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Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 5/3/2017

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Another Day of Consolidation

by Keene Little

Click here to email Keene Little
Since last week's strong showing in the stock market it has been consolidating and we had more of the same today. The techs were relatively strong but they were weaker today as they start their consolidation/reversal. We continue to wait for the next big move.

Today's Market Stats

The reaction to AAPL's earnings report in the after-hours session on Tuesday was negative and it drove NDX futures (NQ) lower. That pointed to a negative open for the techs but they recovered quickly this morning, as did AAPL. The other indexes continued their week-long pattern -- the RUT is relatively weak while the blue chips chop sideways/down and hold the middle ground.

Between the sideways/down consolidation for the blue chips, which looks like a bullish continuation pattern, and the corrective (3-wave) pullback for the RUT we have a potentially bullish setup for the market. That doesn't mean it can't drop lower first but at the moment it's looking more bullish than bearish.

This morning's economic reports had little effect on the market. The ADP Employment report was in line with expectations, coming in at 177K vs. expectations for 170K but a drop from 255K in March (which was revised down from 263K). ISM Services came in better than expected at 57.5 vs. expectations for just a small bump up to 55.8 from 55.2 in March.

There was a small gyration around this afternoon's FOMC announcement but with no real changes from the Fed there wasn't much for the market to react to. There was practically no expectation from the market for a rate increase and true to expectations the Fed kept rates the same.

The Fed reiterated its goal to raise rates twice more this year but did acknowledge a slowdown in the first quarter. The FOMC statement made reference to the slowdown but thinks it is "likely to be transitory." The general feeling by analysts is that the Fed's statements were essentially neutral since there was an absence of information about what plans the Fed might have about reducing their balance sheet.

Until the Fed has more data to help identify whether or not the slowdown in Q1 is in fact "transitory" (they love that word) they are wisely keeping their cards close to the vest. Holding rates steady and not discussing balance sheet reductions is a smart move so as not to disturb the market. Wow, I actually said the Fed made a smart move. Will wonders never cease?

With the FOMC announcement out of the way the market can now focus on earnings and so far they've been good. But one of the problems continues to be how accurate these earnings are. So many expenses are moved "off the books" and there are so many accounting gimmicks (GE is famous for them) that it's really anyone's guess how healthy companies really are (or aren't).

There are also some big problems with company's balance sheets and that is far more important that one quarter's earnings. Some of the biggest companies are in serious trouble. Johnson & Johnson is an example -- it reported operating cash flow of $18.7B in 2016 in its annual report. That sounds great but the problem is how much it's spending. With the cost of dividends, stock buybacks, debt repayment (companies have borrow big time in the past several years, much of it to pay for stock buybacks and dividends), capital expenses and more, JNJ spent $22.8B in 2016, $4.1B more than it earned.

AT&T is another example -- they earned $39.3B in operating cash flow in 2016 but they spent $44B on dividends, stock buybacks and capital expenses. Disney earned $13.2B but spent $16.7B. GE didn't have any positive operating cash flow. These big companies are not alone and they're some of the more heavily weighted companies in the S&P 500 index. It's an unsustainable trend and all the borrowing of these companies is starting to weigh them down.

Another consequence is that investors are now much more heavily invested in ETFs than individual stocks or sector mutual funds. So pricing of individual stocks is now becoming blurred. Fundamentally strong stocks are lumped together with weak stocks and they're all being bought and sold together. This is a phenomenon that is unprecedented and the big question is what happens when the market gets hit with large sell orders. All stocks will get sold, not the weak or selective ones. The baby will get thrown out with the bath water.

These are fundamental issues with the current market and while it doesn't prevent a continuation of the rally (hell, we could be in the middle of a massive melt-up that will take the market much higher than most believe possible) any cracks in the foundation should be watched closely since like a crack in a large dam, once the water starts to break through it could develop into a massive flood in a heartbeat.

As for the immediate future (the next week), I do see the potential for the market to head higher following the pullback correction from last week. I'll start the review with the SPX weekly chart.


S&P 500, SPX, Weekly chart

The pattern for the rally from February 2016 has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is common for the last leg of a larger rally, which in this case is the one from March 2009. The wave pattern is not clear, which means there are several possibilities. My best guess is as labeled on the weekly chart below, which calls for the rally to continue and potentially into June before we'll see a final high near 2500.

The correction following the March 1st high might not be over yet and we could see a sharp leg down to the uptrend line from February-November 2016, currently near 2300. That would be enough to scare a lot of bulls out of the market and get it ready for the next rally. But if it continues to chop its way higher from here I would be more cautious about upside potential.


S&P 500, SPX, Daily chart

On the weekly chart I show the key level to the downside at 2275, which is based on a pullback pattern that could see SPX drop down that low but still be in a larger bullish pattern. Below 2275 would be a much more bearish development. On the daily chart below I show the key level to the downside at 2360 since that would be a break of multiple support levels, including the 20- and 50-dma's, which care coming together near 2366, and its uptrend line from November 4 - April 13, currently near 2363.

Much below 2360 would more strongly suggest we'll get a drop down to at least 2300, if not 2275, but as mentioned above, that would not necessarily be longer-term bearish. It might be but it would depend on what kind of price pattern followed that kind of decline. Consider the possibility for a scary sharp pullback but at the moment the consolidation off last week's high looks like it will be followed by another push higher, even if it will be just a test of the March 1st high at 2401. Putting my bearish cap on, the double top with bearish divergence, if MACD crosses down, would be a time to get short.

Key Levels for SPX:
- bullish above 2401
- bearish below 2360


S&P 500, SPX, 60-min chart

The consolidation following the April 26th high looks like a bull flag continuation pattern, the top of which is currently near 2392. A break above that level should lead to at least a test of the March 1st high at 2401 and possibly up to a price projection near 2407, where the 2nd leg of the rally off the March 27th low would be 162% of the 1st leg up. A drop below the bottom of the pattern, near 2377, and then below Tuesday's gap at 2374 would be a failure of a bullish pattern and would likely lead to a sharp decline.

Whether or not a new high from here would be THE high for at least a while or if it will instead by followed by another consolidation is up for debate. The price pattern following a new high would provide the clues -- another consolidation would be followed by another push higher but a sharp impulsive decline would tell us we had a trend change. Shorter-term trading is the recommendation for now and waiting for a break in one direction or the other from the current consolidation pattern is the safer way to play the market right now.


Dow Industrials, INDU, Daily chart

Like SPX, the Dow has been chopping its way slowly lower following its April 26th high. It too looks like a little bull flag pattern and if it marks the half-way point of the rally from April 19th we could be looking for a rally to 21565, or at least up to the trend line along the highs from May 2011 - December 2014, near 21450. But a drop below the bottom of its little bear flag, currently near 20855, would be the first sign of trouble for the bulls (for at least a larger pullback) and then below 20640 would confirm the likelihood for a much larger decline (20K target).

Key Levels for DOW:
- bullish above 21,170
- bearish below 20,640


Nasdaq Composite index, COMPQ, Daily chart

With Tuesday's high near 6103 the Nasdaq came close to its trend line along the highs form April 2016 - March 1, 2017, which is now near 6131. Its pullback from Tuesday morning looks like a correction and if it continues to bounce on Thursday we could see a test of that trend line. But the pullback has the potential to develop into a more bearish pattern and any further pullback on Thursday could start to accelerate lower.

The pattern for its rally from February, like the others, could be a rising wedge, in which case we might see a choppy move higher to frustrate the bears (since it will constantly look like it's ready to break down but doesn't). Not until it breaks below its April 3rd high near 5929 would I start to think more bearishly about this index.

Key Levels for COMPQ:
- bullish above 6170
- bearish below 5928


Russell-2000, RUT, Daily chart

The RUT has been the weak sister in the past week and that's never helpful for the bulls. But so far it has only a 3-wave pullback that has nearly achieved two equal legs down for the pullback (near 1382 and today's low was 1386). Until it can get below its 20- and 50-dma's, currently near 1382 and 1379, resp., it's hard to turn bearish yet. A drop below its uptrend line from November 4 - April 13, near 1369, would have it looking more bearish. But if the rest of the market heads for at least a minor new high I see the potential for the RUT to at least test, again, its trend line along the highs from 2007-2015, currently near 1428.

Key Levels for RUT:
- bullish above 1428
- bearish below 1364


KBW Bank index, BKX, Daily chart

Following the money (the banks) is not helping at the moment in trying to figure out the next move for the market. BKX is currently stuck between its 50-dma above, currently near 93.10, and 20-dma below, currently near 90.80. The price pattern since last week does not help at the moment and I see an equal chance of rallying from here or dropping down near 90.30 for a larger pullback before heading back up. Above 93.60 would be bullish while a drop below 90 would be bearish (for a drop down to at least the 87 area).


U.S. Dollar contract, DX, Weekly chart

Today the US$ got a nice bounce but it's all within a trading range since last week when it broke its uptrend line from May 2016, near 99.15. It then tested its 50-week MA at 98.45, which is holding as support, but the choppy consolidation since last week looks like a bearish continuation pattern. We could see a back-test of the broken uptrend line, currently near 99.46, before heading lower.

We're getting some signals from the commodities markets that's worrisome if you're a bull and looking for higher stock prices. Commodity weakness in 2015 led to the largest pullback the stock market had seen since 2011 and the picture is starting to look similar. The agriculture sector is breaking down, as can be seen with company's stock prices, such as Agrium, Monsanto and ADM.

Industrial mining companies are also breaking down (uptrend lines from January/February 2016 are breaking, as can be seen on the commodities chart shown further below). Oil is also threatening to break down as is the oil services sector.

A breakdown in the commodities sector is cause for concern for two reasons: one, lower commodity prices affects the outlook for inflation; two, lower commodity prices shows lack of demand which means the global economy is slowing down. Neither of these two things is good for stock prices.

The Fed might even be forced to back off on their rate-increase campaign, including their desire to reduce their balance sheet. Even the Canadian dollar is starting to break support since its strength, and Canada's economy, is dependent on strength in the commodities. Between the commodity slowdown and an enormous housing bubble, Canada banks could soon be in serious trouble.

The Chinese stock market ($SSEC) is also in trouble, having recently broken its uptrend line from May 2016, which once again shows a slowdown in their economy and that affects demand for commodities.


Bloomberg Commodity index, DJUBS, Weekly chart

For the commodity index, DJUBS, its uptrend line from January 2016 was broken in the first week of March. The trend line was then back-tested in mid-April before dropping back down, which left a bearish kiss goodbye and sell signal. It's possible this index is in a bullish sideways consolidation and a break above 89 would be a bullish move. But at the moment it's on a sell signal and pointing lower. This bears watching over the next few weeks since it will likely help us determine which direction the next move will be for the stock market.


Gold continuous contract, GC, Daily chart

Gold lost $18 today and broke multiple support levels in the process. Yesterday it back-tested its broken 20-dma near 1271 and then dropped down to its 200-dma at 1256.70. Today it broke below its 200-dma and only paused at its 50-dma, near 1250, before continuing lower, breaking its uptrend line from December 2016 in the process, near 1243. It also closed below its March 30th low near 1241. It did close slightly above its 200-week MA, at 1235.60, so we could see at least a bounce correction but it's looking bearish from here.


Silver continuous contract, SI, Daily chart

Silver has been pointing the way for the metals, having first broken its moving averages and its uptrend line from December. It's still possible the sharp decline from April 17th will complete a 3-wave correction off the March 1st high, to then be followed by the start of a new rally. If we see a sharp rally follow the current decline I'll consider the bullish possibility more seriously but right now I'm expecting a bounce soon and then a continuation lower.


Oil continuous contract, CL, Weekly chart

Oil has dropped down to an uptrend line from April 2016, which is arguably the bottom of a rising wedge for price action since the June 2016 high. It's possible we'll see another leg up inside the rising wedge but if it breaks below the bottom of it, now near 47.60, we'd likely see oil drop much lower.


Economic reports

Thursday and Friday have a lot more economic reports but the biggest one is the NFP report on Friday. However, even that will likely receive a ho-hum response if there are no big changes or surprises, neither of which are expected.


Conclusion

Last week, on Monday and Tuesday, we had the big gaps to the upside and the market has done virtually nothing since then. The techs kept heading higher but they're now running into resistance and have started to pull back/consolidate. The week-long consolidation looks bullish and normally I'd be a buyer of this pullback. But I also know this market is overbought and losing momentum and we've seen too many of these consolidations at market highs suddenly break down instead. That makes me cautious and I'd rather wait for a break one way or the other (more than just a quick head-fake break) before entering a new trade.

The larger consolidation pattern off the March 1st highs (excluding the techs, which simply marched higher) also looks bullish but I could easily argue the need for a sharp leg down before the pullback is complete. So again, this is a tough spot to enter a new trade. If SPX drops down to 2275-2300 before it will be ready for another rally then it's clearly too early to buy the dip. I feel the upside potential does not warrant the downside risk at the moment.

If the market does push higher I think it won't be much (famous last words of a bear using no stops) before reversing back down. Be careful chasing the market higher from here (raise your stops if trailing the rally higher). Conversely, even if we get a sharp decline I would not get complacent about the short side since it could be just the conclusion to a larger pullback from March 1st and not the start of something more bearish.

Bottom line is keep your timeframe short and your trading light. It's a good time to conserve your trading capital while we wait for a better trade setup.

Good luck and I'll be back with you next Wednesday.

Keene H. Little, CMT


New Option Plays

Coffee Profits Growing

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

Everybody knows coffee does not cost $2 a cup to make but consumers pay more than that to drink it every day. This is a very high profit beverage just like iced tea and sodas.



NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

MCD - McDonalds - Company Profile

McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, Latin America, and internationally. The company's restaurants offer various food products, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 36,899 restaurants, including 31,230 franchised restaurants comprising 21,559 franchised to conventional franchisees, 6,300 licensed to developmental licensees, and 3,371 licensed to foreign affiliates; and 5,669 company-operated restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois. Company description from FinViz.com.

McDonalds is surging because they have overhauled their menu, offered breakfast all day, shifted to fresh beef, mobile ordering, delivery with UberEats, kiosks AND they are selling coffee for $1 and specialty drinks for $2. That is vastly lower than Starbucks and it is helping them steal market share. People stopping by to pick up a cheap coffee tend to order a snack as well. Who can resist adding an Egg McMuffin to go with that coffee.

McDonalds reported better than expected earnings and raised guidance. They reported $1.47 compared to estimates for $1.33. Revenue of $5.68 billion beat estimates for $5.53 billion. Same store sales rose 1.7% compared to expectations for an 0.8% decline. Global sales were up 4%.

Earnings July 25th.

Goldman has had a neutral rating on them forever but upgraded the fast food giant today to a buy with $153 price target. Goldman admitted they were late but said there was still plenty of time given the improved metrics. Goldman cited McDonald's "Experience of the Future" plans for mobile ordering and kiosks and said the expanding delivery options could expand revenue.

McDonalds closed at a new high today in a weak market.

Buy July $145 call, currently $1.71, initial stop loss $138.85.


NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

No New Bearish Plays



In Play Updates and Reviews

No Excitement

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

Facebook and Tesla both posted earnings after the close and both moved sharply lower. For traders hoping those two companies would report exciting news and energize the market, their hopes were dashed. This could lead to additional weakness on Thursday.

The Dow posted a minor gain of 8 points but remains well under resistance at 21,000. The S&P gave back the three points it gained on Tuesday and closed right on 2,388 once again. That resistance level has proven very sticky.

The Russell 2000 lost another 8 points to close just above the critical 1,388 level after touching it twice intraday. A decline below that level targets 1,340 once again.



Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


ADP - Automatic Data Processing
The long call position for May is being dropped.

WFM - Whole Foods Market
Close the long call position at the open on Thursday.

Z - Zillow Group
Close the long call position at the open on Thursday.



If you are looking for a different type of option strategy, try these newsletters:

Credit spreads and naked puts = OptionWriter

Long term option investments = LEAPS Investor

3-6 month Option Trades = Ultimate Investor

Iron Condors = Couch Potato Trader

Long and short equity trades = Premier Investor



BULLISH Play Updates

ADBE - Adobe Systems - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news.

Original Trade Description: March 23rd.

Adobe Systems Incorporated operates as a diversified software company worldwide. Its Digital Media segment provides tools and solutions that enable individuals, small and medium businesses, and enterprises to create, publish, promote, and monetize their digital content. This segment's flagship product is Creative Cloud, a subscription service that allows customers to download and install the latest versions of its creative products. This segment serves traditional content creators, Web application developers, and digital media professionals, as well as their management in marketing departments and agencies, companies, and publishers. The company's Digital Marketing segment offers solutions for how digital advertising and marketing are created, managed, executed, measured, and optimized. This segment provides analytics, social marketing, targeting, advertising and media optimization, digital experience management, cross-channel campaign management, and audience management solutions, as well as video delivery and monetization to digital marketers, advertisers, publishers, merchandisers, Web analysts, chief marketing officers, chief information officers, and chief revenue officers. Its Print and Publishing segment offers products and services, such as eLearning solutions, technical document publishing, Web application development, and high-end printing, as well as publishing needs of technical and business, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) printing businesses. The company markets and licenses its products and services directly to enterprise customers through its sales force, as well as to end-users through app stores and through its Website at adobe.com. It also distributes products and services through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, independent software vendors, retailers, and OEMs. Company description from FinViz.com.

Everybody knows Adobe or at least they did 20 years ago. Photoshop and Illustrator were the key pieces of software everyone needed to create content for magazines and print media. What would Sports Illustrated have done without Photoshop for their Swimsuit Edition?

Fast forward to 2017 and Adobe has so many different pieces and partners that you cannot even describe them all. With annual revenue at $7 billion and growing they are rapidly outpacing everyone's earnings expectations.

Adobe is hosting its annual Digital Marketing Summit. At that event they announced several new partnerships and the integration of multiple "cloud" entities into one platform.

This description is from a Real Money article.

Headlining these moves is the creation of a common platform, known as the Experience Cloud for all of the products that to date had been grouped within Adobe's "Marketing Cloud." Going forward, Marketing Cloud will comprise one of three parts of Experience Cloud, and feature products such as Experience Manager (used to create and manage marketing content across platforms), Target (lets marketers personalize user experiences) and Social (used to run social media marketing campaigns).

Another part of Experience Cloud, known as Advertising Cloud, lets companies run and optimize search, display and video ad campaigns. It pairs Adobe's Media Optimizer search and display ad-buying tools with recently-acquired TubeMogul's video ad-buying platform. The third part, known as Analytics Cloud, combines the popular Adobe Analytics tool for uncovering insights from customer data with Audience Manager, a platform for creating customer/audience profiles.

Advertising Cloud has gotten a lot of attention, since it more firmly makes Adobe a player in an ad tech space where Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) loom large, and where independent players such as The Trade Desk (TTD) and The Rubicon Project (RUBI) are also present. Adobe is pitching itself as an independent alternative to Google and Facebook, which of course are also giant sellers of ad inventory, while arguing that integrations between the three parts of Experience Cloud set it apart from both independent ad tech players and marketing software rivals such as Salesforce.com (CRM) and Oracle (ORCL).

In their earnings last week, they reported a 21.6% rise in revenue to $1.68 billion and the 12th consecutive increase in revenue from the Creative Cloud graphics software. Earnings were 94 cents and analysts had been expecting 87 cents and $1.645 billion in revenue. Adobe said annualized recurring revenue rose by $265 million to $4.25 billion. That is based on continuing subscription growth.

Update 5/2/17: Barclay's initiated coverage with a buy rating and $155 price target on growing traction in the cloud. They expect revenue from the Creative Cloud to rise 20% per year.

Earnings June 15th.

Shares spiked after earnings from $122 to $130 and then faded back to $125 over the next week. They have started to rebound again because finding 20% revenue growth in the market is hard to do.

Position 3/24/17 with an ADBE trade at $127.50
Long May $130 call @ $2.61, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


ADP - Automatic Data Processing - Company Profile

Comments:

ADP reported earnings of $1.29 compared to estimates for $1.23. However, revenues of $3.41 billion rose 5% but missed estimates for $3.43 billion. The killer statistic was that new business bookings decline -7%. Shares crashed $6.50 on the news to eliminate any chance of our May call being worth anything before expiration. I am recommending we drop the position. Since there is no value, I would not close it. You never know when an acquisition offer could appear.

Original Trade Description: March 17th.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business process outsourcing services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services. The Employer Services segment offers a range of business outsourcing and technology-enabled human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration services, talent management, human resources management solutions, time and attendance management solutions, insurance services, retirement services, and tax and compliance solutions. This segment's integrated HCM solutions include RUN Powered by ADP, ADP Workforce Now, ADP Vantage HCM, and ADP GlobalView, which assist employers of all sizes in all stages of the employment cycle from recruitment to retirement; and ADP SmartCompliance and ADP Health Compliance. The PEO Services segment provides a human resources (HR) outsourcing solution through a co-employment model to small and mid-sized businesses. This segment offers ADP TotalSource that provides various HR management services and employee benefits functions, such as HR administration, employee benefits, and employer liability management into a single-source solution. Company description from FinViz.com.

ADP reported earnings of 87 cents that rose 57% and beat estimates for 81 cents. Revenue of $2.99 billion rose 6.4% but missed estimates for $3.01 billion. They surprised analysts with revenue growth guidance for 2017 at 6%, down from prior forecasts of 7% to 8%. They blamed the revenue miss and lowered guidance on uncertainty over the elections and the impact of the Trump election. They also see a 1% revenue hit from the sale of their CHSA and COBRA businesses in 2016. They guided for earnings growth of 15% to 17% for the full year. They currently serve 637,000 clients in 125 nations. The number of employees serviced rose 2.3%. PEO Services employees rose 12% to 452,000. These are "co-owned" employees managed by ADP for clients.

They repurchased 4.6 million shares at a cost of $422 million. They expect to repurchase $1.2-$1.4 billion in shares in 2017.

Earnings May 3rd.

ADP holds a dominant position in the payroll processing sector. With employment expected to rise again in 2017 this could be an attractive investment for funds that are tired of chasing industrials and bank stocks in the current rally.

ADP rallied nearly $1 on Friday in a weak market and closed at $105.12 and a new high. It was also just over the $105 strike. I am recommending we reach out to the $110 strike since it appears ADP is about to move higher after three weeks of consolidation. This option price is very cheap and there will be no initial stop loss.

Position 3/20/17:

Dropped 5/3/17: Long May $110 call @ 75 cents, expiring, -.75 loss.


CNC - Centene Corp - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Gave back more than half of Tuesday's gain.

Original Trade Description: April 28th.

Centene Corporation operates as a diversified and multi-national healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured individuals in the United States. It operates through two segments, Managed Care and Specialty Services. The Managed Care segment offers Medicaid and Medicaid-related health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs, including Medicaid, the State children's health insurance program, long-term care, foster care, and dual-eligible individual, as well as aged, blind, or disabled programs. Its health plans include primary and specialty physician care, inpatient and outpatient hospital care, emergency and urgent care, prenatal care, laboratory and X-ray services, home health and durable medical equipment, behavioral health and substance abuse, 24-hour nurse advice line, transportation assistance, vision care, dental care, immunizations, prescriptions and limited over-the-counter drugs, specialty pharmacy, therapies, social work services, and care coordination. The Specialty Services segment provides pharmacy benefits management services; health, triage, wellness, and disease management services; vision services; dental services; correctional healthcare services; in-home health services; and integrated long-term care services, as well as care management software that automate the clinical, administrative, and technical components of care management programs. This segment offers its services and products to state programs, healthcare organizations, employer groups, and other commercial organizations. The company provides its services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers. Company description from FinViz.com.

Centene reported earnings of $1.12 compared to estimates for $1.05. Revenue jumped 69% to $11.72 billion to beat estimates for $11.42 billion. The big spike in revenue came from the $6.3 billion acquisition of Health Net last year.

The insurer said it had 12.15 million members on March 31st, an increase of 605,000. They raised guidance for the full year from $4.40-$4.85 to $4.50-$4.90. The health benefits ratio or HBR, the amount it spends on claims compared to the premiums received declined from 88.7% to 87.6%. The lower HBR is due to a greater mix of commercial businesses and the growth of its Obamacare businesses.

Earnings July 25th.

Shares had resistance at $73, which was broken last week. The next resistance is the 52-week high at $75.50 and the stock closed at $74.41 on Friday. There was a sell the news drop on Wednesday after the earnings but shares have already recovered $3 of that decline.

If the stock moves to a new 52-week high is should continue on to make a new high over $80.

Position 5/1/17:

Long June $77.50 call @ $1.57, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


CVX - Chevron - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news but shares spiked +$1.36 even though oil prices were lower.

Original Trade Description: April 16th.

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy, chemicals, and petroleum operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil and refined products; transporting crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing commodity petrochemicals, and fuel and lubricant additives, as well as plastics for industrial uses. It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses. Further, the company holds interests in power plants, as well as operates geothermal plants; and engages in the transportation of refined products primarily in the coastal waters of the United States. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Company description from FinViz.com.

Chevron is one of the U.S. energy majors with billions of barrels of reserves. The company pays an annual dividend of $4.32 or 4.07% yield. They are totally committed to preserving and raising the dividend. This makes them a top pick by nearly every major analyst.

Chevron is coming out of a major project cycle where they spent over $25 billion a year on capex building out monster projects. Now that the projects are nearly complete and ramping up production, the company can reduce its capex significantly and still increase production as those projects come online.

Chevron has amassed a two million acre position in the Permian Basin with 9 billion barrels of reserves. The company is currently operating 11 rigs in the Permian and will be adding 9 more in the coming months. They plan on ramping up their Permian production from the current 80,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd over the next few years. Chevron's Permian acreage is said to be worth more than $43 billion. It was acquired in pieces at much lower prices by predecessor companies over the last several decades. The Permian was never a big focus for Chevron as they concentrated on megaprojects elsewhere. They are increasing spending in the Permian by $2.5 billion in 2017. They are not hedging their oil production because they believe prices will rise.

Earnings on April 28th are expected to be a miss because of the sharp decline in oil prices in March. This is expected to lower earnings and force misses for the major producers. Since this is a well-known fact, I suspect it it being priced into the stock ahead of the report.

Thursday's decline of 3% put the stock right at light support at $106. If this level fails, there is strong support at $100.

Oil prices should begin to rally any day now. Refinery utilization of back over 90% and it is time to begin pushing summer blend fuels into the distribution system. We should begin to see inventory declines every week and that should last through July. August is normally when crude prices top out. OPEC should extend the production cuts because they are right on the edge of a reduction in inventories and an extension would guarantee it.

Chevron shares should rebound with crude prices. If they were to surprise with earnings, shares should rebound quickly.

The option is cheap and we are going to hold over the earnings report.

If the market tanks at the open on Monday, please do not enter this position until the S&P is positive.

Update 4/19/17: Chevron shares crashed with the entire energy sector after a nearly $2 drop in crude prices on weak inventory numbers from the EIA. WTI only declined -1 million barrels and gasoline rose 1.5 million compared to an expected decline of -1.6 million. The EIA said gasoline demand was down -0.8% from the same period in 2016.

Update 4/22/17: Chevron lost a court case in Australia for $260 million. The case ruled on the deductibility of interest on a $2.5 billion loan made from the parent company between 2003-2008. Chevron Australia paid 9% interest on the loan from Chevron and the parent company borrowed the money at a lower rate. The court said Chevron Australia could only deduct the interest at the parent's borrowing rate. Chevron said they would appeal.

Update 4/24/17: Chevron said it was selling its assets in Bangladesh to Himalaya Energy. No price was given but Bloomberg said the fields were worth about $2 billion. Chevron is planning on selling $10 billion in non-core assets in 2017. Himalaya is owned by a consortium of Chinese state owned firms. Bangladesh has a right of refusal on any deal and they said they were not done with their evaluations yet. The three fields held in the Chevron subsidiary produce 720 million cubic feet of gas and 3,000 barrels of condensate per day.

Update 4/28/17: Chevron reported earnings of $1.41 compared to estimates for 86 cents. The Chevron number did have a $600 million gain from the sale of an upstream asset so it is not really apples to apples comparison. Revenue of $33.4 billion missed estimates for $34.9 billion. Operating costs declined 14% and capex spending will be down more than 30%. Oil production rose 3% and full year growth is expected to be 4-9%.

Position 4/17/17:

Long June $110 call, currently $1.45. See portfolio graphic for stop loss.


FIVE - Five Below - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor decline from the 7-month high.

Original Trade Description: April 10th.

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. It offers accessories, including novelty socks, sunglasses, jewelry, scarves, gloves, hair accessories, athletic tops and bottoms, and T-shirts, as well as beauty products comprising nail polish, lip gloss, fragrance, and branded cosmetics; and items used to complete and personalize living space, including glitter lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, pillows, candles, incense, and related items, as well as provides storage options for the customer's room and locker. The company also provides sport balls; team sports merchandise and fitness accessories, such as hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls; games, including name brand board games, puzzles, toys, and plush items; and pool, beach and outdoor toys, games, and accessories. In addition, it offers accessories, such as cases, chargers, headphones, and other related items for PCs, cell phones, and tablet computers; books, video games, and DVDs; craft activity kits; arts and crafts supplies that consist of crayons, markers, and stickers; and trend-right items for school comprising backpacks, fashion notebooks and journals, novelty pens and pencils, and everyday name brand items. Further, the company provides party goods, gag gifts, decorations, and greeting cards, as well as every day and special occasion merchandise products; assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, and gum and snack food; chilled drinks through coolers; and seasonally-specific items used to celebrate and decorate for events, such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and St. Patrick's Day. It primarily serves teen and pre-teen customers. As of January 28, 2017, it operated approximately 522 stores in 31 states. Company description from FinViz.com.

Five Below is an expensive Dollar Store. Everything in Five Below is $5 or less. That gives they a wider range of products and still keeps them somewhat Amazon proof because buying it online requires shipping.

Five Below is a bargain hunter impulse store. Customers rarely walk in with a specific product in mind but looking for a bargain instead. This is a kid magnet because they stock a lot of stuff that appeals to adolescents.

They reported earnings of 90 cents that beat estimates for 89 cents. Revenue was $388.1 million and that narrowly beat estimates for $387 million.

They guided for Q1 for earnings of 12-14 cents and analysts were expecting 13 cents. For the full year, they guided for $1.55-$1.61 per share and analysts expected $1.58. Revenue guidance was $1.21 to $1.23 billion.

They currently operate about 550 stores and plan to open 100 in 2017. They expect to increase that to 2,000 stores over time. They were primarily in Texas Florida and the North East but they have begun to expand into California and the feedback has been outstanding. Nothing costs under $5 in California so their stores are hot locations.

Earnings June 21st.

Shares closed at a 7-month high on Monday and just over resistance at $44.50. If the current rally holds the next resistance test would be $52.

Update 4/12/17: Five will open the first nine stores in California next week with stores at Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Compton, Hawthorne, Montebello, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, South Gate and Redlands.

Position 4/11/17:

Long May $45 call @ $1.90, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


LB - L Brands - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. New 2-month high.

Original Trade Description: April 17th.

L Brands, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, beauty and personal care products, and accessories. The company operates in three segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. Its products include loungewear, bras, panties, swimwear, athletic attire, fragrances, shower gels and lotions, aromatherapy, soaps and sanitizers, home fragrances, handbags, jewelry, and personal care accessories. The company offers its products under the Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works, La Senza, Henri Bendel, C.O. Bigelow, White Barn, and other brand names. L Brands, Inc. sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Greater China, which are primarily mall-based; through its Websites comprising VictoriasSecret.com, BathandBodyWorks.com, HenriBendel.com, and LaSenza.com; and through franchises, licenses, and wholesale partners. As of January 28, 2017, the company operated 2,755 retail stores in the United States; 270 retail stores in Canada; 18 retail stores in the United Kingdom; and 31 retail stores in the Greater China area. It also operated 203 La Senza stores in 24 countries; 159 Bath & Body Works stores in 30 countries; 23 Victoria's Secret stores in 12 countries; 391 Victoria's Secret Beauty and Accessories stores in 70 countries; and 5 PINK stores in 3 countries. Company description from FinViz.com.

Two weeks ago, Citigroup downgraded LB from buy to neutral saying the retailer is operating in too many failing and underperforming malls. The analyst said their entire year would come down to how they perform in the second half of 2017 after an ugly shopping season in 2016.

The company beat on Q4 with earnings of $2.18 compared to estimates for $1.90. Revenue of $4.5 billion matched estimates. Same store sales fell -3% at Victoria Secret. However, they guided for 2017 earnings of $2.05-$3.35 and analysts were expecting $3.61. They reported mid to high teens percentage same store sales declines in February. They also said the exit from swimwear will cost them another 6% in sales in April.

On April 6th, LB said same store sales in March fell -10%. However, they had an excuse. They blamed 2% to 3% of that drop on the later than normal Easter that would have normally produced some late March sales. They also said sales were lowered by the exit from the swimwear and apparel business had a negative 7% impact. Victoria Secret sales declined -13%, compared to analyst estimates for a 10.8% decline. Bath and Body Works sales were flat and analysts expected a 2% decline. Investors bought the excuses and the stock did not decline.

Earnings May 24th.

Oppenheimer came out swinging on the LB buying opportunity with a $62 price target. The analyst said patient investors will be well rewarded because the low March numbers were predicted in advance and the recent sell off was overdone. Changes in inventory levels and content after a slow January, made an immediate difference in traffic and revenue.

In April, the stores are transitioning into a Mother's Day theme featuring new and seasonal products in body care, home fragrance, soaps and sanitizers.

Shares rebounded to $47.50 on the better than expected same store sales when accounting for discontinued swimwear. They have held at that level for seven days and are showing no signs of a decline. The next move appears to be higher. If we make an entry now before that move begins, we can get a lower option premium.

There are no June options.

Position 4/18/17:

Long August $50 call @ $2.70, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


MSM - MSC Industrial Direct - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares starting to improve after several days of sector weakness.

Original Trade Description: April 22nd.

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, markets and distributes various ranges of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products primarily in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company's MRO products comprise cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, metalworking products, fasteners, flat stock, raw materials, abrasives, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies. It offers approximately 1,000,000 stock-keeping units through its master catalogs; weekly, monthly, and quarterly specialty and promotional catalogs; brochures; and the Internet, such as its Websites comprising mscdirect.com and use-enco.com. The company serves primarily through its distribution network of 85 branch offices and 12 customer fulfillment centers. In addition, it distributes fasteners and other consumables for customers in manufacturing, government, the Department of Defense, transportation, and natural resources end-markets. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York. Company description from FinViz.com.

MSC reported earnings of 93 cents compared to estimates for 90 cents. Revenue of $703.8 million beat estimates for $696.8 million. They guided for the current quarter to revenue of $734-$748 million and analysts were expecting $735 million. They declared a quarterly dividend of 45 cents. Shares fell $18 on the news.

The earnings were great and guidance was good. Why did the stock crater? Shares had vastly outperformed the market with a $35 post election gain. The earnings turned into a sell the news event as investors captured all that built up profit.

Shares bottomed at $86 last week and began to move slightly higher. Having just released earnings they to not report again until July 6th. We have plenty of time.

Just to be sure the rebound has begun I am going to put an entry trigger on the position.

Position 4/24/17:

Long June $95 call @ $1.71, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SAIC - Science Applications Intl - Company Profile

Comments:

The defense sector is still weak. SAIC was awarded a contract from the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center for $27 million for support services for the Marine Corp Cyberspace Operations Group.

Original Trade Description: April 26th.

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and enterprise information technology (IT) services primarily in the United States. The company's offerings include engineering; technology and equipment platform integration; maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support services; and end-to-end services, such as design, development, integration, deployment, management and operations, sustainment, and security of its customers' IT infrastructure. It serves the U.S. military comprising Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard; the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; the U.S. Department of State; and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The company was formerly known as SAIC Gemini, Inc. and changed its name to Science Applications International Corporation in September 2013. Company description from FinViz.com.

Back in late March, SAIC reported earnings of 79 cents that missed estimates for 80 cents. Revenue of $1.03 billion also missed estimates for $1.09 billion. Shares were knocked for a $16 loss. They paid a dividend of 31 cents and bought back 457,000 shares for $38 million.

The company explained in detail several different items that caused them to miss estimates including the constant challenges with government contracting. The government never does anything on schedule including awarding contracts or making payments when contracts are completed.

During the quarter, they received awards of $800 million and net bookings for the full year were $5.3 billion with a book to bill ratio of 1.2 and their strongest ever. Their order backlog at the end of the quarter was $8 billion.

Earnings June 29th.

This is a good solid company that was punished for some minor execution issues and for the calendar challenges of dealing with the government. Shares cruised along in the $72 range for three weeks and begin rising this week. I am sure the market short squeeze did not hurt.

Now that the shares have started to rebound we can take a position.

I am going to reach out to the August option cycle to get past their earnings date. Open interest is thin so I would use a limit order to enter the position. Once we get closer to June the volume will increase.

Position 4/27/17:

Long August $80 call @ $1.90, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SYMC - Symantec - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Still holding near Monday's new closing high.

Original Trade Description: March 16th

Symantec Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Consumer Security and Enterprise Security. The Consumer Security segment offers Norton-branded services that provide multi-layer security and identity protection on desktop and mobile operating systems to defend against online threats to individuals, families, and small businesses. Its Norton Security products help customers protect against complex threats and address the need for identity protection, while also managing mobile and digital data, such as personal financial records, photos, music, and videos. The Enterprise Security segment provides threat protection products, information protection products, cyber security services, and Website security offerings. Its products protect customer data from threats, such as advanced protection threats, malicious spam and phishing attacks, malware, drive-by Website infections, hackers, and cyber criminals; prevent the loss of confidential data by insiders; and help customers achieve and maintain compliance with laws and regulations. This segment delivers its solutions through various methods, such as software, appliance, software-as-a-service, and managed services. The company serves individuals, households, and small businesses; small, medium, and large enterprises; and government and public sector customers. It markets and sells its products and related services through direct sales force, e-commerce platforms, distributors, direct marketers, Internet-based resellers, system builders, Internet service providers, wireless carriers, retailers, original equipment manufacturers, and retail and online stores. Company description from FinViz.com.

You cannot even turn on your phone or PC without being subjected to dozens if not hundreds of potential attackers. Worse than stealing your ID and maybe being able to cause you grief down the road, the biggest attacks today are the ransom ware attacks. If you click on an email link or leave your PC unguarded by a security program, the hacker encrypts all your files and charges you a fee to get them back. All of your documents, pictures, bank account info, Quickbooks, etc, all disappear in a heartbeat. Even if you pay the blackmail, you still may not get them back.

Symantec is the leading cybersecurity vendor for personal computers and small business servers. Enterprise class operations will normally go with higher fee organizations like Fire Eye, Palo Alto Networks, etc. Symantec has the entire personal computer space to themselves. There are some competitors like PC Magic and McAfee but they are distant competitors. Since Intel partnered with McAfee an TPG in September, they are improving but Symantec has a big head start.

Because of the daily headlines on cyberattacks, more and more consumers are reaching out and deploying more sophisticated antivirus programs. It is not just for the closet geeks anymore. Everyone needs a real security program.

Strangely, the biggest risk is still the individual. In a recent study of 19,000 individuals by Intel Security they showed each person 10 different emails and asked them to identify the real ones and the fake ones. Only 3% identified all ten correctly. That means 18,430 would have clicked on a phishing email. Clearly, everyone needs a security program to protect us from ourselves.

Update 3/23/17: Morgan Stanley raised their price target from $33 to $37 saying Symantec's recent wave of acquisitions, including Blue Coat Systems and LifeLock, have improved Symantec's position with their rivals. In June, they bought Blue Coat for $4.65 billion to beef up their enterprise offerings. In February, they paid $2.3 billion for LifeLock to enhance their consumer security business. Morgan Stanley expects Symantec to make more acquisitions after their recent $1 billion debt offering.

Update 4/26/17: Symantec said cyber criminals were upping the fees to get your data back after they infect your computer with ransomware. The average fee in 2016 was $294 and that has risen to $1,077 in 2017. DON'T click those links in emails!!!

Update 4/27/17: Symantec, Google and Mozilla have reached an agreement on the life cycle of Symantec trust certificates. There is a push on in the browser community to shorten the duration of security certificates because of the proliferation of bogus websites. If the certificates expire faster, then the websites have to be revalidated more often and the bogus sites will slowly be weeded out.

Earnings May 10th.

Position 3/17/17:

Long July $32 call @ $1.29, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


$VIX - Volatility Index - Index Description

Comments:

The VIX posted only a minor gain. With Tesla and Facebook down sharply in afterhours we could see some further market weakness on Thursday.

This is a July call. We have plenty of time and the odds of a market sell off over the next 2.5 months are close to 100%. I considered recommending we double up on the position with the VIX at 10-year lows. I decided I would leave that up to each individual investor. The VIX cannot go much lower but it can go a lot higher.

While holding the VIX call is an insurance play for us, I hope we are never in a position to profit from it. That would mean a lot of our long positions would be under water or stopped out.

Original Trade Description: Jan 26th

The VIX is a computed index, much like the S&P 500 itself, although it is not derived based on stock prices. Instead, it uses the price of options on the S&P 500, and then estimates how volatile those options will be between the current date and the option's expiration date. The CBOE combines the price of multiple options and derives an aggregate value of volatility, which the index tracks.

The VIX closed at 10.63 and very close to record lows. You have to go back to June of 2014 for a lower recent close at 10.28. Before that, you have to travel back in time to Feb-2007 for a close at 10.05. The next lowest close was 9.48 in Dec-1993.

The point here is that volatility is near record lows only reached four times in the last 23 years. That qualifies for an abnormal event. I believe it is time we bought some VIX calls. The odds of the VIX remaining this low for the next two months are about as close to zero as you can get.

There is a very old saying in the market. "When the VIX is high, it is time to buy. When the VIX is low, it is time to go." You cannot get much lower than this.

The VIX is telling us that everyone expects the market to continue moving higher. Nobody is worried that some unexpected headline or event is going to trigger a significant market decline. When nobody expects an event is when we should be the most concerned.

Update 5/1/17: The VIX made a new intraday low at 9.90 and closed at a 10-yr low at 10.11. The government shutdown has been avoided according to reports out of Washington and that helped to deflate the VIX. Marine Le Pen is rapidly gaining on Macron in the French election runoff for next Sunday. She gained 6 points in two days to 41% in the recent polls compared to Macron's 59%. If she can gain another 6% early this week then the entire event risk scenario comes back into play with a potential come from behind win.

Position 3/30/117
Long July $14 call @ $2.55, no stop loss.

Previously Closed 2/1/17: Long March $12 call @ $2.60, exit $2.50, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 2/22/17: Long March $12 call @ $1.75 adj, exit $1.65, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 4/10/17: Long Apr $13 call @ $2.30, exit $1.80, -.55 loss.


WFM - Whole Foods Market - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares have stopped rising and after holding at this level on speculation forever, there will eventually be a decline. I am recommending we close the position. This is a May option so our time is running short.

CLOSE THE POSITION

Original Trade Description: April 19th.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. operates natural and organic foods supermarkets. Its stores offers produce, packaged goods, bulk, frozen, dairy, meat, bakery, prepared foods, coffee, tea, beer, wine, cheese, nutritional supplements, vitamins, body care, pet foods, and household goods. As of March 8, 2017, the company operated approximately 460 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Whole Foods Market, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas. Company description from FinViz.com.

This is not a play based on Whole Foods fundamentals or earnings. This is a defensive play covering the next four weeks when the market could be volatile.

Shares of WFM spiked last week when news broke that Amazon had considered acquiring the chain to jumpstart its grocery business. Before that news we found out that Jana Partners had taken a huge stake and had given the firm until September to make some radical changes of they would launch a proxy fight.

A couple weeks before that Kroger (KR) was reportedly mulling over making a run at Whole Foods. Jana already had Kroger, Albertsons and Amazon on their list of possible acquirers they were suggesting to WFM management.

Normally shares spike up on a big set of news headlines like these and then roll over a few days later when nothing happens. WFM shares are continuing to rise. That suggests there may be continuing conversations that have not made it to the headlines.

Earnings are May 10th and I am recommending we buy the May $35 call because it is cheap, there is a reasonable chance of something happening in the acquisition area and if the market or stock tanks, we have very little at risk.

Update 4/20/17: Credit Suisse analyst Edward Kelly put out a note saying Kroger (KR) should write a check for WFM because they were the perfect partner and it would accelerate Kroger's market share. The analyst said accretion could be 40 cents per share before any reinvestment.

Update 4/24/17: An article in the Financial Times said Albertsons, owned by Cerberus Capital Management, had spoken with bankers about making a bid for Whole Foods. It appears everyone is circling the wounded WFM with Kroger, Amazon and Albertsons all mentioned as potential buyers. Shares were up nearly $2 intraday but faded at the close to a gain of 75 cents and a new high. We are nearing a point of excessive optimism given how far the stock has spiked. I am tightening the stop loss. Update 4/25/17: An article by Bloomberg suggested Whole Foods was not going to be acquired because of the $13 billion price tag and the impact to the debt structure of both Kroger and Albertsons if they went the cash route. The article suggested Amazon could easily digest them in a cash deal but did not speculate on that outcome. Bloomberg article

I considered closing the position but our stop loss is pretty tight so I am going to let it run. I know as soon as I close it somebody will offer $40 for the company.

Update 4/27/17: Private investment firm, Neuberger Berman, urged Whole Foods to explore a sale. The company has a 2.4% stake in Whole foods. Jana Partners has a 9% stake and is demanding action now.

Update 5/1/17: WFM has delayed the construction of new "365" stores and said they are being reconsidered for 2018. If you were holding merger discussions this would be a likely outcome. The buyer would want to hold on additional capex until they were in control.

Position 4/20/17:

Long May $35 call @ $1.30, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


Z - Zillow Group - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Zillow reports earnings after the close on Thursday. I am recommending we close the position at the open.

CLOSE THE POSITION

Original Trade Description: April 8th.

Zillow Group, Inc. operates real estate and home-related information marketplaces on mobile and the Web in the United States. The company offers a portfolio of brands and products to enable people find information about homes and connect with local professionals. Its brands focus on various stages of the home lifecycle, including renting, buying, selling, and financing. The company's portfolio of consumer brands comprises real estate and rental marketplaces, such as Zillow, Trulia, StreetEasy, HotPads, and Naked Apartments. It also owns and operates various brands comprising Mortech, dotloop, Bridge Interactive, and Retsly, as well as provides advertising services to real estate agents, and rental and mortgage professionals. Company description from FinViz.com.

Zillow reported earnings of 14 cents. This compares to a loss of 1 cent in the year ago quarter. Revenue of $227.6 million rose 34%. The guided for Q1 for revenue of $232-$237 million. Shares declined after the report because the guidance was slightly less than analysts expected.

In Mid March, shares declined again after a story appeared on Inman.com suggesting that Zillow's marketing programs may have violated RESPA rules. The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act was put in place in 2010 to protect potential homeowners from predatory lenders. Basically, if a lender or real estate agent pays somebody a kickback for a referral, it is illegal after 2010.

Zillow allows mortgage brokers to advertise on the websites. No problem there. Zillow also offers referral services. If you want a mortgage loan you can go to the Zillow site and enter some information like your loan amount and zip code where you are buying the home. Zillow then matches your request with lenders that pay to advertise on the site and you are given a list of referrals. The inman.com article suggested this was a recommendation for pay, which is illegal. However, Zillow contends it is just generic advertising that matches lenders and borrowers by zip code. The key point is that Zillow gets paid for the advertising whether a lender makes a loan or not. They get paid for the click rather than a loan. Several analysts have noted that Google does the same thing if you type in mortgage loan calculator. They show lenders on that page and Google gets paid for that impression even if no loan is ever made.

Shares declined to $33 on that story and have held there for three weeks. On Friday, Zillow closed at a post dip high. With this the active selling season, the expectations for their May earnings should be high and should lift the stock.

Update 4/19/17: Bridge Interactive, a subsidiary of Zillow, announced it had added 10 new multiple listing services to its platform. This added 180,000 agents to its 400,000 existing members.

Update 4/27/17: Zillow surged to a new 9-month high after announcing new partnerships with four new MLS firms. Sandicor represents San Diego County, ABoR represents the Austin Noard of Realtors, NOMAR represents the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors and the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors. All together, those MLS firms have more than 23,000 member realtors.

Update 5/2/17: Zillow launched RealEstate.com to give first time homebuyers a new way to search for homes. You can search by monthly payment and the down payment you can afford. Zillow calculates the "all in" price of homes including closing costs and shows that number as a monthly payment. More than 42% of homebuyers are first time buyers and they normally end up spending more than they can afford because of the broad range of listings in a normal search.

Earnings May 9th.

Position 4/10/17:

Long May $35 call @ $1.45, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



BEARISH Play Updates (Alpha by Symbol)

PG - Procter & Gamble - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor rebound from Tuesday's big decline.

Original Trade Description: May 1st.

The Procter & Gamble Company provides branded consumer packaged goods to consumers in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company's Beauty segment offers hair care products comprising conditioners, shampoos, styling aids, and treatments; and antiperspirants and deodorants, personal cleansing, and skin care products. This segment markets its products under the Head & Shoulders, Olay, Pantene, Rejoice, Old Spice, Safeguard, and SK-II brands. Its Grooming segment provides blades and razors, pre- and post-shave products, and other shave care products, as well as appliances under the Braun, Fusion, Gillette, Mach3, Prestobarba, and Venus brands. The company's Health Care segment offers toothbrushes, toothpaste, and other oral care products; and gastrointestinal, rapid diagnostics, respiratory, vitamins/minerals/supplements, and other healthcare products under the Oral-B, Crest, Prilosec, Vicks, Metamucil, Pepto Bismol, and Align brands. Its Fabric & Home Care segment provides fabric care products, including fabric enhancers, laundry additives, and laundry detergents; and home care products comprising air care, dish care, P&G professional, and surface care products under the Tide, Ariel, Downy, Gain, Cascade, Dawn, Febreze, Mr. Clean, and Swiffer brands. The company's Baby, Feminine & Family Care segment offers baby care products, such as baby wipes, diapers, and pants; adult incontinence and feminine care products; and family care products, such as paper towels, tissues, and toilet papers. This segment markets its products under the Pampers, Always, Bounty, Charmin, Luvs, and Tampax brands. The company sells its products through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, baby stores, specialty beauty stores, e-commerce, high-frequency stores, and pharmacies. The Procter & Gamble Company was founded in 1837. Company description from FinViz.com.

P&G is never going out of business but their continual slowdown in sales it a testament to the changing retail environment. Even their age old, die hard brands, like Tide and Mr. Clean are losing market share to the dozensof new products in the same category. Tide was the old reliable that everyone used 50-70 years ago. Now it is just one of the group of brand name products for washing clothes.

P&G posted adjusted earnings of 96 cents compared to estimates for 94 cents. Revenue of $15.61 billion declined -1% and missed estimates for $15.71 billion. The strong dollar caused a 2% decline in revenue. The company guided for a 1% decline in revenue for the year compared to prior guidance of flat revenue. The affirmed earnings estimates for $3.67. This was the 13th consecutive decline in quarterly revenue.

Earnings July 26th.

Shares dropped $3 on the revenue miss and weak guidance. Investors are not excited about owning a company with declining revenue. That always squeezes profits as well.

I am recommending a September option instead of July because the July expires the week before earnings. We are not going to hold over but I would like to have those earnings expectations in the premium when we exit. Buying longer dated options does not mean you have to hold them until maturity. We can buy time but we do not have to use it.

Position 5/2/17:

Long Sept $85 put @ $2.05, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SPY - S&P-500 SPDR ETF - ETF Profile

Comments:

The S&P posted a minor 3-point loss to close back at prior resistance at 2,388. This has been resistance for the prior five days. With Facebook and Tesla trading sharply lower in afterhours we could see further market weakness on Thursday.

The Dow and S&P have reached levels where we should begin worrying about a potential double top in the markets. The rally this week has erased nearly all the option premium. There is no reason to close the position for 25 cents.

Original Trade Description: March 25th.

The SPDR S&P 500 trust is an exchange-traded fund which trades on the NYSE Arca under the symbol. SPDR is an acronym for the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts, the former name of the ETF. It is designed to track the S&P 500 stock market index.

The S&P-500 is in danger of a material drop, possibly to 2,250 or the equivalent 225 level on the SPY ETF. The chart is unsupported and we are entering into a typically volatile period of the year over the next five weeks. I am recommending we buy insurance with a put on the SPY only IF the SPY trades at a new five-week low of 232.75. That way if the market opens higher on Monday we can watch to see if that direction holds before putting money at risk.

I believe if the market goes lower next week it could be the beginning of a major decline.

Position 3/27/17:

Long May $230 put @ $3.49, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.




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