Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 6/6/2017

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Political Fear

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

The major indexes declined in a whipsaw fashion as traders hedged their positions ahead of Thursday's events.

Market Statistics

The market opened lower but quickly rebounded only to be sold again. The second rebound had faded and the S&P was moving sideways when a news story broke at 1:10 that President Trump was planning on being on Twitter during the Comey testimony to rebut his comments in real time. The market instantly dipped but recovered an hour later. The rebound did not last and the closing sell off brought the markets back to their opening lows.


The Comey testimony is important because of the implications if he says the president tried to halt the investigation of Mike Flynn and his Russian ties. If he says the president was just trying to save the reputation of a good man and there was no pressure, the market should rally. If he says the president tried to intimidate him into halting the investigations, the market should crash. A NYT headline out today claims Comey told Atty General Session he did not want to meet with President Trump alone. Comey reportedly told Sessions he wanted the Justice Department to protect the FBI from White House intervention. This sounds like the president was applying pressure. This will be must see TV for the market.

The U.S. markets are likely to remain flat to down ahead of the Comey testimony. I seriously doubt anyone is going to be making big bets ahead of what could be a monumental problem for Trump if Comey turns hostile.

The ECB rate decision is not expected to have any impact on the U.S. markets but it still exists as a possible trouble point depending on what they say.

The UK election is on Thursday but the results will be very late because the polls do not close until 10:PM UK time and after our markets close. The impact from the election will be on Friday.

On the economic front, the only major report was the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April. Job openings rose 4.0% compared to 3.8% in March. The number of job openings rose to a cycle high at 6.044 million, up 7.1%. Hires declined from 5.304 million to 5.051 million. Separations declined from 5.198 million to 4.973 million. Quits declined from 3,138 to 3.027 million. Layoffs declined from 1.661 to 1.590 million. Note that ALL the components declined with the exception of job openings. The economy is creating jobs and workers with jobs are keeping them at a higher rate. It is good when the exit rates are low because it means workers and employers are satisfied. This report was for April so it was ignored.


On the earnings front, Retailer Conn's Inc (CONN) reported a loss of 5 cents that beat analyst estimates for a loss of 22 cents. Revenue of $355.8 million missed estimates for $358.7 million. On the surface, that was a decent earnings beat and the revenue miss was not that bad. However, same store sales fell -15.2% with furniture down -24.1% and mattress volume down -21.6%. Home office furniture and equipment declined -28.7%. The company said Q2 was not going to be any better with a 12% to 15% decline in same-store sales. I am shocked the decline in the stock was only 9%.


Retailer Fred's (FRED) reported a 6 cents loss which matched estimates. Revenue of $532.3 million fractionally missed estimates for $532.9 million. Same store sales fell -1.2% and that contained a -1.4% impact from the sale of discontinued inventory. Overall, it was a mediocre earnings report but a great report when compared to Conn's. Shares declined 12% on the news.


Canadian Solar (CSIQ) reported a loss of 10 cents compared to estimates for a loss of a penny. Revenue of $677 million far exceeded the estimate for $579.6 million. Total solar module shipments of 1,480 MW was well over guidance of 1,150-1,200 MW. Cash at the end of the quarter was $961.4 million and cash burn for the quarter was $55 million. Their portfolio of power plants in commercial operation was 1,156.5 MW with an estimated resale value of $1.6 billion. The earnings miss was overshadowed by the revenue beat and shares only declined 10 cents.


Apparel retailer G-III Apparel (GIII) reported a loss of 18 cents compared to estimates for a loss of 40 cents. Revenue of $529 million rose 16% and beat estimates for $498 million. The company said the money losing Donna Karan acquisition was turning the corner and should be profitable in the second half. The CEO said they "were closing and repurposing stores and enhancing store product offerings. All are expected to significantly reduce losses in our retail operations." Shares spiked 15% on the news.


HD Supply (HDS) reported earnings of 63 cents that missed estimates for 65 cents. Revenue of $1.87 billion beat estimates for $1.86 billion. Their GAAP earnings of 42 cents missed estimates for 66 cents. They guided for the current quarter for earnings of 60-65 cents and revenue in the range of $1.33-$1.37 billion. Analysts were expecting $2.1 billion and $1.05 per share. The company also said it was selling its Waterworks division to private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier and Rice for $2.5 billion. They plan on using $500 million for buybacks.


RV manufacturer Thor Industries (THO) reported blowout earnings of $2.11 compared to estimates for $1.87. Net income from operations rose 41.6%. Revenue of $2.02 billion rose 56.9% and beat estimates for $1.96 billion. Gross profits rose 45.5%. This was a monster report.

This suggests Winnebago (WGO) should also have strong earnings when they report on June 21st. (unconfirmed date).


Amabrella (AMBA) reported earnings of 39 cents that beat estimates for 36 cents. Revenue of $64.1 million beat estimates for $63.3 million. However, they guided for Q2 revenue of $69-$72 million and a decline in gross margins from 64.3% to 62.0%-63.5%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $72.3 million. Shares fell 6% in afterhours trading.


Dave and Busters (PLAY) reported earnings of 87 cents that beat estimates for 81 cents. Revenue of $204.1 million beat estimates for $299.6 million. They guided for full year earnings of $2.47 to $2.57 per share with revenue in the range of $1.16-$1.17 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.169 billion. Full year income guidance was $107-$111 million compared to prior guidance of $101-$105 million.


Dell remains the only major U.S. company on the earnings calendar for the rest of the week.


Tesla (TSLA) shares hit a new high at $359 intraday after Pacific Crest said shares could hit $439 with the delivery of the Model 3. First shipments are supposed to start in July and Musk confirmed that today. CEO Elon Musk asked shareholders to tweet him some questions for the shareholder meeting on Tuesday. One person tweeted "boxers or briefs" to which Musk replied, "Wearing anything at all is just a conspiracy by the capitalist running dogs of Big Underwear." Later he said "This is a metaphor for transparency. Also, (bleep) underwear." A shareholder noted the stock hit a record high after Musk said he went commando. Musk re-tweeted the post and did not deny it.

Tesla said they were restarting solar sales in Arizona after the state reinstated a policy forcing utility companies to pay homeowners at the full rate for power injected back into the grid. Eighteen months ago, they had changed that policy and solar sales died in Arizona, a state with a surplus of sunshine. Sales fell 32% in 2016.

At the shareholder meeting Musk said the initial Model 3 cars will only have two options, color and wheel size. This will allow for faster initial production. Also, the first cars will only come in 2-wheel drive. The 4-wheel drive versions will come later this year. Tesla plans to be making 5,000 Model 3s a week by the end of 2017 and 10,000 a week in 2018. Musk gave shareholders a lot more information on the electric semi truck to be revealed in September and a crossover called the Model Y they plan to deliver in 2019. Musk said major customers have been working with Tesla on the design of the truck and are urgently asking how many they can buy and how soon. The Model Y will be built in an entirely new factory. He said the 5.3 million sq foot Fremont will be too crowded building S, X and 3 models and Y will have to be built elsewhere. He expects Model Y demand to exceed that of the Model 3, which already has more than 400,000 orders.


Crude prices rose slightly as support at $47 appears to be holding. The API inventories showed a decline of 4.62 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories rose 4.1 million barrels and distillates 1.8 million barrels. That caused WTI prices to decline slightly in afterhours to $47.99. The EIA numbers on Wednesday are the ones that really count.

The EIA said it expected U.S. production to exceed 10 million bpd in 2018 and break the prior record set in 1970. At the same time, they reduced their forecast for oil prices for 2018 from $55.10 to $53.61 on average.


Markets

The markets today were simply the result of consolidation of the gains from the prior three weeks ahead of a potentially disastrous testimony on Thursday. There are significant market gains at risk. As of Friday's close, the S&P was up 88 points since the May 17th bottom at 2,352. That was nearly a 4% gain in just over two weeks. It would be very unusual if investors did not take some profits ahead of Thursday's events.

The S&P declined only 3 points on Monday and only six points today. Given the size of the gains that is minimal. The index closed at 2,432 and support should be 2,420. As long as that level holds, the rally is intact.


The Dow declined only slightly and closed right on prior resistance at 21,130. The decliners were the same stocks that had posted strong gains over the last several weeks. McDonalds had a long string of daily gains and new highs but has now declined two consecutive days. Boeing was setting new highs but has fallen sharply for two days. This is profit taking ahead of an event and it is actually only light selling.

If the Dow continues lower the next support is around 21,000 followed by 20,900, 20,600 and 20,400. Let's hope we do not see any levels that start with a 20.



The Nasdaq big caps weighed on the index with Amazon and Alphabet high up on the losers list. There were some big gainers offsetting those losers so the 20-point decline was not material.

The gain in WINS was crazy. That was a $20 stock three days ago and it rocketed higher today to $82 on 35 times its 5,000 share average daily volume on no news. Today's gain was a 107% increase.

The Nasdaq has no real support until 6,200 and remains overbought. If investors decide to take their sizeable gains in the FAANG stocks, we could see that 6,200 level very quickly. Resistance is 6,300.



The Russell 2000 small caps had a decent day. They rebounded off the morning lows and actually went positive in the afternoon before finishing the day with a minor loss. I am surprised the Russell is showing any strength since Friday is the day the first deletion list will be released. That could lead to another round of shorting by individual investors.


I would be surprised if the market posted any material gains on Wednesday. Volume should be light. Unless there are new headlines tonight to cause more uncertainty, the cautious traders should have exited by now. We could see some bargain hunting given the two days of declines.

Thursday could see some heightened volatility but any comments that do not suggest there was potential obstruction of justice, should be met with a new round of buying. As I said earlier, this will be must see TV.

Enter passively, exit aggressively!

Jim Brown

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New Option Plays

Subscription Software

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

Autodesk has been making new highs but they are not the only company in this space. PTC Inc is also in the CAD SAAS space and they are also making new highs.


NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

PTC - PTC Inc - Company Profile

PTC Inc. develops and delivers software products and solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Software Products and Services. The company computer-aided design products, including PTC Creo, an interoperable suite of product design software for design engineers; and PTC Mathcad software for solving, analyzing, and sharing vital engineering calculations. It also offers product lifecycle management products comprising PTC Windchill that provides lifecycle intelligence; and PTC Creo View, which enables enterprise-wide visualization, verification, annotation, and automated comparison of various product development data formats. In addition, the company provides application lifecycle management products, such as PTC Integrity that enables users to manage system models, software configurations, test plans, and defects, as well as model-based systems engineering solutions that connect requirements engineering, architecture modeling, physical product definition, and system verification functions. Further, it offers service lifecycle management products that include PTC Servigistics, a suite of software products that enable a systematic approach to service lifecycle management; and PTC Arbortext, an enterprise software suite that allows manufacturers to create, illustrate, manage, and publish technical and service parts information. Additionally, the company provides Internet of Things products, such as ThingWorx, KEPServerEX, Vuforia Studio, and Vuforia, which enable customers to design, connect, operate and service smart and connected products. In addition, it provides consulting, implementation, training, cloud, and license and support services. The company was formerly known as Parametric Technology Corporation and changed its name to PTC Inc. in January 2013. Company description from FinViz.com.

PTC is similar to AutoDesk (ADSK) and business is booming for both of them. PTC just announced ThingWorx Manufacturing Apps that will drive 3D printers.

They reported earnings of 30 cents that beat estimates for 28 cents. Revenue of $280 million missed estimates for $283.2 million. They guided for the current quarter for earnings of 24-29 cents and revenue in the $288-$293 range. For the full year they guided to $1.13-$1.23 and revenue of $1.16-$1.17 billion.

Expected earnings July 19th.

Like AutoDesk, Adobe Systems, etc, they are shifting from a software sales model to a cloud subscription model. This is impacting current earnings as they lose the short-term cash flow from sales but replace it with the long-term cash flow from subscriptions. Subscriptions now account for 71% of bookings. Q2 license and subscription revenue rose 11%. License and subscription bookings rose 20% to $185 million.

They project that every 1% increase in subscription revenue will add $4 million in annual revenue and 3 cents in earnings.

Shares spiked on earnings then went sideways for two weeks while those gains were consolidated. Shares began rising over the last three days and closed at a new high on Tuesday.

They report earnings on July 19th and the July options expire on the 21st. However with the stock at $59.65, the $60 strike is inflated and the July $65 may be out of range for the limited time. I am recommending we go with the October strikes so the earnings expectations will still be in the premium when we exit before earnings. Because it is a longer strike the premium will not fade as quickly. We get the benefit of the higher strike and lower premium and the potential build in expectations. Just because we buy times does not mean we have to use it.

Buy Oct $65 call, currently $2.30, initial stop loss $54.50.


NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

No New Bearish Plays



In Play Updates and Reviews

Testimony Concerns

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown

Editors Note:

The market weakened again as we move closer to the Comey testimony. The major indexes weakened despite some dip buying at the open, 11:30 and again at 2:PM. The highs were hit at 2:35 and there was a major sell program just before the close. Investors appear to be growing concerned about the testimony.

Many stocks with big gains over the last couple weeks are seeing major declines for profit taking. Boeing, L Brands, McDonalds and Orbital ATK were hit by profit taking with no news to support the declines.



Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


TTD - The Trade Desk
The long call position was entered at the open.



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Long and short equity trades = Premier Investor



BULLISH Play Updates

AAPL - Apple Inc - Company Profile

Comments:

Lots of news from WWDC but nothing that moved the stock. Most of the headlines were related to things that happened on Monday. Michelle Obama spoke at the conference on Tuesday but the press was not allowed. Shares moved up in the afternoon but sold off into the close when the market rolled over.

Original Trade Description: May 27th.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players to consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and education, enterprise, and government customers worldwide. The company also sells related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. It offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and Mac, a line of desktop and portable personal computers. The company also provides iLife, a consumer-oriented digital lifestyle software application suite; iWork, an integrated productivity suite that helps users create, present, and publish documents, presentations, and spreadsheets; and other application software, such as Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro X, and FileMaker Pro. In addition, it offers Apple TV that connects to consumers' TV and enables them to access digital content directly for streaming high definition video, playing music and games, and viewing photos; Apple Watch, a personal electronic device; and iPod, a line of portable digital music and media players. Further, the company sells Apple-branded and third-party Mac-compatible, and iOS-compatible accessories, such as headphones, displays, storage devices, Beats products, and other connectivity and computing products and supplies. Additionally, it offers iCloud, a cloud service; AppleCare that offers support options for its customers; and Apple Pay, a mobile payment service. The company sells and delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App Store, Mac App Store, TV App Store, iBooks Store, and Apple Music. It also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. Company description from FinViz.com.

The eyes of the world will be focused on Apple in two weeks as it updates application developers on all the new features and software in its various products. This covers the iPhone, iPads, Macs and Watches. Apple routinely tries to keep from giving away its best secrets but it is impossible for developers to develop unless they know what they are developing. There are always leaks. This typically provides a boost to Apple shares.

Apple reports earnings on August 1st. That is getting close to the normal September announcement date for the iPhone 8. If the buzz from the developers conference is good we could see shares rise into that earnings report.

Shares have been flat for the last three weeks despite the constantly rising Nasdaq. The WWDC could be the catalyst that lifts Apple shares out of this consolidation pattern.

Update 5/31/17: ZDNet said Apple has already started production on its competitor to the Amazon Echo. The device will not be announced publicly until later but there will be clues at the WWDC that starts on Monday. Reportedly, it will have surround sound and better quality than Amazon and Google. Apple will need to release some info to developers at the conference if they want any applications available when the smart device begins shipping.

Update 6/5/17: Apple announced a ton of new features and a couple new devices on the opening day of the WWDC. The Apple Watch was upgraded with dozens of new features that will actually make is useful. They announced the new macOS called High Sierra and a bunch of new MacBooks to go with the OS. They announced a new iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air. The iMac Pro will start at $4,999 with a 5K display from Nvidia. Buyers will have a choice of a 8, 12 or 18 core processor, which is maximum overkill. They announced peer-to-peer payments to compete with Paypal, Venmo and Square Cash. They announced the ARKit which will allow developers to easily creare augmented reality apps for iOS devices. They upgraded the 105 and 12.9 inch iPads but left the 9.7 inch model alone. They announced the Apple HomePod speaker, powered by Siri, to compete with Google and Amazon's Echo.

I am using the August strikes so the earnings expectations will keep the premium inflated. I do not plan on holding over earnings. We will exit in July or earlier depending on how the stock reacts to the WWDC news.

The August strikes are expensive so I am recommending a spread.

Position 5/30/17:

Long Aug $155 call @ $4.89, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Short Aug $165 call @ $1.67, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Net debit $3.22.


ADP - Automatic Data - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor gain in a weak market.

Original Trade Description: June 1st.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business process outsourcing services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services. The Employer Services segment offers a range of business outsourcing and technology-enabled human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration services, talent management, human resources management solutions, time and attendance management solutions, insurance services, retirement services, and tax and compliance solutions. This segment's integrated HCM solutions include RUN Powered by ADP, ADP Workforce Now, ADP Vantage HCM, and ADP GlobalView, which assist employers of all sizes in all stages of the employment cycle from recruitment to retirement; and ADP SmartCompliance and ADP Health Compliance. The PEO Services segment provides a human resources (HR) outsourcing solution through a co-employment model to small and mid-sized businesses. This segment offers ADP TotalSource that provides various HR management services and employee benefits functions, such as HR administration, employee benefits, and employer liability management into a single-source solution. Company description from FinViz.com.

When ADP reported they beat on earnings with $1.29 compared to estimates for $1.23 but revenues of $3.41 billion missed estimates of $3.43 billion. The news that tanked the stock was a 7% decline in new bookings. Every other metric was fine. The company guided for full year revenue growth of 6% and earnings to rise 17-18%.

Who would not want to own a company growing revenue 6% and earnings 17% per year. Those are good solid numbers.

Apparently there were enough knee jerk sellers to crash the stock from $104 to $95. After two weeks in the doghouse shares began to rise again and they are almost back to $104.

The stock has tried to break out three times this year and each time gets just a little higher before failing. This time, I expect a breakout, market permitting.

Earnings August 2nd.

Position 6/2/17:

Long Aug $105 call @ $1.05, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


ATVI - Activision Blizzard - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor gain to a new closing high.

Original Trade Description: May 22nd.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. develops and publishes games for video game consoles, personal computers (PC), mobile devices, and online social platforms. The company operates through three segments: Activision Publishing, Inc., Blizzard Entertainment, Inc., and King Digital Entertainment. The company develops, publishes, and sells interactive software products and entertainment content through retail channels or digital downloads; and downloadable content. It also publishes subscription-based massive multiplayer online role-playing games; and strategy and role-playing games. In addition, the company maintains a proprietary online gaming service, Battle.net that facilitates the creation of user generated content, digital distribution, and online social connectivity in its games. Further, it engages in creating original film and television content; and provides warehousing, logistics, and sales distribution services to third-party publishers of interactive entertainment software, as well as manufacturers of interactive entertainment hardware products. The company serves retailers and distributors, including mass-market retailers, consumer electronics stores, discount warehouses, game specialty stores, and consumers through third-party distribution and licensing arrangements in the United States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malta, Mexico, the Netherlands, Romania, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. Activision Blizzard, Inc. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

Activision reported Q1 earnings of 56 cents, up 17%. Sales rose 19% to $1.73 billion. Activision had originally guided for 25 cents and $1.55 billion. Analysts were expecting 22 cents and $1.1 billion so it was a major blowout. For the full year, they raised guidance to 88 cents and $6.1 billion, up from 72 cents and $6.0 billion.

Blizzards's monthly active users rose to 431 million. King Digital has 342 million active users. The new Overwatch game was the fastest Blizzard title to hit 25 million registered players and now has more than 30 million. Revenues from in game purchases rose 25% driven by World of Warcraft and Overwatch customization features.

Activision is a powerhouse with rapidly rising revenue and multiple game titles arriving in the coming months.

Earnings August 3rd.

Shares dropped sharply with the market last Wednesday and have already rebounded to close at a new high today.

Position 5/23/17:

Long August $60 calls @ $2.66, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


BA - Boeing - Company Profile

Comments:

Lion Air confirmed it will be a "launch customer" for Boeing's new 737-MAX 10 model with 190-230 seats. SpiceJet, United, Jet Airways are also in negotiations.

Shares fell hard again on a complete lack of negative news.

Original Trade Description: May 25th.

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, and launch systems and services worldwide. It operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft for various passenger and cargo requirements; and provides related support services to the commercial airline industry. This segment also offers aviation services support, aircraft modifications, spare parts, training, maintenance documents, and technical advice to commercial and government customers. The Boeing Military Aircraft segment researches, develops, produces, and modifies manned and unmanned military aircraft, and weapons systems for global strike, vertical lift, and autonomous systems, as well as mobility, surveillance, and engagement. The Network & Space Systems segment researches, develops, produces, and modifies strategic defense and intelligence systems, satellite systems, and space exploration products. The Global Services & Support segment provides integrated logistics services comprising supply chain management and engineering support; maintenance, modification, and upgrades for aircraft; and training systems and government services that include pilot and maintenance training. The Boeing Capital segment offers financing services and manages financing exposure for a portfolio of equipment under operating and finance leases, notes and other receivables, assets held for sale or re-lease, and investments. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Company description from FinViz.com.

Boeing dipped last week after the test flights for the 737-MAX were halted temporarily. Boeing is expecting to begin deliveries of that model later this month. The problem was a low pressure disk in the LEAP-18 engine built by CFM International. That is a joint venture between GE and France's Safran. The halt was only a day before Boeing announced they were resuming flights of the planes without the LEAP-18 engines. CFM said the problem would be fixed within "weeks" because an alternate supplier was increasing production of the specific part. That problem has already been forgotten.

Boeing has dozens of projects underway and the biggest backlog of plane orders in history. The 787 Dreamliner is already on its third revision. The first plane was the 787-8 then there was the 787-9 and now the 787-10. The 787-8 was barely profitable because of higher than expected production costs. However, the improved 787-9 and 10 are highly profitable and in high demand. The delivery mix fell to only 25% model 8s in Q1. Currently there are 672 Dreamliners on order and only 89 are for the model 8. By the time the planes are actually built that will probably decline much further. Orders being transferred from airlines to leasing companies are typically upgraded to the more desirable models because the leasing companies want the longest lasting, fully featured models so the lease rates remain higher longer. The newest version the 787-10 already has 169 orders and it costs $40 million more than the model 8 but only costs a couple million more to produce. Analysts believe Boeing's profitability will rise $1.5 billion on this order shuffle alone.

Boeing got another windfall when Trump was elected and suddenly took an interest in producing more F-18 Hornet's than F-35s. Boeing was only expected to produce 5 Hornets this year with a big order for F18 Growlers filling out the production line. The Growlers are the radar jamming planes that protect a flight of fighters. In the budget that was just passed, an additional $1.1 billion was allocated for 14 additional F-18s in this year. Trump had asked for 24 but Congress only approved 14. There will be a lot more in the budget for 2018. The F-18 is the workhorse of the Navy and many of their older planes are reaching the 6,000 flight hour maximum threshold. That means the Navy will need hundreds over the next several years to replace the aging aircraft. Boeing expects the production line to increase to 3-4 per month starting in 2020. Boeing expects another 100 planes to be ordered over the next five budget cycles and possibly more as the military scales down requests for F-35s in favor of the much cheaper F-18s. Boeing has an enhancement called Block III that basically gives the F-18 the networking capability of the F-35. They envision a stealthy F-35 entering hostile airspace and doing reconnaissance and then transmitting back threat and target information to the heavily armed F-18s to actually carry out the attacks. Over the last five years, the Navy has requested five times as many F-18s as F-35s. A F-18 costs $75 million and F-35 $121 million.

Boeing said on any given day 2 out of every three F-18 planes are out of commission waiting for repairs. Planes have been flown hard in the post 9/11 world with multiple theaters of war and planes down for a single part end up getting cannibalized for other parts to keep the remaining planes flying.

Boeing will also profit from the $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and the escalation to $350 billion over the next decade.

All of this means Boeing is going to remain highly profitable for a very long time and this is just two production lines of the dozens of products being manufactured by the company.

Earnings July 26th.

Shares made a new high on May 9th at $187 before dropping back to $182 on the market decline. That drop has been erased and shares are poised to break out to a new high and probably begin a new leg even higher.

Update 5/27/17: Tom Cruise said he was planning on filming a new Top Gun movie in 2018. Since the F-14 is no longer flown and the F-35 is not yet available for its film debut, Boeing will probably receive a major public relations bonanza with the F/A-18 Super Hornet in the title role. If it stars in the movie it would be a major advertising win because the capabilities will be shown all around the world and that could generate additional orders.

Boeing received a new $58.6 million contract to demonstrate a new generation of technology to intercept and destroy multiple missiles fired at the USA. This is a result of the accelerated missile testing currently in progress in North Korea. The technology is called the Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV). Basically, it would be one missile that would be launched at an incoming swarm of hostile missiles. As the MOKV nears the intercept point it would itself launch multiple interceptors and each would be directed to a different target by the radar and communication systems on the MOKV. Instead of firing one missile from the ground to target one incoming missile, the MOKV would be like launching a launching pad of missiles to a predetermined location and then having it attack the swarm on its own. This is not going to be cheap technology.

Boeing also said it won a $89 million contract from the Navy to incorporate the Block II Infrared Search Track System in the F/A-18 E/F aircraft.

Update 5/31/17: The Boeing Midcourse Defense anti-missile system performed flawlessly and knocked down a target ICBM fired from the Marshal Islands on Tuesday. This is the equivalent of a bullet hitting a bullet with a closing speed of more than 2,000 mph in space. That is pretty impressive. Boeing is the prime contractor with Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon (RTN) and Orbital ATK (OA) the key subcontractors. Shares closed at a new high.

Update 6/1/17: Boeing shares dipped at the open after the company got into a fight with the Canadian Defense Minister. Boeing complained that Canadian firm Bombardier was selling jets to U.S. customers below cost because of subsidies from the Canadian government. The defense minister became irate and cut off contact with Boeing regarding a potential order for 18 F-18 Super Hornets to replace some of their aging CF-18 fighters. This was just a headline storm. It is not material to Boeing at this time.

Options are expensive so I am recommending a spread.

Position 5/26/17:

Long Aug $190 call @ $5.15, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Short Aug $200 call @ $1.79, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Net debit $3.36.


COST - Costco - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news.

Original Trade Description: June 1st.

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates membership warehouses. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company provides dry and packaged foods, and groceries; snack foods, candies, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; meat, bakery, deli, and produces; and apparel and small appliances. It also operates gas stations, pharmacies, optical dispensing centers, food courts, and hearing-aid centers; and engages in the travel businesses. In addition, the company provides gold star individual and business membership services. As of August 28, 2016, it operated 715 warehouses, including 501 warehouses in the United States, Washington, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico; 91 in Canada; 36 in Mexico; 28 in the United Kingdom; 25 in Japan; 12 in Korea; 12 in Taiwan; 8 in Australia; and 2 in Spain. Further, the company sells its products through online. Company description from FinViz.com.

Costco reported earnings of $1.59 compared to estimates for $1.30. Revenue of $28.22 billion rose 8% but missed estimates for $28.6 billion. Same store sales rose 5% and beat expectations for 4%. Shares spiked $2.50 on the report.

Earnings August 24th.

On May 31st, Costco reported May sales results of $9.86 billion, an increase of 7%. Same store sales rose 4.5% in the U.S. and 6.4% internationally with the company average at 4.5%.

Guggenheim said the May comps reinforce the case for 20% earnings growth in Q4. Costco customers are on track to spend more than $100 billion on their Visa branded credit cards and 70% will be at retailers that are not Costco. The company stands to make $170 million on the commissions from Visa.

People love to shop at Costco and they spend a lot of money. A weekend shopping trip to the local Costco store will expose you to roughly 30 tables of free samples as Costco employees cook up concoctions available for sale in the store. Broiled salmon, cocktail weenies, crab dip, jalapeno biscuits, barbecue, etc, are all available for tasting. Weekend shopping takes on a party atmosphere and the local stores are always full. Amazon cannot crack this code.

We played Costco before the earnings and exited with a nice gain after they announced $7 special dividend for mid May. Now that earnings are over and shares are breaking out to a new high, it is time to play them again.

Position 6/5/17:

Long July $183 Call @ $2.60, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


FB - Facebook - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news.

Original Trade Description: May 17th.

Facebook, Inc. provides various products to connect and share through mobile devices, personal computers, and other surfaces worldwide. Its solutions include Facebook Website and mobile application that enables people to connect, share, discover, and communicate each other on mobile devices and personal computers; Instagram, a mobile application that enables people to take photos or videos, customize them with filter effects, and share them with friends and followers in a photo feed or send them directly to friends; Messenger, a messaging application to communicate with people and businesses across platforms and devices; and WhatsApp Messenger, a mobile messaging application. The company also offers Oculus virtual reality technology and content platform, which allow people to enter an immersive and interactive environment to play games, consume content, and connect with others. Company description from FinViz.com.

Facebook also blew away earnings estimates and they are growing earnings at the fastest rate of any of the FAANG stocks. They have multiple revenue streams and sites like Instagram and WhatsApp that are just starting to accelerate earnings. They said Instagram had reached 50,000 advertisers. Facebook's problem is they do not have enough page views to monetize despite the 1.9 billion users. They have more advertisers than they have space.

Earnings August 2nd.

Facebook had been moving sideways since hitting the $153 high post earnings. Volatility was low and investors were just waiting for a market dip so they could get a better entry point. Share fell to uptrend support at $145 and even if they due decline further there is strong support around $140.

Update 5/18/27: Facebook was fined $122.4 million by EU regulators for giving them false information in the WhatsApp acquisition process. The EU asked how many WhatsApp users were also Facebook users and the company said it did not know and did not have way of matching the usernames. A year after the acquisition Facebook launched a service that did match users and the EU said they had the capability all the time.

The company also announced a new effort to reduce "clickbait" headlines and punish websites that continually publish fake news. I hope they are successful.

Update 5/19/17: Facebook is going to live stream 20 Major League Baseball Friday night games. The company also said it was adding an "Order Food" option to let some users order, pay and have food delivered or be available for pickup. The service works with restaurants that use Delivery.com or Slice.

Update 5/22/17: Facebook shares were weak after the BROWSER bill was introduced in the House. Websites and browsers must get explicit permission from users in order to collect and use personal data including browser history, search terms, cookies, etc. They also cannot deny you the use of their program if you decline to give them permission to use your data. While the bill has little chance of passing it was a wet blanket on Facebook today.

Update 5/24/17: Reuters reported that Facebook has signed content deals with Vox Media, Buzzfeed, ATTN, Group Nine Media and others to begin creating shows for its upcoming video service. They are going to develop both short and long form content with ad breaks included. The first scripted shows will be up to 30 min which Facebook will own. The second tier will be shorter scripted and unscripted shows with episodes lasting 5-10 minutes.

Position 5/18/17:

Long Aug $150 call @ $4.90, no initial stop loss.


LB - L Brands - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news.

Original Trade Description: May 30th.

L Brands, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, beauty and personal care products, and accessories. The company operates in three segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. Its products include loungewear, bras, panties, swimwear, athletic attire, fragrances, shower gels and lotions, aromatherapy, soaps and sanitizers, home fragrances, handbags, jewelry, and personal care accessories. The company offers its products under the Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works, La Senza, Henri Bendel, C.O. Bigelow, White Barn, and other brand names. L Brands, Inc. sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Greater China, which are primarily mall-based; through its Websites comprising VictoriasSecret.com, BathandBodyWorks.com, HenriBendel.com, and LaSenza.com; and through franchises, licenses, and wholesale partners. As of January 28, 2017, the company operated 2,755 retail stores in the United States; 270 retail stores in Canada; 18 retail stores in the United Kingdom; and 31 retail stores in the Greater China area. It also operated 203 La Senza stores in 24 countries; 159 Bath & Body Works stores in 30 countries; 23 Victoria's Secret stores in 12 countries; 391 Victoria's Secret Beauty and Accessories stores in 70 countries; and 5 PINK stores in 3 countries. The company was formerly known as Limited Brands, Inc. Company description from FinViz.com.

The company reported its seventh consecutive quarter of positive earnings surprises despite a minor revenue miss. Earnings of 33 cents beat estimates for 29 cents. That was well above the company's own guidance for 20-25 cents. Revenue of $2.436 billion was slightly lower than the estimate for $2.456 billion.

The bad news was a 9% decline in same store sales. The majority of that was due to the exit from swimwear and related apparel categories. This has been in progress for about two years. Those two categories created a 6% decline for the lack of swimwear and 9% decline for the related apparel. Excluding those the comp sales were in line with estimates. However, Victoria Secret lingerie sales declined -12% while PINK sales rose in the low single-digits.

They raised their 2017 guidance to earnings of $3.10-$3.40, up from $3.05-$3.35. Q2 earnings guidance was 40-45 cents. Analysts were expecting $3.19 and 45 cents.

Expected earnings Aug 16th.

Update 6/1/17: The company said despite a 10-14% impact from the discontinued swimsuit and swim apparel lines, same store sales for May only declined -7%. That means without that impact sales would have been up 3% or more.

Shares were down ahead of earnings to $47.50. They have rebounded to a two-week high and appear to be on the road to recovery. Resistance is $53.50.

Position 5/31/17:

Long August $52.50 call @ $2.35, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


MCD - McDonalds - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. First back to back decline since the end of April.

Original Trade Description: May 3rd.

McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, Latin America, and internationally. The company's restaurants offer various food products, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 36,899 restaurants, including 31,230 franchised restaurants comprising 21,559 franchised to conventional franchisees, 6,300 licensed to developmental licensees, and 3,371 licensed to foreign affiliates; and 5,669 company-operated restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois. Company description from FinViz.com.

McDonalds is surging because they have overhauled their menu, offered breakfast all day, shifted to fresh beef, mobile ordering, delivery with UberEats, kiosks AND they are selling coffee for $1 and specialty drinks for $2. That is vastly lower than Starbucks and it is helping them steal market share. People stopping by to pick up a cheap coffee tend to order a snack as well. Who can resist adding an Egg McMuffin to go with that coffee.

McDonalds reported better than expected earnings and raised guidance. They reported $1.47 compared to estimates for $1.33. Revenue of $5.68 billion beat estimates for $5.53 billion. Same store sales rose 1.7% compared to expectations for an 0.8% decline. Global sales were up 4%.

Earnings July 25th.

Goldman has had a neutral rating on them forever but upgraded the fast food giant today to a buy with $153 price target. Goldman admitted they were late but said there was still plenty of time given the improved metrics. Goldman cited McDonald's "Experience of the Future" plans for mobile ordering and kiosks and said the expanding delivery options could expand revenue.

McDonalds closed at a new high today in a weak market.

Update 5/4/17: McDonalds said it was adding Signature Crafted Recipes to its stores in Florida and would be adding 5,000 workers to handle the volume.

Update 5/15/17: McDonald's Bar-B-Que opened on May 15th, 1940. The store closed and was later reopened in 1948 with only 9 items on the menu. Hamburgers were 15 cents, cheeseburgers 19 cents and cokes/coffee were 10 cents. Today, McDonalds serves 77 million customers a day. Short history of MCD in pictures The stock celebrated today with a new high.

Update 5/18/17: McDonald's added 1,000 additional restaurants to its McDelivery program utilizing UberEATS food delivery service. They had been testing at 200 stores in Florida since January. Apparently, McDonalds customers are loving it.

Update 5/22/17: The Chicago Tribune said restaurants offering the delivery service were seeing a surge in large orders. People are ordering the 40-piece Chicken McNuggets in quantity as well as the Big Mac and Chicken McNuggets Meal Bundle. That is 2 Big Macs, a 20-piece McNugget, 3 medium fries and 3 beverages for $14.99, which were also being ordered in quantities. When you think about it, if you are having friends over, ordering multiples of those deals gives everyone a choice and plenty to eat. Having UberEats deliver it is simpler than having someone gather up everyone's orders and money and then driving to McDonalds, waiting in line and then waiting while they put together your large order. If you can get it all home without spilling french fries and soda all over your car you are very lucky. This is another reason why McDonalds sales are going to rise in the coming quarters.

Update 5/31/17: McDonalds said they were expanding the mobile delivery from 1,100 stores to 3,500 by the end of June. They are planning on expanding to all 14,000 stores by the end of the year. This is a very big deal for McDonalds.

Update 6/1/17: Telsey Advisory Group reiterated an outperform but raised their price target from $150 to $165.

Position 5/4/17:

Long July $145 call @ $1.67, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


NFLX - Netflix - Company Profile

Comments:

Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price target from $165 to $190 saying international subscriptions are set to surge. The analyst said Netflix has 50% penetration in the US households with broadband access but only 5.7% internationally. He expects that international number to rise dramatically as advertising and acceptance grows.

Original Trade Description: May 17th.

Netflix, Inc., an Internet television network, engages in the Internet delivery of television (TV) shows and movies on various Internet-connected screens. The company operates in three segments: Domestic Streaming, International Streaming, and Domestic DVD. It offers members with the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected screens, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. The company also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services. It serves approximately 100 million streaming members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

Netflix posted blowout earnings and shares rocketed higher to hit $161 on Monday. I have been waiting for three weeks for a pullback. Analysts are projecting higher highs with the high price targets at $175. There have been continuous rumors that either Disney or Apple will try to buy them not only to acquire the platform but to keep the other company from acquiring it. Both have said they want to have a big presence in streaming. Tim Cook just said it last week. Both have the cash and Disney has billions of dollars in content it can immediately add to the platform.

Netflix is expected to add 3 million subscribers in Q2. They are testing higher prices in Australia to see what price levels will cause subscriber flight. Once they figure it out you can bet they will apply it to the rest of their 100 million customers. That is instant profit. Bumping rates by $5 gets them another $500 million a month in revenue.

They announced with earnings they were finally entering China through a partnership with the largest existing streamer in China. This is one more step to a full release in the future.

Update 5/18/17: The FCC voted 2-1 to roll back the 2015 net neutrality order from President Obama. Some say this will impact major internet users like Netflix. However, the company said last month that elimination of the order would not have any impact on their business because they were big enough and had a broad enough customer base that ISPs would not try to slow down their streaming traffic. The order prevented ISPs from charging for faster bandwidth for heavy users. Netflix is responsible for 40% of the internet traffic in peak hours.

Update 5/22/17: Netflix expects to have 102 million subscribers by the end of Q2 with 51.45 million in the U.S. and 50.49 million internationally. Three years ago the company only had 11 million international subscribers. They expect international numbers to exceed U.S. subscribers by the end of the third quarter. With international subscribers growing roughly 3 million per quarter they should reach 100 million in 2020 as acceptance continues to grow. That puts them on track for 200 million total subscribers by 2025.

Update 5/27/17: Piper Jaffray reiterated an overweight rating this morning but raised the price target from $166 to $190. The analyst said Netflix probably low-balled the company's 2020 earnings expectations by as much as half. The analyst said it the international viewers grow as well over the next 10 quarters as the last 10 then expectations could be 100% too low. They believe Netflix could have 180 million international subscribers by 2020. Jaffray said the total addressable market of broadband viewers could be more than 765 million by 2020.

MKM Partners also raised their price target from $175 to $195.

Update 6/2/17: Tom Lee of Fundstrat said "stick with the FANG stocks in 2H-2017 for 20% to 40% additional gains." Netflix added $2 to a new high close.

Earnings July 17th.

We have to use a spread because options are still expensive.

Position 5/18/17:

Long July $160 call @ $6.45, no initial stop loss.
Short July $175 call @ $2.16, no initial stop loss.
Net debit $4.29.


OA - Orbital ATK - Company Profile

Comments:

Orbital delivered the 500th AARGM missile to the U.S. Navy. This is a supersonic air to ground anti-radar missile for knocking out military radar and communications sites.

Original Trade Description: May 24th.

Orbital ATK is a global leader in aerospace and defense technologies. The company designs, builds and delivers space, defense and aviation systems for customers around the world, both as a prime contractor and merchant supplier. Its main products include launch vehicles and related propulsion systems; missile products, subsystems and defense electronics; precision weapons, armament systems and ammunition; satellites and associated space components and services; and advanced aerospace structures. (Company supplied description.)

The company reported earnings on May 11th of $1.23 that missed estimates for $1.39. The miss was due to a surprise hike in the tax rate that analysts were not expecting. There was an event two years ago that caused a lower tax rate in the year ago quarter. Analysts factored in that repeat rate without realizing it was a one-time event. Revenue of $1.085 billion beat estimates for $1.083 billion.

Revenue in the Flight Systems Group, Defense Systems Group and Space Systems Group was up between 4.6% and 5.2%. Order backlogs at the end of the quarter were up 12% to $9.8 billion. Total backlogs including options and indefinite quantity contracts were $14.8 billion.

The company guided for 2017 earnings of $5.80-$6.20 and revenues of $4.550-$4.625 billion. Free cash flow is expected to be $250-$300 million.

Earnings August 10th.

Today Orbital received a $76 million order for 50 caliber ammunition from the U.S. Army. Orbital operates the Lake City ammunition plant for the military under an $8 billion facilities management contract. Last month they announced a $92 million order for 5.56mm and 7.62mm ammunition. Since taking over the plant they have produced more than 17 billion rounds of small caliber ammunition. They also received a $53 million contract to produce 120mm and 105mm ammunition including the new M1002 and M724A2 rounds for howitzers and tanks. To date they have produced more than 5 million rounds of large caliber ammunition.

Orbital ATK's Defense Systems Group is an industry leader in providing innovative and affordable precision and strike weapons, advanced propulsion and hypersonics, missile components across air-, sea- and land-based systems, ammunition and related energetic products.

Shares broke over resistance at $99.75 today on the award win. With the emphasis on higher defense spending and a war fighter now in charge of the military, we can expect future orders to continue. Add in their missile systems, space launch systems, etc and Orbital is a good candidate to play this sector.

Update 5/30/17: Orbital was awarded a $9- million contract to produce composite structures for the B-2 Sprit stealth bomber. The new parts will increase the survival ability and the life span of the B-2 bombers.

Update 5/31/17: The Boeing Midcourse Defense anti-missile system performed flawlessly and knocked down a target ICBM fired from the Marshal Islands on Tuesday. This is the equivalent of a bullet hitting a bullet with a closing speed of more than 2,000 mph in space. That is pretty impressive. Boeing is the prime contractor with Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon (RTN) and Orbital ATK (OA) the key subcontractors. Shares rebounded sharply.

Position 5/15/17:

Long Aug $105 call @ $2.60, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


SHOP - Shopify - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. New closing high.

Original Trade Description: May 31st.

Shopify Inc. provides a cloud-based multi-channel commerce platform for small and medium-sized businesses in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and internationally. Its platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers in various sales channels, including Web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces; and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, ship orders, build customer relationships, and leverage analytics and reporting. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Company description from FinViz.com.

The company reported a Q1 loss of 4 cents compared to estimates for a loss of 11 cents. Revenue rose 75% to $127.4 million and beat estimates for $122.1 million. Merchant solution revenue rose 92% to $65.3 million and subscription revenue rose 60% to $62.1 million. They guided for Q2 to revenues of $142-$144 million and the full year for $615-$630 million. That is above their prior guidance of $580-$600 million.

Expected earnings August 1st.

The company was very positive about the future outlook. On May 18th they announced a secondary offering for $500 million at $91 per share. The stock dropped from $91 to $81 on the news but immediately recovered. Wednesday's close was a two-week high after that announcement.

SHOP has been discussed multiple times as takeover bait for Ebay or Amazon. Neither company will comment but Amazon would be the likely player. They could gobble up Shopify at $7 billion like a late night snack.

I believe shares are going to resume their upward momentum now that the secondary offering has been consumed by the market.

Update 6/5/17: The S&P/TSX index is considering whether to add SHOP to the Canadian index. That would equate to about 5.4 million shares of additional buying from index funds. The rule change that would allow SHOP to benefit is out for comment until June 9th.

I wanted to buy calls that expire after earnings but there are no August strikes yet. The next strike in October is too expensive. Even the short-term strikes are expensive so I am going with a July spread to reduce the risk.

Position 6/1/17:

Long July $95 call @ $5.25, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Short July $105 call @ $2.35, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Net debit $2.90.


TTD - The Trade Desk - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news but managed to post a gain in a weak market.

Original Trade Description: June 5th.

The Trade Desk is a technology company that empowers buyers of advertising. Through its self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize more expressive data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and, social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. Integrations with major data, inventory, and publisher partners ensure maximum reach and decisioning capabilities, and enterprise APIs enable custom development on top of the platform. Headquartered in Ventura, CA, The Trade Desk has offices across the United States, Europe, and Asia. Company description from Trade Desk.

In May the company reported adjusted earnings of 18 cents on revenue of $53.4 million. They did not give earnings guidance but their revenue guidance was $43 million. They guided for EBITDA of -$2 to +$2 million and posted $6.3 million.

Since going public last September they have beaten guidance on all three quarterly reports. Year over year revenue growth has risen 84%, 70% and now 76% for those three reports. Customer retention has been over 95% for 13 consecutive quarters.

The company guided for full year revenue of $291 million, up from $270 million in the prior guidance. The adjusted EBITDA goal was raised from $72 million to $78 million.

Earnings August 10th.

Shares have been in a steady uptrend since mid-April. The $14 earnings spike only took a couple days to consolidate and shares are moving up again.

There are no August options so we have to use July and exit well before earnings.

Position 6/6/17:

Long July $60 call @ $2.20, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


VAR - Varian Medical - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news but a minor gain to a new high.

Original Trade Description: May 20th.

Varian Medical Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and services medical devices and software products for treating cancer and other medical conditions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Oncology Systems and Imaging Components. The Oncology Systems segment provides hardware and software products for treating cancer with radiotherapy, fixed field intensity-modulated radiation therapy, image-guided radiation therapy, volumetric modulated arc therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, stereotactic body radiotherapy, and brachytherapy. Its products include linear accelerators, brachytherapy afterloaders, treatment simulation, verification equipment, and accessories; and information management, treatment planning, image processing, clinical knowledge exchange, patient care management, decision-making support, and practice management software. This segment serves university research and community hospitals, private and governmental institutions, healthcare agencies, physicians' offices, oncology practices, radiotherapy centers, and cancer care clinics. The Imaging Components segment offers X-ray imaging components for use in radiographic or fluoroscopic imaging, mammography, special procedures, computed tomography, computer aided diagnostics, and industrial applications. It also provides Linatron X-ray accelerators, imaging processing software, and image detection products for security and inspection purposes. This segment serves original equipment manufacturers, independent service companies, and end-users. In addition, the company offers products and systems for delivering proton therapy; and develops technologies in the areas of digital X-ray imaging, volumetric and functional imaging, and improved X-ray sources. The company was formerly known as Varian Associates, Inc. and changed its name to Varian Medical Systems, Inc. in April 1999. Varian Medical Systems, Inc. was founded in 1948. Company description from FinViz.com.

Drugs are not the only opportunity to rid yourself of a terrible disease. Varian produces multiple products for discovering and targeting cancer. They are the sector leader in imaging and radiation therapy.

Varian reported earnings of 89 cents that beat estimates for 88 cents. Revenue of $655 million beat estimates for $643 million. They guided for ful lyear earnings of $3.56-$3.64 per share.

Earnings July 26th.

On May 6th, the company announced a "game-changing treatment platform" to combat the cancer challenge. (their words) The new Halcyon system is an entirely new device that "simplifies and enhances virtually every aspect of image-guided volumetric intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). This new treatment system is designed to expand the availability of high quality cancer care globally and help save the lives of millions more cancer patients." The new system requires only 9 steps compared with the 30 treatment steps required by current generation equipment. "Halcyon is well suited to handle the majority of cancer patients, offering advanced treatments for prostate, breast, head & neck, and many other forms of cancer." Press Release

The company demonstrated the new device to packed crowds at the ESTRO 36 conference in Vienna on May 8th. Shares spiked $4 on the announcement.

ASCO is about cancer treatment and the conference begins on June 2nd for four days. While the drug community will be getting plenty of press, the Varian equipment should also be benefitting from the headlines.

The market decline knocked $2 off Varian shares and gave us a buying opportunity.

Update 5/24/17: Varian announced it was going to install its first Proton Therapy System in Thailand. The first one in a country is always the hardest. The order will be booked in this quarter's earnings. Shares rallied to close right on resistance at $96.75 but a breakout is imminent.

Update 5/25/17: Varian will be hosting multiple events at the ISRS meeting in Switzerland from May 28th - June 1st. They will be demonstrating their leading edge radiosurgery systems for cancer treatment.

Update 6/5/17: Varian announced it has joined a partnership to develop radiotherapy centers in Vietnam. This will eventually mean the deployment of multiple installations in Vietnam.

Position 5/22/17:

Long August $100 call @ $2.00, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.


$VIX - Volatility Index - Index Description

Comments:

The VIX posted a minor gain in a weak market. Traders may be getting worried about Thursday.

The June 2nd close at 9.75 was the lowest close since December 1993.

This is a July call. We have plenty of time and the odds of a market sell off over the next 2 months are close to 100%. The VIX cannot go much lower but it can go a lot higher.

While holding the VIX call is an insurance play for us, I hope we are never in a position to profit from it. That would mean a lot of our long positions would be under water or stopped out.

Original Trade Description: Jan 26th

The VIX is a computed index, much like the S&P 500 itself, although it is not derived based on stock prices. Instead, it uses the price of options on the S&P 500, and then estimates how volatile those options will be between the current date and the option's expiration date. The CBOE combines the price of multiple options and derives an aggregate value of volatility, which the index tracks.

The VIX closed at 10.63 and very close to record lows. You have to go back to June of 2014 for a lower recent close at 10.28. Before that, you have to travel back in time to Feb-2007 for a close at 10.05. The next lowest close was 9.48 in Dec-1993.

The point here is that volatility is near record lows only reached four times in the last 23 years. That qualifies for an abnormal event. I believe it is time we bought some VIX calls. The odds of the VIX remaining this low for the next two months are about as close to zero as you can get.

There is a very old saying in the market. "When the VIX is high, it is time to buy. When the VIX is low, it is time to go." You cannot get much lower than this.

The VIX is telling us that everyone expects the market to continue moving higher. Nobody is worried that some unexpected headline or event is going to trigger a significant market decline. When nobody expects an event is when we should be the most concerned.

Update 5/1/17: The VIX made a new intraday low at 9.90 and closed at a 10-yr low at 10.11. The government shutdown has been avoided according to reports out of Washington and that helped to deflate the VIX. Marine Le Pen is rapidly gaining on Macron in the French election runoff for next Sunday. She gained 6 points in two days to 41% in the recent polls compared to Macron's 59%. If she can gain another 6% early this week then the entire event risk scenario comes back into play with a potential come from behind win.

Position 3/30/117
Long July $14 call @ $2.55, no stop loss.
Added 5/9/17: Long July $14 call @ $1.60, no stop loss.
Average cost now $2.07.

Previously Closed 2/1/17: Long March $12 call @ $2.60, exit $2.50, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 2/22/17: Long March $12 call @ $1.75 adj, exit $1.65, -.10 loss.
Previously Closed 4/10/17: Long Apr $13 call @ $2.30, exit $1.80, -.55 loss.



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