Option Investor

Write Your Own 2014
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From the Desk of
Jim Brown


Another Outstanding Year Ahead!

Dear Subscriber,

It seems like just a few weeks ago that I wrote the 2013 EOY description. Analysts were talking about end of year forecasts for the S&P in the 1,650 to 1,850 range. Here we are a year later and the S&P is nearing 2,100.

Analysts are now targeting new highs for 2015. Citibank is predicting 2,200, UBS 2,225, Oppenheimer 2,311 and Piper Jaffray 2,350. In reality we could go a lot higher. Even that optimistic estimate from Piper Jaffray is only 13% above our level today and all the factors seem to be shaping up for a positive year.

The third year in a second presidential term is almost always positive. S&P earnings are at record levels of $128 and expected to be over $130 in 2015. If you assign a PE of 18 to earnings of $130 that would target the S&P at 2,340.

The Fed ended QE3 and the world did not end. Analysts from the major banks are pushing their rate hike expectations from spring 2015 to December and a few are even targeting spring 2016 for the first rate hike. A Federal Reserve in neutral is always positive for the market. However, the Fed is not in neutral. There is still a stealth QE in progress. They have $3.5 trillion in securities they bought in the various QE programs. As these mature they are reinvesting the proceeds back into treasuries. This amounts to about $5 billion a week. The Fed is not broadcasting this fact but investing more than $20 billion a month into treasuries is going to keep rates low for a long time. Abnormally low interest rates are positive for the equity markets. Investors have to invest in equities to get any decent returns.

Janet Yellen is the biggest dove on the FOMC and her vote carries the most weight. The Fed is terrified about acting too early and killing the recovery.

The economies in Europe and Asia are slowing and that makes the U.S. equity markets the favored place for foreign money to wait for the next recovery.

The economy appears to be gaining speed. The GDP in Q2 was +4.55% and +3.9% in Q3. Employment is improving with the last nine months posting job gains over 200,000 per month.

The republicans won control of the Senate in the November elections and that means two more years of gridlock ahead. The president will veto anything congress sends him and the lack of any new job killing regulations is positive for the market.

Acquisitions are increasing and stock buybacks are still going strong. Both of those actions reduce the number of shares in the market while investment dollars continue to grow. This will push the market higher assuming we can avoid a new crisis. More dollars chasing fewer shares always results in higher prices.

While nobody can accurately predict market direction the long term trend is normally up. Obviously you can't benefit from the next market rally if you are not in the market. If you are in the market we hope you will be reading the Option Investor Newsletter for market guidance and winning option plays.

I want to thank everyone for continuing to support the Option Investor family of newsletters. Everyone at Option Investor could not do what we do without your loyalty, support and feedback.

As a thank you for your support we are launching the 16th Annual End of Year Renewal Special. Thanksgiving weekend marks our 17th anniversary! We have no advertising on the website or in the emails. The newsletters are entirely subscription supported.

The Year End Renewal Specials provide our core newsletter products at absolutely the BEST PRICE AVAILABLE to our most valued subscribers.  No one gets a better deal! 

Nearly 50% of our readers take advantage of the annual renewal special each year. The reason is simple we offer our best package of newsletters at the best possible price for the entire year. Nobody gets a better price than the End of Year Subscription special.

2014 EOY Offer Details

I could ramble on for several more pages describing the various benefits of the renewal package but current subscribers already know about our products. If you are not convinced that our newsletter products are worth every penny of the deeply discounted price then a flashy marketing campaign will not help. It may convince a few readers to act but I believe our faithful supporters know what they want and don't need to be talked into clicking submit on some cleverly worded advertisement.

Create Your Own EOY Special!

Instead of just one package that we put together we are giving everyone the opportunity to build their own special. The base package will still be the four main newsletters but you can add any other newsletter you want for half price.

Best Price All Year!

2015 promises to be another exciting and opportunity filled year as we extend the post recession rebound and move into a longer term growth cycle. Make sure you are poised to take advantage of world-class trading advice and analysis with Option Investor.

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Two Option Investor Mouse Pads

If we failed to include these handy desktop calendar mouse pads there would be a mob with torches storming our office. Every date you need to know right at your fingertips!

This custom mouse pad calendar features --

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A Second Way to Save
50% Off Our Other Newsletters

Every year we are always asked if we can discount the other newsletters that are not in the EOY package. This year we are going to include EVERY newsletter in the offering and let you decide which ones you want to purchase at the reduced rate in addition to the regular EOY offer.

You get to build your own EOY special and subscribe to your favorite newsletters at the best price of the year.

Ultimate Investor

All Option Strategies Used, Longer Hold Time Using Special Situation Stocks - In today's volatile market a buy and hold investor is more accurately described as a buy and hope investor. Volatility can be a bad thing for some option traders but it can also present some spectacular opportunities. Volatility can knock you out of carefully crafted positions and produce expensive losses. However, buying certain stocks after a volatility event sometimes produces an outstanding trade. Volatility can come from an earnings miss, a guidance warning, broker downgrade, etc or it can come from a sector event where some other stock in the sector falls off the cliff and drags the sector down with it. Buyouts in the sector, rumors of buyouts or even failed buyouts all produce volatility events that can be used to our advantage. More Info

Couch Potato Newsletter

Are you ready to start trading smart? Have you been trading directionally and losing money? What are you trying to prove? You can generate a healthy cash-flow using our non-directional option strategies and I can teach you how. In the last two years we've more than doubled our money in our posted portfolio -- using these same conservative "hands-off" non-directional strategies. We minimize our risk and put percentages in our favor. More Info

Cash Machine Newsletter

The Monthly Cash Machine is a portfolio of conservative credit- spreads with a target gain of 3-4% per month. There are bullish and bearish recommendations, involving both put and call options, designed to provide consistent profits with minimal capital losses. Based on a portfolio of 10-15 positions, the objective is to earn roughly $2000 profit every 30 days on a minimum (collateral) account balance of $35,000. Our unique selection process strives to identify issues that have a well-established support or resistance areas and a high probability of a remaining within a profitable range. Proprietary software and computer models combine to help take advantage of premium disparities in option pricing, further improving the profit potential in many of the positions. Among the services you can expect are: an online "model" portfolio with current positions and regular updates, weekly E-mails, ongoing strategy discussions, trading tutorials, and links to in-depth research, daily coverage of major market trends and current earnings forecasts. More Info

Oil Slick Newsletter

The OilSlick.com newsletter focuses on plays in the energy sector with both short and long term portfolios. With crude oil playing such an important part in our lives and such a big impact on the market any investor should have an energy component in their portfolio. Peak Oil is not mentioned much in the press today because the decline in the global economy has slowed the growth of oil demand. This will change in the coming months as China and Europe rebound out of their economic weakness and oil demand accelerates. Be prepared for the next move in oil prices with the OilSlick newsletter.



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                                                Thank you again for your support!

                                                Jim Brown and
                                                The Option Investor Team
                                               

P.S.  Please do not forward this email to anyone else.  We are actively selling the same packages to new subscribers for much more.

P.P.S.  If you do not wish to take advantage of this discount offer, do nothing.  Your subscription will continue into 2014 at your current rate. 

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