Market Summary
At this time last week we published our initial December SPY put spread. Unfortunately stock prices gapped up the following morning and the recommended trade was not available. The recent market pullback has presented another potential opportunity to make this play. If stock prices recover tomorrow then we will probably have to back off again and re-evaluate. There is no need to force a trade, especially since if we have problems finding an acceptable trade for the regular December expiration we can take a look at December quarterlies that expire at month-end.

SPY ETF Trade Setup
We are opening a December expiration month SPY Bull Put spread
SPY closed at $118.45 on Tuesday (25 days to December expiration)
SPY is priced BELOW its current 14-day EMA (see SPY chart down below)
SPY is BELOW with its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA (see SPY chart)
SPY is trading ABOVE its 50-day simple moving average (see SPY chart)
SPY is ABOVE its 200-day simple moving average (see SPY chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is neutral (See SPY chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is turning bearish (See SPY chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 12.68%, Implied Volatility is 17.23% both numbers are near the bottom of their 52-week range – which is considered a bullish sign
Upper range standard deviation is .84162, the lower range is -.84162
Use the number of days to expiration, volatility number and the standard deviation to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

We want the SPY Bull Put short strike to be below defined support levels :
$116 calculated based on previous intraday lows and technical support levels
$113 equals the lower price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$117 is the lower level of the Bollinger Band – lower solid purple line in the SPY chart below

We want the SPY put spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit AND we prefer that the short strikes fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the December expiration option series Bull Put Spread (based on Tuesday's closing prices). The recommendation is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.5450
Total Option Premium Received $1,090 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $8,910
Margin Requirement $10,000
20 contracts traded (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
The rules for exiting the December expiration SPY bull put credit spread is:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on the short strike, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If the short strike is penetrated (closing price below the short call) AND after market close, if the delta associated with the short strike is .65 or higher, we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price.

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.