Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 3/14/2017

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Tuesday Trend Terminated

by Jim Brown

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The trend for the Tuesday before a Fed announcement to be positive was terminated today.

Market Statistics

The equity markets crashed at the open after crude prices collapsed to $47 on news Saudi Arabia, the leader of the OPEC production cut group, actually produced more oil in February than January. This is the country that bragged last month about how much they cut and how successful the production cut agreement was this time. The news shocked traders and everyone raced to the exits. Later in the day, Saudi Arabia said they were not exporting the oil but storing it for future use. That headline allowed crude to rebound to $48.50 and the equity markets recovered about half their opening losses. That six-day drop from $54 to $47 was -12.9% and crude has now moved into oversold territory.


The economic reports were ignored ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Q2 found that 39 out of 43 countries expected to expand employment in Q2. The component for net employment in the U.S. rose from 16 to 17. In the U.S. the percentage of respondents expecting to increase hiring rose from 19% for Q1 to 22% for Q2. Those expecting to cut workers fell from 6% to 3%. Those expecting no chance were flat at 73%.

The NFIB Small Business Survey for February declined slightly from 105.9 to 105.3. This was the first decline since September. Economic expectations dipped slightly from 48 to 47. Hiring plans fell from 18 to 15, sales expectations fell from 29 to 26. Nearly every other component declined slightly. Note the post election bounce in the chart below. Some of that optimism is bleeding off as congressional realities appear.

Moody's Chart

The Producer Price Index for February rose +0.3% after a +0.6% rise in January. Analysts expected flat prices for the month. Goods prices rose +0.3% and services prices rose +0.4%. On a trailing 12-month basis, the PPI is up +2.2% with goods prices up 4.0% and services up 1.3%. Analysts believe the rise in crude prices were responsible for the sharp increase in the PPI over the last three months.

The next two days will produce a flood of headlines as the Fed reveals their rate decision, the debt ceiling suspension expires and the Dutch election is held on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to hike rates and the futures are predicting a 93% chance of that event. It is the language in the statement and the press conference that will drive the markets.


The debt ceiling suspension expires on Wednesday and I have already heard/seen more comments about that in the last 24 hours than in the last 24 days. Senator McConnell said "obviously, we will raise the debt ceiling" but the timing is unclear. Some House members are already talking about tying an increase to some kind of legislation that will reduce the deficit or other pieces of legislation that could not pass otherwise. Senator Chuck Schumer and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi have already warned that democrats would not support any bill that was not clean with no other items attached. The lines are being drawn and there will be a fight. President Trump and his OMB chief have both said in the past that republicans have always been too willing to raise the limits. He campaigned on reducing the debt. This could evolve into a fight that involves the president in retaliation for democrats blocking his nominees and to establish who has the biggest clout. The market would not act favorably to that prospect.

The Dutch election is important because a win by anti-Islam, anti-immigrant, anti-EU, anti Euro candidate Geert Wilders would be a blow to the EU and the currency.

On Thursday the Swiss central bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will all update their monetary policy. They are not expected to make any sudden moves but you can never tell what may come out of those events.

There is a flurry of economic reports on Wednesday as well with the Housing Index and Retail Sales the most important.


Shoe retailer DSW Inc (DSW) reported earnings of 20 cents that beat estimates for 16 cents. Revenue of $674.6 million missed estimates for $695.5 million. Unfortunately, same store sales fell -7% and more than the estimates for a 5% drop. Sales per square foot of space declined -8.8%. Inventory levels remained about $25 million over analyst expectations. Analysts said DSW did not make the appropriate markdown to move slow inventory in the quarter. Analysts said the roughly 1,600 retail store closings already announced by chains like Macys, Pennys and others, would be a problem for DWS because of the liquidation prices available as those stores close. In the longer run, it will be a positive because those stores will no longer be competitors in those areas.


HD Supply (HDS) reported earnings of 44 cents compared to estimates for 44 cents. Revenue of $1.63 billion also matched estimates. You do not see that very often where both metrics are matched. For the current quarter, the company expects earnings of 60-68 cents on revenue of $1.84-$1.89 billion. That was below consensus for 72 cents on earnings but slightly above revenue estimates for $1.85 billion. Shares fell 4% on the news.


China social network YY Inc (YY) reported earnings of $1.46 on revenue of $357.8 million. The company guided for Q1 revenue of $318 to $332.6 million with the midpoint at $325.3 million. That missed estimates at $330.8 million. They ended the quarter with 56 million active mobile users, up 4.8% and 96 million active PC users. Shares fell -4% on the guidance.


The earnings cycle is really winding down with Oracle and Adobe the highlights for the rest of the week.


Disney (DIS) was upgraded to a buy from neutral at Guggenheim and the analyst raised his price target from $118 to $128. The analyst said the major theme park upgrades should breathe new life into the earnings. With a new slate of movies on tap later this year the winning streak should continue. This was perfect timing for our new play that we entered at the open today.


Corning (GLW) was downgraded by Goldman to neutral from buy and the price target lowered from $32 to $29. The analyst said valuations had become stretched. Shares fell -3% on the news.


Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) was getting a lot of attention on Tuesday after Bill Ackman said he closed his 27.2 million-share position for $11 a share or $330 million. He bought into the position around $190 and then doubled down when shares were about $95. Reports claim he took a $3 billion loss. Ackman said even if Valeant doubled it would not move the needle for his hedge fund Pershing Square Capital.

This is a big problem for Valeant. Bill Ackman has nearly unlimited patience. For him to throw in the towel at $11 suggests there are some dark days ahead for Valeant. If he thought the stock had a chance at recovery, he would probably have stuck with it. Now that he is out and he is leaving the board, the rumors are going to be flying of all sorts of problems ahead both real and imaginary. They have at least a dozen probes under way by regulators, multiple class action suits and a massive $30 billion debt load that they cannot ease by selling more shares at $11. If they just return to the bottom of their downtrend channel the stock would be $7.


Tesla (TSLA) shares spiked 5% after a British car publication called Autocar, said the company would be building a compact SUV called the Model Y that would sell for slightly more than the Model 3. They even produced a picture of the rumored crossover with a very sleek design. The publication said the new model could be a very popular seller and immediate winner. However, there was not a shred of proof that the story was true.


Elon Musk has said his next vehicle project will be heavy-duty trucks and high passenger density urban transports, similar to small busses. Those are expected to be unveiled later this year.

Tesla is ready to begin shipping the upgraded versions of the Model S and Model X with a 100 KWh battery. The Model S can go 335 miles on a charge and the Model X 295 miles. The cars are ready but Tesla is waiting on EPA approval.

Short seller Andrew Left said on Monday he had exited his short on Tesla. His tone seemed to indicate he had not been successful. He said he exited and "now it will probably go down." He should be glad he got out before today's spike.


Left's next target is Transdigm (TDG) and he expects that stock to fall 40% over the next two weeks. On Friday, he said the stock could fall to $140 and could be the next Valeant but he did not expect it to unwind completely. Left said Transdigm's "days of exploiting and deceiving the Federal Government are numbered." He quoted an inquiry by the Defense Logistics Agency researching disclosures by 12 subsidiaries providing inaccurate ownership information in an annual filing.



Markets

Investors have chosen sides and placed their bets. Now they are waiting for the coming headline storm and hoping they chose correctly. There is really no way of picking a direction today. The major indexes, with the exception of the Nasdaq, all dropped back to retest support at the open on Tuesday and all rebounded slightly from that support test. They did not recover all their losses but enough to lift them back over those support levels.

The small cap stocks were again the weakest with the S&P-600 falling back to critical support at 825. That is about the tenth time that level has been tested in 2017 and if we test it enough it will fail.

The problem with the small caps is that they rallied about 21% post election on optimism about decreased regulation and lower taxes. That is very important for small businesses. That 21% gain has been in consolidation mode for the last three months. Unfortunately, the uproar over the new healthcare plan appears to be increasing rather than decreasing and the odds for passage before the August recess are slipping away. For the small cap stocks that means the potential for a tax proposal getting approved in 2018 is also slipping away. This has not yet become common knowledge but as it does, the small caps are going to weaken further.


The S&P-500 retested initial support at 2,360 and the rebound was lackluster. This is exactly where you would expect the index to settle and wait for the various headlines to pass. If the news is bad, any decline should find support around 2,300. If the news is good, the index is at a launch point where it could easily retest the highs at 2,400. We are just watching and waiting for the headline storm.


The Dow retested support at 20,800 and closed only slightly above that level. The Dow chart is turning bearish and a sell the news event on Wednesday could cause a significant decline. The support is so widely known that it is an obvious point for sell stops if it is broken. The financials are not supporting the index even with an obvious rate hike ahead. That news has been priced in for weeks and the financials are already fading. Add in the weakness in Chevron and Exxon because of the oil price crash and the Dow is vulnerable.



The Nasdaq remains the strongest index with the Nasdaq 100 setting a new high on Monday. Both indexes pulled back slightly on Tuesday but remain well above support. The big cap techs are still holding their gains and could lead us higher on positive headlines on Wednesday afternoon.




Analyst Jeff Bierman compared the current market to the Titanic. The ship's captain ignored six different warnings about icebergs in the area and continued to sail at high speed. When the fatal iceberg was spotted, it was too late to avoid it. Even after the collision, it took hours to sink. He believes the market is sailing at high speed through an environment with multiple icebergs ahead. Investors are so complacent they are like the passengers sitting in the lounge listening to the band while the ship slowly took on water. The captain ordered the band to play to distract passengers.

With the market volatility at three month lows and only slightly off three year lows, the complacency is definitely in place. Investors have convinced themselves there is no danger and the new administration is going to implement so many changes that the market and economy will only move higher. We could be entering a phase where that idea is going to run head first into congressional roadblocks that could take months to resolve. Once those roadblocks become apparent, we could see a change in trend.


The "Sell in May and go away" cycle this year could be especially rough. Investors have a lot of profits from the post election bounce and without any further market progress the arrival of May could be a problem. Actually, the cycle could start early this year for the reasons listed above.

Like everyone else, I am long until the trend changes. I am keeping my stop losses in place and I will let the market take me out rather than forcing myself to make that decision every day. If you get to the point where you start thinking about lowering your stop losses, the end is near. In the long run, that will only cost you money. Bill Ackman is wishing he had set a stop loss $3 billion dollars ago. Set an accurate stop loss and stick to it. There is always another day to trade if there is money in your account.

Happy PI day. Today is 3/14 and that is the first 3 digits in the mathematical constant of PI or 3.14159265359. Today is international PI day. Personally, I prefer the other pie with apple my favorite.


Enter passively, exit aggressively!

Jim Brown

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New Option Plays

Watching and Waiting

by Jim Brown

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Editors Note:

Investors are moving to the sidelines ahead of the headline storm ahead. We should do the same thing. There is no practical reason to put new money at risk ahead of the Fed decision and press conference. Anything is possible even a sell the news event on good comments. We are holding a lot of positions and there is no reason to add additional risk. Just keep your fingers crossed the market reaction is positive.


NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

No New Bullish Plays


NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

No New Bearish Plays



In Play Updates and Reviews

Another Support Test

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

The Dow and S&P both pulled back intraday to critical support levels and both held. The Dow retested 20,800 and the S&P 2,360 and both were broken intraday but recovered in the afternoon. This was supposed to be a positive Tuesday because of the Fed decision tomorrow but there are too many headlines coming over the next couple days and some investors are moving to the sidelines just in case something negative happens.

The problems ahead are the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is the same day the debt ceiling suspension expires. Either or both could present problems for the market. The chance of a March rate hike has more than tripled over the last two weeks to 94% today and that is almost a guarantee it will happen. There are also three other central banks reporting their monetary policy on Thursday.



Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


DIS - Walt Disney

The long call position was entered at the open.

ITW - Illinois Tool Works

The long call position remains unopened until a trade at $135.25.

IWM - Russell 2000 ETF

The long call position remains unopened until a trade at $133.75.



If you are looking for a different type of option strategy, try these newsletters:

Credit spreads and naked puts = OptionWriter

Long term option investments = LEAPS Investor

3-6 month Option Trades = Ultimate Investor

Iron Condors = Couch Potato Trader

Long and short equity trades = Premier Investor



BULLISH Play Updates

ATVI - Activision Blizzard - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Only a minor decline in a down market after Monday's new high.

Original Trade Description: March 11th

Activision Blizzard, Inc. develops and publishes online, personal computer (PC), video game console, handheld, mobile, and tablet games. The company operates through two segments, Activision Publishing, Inc. and Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. The company develops, publishes, and sells interactive software products and content through retail channels or digital downloads; and downloadable content to a range of gamers. It also publishes subscription-based massively multiplayer online role-playing games; and strategy and role-playing games. In addition, the company maintains a proprietary online gaming service, Battle.net that facilitates the creation of user generated content, digital distribution, and online social connectivity in its games. Further, it engages in creating original film and television content; and provides warehousing, logistical, and sales distribution services to third-party publishers of interactive entertainment software, as well as manufacturers of interactive entertainment hardware products. The company serves retailers and distributors, including mass-market retailers, consumer electronics stores, discount warehouses, game specialty stores, and consumers through third-party distribution, licensing arrangements, and direct digital purchases in the United States, Canada, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Spain, the Netherlands, Australia, South Korea, China, and internationally. Company description from FinViz.com

Activision reported Q4 earnings of 92 cents that beat estimates for 73 cents. Revenue of $2.45 billion beat estimates for $2.35 billion.

The new Overwatch game was the fastest Blizzard title to hit 25 million registered players. Monthly active users (MAU) rose 5 million at Activision to reach 51 million. Bllizzard's MAU fell 1 million to 41 million but set a record for Q4. Kind Digital users fell from 394 million to 355 million. Since King Digital is phone games the numbers tend to be volatile. Users spent 43 billion hours playing ATVI's suite of games in Q4 compared to the 45 billion hours peopls spent watching Netflix.

Shares spiked despite weak guidance. They guided for Q1 for $1.05 billion and earnings of 18 cents. The street was looking for $1.2 billion and 31 cents. For the ful lyear they guided for $6.3 billion and $1.85 in earnings. That missed street estimates for $6.68 billion and $2.03. Fortunately, ATVI normally guides low and then crushes the estimates when they report.

Earnings May 11th.

Activision has not just one or two but seven game franchises worth more than $1 billion each. It is hard to argue with success. Also, the gamers currently playing those games are always waiting for the next version or the next big game that takes technology a step further. The gaming business is one of massively recurring revenue. They not only sell new game but expansion packs to existing games, maps, tools, and other game content that helps users better enjoy the experience.

Call of Duty, Overwatch, World of Warcraft and Destiny are cash cows that generate steady streams of recurring revenue. More than 74% of ATVI's $6.6 billion in 2016 revenue was from subscriptions, in-game purchases and other digital items where the ongoing costs are next to zero. Five years ago that number was 34%.

With $2.2 billion in annual free cash flow the company can continue to develop new content and look for other acquisitions to broaden the brand.

The company is now branching out into E-sports with an Overwatch League. There are tens of thousands of gamers that will pay just to watch a pro play their favorite games. Having those pros compete with other pros is even better.

Activision is making new highs but with everything they have going for them, I believe they will keep making new highs. The options are cheap so we do not have much to lose if the stock or market suddenly takes a turn for the worst.

Position 3/13/17:

Long May $50 call @ $1.99, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


AZN - AstraZenaca - Company Profile

Comments:

AZN released results of a study where the ovarian cancer drug Lynparza sharply slowed disease progression. Women with the disease lived an average of 19.1 months on the drug compared to 5.5 months for those on a placebo. Another report by the Society of Gynecologic Oncology said the number was 30.2 months. This is a new class of PARP drug that blocks enzymes involved in repairing damaged DNA and thereby helping to kill cancer cells. This is the first drug of its class to be approved by the FDA and reach the market.

Original Trade Description: March 2nd

AstraZeneca PLC engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription medicines for the treatment of respiratory, inflammation, autoimmune, cardiovascular, metabolic, oncology, infection, neuroscience, and gastrointestinal diseases worldwide. Its marketed products comprise Accolate, Bricanyl Respules, Bricanyl Turbuhaler, Daliresp, Duaklir Genuair, Eklira Genuair/Tudorza/Bretaris, Oxis Turbuhaler, Pulmicort Turbuhaler/Pulmicort Flexhaler, Pulmicort Respules, Rhinocort, Symbicort pMDI, and Symbicort Turbuhaler for respiratory, inflammation, and autoimmunity diseases; Atacand1/Atacand HCT/Atacand Plus, Brilinta/Brilique, Crestor2, Plendil, Seloken/Toprol-XL, Tenormin3, and Zestril4 for cardiovascular disease; and Bydureon, Byetta, Farxiga/Forxiga, Kombiglyze XR, Komboglyze, Onglyza, Symlin, Xigduo, and Xigduo XR for metabolic disease. The company's marketed products also include Arimidex, Faslodex, Iressa, Lynparza, Nolvadex, Tagrisso, and Zoladex, as well as Casodex, Cosudex for oncology disease; Fluenz/FluMist, Fluenz Tetra/FluMist Quadrivalent1, Merrem/Meronem2, Synagis3, and Zinforo4 for infection disease; Diprivan, EMLA, Movantik/Moventig, Naropin, Seroquel IR, Seroquel XR, Vimovo1, Xylocaine, and Zomig for neuroscience disease; and Losec/Prilosec and Nexium for gastrointestinal disease. It serves primary care and specialty care physicians through distributors and local representative offices. The company's pipeline includes 146 projects, of which 125 are in the clinical phase of development. It has collaboration agreements with Celgene Corporation; Immunocore Limited; Heptares Ltd.; Foundation Medicine, Inc., French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (Inserm); and FibroGen and Astellas, as well as a research agreement with Eli Lilly. Company description from FinViz.com.

In their recent earnings AZN reported $1.21 compared to estimates for $1.14. Revenue of $5.585 billion was in line with estimates.

Shares fell after the CEO warned that generic sales of Crestor were crushing sales of the original drug. Sales of Crestor were down 53% in the quarter. The company said because of the Crestor decline there would be low to mid single-digit declines in revenue in 2017 and low to mid-teens percentage decline in core EPS.

However, the company has a lot of drugs coming to market and several are "life changing" for cancer, respiratory and metabolic diseases. He said AZN was at an inflection point for the anticipated return to long-term growth built on a solid pipeline.

Earnings May 4th.

AZN just received approval from the FDA on a type-2 diabetes drug called Qtern, a once daily tablet for a disease that affects 29 million Americans. They also said Lynparza, a breast cancer treatment, proved to be more effective than chemotherapy in treating metastic breast cancer.

Investors are buying AZN for the pipeline and ignoring the decline in Crestor. They have had years for that decline to appear and now it is old news.

AZN is a slow mover and the options are cheap. If the market rolls over we will not have much at risk. If the market rebounds we should be in the money in a couple days.

Update 3/3/17: AZN entered into a deal with Sanofi to market MEDI8897 for the prevention of resipiratory synctial virus (RSV) in newborns and infants. AZN will get 120 million euros up front and 495 million upon the achievement of sales related milestones. All costs will be shared equally.

Update 3/13/17: Good article in the WSJ about AZN helped to power the stock through resistance. Read it here.

Position 3/3/17:

Long May $30 Call @ $1.10, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


AZPN - Aspen Technology - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor decline in a weak market. Shares are fighting against the week long decline but this 25-30 cents a day is starting to become a problem.

Original Trade Description: March 1st

Aspen Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides software and services to the process industries in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Subscription and Software, and Services. The company licenses integrated process optimization software solutions and associated support services designed to manage and optimize plant and process design, operational performance, and supply chain planning. Its software suites include aspenONE Engineering, and aspenONE Manufacturing and Supply Chain, which are integrated applications that allow end users to design process manufacturing environments, forecast and simulate potential actions, monitor operational performance, and manage planning and scheduling activities, as well as collaborate across these functions and activities. The company also provides software maintenance and support, professional, and training services. Its customers consist of companies, which are engaged in process industries, such as energy, chemicals, engineering, and construction, as well as consumer packaged goods, power, metals and mining, pulp and paper, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels. Aspen Technology, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts. Company description from FinViz.com.

Aspen reported Q4 earnings of 52 cents on revenue of $119.9 million. Estimates were for 43 cents and $117.6 million. Annualized revenue rose 4.5% to $450 million at the end of the quarter. Operating margins were 50.8%. The company repurchased 1.3 million shares in the quarter for $70 million. They ended the quarter with $140 million in cash and generated $27 million in free cash flow.

Earnings April 27th.

They are a small but growing company that provides software for manufactures to optimize plant operations. They acquired a new product in the quarter called Mtell, which offers machine learning based technology.

Shares have doubled over the last 12 months and they closed at a new high on Wednesday.

Position 3/2/17:

Long Apr $60 call @ $1.60, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


BMY - Bristol Myers - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Still declining on the headlines from the ongoing healthcare battle. The biotech sector declined -1.1% and BMY only declined 0.4%.

Original Trade Description: February 21st

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, and distributes biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers chemically-synthesized drug or small molecule, and biologic in various therapeutic areas, including virology comprising human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV); oncology; immunoscience; cardiovascular; and neuroscience. Its products include Baraclude for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection; Daklinza and Sunvepra for the treatment of hepatitis C virus infection; Reyataz and Sustiva for the treatment of HIV; Empliciti, a humanized monoclonal antibody for the treatment of multiple myeloma; Erbitux, an IgG1 monoclonal antibody that blocks the epidermal growth factor receptor; Opdivo, a fully human monoclonal antibody for non-small cell lung and renal cell cancer, and melanoma; Sprycel, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor for the treatment of adults with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia; Yervoy, a monoclonal antibody for metastatic melanoma; Abilify, an antipsychotic agent for adults with schizophrenia, bipolar mania disorder, and depressive disorder; Orencia to treat rheumatoid arthritis; and Eliquis, an oral factor Xa inhibitor targeted at stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Its products pipeline includes Beclabuvir, a non-nucleoside NS5B inhibitor for the treatment of HCV; BMS-663068, an investigational compound that is being studied in HIV-1; and Prostvac, a Phase III prostate-specific antigen to treat asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The company has clinical trial collaborations with Calithera Biosciences, Inc. and Janssen Biotech, Inc.; and a research collaboration with GeneCentric Diagnostics, Inc. Company description from FinViz.com.

BMY reported earnings of 63 cents that missed estimates for 67 cents. They guided for 2017 for earnings of $2.70-$2.90 and analysts were expecting $2.97. The shares were crushed with a $9 drop over five days. Complicating the earnings was news that sales of two drugs were slowing because of competition. However, what was not said was that BMY has dozens of other drugs currently being sold and dozens more in the pipeline. BMY has one of the richest pipelines in the business.

Fund manager Dodge & Cox did an extensive analysis of BMY and said the recent problems have just been a temporary setback and the strong pipeline of drugs plus their immuno-oncology business makes them particularly attractive and they initiated a large position. They said BMY has capitalized on its recent problems to become a focused biopharmaceutical company that is positioned to grow.

Multiple analysts have now called BMY an acquisition target. Icahn said that was one of his reasons for opening the position.

Earnings April 27th.

Shares are starting to rebound from the $46 low and they have plenty of ground to cover. The biotech sector is actually positive over the last week as through investors believe the danger from Trump and drug prices may have passed or at least moved into a new stage.

I am choosing a $60 June option with earnings in April. The option is cheap enough that we can hold over that earnings report if we decide to do that in April. If by chance there is a big gap higher on Wednesday, switch to the $60 strike.

Position 2/22/17:

Long June $57.50 call @ $2.78, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


DIS - Walt Disney - Company Profile

Comments:

Guggenheim upgraded Disney from neutral to buy and raised his price target from $118 to $128. The analyst said the major theme park upgrades should breathe new life into the earnings. With a new slate of movies on tap later this year the winning streak should continue.

Original Trade Description: March 13th.

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. The company's Media Networks segment operates cable programming services, including the ESPN, Disney channels, and Freeform networks; broadcast businesses, which include the ABC TV Network and eight owned television stations; radio businesses consisting of the ESPN Radio Network; and the Radio Disney network. It also produces and sells original live-action and animated television programming to first-run syndication and other television markets, as well as subscription video on demand services and in home entertainment formats, such as DVD, Blu-Ray, and iTunes. Its Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida and the Disneyland Resort in California. This segment also operates Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii, Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney; and manages Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, and Shanghai Disney Resort, as well as licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. The company's Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution in the theatrical, home entertainment, and television markets primarily under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Touchstone banners. This segment also produces stage plays and musical recordings; licenses and produces live entertainment events; and provides visual and audio effects, and other post-production services. Its Consumer Products & Interactive Media segment licenses its trade names, characters, and visual and literary properties; develops and publishes games for mobile platforms; and sells its products through The Disney Store, DisneyStore.com, and MarvelStore.com, as well as directly to retailers. Company description from FinViz.com

Disney reported earnings of $1.55 on revenue of $14.78 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.49 and $15.26 billion. The comparisons to the year ago quarter were tough because of Frozen and Star Wars, The Force Awakens in that period. Star Wars was the first billion dollar film for the current fiscal year. The studio segment generated $2.52 billion in revenue. In January, after the December quarter ended, the company said it had more than $7.6 billion in global box office gross thanks to Star Wars: Rogue One, Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory. CEO Bob Iger downplayed the concerns over ESPN saying they were very overblown because ESPN was still in demand by consumers, networks and advertisers.

Shares have recovered from the post earnings depression and are poised to continue making new highs, market permitting.

Earnings May 9th.

Position 3/14/17:

Long May $115 call @ $1.83, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


ITW - Illinois Tool Works - Company Description

Comments:

No specific news. I considered cancelling the recommendation but the stock is still holding the early March gains. It does not cost us anything to watch it and when a new breakout appears it could be strong after two weeks of consolidation. Continue watching.

This position remains unopened until a trade at $135.25.

Original Trade Description: March 6th.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. manufactures and sells industrial products and equipment worldwide. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Food Equipment; Polymers & Fluids; Welding; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment produces components and fasteners for automotive-related applications. The Test & Measurement and Electronics segment provides equipment, consumables, and related software for testing and measuring of materials and structures. This segment also offers equipment and consumables used in the production of electronic subassemblies and microelectronics. The Food Equipment segment provides commercial food equipment and related services. The Polymers & Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance. The Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, consumables, and accessories for various industrial and commercial applications. The Construction Products segment produces engineered fastening systems and solutions. The Specialty Products segment provides beverage packaging equipment and consumables, product coding and marking equipment and consumables, and appliance components and fasteners. Company description from FinViz.com.

ITW reported earnings of $1.39 compared to estimates for $1.37. Revenue of $3.4 billion matched estimates. Earnings were impacted by a 2% hit from the strong dollar.

The company reaffirmed their 2017 guidance for organic revenue growth of up to 3.5% and revenue from $13.8 to $14.1 billion. Operating margin is expected to rise 100 basis points to 23.5%. Free cash flow is expected to be $2 billion and $1 billion will be used in 2017 for stock buybacks. Q1 earnings guidance was $1.39 to $1.49. They ended the quarter with $2.472 billion in cash.

Earnings April 26th.

The commentary was positive and stock spiked sharply after earnings. Over the next four weeks, traders took profits and shares traded sideways. On the February 13th they declared a quarterly dividend of 65 cents payable April 11th to holders on March 31st. Shares ticked higher and began to make new highs.

I believe the economy is accelerating. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey last week was the highest since 1984 after three months of rapid growth. The new president is doing everything he can to spur growth in the USA and this is going to be contagious throughout America. Tool demand is going to rise.

Shares spiked to a new high after the president's speech and have held those gains.

Earnings are late April and I am reaching out to June for the option (no May strikes) and because of the market weakness I am putting an entry trigger on the position. We want to make sure the stock and market are moving higher before we enter the play.

With an ITW trade at $135.25

Buy June $140 call, currently $2.25, initial stop loss $132.65


IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - ETF Profile

Comments:

New dip to a four-week low at $134.56 but not enough to trigger our entry.

This position remains unopened until a trade at $133.75.

Original Trade Description: March 8th

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities.

The IWM has declined from more than $140 on Wednesday the 1st of March, to $135.90 as of Wednesday's close. The Russell has declined for five consecutive days. There is major support in the $133.50-$134.00 range. With the large cap indexes refusing to decline materially, we should see some buyers appear when that IWM support is reached. Secondary support is about $130.50. We will use a break of that level as evidence the trade is broken and I will place the stop loss slightly below $130.

The small caps rallied 21% after the election and after today's decline that has dropped to 15%. The small caps were the most bullish because the president's policies will benefit small businesses the most. This is why I do not believe the Russell will go into full meltdown mode.

The risk to this trade is that the tax overhaul gets pushed well into the future, possibly 2018. That could happen because of the war currently underway on the new healthcare proposal. If the proposal does not get a vote within the next 30-45 days, the wheels will come off the effort and the president's agenda dies a slow death. Democrats have vowed to slow walk it and stop it if possible.

The second risk is the expiration of the debt ceiling suspension on March 15th. This is not currently being discussed in the news headlines but once it arrives it could be another congressional disaster.

I considered buying puts on the SPY/IWM, etc because of these problems. However, premiums are already high and the large cap indexes are showing strong relative strength. I believe any dip over the next several days will be shallow and brief. If the risks above materialize it should be weeks from now and hopefully after an initial rebound has formed. That will give us an opportunity to exit if the market turns negative again.

Obviously, all of this is just speculation. Nobody can accurately pick market direction in advance. We try hard but the market has a mind of its own. This is a speculative recommendation. Do not enter the position if you cannot afford to lose all or part of your premium.

With an IWM trade at $133.75

Buy May $136 calls, estimated to be $3, initial stop loss $129.50


PAYC - Paycom - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares rebounded from support once again.

Original Trade Description: February 27th

Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software solution that is delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution offers a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, E-Verify, and tax credit service applications; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, and geofencing/geotracking applications. Its HCM solution also provides payroll applications comprising payroll and tax management, Paycom Pay, expense management, garnishment management, and GL Concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, executive dashboard, and Paycom learning applications. In addition, the company's HCM solution offers HR management applications, which comprise document and task management, government and compliance, benefits administration/benefits to carrier, COBRA administration, personnel action forms, surveys, and affordable care act applications. Company description from FinViz.com.

Paycom targets companies in the 50-2000 employee range in order to provide HR and payroll processing. Companies do not have the time or the manpower to keep up with the impact of Obamacare on employees and the company. As the new administration moves away from Obamacare and into some other form of health service, there will be significant uncertainty along the way as old rules change and new rules are implemented. Paycom provides their Affordable Care Act (ACA) dashboard application that tracks everything Obamacare related. This is giving Paycom a boost. The company guided for a 28% increase in revenue in 2017.

Q4 earnings of 15 cents easily beat estimates for 9 cents and nearly double the year ago quarter. Revenue of $87.8 million also beat estimates for $86 million. Recurring revenues rose 35.7%. Adjusted gross margin was 82.4%. During the quarter they repurchases 634,506 shares.

For Q1 they guided for revenues of $114.5 to $116.5 million. Analysts were expecting $114 million. For the full year, the company guided for $422 to $424 million in revenue compared to estimates for $417 million.

Shares spiked to $52 after the Feb-9th earnings and have moved up steadily to $55 and a new high. There is nothing to keep the shares from moving higher given the raised guidance and strong performance. The Obamacare uncertainty will continue to be a tailwind for the company.

Position 2/28/17:

Long May $57.50 call @ $2.69, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SLCA - U.S. Silica Holdings - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. WTI fell to $47 at the open after news broke that Saudi Arabia had produced more oil in February than January. They are supposed to be leading the production cut consortium.

Original Trade Description: March 9th

U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. produces and sells commercial silica in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Oil & Gas Proppants and Industrial & Specialty Products. It offers whole grain commercial silica products to be used as fracturing sand in connection with oil and natural gas recovery; and resin coated proppants, as well as sells its whole grain silica products in various size distributions, grain shapes, and chemical purity levels for manufacturing glass products. The company also provides ground commercial silica products for use in plastics, rubber, polishes, cleansers, paints, glazes, textile fiberglass, and precision castings; and fine ground silica for use in premium paints, specialty coatings, sealants, silicone rubber, and epoxies. In addition, it offers other industrial mineral products, such as aplite, a mineral used to produce container glass and insulation fiberglass; and adsorbent made from a mixture of silica and magnesium for preparative and analytical chromatography applications. The company serves oil and gas recovery markets; and industrial end markets with customers involved in the production of glass, building products, foundry products, chemicals, and fillers and extenders. Company description from FinViz.com.

Silica sells sand to drillers. The drilling activity has increased 50% since the low in May. The active rig count declined to 404 on May 27th and has rebounded to 756 as of last week. Many of these reactivated rigs are completing previously drilled wells that were never fracked and put in production. The IEA said there were more than 5,000 of these wells at the end of December. It only takes a few days to reopen a well and prepare it for fracturing and then move to the next. The sand demand to fracture these wells is off the charts.

Since the drilling boom in 2014 the amount of sand used in fracturing a well has risen about 400% because of two years of additional data and refinement of the process. A current well with a two-mile lateral requires as much sand as a 100 rail car train, called a unit train.

Sand providers claim they have drillers trying to lock in sand prices for a year in advance but there is not enough sand available to fill the demand. Prices are expected to rise 40% in the first half of 2017. Multiple analysts predict a sand shortage in 2018 with another 50% or more rise in prices.

U.S. Silica was crushed in late February when they missed on earnings. They spent a lot of money in the quarter acquiring additional sand reserves and merging in acquisitions from earlier in the year. They spent 2016 acquiring other sand companies and operations around the country so they would be ready when the drilling boom returned.

They were crushed again this week when oil prices fell 7% in just two days to the lows for the year.

Oil prices are down on record inventory levels. Inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels to 528.4 million barrels on Wednesday. However, this ALWAYS happens in Feb/Mar. Refiners go offline for spring maintenance in this slow demand period. For two months, inventories build until they restart at the end of March and begin consuming huge amounts of oil to make summer blend gasoline. The price of crude always declines in this period.

If I could, I would buy a longer dated call and hold on to this position until fall. However, this newsletter is not a buy and hold strategy. I am going to recommend the June calls and we will exit before the May earnings.

Earnings May 24th.

The decline over the last two days knocked the stock back to the 200-day and support from November.

Position 3/10/17:

Long June $50 call @ $3.20, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


VAR - Varian Medical systems - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Only a minor gain but it was a weak market.

Original Trade Description: February 18th

Varian Medical Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and services medical devices and software products for treating cancer and other medical conditions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Oncology Systems and Imaging Components. The Oncology Systems segment provides hardware and software products for treating cancer with radiotherapy, fixed field intensity-modulated radiation therapy, image-guided radiation therapy, volumetric modulated arc therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, stereotactic body radiotherapy, and brachytherapy. Its products include linear accelerators, brachytherapy afterloaders, treatment simulation, verification equipment, and accessories; and information management, treatment planning, image processing, clinical knowledge exchange, patient care management, decision-making support, and practice management software. This segment serves university research and community hospitals, private and governmental institutions, healthcare agencies, physicians' offices, oncology practices, radiotherapy centers, and cancer care clinics. The Imaging Components segment offers X-ray imaging components for use in radiographic or fluoroscopic imaging, mammography, special procedures, computed tomography, computer aided diagnostics, and industrial applications. It also provides Linatron X-ray accelerators, imaging processing software, and image detection products for security and inspection purposes. This segment serves original equipment manufacturers, independent service companies, and end-users. In addition, the company offers products and systems for delivering proton therapy; and develops technologies in the areas of digital X-ray imaging, volumetric and functional imaging, and improved X-ray sources. Company description from FinViz.com.

Varian reported lower than expected earnings on January 26th and shares fell -$6 to $87. Two days later, they spun off Varex and shares fell to $77 as a result of the separation. Since that split the stock has been moving higher and the rate of climb has accelerated over the last two weeks as they signed multiple new deals around the world.

Varian guided for earnings of $2.94-$3.06 for Q2 through Q4. For Q2 earnings are expected to be 84-90 cents on a 4% to 5% increase in revenues. The split at the end of January complicates apples to apples comparisons for Q1.

Earnings April 26th.

On February 13th the company announced competitive bid wins for six Shanghai hospitals. Varian is the leading manufacturer of medical devices and software for treating cancer and will provide its state of the art advanced radiotherapy technology to those hospitals. On February 14th, Varian's Eclipse treatment planning software was named the 2017 category leader for oncology treatment planning by KLAS. KLAS is an independent research firm specializing in monitoring and reporting on healthcare vendors.

Varian announced the sale of its advanced linear accelerators to Hungary's National Institute of Oncology.

Varian is on track to return to its pre-split price of $90 if the current rally continues. Because of its decline in February, I believe it offers some protection against a potential market decline.

Position 2/21/17:

Long May $85 call @ $2.75, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


$VIX - Volatility Index - Index Description

Comments:

The VIX finally showed some investor concern about a potential market decline. Wednesday is going to be the key with the Fed meeting and debt ceiling expiration.

I think we need to hold this position as insurance against a larger decline that stops out other positions. If we ever do get a material drop, we will be glad we are holding the VIX calls.

Original Trade Description: Jan 26th

The VIX is a computed index, much like the S&P 500 itself, although it is not derived based on stock prices. Instead, it uses the price of options on the S&P 500, and then estimates how volatile those options will be between the current date and the option's expiration date. The CBOE combines the price of multiple options and derives an aggregate value of volatility, which the index tracks.

The VIX closed at 10.63 and very close to record lows. You have to go back to June of 2014 for a lower recent close at 10.28. Before that, you have to travel back in time to Feb-2007 for a close at 10.05. The next lowest close was 9.48 in Dec-1993.

The point here is that volatility is near record lows only reached four times in the last 23 years. That qualifies for an abnormal event. I believe it is time we bought some VIX calls. The odds of the VIX remaining this low for the next two months are about as close to zero as you can get.

There is a very old saying in the market. "When the VIX is high, it is time to buy. When the VIX is low, it is time to go." You cannot get much lower than this.

The VIX is telling us that everyone expects the market to continue moving higher. Nobody is worried that some unexpected headline or event is going to trigger a significant market decline. When nobody expects an event is when we should be the most concerned.

Position 2/22/17:

Long Apr $13 call @ $2.30, no stop loss, profit target $17.

Previously Closed 2/1/17: Long March $12 call @ $2.60, exit $2.50, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 2/22/17: Long March $12 call @ $1.75 adj, exit $1.65, -.10 loss.



BEARISH Play Updates (Alpha by Symbol)

TGT - Target Corp - Company Profile

Comments:

German chain Aldi said it was adding $1.6 billion to its already announced $3 billion U.S. expansion. They are remodeling 1,300 existing stores and plan to have 2,000 stores by the end of 2018. Aldi is a sharp discount grocer and this is going to be a major challenge to stores like Target, Walmart and Whole foods. The chain has caused a massive disruption in Britain and was the fastest growing supermarket for the last 12 weeks. They have more than 100,000 stores in 27 European countries with sales of $68.7 billion.

Original Trade Description: March 7th

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer. It offers household essentials, including pharmacy, beauty, personal care, baby care, cleaning, and paper products; music, movies, books, computer software, sporting goods, and toys, as well as electronics, such as video game hardware and software; and apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns, as well as intimate apparel, jewelry, accessories, and shoes. The company also provides food and pet supplies comprising dry grocery, dairy, frozen food, beverages, candy, snacks, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and pet supplies; and home furnishings and decor, including furniture, lighting, kitchenware, small appliances, home decor, bed and bath, home improvement, and automotive products, as well as seasonal merchandise, such as patio furniture and holiday decor. In addition, it offers in-store amenities, including Target Cafe, Target Photo, Target Optical, Portrait Studio, Starbucks, and other food service offerings. Target Corporation sells products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Company description from FinViz.com.

Target reported earnings of $1.46 compared with $2.31 in the year ago quarter. Analysts estimates were $1.50. Full year earnings of $4.58 was also below the 2015 total of $5.25. Sales for the holiday quarter declined -4.3% to $20.7 billion and also missed estimates. The company guided for 2017 same store sales to decline in low single digits with earnings at a mid range of $4.00, also below the 2016 total. Q4 same store sales fell -1.5%. For Q1 they guided for earnings of 80 cents to $1, below the year ago $1.29 and analyst estimates for $1.31. For the same period, Walmart saw same store sales rise 11.8%.

Earnings May 30th.

Shares are crashing because investors are worried Target will turn into Sears with the monster stores becoming ghost towns similar to the deserted stores operated by Sears. With guidance moving lower, analyst estimates moving lower and the biggest shopping quarter of the year behind them, it could be a long hot summer for Target's share price. Shares closed at a five-year low on Tuesday after breaking support at $56.

Position 3/8/17:

Long May $52.50 put @ $1.38, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


YELP - Yelp Inc - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares fell -2.3% to $33.80 and give back the gains from the prior three days. Resistance held.

Original Trade Description: February 22nd

Yelp Inc. operates a platform that connects people with local businesses primarily in the United States. Its platform covers various local business categories, including restaurants, shopping, beauty and fitness, arts, entertainment and events, home and local services, health, nightlife, travel and hotel, auto, and others categories. The company provides free and paid business listing services to businesses of various sizes, as well as enables businesses to deliver targeted search advertising to large local audiences through its Website and mobile app. It also provides other services, including Yelp platform, which allows consumers to transact directly on Yelp; Yelp deals that allow local business owners to create promotional discounted deals for their products and services; and gift certificates products for local business owners to sell full-price gift certificates directly to customers. The company's Yelp platform enables consumers to complete food delivery transactions, book spa and salon appointments, order flowers, make winery reservations, and others. It also serves customers in Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. Company description from FinViz.com.

Yelp reported earnings on February 9th of 27 cents that easily beat estimates for 25 cents. Revenue of $194.8 million barely beat estimates for $194.3 million. With an earnings beat you would have expected the stock to rally strongly. That was not the case.

The company guided to revenue of $195-$199 million and analysts were looking for $204.4 million. Full year guidance was $880-$900 million.

The challenge was slowing growth. In Q2 they added 7,400 accounts. In Q3 6,600 accounts and in Q4 only 2,800 accounts. Yelp says its addressable universe is more than 20 million local businesses but they only have 138,000 active advertisers. It is far too soon for growth to be slowing at that fast a pace.

They are also seeing a decline in website traffic and app usage.

The problem is competition. Amazon, Google and Facebook are breaking into the market with new offerings. Other copycat sites like Munch Ado are stealing their customers.

Yelp pulled back from its focus on national brands and is concentrating on local business advertising, which is the bulk of their business. They are aggressively cutting costs as evidenced by the earnings beat but that only works so long if the new advertiser growth is slowing and consumer usage is fading.

Piper Jaffray called the guidance lackluster and said a "confluence of factors" will cause further decline in Yelp traffic in the future.

Earnings May 11th.

Shares have been declining steadily since earnings and have now moved under support at $35.

Position 2/23/17:

Long APR $33 put @ $1.55, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.




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