48 years.

Enter passively, exit aggressively!

Jim Brown

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New Option Plays

Major Breakout Brewing

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

In addition to tonight's new candidate(s), consider these stocks as possible trading ideas and watch list candidates. Some of these stocks may need to see a break past key support or resistance:

Bullish ideas: COF, NOW, UA, PZZA, SNA, GILD, AON, MA, TSCO, HCA, TGT,




NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

ManpowerGroup Inc. - MAN - close: 88.79 change: +1.31

Stop Loss: 85.70
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 697 thousand
Entry on June -- at $---.--
Listed on June 16, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in very late July
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Trade Description:
The U.S. Q1 GDP growth estimate was a dismal -0.7%. Yet Q2 estimates have been rising the last few weeks. It looks like the U.S. will avoid a recession. The average estimate is above +2.0%. Most believe that if the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates they will only do so because they believe the economy is healthy enough and growing fast enough to endure higher rates. At the same time we are hearing improving economic data out of Europe thanks to the ECB's massive QE program. While growth in Europe is expected to be slow it is still growth and the ECB's QE program is set to last through September 2016.

One way to play improving economies in U.S. and Europe is the staffing industry. MAN is part of the services sector. According to the company, "ManpowerGroup (MAN) is the world's workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 people to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands – Manpower®, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent."

Their most recent earnings report was April 21st. MAN announced their 2015 Q1 results were $0.83 per share. That was down -3.4% from a year ago but it was four cents better than analysts were expecting. Revenues were down -7.4% to $4.5 billion but this too was above expectations. The EPS and revenues declines were "significantly impacted" by the strong U.S. dollar. On a constant currency basis MAN's earnings were up +16% and revenues were up +7%.

Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup CEO, said, "2015 is off to a strong start as we built on the progress we made last year delivering good results in the first quarter. It is encouraging to see the early signs of more broad based improvement in Europe, setting the stage for what we believe could be a slow but sustained labor market recovery in that region. The strong start to the year gives us confidence that we are on the right track and that our focus on permanent recruitment and our market leading solutions offerings continues to pay off. We are well placed to seize further opportunities as economic trends improve."

MAN has recently upped their semiannual dividend +63% from $0.49 to $0.80 per share. They're also making acquisitions. The company recently purchased the Australian and Singapore divisions of Greythorn, a professional services and recruiting firm. They just announced they were buying the 7S Group in Germany for 136.5 million euros.

Most of Wall Street is bullish on MAN. The last few months have seen a parade of upgraded price targets. Some of the new analyst price targets are: $89, $94, $95, $98, $99, and $103. Currently the point & figure chart is only forecasting a $94.00 target I suspect that if shares of MAN can breakout past $90.00 the stock is headed for $100.00.

Technically shares have been consolidating sideways beneath resistance near $87.00-88.00 for more than two months. The rally last week and this week looks like a bullish breakout past this level. The $87.00 region has been resistance going back to late 2013 so a breakout here could be significant. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $90.25.

Trigger @ $90.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the SEP $95 CALL (MAN150918C95) current ask $1.85
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart:



In Play Updates and Reviews

Greece Fatigue?

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

Greece remains one of the biggest stories influencing the markets. There was no improvement in the Greek situation but stocks rallied anyway. Investors might be fatigued by the constant worry of a Greek exit from the Eurozone.

Meanwhile the short-term focus is on tomorrow's FOMC announcement and what the Fed Chairman Yellen might say in her press conference.

LUV hit our bearish entry trigger today.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 124.97 change: +3.96

Stop Loss: 119.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +64.7%
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Entry on June 15 at $118.75
Listed on June 10, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: Speculation about mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare space remained a hot topic on Tuesday. New rumors that AET was a takeover target helped push the stock to a new high at $128.65 this morning. AET eventually pared those gains to settle with a +3.2% rally on the session.

More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table here. We are raising the stop loss up to $119.85.

Trade Description: June 10, 2015:
Healthcare was big business before Obamacare. Now it's even bigger. AET is the third largest health insurer in the U.S. They added over 950,000 clients thanks to the Affordable Care Act. Naturally it doesn't hurt the healthcare business when the ACA forces you to buy health insurance or pay a tax penalty. Big insurers like AET are also benefitting from an expanding Medicaid program.

If you are not familiar with AET the company describes itself this way: "Aetna is one of the nation's leading diversified health care benefits companies, serving an estimated 46 million people with information and resources to help them make better informed decisions about their health care. Aetna offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, behavioral health, group life and disability plans, and medical management capabilities, Medicaid health care management services, workers' compensation administrative services and health information technology products and services. Aetna's customers include employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, labor groups and expatriates."

Earnings have been steadily improving for AET. They have a habit of beating estimates. Management has raised their guidance the last three quarters in a row. AET's most recent report was April 28th. The company reported its 2015 Q1 earnings were up +17% from a year ago. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.94 per share on revenues of $15.5 billion. AET delivered $2.39 per share. Revenues were up +8% to $15.09 billion. The number of medical enrollment members rose +4% to 23.7 million.

AET's management raised their 2015 guidance for the second time in a row. They now expect fiscal 2015 earnings in the $7.20-7.40 range compared to analysts' estimates at $7.17. The stock has been steadily rising thanks to its bullish outlook.

The big insurance stocks surged in late May on M&A rumors. Then on May 29th Humana (HUM) announced they were putting the company up for sale. HUM surged +20% on that one session. AET, Cigna (CI), and Anthem (ANTM) have all been rumored as potential suitors for HUM. Lately Wall Street has been rewarding the acquirer's stock with a rally on any merger news. AET could rally if they turn out to be the buyer.

Shares of AET just recently saw a $5.00 correction from $120 to $115 and bounced. This rebound looks like a potential entry point. Today's intraday high was $118.53. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $118.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long OCT $125 CALL (AET151016C125) entry $4.34

06/16/15 new stop @ 119.85
06/15/15 triggered @ $118.75 thanks to M&A speculation
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Tableau Software, Inc. - DATA - close: 120.60 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 111.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +28.3%
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Entry on May 28 at $115.25
Listed on May 27, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to July option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: DATA suffered some profit taking this morning but traders bought the dip midday. The stock almost made it back to unchanged by the closing bell.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 27, 2015:
The market for analyzing big business data is growing fast. DATA is leading the charge. According to the company, "Tableau Software (NYSE: DATA) helps people see and understand data. Tableau helps anyone quickly analyze, visualize and share information. More than 26,000 customer accounts get rapid results with Tableau in the office and on-the-go. And tens of thousands of people use Tableau Public to share data in their blogs and websites."

The last few earnings reports have been very impressive. DATA released their Q3 results on November 5, 2014. Results were 12 cents above estimates with revenues up +71% to $104.5 million, also above estimates.

Their Q4 results came out in early February. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.11 a share on revenues of $122.58 million. DATA delivered $0.42 a share with revenues up +75% to $142.9 million. In the fourth quarter they added 2,600 new customers. They closed 304 transactions worth more than $100,000, a +70% improvement from a year ago.

Christian Chabot, Chief Executive Officer of Tableau. "In 2014, we experienced the strongest demand we've seen in our history, as the move to agile analytics grows faster than ever."

DATA reported their 2015 Q1 results on May 7th. Analysts were looking for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenues of $115.29 million. The company blew away these numbers with a profit of $0.08 per share (11 cents above estimates). The pattern of big revenue growth continued with Q1 revenues up +74.4% to $130.1 million. They added 2,600 new customers putting their total above 29,000. The number of deals above $100,000 hit 249 in the first quarter.

Management provided bullish guidance with estimates for Q2 revenues in the $135-140 million range. That's above Wall Street's estimate of $130.9 million. They also upped their fiscal year 2015 earnings picture and see $600-615 million, which is better than analysts' estimates of $587 million.

Shares of DATA surged on its results and optimistic guidance. Since then traders have been buying the dips pretty quickly. Today's display of relative strength (+1.99%) is also a new all-time closing high for DATA. It's also worth noting that DATA has been talked about as a potential takeover target.

The $115.00 level looks like short-term resistance. We will use a trigger at $115.25 as our entry point to buy calls.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUL $120 CALL (DATA150717C120) entry $3.82

06/10/15 new stop @ 111.75
05/28/15 triggered @ $115.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Sirona Dental Systems - SIRO - close: 100.37 change: +0.95

Stop Loss: 97.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -32.8%
Average Daily Volume = 316 thousand
Entry on June 15 at $101.05
Listed on June 11, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: It was another volatile session for SIRO. The stock gapped open lower near $99 but immediately bounced. Shares almost tagged a new record high this afternoon before trimming its gains. SIRO managed to outperform the major indices with a +0.95% gain today.

The $100.80-101.25 area appears to be acting as overhead resistance.

Trade Description: June 11, 2015:
Revenue growth in SIRO's business has been disappointing due to foreign currency headwinds thanks to the strong dollar. Yet investors seem to be ignoring this issue. Shares of SIRO have outperformed the broader market with a +15.3% gain this year.

SIRO is in the healthcare sector. They sell dental equipment. According to the company, "Sirona, the dental technology leader, has served dealers and dentists worldwide for more than 130 years. Sirona develops, manufactures, and markets a complete line of dental products, including CAD/CAM restoration systems (CEREC), digital intra-oral, panoramic and 3D imaging systems, dental treatment centers and handpieces."

The last couple of earnings reports for SIRO have only been mediocre. The company has been meeting analysts estimates on the bottom line (earnings). Unfortunately revenues have been seeing declines in U.S. dollar terms. On a local currency basis their sales have grown. One positive that helps the bullish picture for SIRO is margin growth. The company has seen margin growth improve the last two quarters in a row.

Shares of SIRO spiked down on May 8th, its most recent earnings report, but traders immediately bought the dip at technical support on its 50-dma. The stock seems to be stair stepping higher with a rally, then a week or two of consolidation that breaks out into another rally. Shares just broke through major round-number resistance at the $100.00 mark today. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $101.05. Volume on SIRO's stock and its options is a little light. I would start this trade with small positions to limit risk.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long SEP $105 CALL (SIRO150918C105) entry $2.90

06/15/15 triggered @ $101.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Skyworks Solutions Inc. - SWKS - close: 106.33 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 97.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +6.1%
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Entry on June 10 at $103.44
Listed on June 09, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: SWKS spent Tuesday trading back and forth across the $106 level but eventually settled above it. If you're looking for a bullish entry point I would be tempted to buy calls on a rally past short-term resistance at $107.00.

Readers may want to move their stop loss closer to $100.00.

Trade Description: June 9, 2015:
SWKS seems to be everywhere. They make semiconductor chips for just about every industry including aerospace, automotive, consumer electronics, wearables, and the Internet of Things. They have been called the leading wireless semiconductor company. They're probably best known for being a component supplier to Apple (AAPL) for the company's iPhones.

The stock has soared from its October 2014 lows near $45 a share to over $100 today (a +126% move). SWKS is up +39.7% year to date versus a +5.5% gain in the NASDAQ composite and a +3.6% gain in the SOX semiconductor index.

If you're not familiar with SWKS they're in the technology sector. According to the company website, "Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is an innovator of high performance analog semiconductors. Leveraging core technologies, Skyworks supports automotive, broadband, wireless infrastructure, energy management, GPS, industrial, medical, military, wireless networking, smartphone and tablet applications. The Company's portfolio includes amplifiers, attenuators, circulators, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, front-end modules, hybrids, infrastructure RF subsystems, isolators, lighting and display solutions, mixers, modulators, optocouplers, optoisolators, phase shifters, PLLs/synthesizers/VCOs, power dividers/combiners, power management devices, receivers, switches and technical ceramics. Headquartered in Woburn, Mass., Skyworks is worldwide with engineering, manufacturing, sales and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe and North America."

The company is really cashing in on some major global trends including smart phones and smart(er) cars. Data suggests that over 90% of mobile phone users are still using 2G and 3G phones. That means SWKS should benefit as they upgrade to 4G phones. Meanwhile SWKS is also poised to benefit from the surging trend of interconnectivity in automobiles. One forecast estimates that 75% of automobiles in 2020 (about 70 million vehicles) will have Internet-connectivity. Today that number is only around 10 million cars.

The company's earnings growth has been phenomenal. They have beaten Wall Street's earnings and revenues estimates the last four quarters in a row. They have also raised their guidance the last four quarters in a row. Their 2014 Q4 report saw revenues up +50%. Their 2015 Q1 reported revenues were up +59% while earnings were up +88%. SWKS' Q2 report on April 30th delivered earnings growth of +85% on revenue growth of +58%.

Several analysts upgraded their price target on SWKS following the April results. Analysts are expecting strong year-over-year growth for the next several quarters. One reason is the Apple iPhone upgrade cycle. There are about 450 million iPhones in circulation. Thus far only about 20% have upgraded to the iPhone 6 or 6+. That leaves a lot more iPhone sales to come.

A fast-growing company like SWKS can be a buyout target. There have been rumors that QCOM is a potential suitor.

Shares of SWKS have seen an intraday correction from $111.60 on June 1st to $98.07 today. That's a -11% pullback and traders pounced on SWKS when it started to bounce. The $100 region and the 50-dma coincide with the bullish trend of higher lows. We want to hop on board the SWKS train if shares continue to rebound. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $103.25. I should warn you that SWKS can be a volatile stock. You may want to consider this a higher-risk trade. We'll start this trade with a stop loss under today's low (just below $98.07).

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $110 CALL (SWKS150821C110) entry $4.90

06/10/15 triggered on gap open at $103.44, suggested entry was $103.25.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Zebra Tech. - ZBRA - close: 113.68 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 111.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -32.5%
Average Daily Volume = 475 thousand
Entry on June 10 at $113.54
Listed on June 06, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: Shares of ZBRA popped higher at the opening bell but the rally failed near $116.00. The stock spent the rest of the day fading lower and underperformed the market with a -0.5% decline.

We are turning more defensive on this trade and moving our stop loss up to $111.85. No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: June 6, 2015:
Traditionally known for bar code scanning and RFID technology, ZBRA has changed. They have grown into a company that management says puts them right in the middle of three major tech trends: the Internet of Things, mobility, and cloud computing. Today the company has thousands of customers in more than 100 countries, including more than 95 percent of all Fortune 500 companies.

ZBRA is in the industrial goods sector. In April 2014 they announced a $3.45 billion deal to buy the Motorola Solutions enterprise unit. According to the company, "Zebra Technologies is a global leader in enterprise asset intelligence, designing and marketing specialty printers, mobile computing, data capture, radio frequency identification products and real-time locating systems. Incorporated in 1969, the company has over 7,000 employees worldwide and provides visibility into valued assets, transactions and people The company's extensive portfolio of marking and printing technologies, including RFID and real-time location solutions, illuminates mission-critical information to help customers take smarter business actions."

The company has been consistently delivering on the earnings front. ZBRA has reported seven quarters in a row of double-digit earnings growth. The numbers have boomed since the addition of the enterprise unit in October last year.

Looking at the last few quarterly reports ZBRA has been beating Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom line . Their most recent report was May 13th where ZBRA announced its 2015 Q1 results of $1.39 per share. That was a +53% improvement from the prior year and 28 cents above estimates. Revenues surged +210% to $893 million, which was above estimates. That was thanks to $561 million in sales from the Motorola solutions business. Even ZBRA's legacy business saw a +15% improvement in sales.

Anders Gustafsson, ZBRA's CEO, commented on his company's report, saying, "We started the year with strong, positive momentum, as business activity remained high specifically in North America and Europe. Our partners and customers are responding enthusiastically to our greatly expanded portfolio of solutions and capabilities, and our enhanced focus on giving them improved visibility into their assets, transactions and people for better enterprise asset intelligence. During the quarter we also made material progress on achieving our cost-synergy targets, pursuing growth initiatives and integrating Zebra with the Enterprise business acquired from Motorola Solutions in October. The favorable business trends are continuing into the second quarter, as Zebra is well positioned to benefit over the long term from the convergence of technology trends in the Internet of Things, mobility and cloud computing."

ZBRA guided in-line with analysts' estimates. Wall Street expects full year 2015 earnings growth of +50% and +24% growth in 2016. This bullish earnings picture has fueled big gains for ZBRA's stock price. The S&P 500 is up +1.6% year to date versus the NASDAQ composite's +6.6% gain. Currently ZBRA is up +47% this year. The stock has almost doubled from its October 2014 lows near $60.

ZBRA produced huge gains after its earnings report in May. After consolidating several days near $110 the stock broke out again on June 2nd. We like how traders bought the dip on Friday morning and expect ZBRA to hit new highs soon. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $115.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $120 CALL (ZBRA150821C120) entry $4.00

06/16/15 new stop @ 111.85
06/10/15 triggered @ $113.54 (intraday gap higher)
06/09/15 Entry strategy adjustment: Move the entry trigger from $115.15 to $113.25. Adjust the stop loss from $110.85 to $109.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




PUT Play Updates

Cerner Corp. - CERN - close: 67.51 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 68.15
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -20.4%
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Entry on June 04 at $66.75
Listed on June 02, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: CERN rebounded off its morning spike lower. The stock managed to keep pace with the broader market and close up +0.5%. I remain cautious here. The $68.00 level is short-term overhead resistance.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Trade Description: June 2, 2015:
CERN was having a pretty good year. Then the stock started to top out in March and April. Suddenly shares crashed lower in May due to disappointing guidance.

CERN is in the technology sector. According to the company, "Cerner's health information technologies connect people, information and systems at more than 18,000 facilities worldwide. Recognized for innovation, Cerner solutions assist clinicians in making care decisions and enable organizations to manage the health of populations. The company also offers an integrated clinical and financial system to help health care organizations manage revenue, as well as a wide range of services to support clients' clinical, financial and operational needs. Cerner's mission is to contribute to the systemic improvement of health care delivery and the health of communities."

CERN reported its Q1 earnings on May 7th. Just looking at the numbers it appeared to be a pretty good quarter. Earnings were up +22% from a year ago to $0.45 per share. That was only in-line with analysts' expectations. Revenues rose what look like a healthy +27% from a year ago to $996 million. Unfortunately that missed analysts' estimates for $1,084 million.

CERN's management said, "Revenue was below guidance provided by the Company due to a combination of lower than expected revenue from the recently closed acquisition of Siemens Health Services (Health Services) and lower revenue in our existing business." Earlier this year, in February, Cerner Corporation acquired substantially all of the assets, and assumed certain liabilities, of the Siemens Health Services business from Siemens AG.

CERN said their gross margins fell -40 basis points in the first quarter. They expect margins to slide another 100 to 150 basis points by yearend. Management provided Q2 and 2015 guidance that was below Wall Street estimates. This sparked the sell-off. The company is in a highly competitive industry and could definitely see more pricing pressures.

Technically the stock's oversold bounce didn't make it very far. Shares have been consolidating sideways in the $67-69 range for the last three weeks. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $59.00 target. Currently the stock looks poised to breakdown from this trading range. There is a chance it bounces at its simple 200-dma but we suspect it would be a temporary bounce. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $66.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SEP $65 PUT (CERN150918P65) entry $2.45

06/11/15 CERN is not cooperating and traders may want to exit early now
06/10/15 new stop @ 68.15
06/04/15 triggered @ $66.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Kohl's Corp. - KSS - close: 62.08 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 66.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +6.3%
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Entry on June 05 at $63.90
Listed on June 01, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: KSS' early morning attempt at a rally failed near $63.00. Shares underperformed the market with a -0.8% drop back toward short-term support near $62.00.

We should see KSS breakdown from this recent sideways consolidation.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: June 1, 2015:
Most of the big retail names have been disappointing on the sales front. Macy's (M) most recent earnings report saw the company miss analysts' expectations on both the top and bottom line and Macy's lowered their guidance.

J.C. Panney Co (JCP) beat estimates but their same-store sales disappointed and traders sold the stock. Retail titan Wal-Mart (WMT) missed estimates on both the top and bottom line and issued soft guidance. Kohl's (KSS) is suffering from similar results.

Wall Street is somewhat surprised by the retailer's lackluster results. The U.S. consumer is benefitting from significantly lower gas prices from a year ago. We have one of the healthiest job markets in years. Yet consumers are not spending. The U.S. Commerce department said April retail sales were flat (+0%) after a +1.1% rise in March. Today (June 1st), the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending was flat in April. According to Marketwatch.com, the pace of consumer spending has fallen to the lowest level in several years. After another harsh winter many were expecting pent up demand by consumers to produce a surge in spending when the weather warmed up. Thus far consumers are keeping their wallets closed.

KSS is in the services sector. According to the company, "Kohl's (KSS) is a leading specialty department store with 1,164 stores in 49 states. With a commitment to inspiring and empowering families to lead fulfilled lives, the company offers amazing national and exclusive brands, incredible savings and inspiring shopping experiences in-store, online at Kohls.com and via mobile devices."

The first quarter of 2015 was pretty good for KSS' stock. Shares rallied big on its Q4 results announced in early February. Earnings were better than expected. Revenues were just a little bit above expectations. Management raised their fiscal year 2016 guidance and raised their dividend.

Then KSS' upward momentum stalled in April. The stock started to reverse lower. Shares got crushed on May 14th with its biggest ever one-day drop that shaved off $2 billion in market cap. The drop was a reaction to KSS' Q1 results. Earnings were up +5% from a year ago and beat estimates. Yet revenues missed with $4.12 billion in sales versus analysts' estimates of $4.19 billion. Another warning signal was KSS' Q1 comparable store sales were up +1.4% versus expectations for +2.5%.

The disappointing news sparked some analyst downgrades and lower price targets. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $55.00 target. Technically shares of KSS look weak. The oversold bounce lasted about three days and KSS rolled over again with a steady pattern of lower highs.

Today KSS is poised to breakdown below its trend of higher lows and technical support at its simple 200-dma. We are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $63.90. I will point out that prior resistance near $62.00 could be support but momentum clearly favors the bears here. We suspect shares could fall into the $56-60 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

Long OCT $60 PUT (KSS151016P60) entry $2.40

06/09/15 Down 5 days in a row, testing support at $62.00
06/05/15 triggered @ $63.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Southwest Airlines Co. - LUV - close: 33.91 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 36.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -3.7%
Average Daily Volume = 7.9 million
Entry on June 16 at $33.85
Listed on June 15, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late July
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: The Dow Transportation average continued to underperform the broader market. Airlines, as a group, continued to sink as well. LUV dipped to new 2015 lows and hit our suggested entry point at $33.85. I would still consider new bearish positions at current levels.

Trade Description: June 15, 2015:
Last year LUV was one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 with a +124% gain. Shares are not seeing a repeat this year. In fact the stock is down -19% year to date. Most of the major airline stocks have been suffering as investors fear overcapacity will kill profits.

LUV is in the services sector. They're part of the regional airline industry. According to the company, "In its 44th year of service, Dallas-based Southwest Airlines (LUV) continues to differentiate itself from other air carriers with exemplary Customer Service delivered by more than 46,000 Employees to more than 100 million Customers annually. Southwest operates more than 3,400 flights a day, serving 93 destinations across the United States and five additional countries."

There are plenty of bullish investors rooting for LUV. After years of belt tightening with high oil prices the airline industry finally found some discipline and profits boomed. LUV has been a great example and many consider it the "best-in-breed" among the major airliners. LUV's earnings have surged from $0.43 a share in 2011 to $1.64 per share in 2014.

The big drop in crude oil last year was a major boon for most of the airline companies. Fuel is a huge expense and while oil has bounced off its 2015 lows it is still a lot cheaper than last year's prices. So why are airline stocks getting crushed? The biggest worry is the industry will build into much capacity (over supply) and this will lead to price wars, which could slash profitability.

On May 20th airline stocks were crushed, shares of LUV included, after the American Airlines CEO said they would aggressively compete on price. This is after AAL had already warned that their margins would shrink in 2016 versus 2015. News that LUV was planning to boost capacity by +8% in 2015 also helped spark the plunge lower.

The sell-off in airline stocks has continued as more companies downgrade their outlook. United Airlines (UAL) recently reported that their capacity had outpaced traffic growth. Delta (DAL) warned that their Q2 revenues would decline. Even LUV warned that their May passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) was down -6% from a year ago. They adjusted their 2015 Q2 PRASM estimate to be down -4% to -5% from a year ago.

In spite of all the negativity there are a ton of analysts who are still bullish on the group. If you do any research you'll see a lot of voices shouting that the airline stocks are a buy. You'll hear how the airlines will avoid the mistakes of the past. There are plenty of analysts suggesting the airlines are a buy because their valuations are so cheap. Even the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently raised their 2015 global estimate on airline profits from $25 billion to 29.3 billion thanks to lower oil prices and record high load factors (near 80%).

On one hand the bullish view point on airline stocks is true. Traffic is still growing. Oil prices remain depressed compared to the last few years. Valuations do look cheap. Eventually this group will get so cheap that they will find a bottom. Unfortunately that could be another -10% to -20% from current levels.

Technically LUV is a sell. The stock produced a bearish double top with its peaks in January and March. It has sliced through multiple layers of support and broken the longer-term up trend. The $34.00 level looks like short-term support. We are suggesting a trigger to launch short-term bearish positions at $33.85. Earnings are coming up in late July and we'll likely exit before LUV reports.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SEP $33 PUT (LUV150918P33) entry $1.87

06/16/15 triggered @ $33.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


SM Energy Company - SM - close: 48.10 change: +0.92

Stop Loss: 50.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Entry on June -- at $---.--
Listed on June 13, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
06/16/15: The oversold bounce in SM continued on Tuesday with a +1.9% gain. The $50.00 level should be resistance. If SM closes above $50 we'll probably drop it. A clearly defined failed rally at $50.00 could be an alternative entry point. Currently we're suggesting a trigger at $44.90.

Trade Description: June 13, 2015:
SM has been around a long time. They were founded back in 1908. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company but they changed their name to SM Energy Company about five years ago.

SM is in the basic materials sector. According to the company, "SM Energy Company is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in onshore North America."

SM operates in the Rocky Mountain region including the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Further south, they drill in the Haynesville and Woodford shales of Texas and Oklahoma. SM also operates in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. Even further south SM drills in the South Texas area with the Eagle Ford shale formation.

Crude oil's plunge in late 2014 crushed the oil sector and shares of SM followed it lower. Yet SM appeared to be having trouble before the big drop in oil prices. The company has missed Wall Street's earnings estimates the last four quarters in a row.

The huge drop in oil sparked significant cutbacks across the oil and gas industry with most major exploration companies reducing their capital spending plans. When SM reported their Q4 earnings in February 2015 they missed the EPS number by five cents and revenues were down -6.4% from a year ago. Management also slashed their 2015 investment plans by -44% from $1.9 billion to $1.0 billion.

SM reported its 2015 Q1 numbers on May 5th. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.29 per share on revenues of $543.1 million. SM delivered a profit of $0.21 as revenues plunged -42% to $365.9 million.

Citigroup issued a research report last month that suggested U.S. oil producers will still be able to profit with oil at depressed prices. Here's a quote from a Bloomberg article, "belt-tightening across the industry and more strategic drilling in prolific areas would deliver ample profits even at $50 crude. The improvement is driven by costs that are expected to fall by 20 to 30 percent and techniques that allow rigs to wring 30 percent more oil or natural gas from each well compared with a year ago." That definitely seems like ammunition for the bulls to be buying some of the oil producers. Yet the group continues to lag. They are facing some stiff headwinds.

Crude oil has produced a +25% bounce off its March 2015 lows. Yet the rally in oil has stalled the last few weeks with the commodity churning sideways. The recent OPEC meeting showed that the Middle East shows no signs of slowing down their production. The world is temporarily facing a small oil glut.

Meanwhile currencies could play an issue here. It is widely accepted that the long-term trend for the U.S. dollar is now higher. The Federal Reserve will eventually raise rates, either later this year or early next year. When they start raising rates it should boost the dollar. At the same time central banks around the world (like Japan and Europe) are in the middle of huge QE programs that will drive their currencies lower. Naturally this will lift the dollar even higher. A rising dollar pushes commodities lower.

Technically shares of SM have been very weak. The broke down from a bullish channel a couple of weeks ago. The stock has also sliced through some psychological support levels. The point & figure chart is currently forecasting at $40.00 target. You could argue that SM is already oversold. However, the path of least resistance is lower. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $44.90 with a wide stop loss at $50.25 just in case SM does see a little oversold bounce.

Trigger @ $44.90

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the AUG $40 PUT (SM150821P40)

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Zillow Group - Z - close: 85.71 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 88.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +19.2%
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Entry on June 01 at $89.85
Listed on May 30, 2015
Time Frame: exit prior to July expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/16/15: Shares of Z spent most of today churning sideways in an increasingly narrow range. At the end of the day Z continued to underperform with a -0.7% loss. On a very short-term basis the stock is poised to break one way or the other. We are going to try and reduce our risk by adjusting the stop loss down to $88.25.

No new trades at this time.

Trade Description: May 30, 2015:
The National Association of Realtors just announced on May 28th that pending home sales surged to nine-year highs in April. The U.S. real estate market is booming and yet shares of Z are down -31% from their 2015 closing highs. What's wrong with this picture?

Zillow is considered part of the financial sector. They are a free online service for consumers that provides home values, listings, and mortgages. According to the company, "Zillow Group (Nasdaq:Z) houses a portfolio of the largest real estate and home-related brands on mobile and Web. The company's brands focus on all stages of the home lifecycle: renting, buying, selling, financing and home improvement. Zillow Group is committed to empowering consumers with unparalleled data, inspiration and knowledge around homes, and connecting them with the right local professionals to help. The Zillow Group portfolio of consumer brands includes real estate and rental marketplaces Zillow(R), Trulia(R), StreetEasy(R) and HotPads(R). In addition, Zillow Group works with tens of thousands of real estate agents, lenders and rental professionals, helping maximize business opportunities and connect to millions of consumers. The company operates a number of business brands for real estate, rental and mortgage professionals, including Postlets(R), Mortech(R), Diverse Solutions(R), Market Leader(R) and Retsly(TM). The company is headquartered in Seattle."

The last year has been a rocky one for Zillow investors. The stock rallied from $130 to $160 in about three days back in July 2014 when the company announced a $2.5 billion stock for stock deal to buy its rival Trulia. By January 2015 the stock was bouncing along the $93.00 area.

Shares of Z did spike in February 2015 when they finally announced the completion of the merger. Shares surged more than 15% in one day on the news it had closed the acquisition. Zillow changed their name to Zillow Group. The combined company accounts for about 60% of the online real estate advertising market. It's the biggest U.S. real estate and home-related branding company on the Internet and mobile.

After the February spike higher shares of Zillow did nothing but fall. This culminated into a huge spike down on April 14th. The company issued an earnings warning. Z's management said that 2015 would be a "transition year", which on Wall Street means our quarterly results will stink. The company cut their 2015 revenue estimate down to $690 million. At the time Wall Street analysts were estimating $722-753 million in revenues. Z slashed their EBITDA estimate to $80 million when analysts were expecting $141 million. Zillow blamed the length review process by the FTC over potential anti-trust issues. Z's management was expecting a three-month review. It took nine months. No worries though, Z's management says that 2016 and 2017 will be awesome.

Z's most recent earnings report was May 12th. It was the first report with the combined company's results. Z posted a loss of $1.19 per share versus a 16-cent loss a year ago. Backing out their restructuring costs and stock option expenses their adjusted earnings was a profit of $0.05 per shares. That was 17 cents better than analysts were expecting. Revenues soared +92% to $127.3 million. Yet that wasn't good enough. Wall Street had been forecasting revenues in the $135-141 million range.

Shares of Z popped on its earnings news but they have done nothing but sink since then. Now the stock is poised to breakdown below round-number support at $90.00. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting an $86.00 target (which could get worse as Z continues to sink).

Bears point out that Zillow's valuation is very rich at more than 60 times forward earnings. The company also faces competition from the likes of Move.com and Realtor.com, both run by News Corp. My only concern is that there are a lot of bears shooting against this stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 37% of the 46.3 million share float. That's why Z can see huge one-day spikes as shorts panic. Yet overall they have been correct with Z underperforming the market.

Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to launch small bearish positions at $89.85. Odds are pretty good we could see Z retest its lows in the $80-81 area.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUL $85 PUT (Z150717P85) entry $2.60

06/16/15 new stop @ 88.25
06/10/15 new stop @ 91.05
06/04/15 new stop @ 93.55
06/01/15 triggered @ $89.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike