On Sunday, the FBI said it was not going to change its position on Clinton's emails and the S&P futures spiked 30 points.
Only a week after FBI Director Comey said they were reopening the investigation into the Clinton emails because of new evidence found on Anthony Weiner's laptop, the director said there was nothing new and the original determination not to charge Clinton would stand. Right or wrong on his decision, it was the all clear signal for the market and probably the push Clinton needed to put her over the top and give her the presidency. The market celebrated and Monday is likely to see a monster short squeeze.
The market has wanted a Clinton victory all along as long as the republicans retained control of the house and senate. That would guarantee gridlock and a continuation of the status quo for at least another two years.
The FBI announcement on Sunday removed a significant amount of election uncertainty. However, the election is not over until it is over. With dozens of cases of voter fraud already reported and WikiLeaks and Anonymous both warning of bombshells that will drop on Monday along with threats of possible al Qaeda attacks in three states and Homeland Security warnings of possible cyber attacks designed to disrupt voting, the election is a long way from over.
If all of these events fail to occur, Clinton wins and Trump concedes, the rest of the week could see a powerful rally.
However, while it appears on Sunday night that Clinton will win, I would like to remind everyone about Brexit. The day before the vote, the "remain" vote was seen to be ahead by 3% to 5% and yet the votes to exit the EU won the day. The markets were up strong with the S&P closing at 2,113 the night before. Over the next two days, the S&P fell -122 points to 1,991. If Trump pulls out a surprise victory, we could see an identical post election crash.
Multiple brokers including Citigroup have warned of a 5% or greater market decline on a Trump victory.
Analyzing the markets today is a waste of time. How the market reacts to events over the next week will relate purely to those events rather than any technical lines on the charts.
The S&P closed just above the 200-day average on Friday but it will open well over 2,100 on Monday if the futures hold overnight. Because of the recent Brexit dip history, there is the potential for the rebound to fade ahead of the election.
The Dow had just moved below its last support point on Friday and with the futures up +225 it could spike as high as 18,200 if a large short squeeze appears. The key to direction is still the actual vote on Tuesday.
The Nasdaq was well below recent support at 5,100. The futures are up +75 on Sunday night, which would put it well above that prior support at 5,100.
The economic calendar is very bland for the week with the election the only market-moving event.
I am so ready for this election to be over. The market bias has been negative for the last four weeks and our portfolio has suffered the death by a thousand cuts as sector after sector broke down under the relentless selling. The volume was light until last week but it increased significantly ahead of the election. With tens of billions moving into the safety of cash there was no material support.
Once the election is over that money will begin to itch and investors will be looking to put it to work. The next six weeks could be strong but the next three days could be extremely volatile.
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