DIA ETF Trade Setup
We are opening a March expiration month DIA bull put spread
DIA closed at $121.89 on Tuesday (25 days to March expiration)
DIA is priced right at its current 14-day EMA (see DIA chart down below)
DIA is trading ABOVE its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA, and 50-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
DIA is well ABOVE its 200-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is bullish (See DIA chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is neutral (See DIA chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 8.66%, Implied Volatility is 11.22% - both numbers are near 52-week lows- this considered a bullish sign
Upper range standard deviation is .84162, the lower range is -.84162
Use the number of days to expiration, volatility number and the standard deviation to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

The Bull Put spread short strike price should be below defined support levels :
$118.00 calculated based on previous intraday lows and technical support levels
$118.00 equals the lower price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$118.00 is the lower Bollinger Band level – Lower solid purple line in the DIA chart below

We want the DIA put spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit AND we prefer that the short strikes fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the March expiration month option series DIA bull put spread (based on Tuesday's closing prices). The recommendation is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.51
Total Option Premium Received $1,020 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $10,000
Margin Requirement $10,000
20 contracts traded on each leg (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
As with initiating the trade, the decision process for exiting our DIA bull put spread position will be simple:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on one of our short strikes, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If our short strikes is penetrated (closing price below the short put) AND the delta rises to .65 we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price. Unless this is option expiration week, do not panic and rush to close the trade, many times the market will reverse itself and remove the sense of urgency. If one of our short strikes has been violated and there is no price reversal, we cut our losses and live to fight another day.

Final Comment
Recent Couch Potato articles mentioned how there have been limited opportunities to open a put spread that fit our ordering rules. As seen in the chart above, since the end of last year prices have gone straight up with only a few dips along the way. If the current trend continues then we need to take advantage of the opportunity to do another trade. If prices begin to recover after the market opens tomorrow we should issue a limit order for the minimum credit. However if the market continues to pull back then we may be able to get a better price.

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.