MY MAILBAG:

"... im not sure about this rally. Time to get back in bullish? "

RESPONSE:

I wrote my last Trader's article when I thought it was 50/50 that the S&P 500 (SPX), still the benchmark for this Market, had made a 'final' bottom, at least for the correction ending 6/24, at its intraday low of 1560.

The pattern that suggested 1560 could be the bottom for the correction that began dating from the late-May peak, was that the second down leg (from 1654 to 1560) at 94 didn't extend much beyond the first sell off from a 1687 peak to 1598 low at 89 S&P points. Such a measured move objective in the second decline suggests that selling hadn't increased much. This aspect of the chart plus the 'fully' oversold 13-day RSI low (a relatively rare occurrence in a bull market) strongly suggested at least an interim bottom.

The trend since that low has been strong enough for long enough to finally bring the S&P back into its uptrend channel as is highlighted below. The S&P 500 Index is again selling at a price that maintains the same rate of price increase that it had dating from its November bottom. SPX trading back above sometimes tough resistance implied by previously broken up trendline suggests that the bull is back.

Looking at the weekly and especially monthly S&P chart keeps the recent downdraft in perspective.

On a weekly chart basis this last decline looked at most like a minor blip and dip below 1600. Ahead there's some potential resistance around 1670, but given the strong multiyear bull trend, upside targets to 1800 or more can be imagined. The chart I need to look at when I get tempted to get into much of a bearish mood is the monthly chart that follows this one.

While I am still using an arithmetic scale on this very long-term chart dating from 1995 (it's not quite the same pattern on a 'log' chart), the recent strong 'breakout' move above the massive 2000-2007 double top seen below is still very bullish on a multiyear chart basis.


GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!