DIA ETF Trade Setup
We are opening a February expiration month DIA Bull Put Spread
DIA closed at $118.60 on Monday (19 days to February expiration)
DIA is priced ABOVE its current 14-day EMA (see DIA chart down below)
DIA is trading ABOVE its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA, and 50-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
DIA is still well ABOVE its 200-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is neutral (See DIA chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is neutral (See DIA chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 6.66%, Implied Volatility is 13.93% - both numbers are near 52-week lows- this considered a bullish sign
Upper range standard deviation is .84162, the lower range is -.84162
Use the number of days to expiration, volatility number and the standard deviation to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

The Bull Put spread short strike price should be below defined support levels :
$116.00 calculated based on previous intraday lows and technical support levels
$115.75 equals the lower price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$115.50 is the lower Bollinger Band level – Lower solid purple line in the DIA chart below

We want the DIA bull put spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit AND we prefer that the short strikes fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the February expiration month option series DIA put spread (based on Monday's closing prices). The recommendation is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Our normal process for entering a trade is to monitor stock prices the initial hour of trading to see how much the bid/ask spread changed since the night before. If the stocks are flat then we put in a bid to try to get our .50 credit – at this point we have to be willing to accept a little less. However if the market drops then we might be able to get a better deal depending on when during the day the order is entered. Ideally you can identify a support level at a certain point and then do the trade.

Premium Credit $.51
Option Premium Received $1,010 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $7,540 (including premium received from call spread)
Margin Requirement – $1,500 (the margin on the call spread should satisfy most of the margin requirement)
20 contracts traded on each leg (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
The DIA position will be set up as an iron condor after executing the put spread trade above. The decision process for exiting our Iron Condor positions will be:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on one of our short strikes, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If one of our short strikes is penetrated (closing price above our short call or below the short put) AND the delta rises to .65 we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price. Unless this is option expiration week, do not panic and rush to close the trade, many times the market will reverse itself and remove the sense of urgency. If one of our short strikes has been violated and there is no price reversal, we cut our losses and live to fight another day.

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.