MY MAILBAG:

"... and do you think we bottomed last week at 3300 in nasdaq?"

MY RESPONSE:

I'd say it's about 50/50 that the market bottomed versus another shot to a lower low.

In bearish corrections when commodities markets like oil or gold, (especially if prices have climbed for weeks/months) experience a sell off, followed by a rebound as buyers go bargain hunting, followed by a second decline, it's fairly common that the second downswing comes out to being equal to a first decline. The term measured move refers to when each of two down legs are approximately equal.

Somewhat more often with the major stock indexes and with stocks themselves, a second down leg of a down-up-down or 'a-b-c' correction measures out to something equaling 1.5 (150%) times the point distance of the first decline.

What this longer second 'leg' pattern suggests is that IF 1560, the apparent or possible end of down leg 'c' for the S&P 500 (SPX) (see my first chart) is exceeded on a further decline, I will assume that as the first decline was 90 points, the second sell off might end up being (90 X 1.5) 135 points lower than the 1654 top at point 'b'; e.g., in such a case we might see a possible lower next low (below 1560) at around 1520. 1500 is major support.

We see in the correction to date in the Dow 30 (INDU) per my next chart, a first INDU decline of around 700 points ended at point 'a'. IF there's a decisive downside penetration of 14550 (the current to date low at point 'c') this could suggest a decline of more like a thousand points 1050 (1.5 X 700) below the 15340 rally peak, possibly carrying INDU to a lower low around 14,320.

And last but not least, in the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) again the two down legs ending at points 'a' and 'c' were approximately equal and the second is said to have achieved a 'measured move', or a second equal downleg. IF instead, the recent 3295 low in COMP gives way or is pierced by some margin, I'd expand my expectations for a 'final' low of down leg 'c' as being around 230 points below the 3488 rally high or to the 3258 area.


GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!