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Weekly Newsletter, Saturday, 04/08/2006

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Table of Contents

  1. Commentary
  2. Changes in Portfolio
  3. Portfolio Listing
  4. New Plays
  5. Existing Plays
  6. Watch List

Leaps Trader Commentary

Oil ETF To Launch Monday

The first ever oil ETF, symbol USO, will begin trading at the open on Monday. It will be the first time retail traders will be able to capitalize directly on the price of oil without having to trade futures. The arrival of this ETF has been expected for months with heightened expectations over the last several weeks. I believe this will cause even greater speculation in oil and oil stocks by association. The operators of this fund should have a base inventory of crude futures already in place but a huge amount of retail buyers on Monday morning could require the operators to acquire more. I am hoping for a bounce in the futures Sunday night to get the week off to a good start for the ETF. It should bring the sector a lot of additional visibility.

Last week was a very strong week for oil despite being locked in a $2 range between $66 and $68. The high was $68.20 on Thursday and I consider Friday's rebound somewhat remarkable given the gain over the last three weeks. Profit taking was sharp but the dip was quickly bought indicating a lot of buyers hoping for an entry point.

The oil inventory report on Wednesday showed a sharp drop in gasoline of -4.4 mb and a -2.5 mb drop in distillates. Crude oil rose +2.1 mb but refinery utilization dropped to 85.9%. This compares to 94% for the same time last year. The amount of capacity offline is larger due to an extended run time at flat out levels after the hurricanes and the need to convert to a new product blend for summer. There are still three refineries offline due to hurricane damage. The removal of MTBE and addition of ethanol is proving to be troublesome. The new low sulfur diesel is also providing problems for refiners. As of August 2004 all diesel fuel was required to have less than 500 ppm of sulfur. As of January 2006 that level was reduced to 50 ppm with a target of 15 ppm by July 1st. This is called Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel or ULSD. The eventual requirement calls for a reduction to 15 ppm for all diesel by September 1st. The EPA had extended the deadlines for conversion to ULSD from July 1st to Sept 1st for refiners and October 15th for retailers due to refiner problems. Since there is not enough ULSD available for all truckers there is a plan in progress to allow different levels of diesel to be used depending on whether trucks are driven in town or on the road. Needless to say there is confusion among the ranks. Refiners expect continued shortages for a long time. Some refiners will drop the product rather than make the costly changes required to bring their antiquated facilities up to speed. This will keep prices high and indirectly provide support for higher oil prices for light sweet crude. This is the type of oil that most easily converts into low emission fuel. There is plenty of heavy sour crude available at cheaper prices and refiners like Valero will benefit from the wider spreads.

Senators Specter and Kohl have introduced a bill that would outlaw oil cartels like OPEC. Seriously! They seem to believe that by allowing the Federal Trade Commission to sue OPEC for price fixing we can force them to sell us oil for a fair price of our choosing. This is so unbelievable is boggles my mind. I can almost hear the laughter coming from Iran and Venezuela now. The only way to get oil prices lower is by using less and that has not been working well for the US consumer. We consume 25% of the world's oil and contrary to Specter and Kohl's intentions we cannot set the price. Nobody has to sell to us. Period. Obviously these guys have been in office too long. Kohl is 71, Specter 76.

The president of Nigeria said Friday that damage to facilities my militants should be repaired by the end of April. That damage is currently keeping 500,000 bpd of light crude off the market. Shortly after the announcement the militants renewed their pledge to remove 1 mbpd from production. They also stepped up their attacks on offshore platforms as they broaden their attacks on oil facilities.

Ecuador joined the ranks of Bolivia and Venezuela in changing the terms of the contracts with major oil companies. The Ecuador Congress passed a law giving the government 60% of the profits whenever oil prices exceeds set levels. The energy minister said if any company did not want to continue in Ecuador under the new law Ecuador would find somebody that would like to take their place. He said other companies would want to enter their oil sector including firms from Colombia, India and China. "We cannot permit someone from abroad (existing international oil majors) to impose rules over national riches." Under the previous contract the government received 20% of the profits. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) said the new law was a heavy blow that could lead them to reconsider investment plans. Evidently Ecuador has not learned the lesson of Venezuela. Changing contracts at will keeps companies from investing in infrastructure and oil production will eventually fall. Only the promise of profits keeps the majors interested when billions of dollars are at risk.

After the close today SLB and ATW split 2:1. Schlumberger is a current play but Atwood is not. Nabors Intl (NBR) will split 2:1 on the 18th, APC 2:1 5/26 and TLM 3:1 5/30.

Gas prices tumbled to support at $6.75 on Friday after spending much of the last three weeks trapped between $7.00-$7.60. It was a drop that had to occur given the insane levels of gas in storage. Winter is rapidly drawing to a close and we have 72% more gas in storage than normal. This is not a factor of strong production but simply the warmest winter on record for several decades. We should see continued gains in storage levels but once summer cooling demand arrives the utility companies will be extracting it in record amounts. Any April/May dip in prices should present a buying opportunity for the summer and fall demand cycle.

Oil prices are holding near $68 and I am hoping buying for the oil ETF will break that resistance. However, much stronger resistance awaits at $70. I doubt that will be broken until the summer demand begins to build and that could be another month. Refineries need to come back online and begin drawing down the current oversupply of crude.

For next week I would be happy if support at $65.50 holds and any breakout would be icing on the cake. I am not expecting any monster gains but would be happy to claim them if they arrive. Earnings in the energy sector will begin soon and could stimulate some further buying if they remain strong. Since prices held over $60 for the entire quarter (May contract) there should be some strong earnings. Refiners with plants still offline could be the exception. Conoco has a refinery offline for seven months and counting.

Since we were triggered on the CSX entry last week I am dropping Headwaters to make room.

Keep the faith and buy the dips!


Oil Service Index - Daily

May Crude Oil futures Chart - Daily

December Crude Oil Futures Chart - Daily

May Natural Gas Futures Chart - Daily

December Natural Gas Futures Chart - Daily

 


Changes in Portfolio

New Plays

None


Dropped Plays
HW $38.17 Headwaters

New Watch List Plays Triggered
CSX $63.38 CSX Corp

Portfolio Listing & Top Picks


New Plays

Most Recent Plays

CSX - $63.38 - CSX Corp

That was not exactly how I expected to enter CSX. The stock spiked up +1.20 at Monday's open to trigger our entry at $60.50 on the opening tick. I saw the breakout forming but did not expect it to be so violent. Bear Stearns upgraded CSX before the open and it was off to the races all week. CSX operates the largest railroad in the eastern US and Bear Stearns thought increased operating efficiency and higher volumes of coal would raise earnings dramatically. BSC is targeting $71 for the stock. Sometimes you just get lucky and sometimes you get hit by the truck. This time we were in the right place at the right time.

Company Info:

CSX Corporation (CSX) based in Jacksonville, Florida, owns companies providing rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services that combine to form transportation companies, connecting more than 70 ocean, river and lake ports. CSX's principal operating company, CSX Transportation Inc. (CSXT), operates the railroad in the eastern United States with approximately 21,000-mile rail network linking commercial markets in 23 states, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. CSX Intermodal Inc. (Intermodal) is a coast-to-coast intermodal transportation provider, an integrated intermodal company serving customers from origin to destination with its own truck and terminal operations, plus a dedicated domestic container fleet. Containers and trailers are loaded and unloaded from trains, with trucks providing the link between intermodal terminals and the customer.

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit Apr-3rd
Position 2008 $65 LEAP Call YYD-AM @ $8.30

Entry $60.50 (4/03)
[Image 1]
 


Play Updates

Existing Plays

PBR - $89.74 - Petro Brasileiro ** No Stop **

PBR continued its recovery from the prior weeks dip to $82 and set a new six week high on Thursday before pulling back slightly on Friday's profit taking. No change to the play.

Earnings schedule: May 12th.

Company Info:

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (Petrobras) is a mixed-capital enterprise of which a majority of voting capital is owned by the Brazilian Government. The Company is engaged in a range of oil and gas activities, which include segments such as exploration and production, refining, transportation and marketing, distribution, natural gas and power, international, and corporate. Besides the dominant market position in Brazil, Petrobras has oil and gas activities in international locations, with significant international operations in Latin America, the Gulf of Mexico and West of Africa. During the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company had estimated proved developed and undeveloped crude oil and natural gas reserves of approximately 11.82 billion barrels of oil equivalent in Brazil and other countries.

Position: 2007 $95 LEAP Call VDW-AS @ 8.40

Entry $87.00 (3/07)

SLB - $128.88 - Schlumberger Ltd. ** No Stop **

Another new high for SLB at $133.89 on Thursday but Friday's profit taking and pre split volatility knocked it back to $128.88. The split occurred after the close and will have SLB trading at $64.44 at Monday's open. Our $120 LEAP will split into two $60 LEAPS.

Earnings schedule: April 21st

2:1 Split April 7th, ex-date April 10th

Company Info:

Schlumberger Limited (Schlumberger) is an oilfield services company that supplies technology, project management and information solutions for the oil and gas industry. Schlumberger consists of two business segments: Schlumberger Oilfield Services and WesternGeco. Schlumberger Oilfield Services is an oilfield services company that supplies a range of technology services and solutions to the international petroleum industry. WesternGeco, jointly owned with Baker Hughes, is a surface seismic company. On January 29, 2004, Schlumberger completed the sale of its SchlumbergerSema business to Atos Origin. During the year ended December 31, 2004, Schlumberger completed the initial public offering of Axalto and no longer retains any ownership interest in this business.

Position: 2007 $120 LEAP Call VWY-AD @ $14.00

Entry $114 (3/08)

BTU - $52.11 - Peabody Energy ** No Stop **

No change. A new high on Monday followed by some consolidation but the upward trend is still intact.

Peabody profits are not related to the price of oil and coal prices will rise along with gas prices. Summer cooling season is just ahead and BTU is going to be a long-term hold. We bought the 2008 LEAP in anticipation of a long-term position.

No earnings date available but likely the 19th to 26th.

Shareholder meeting: May 5th

Company Info:

Peabody Energy Corporation (Peabody) is the largest private-sector coal company in the world. During the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company sold 227.2 million tons of coal. It sells coal to over 300 electricity generating and industrial plants in 16 countries. The Company owns, through its subsidiaries, majority interests in 32 coal operations located throughout all the United States coal producing regions and in Australia. Most of the production in the western United States is low-sulfur coal from the Powder River Basin. In the West, it owns and operates mines in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. In the East, it owns and operates mines in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia. The Company owns four mines in Queensland, Australia. Most of the Australian production is low-sulfur, metallurgical coal. In addition to the mining operations, the Company markets, brokers and trades coal.

Position: 2008 $55 LEAP Call LLW-AK @ $9.50

Entry $48.00 (3/07)

PCU - $90.15 - Southern Copper Corp ** No Stop **

Amazing rebound of nearly +$10 during the week with only a minor -$2 dip on Friday. A new high was reached on Thursday of $93.75. We can't ask for anything better than this.

No earnings date available. Est late April

Company Info:

Southern Copper Corporation, formerly Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SPCC), is an integrated producer of copper that operates mining, smelting and refining facilities in the southern part of Peru. The copper operations of the Company involve mining, milling and flotation of copper ore to produce copper concentrates, the smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister copper and the refining of blister copper to produce copper cathodes. SPCC also produces refined copper using the solvent extraction/electrowinning (SX/EW) technology. Silver, molybdenum and small amounts of other metals are contained in copper ore as by-products. Silver sold is recovered in the refining process or as an element of blister copper. Molybdenum is recovered from copper concentrate in a molybdenum by-product plant.

Position: Sept $85 Call PCU-IQ @ $6.20

Entry $78.00 (3/07)

XLE - $55.35 - Energy Select SPDR ** No Stop **

No change, this play is measured in $1 per week increments.

SPDR Info:

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (the Fund) is an index fund that seeks to replicate the total return of the Energy Select Sector Index of the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Stock Index (S&P 500 Index). During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2004 (fiscal 2004), the Fund had a return of 48.27%, as compared to the Energy Select Sector Index return of 48.91% and the S&P 500 Index return of 13.87%. The Fund invests in industries, such as energy equipment and services, and oil and gas services, among others. In fiscal 2004, its top five holdings were Exxon Mobil Corp., ChevronTexaco Corp., ConocoPhillips Inc., Schlumberger Ltd. and Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Breakdown of components of the XLE:
http://www.spdrindex.com/spdr/index.cfm?story=composition&symbol=XLE

Position: 2007 $55 LEAP Call OJW-AC @ $4.10

Entry $52.00 (3/07)

RAIL - $63.80 FreightCar America ** Stop loss $60 **

Rail is struggling but holding on to support at $63.50. The entire week was a consolidation period after the huge drop on the downgrade on the 28th. Nothing has changed and with the rails gaining speed I am hopeful RAIL will recover. With earnings two weeks away they have already announced the conference call. This is a positive step and suggests they have good news.

Earnings schedule: April 26th.

4/02/06: Train wreck! RAIL took a major beating this week after an analyst said orders could be slowing for the sector due to monster increases in prices of rail cars. Steel is pushing prices higher and buyers are "supposedly" balking. Nobody in the sector has made this claim but the analyst gave everyone a haircut and especially RAIL. Support is $63 and we are nearly there.

You may think RAIL is not an energy play but you would be wrong. 78% of its rail cars are for coal. You may remember in mid 2005 the coal companies saw a period of soft earnings because there was not enough rail capacity to get their coal to market. RAIL saw a +120% increase in orders in Q4 and saw a backlog of nearly 21,000 cars at year-end. As more energy products are shipped from Canada and into Mexico the demand will continue to grow.

Company Info:

FreightCar America, Inc. is a manufacturer of aluminum-bodied railroad freight cars (railcars) in North America. The Company specializes in the production of coal-carrying railcars, which represented 78% of its deliveries of railcars, during the year ended December 31, 2004, while the balance of its production consisted of a broad spectrum of railcar types, including aluminum-bodied and steel-bodied railcars. It also refurbishes and rebuilds railcars and sells forged, cast and fabricated parts for all of the railcars that the Company produces, as well as those manufactured by others. Prior to April 1, 2005, the Company was named FCA Acquisition Corp. On April 1, 2005, a former parent company, also named FreightCar America, Inc., merged with and into FCA Acquisition Corp., with FCA Acquisition Corp. being the surviving corporation. In connection with the merger, FCA Acquisition Corp. changed its name to FreightCar America, Inc.

Currently the longest option you can buy is the September series.

Position: Sept $80 Call RQN-IP @ $4.00

Entry $67.00 (3/07)

OIH - $150.78 - Oil Service Holders ** No stop **

No material change. The OIH set a new six-week high at just under $155 on Wednesday but took the index hit on Friday for nearly a -3 loss. This is almost identical to the action the prior week only $5 lower.

Holder Info:

The Oil Service HOLDRS Trust issues depositary receipts called Oil Service HOLDRS, representing an undivided beneficial ownership in the common stock of a group of specified companies that, among other things, provide drilling, well-site management, and related products and services for the oil service industry. The Bank of New York is the trustee. The Oil Service HOLDRS Trust was formed under a depositary trust agreement dated February 6, 2001. The 18 issuers of the underlying securities represented by Oil Service HOLDRS, as of August 1, 2005, were Baker Hughes Incorporated, BJ Services Company, Cooper Cameron Corporation, Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc., ENSCO International Incorporated, Grant Prideco, Inc., GlobalSantaFe Corp., Halliburton Company, Hanover Compressor Company, Nabors Industries Ltd, Noble Corporation, National Oilwell Varco Inc., Rowan Companies, Inc., Transocean Inc., Smith International, Inc., Schlumberger Limited, Tidewater Inc. and Weatherford International Ltd.

(LEAP PUT SALE)

Position: SHORT 2007 $160 LEAP PUT ZJO-ML @ $29.60
Position: LONG April $120 Put OIH-PD @ $1.95

Entry $135 (2/28)

CNI - $46.25 Canadian National Railway ** Stop Loss $43 **

CNI is finally starting to drift higher but resistance at $47 is still a problem. No change to the play and the transportation sector is still strong.

Earnings schedule: April 20th

Company Info:

Canadian National Railway Company (CN), directly and through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the rail and related transportation business. As of December 31, 2005, the Company had a network of approximately 19,200 route miles of track. CN's network spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, British Columbia, Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, and the cities of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minnesota/Superior, Wisconsin, Green Bay, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis and Jackson, Mississippi, with connections to all points in North America. The Company's revenues are derived from the movement of seven commodity groups, including petroleum and chemicals, grain and fertilizers, coal, metals and minerals, forest products, intermodal and automotive.

Position: Oct $50 Call CNI-JJ @ $3.00

Entry $47.95 (3/02)

TLM - $56.19 - Talisman Energy ** Stop Loss $45 **

Nice recovery and resumption of an upward trend. A new six-week high over $57 was hit on Thursday and Friday's pullback was minimal. Talisman is a takeover candidate and we have a 3:1 split coming in May.

Earnings date unavailable: Estimate is sometime in May.
Shareholder meeting: May 9th.

3:1 Stock split scheduled for around May-26th

Prior play commentary:

Talisman is an aggressive driller operating worldwide. Net income increased +139% for 2005. Production increased +7% to 470,000 boe/d and Talisman replaced 189% of those reserves produced. This makes Talisman a very likely takeover target for somebody like Conoco looking to acquire Talisman's nearly 2 billion bbls of proven reserves and its worldwide drilling operations.

Talisman recently announced a 3:1 split to be effective on May-25th. This should provide some added lift to the stock price as we move into the summer rally period. I believe we should buy the October $60 call, which will split into (3) $20 calls and hopefully be in the money before the split occurs. A $20 stock of this caliber should be catnip to players on a budget and I expect it to be bought quickly. With option premiums currently $4.50 they will split to a cost of $1.50 each. It is hard to go wrong with a price like that.

3:1 Split scheduled for May-25th.

Company info:

Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) is an independent international upstream oil and gas company whose main business activities include exploration, development, production, transporting and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Company's operations, during the year ended December 31, 2004, were conducted principally in four geographic segments: North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia and Algeria. The Trinidad Angostura project began production in January 2005. Exploration is being advanced in other areas outside the principal geographic segments, including Alaska, Colombia, Qatar and Peru. During 2004, total production averaged 438 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and the Company exited the year producing 452 mboe/d in December. In 2004, the Company drilled 641 successful wells.

Position: October $60 Call TLM-JL currently $6.00

Entry $56.44 (3/05)

DO - $91.21 - Diamond Offshore Drilling ** Stop Loss $70 **

Diamond set a new all time high on Wednesday of $95 before pulling back on the Friday weakness. No challenge here and no change in plan. A downgrade to hold by AG Edwards on Friday had little impact.

Earnings schedule: April 26th

Company Info:

DO earnings were reported on the 9th and rose +767% to beat the street by +17 cents. Earnings for all of 2005 were $1.91 compared to a loss of -0.06 in 2004. Diamond predicted another great year in 2006.

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. engages principally in the contract drilling of offshore oil and gas wells. As of December 31, 2004, the Company had a fleet of 45 offshore rigs consisting of 30 semisubmersibles, 14 jack-ups and one drillship. Diamond offers a range of services worldwide in various markets, including the deep water, harsh environment, conventional semisubmersible and the jack-up market. Its principal markets for its offshore contract drilling services are the Gulf of Mexico, including the United States and offshore Mexico, Europe, principally the United Kingdom and Norway, South America, Africa and Australia/Southeast Asia. From time to time, its fleet operates in various other markets worldwide. Diamond provides offshore drilling services to a customer base that includes private and independent oil and gas companies and government-owned oil companies.

Position: 2007 $80 LEAP VCT-AP @ $10.00
Cost adjustment +1.80 on 3/29 short call stop. Cost = $11.80

Tuesday Feb-21st cost reduction strategy:
Sell the September $95 Call DO-IS @ $4.90, stopped 3/29, $6.70
Set a stop loss on the call at DO $90, changed to $89 3/19
Buy back the call on a dip to $68. Changed to $75 on 3/05

Entry $75 (2/15)

RIG - $82.29 - Transocean Inc ** No stop **

RIG hit a new all time high at $85.38 on Thursday. Unfortunately that was +43 cents over our stop on the short call. That cost us $1.70 to stop out of the call. Rig has gained nearly +$10 since we sold that call. Sometimes the timing just doesn't work out.

Maintain a profit stop on the long put at $57.

Earnings schedule: May 4th

Company info:

Transocean Inc., formerly known as Sonat Offshore Drilling Inc., is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells, related equipment and work crews, primarily on a dayrate basis, to drill oil and gas wells. The Company operates with a particular focus on deepwater and harsh environment drilling services. The Company also provides additional services, including management of third-party well service activities. The Company's Transocean drilling segment consists of drillships, semisubmersibles, jackups and other drilling rigs.

Position: 2007 $80 LEAP VOI-AP @ $9.00
Cost reduction:
Added +0.80 cents on 3/1 Call stop. Cost = $9.80
Added +1.70 on 4/6 call stop. Cost = $11.50

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the May $85 call RIG-EQ @ $2.80, stopped @ $4.50 4/6, -1.70
Set a profit stop at $74
Set a stop loss at $84.95

Tuesday Feb-21st insurance strategy:
Sell the March $75 Call RIG-CO @ $1.90, stopped at $2.70 3/01
Buy the May $65 Put RIG-QM @ $2.00
Maintain a profit stop on the put at $57

Entry $75.00 (2/14)

GI - $70.50 - Giant Industries ** Stop Loss $60 **

Giant rallied to $73.77 on Thursday and a new historic high. We were stopped out of the short call on Wednesday when Giant hit $72.50. This produced a loss on the stop of -$2. This removed half of the profit from the first short call we sold that netted us +3.75. We are still ahead of the game but this inning went to Giant.

No earnings date available: Estimate late May

Company info:

Giant Industries, Inc., through its subsidiary Giant Industries Arizona, Inc. and other subsidiaries, refines and sells petroleum products on the East Coast primarily in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina and in the Southwest primarily in New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado, with a concentration in the Four Corners area where these states meet. Phoenix Fuel Co., Inc., another subsidiary, distributes commercial wholesale petroleum products primarily in Arizona. The Company has three business units: retail group, which operates service stations including convenience stores or kiosks; Phoenix Fuel, a commercial wholesale petroleum products distributor selling diesel fuel, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, motor oil, hydraulic oil, gear oil, cutting oil, grease and various chemicals and solvents, and refining group, which operates the Company's Ciniza and Bloomfield refineries in the Four Corners area of New Mexico and the Yorktown refinery in Virginia.

Position: Sept $65 Call GI-IM @ $8.50
Cost reduction:
Cost reduced by -3.75 on 3/12 to $4.75.
Cost increased by +2.00 on 4/05 to $6.75

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $75 call GI-FO @ $2.40, stopped 4/05 @ $4.40, -2.00
Set a profit stop at $58.50
Set a stop loss at $72.50

Tuesday Feb-21st cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $75 Call GI-FO @ $5.60, closed 3/12 $1.85, +3.75
Set a stop loss on the call at $73, changed to $69 3/05
Set a profit stop on the call at $52, changed to $56 on 2/26

Entry $60 (2/14)

HP - $68.87 - Helmerich Payne ** Stop loss $62 **

HP continued to cool and move sideways just under $70. Because of the costly stops on RIG and Giant I lowered the stop loss to $71.50 and raised the profit stop to $64.

Maintain a profit stop on the short call at $64.
Maintain a stop loss on the short call at $71.50.

Earnings date estimate: April 26th

Company info:

Earnings in January rose by +30% to $49 million compared to $17 million in the same quarter in 2004. It is all about day rates and HP commands some of the largest with their state of the art rigs. Unfortunately they were colored with the same brush as RIG on RIG's warning.

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is primarily engaged in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. It is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate. The Company is organized into two separate operating entities: contract drilling and real estate. The Company's contract drilling business is composed of three business segments: United States land drilling, United States offshore platform drilling and international drilling. The Company's United States land drilling is conducted primarily in Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, and Louisiana, and offshore from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and California. The Company also operated in seven international locations during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2005: Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea and Hungary. In addition, the Company is providing drilling consulting services for one customer in Russia. Its real estate investments are located in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Position: Sept $75 Call HP-IO @ $7.20
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -2.75 on 3/8 to $4.45.

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $75 call HP-FO currently $2.05
Set a profit stop at $62.00
Set a stop loss at $74.50

Tuesday Feb-21st cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $70 Call HP-FN @ $4.70, closed 3/8 $1.95, +2.75
Set a stop loss on the call at $69.95
Set a profit stop on the call at $59, changed to $61 2/26

HP Entry $69 (2/13)

NOV - $63.29 - National Oilwell Varco ** Stop Loss $55 **

NOV went sideways for the week which is good considering our short $65 call. I raised the profit stop to $61.50 given the gains in oil over the last two weeks.

Maintain a profit stop on the short call at $61.50.
Maintain a stop loss on the short call at $66.25.
(Yes it is in the money)

Company Info:

National-Oilwell Varco Inc., formerly National-Oilwell, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells systems, components and products used in oil and gas drilling and production, as well as distributes products and provides services to the exploration and production segment of the oil and gas industry. The Company's Products and Technology segment designs and manufactures complete land drilling and workover rigs, as well as drilling-related systems on offshore rigs. Non-capital revenue sources within its Products and Technology segment include drilling motors and specialized downhole tools that are sold or rented, spare parts and service on the large installed base of its equipment, expendable parts for mud pumps and other equipment and smaller downhole, progressive cavity and transfer pumps. Company's Distribution Services segment provides maintenance, repair and operating supplies and spare parts to drill site and production locations throughout North America and to offshore contractors.

Position: Aug $65 Call NOV-HM $6.90
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -2.90 on 3/3 to $4.00.

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the May $65 call NOV-EM currently $2.40
Set a profit stop at $56.50
Set a stop loss at $66.75 (yes it is in the money) I am betting on resistance at $65 to hold ahead of hurricane season.

Tuesday Feb-21st cost reduction strategy:
Sell the May $70 Call NOV-EN @ $4.20, closed 3/7 $1.30, +2.90
Set a stop loss on the call at $69.95
Set a profit stop on the call at $58

NOV Entry $61.50 (2/14)

SUN - $79.52 - Sunoco ** Stop Loss $58 **

SUN continues to test upper resistance at $81 and I believe a breakout is coming. No change in the play.

Maintain the profit stop on the May $70 put at $66.

Estimated earnings date: Early May
Shareholder meeting: May 4th

Original play description:

Sunoco has refining capacity of nearly 1 mbpd spread over five refineries and controls 4500 miles of pipeline and sells through 4528 retail outlets. They would make a very nice takeover target for Valero with a market cap of only $10.4 billion compared to $33 billion for Valero. Net income rose +61% in Q4 to $974 million. Valero made $1.35B for the same period.

Company Info:

Sunoco, Inc. operates through its subsidiaries as a petroleum refiner and marketer, and chemicals manufacturer with interests in logistics and coke making. Sunoco's petroleum refining and marketing operations include the manufacturing and marketing of a range of petroleum products, including fuels, lubricants and some petrochemicals. Sunoco's chemical operations consist of the manufacturing, distribution and marketing of commodity and intermediate petrochemicals. The Company's operations are organized into five business segments: refining and supply, retail marketing, chemicals, logistics and coke.

Position: 2007 $80 LEAP VUN-AP @ $8.70

Tuesday Feb-21st insurance strategy:
Sell the May $90 Call SUN-EA @ $2.95, closed 3/27 @ .85, +2.10
Buy the May $70 Put SUN-QN @ $2.75
Set a stop loss on the call at $89.95.
Set a profit stop on the put at $65, changed to $66 2/26.
Set a profit stop on the call at $70.

Entry $72.51 (2/12)

COP - $65.95 - Conoco Phillips ** No Stop **

Conoco closed the Burlington deal and never looked back. COP hit a new four-month high last week at $68 and looks very strong. COP is directly related to oil prices and with the Burlington acquisition it is also directly related to natural gas prices. Expect continued volatility but also expect the trend to continue.

Earnings Schedule: April 26th

Play description:

Conoco continues to hover in the $58-$64 range. This should be support as the acquisition of Burlington Industries approaches. The companies expect it to conclude in the first half of 2006. Burlington reported earnings that nearly doubled the prior year in Q4 and Conoco reported earnings that rose more than +50%. Together they should receive some synergistic benefits and increase shareholder value. Conoco is the most aggressive integrated oil company when it comes to adding reserves. They are not afraid to pay for them and they are clearly planning for the future.

Company Info:

Conoco Phillips is an integrated energy company. The Company's business is organized into six operating segments. The Exploration and Production segment primarily explores for, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids on a worldwide basis. The Midstream segment gathers and processes natural gas produced by Conoco Phillips and others, and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids. The Refining and Marketing segment purchases, refines, markets and transports crude oil and petroleum products. The LUKOIL Investment segment consists of the Company's equity investment in LUKOIL, an international, integrated oil and gas company. The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. The Emerging Businesses segment encompasses the development of new businesses, including new technologies related to natural gas conversion into clean fuels and related products, technology solutions, power generation and emerging technologies.

Position: 2007 $65 LEAP OJP-AM @ $5.00

Insurance Put: None

Entry $60.00 (02/08)

SU - $81.69 - Suncor Energy ** Stop loss $65.00 **

Suncor rallied to nearly a new historic high on Thursday and retreated very little on Friday. Earnings are May 4th.

Earnings schedule: May 4th

Maintain a profit stop on the short call at $72.
Maintain a stop loss on the short call at $83.50.

Play description:

Suncor is very active in the Canadian oil sands and has a strong plan to ramp production for the next decade. This is a very strong company in charge of their own fate. There are no OPEC concerns, no terrorists and no problems like Hugo Chavez. With the new government in Canada their business problems will likely ease instead of get worse.

I ate lunch with the Vice President of Suncore a couple months ago and he answered my questions very positively and with lots of confidence. I strongly believe this will be a good company for a long time. That does not mean profits cannot be hurt if we suddenly end up with an oil glut but that is not likely.

Company Info:

Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor), formerly Suncor Inc., is a Canadian integrated energy company that explores for, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas, transports and refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products. Periodically, the Company also markets third-party petroleum products. Suncor also carries on energy trading activities focused principally on buying and selling futures contracts and other derivative instruments based on the commodities the Company produces. The Company has four principal operating business units: Oil Sands; Natural Gas; Energy Marketing and Refining, Canada, and Refining and Marketing, United States of America.

Position: 2007 $85 LEAP OYX-AQ @ $10.40 2/06
Position: 2007 $85 LEAP OYX-AQ @ $7.70 on 2/13,
average cost $9.05
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -3.60 on 3/8 to $5.45.

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $85 call SU-FP @ $2.65
Set a profit stop at $71.00
Set a stop loss at $83.50

Tuesday Feb-21st insurance strategy:
Sell the March $80 Call SU-CP @ $2.65, closed 3/8 .20, +2.45
Buy the March $70 Put SU-ON @ $0.85, closed 3/8 $2.00, +1.15
Set a stop loss on the call at $79.95.
Set a profit stop on the put at $65, changed to $70 2/26.
Set a profit stop on the call at $68, changed to $70 2/26.

CCJ - $37.47 - Cameco ** No stop **

CCJ rallied to $39.80 and very close to a new historic high on Thursday but then the bad news broke. A water leak in a second shaft on the Cigar lake mine is going to delay construction for up to six months. Delays for this and other reasons could raise the current overall cost estimate of $520 million by as much as $50 million. Cameco had just managed a nice rally from $33 to near $40 over the last two weeks. It remains to be seen what will happen to the stock price since Cigar Lake is only one of Cameco's many mines. This is a very long-term play and mother nature is not making any more uranium. Be patient.

Earnings schedule: April 27th.

Original Play Description:

We were triggered on the breakout at $72.50 on Monday and again on the $67 breakdown target on Wednesday. Each trigger was for a 1/2 position giving us a full position with an average cost of $9.80 each. That turned out to be the closing price on Friday so if you missed either opportunity you did not miss anything. We are going to add another full position after CCJ splits on Feb-23rd.

This is my best single play in the list. Cameco just announced record earnings and raised their forecast for 2006 and beyond. They projected a +40% rise in revenue and a rise in margin from 23% to 28% for 2006. At the same time they announced a 2:1 split for Feb-23rd on the NYSE. They also raised the dividend to 32 cents from 24 cents payable on April 13th.

They also announced they were buying Zircatec for $108 million. Zircatec is a maker of nuclear fuel bundles for Canadian designed heavy water reactors. They said the acquisition would moderately boost 2006 earnings assuming no material changes in operations.

The combination of events including the purchase of Zircatec caused the stock to plunge from its all time high of $82.15 on Feb-1st to close at $69.97 on Friday Feb-3rd. That level remained support for the entire week through Feb-10th.

Company Info:

Cameco Corporation is engaged in exploring, developing, mining and milling uranium ore to produce uranium concentrates. The Company is also a commercial converter of uranium concentrates (U3O8) to UF6 (uranium hexafluoride), as well as a supplier of services to convert uranium concentrates to UO2 (uranium dioxide). Cameco, through its subsidiaries, has a 31.6% limited partnership interest in Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates six nuclear reactors in Ontario, Canada. Cameco also owns 53% of Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG), a growth-oriented gold mining and exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of gold properties in Central Asia, the former Soviet Union and other emerging markets.

Pre-split entries:
Breakout target $72.50 hit
Position: 2007 $80 LEAP ZBK-AP 1/2 position @ $10.60 (2/06)

Breakdown target $67.00 hit
Position: 2007 $80 LEAP ZBK-AP 1/2 position @ $9.00 (2/08)

Pre-split average cost: $9.80
Post split position: (4) 2007 $40 LEAP ZBK-AH @ $4.90
Cost reduction: -.75 on 3/21, cost now $4.15

Additional Position: 2008 $40 LEAP LTA-AH @ $9.00 on 2/25.
Added after the 2:1 split on 2/24

Put insurance: None today

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $40 call CCJ-FH @ $1.75
Set a profit stop at $33.50, hit 3/21, exit $1.00, +0.75
Set a stop loss at $39.95

HAL - $77.21 - Halliburton ** No Stop **

This was an outstanding week for HAL with a +$6 gain and a move very close to the resistance high at $80. No change in this play as we await the split in May.

Earnings schedule: April 21st

Play description:

Halliburton is planning on spinning off KBR, its construction and engineering unit. This should produce a significant bounce in HAL stock. (KBR stands for Kellogg, Brown and Root) HAL is a very strong service company and should soar when it is no longer held in check by the sins of KBR.

2:1 Split to be approved at May 17th shareholder meeting.

Company Info:

Halliburton Company is an oilfield services company, and a provider of engineering and construction services. The Company provides services, products, maintenance, engineering and construction to energy, industrial and governmental customers. Its six business segments are Production Optimization, Fluid Systems, Drilling and Formation Evaluation, Digital and Consulting Solutions, collectively the Energy Services Group, and Government and Infrastructure, and Energy and Chemicals, collectively known as KBR. In August 2004, the Company sold its surface well testing and sub-sea test tree operations to Power Well Service Holdings, LLC. In January 2005, the Company emerged out of the chapter 11 proceedings and can operate the businesses without Bankruptcy Court supervision.

Current position: 2007 $80 LEAP Call VHW-AP @ 11.25

Original Position: 2007 $85 LEAP Call VHW-AQ @ $9.80
Monday March 20th: Position change
Sold the 2007 $85 LEAP VHW-AQ, exit $4.25.
Bought the 2007 $80 LEAP VHW-AP, entry $5.70.

Our adjusted cost in the 2007 $80 LEAPS is now $11.25
The strike is lower and will split into (2) $40 LEAPS @ $5.63

Insurance Put: None until after the split

Entry $79.00 (2/06)

KMG - $100.11 - Kerr Mcgee ** Stop Loss $90.00 **

KMG rallied nearly +$8 into Thursday's high but gave back -3 before Friday's close. Still an amazing performance. I changed the stops on the short call due to the extreme volatility last week.

Maintain the profit stop on the short call at $96.00.
Maintain the stop loss on the short call at $102.50.
Change the profit stop on the April $90 put to $88.50.

Earnings date estimate: April 26th

Company Info:

Kerr-McGee Corporation (Kerr-McGee) is an energy and inorganic chemical holding company whose consolidated subsidiaries, joint ventures and other affiliates (together, affiliates) have operations throughout the world. The Company's core businesses include exploration and production, and chemicals. Kerr-McGee's oil and gas exploration and production areas are onshore in the United States, in the Gulf of Mexico, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea and China. In addition, the Company has exploration programs in Alaska, Brazil, Morocco, Bahamas and Benin. Kerr-McGee affiliates engaged in chemical businesses produce and market inorganic industrial chemicals, lithium-metal-polymer batteries and heavy minerals. On June 25, 2004, the Company completed a merger with Westport Resources Corporation. On March 8, 2005, the Company annonced its decision to proceed with the proposal to pursue alternatives for the separation of the chemical business, including a spinoff or sale.

Position: 2007 $115 LEAP Call OGM-AC @ $9.00
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -2.20 on 3/7 to $6.80

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the July $110 call KMG-GB currently $2.50
Set a profit stop at $92.00
Set a stop loss at $108.50

Tuesday Feb-21st insurance strategy:
Sell the April $105 Call KMG-DA @ $3.00, closed 3/7, .80, +2.20
Buy the April $90 Put KMG-PR @ $1.25
Set a stop loss on the call at $104.95.
Set a profit stop on the call at $93.
Set a profit stop on the put at $85. Changed to $88.50, 3/26

Entry $107.00 (2/06)

UPL - $62.65 - Ultra Petroleum ** No Stop **

Finally a sideways week for UPL. The drop in the price of gas finally created a drag on Ultra and one that could last for a couple weeks. I am leaving the profit stop the same but lowering the stop loss. No earnings date has been announced but historically it is the first week of the second month.

Maintain the profit stop on the short call at $56.
Maintain the stop loss on the short call at $65.50.

Estimated earnings date: Early May

Original play description:

Ultra was one of the few that did not get hit on Monday. The breakdown target at $62 was our trigger on Tuesday but unfortunately it was followed by a -$7 drop on Thursday. They announced earnings on Tuesday that beat the street but they were hammered on Thursday after announcing they entered into a pipeline agreement with Rockies Express Pipeline (REP) for $70 million a year for ten years starting in 2007. REP is obligated to build pipelines to southwestern Wyoming and transport 200,000 MMBtu per day of gas to connecting hubs for Ultra.

Ultra's finding and development cost for 2005 was $0.56 per MCFe and reserve replacement was 773%, both the best in the industry. Ultra has 17 years of drilling planned with 160 wells planned for 2006 in Wyoming alone. They produced 73.4 Bcfe of gas in 2005 which suggests the 200,000 MMBtu capacity being contracted above is only a portion of their expected Wyoming production. With Wyoming gas selling for more than $8 per MMBtu in January that represents $1.6 million in gas production through the pipeline per day or roughly $584 million per year. I would gladly pay $70 million for pipes to carry $584 million of gas to market.

Ultra ended 2005 with no debt. Their profit per MCFe was $6.94 in Q4. Net profit increased +111% in 2005, ROE was 55%. Proved reserves in Wyoming at the end of 2005 were 2.022 TCFe of gas, a +32% increase over 2004. Proved and probable reserves were 6.29 TCFe. This represents better than a 2000% increase in reserve growth since 1999. Ultra has more than 2877 scheduled wells to drill in Wyoming over the next 17 years.

Company Info:

Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. During the year ended December 31, 2004, it owns interests in approximately 166,974 gross (92,997 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 260 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 241 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 41.5% of the 241 gross wells. Through Pendaries Petroleum Ltd., it is active in oil and gas exploration and development in Bohai Bay, China. The Company also owns interests in 15,518 gross (14,652 net) acres in Pennsylvania, as well as interest in approximately 720 gross (320 net) acres and interests in three productive wells in Texas.

Position: 2007 $70 LEAP Call OZH-AN @ $10.70
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -3.00 on 3/7 to $7.70
Cost reduction: Cost reduced by -3.30 on 3/7 to $4.40

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $70 call UPL-FN currently $1.85
Set a profit stop at $52.00
Set a stop loss at $70.50

Tuesday Feb-21st insurance strategy:
Sell the June $65 Call UPL-FM @ $4.30, closed 3/7 $1.30, +3.00
Buy the June $55 Put UPL-RK @ $4.30, closed 3/7 $7.30, +3.30
Set a stop loss on the call at $64.95.
Set a profit stop on the put at $50.
Set a profit stop on the call at $50.

Entry $62 (2/08)

VLO - $61.40 Valero ** No Stop **

VLO broke over resistance at $61 but failed to hold the highs at just over $63. The trend has returned as summer refining season arrives. I am lowering the stop loss on the short call just in case we get another leg up next week.

Maintain the profit stop on the short call to $58.50
Maintain a stop loss on the short call at $63.50.

Earnings date estimate: Late April

Company Info:

Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) owns and operates 18 refineries having a combined throughput capacity, including crude oil and other feedstocks, of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. Valero produces environmentally clean refined products, such as reformulated gasoline (RFG), gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), CARB diesel fuel, low-sulfur diesel fuel and oxygenates (liquid hydrocarbon compounds containing oxygen). It also produces conventional gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt and petrochemicals. Valero markets branded and unbranded refined products on a wholesale basis in the United States and Canada through a bulk and rack marketing network. It sells refined products through a network of more than 4,700 retail and wholesale branded outlets in the United States, Canada and Aruba. Valero's retail operations include approximately 1,500 company-operated sites that sell transportation fuels and convenience store merchandise.

Position: 2007 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $6.60
1/30 Cost reduced by spread on put/call -0.90, now $5.70
2/06 Cost reduced by -1.00 on closed call, now $4.70
2/09 Cost reduced by -3.10 on closed $57 put, now $1.60
2/14 Cost increased by +0.15 on exited Mar-$45 put, now $1.75

Monday Mar-20TH cost reduction strategy:
Sell the June $67.50 call ZPY-FR currently $1.25
Set a profit stop at $53.75
Set a stop loss at $64.50

Monday Feb-13th
Set profit stop on March $45 put at $48 on VLO, exit $1.05 2/14
Insurance Put: March $45 Put VLO-OI @ $1.20
Put entered on 12/27 when VLO traded at $51

Monday Feb-6th:
Close the March $65 Call VLO-CM @ $1.50, +1.00
Set a profit target on the March $57 put at $54, exit $4.70 (2/9)

Monday Jan-30th:
Sell March $65 Call VLO-CM @ $2.50 bid
Buy March $57.50 Put VLO-OY @ $1.60 ask
Set a stop loss on the call at $64. Profit stop at $54
Set a profit stop on the put at $52.

Entry $52.30 (12/16)

HW - $38.17 - Headwaters ** Closed **

HW continues to move higher at a snails pace but for some unexplained reason Friday saw a decline of more than a buck. The sharpness of the drop looks suspicious. I said last week that if a new watch list entry was triggered I would cut HW to make room.

********

Headwaters (HW) has a compound annual growth rate of more than +120% mainly because it deals with the ash left over from burned coal. Coal generates a lot of ash and it is a problem the electric generating plants have to deal with when these cold fronts really suck up their coal supplies. Headwaters has three separate businesses from that ash. They have a business that buys and sells it for various purposes. Second they have produced a bonding agent to that makes it easy to transport without blowing out of the rail cars. They sell this to others for profit. Third they have a patented process for converting this ash into a synthetic fuel, which is licensed to plants that actually do the conversion.

They also make building materials and a cement substitute that uses this ash to make concrete more durable. Considering the thousands of tons of ash generated each week this appears to be a gold mine for Headwaters. When electric plants fight the tons of daily ash Headwaters is there to help and converts that ash back to dollars. This sounds too good to be true and I think that was the real problem with the decline from $46 in August to the $30 level in October. The ramp from IPO in April from $30 to $46 and decline back to $30 is complete. Those that got in on the good IPO story took their profits as energy prices declined. Now may be the time to jump back on the coal train with Headwaters rather than Peabody.

Company Info:

Headwaters Incorporated is a diversified company providing products, technologies and services to the energy, construction and home improvement industries. Headwaters conduct its business primarily through four business units, including Headwaters Resources, Headwaters Technology Innovation Group (HTI), Headwaters Construction Materials and Headwaters Technology Innovation Group. In September 2004, the Company acquired Tapco Holdings Inc., a manufacturer of building products and professional tools used in residential remodeling and construction. In June 2004, the Company acquired Eldorado Stone, LLC, a manufacturer of architectural manufactured stone based in San Marcos, California. Eldorado Stone is being purchased from Graham Partners, a middle-market private equity firm. Eldorado Stone will be integrated into Headwaters' coal-based construction materials operations.

Position: 2007 $40 LEAP Call ZPP-AH @ $4.30

Dec-27th Insurance Combo:
Sell May $40 Call HW-EH @ $2.05, stopped @ 2.30, 3/17, -.25
Buy May $35 Put HW-QG @ $2.15

Entry $35.50 (11/22)

CHK - $31.28 Chesapeake Energy ** No Stop **

No change for CHK with a range bound week between $31 and $32.50. The price of gas knocked it back to the low end of the range on Friday. With potentially several weeks of falling gas prices ahead I would not expect any spikes above $32.50 soon. I considered selling another short call on CHK but option premiums are so low it is not worth the risk.

Target $25 to sell the existing put.

Prior commentary:
The CEO said on Wednesday (2/01) that CHK is more likely a buyer of other companies and assets than a target of a takeover itself. He said there were many potential targets smaller than Chesapeake and the drop in gas prices made them attractive. He said gas prices should remain in the $7.50-$10.50 range the rest of the year. He did not expect any major to make a big play like Conoco did when it purchased Burlington late last year for $35 billion. He also said CHK's $2.2 billion acquisition of Columbia Natural Resources was going better than planned and the opportunity appears to be bigger than originally thought. McClendon said CHK had actively hedged its output when prices were higher and were profiting from the swings in prices. He said the plunge in gas prices was "fantastic" because it made acquisitions cheaper, stemmed demand destruction and gave consumers a break on their utility bills. CHK also announced the private placement of $500 million in 6.5% notes due in 2017. The proceeds would be used to pay off bank debt. What a deal! Gas will be $30 by then and the $500 million plus interest will be chump change.

Company Info:

Chesapeake Energy Corporation is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas from underground reservoirs and the marketing of natural gas and oil for other working interest owners in properties that it operates. The Company's properties are located in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, Montana, Colorado, North Dakota and New Mexico. The proved oil and natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2004 were approximately 4.9 trillion cubic feet of gas equivalent (tcfe). At December 31, 2004, approximately 89% of the Company's proved reserves (by volume) were natural gas, and approximately 70% of its proved oil and natural gas reserves were located in the primary operating area, the Mid-Continent region of the United States, which includes Oklahoma, western Arkansas, southwestern Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.

Position: 2007 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $4.00
Cost reduction: -40 cents on 2/21 covered call. Cost = $3.60

Insurance Put:
April $25 CHK-PE when CHK traded at $28 on 11/07 @ $2.30

Covered Call 12/27:
Sold the April $35 Call CHK-DG currently $2.15
Set a stop loss on the call at $34.95, exit @ $2.70, -.55, 1/30

Tuesday Feb-21st cost reduction strategy:
Sell the April $32.50 Call CHK-DZ @ $1.40, stop 3/30, 1.00, +.40
Set a stop loss on the call at $32.50.
Set a profit stop on the call at $27, change to $28 on 2/26.

Entry $29 (11/04)

 


Leaps Trader Watch List

One Little Indian Left

Only one stock left on the watch list. Frontier Oil suffered a downgrade last week that came very close to our trigger of $56 but not close enough. I really like Frontier and had a long time position that was stopped out by the drop. I am looking to get back in at the same $56 level. Aggressive traders might want to hedge that bet on any strength on Monday. Once FTO starts moving higher again I believe it will attract buyers quickly. FTO, Holly (HOC) and Giant are all in the same category. You have to take your entry points quickly or be left watching the next ramp higher.

Jim Brown
 

Dropped Entries

None


New Watch List Entries

None

Current Watch List

FTO - $58.37 - Frontier Oil Corp

Frontier Oil Corporation (Frontier) is an independent energy company engaged in crude oil refining and wholesale marketing of refined petroleum products. The Company operates refineries (the Refineries) located in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and El Dorado, Kansas, with a total annual average crude oil capacity of 162,000 barrels per day (bpd). Both of the Refineries are complex refineries, capable of processing heavier, less expensive types of crude oil, while producing gasoline, diesel fuel and other high-margin refined products. Frontier purchases crude oil to be refined and markets refined petroleum products, including various grades of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt and other by-products. The Company focuses its marketing efforts in the Rocky Mountain region, which includes the states of Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Utah, and in the Plains States region, which includes the states of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Breakdown trigger $56.00
BUY Oct $60 Call FTO-JL

 


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