Investors pause waiting for FOMC announcement later today.
All ears and eyes will be watching for the FOMC announcement, and subsequent press conference by Chairman Yellen at 2:30 this afternoon. Her previous conferences have brought some volatility to the market, so there could be a big move in either direction.
The SPY July Iron Condor remains fairly well centered in the tent, the current position is shown below. There are still 30 days left to expiration, so this position will remain open to ride out the news, as long as it remains within the guidelines.
SPY July Iron Condor
This 6 month SPY chart shows our short strikes:
SPY 6 month Chart:
The plan remains in place to keep the position open as long as SPY stays between the short strikes. The position will be exited at target gain (10%), max loss (15%), or either short strike.
I feel the market might go directional by next week, with the FOMC uncertainty out of the way. The direction of the move is the big question in my mind. Headlines are still coming out over the situation in Iraq, so that is another unknown factor. Jim Brown posted an interesting statistic in his Market Wrap last evening: "Unfortunately, the week after the June expiration has been down for 21 of the last 25 years. While it may or may not happen again in 2014 we should plan accordingly."
In my opinion, this is a time for weekly directional traders to practice patience; the credit spread trades will resume when I feel it is a better time to jump back in. I am waiting for a clearer market direction before risking capital in a short term position.
I will, however, be entering the SPX Weekly Iron Condor test position once again. I am not recommending it as a live trade; I will be trading it in Paper Money at least one more week. The results thus far have been positive, 3 trades and all closed for a gain. Depending on the results of this next trade, I may be ready to recommend this as a live trade for those of you who may prefer Iron Condors over a purely directional credit spread. Many times the market reverses the day following an FOMC announcement, so I will likely wait until Friday to enter the Iron Condor for the June 4 cycle.
Trade entry details will be posted when the position is opened.
As always, trade carefully and stay keen on your risk management,