CEO $81.75 Cnooc Ltd
CNOOC is rapidly acquiring new reserves and moving to develop them quickly. Interim results for 2006 showed a +47% jump in revenues with oil production rising +7.4% to 81.7 BOE. As a subsidiary of a national oil company they have the right to acquire a 51% interest in any discovery in China's offshore waters. Essentially if Jim Brown Oil Company acquired a lease from China to drill offshore and I found oil, Cnooc Ltd has the right to acquire 51% of my discovery. As investors in Cnooc I feel like we are betting with the house. Any discovery by anybody in the area becomes our discovery as well.
I am not adding an insurance put due to the cheap option price of our call. If you want to add one personally the Dec $70 put is 75 cents with strong support at $73.50.
CNOOC Limited is a producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas and an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. It mainly engages in oil and natural gas exploration, development, production and sales. The Company has four major oil production areas offshore China, which are Bohai Bay, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea. It is an offshore oil producer in Indonesia. The Company also has certain upstream assets in regions, such as Africa and Australia. As of December 31, 2005, it owned net proved reserves of approximately 2.36 billion barrels-of-oil equivalent (BOE) and its annual average net production was 424,108 barrels-of-oil equivalent per day (BOEPD).
CEO does not have LEAPS.
Breakdown target: $80 triggered 9/11
Position: March $90 Call CEO-CS @ $2.40
SU $67.36 Suncor Energy
Suncor has taken a hit from the fall of oil prices despite being a very low cost oil sands producer. Suncor is planning on doubling their output over the next couple of years and you can bet it will be worth more than $63 a bbl. Options are expensive but this company has no geopolitical risk and massive reserves for decades into the future.
Jan $60 puts are $2.65 while Dec $60 are only $2.10. I hate to spend that much money in either case but we do have a $14 LEAP. The Dec put is 90 days out and that should be enough to get us past any rough spots.
Buy Dec $60 Put SU-XL currently $2.10, no stop
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor), formerly Suncor Inc., is a Canadian integrated energy company that explores for, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas, transports and refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products. Periodically, the Company also markets third-party petroleum products. Suncor also carries on energy trading activities focused principally on buying and selling futures contracts and other derivative instruments, based on the commodities the Company produces. The Company has four principal operating business units: Oil Sands; Natural Gas; Energy Marketing and Refining, Canada, and Refining and Marketing. During the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company produced approximately 206,100 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, comprised of 174,500 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and natural gas liquids and 190 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) of natural gas.
Breakdown target: $70 (triggered 9/11)
Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYX-AP @ $14.30
SLB $56.28 Schlumberger
SLB should benefit from the massive amount of drilling underway and new projects currently on the boards. New discoveries are being made almost daily and rig counts are climbing each week. SLB is worldwide and is expanding its business in the Middle East.
Buy Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ currently $2.00, no stop
Schlumberger Limited (Schlumberger) is an oilfield services company, supplying technology, project management and information solutions. Schlumberger consists of two business segments: Schlumberger Oilfield Services and WesternGeco. Schlumberger Oilfield Services is an oilfield services company supplying a range of technology services and solutions to the international oil and gas industry. WesternGeco, 70% owned by Schlumberger and 30% owned by Baker Hughes, is an advanced surface seismic company.
SLB has decent support at $60 and again at $55. SLB said business was booming in its July earnings release and yet it still sold off. I targeted $57 for an initial position based on the July dip. June's support at $55 held filling $55 as our secondary target.
target: $57 - 1/2 position @ $8.60 (9/11)
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
NBR $30.04 Nabors Industries
Nabors was a strong presenter at the recent energy conference as per the comments below. Support is $30 and the LEAP is cheap. We are not going to buy insurance because this company is so undervalued it is ridiculous. Once the herd catches on we will be wishing we had a larger position.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (Nabors) is a land drilling contractor with almost 600 land drilling rigs. The Company conducts oil, gas and geothermal land drilling operations in the United States Lower 48 states, Alaska, Canada, South and Central America, the Middle East, the Far East and Africa. It is also one of the land well servicing and workover contractors in the United States and Canada. The Company owns approximately 565-land workover and well-servicing rigs in the United States, primarily in the Southwestern and Western United States, and approximately 215-land workover and well-servicing rigs in Canada. Nabors is a provider of offshore platform workover and drilling rigs, and owns 43 platform, 19 jack-up units and three barge rigs in the United States and multiple international markets.
Nabors said they are not seeing any weakness in rig pricing and have more than 100 new rigs on order. They said day rates were still climbing and the international and offshore business was strong enough to contract for terms long enough to recover 100% of the rig costs in most instances. With the strong emphasis on gas drilling rig backlogs for deep rigs were up to three years in some cases.
Link to recent presentation: http://tinyurl.com/o5jmy
Support is $30 post reorganization. I am willing to buy a cheap 2009 LEAP and forget it.
Breakdown target: $30 - triggered 9/12
Tradestation Chart of NBR
UPL $44.47 Ultra Petroleum
As far as I am concerned Ultra is the premier gas producer in the US. There may be larger companies but after listening to two annual presentations I don't believe anybody does it any better. They have a premier location in the Pindale Anticline and Jonah Field with more than 11,000 drilling locations already mapped out. There is pipeline to the field and they have 3-5 TCF of recoverable gas in the ground with more reserves highly probable.
They have hedged nearly all their production but retained upside capability. They will be mostly immune from the current gas price implosion but they will be painted by the same broad brush as the rest of the gas crowd. For that reason we will take out an insurance policy.
Buy Dec $40 Put UPL-MH currently $2.85 (I expect this to double)
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (Ultra) is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused primarily in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. As of December 31, 2005, Ultra owned interests in approximately 148,007 gross acres in Wyoming covering approximately 230 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 330 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 53% of the 330 gross wells. Its domestic operations are focused on developing and expanding a tight gas sand project located in the Green River Basin in southwest Wyoming. During the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company's Wyoming production was approximately 87.4% of total oil and natural gas production on a thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (MCFE) basis and 98.5% of the Company's estimated net proved reserves were in Wyoming on an MCFE basis.
Link to their recent conference presentation:
Breakdown target: $45.00 - Entered on 9/12 update
Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $10.60
SUN $61.79 Sunoco
Sunoco is a strong refiner and marketer and includes many products not sold by other refiners. SUN is strongly profitable and will continue to outperform. However, as a refiner it is susceptible to the volatility in oil prices. Once past this current volatility I expect SUN to eventually make new highs well before our 2009 LEAP matures.
Buy Jan $55 Put SUN-MK currently $2.40 I expect it to double
Sunoco, Inc. (Sunoco), operates through its subsidiaries, as a petroleum refiner and marketer, and chemicals manufacturer with interests in logistics and cokemaking. The Company's petroleum refining and marketing operations include the manufacturing and marketing of a range of petroleum products, including fuels, lubricants and petrochemicals. Sunoco's chemical operations include the manufacturing, distribution and marketing of commodity and intermediate petrochemicals. The petroleum refining and marketing, and chemicals and logistics operations are conducted principally in the eastern half of the United States. Sunoco's cokemaking operations are conducted in Virginia, Indiana and Ohio. The Company operates in five business segments: Refining and Supply, Retail Marketing, Chemicals, Logistics and Coke.
Breakdown target: $62 Entered on 9/12 update
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
PXP $39.80 Plains Exploration
We entered 1/2 position in the 9/12 update and we are still waiting for a touch of $37 to enter the second half. PXP has a decent chart compared to the other oil companies. It recently sold off non-core assets to concentrate on its high probability production areas. I expect it to rebound quickly once oil finds a bottom.
Options are cheap so I am really reaching out on the insurance to Feb-2007. This should provide a really strong comfort factor.
Insurance Put: Buy Feb $35 Put PXP-NG currently $1.55
Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP) is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the activities of acquiring, developing, exploiting, exploring and producing oil and gas properties in the United States. The Company owns oil and gas properties in six states with principal operations: the Los Angeles (LA) and San Joaquin Basins onshore California; the Santa Maria Basin offshore California; the Gulf Coast Basin onshore and offshore Louisiana, including the Gulf of Mexico, and the Val Verde portion of the greater Permian Basin in Texas. In April 2005, PXP acquired California producing oil and gas properties from a private company. In September 2005, the Company acquired Point Arguello Unit, Rocky Point development project and related facilities, offshore California, from subsidiaries of Chevron U.S.A. Inc. In May 2005, the Company closed the sale to XTO Energy, Inc. of interests in producing properties located in East Texas and Oklahoma.
Entered on 9/12: 1/2 position
Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZXL-AJ @ 7.50
FST $30.00 Forest Oil
This is one of my favorite companies after listening to their presentation at the recent energy conference. Everything they said made sense and the stock appears to be a bargain price. Forest recently sold their offshore assets and distributed the assets to shareholders knocking $20 off the price with the special dividend. They consolidated all their efforts on the North American continent in productive fields with minimal risk and large upside potential. Listen/read their presentation and I think you will agree.
Link to their conference presentation: http://tinyurl.com/ggzmv
No insurance due to cheap LEAP
Forest Oil Corporation (Forest) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of natural gas and liquids primarily in North America. At December 31, 2005, Forest held interests in approximately 3,900 net oil and gas wells in the United States and Canada and sold 165.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent of oil and gas, or an average of 453 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day during ther year ended December 31, 2005. Approximately 84% of the Company's total production was in the United States, and 16% was in Canada. In the United States, Forest's production of natural gas is generally sold in the areas where it is produced or at nearby pooling points. In Canada, the Company's natural gas production is sold by its subsidiary, Canadian Forest Oil Ltd., either through a joint venture with other producers, which is a long-term commitment, or under direct sales contracts or spot contracts.
Forest completed a major divestiture back in March of their offshore properties and made a major distribution to shareholders knocking -$20 off the stock price. Since early May the stock has been stuck in the $30-$35 range as investors digest their new onshore exploration focus. The change in direction appears to have confused many and the sharp drop in stock price probably confuses new investors. Their presentation at the energy conference made good sense to me and I think it was the right move. Here is the link to their conference presentation: http://tinyurl.com/ggzmv
Breakdown target: $30 entered on 9/12 update
Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call OJG-AH @ 4.50
XTO $40.63 XTO Energy
XTO was another presenter at the recent energy conference and I became a believer. They are heavily into natural gas so we can expect some further volatility as gas prices dip in late September.
Insurance Put: Feb $35 Put XTO-NG currently $1.40
XTO Energy Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploitation and exploration of producing oil and gas properties, and in the production, processing, marketing and transportation of oil and natural gas in the United States. The Company's proved reserves are principally located in the Eastern Region, including the East Texas Basin and northwestern Louisiana; North Texas Region, including the Barnett Shale; San Juan Region; Permian and South Texas Region; Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain Region, and Middle Ground Shoal Field of Alaska's Cook Inlet. As of December 31, 2005, its estimated proved reserves were 6.09 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, 47.4 million barrels (Bbls) of natural gas liquids and 208.7 million Bbls of oil. During the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company's average daily production was 1,033,143 thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gas, 10,445 Bbls of natural gas liquids and 39,051 Bbls of oil. In April 2005, it acquired Antero Resources Corporation.
XTO was a presenter at the recent energy conference and I was impressed with their outlook and direction. I believe their stock is under priced already but with the impending drop in gas prices as storage fills up I was hoping to buy them cheaper. Link to presentation: http://tinyurl.com/qorbr
Breakdown target: $40 - Entered in 9/12 update
Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OUO-AJ @ $6.50
Insurance Put: Feb $35 Put XTO-NG currently $1.40
VLO $50.30 Valero Energy
Valero is crumbling with the rest of the refiners as oil prices drop. However, most people forget that Valero buys oil $10-$12 cheaper than the rest of the pack. They can process the heavy sour crude from Saudi Arabia, which sells at a steep discount. They will always make more money than the rest of the refiners due to this competitive edge. That gives them an extra $10 crack spread per bbl. Support is currently $47.50 but with oil's potential to break $60 we will be using insurance.
Insurance Put: Buy Jan $45 Put VLO-MI currently $1.80
Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) owns and operates 18 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce refined products, such as reformulated gasoline (RFG), gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), CARB diesel fuel, low-sulfur diesel fuel and oxygenates (liquid hydrocarbon compounds containing oxygen). The Company also produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants and other refined products. Its business is organized into two segments: refining and retail. The refining segment includes refining operations, wholesale marketing, product supply and distribution, and transportation operations. The retail segment is segregated into two geographic regions: the U.S. System and the Northeast System. On September 1, 2005, Valero completed the merger of Premcor Inc. with and into Valero Energy Corporation.
Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $9.30