MY MAILBAG:

"how do you see outcome of the market trading back and forth over the past week and half? "

RESPONSE:

I was anticipating that prices would trend sideways to lower for a time. However, the near-term trend has been more sideways than lower, especially in the case of the S&P and Dow. The Nasdaq was showing initial attempts to break out of its range to the upside.

On balance, the major indexes have been trading in a fairly narrow range over since mid-month. A good way to view a representative sample of the major stock indexes is using hourly charts.

The S&P 500 (SPX) 60-minute chart is seen below and from the 1560 June low just to 1680, the low end of SPX's recent trading range, there's a gain of nearly 8%; a strong move in that amount of time. After a strong advance such as seen here, the sideways move from roughly 1700 at the top end to around 1680 on the low, presents a very narrow trading range.

As long as prices hold within the price range, the odds in this kind of sideways pattern favors a resumption of the dominant trend, up in this case. The key event is what happens in the 1700 area, which is the upside 'breakout' point. A decisive upside move through and above 1700 would suggest another up leg was underway. Conversely, a daily Close below 1680 would suggest otherwise.

The relatively narrow price range over the past 8-9 day period in the Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) has been between 15600 on the upside and 15400 on the downside. While, there's no decisive upside or downside breakout yet of this narrow price range, the repeated rallies to apparent resistance, is showing a buoyant market as buying continues on dips. Nothing yet enough to lift the Dow into a breakout move and another up leg, but the pattern here most often suggests consolidation before a move still higher.

After the prolonged advance from late-June, the fact that the Average has had only a relatively minor pullback, with limited to little follow through selling, suggests a consolidation pattern rather than a reversal type pattern as would be the case if INDU was building a top.

The Nasdaq big cap 100 (NDX) has lifted the upside 'line' of its price range by the NDX advance to the 3100 area. Still, while the Nas 100 has expanded its upside 'range' the index still appears to be in a range-bound trade; it's just a little wider than before.

An upside breakout move is the favored outcome suggested by the narrow-range sideways consolidation after the prior strong advance dating from the late-June lows. Stay tuned on that!


GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!