From the Desk of
2016 has been an amazing year. The Dow declined from 17,750 in December 2015 to 15,450 only three weeks later in January 2016. The spring rebound took us back to 18,000. The Brexit vote in June crashed the markets for two days and knocked -1,000 points off the Dow only to rebound almost immediately to 18,600. While that may sound like a lot of movement those were the only major swings for the entire year until November 9th.
The three months before the election the market was dormant and locked in a tight range with a slightly negative bias. On election night, the Dow futures lost -950 points and the Nasdaq and S&P futures were halted for volatility. All recovered by early morning and the rest is history.
The markets have surged into blue-sky territory with new record highs on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index rose 15 consecutive days for its best performance since 1996.
The investing paradigm has changed. Money is flowing out of bonds and into equities as the Fed prepares to accelerate their rate hike program. Industrials, financials, biotechs, energy and even tech stocks are in rally mode on expectations for an improved economy in 2017.
Investors no longer fear the Fed because growth has returned. Earnings for S&P stocks rose +3.2% for Q3 and the first earnings growth in five quarters. Revenue rose for the first time in six quarters. The outlook for Q4 is strong and for all of 2017 earnings are expected to rise between 11% and 14%.
If Trump were actually able to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% as promised that would add another 10% to S&P earnings. Goldman Sachs believes that could happen by midyear.
The markets are poised on what could be a monumental year for equities. While nothing is ever guaranteed, even a 12% jump in S&P earnings would energize the market but a 22% jump would set it on fire. For 2017, everyone needs to be focused on what is sure to be a series of rapid events that could change the outlook for the entire year.
Trump has promised a 10% repatriation tax to allow the more than $2 trillion in cash that is locked overseas to return home and be put to work for investors. This will cause a surge in acquisitions, stock buybacks and dividends and a rise in the markets.
While nobody can accurately predict market direction, the long-term trend is normally up. Obviously, you cannot benefit from the next market rally if you are not in the market. If you are in the market, we hope you will be reading the Option Investor Newsletter for market guidance and winning option plays.
I want to thank everyone for continuing to support the Option Investor family of newsletters. Everyone at Option Investor could not do what we do without your loyalty, support and feedback.
As a thank you for your support we are launching the 18th Annual End of Year Renewal Special. Thanksgiving weekend marks our 19th anniversary! We have no advertising on the website or in the emails. The newsletters are entirely subscription supported.
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Nearly 50% of our readers take advantage of the annual renewal special each year. The reason is simple we offer our best package of newsletters at the best possible price for the entire year. Nobody gets a better price than the End of Year Subscription special.
2016 EOY Offer Details
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We are including these four eBooks at no additional charge.
Charting Made Easy - John Murphy
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50 Stock Market Rules - Michael Sheimo
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All Option Strategies Used, Longer Hold Time Using Special Situation Stocks - In today's volatile market a buy and hold investor is more accurately described as a buy and hope investor. Volatility can be a bad thing for some option traders but it can also present some spectacular opportunities. Volatility can knock you out of carefully crafted positions and produce expensive losses. However, buying certain stocks after a volatility event sometimes produces an outstanding trade. Volatility can come from an earnings miss, a guidance warning, broker downgrade, etc or it can come from a sector event where some other stock in the sector falls off the cliff and drags the sector down with it. Buyouts in the sector, rumors of buyouts or even failed buyouts all produce volatility events that can be used to our advantage. More Info
Are you ready to start trading smart? Have you been trading directionally and losing money? What are you trying to prove? You can generate a healthy cash-flow using our non-directional option strategies and I can teach you how. In the last two years we've more than doubled our money in our posted portfolio -- using these same conservative "hands-off" non-directional strategies. We minimize our risk and put percentages in our favor. More Info
The OilSlick.com newsletter focuses on plays in the energy sector with both short and long term portfolios. With crude oil playing such an important part in our lives and such a big impact on the market any investor should have an energy component in their portfolio. Peak Oil is not mentioned much in the press today because the decline in the global economy has slowed the growth of oil demand. This will change in the coming months as China and Europe rebound out of their economic weakness and oil demand accelerates. Be prepared for the next move in oil prices with the OilSlick newsletter.
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