Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 4/6/2017

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Wound Up, Waiting For Earnings

by Thomas Hughes

Click here to email Thomas Hughes

Introduction

The market continues to trade cautiously, wound up within near-term ranges waiting on earnings season to unfold. Earnings kick-off in exactly one week with releases from Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup. In the meantime tomorrow's NFP data and the Trump/Jinping summit has the markets attention and could spur some volatility. The summit is unlikely to produce any policy changes of firm news but could sway sentiment based on how relations between the two world leaders is perceived. The data bundle could be a real market mover. I expect it to at least sustain current trends with the possibility of being good to great.

International markets were mixed in the wake of yesterday's surprising FOMC minutes. The minutes revealed the Fed already talking about unwinding the balance sheet, an event that has been speculated on by the market but not been on the table til now. In Asia Chinese indices were mixed but flat, one indices closing with a gain near 0.25% and the other with a loss near -0.25%. Japanese stocks did not hold steady, falling -1.4% on Trump/Jinping unease.

European indices were equally cautious, holding near the flat line for most of the session. Indices were also impacted by Mario Draghi who gave a speech early this morning. In his comments he came across more dovish than expected. His comments, to the effect monetary easing was still the right thing to do, taking wind from sails filled with expectations the ECB may begin tightening soon.

Market Statistics

Our indices were indicated to open flattish for most of the morning, rising slightly after the 8:30AM data release. The open was a bit hectic even with volume as light as it was. The indices opened with a small gain and then proceeded to test break-even for support, bounce, test it again and bounce again before moving modestly higher. By 10AM the indices were all in the green but trading remained lackluster, the daily high was set less than 0.5% above yesterday's close and capped gains the rest of the day. Trading remained positive, but within the daily range, into the closing bell despite late day comments from the White House that put a damper on sentiment. The comments from Trump, "something should happen" with Assad.

Economic Calendar

The Economy

There was not a lot of data today but what there was is good. The Challenger report on planned lay-offs reveals that not only are job cuts trending lower from last year, plans for hiring have reached new all-time highs. The number of job cuts jumped 17% on a month to month basis in March but is -2% below the March 2016 total and is the 3rd month to be lower on a YOY basis. For the 1st quarter and YTD basis cuts are down -30% from last year as the energy sector rebounds. Cuts in the energy sector are down -84% from last year while those in the retail sector, this years leader, are up 184%.


Initial claims for unemployment fell -25,000, well ahead of expectations, to hit 234,000. Last week's number was revised higher by 1,000. The four week moving average of claims fell -4,500 to hit 250,000. On a not adjusted basis claims fell -9.2% versus an expected gain of 0.5% and are down -15% on a YOY basis. There has been some volatility in the first time claims figure over the past few weeks but based on this week's data it looks like the long-term downtrend may still be intact. Regardless, the figures remain consistent with ongoing labor market health and recovery.


Continuing claims, those filing for a second week, fell -24,000 to 2.028 million from last week's not-revised figure. The four week moving average of claims fell -7,750 to 2.023 million and a new 18 year low. Volatility in the initial claims figure has not passed through to the continuing claims figures, at least not yet. This figure remains firmly in downtrend and may hit new lows this spring.

The total number of claims rose by 4,563 to hit 2.326 million. This gain is not exactly expected but not out of line with the historical trends. Until something changes in the labor scene this figure remains in downtrend as well with an expected lows to be reached in late May and early October of this year. On a year over basis the total claims are down -5.2%.


Some thoughts on the NFP bundle. Job creation is likely to at least be steady and, bases on the ADP read, could be strong. The caveat is that there was some revision to last month's ADP so that must be considered here as well. So long as revisions don't come in horrifically low it should be a good read all around. The unemployment rate may come down, or it may rise, that will depend on the participation rate. The participation rate has been on the rise in recent months and could rise again, which is a good thing. I will not mind a rise in the unemployment rate if there are more workers looking for jobs. The real significant data points I think will be the hourly earnings and workweek. These too have been on the rise, signifying tightening of the labor market and strengthening of the consumer simultaneously.

The Dollar Index

The Dollar Index moved higher today, gaining about 0.2% to approach yesterday's 2 week high. The index is supported today by several factors including dovishness from the ECB, FOMC expectations and US economic trends. The index looks like it is set to move up to retest the $102 level and could begin that move tomorrow (NFP catalyst). The indicators are both bullish in support of higher prices although not overly strong. A break above $100.80 would be bullish, failure to breach that level could result in a test of support with an initial target near $100.


The Gold Index

Gold prices edged higher but only marginally and were not able to break resistance, again. Spot gold gained roughly 0.5% but was not able to move above $1,255. The metal is supported by geopolitical uncertainty and the recent pullback in dollar value, but not fundamentals. Longer term outlook for the dollar remains bullish, until that changes gold prices are likely to remain under pressure. Support targets are not that low however, in the $1,200 to $1,235 range, depending on the data here and abroad, and how the central bankers react to it.

The Gold Miners ETF GDX held yesterday's gains but did not move higher. The ETF remains below resistance at the 38.2% retracement level and appears to have stalled. The indicators are consistent with an asset trading at the top of a range but are not showing much strength. A fall from this level may find support at $22.50 or $21.50.


The Oil Index

Oil prices gained more than 1.25% despite yesterday's bearish inventory data. Inventories are at new record levels with US production on the rise but traders are looking beyond this to signs a drawdown is imminent. One reason is signs of tightening markets in Asia, due to the OPEC cut, which have driven US exports to new highs. Another is the onset of driving season, declining gas storage and a refining sector ready to start cracking. However, oil prices are likely to remain range bound until concrete signs of declining storage emerge. Until that happens I will remain cautious on oil, leaning toward bearish.

The Oil Index made small gains today but remains below resistance. The index is poised to move higher but is having a hard time breaking through the 1,200 level on the first go. The indicators are bullish and showing a buy, following the recent bounce from strong support, with upside target near 1,250 in the near-term. The move may be triggered by oil prices but more likely earnings expectations, which remain strong.


In The News, Story Stocks and Earnings

Carmax reported earnings this morning and blew away the estimates. The used car dealer reported top and bottom line beats driven by a near 10% increase in comp store sales. The company is benefiting from improving labor markets, improving consumer strength, consumer sentiment and a rising level of used-car inventory. Shares of the stock opened with a -3% loss, quickly moved lower to test a support level and then bounced back to close with a gain greater than 2%. Today's action may not lead to an immediate rally but does look like a bottom has been hit.


Sunoco struck oil this morning when it announced the divestiture of part of its North American business. The company is selling most of its convenience store locations to the owners of 7-11 in a deal worth $3.3 billion dollars. The proceeds are to be used by Sunoco to pay off debts and to move forward the plan to become a leading nationwide supplier of fuels. Shares of the stock jumped more than 20% on the news.


Constellation Brands reported this morning a delivered a tasty treat for investors. The company beat on the top and bottom lines as beer sales in particular and beverage sales in general rebound from weakness seen at the end of last year. The company was also able to raise the dividend by 30% and raise full year guidance to a range well above the consensus estimate. Shares of the stock jumped 4% in the premarket session, moved up as much as 10% from there and then closed at a 4 month high with a gain near 6%.


The Indices

Today's action was lot like yesterday's but not quite as violent; they opened, they moved higher, they hit resistance and then retreat back to break-even or lower. In both cases action was restrained by near-term trading ranges, winding up for the NFP and earnings season, the difference is that yesterday's action was driven by FOMC news while today's news was less than exciting.

Leading today's session, barely, is the Dow Jones Transportation Average with a gain near 0.4%. The transports trend exactly sideways within the 7 day range for the 7th day in a row. It is forming a congestion band that is biased to the upside based on trends, expectations and the indicators. The indicators are both bullish and pointing higher, consistent with higher prices, with the short term moving average as resistance. A break above the moving average would be bullish, and trend following, with upside target near 9,250 and 9,500.


Today's runner up was the NASDAQ Composite with a gain of only 0.24%. The tech heavy index created a small spinning top doji sitting on support at 5,850 and near the mid-point of the near-term trading range. The index has been consolidating within this range and setting up for a trend following move higher. The indicators are a bit mixed but consistent with support at current levels and setting up for bullish crossovers. Looking over the past month or so the MACD has made a reverse Head and Shoulders which is highly suggestive of support and a potential reversal in momentum. The stochastic is a bit erratic, showing volatility in the index within the trading range, but set up now to make a bullish crossover at a higher level. Both these signals, if triggered, are trend following and would come along with a bounce from the moving average, and most probably new all time highs, a bullish combination.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard, closing with gains near 0.10%. The blue chips created a doji spinning top sitting on support at the 30 day moving average. The index is trading near the bottom of its near-term trading range and looks like it could move up to the upper end. The indicators are mixed but confirm support at this level and suggest a shift in momentum is possible The same reversal pattern is evident in the MACD and stochastic is set up for the same trend following crossover, all this is left now is for a confirmation. A bounce from the moving average would be bullish, upside target near 21,000. A fall below the average would be bearish with possible support at 20,500 and the bottom of the near-term trading range.


The S&P 500 finished the day with a gain of 0.19%, creating a small doji candle. The index is sitting on near-term support, within the near-term trading range, and poised to move higher. The indicators are set up like on the other charts, poised for a trend following buy signal that could come with some strength. Upside target is 2,400 with a possible break to new all-time highs.


As a chartist, trading with the trend is always (usually) the smartest thing to do. Right now the charts are set up for what could be significant entry signal. The indices have been in consolidation for over a month. They have bounced from the bottom of near-term trading ranges and edging higher. The indicators are set up for a strong trend following entry and the whole thing is supported by forward economic and earnings outlook. A good report tomorrow could spark a rally that is carried forward through earnings season. The only caveat is that it hasn't happened yet, and the signal is yet to fire let alone be confirmed. Needless to say, I'm bullish. I'm cautious for the near-term, the Trump/Jinping summit a possible hot-spot among many others, but bullish for the short and the long.

Until then, remember the trend!

Thomas Hughes


New Option Plays

Apple Food Chain

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

If Apple shares are too risky at their nosebleed highs, there are suppliers worth a look. Cirrus Logic is one of those suppliers but they also supply Samsung and other manufacturers as well.



NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

CRUS - Cirrus Logic - Company Profile

Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for a range of consumer and industrial markets. It offers portable audio products, including analog and mixed-signal audio converters, and digital signal processing products for mobile applications; codecs-chips that integrate analog-to-digital converters and digital-to-analog converters into a single IC; smart codecs, a codec with digital signal processer; amplifiers; and micro-electromechanical systems microphones, as well as standalone digital signal processors. The company offers its products for mobile devices, including smartphones, tablets, digital headsets, wearables, smart accessories, and portable media players. Its products are also used in laptops, audio/video receivers, home theater systems, set-up boxes, portable speakers, digital camcorders, musical instruments, and professional audio products applications; and serve the automotive market, which include satellite radio systems, telematics, and multi-speaker car-audio systems. In addition, the company's products are used in industrial and energy-related applications, including digital utility meters, power supplies, energy control, energy measurement, and energy exploration applications. It markets and sells its products through direct sales force, external sales representatives, and distributors in the United States and internationally. Company description from FinViz.com.

Cirrus is a major component contributor to Apple, Samsung and other smartphone manufacturers. They also supply chips to dozens of other types of products.

In 2014 Apple provided for 80% of Cirrus annual revenue. In 2016 that declined to 65% and continues to shrink. Samsung made up 15% of 2016 revenue.

The strong sales of the iPhone 7 and the expected blowout sales for the iPhone 8 and Samsung 8 this year should produce millions in additional revenue. Sales rose 28% in 2016 and analysts expect 31% revenue growth in 2017. Earnings are expected to rise 82% for 2017

With the iPhone 8 expected to post blowout sales numbers, that means component demand over the next 9 months will also be strong. Suppliers normally begin shipping components in the last week of June but this year there are indications they have been requested a month earlier so that Apple can have more phones on hand when sales begin.

Earnings May 3rd.

With earnings in early May, this will only be a three-week position. We will exit before earnings. On the chart, the spike on February 1st was earnings of $1.87 compared to estimates for $1.63. The immediate decline the next day was on guidance for revenue of $300-$340 million and analysts had been expecting $331.9 million. That dip has been forgotten given all the hype over the iPhone 8 and Samsung 8. A move over that level should trigger additional short covering.

Buy May $65 call, currently $3.00, initial stop loss $58.85.


NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

No New Bearish Plays



In Play Updates and Reviews

Re-ver-sal

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

The big cap indexes have posted a major intraday reversal for two consecutive days. The Dow was up 99 intraday and declined to gain only 15. The S&P was up 15 and declined to gain only 4. Both indexes had lower highs and lower lows and that is always a negative chart pattern.

The Nasdaq Composite failed to rebound with a gain of only 14 points after trading 8 points lower at the open. The big news was the Nasdaq 100 big cap index, which gained only 2 points and closed 14 points below its high. This was another lower high, lower low pattern and showed a strong lack of conviction by the big cap tech stocks. Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google all closed negative. That should be a warning of potential weakness ahead. The generals that led the charge are now retreating from the battle.



Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


LB - L Brands
The long put position was NOT entered at the open.

PRGO - Perrigo
The long put position was closed at the open.



If you are looking for a different type of option strategy, try these newsletters:

Credit spreads and naked puts = OptionWriter

Long term option investments = LEAPS Investor

3-6 month Option Trades = Ultimate Investor

Iron Condors = Couch Potato Trader

Long and short equity trades = Premier Investor



BULLISH Play Updates

ADBE - Adobe Systems - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor gain in an uncertain market.

Original Trade Description: March 23rd.

Adobe Systems Incorporated operates as a diversified software company worldwide. Its Digital Media segment provides tools and solutions that enable individuals, small and medium businesses, and enterprises to create, publish, promote, and monetize their digital content. This segment's flagship product is Creative Cloud, a subscription service that allows customers to download and install the latest versions of its creative products. This segment serves traditional content creators, Web application developers, and digital media professionals, as well as their management in marketing departments and agencies, companies, and publishers. The company's Digital Marketing segment offers solutions for how digital advertising and marketing are created, managed, executed, measured, and optimized. This segment provides analytics, social marketing, targeting, advertising and media optimization, digital experience management, cross-channel campaign management, and audience management solutions, as well as video delivery and monetization to digital marketers, advertisers, publishers, merchandisers, Web analysts, chief marketing officers, chief information officers, and chief revenue officers. Its Print and Publishing segment offers products and services, such as eLearning solutions, technical document publishing, Web application development, and high-end printing, as well as publishing needs of technical and business, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) printing businesses. The company markets and licenses its products and services directly to enterprise customers through its sales force, as well as to end-users through app stores and through its Website at adobe.com. It also distributes products and services through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, independent software vendors, retailers, and OEMs. Company description from FinViz.com.

Everybody knows Adobe or at least they did 20 years ago. Photoshop and Illustrator were the key pieces of software everyone needed to create content for magazines and print media. What would Sports Illustrated have done without Photoshop for their Swimsuit Edition?

Fast forward to 2017 and Adobe has so many different pieces and partners that you cannot even describe them all. With annual revenue at $7 billion and growing they are rapidly outpacing everyone's earnings expectations.

Adobe is hosting its annual Digital Marketing Summit. At that event they announced several new partnerships and the integration of multiple "cloud" entities into one platform.

This description is from a Real Money article.

Headlining these moves is the creation of a common platform, known as the Experience Cloud for all of the products that to date had been grouped within Adobe's "Marketing Cloud." Going forward, Marketing Cloud will comprise one of three parts of Experience Cloud, and feature products such as Experience Manager (used to create and manage marketing content across platforms), Target (lets marketers personalize user experiences) and Social (used to run social media marketing campaigns).

Another part of Experience Cloud, known as Advertising Cloud, lets companies run and optimize search, display and video ad campaigns. It pairs Adobe's Media Optimizer search and display ad-buying tools with recently-acquired TubeMogul's video ad-buying platform. The third part, known as Analytics Cloud, combines the popular Adobe Analytics tool for uncovering insights from customer data with Audience Manager, a platform for creating customer/audience profiles.

Advertising Cloud has gotten a lot of attention, since it more firmly makes Adobe a player in an ad tech space where Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) loom large, and where independent players such as The Trade Desk (TTD) and The Rubicon Project (RUBI) are also present. Adobe is pitching itself as an independent alternative to Google and Facebook, which of course are also giant sellers of ad inventory, while arguing that integrations between the three parts of Experience Cloud set it apart from both independent ad tech players and marketing software rivals such as Salesforce.com (CRM) and Oracle (ORCL).

In their earnings last week, they reported a 21.6% rise in revenue to $1.68 billion and the 12th consecutive increase in revenue from the Creative Cloud graphics software. Earnings were 94 cents and analysts had been expecting 87 cents and $1.645 billion in revenue. Adobe said annualized recurring revenue rose by $265 million to $4.25 billion. That is based on continuing subscription growth.

Earnings June 15th.

Shares spiked after earnings from $122 to $130 and then faded back to $125 over the next week. They have started to rebound again because finding 20% revenue growth in the market is hard to do.

Position 3/24/17 with an ADBE trade at $127.50
Long May $130 call @ $2.61, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


ADP - Automatic Data Processing - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. No material movement.

The option has declined to only 10 cents so I removed the stop loss. It is a May call so we have plenty of time for it to recover. We gain nothing by exiting now.

Original Trade Description: March 17th.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business process outsourcing services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services. The Employer Services segment offers a range of business outsourcing and technology-enabled human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration services, talent management, human resources management solutions, time and attendance management solutions, insurance services, retirement services, and tax and compliance solutions. This segment's integrated HCM solutions include RUN Powered by ADP, ADP Workforce Now, ADP Vantage HCM, and ADP GlobalView, which assist employers of all sizes in all stages of the employment cycle from recruitment to retirement; and ADP SmartCompliance and ADP Health Compliance. The PEO Services segment provides a human resources (HR) outsourcing solution through a co-employment model to small and mid-sized businesses. This segment offers ADP TotalSource that provides various HR management services and employee benefits functions, such as HR administration, employee benefits, and employer liability management into a single-source solution. Company description from FinViz.com.

ADP reported earnings of 87 cents that rose 57% and beat estimates for 81 cents. Revenue of $2.99 billion rose 6.4% but missed estimates for $3.01 billion. They surprised analysts with revenue growth guidance for 2017 at 6%, down from prior forecasts of 7% to 8%. They blamed the revenue miss and lowered guidance on uncertainty over the elections and the impact of the Trump election. They also see a 1% revenue hit from the sale of their CHSA and COBRA businesses in 2016. They guided for earnings growth of 15% to 17% for the full year. They currently serve 637,000 clients in 125 nations. The number of employees serviced rose 2.3%. PEO Services employees rose 12% to 452,000. These are "co-owned" employees managed by ADP for clients.

They repurchased 4.6 million shares at a cost of $422 million. They expect to repurchase $1.2-$1.4 billion in shares in 2017.

Earnings May 3rd.

ADP holds a dominant position in the payroll processing sector. With employment expected to rise again in 2017 this could be an attractive investment for funds that are tired of chasing industrials and bank stocks in the current rally.

ADP rallied nearly $1 on Friday in a weak market and closed at $105.12 and a new high. It was also just over the $105 strike. I am recommending we reach out to the $110 strike since it appears ADP is about to move higher after three weeks of consolidation. This option price is very cheap and there will be no initial stop loss.

Position 3/20/17:

Long May $110 call @ 75 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


DIS - Walt Disney - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news and only a minor gain.

Original Trade Description: March 13th.

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. The company's Media Networks segment operates cable programming services, including the ESPN, Disney channels, and Freeform networks; broadcast businesses, which include the ABC TV Network and eight owned television stations; radio businesses consisting of the ESPN Radio Network; and the Radio Disney network. It also produces and sells original live-action and animated television programming to first-run syndication and other television markets, as well as subscription video on demand services and in home entertainment formats, such as DVD, Blu-Ray, and iTunes. Its Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida and the Disneyland Resort in California. This segment also operates Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii, Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney; and manages Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, and Shanghai Disney Resort, as well as licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. The company's Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution in the theatrical, home entertainment, and television markets primarily under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Touchstone banners. This segment also produces stage plays and musical recordings; licenses and produces live entertainment events; and provides visual and audio effects, and other post-production services. Its Consumer Products & Interactive Media segment licenses its trade names, characters, and visual and literary properties; develops and publishes games for mobile platforms; and sells its products through The Disney Store, DisneyStore.com, and MarvelStore.com, as well as directly to retailers. Company description from FinViz.com

Disney reported earnings of $1.55 on revenue of $14.78 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.49 and $15.26 billion. The comparisons to the year ago quarter were tough because of Frozen and Star Wars, The Force Awakens in that period. Star Wars was the first billion dollar film for the current fiscal year. The studio segment generated $2.52 billion in revenue. In January, after the December quarter ended, the company said it had more than $7.6 billion in global box office gross thanks to Star Wars: Rogue One, Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory. CEO Bob Iger downplayed the concerns over ESPN saying they were very overblown because ESPN was still in demand by consumers, networks and advertisers.

Shares have recovered from the post earnings depression and are poised to continue making new highs, market permitting.

Update 3/15/17: Disney has upped its ownership to 85.7% and said it was going to buy out the rest of the investors and offered them a premium to the current value of their shares. Some investors are complaining. Euro Disney has significant debt and Disney said it would recapitalize 1.5 billion euros once it had full control. The actual park management loves the plan because it would put Disney back into control and provide it solid financial backing. This is just a temporary hiccup in the stock.

Update 3/20/17: Beauty & the Beast took in $170 million in ticket sales on its opening weekend. That was a record high for a family film. Disney has 11 other animated classics that it is planning to remake with human actors. The success of Beauty & the Beast will make theses 11 films a reality.

Mulan, Aladdin, Lion King, 101 Dalmatians, Little Mermaid, Pinocchio, Sword in the Stone, Peter Pan, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, Dumbo and a sequel to Marry Poppins.

Update 3/23/17: CEO Bob Iger agreed to a one-year contract extension until July 2019. He was previously going to retire in July 2018.

Update 3/24/17: Rumors and suggestions are starting to circulate suggesting Apple could buy Disney instead of Netflix in order to acquire a content generating machine and level out the earnings/cash flow. Currently Apple has very big fluctuations in revenue because of their cyclical production nature. If they owned a company like Disney they would have steady and predictable earnings. Disney has a market cap of $177 billion and Apple has $230 billion in cash. Liberty Media Chairman John Malone suggested if Disney spun off ESPN, Apple would buy Disney. That suggests an outright Apple purchase would also resort in an ESPN spinoff.

Update 3/30/17: Disney is relaunching Club Penguin, a game with hundreds of millions of users into Club Penguin Island. The original game had to be shutdown when browser technology began to limit what developers wanted to do inside the game. Now they are restarting in an app for Android and IOS. The basic game will be free but there is a $4.99 per month subscription fee it you want the advanced features. If only 100 million of the prior users signed up for the advanced package that would be $500 million a month in additional revenue. What kid cannot get dad to pay $4.99 per month for hours of peace and quiet?

Earnings May 9th.

Position 3/14/17:

Long May $115 call @ $1.83, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


HLF - Herbalife - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares posted a minor gain after fading with the market.

Original Trade Description: March 15th.

Herbalife Ltd., a nutrition company, develops and sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products, and personal care products. It offers science-based products in four principal categories, including weight management; targeted nutrition; energy, sports, and fitness; and outer nutrition. The company's weight management product portfolio includes meal replacement products, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss enhancers, and healthy snacks; targeted nutrition products comprise dietary and nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, minerals, and other natural ingredients; and outer nutrition products consist of facial skin, body, and hair care products. It also provides literature, promotional, and other materials, including start-up kits, sales tools, and educational materials. The company offers its products through retail stores, sales representatives, sales officers, and independent service providers. It operates in North America, Mexico, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and China. Company description from FinViz.com.

It is well known that Bill Ackman has a $1.5 billion short on Herbalife. He has had it for a couple years. It is also well known that Carl Icahn does not like Ackman.

Ackman took a major hit in Valeant when he announced on Monday he had closed his 27.2 million share position for a loss of more than a $3 billion. Ackman is hurting because several of his recent high profile positions have gone against him and investors are pulling out their money or at least sending him hate mail suggesting he get his act together. He is also holding a massive long position in Chipotle and the stock is moving lower.

On Monday, Ackman announced he closed the Valeant position. Immediately, Carl Icahn announced he was buying 372,000 more Herbalife shares and had asked the SEC for permission to acquire up to 50% of the company. He already owns 24.6%. This is killing the short position held by Ackman. Shares are rising on the Icahn news.

While this seems like the perfect long position where Icahn is going to force Ackman to cover, there is one big problem. On March 17th a movie called "Betting on Zero" which profiles Ackman's short thesis, will open in a national release. Remember, everyone has known about this movie for a year. It played in a few single venues and the stock did not decline. When it was picked up for national release about 6 months ago, everyone thought this would be the end of the company. However, in late 2016 the company settled with the FTC for $200 million on a probe into their marketing practices. They dodged another large bullet since the probe was also based on Ackman's short thesis.

Shares collapsed in late February on a guidance miss and bottomed last Friday. They have been rebounding since Icahn made his recent announcement.

I am recommending a short term strangle. The odds are good that the stock is going to be directional after the film begins showing on the 17th. Everyone will either say OMG and dump the stock or they will say, "so what is the big deal" and buy the stock. Since Icahn has $1.5 billion invested, you know he is going to be very vocal about it and will probably publicize any further purchases if the stock declines. We do not care which way the stock moves. We just need it to move significantly.

Position 3/16/17:

Long April $57.50 call @ $1.11, no stop loss.
Long April $52.50 put @ $1.36, no stop loss.


JACK - Jack in the Box - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor rebound that faded with the market.

Original Trade Description: March 30th.

Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants and Qdoba Mexican Eats fast-casual restaurants primarily in the United States. As of October 02, 2016, it operated and franchised approximately 2,255 Jack in the Box restaurants in 21 states and Guam; and approximately 699 Qdoba Mexican Eats restaurants in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in San Diego, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

JACK reported earnings of $1.18 but that missed estimates for $1.24. Revenue of $487.9 million rose 3.6% but missed estimates for $500.1 million. The earnings include a $2 million restructuring charge for facility closing costs and employee severance pay. Same store sales rose 3.1% for the quarter. This compared to the retail tracking group NPD SalesTrack which showed similar chains averaged 1.6% for the quarter. The average check also rose 4.9%.

JACK guided for Q1 same store sales to be flat to down -2% at Jack in the Box stores and down 1% to 3% at Qdoba stores. For the full year they guided for sames store sales growth of 2% at Jack stores and flat at Qdoba stores. They guided for earnings of $4.25-$4.45 and well below estimates for $4.71. Shares were crushed for a 10% loss.

Earnings May 24th.

However, in case you did not know there is a restaurant recession in progress. All the restaurant chains reported negative sales comps citing excessive competition and strong discounting. At JACK operating earnings rose 27% for the quarter and very few of the other chains were even close.

Like everyone else they blamed the delayed tax refunds for a sharp slowdown in sales in February. They also suffered from the record rainfall and flooding in California where the chain has a large presence.

They plan to open 20 to 25 new Jack in the Box stores in 2017 and 50-60 new Qdoba stores.

There is nothing wrong with this company that justified a 10% drop in the stock. Now that shares are rebounding, it should attract a lot of buyers expecting a return to the pre earnings levels.

Position 3/31/17:

Long June $110 calls @ $1.85. See portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SLCA - U.S. Silica Holdings - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares rebounded nicely from the Wednesday market crash.

Original Trade Description: March 9th

U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. produces and sells commercial silica in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Oil & Gas Proppants and Industrial & Specialty Products. It offers whole grain commercial silica products to be used as fracturing sand in connection with oil and natural gas recovery; and resin coated proppants, as well as sells its whole grain silica products in various size distributions, grain shapes, and chemical purity levels for manufacturing glass products. The company also provides ground commercial silica products for use in plastics, rubber, polishes, cleansers, paints, glazes, textile fiberglass, and precision castings; and fine ground silica for use in premium paints, specialty coatings, sealants, silicone rubber, and epoxies. In addition, it offers other industrial mineral products, such as aplite, a mineral used to produce container glass and insulation fiberglass; and adsorbent made from a mixture of silica and magnesium for preparative and analytical chromatography applications. The company serves oil and gas recovery markets; and industrial end markets with customers involved in the production of glass, building products, foundry products, chemicals, and fillers and extenders. Company description from FinViz.com.

Silica sells sand to drillers. The drilling activity has increased 50% since the low in May. The active rig count declined to 404 on May 27th and has rebounded to 756 as of last week. Many of these reactivated rigs are completing previously drilled wells that were never fracked and put in production. The IEA said there were more than 5,000 of these wells at the end of December. It only takes a few days to reopen a well and prepare it for fracturing and then move to the next. The sand demand to fracture these wells is off the charts.

Since the drilling boom in 2014 the amount of sand used in fracturing a well has risen about 400% because of two years of additional data and refinement of the process. A current well with a two-mile lateral requires as much sand as a 100 rail car train, called a unit train.

Sand providers claim they have drillers trying to lock in sand prices for a year in advance but there is not enough sand available to fill the demand. Prices are expected to rise 40% in the first half of 2017. Multiple analysts predict a sand shortage in 2018 with another 50% or more rise in prices.

U.S. Silica was crushed in late February when they missed on earnings. They spent a lot of money in the quarter acquiring additional sand reserves and merging in acquisitions from earlier in the year. They spent 2016 acquiring other sand companies and operations around the country so they would be ready when the drilling boom returned.

They were crushed again this week when oil prices fell 7% in just two days to the lows for the year.

Oil prices are down on record inventory levels. Inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels to 528.4 million barrels on Wednesday. However, this ALWAYS happens in Feb/Mar. Refiners go offline for spring maintenance in this slow demand period. For two months, inventories build until they restart at the end of March and begin consuming huge amounts of oil to make summer blend gasoline. The price of crude always declines in this period.

If I could, I would buy a longer dated call and hold on to this position until fall. However, this newsletter is not a buy and hold strategy. I am going to recommend the June calls and we will exit before the May earnings.

Earnings May 24th.

The decline over the last two days knocked the stock back to the 200-day and support from November.

Update 4/4/17: SLCA rallied $1.24 on news they acquired a division of National Coatings that supplies roofing products with high thermal resistance and emittance. They reduce energy consumption and increase the durability of the roof. SLCA already supplies more than 260 products to industry with frack sand only one of those products.

Position 3/10/17:

Long June $50 call @ $3.20, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SYMC - Symantec - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Not a material move but support is holding.

Original Trade Description: March 16th

Symantec Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Consumer Security and Enterprise Security. The Consumer Security segment offers Norton-branded services that provide multi-layer security and identity protection on desktop and mobile operating systems to defend against online threats to individuals, families, and small businesses. Its Norton Security products help customers protect against complex threats and address the need for identity protection, while also managing mobile and digital data, such as personal financial records, photos, music, and videos. The Enterprise Security segment provides threat protection products, information protection products, cyber security services, and Website security offerings. Its products protect customer data from threats, such as advanced protection threats, malicious spam and phishing attacks, malware, drive-by Website infections, hackers, and cyber criminals; prevent the loss of confidential data by insiders; and help customers achieve and maintain compliance with laws and regulations. This segment delivers its solutions through various methods, such as software, appliance, software-as-a-service, and managed services. The company serves individuals, households, and small businesses; small, medium, and large enterprises; and government and public sector customers. It markets and sells its products and related services through direct sales force, e-commerce platforms, distributors, direct marketers, Internet-based resellers, system builders, Internet service providers, wireless carriers, retailers, original equipment manufacturers, and retail and online stores. Company description from FinViz.com.

You cannot even turn on your phone or PC without being subjected to dozens if not hundreds of potential attackers. Worse than stealing your ID and maybe being able to cause you grief down the road, the biggest attacks today are the ransom ware attacks. If you click on an email link or leave your PC unguarded by a security program, the hacker encrypts all your files and charges you a fee to get them back. All of your documents, pictures, bank account info, Quickbooks, etc, all disappear in a heartbeat. Even if you pay the blackmail, you still may not get them back.

Symantec is the leading cybersecurity vendor for personal computers and small business servers. Enterprise class operations will normally go with higher fee organizations like Fire Eye, Palo Alto Networks, etc. Symantec has the entire personal computer space to themselves. There are some competitors like PC Magic and McAfee but they are distant competitors. Since Intel partnered with McAfee an TPG in September, they are improving but Symantec has a big head start.

Because of the daily headlines on cyberattacks, more and more consumers are reaching out and deploying more sophisticated antivirus programs. It is not just for the closet geeks anymore. Everyone needs a real security program.

Strangely, the biggest risk is still the individual. In a recent study of 19,000 individuals by Intel Security they showed each person 10 different emails and asked them to identify the real ones and the fake ones. Only 3% identified all ten correctly. That means 18,430 would have clicked on a phishing email. Clearly, everyone needs a security program to protect us from ourselves.

Update 3/23/17: Morgan Stanley raised their price target from $33 to $37 saying Symantec's recent wave of acquisitions, including Blue Coat Systems and LifeLock, have improved Symantec's position with their rivals. In June, they bought Blue Coat for $4.65 billion to beef up their enterprise offerings. In February, they paid $2.3 billion for LifeLock to enhance their consumer security business. Morgan Stanley expects Symantec to make more acquisitions after their recent $1 billion debt offering.

Symantec should continue to emerge as the big winner in personal computer security.

Earnings May 3rd.

Position 3/17/17:

Long July $32 call @ $1.29, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


VAR - Varian Medical systems - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. No material movement but support is holding.

Original Trade Description: February 18th

Varian Medical Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and services medical devices and software products for treating cancer and other medical conditions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Oncology Systems and Imaging Components. The Oncology Systems segment provides hardware and software products for treating cancer with radiotherapy, fixed field intensity-modulated radiation therapy, image-guided radiation therapy, volumetric modulated arc therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, stereotactic body radiotherapy, and brachytherapy. Its products include linear accelerators, brachytherapy afterloaders, treatment simulation, verification equipment, and accessories; and information management, treatment planning, image processing, clinical knowledge exchange, patient care management, decision-making support, and practice management software. This segment serves university research and community hospitals, private and governmental institutions, healthcare agencies, physicians' offices, oncology practices, radiotherapy centers, and cancer care clinics. The Imaging Components segment offers X-ray imaging components for use in radiographic or fluoroscopic imaging, mammography, special procedures, computed tomography, computer aided diagnostics, and industrial applications. It also provides Linatron X-ray accelerators, imaging processing software, and image detection products for security and inspection purposes. This segment serves original equipment manufacturers, independent service companies, and end-users. In addition, the company offers products and systems for delivering proton therapy; and develops technologies in the areas of digital X-ray imaging, volumetric and functional imaging, and improved X-ray sources. Company description from FinViz.com.

Varian reported lower than expected earnings on January 26th and shares fell -$6 to $87. Two days later, they spun off Varex and shares fell to $77 as a result of the separation. Since that split the stock has been moving higher and the rate of climb has accelerated over the last two weeks as they signed multiple new deals around the world.

Varian guided for earnings of $2.94-$3.06 for Q2 through Q4. For Q2 earnings are expected to be 84-90 cents on a 4% to 5% increase in revenues. The split at the end of January complicates apples to apples comparisons for Q1.

Earnings April 26th.

On February 13th the company announced competitive bid wins for six Shanghai hospitals. Varian is the leading manufacturer of medical devices and software for treating cancer and will provide its state of the art advanced radiotherapy technology to those hospitals. On February 14th, Varian's Eclipse treatment planning software was named the 2017 category leader for oncology treatment planning by KLAS. KLAS is an independent research firm specializing in monitoring and reporting on healthcare vendors.

Varian announced the sale of its advanced linear accelerators to Hungary's National Institute of Oncology.

Varian is on track to return to its pre-split price of $90 if the current rally continues. Because of its decline in February, I believe it offers some protection against a potential market decline.

Position 2/21/17:

Long May $85 call @ $2.75, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


$VIX - Volatility Index - Index Description

Comments:

The VIX rebounded in the afternoon when the market retreated from its highs. We may not be out of luck just yet.

With Congress going on nearly a two-week recess starting on the 10th, we will have a much less chance of a politically stimulated event. However, when they get back on the 21st, they only have 7 days to get a funding bill passed and raise the debt ceiling. The political sparing has already started.

While holding the VIX call is an insurance play for us, I hope we are never in a position to profit from it. That would mean a lot of our long positions would be under water or stopped out.

Original Trade Description: Jan 26th

The VIX is a computed index, much like the S&P 500 itself, although it is not derived based on stock prices. Instead, it uses the price of options on the S&P 500, and then estimates how volatile those options will be between the current date and the option's expiration date. The CBOE combines the price of multiple options and derives an aggregate value of volatility, which the index tracks.

The VIX closed at 10.63 and very close to record lows. You have to go back to June of 2014 for a lower recent close at 10.28. Before that, you have to travel back in time to Feb-2007 for a close at 10.05. The next lowest close was 9.48 in Dec-1993.

The point here is that volatility is near record lows only reached four times in the last 23 years. That qualifies for an abnormal event. I believe it is time we bought some VIX calls. The odds of the VIX remaining this low for the next two months are about as close to zero as you can get.

There is a very old saying in the market. "When the VIX is high, it is time to buy. When the VIX is low, it is time to go." You cannot get much lower than this.

The VIX is telling us that everyone expects the market to continue moving higher. Nobody is worried that some unexpected headline or event is going to trigger a significant market decline. When nobody expects an event is when we should be the most concerned.

Position 2/22/17:

Long Apr $13 call @ $2.30, no stop loss, profit target $17.

Previously Closed 2/1/17: Long March $12 call @ $2.60, exit $2.50, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 2/22/17: Long March $12 call @ $1.75 adj, exit $1.65, -.10 loss.

Position 3/30/117
Long July $14 call @ $2.55, no stop loss.


WDC - Western Digital - Company Profile

Comments:

WDC announced a new pocket sized SSD drive for portable data so developers and content creators can take their data with them wherever they travel. These are the fastest portable drives with speeds of up to 515 Mbps and come in 256gb, 512gb and 1TB capacities starting at $99. This is an amazing accomplishment and these will be hot products.

WDC also named Phil Bullinger as head of its data center business. Bullinger was formerly a general manager of Dell EMC storage business and before that he was in charge of Oracle's SAN/NAS storage business.

Original Trade Description: March 29th.

Western Digital Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions worldwide. It offers performance hard disk drives (HDDs) that are used in enterprise servers, data analysis, and other enterprise applications; capacity HDDs and drive configurations for use in data storage systems and tiered storage models, as well as for use in storage of data for years; and enterprise solid state drives (SSDs), including NAND-flash SSDs and software solutions that are designed to enhance the performance in various enterprise workload environments. The company also provides InfiniFlash System, a system solution that offers petabyte scalable capacity with performance metrics; higher value data storage platforms and systems; datacenter software and systems; and HDDs and SSDs for desktop PCs, notebook PCs, gaming consoles, set top boxes, security surveillance systems, and other computing devices. In addition, it offers embedded NAND-flash storage products, including custom embedded solutions; and iNAND embedded flash products, such as multi-chip package solutions that combine NAND and mobile dynamic random-access memory in an integrated package for mobile phones, tablets, notebook PCs, and other portable and wearable devices, as well as in automotive and connected home applications, and NAND-flash wafers. Further, it provides HDDs embedded into WD- and HGST-branded external storage products; and NAND-flash products, which include cards, universal serial bus flash drives, and wireless drives. Company description from FinViz.com.

Hewlett Packard started the conversation saying there was a shortage of memory for computers and servers and the rise in prices would impact earnings in 2017. Micron (MU) confirmed it when they reported earnings on the 24th saying memory prices had risen an average of 20% because of a shortage and would add to profits for 2017.

Western Digital bought SanDisk last year and they were a primary manufacturer of memory of all types. This means not only will WDC have increased profits from the rising memory prices but their actual cost will be lower on other products like disk drives and solid state drives because they are now manufacturing their own memory.

They reported earnings in January of $2.30 compared to estimates for $2.13. Revenue rose 48% to $4.9 billion and beat estimates for $4.76 billion. Shares spiked to $81.25 on the news.

Update 3/30/17: Shares spiked on news that Toshiba would sell its flash memory business and that Western Digital could be a major bidder. With a shortage of memory in the market, this would help WDC fill that void and make them a major player in the future.

Update 4/4/17: WDC said it has increased the capacity of its Surveillance-Class hard drives to 10TB. According to IHS Markit, the growing number of high resolution monitoring cameras is causing a sharp uptick in the amount of storage required to archive the video footage. Some surveillance cameras are now HD and even 4K and that requires a lot of storage for a 24x7x365 bank of networked cameras. The new 10TB drive is optimized for 24x7 video from up to 64 HD cameras at once in security environments. 4K video surveillance cameras are estimated to be 2% of the current market today but expected to be 29% by 2020.

Earnings April 26th.

After two months of post earnings depression, shares closed back at $81.39 and a new high on Wednesday. I believe a breakout is imminent. Earnings are four-weeks away and we could see a pre-earnings ramp on strong expectations.

Position 3/30/17:

Long May $85 call @ $3.25, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



BEARISH Play Updates (Alpha by Symbol)

AN - Autonation - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares rebounded to $41 at the open but faded with the market back to $40.

Original Trade Description: March 27th.

AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. It offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; and parts and services, such as automotive repair and maintenance services, and wholesale parts and collision services. The company also provides automotive finance and insurance products comprising vehicle services and other protection products, and arrangement of finance for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and operated 371 new vehicle franchises from 260 stores located primarily in metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region of the United States. Company description from FinViz.com.

Autonation reported earnings of 95 cents that missed estimates by a penny. Revenue of $5.48 billion also missed estimates for $5.6 billion.

The company said demand for cars was falling while truck/SUV demand remained strong but under pressure. Gross profit margins on new vehicles fell from 5.6% to 5.2%. Used vehicle profits fell from 7.3% to 6.3%. The slowing demand for cars meant discounting was rising, which reduced another $100 per car from gains in the quarter. They see that pressure continuing in 2017.

Earnings May 5th.

Despite the positive economy, consumers are defaulting on the most car loans since the great recession. When interest rates were really low, banks and finance companies were giving auto loans to anyone with a pulse in order to write the higher interest loans. Now that the cars are 2-3 years old and people are tired of those cars, they are no longer making the payments. This puts more repossessed cars into the wholesale market and depresses prices.

Since more people are defaulting the credit criteria for a car loan has risen dramatically. Banks realized the error of their ways and they are making it harder to get approved. That reduces the number of people that can qualify for a loan and the number of people that can buy a car.

Auto prices have been on a permanent path higher but suddenly, very few people are willing to pay the outlandish prices for a car they will be underwater on the loan for the next five years.

This is causing strain on retailer profits. Shares of car dealers are in decline. Karmax (KMX) is widely expected to miss estimates when they report earnings on April 6th. By utilizing a put position on Autonation we can benefit from any disappointment by Karmax. Even if the dealers are not an apples and apples comparison, Autonation will be painted by the same broad brush that punishes Karmax.

Update 4/3/17: Competitor Carmax (KMX) was hit by a story in Barron's saying shares could fall 20% as charge offs increase for risky loans. KMX shares fell -4.3% and AN shares fell -3.2%. Carmax reports earnings on Thursday.

Position 3/28/17:

Long May $41 put @ $1.40, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


LB - L Brands Inc - Company Profile

Comments:

The long put recommendation in L Brands was not opened because the stock gapped up $4 at the open. That negated the initial recommendation. Nobody should ever enter a trade that gaps up or down more than $1 at the open.

Before the open LB said same store sales in March fell -10%. However, they had an excuse. They blamed 2% to 3% of that drop on the later than normal Easter that would have normally produced some late March sales. They also said sales were lowered by the exit from the swimwear and apparel business had a negative 7% impact. Apparently investors bought the excuses and a monster short squeeze was born.

Victoria Secret sales declined -13%, compared to analyst estimates for a 10.8% decline. Bath and Body Works sales were flat and analysts expected a 2% decline.

Nearly every analyst said the $4.75 (11%) gain was a short squeeze. Fred's (FRED) reported better than expected earnings on Wednesday after the close and that helped lift the retail sector in general. The retail ETF (XRT) spiked 2%.

I am going to leave the recommendation in the portfolio with a change. There are so many lines of converging resistance that moving over $48-$49 could be a real challenge.

The volume on the August $45 put today was 5,624 and well over the open interest of 3,618. I am going to change the option strike to the August $45 and put an entry trigger on it of $47, just under the afternoon lows.

Original Trade Description: April 5th.

L Brands, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, beauty and personal care products, and accessories. The company operates in three segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. Its products include loungewear, bras, panties, swimwear, athletic attire, fragrances, shower gels and lotions, aromatherapy, soaps and sanitizers, home fragrances, handbags, jewelry, and personal care accessories. The company offers its products under the Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works, La Senza, Henri Bendel, C.O. Bigelow, White Barn, and other brand names. L Brands, Inc. sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Greater China, which are primarily mall-based; through its Websites comprising VictoriasSecret.com, BathandBodyWorks.com, HenriBendel.com, and LaSenza.com; and through franchises, licenses, and wholesale partners. As of January 28, 2017, the company operated 2,755 retail stores in the United States; 270 retail stores in Canada; 18 retail stores in the United Kingdom; and 31 retail stores in the Greater China area. It also operated 203 La Senza stores in 24 countries; 159 Bath & Body Works stores in 30 countries; 23 Victoria's Secret stores in 12 countries; 391 Victoria's Secret Beauty and Accessories stores in 70 countries; and 5 PINK stores in 3 countries. Company description from FinViz.com.

On Tuesday, Citigroup downgraded LB from buy to neutral saying the retailer is operating in too many failing and underperforming malls. The analyst said their entire year would come down to how they perform in the second half of 2017 after an ugly shopping season in 2016.

The company beat on Q4 with earnings of $2.18 compared to estimates for $1.90. Revenue of $4.5 billion matched estimates. Same store sales fell -3% at Victoria Secret. However, they guided for 2017 earnings of $2.05-$3.35 and analysts were expecting $3.61. They reported mid to high teens percentage same store sales declines in February. They also said the exit from swimwear will cost them another 6% in sales in April.

I do not need to say much about this recommendation. Sales and profits are falling, mall traffic is shrinking and the earnings for Q1 are likely to be horrible.

Earnings May 24th.

There are no June options so we either have to go with May, which expires the week before earnings or reach out to August where there will still be some earnings anticipation in the put when we exit before earnings. Using the August strike costs more but the premium erosion over the next several weeks will be a lot less.

With a LB trade at $47

Buy Aug $45 put, currently $3.10, initial stop loss $49.65.


PRGO - Perrigo Plc - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares gapped up this morning to nick us for a few more cents as we exited this position.

Original Trade Description: April 1st.

Perrigo Company plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes over-the-counter (OTC) consumer goods and pharmaceutical products worldwide. The company operates through Consumer Healthcare (CHC), Branded Consumer Healthcare (BCH), Prescription Pharmaceuticals (Rx), Specialty Sciences, and Other segments. The CHC segment offers OTC products in various categories, including analgesics, cough/cold/allergy/sinus, gastrointestinal, infant nutritional, smoking cessation, animal health, feminine hygiene, diabetes and dermatological care, diagnostic, scar management, and other healthcare products, as well as vitamins, minerals, and dietary supplements (VMS); and contract manufacturing services. It serves retail drug, supermarket, mass merchandise chains, and wholesalers through sales force and industry brokers. The BCH segment provides branded OTC products in the natural health and VMS; cough, cold, flu, and allergy; personal care and derma-therapeutics; lifestyle; pain relief, nasal decongestants, and cold sore management; and anti-parasite areas, as well as offers generic pharmaceutical products. It serves pharmacies, drug, and grocery stores through pharmacy sales force, as well as a network of pharmacists. The Rx segment offers generic and specialty pharmaceutical prescription drugs in various dosage forms, such as creams, ointments, lotions, gels, shampoos, foams, suppositories, sprays, liquids, suspensions, solutions, powders, controlled substances, injectables, hormones, women's health products, oral solid dosage forms, and oral liquid formulations; and ORx products. It serves wholesalers; retail drug, supermarket, and mass merchandise chains; hospitals; and pharmacies. The Specialty Sciences segment offers Tysabri to treat multiple sclerosis. The Other segment offers active pharmaceutical ingredients used by generic and branded pharmaceutical companies. Company description from FinViz.com.

Perrigo was already in trouble with investors for not filing its 10K and the Nasdaq had issued a default notice and posted them for delisting. The company said it was "investigating" revenue recognition practices for royalties derived from the drug Tysabri. Strike one for the stock.

In the middle of this revenue recognition problem they announced they had sold their royalty stream to RPI Finance Trust for $2.2 billion and some incentive bonuses to be paid later on December 31st 2018 and December 31st 2020. Investors did not like that either. Strike two for the stock.

There are valid reasons for selling a royalty stream. Companies spending a lot of money on research and marketing can sell royalties to fund that research. However, nobody buys anything unless they feel like they are going to make money on the deal and that means the seller is offering a large discount. When you are talking as much as $2.8 billion over the next three years, that discount had to be large in order to get a finance company to cough up the cash. Investors thought Perrigo was giving up too much to raise cash quickly. They also did not explain what they were going to do with the cash. That always makes investors nervous.

At the same time they announced the sale of the royalties, they said the CFO had resigned, effective immediately. That is never good.

The combination of no financials and the rush job to sell the royalties while they are in the middle of an investigation on those same royalties, smells bad. Shares closed at a 6-year low on Friday after they announced they closed the sale on Thursday.

They did not report earnings as scheduled on February 27th and there is no current schedule. That is strike three for the stock.

You may remember they were offered $195 per share by Mylan in 2015 and turned it down.

Position 4/3/17:

Closed 4/6/17: Long May $65 put @ $2.72, exit $2.05, -.67 cents.


SPY - S&P-500 SPDR ETF - ETF Profile

Comments:

Minor rebound after the market fell from its highs in the afternoon to post only minimal gains. Resistance is still intact.

Original Trade Description: March 25th.

The SPDR S&P 500 trust is an exchange-traded fund which trades on the NYSE Arca under the symbol. SPDR is an acronym for the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts, the former name of the ETF. It is designed to track the S&P 500 stock market index.

The S&P-500 is in danger of a material drop, possibly to 2,250 or the equivalent 225 level on the SPY ETF. The chart is unsupported and we are entering into a typically volatile period of the year over the next five weeks. I am recommending we buy insurance with a put on the SPY only IF the SPY trades at a new five-week low of 232.75. That way if the market opens higher on Monday we can watch to see if that direction holds before putting money at risk.

I believe if the market goes lower next week it could be the beginning of a major decline.

Position 3/27/17:

Long May $230 put @ $3.49, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.




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