11:10:26 PM EDT |
Market Monthly/Yearly Technical Review
A strong year (S&P 500: +11.4%) finished on a mixed note as the major Indices were down a fraction of a percent in December. This bull market is 70 months old and, at 5 yrs,9 mos duration, is a 'senior' among the last 3 bull markets.
11:10:57 PM EDT |
Classic 'bottoming' Action Using 'classical' Technical Analysis
There were a number of elements that came together to suggest that a bottom was put in around recent lows had you just been using technical analysis tools. Using good analysis of lower gas costs versus oil stocks declining, money saved wins.
11:39:53 PM EDT |
Stock Indexes Monthly Technical Review
November saw the best monthly gains since August, with the S&P 500 up 49 points (+2.4%), the Dow up 438 points (+2.5%) and the Nasdaq Composite up 161 points (+3.5%). On a 2-year basis all are now overbought and at the top ('resistance') end of uptrend channels.
4:28:54 PM EDT |
Using Moving Average Envelopes To Project Lows and Highs
In the major stock indexes, use of 21-day Moving Average Envelopes can be used to project 'normal' OR expanded, price swings.
9:51:34 PM EDT |
Panic Sell Offs Do End; They Just Seem Like They WON'T!
'Waterfall' declines are driven by fear, panic and are exacerbated by computerized trading but they do come to an end. Measuring tools for where the Market is REALLY extended or at 'extreme' can give some guidance.
7:55:10 PM EDT |
Retracement Levels as Potential Support
Relative to our recent decline I explore the current downside retracement levels. The suggested trading concepts involved are the same whether a retracement measures a downside (low to high) or upside (high to low) retracement.
9:12:37 PM EDT |
September Month End Technical Review
Continuing a pattern of recent months where an up month is followed by a decline, September saw losses for month ranging from -.008% in the Nasdaq 100 to -.015% in the S&P 500. This is a minor 'correction' no doubt but you'd think it was a bear market if listening to some day to day comments on price action!
10:09:31 PM EDT |
Bullish-Bearish 'Sentiment' Models
Measuring market opinion or outlook is sort of a third way of technical analysis along with using price and volume information. It's also the 'third rail' of a technical approach in that it's easy to get burned when you use bullish-bearish extremes to trade on.
11:44:25 PM EDT |
I pay attention to where prices are in relation to an uptrend (or downtrend) price channel. Price channels aren't the only thing in chart patterns, but can be quite useful in seeing support or resistance areas.
10:37:44 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review
In a reversal of fortunes, August saw monthly gains ranging from +3.2% in the Dow, +3.7% in the S&P 500 and +4.8% in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nas 100. Dow Theory continues to see both Averages in sync as the primary bull Market rolls on.
10:57:12 PM EDT |
'Milestone' Price Levels; Linear Versus 'Semi-Log' Price Scales
Moving through a milestone price level suggests the next 'milestone' may be seen. An example is the Nasdaq 100 having now crossed above 4000, setting up a possible longer-term objective to 5000.
11:44:54 PM EDT |
How Technical Analysts Can Get It Wrong
During the sell off after the late-July Peak, some technically oriented traders and advisers were suggesting that we were headed into a bear market. I treat such bold indicator based predictions with caution.
11:54:06 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review
A bearish end to the month as the S&P 500 in July reversed decisively from pivotal resistance just under 2000, the Dow traced out a key monthly downside reversal and the most watched tech Index, the Nas 100 (NDX), reversed lower after an apparent break out above its broad monthly uptrend channel.
11:52:12 PM EDT |
Favorable Risk to Upside Reward in the Current Market
You have bullish positions but the risk of a top has grown. You don't need to surrender your conviction, just step aside and let the trend resolve or reassert itself.
11:46:15 PM EDT |
'Rotational' Corrections; and Setting Trade Objectives
The broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite met my upside objectives, and traced out topping patterns, not yet seen in the big cap OEX, INDU and NDX indices. Rotational Market corrections aren't uniform.
9:59:05 PM EDT |
Recent key downside reversals; Monthly technical review
More on last week's key downside reversal pattern: so far suggesting a stumble not a pullback. June sees the S&P and Nasdaq in strong monthly Closes.
11:40:36 PM EDT |
'Key' Downside Reversals
I was seeing bearish leaning technical indicators ahead of the current week's trading that were suggesting possible downside price action ahead. That came today with key downside reversals.
12:11:13 AM EDT |
Trade Ideas From Price 'Gaps'; Month End Chart Review
Price gaps from one day to the next can suggest certain objectives in Stocks and Indices. May and Year To Date gains in the S&P and Nasdaq are less than 1 percent.
9:14:23 PM EDT |
More on Upside Objectives Suggested by 'Rectangle' Patterns
I assumed that the S&P would break out to the upside given its prior lateral trend, a Rectangle formation. A measured move objective was a different way to project a next rally target in Nasdaq.
11:20:53 PM EDT |
'Rotational' Market corrections and Rectangle Patterns
Rotational type corrections have occurred in recent weeks as high flying Tech has come down and the S&P/Dow has trended more sideways. Sideways trends (rectangle patterns) within major uptrends are assumed to be bullish consolidations.
9:28:57 PM EDT |
Technical/Chart Review: April. Focus Ahead to May
April closes with the S&P 500 up a fraction from its March Close, versus Nasdaq off a bit by 2 tenths of 1 percent (-0.2%). S&P is on the move to a potential breakout, Nasdaq is base building.
10:20:27 PM EDT |
Key Retracements Used To Forecast Trend Reversals
The S&P indices recently saw 50% Fibonacci retracements before rallying strongly and the Nasdaq retraced exactly 100% of its prior advance and formed a likely double bottom.
6:51:07 PM EDT |
Surprises or Not With 'Rounding Tops' and 'Retracements'; Part 2
A recent Nasdaq rounding top pattern outcome. Analysis of retracement levels and there value in predicting possible trend reversals.
6:04:57 PM EDT |
Surprises or Not With 'Rounding Tops' and 'Retracements'; Part 1
The Rounding Top pattern is quite reliable in suggesting some further downside but, surprise, most of the time prices rise after it completes. Retracements of prior trends are less surprising in how they often unfold.
11:59:38 PM EDT |
'The Trend is Your Friend' and Trendlines A Best Friend!
I check how I've drawn my trendlines weekly at least to see if I need to revise them. Trendlines require frequent adjustment and it probably drives some traders to distraction or not to bother.
9:28:10 PM EDT |
Retracement 'Rules' That Suggest Reversals
There are rules of thumb for the major indexes in estimating where pullback lows might occur in a bull market trend. Also, a note on the current apparent stall in the S&P and Dow.
10:25:57 PM EDT |
Chart Factors Suggesting A Possible Bottom
There are several factors that suggest the end of corrections in a bull market trend: reaching an Up Trendline, coupled with Oversold readings, levels of Retracement and Volume Spikes are among them. A build up of Bearish Sentiment is another but not seen here yet.
11:26:14 PM EDT |
'Time' Corrections and VIX Considerations in Trading
After a prolonged move, up or down and the trend starts going sideways becomes a time, rather than price, correction. Volatility (e.g., VIX) considerations in determining strategy can be important, but isn't necessarily the key trading input.