Geopolitical news from Argentina, Portugal, and Russia sent investors running for cover Thursday.
Yesterday was what I call an ugly day in the market; the sharp decline began before the open and kept going right until the close. SPX dove through support to close -2% at 1930.67.
SPX 6 month chart
The VIX, or "fear factor" chart is just as dramatic; the spike at one point was 27%; and it closed just below that at 16.95.
VIX 6 month chart
As of this writing, ES futures are down once again, about 12 points, almost a one-day standard deviation. Today brings some major economic news:
8:30 am Non Farms Payroll ("the" event of the week)
8:30 am Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Index
For those of you who follow the Couch Potato newsletter, you know how difficult it is for me as a full time trader to sit on the sidelines. However, as I have said before, there are times when I feel it's best to keep cash as my position rather than risk a big loss. This is one of those weeks; so I am not recommending a new weekly trade entry today for the August 2 cycle. Some more aggressive traders may choose to dip their toes into the water, but I do not want to take the weekend risk with a short term position such as the weekly Iron Condor.
I will let this turmoil settle before I risk live capital in a new position. Depending on how the market closes today, there is always the possibility of a Monday entry for the Iron Condor, if there is still sufficient credit. I will post my thoughts on this over the weekend, but in closing I will say that I am more comfortable right now in my cash position over the weekend.
As always, stay keen on your risk management and trade carefully,