Market Summary
Treasury notes have risen from mid-September lows and stabilized over the past four trading days with yields near the lowest level in four weeks. Traders are bidding up Treasury bonds as yields on benchmark 10-year securities fell in nine of the past 10 sessions. Recent positive economic data suggest the U.S. economy is growing slowly without the threat of rapid acceleration any time soon. Now appears to be an opportune time to set up another Treasury bond trade.

TLT ETF Trade Setup
We are opening an October expiration month 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (TLT) bear call spread – this trade establishes a TLT iron condor position

We want the TLT call spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit on each leg AND we prefer that the short strike fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in the table below complies with our trading rules for initiating the October expiration month option series TLT bear call spread (based on Monday's closing prices). The suggestion is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.56
Total Option Premium Received $1,120 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $7,780 (includes premium received for the October TLT bull put spread)
Margin Requirement $10,000 (this is the same margin used for the bull put spread)
20 contracts traded on each leg (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

If prices gap down tomorrow the call spread may not be available as published and we will hold off on this trade. Conversely if prices rise sharply then we will probably initiate the call spread at a higher strike price with a similar risk profile as described above.

Exit Plan
As with initiating the trade, the decision process for exiting our TLT bear call spread position will be simple:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on one of our short strikes, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If one of our short strikes is penetrated (closing price above our short call) AND the delta rises to .65 we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price. Unless this is option expiration week, do not panic and rush to close the trade, many times the market will reverse itself and remove the sense of urgency. If one of our short strikes has been violated and there is no price reversal, we cut our losses and live to fight another day.

Happy Trading

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.