11:46:54 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review
The major indices rebounded from important monthly support/up trendlines, suggesting intact long-term chart support. The next question is the potential for rallies to upper 'resistance' trendlines.
10:10:12 PM EDT |
Trusting in a Method to Find Tradable Bottoms
Relatively simple chart/technical aspects, including the psychology of low trader bullishness, can pinpoint a likely bottom. Finding tops is a trickier proposition typically, with less inputs.
11:33:26 PM EDT |
'Rectangles' and Other Predictive Chart Patterns
There are only a few chart patterns that are 'proven' predictors of tops or bottoms. Rectangle 'tops' are supposed to be one of them but sideways moves are sometimes tricky as to outcome.
8:13:22 PM EDT |
One Answer to "How Low Can It Go?"
I see price swings a lot in terms of volatility. Already today the Dow 30 came back into its historically 'normal' volatility range, looked at as INDU Closing not more than 5 percent below its 21-day moving average.
11:39:37 PM EDT |
How Low is Low or Where's a Next Bottom?
Panic selling lows tend to, as if by 'magic' sometimes, end at key lower envelope extremes. It's not just 'random' and anything could happen.
10:46:13 PM EDT |
Bottoms After Key Retracements and Dips to Trade 'Envelope' lines
Pivotal percentage pullback retracements ranged from 50 to 62-66 percent this week. In the case of INDU and RUT 100% 'round-turn' retracements that also touched my key lower moving average envelopes.
9:22:24 PM EDT |
Finding Tradable Bottom and Top 'Extremes' with Envelopes
The major stock indexes lend themselves well to using the moving average envelope indicator to help in finding occasional 'extreme' lows or highs often above/below prior bottoms or tops. In conjunction with an oversold/overbought RSI and sentiment extremes, envelopes are 'extremely' underused.
9:26:22 PM EDT |
Month End (June) Technical Review; At or Near a Bottom?
It may be that recent months' weakness in the Dow Transportation Average, relative to the Dow Industrials, is suggesting US economic contraction ahead and could Greece set this off? I'm reminded that WWI started with big trouble in a small country in a corner of Europe.
10:20:42 PM EDT |
Timing a Bottom When Support is Seen At Trendlines
Once most bearish influences are 'priced' into stocks (e.g., Greece and Fed Dread) the Market can find equilibrium. Support demonstrated at up trendlines offers favorable risk to reward for bullish plays.
11:52:56 PM EDT |
More on the Under-performing TRAN; Updates on recent Trade Recs
Subscriber mail discussions on the Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) under-performance and trading recommendations made ahead of this past week.
6:54:19 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review and Dow Theory
There have been Market 'warnings' regarding a lagging Dow Transportation Average relative to INDU. There's no definitive sell 'signal' yet however.
10:34:36 PM EDT |
Judging the Possible End of a Lengthy Sideways Trend
The S&P has been in a sideways trading range for months and strategies effective in a range-bound market 'work' if this pattern was anticipated. Analyzing potential change ahead.
11:44:10 PM EDT |
Month End April Technical Review; More on Apple
Long-term monthly charts show the major indexes hitting resistance at the top end of broad uptrend channels. This occurred on declining upside momentum.
11:47:06 PM EDT |
Apple Not Enough to Push the Dow Much Higher
There used to be a concept of a 'solitary walk of the Dow', where INDU would be in a stand out bull move. Now the same could be said of NDX, with AAPL leading but it won't pull INDU up by much.
11:52:42 PM EDT |
Intraday 'Sentiment' Readings and Trading Range Resolution?
Responses on resolution of the current trading range, taking intraday call-put 'sentiment' readings, and trade patience.
11:39:23 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review; March, 2015
While it looks like the Wild West out there, a monthly chart review shows a fairly normal trend pointing higher. Whippy price action also isn't surprising as prices near or hit the upper end of long-term uptrend channels.
11:30:00 PM EDT |
Forecasting On Chart Patterns Ahead Of 'News'; Chart 'Gaps'
Waiting for bullish or bearish news to 'verify' what comes next in the trend versus predicting from chart patterns using a technical approach. Also, chart gaps in the S&P.
11:48:37 PM EDT |
Retracement Placement Predicts Pivots; + Trading the VIX
Two topics: 1.) How 'common' retracement levels can anticipate trend reversals; 2.) Trading the VIX options.
11:56:18 PM EDT |
Month End Technical Review; February 2015
A short but MIGHTY month! The Nasdaq Composite gained 7% for the month; the Dow was up 5.6% and the S&P 500 closed up 5.5% over January.
11:34:27 PM EDT |
Looking For An Uptrend Pause Or Pullback
In the Indexes, even at new highs, there are nevertheless areas in an advancing trend to look for a pause or pullback suggested by key upper moving average envelope lines, 'overbought' readings and peak levels of bullish sentiment.
11:02:33 PM EDT |
Russell 2000 May No Longer Be In a 'rut' In Weeks Ahead
The Russell 2000 (RUT), which has been in broad sideways trading range for the past 12 months, after a strong 2012-2013 advance, may have substantial upside potential again.
9:10:54 PM EDT |
Trading Volatility with VIX options; Part 2
Instead of perhaps throwing up your hands about trading stock and stock index options in periods of 'whippy' price action (high volatility), go with the flow and take advantage of the situation with possible strategies in VIX options.
11:43:53 PM EDT |
Trading Volatility; Part 1
Volume in Options based on various volatility indices, especially the S&P 500 Volatility Index VIX, has become huge. Time for me to give my take on 'trading volatility'.
6:58:00 PM EDT |
They 'Slide' Faster Than They 'Glide'
An old trader's saying quoted here refers to the tendency for markets to go up slowly/gradually (glide) but to give back a LOT of ground quickly on a pullback (slide). Bottoms can be identified technically but quick trade action may be needed as 'slides' often are over FAST.