- New Trades -
(December 13, 2015)
It looks like I was a little too optimistic last week in thinking the market was ready for its traditional yearend rally. The combination of crude oil plunging to new six-year lows and then the high-yield bond market crumbling on Friday was a tough pill for the stock market to swallow.
It was interesting to hear the conversation about the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. In recent weeks it seemed like the market was ready for the Fed to finally raise raises for the first time since 2006. Yet last week there seemed to be a resurgence among the doubters who believe now is not the right time to raise rates.
I am not adding any new trades tonight. I'm not adding any new watch list candidates either. Uncertainty surrounding the stock market and the Fed's decision to raise rates (or not) has surged in the last few days. The stock market hates uncertainty. It's tough to trade when the market turns volatile with big up and down moves. The only sure bet this week is that stocks will see a lot of volatility on Wednesday afternoon as market participants try and digest the Fed's decision, their statement, and their forecast for 2016.
I mentioned in tonight's market wrap that the best move this week is probably step back and just watch all the fireworks from a safe distance. We'll have another opportunity next weekend.