Option Investor

Weekly Newsletter, Saturday, 04/14/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Commentary
  2. Changes in Portfolio
  3. Portfolio Listing
  4. New Plays
  5. Existing Plays
  6. Watch List

Leaps Trader Commentary

Gasoline Induced High

No, I am not sniffing gasoline fumes to obtain a very deadly high. The shortage of gasoline fumes in refiners tanks is a major reason oil prices have rebounded so strongly and may even reach a new high soon. In Wednesday's inventory report gasoline levels declined by 5.5 million barrels to 199.7 million barrels. This is nearly 10 mb under the 5-year average for this period and represents a -27 mb decline over recent weeks.

The reason for the decline is two fold. The first is a series of refinery outages due to fires, breakdowns or maintenance that have caused a significant drop in gasoline production. The second reason is a +2.5% increase in year over year demand over the last four weeks. Sounds like the perfect storm for gasoline prices. As refiners comeback online they are hesitant to buy oil at the current price of $63.63 on hopes it will decline over the next couple weeks. They do not want to go into full production and fill their tanks with expensive oil that translates into expensive gas. They would rather roll the dice and try to buy the next dip to capitalize on the high crack spreads as we edge closer to summer. Crack spreads have only been this high three times before. Those occurred in the spring of 2004 and 2006 and the post hurricane spike in Sept 2005.

The refinery problems have created a storage glut at the Cushing Oklahoma terminal. When the Valero Sunray refinery shutdown in mid-February oil began backing up in the pipelines. Sunray can process 170,000 bpd or 1.2 mb per week. That equates to nearly 8 million barrels of unused crude backing up in pipelines and storage levels upstream from Sunray. Storage facilities at Cushing are at maximum levels and there is no place to put incoming pipeline deliveries. This is creating a spot glut and depressing prices in Oklahoma. The price of Brent crude which normally trades at a discount to our West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently selling for $5 over the price for WTI. This is an extremely rare occurrence. The decline in US prices due to the Cushing glut pushed WTI down to $61.35 earlier in the week. An astute trader could have purchased oil for under $62 and sold an August futures contract for $68. The catch is the cost to store the oil until delivery. Tank farms don't store oil for free and that cost of storage has to be taken into account in the case of Cushing. Suppliers desperate to move oil down the pipe may discount their price to make it attractive for users to take their oil now. The alternative for the supplier is to pay for storage and wait for the refineries to recover. Unfortunately there is no more storage at Cushing so suppliers are caught between discounting their oil or shutting down the wells until the pipeline can accept more oil.

Refiners and suppliers could just import more gasoline until the problems are corrected but imported gasoline is priced based on Brent Crude. With Brent $5 over WTI that means the gasoline is expensive compared to gasoline produced here. Suppliers don't want to load up on high priced gasoline only to have prices fall when the refiners return to full speed. Gasoline imports normally run about 1.1 mbpd but fell to 953,000 bpd last week for this very reason. Driving season is still six weeks away and everyone is hoping for the situations to be resolved before then. This will continue to pressure WTI prices until the Cushing storage glut has been relieved. Bottom line; expect more volatility in the price of oil over the next six weeks.

Why are natural gas prices so high in the middle of spring? Because spring was put on hold for a continuing series of blizzards. Cold fronts, snow, freezing rain and very high winds have returned to most of the US east of the Rockies. A winter storm warning was issued for this weekend for quite a few states east of Chicago. Gas consumption continues to be high as heating demand continues. Helping keep gas prices high is the normal nuclear plant refueling cycle. Nuclear plants plan to refuel during spring when the weather is nice and electricity demand is low. These are complicated procedures and they can't be postponed for the next lull in the weather. They are scheduled long in advance and the return of cold weather just happened to coincide with the refueling process. This causes gas and coal fired electric generation plants to run near full capacity supplying power to the grid to offset the nuclear plant downtime.

Natural gas supplies have fallen from their historically high levels last fall to -7.1% below April 2006 levels. Currently 1,592 BCF is in storage and even though that is +22.7% over the 5-year average it is depleting to levels that cause mild concern. If the cold front set to hit the eastern US this weekend lingers we could see another drop in levels next week. If the summer turns as hot as some have predicted even more gas will be used for electrical cooling. This prospect and the continued winter demand rate has rescued gas from returning to $7. We are also headed into hurricane season and they would like to get as much gas into storage as possible in case of another prolonged hurricane induced outage.

AAs earnings season gets underway the rest of the market will be paying close attention to companies like Yahoo or Google. Our earnings cycle is normally 2-3 weeks behind the rest of the market. We will see a scattered few report over the next couple weeks headed by SLB next Friday but we are going to have to be patient for the majority of earnings to appear. With oil prices hovering around $60 for most of Q1 we should see decent earnings from most companies. The ones we need to be worried about are the service companies. We heard last quarter that gas drilling had slowed due to high storage levels and lower gas prices. This warning came from the service companies who were at risk for lower revenue from a pause in the drilling cycle. Specifically HAL and NBR. We want to hear how that has progressed with gas prices hovering just under $8.

Weatherford International (WFT), a $17 billion service company operating in 100 countries, spiked over the last couple days on rumors of a pending buyout. Halliburton was the rumored acquirer. Option activity was huge and could indicate the rumor had some basis in fact. Normal option volume is around 3,000 contracts per day. Call volume on Friday in the April/May strikes was more than 29,300 contracts or 10 times normal. Weatherford said last week that conditions in North America were improving and would continue to improve the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see if HAL wants to pickup WFT's business and positive outlook.

The Wall Street Journal, long an opponent of Peak Oil, ran a front page story last week that laid out all the signs of peak oil without ever mentioning those two words. Some of the important points from the WSJ article follow. The demise of Mexico's Cantarell field means that Mexico may be an importer of oil within eight years. They go on to say, "The demise of Cantarell highlights a global issue: Nearly a quarter of the world's daily oil output of 85 mbpd is pumped from the biggest 20 fields and many of those fields, discovered decades ago, could soon follow in Cantarell's footsteps." "Two decades ago about a dozen fields produced more than a million barrels per day. Now there are only four and one of them is Cantarell." "The future of two others discovered more than 50 years ago, Saudi Arabia's Ghawar and Kuwait's Burgan, are showing signs of maturity." Evidently some of Peak Oil's harshest critics, including the WSJ, are starting to crack.

The heads of Shell and Total both said last week that "the days of so called easy oil are over making it harder to meet demand without complicated and expensive projects. Shell produced twice as much oil as it found last year.

A recent report from the European based Energy Watch Group believes that Peak coal will be reached within two decades. Since America has been called the Saudi Arabia of coal I read this review with great interest. According to their research the US peaked in high-quality coal production in 1990. Production of subbituminous coal in Wyoming more than compensated for this decline in terms of volume and the trend can continue for another 15 years. However, due to the lower energy content it requires more coal to provide the same BTU output and the trend is continuing to decline. Large reserves of coal in states of decreasing production may never be mined. Like stranded oil it requires far too much energy and effort to extract them than they are worth. These reserves are being carried on the books and give a false estimate of total available reserves. The group predicts volume coal production in the US will peak between 2020 and 2030. This is the first research I have read on coal depletion in the US that did not assume we had a century of supply remaining. I will have to dig into this and see how it compares to other estimates. It is definitely controversial at this point!

In the truth is stranger than fiction department uranium jumped +$13 a pound this week to $130. Cameco lost -$2 on the news.

May crude futures terminate trading on April 20th so expect some additional volatility.

Jim Brown

May Crude Futures Chart - Daily

May Gas Futures Chart - Daily

May Gasoline Chart - Daily


Changes in Portfolio

New Energy Plays
TS $48.39 Tenaris

New Non-Energy Plays


Dropped Plays


New Watch List Plays Triggered


Portfolio Listing & Top Picks

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

With most energy stocks up strongly over the last few weeks I really don't want to add any at these levels. However, Tenaris is not a true energy play but is in the energy sector. The chart shows an impending breakout over $48.

TS - $48.39 - Tenaris

Tenaris is a supplier of steel pipe and tubing for the energy industry. They have been a very active acquirer picking up Maverick Tube (MCK) last October and the acquisition of Hydril is currently in progress. Lone Star Steel (LSS) was recently acquired by US Steel and the remaining players in the sector are dwindling fast. TS appears to have shaken off the volatility following the Maverick acquisition and found resistance at $48. That resistance is about to break with Friday's close at $48.39. We could see significant acceleration over $50 as the combined companies get up to speed.

Company Info:

Tenaris S.A. is a global manufacturer and supplier of tubular products and services used in the drilling, completion and production of oil and gas and a supplier of tubular products and services used in process and power plants and in specialized industrial and automotive applications. As of September 30, 2006, Tenaris operated under four segments: Seamless, Welded and Other Metallic Products, Energy and Other. On January 31, 2006, Siat S.A., a subsidiary of Tenaris, completed its acquisition of the welded pipe assets and facilities located in Villa Constitucion, province of Santa Fe, Argentina. On October 5, 2006, the Company acquired Maverick Tube Corporation and its subsidiaries. On December 1, 2006, the Company sold a significant ownership in Dalmine Energie. As of December 31, 2006, Tenaris operates under three business segments: Tubes, Projects and Other.


BUY Sept $50 Call TSW-IJ currently $3.80 Stop TS @ $45.50

Play Updates

Existing Plays

The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.


BHP - $50.41 +.93 - BHP Billiton

BHP continued to push higher despite a California rejection of their proposed LNG terminal 14 miles off the coast. The floating terminal would have supplied 10% of California's natural gas needs but the state said the potential environmental impact was unacceptable. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00


CCJ - $47.32 +1.17 - Cameco

Cameco gave back a couple dollars early in the week but rebounded to close with a gain. Uranium prices spiked +$19 for the week to something in the $130 range. Uranium prices have risen +60% in the last 12 months and it is expected to go higher. With over 130 plants in the planning stages worldwide the demand for uranium is going to soar. CIBC downgraded CCJ on the basis of price and recommended investors take profits. CIBC also upgraded USEC (USU) despite an +80% rise in price over the last six months. Somebody at CIBC has been drinking their lunch. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80


PTR - $116.42 -1.69 - Petrochina

PetroChina gave back a buck for the week but remains very near the 6-week high. I raised the stop on the short put. No news.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown targets:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th
$105 1/2 position - not yet triggered

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70

Cost reduction play:
Position: Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, stop $114


SNP - $91.75 +3.68 - Sinopec

Another stellar week for Sinopec despite a -$3 loss on Friday. Profits for 2006 rose +30% to $7 billion. Sinopec just signed a deal with McDonalds to install drive thru outlets at its pick of the refiners 28,000 service stations. What a daunting task. Joe you and Bill go look at the 28,000 filling stations and report back on which ones would be best for selling a big mac and fries. How many miles would you have to drive to inspect 28,000 stations? No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown target $82.50 hit on 2/27

Position: OCT $85 Call SNP-JQ @ $7.00


CHK $33.69 +1.18 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $30.50 **

As a trader I really want to short CHK next week. $34 has been long term resistance since Sept 2005. CHK has made the round trip from $28 to $34 numerous times and here we are back at $34. However, with the CEO buying stock like he wants to take it private I have a gut feeling this time may be different. Of course I will kick myself if it is not. All the press is very positive and they stress that CHK is rapidly drilling out their reserves to bring them into the proven category. That could triple their proven reserves today of 9 TCF. I am going to hold my nose and remain long in hopes that a move over $34 will produce significant short covering. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: May 4th

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put: none


MRO $101.99 -0.80 - Marathon Oil

MRO is trying very hard to break that $103 resistance but it just can't seem to make it. MRO reported a new discovery in the Gulf in 2900 feet of water. They own 100% of the well. They also warned on production and sales for Q1. They will report earnings on May 1st. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: May 1st

Current recommendation: Buy at $85

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired


HES - $57.87 +1.58 - Hess Corporation
(Formerly (AHC))

Hess hit a new historic high on Friday despite being downgraded by Lehman earlier in the week. Lehman said Hess and Murphy Oil traded at a premium to their assets. Ironically the Street.com rated them the very next day as one of their Top-10 All-Around Value Stocks. Fitch raised their rating from stable to positive citing improved performance and stable debt levels. It takes all kinds of investors to make a market.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 25th

Earnings: Jan 31st, $1.13, vs $1.44 in Q4/05, 230% replacement

Current recommendation: Buy at $47

11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35, profit stop $46


BTU - $46.18 +2.44 - Peabody Energy

FBR upgraded BTU on Monday and the stock remained strong all week. Merrill said in a note to investors on Thursday they were buying Consol Energy and Peabody Energy citing expected high demand for coal-fired electricity this summer. Coal supplies are tightening and Foundation Coal shutdown an unprofitable mine the prior week. On Friday BTU declared a 6-cent dividend. No other news.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 19th

Current recommendation: Buy at $37.50

10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50


SLB $76.00 +4.16 Schlumberger

SLB caught fire this week after breaking out of resistance the prior week. SLB reports earnings next Friday and they are expected to be strong. No news ahead of earnings. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 20th

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired


SUN $74.75 +0.58 - Sunoco

SUN hit a new 6-month high but failed to capitalize on the move. It is holding the high ground but can't seem to seize the day. No news.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: May 3rd

Earnings: Jan-31st, -57% $1.00 vs $.96 analyst est.

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired


VLO $68.40 +2.39 - Valero Energy

Valero hit a new 8-month high on news it was planning to restart one half of the McKee Texas plant this month. The other half will not come back online until late this year. This restart will help the crude glut in Cushing OK but a planned shutdown of the Conoco refinery in Borger Texas will shut in 146,000 bpd while COP upgrades and connects a 25,000 bpd coker at the facility. This will further increase the problems at Cushing. The new 8-month high comes less than two weeks after Cramer recommended a sell on Valero as "refining has run its course." No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 24th

Current recommendation: Buy at $50, stop at $45

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired


DO - $83.50 +1.320 - Diamond Offshore ** Stop $73.00 **

DO is creeping upward with resistance now at $85.00 and it appears a breakout will eventually appear. A move over $85 should produce some real speed. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 26th

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

Non-Energy Positions

BZH - $29.31 +0.67 - Beazer Homes ** LEAP PUT **

Dip buying provided an early week lift followed by good news about reduced cancellations at a smaller builder. It may have provided a temporary lift but the suits and legal problems did not go away.

Beazer is being flooded with suits, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price. These types of suits appear whenever bad news appears about a company but in this case it looks grim.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: April 26th

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10

No stop loss

Leaps Trader Watch List

Dropped Entries


New Watch List Entries
HAL Halliburton
TOL Toll Brothers

Current Watch List

UPL - Ultra Petroleum

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (Ultra) is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused primarily in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. As of December 31, 2005, Ultra owned interests in approximately 148,007 gross acres in Wyoming covering approximately 230 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 330 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 53% of the 330 gross wells. Its domestic operations are focused on developing and expanding a tight gas sand project located in the Green River Basin in southwest Wyoming. During the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company's Wyoming production was approximately 87.4% of total oil and natural gas production on a thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (MCFE) basis and 98.5% of the Company's estimated net proved reserves were in Wyoming on an MCFE basis.

Breakdown target $50

Buy JAN 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL


ATI - Allegheny Tech

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) is a diversified specialty metals producer. The Company operates in three segments: High Performance Metals, Flat-Rolled Products and Engineered Products. The High Performance Metals segment produces, converts and distributes a range of high-performance alloys, including nickel and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, zirconium, hafnium, niobium, nickel-titanium and their related alloys. The Flat-Rolled Products segment produces, converts and distributes stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, and titanium and titanium-based alloys. The Engineered Products segment produces tungsten powder, tungsten heavy alloys, tungsten carbide materials and carbide cutting tools. ATI products are used in various markets. These markets include aerospace, defense, chemical process industry, oil and gas, electrical energy and medical.

Breakdown target $106.00

Call spread:
BUY JAN-09 $110 LEAP Call OYG-AX


TEX - Terex Corp

Terex Corporation (Terex) is a diversified global manufacturer of capital equipment delivering solutions for the construction, infrastructure, quarry, mining, shipping, transportation, refining and utility industries. The Company operates in five business segments: Terex Construction, Terex Cranes, Terex Aerial Work Platforms, Terex Materials Processing & Mining, and Terex Roadbuilding, Utility Products and Other. The Company's products are manufactured at plants in North America, Europe, Australia, Asia and South America, and are sold primarily through dealers and distributors worldwide. During the year ended December 31, 2005, it acquired Halco Holdings Limited and its affiliates, and Power Legend International Limited and its affiliates. It entered into a joint venture with North Hauler Joint Stock Company Limited to produce high-capacity surface mining trucks in China. It has a 50%-ownership interest in Sichuan Changjiang Engineering Crane Co., Ltd.

Breakdown target $66.00

Call spread


TSO - Tesoro

We were stopped out of our highly profitable TSO position and now we are looking to get back in with a different strike on the next dip in refiners. Unfortunately there has been no dip.

Company info:

Tesoro Corporation (Tesoro) is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer with two operating segments: refining, which is engaged in refining crude oil and other feedstocks at its six refineries in the western and mid-continental United States and selling refined products in bulk and wholesale markets (refining), and retail, which is engaged in selling motor fuels and convenience products in the retail market through its 460 branded retail stations in 18 states. Through its refining segment, the Company produces refined products, primarily gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, jet fuel, diesel fuel and heavy fuel oils for sale to a variety of commercial customers in the western and mid-continental United States. Tesoro's retail segment distributes motor fuels through a network of retail stations, primarily under the Tesoro and Mirastar brands.

Breakdown target: $100

BUY 2009 $110 LEAP Call ZGC-AB


HAL - Halliburton

Halliburton Company provides a variety of services, products, maintenance, engineering and construction to energy, industrial, and governmental customers. Its six business segments are: Production Optimization, Fluid Systems, Drilling and Formation Evaluation, Digital and Consulting Solutions, Energy and Chemicals, and Government and Infrastructure. It refers to the combination of Production Optimization, Fluid Systems, Drilling and Formation Evaluation, and Digital and Consulting Solutions segments as its Energy Services Group (ESG). Halliburton Company’s Energy and Chemicals, and Government and Infrastructure segments are part of KBR, Inc. (KBR). As of December 31, 2006, the Company held an approximate 81% interest in KBR, Inc. In January 2007, Halliburton Company acquired Ultraline Services Corporation, a division of Savanna Energy Services Corp. In April 2007, the Company completed the separation of KBR. As a result, the two companies are separate and independent of each other.

HAL has completed the KBR spinoff and I don't think traders know how to value HAL yet. Options are cheap and we have plenty of time to wait for an entry.

Either entry cancels the other.

Breakdown target: $30
Buy 2009 $35 LEAP Call VHW-AG

Breakout target: $35
Buy 2009 $40 LEAP Call VHW-AH


TOL - Toll Brothers

Toll Brothers, Inc. designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It is also involved, directly and through joint ventures, in projects where it is building or converting existing rental apartment buildings into high, mid and low-rise luxury homes. It caters to move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified and second-home buyers in 21 states of the United States. At October 31, 2006, the Company operated from 398 communities containing approximately 31,910 home sites that it owned or controlled through options. Of the 31,910 home sites, 25,377 were available for sale and 6,533 were under agreement of sale but not yet delivered. Of the 398 communities, 300 were offering homes for sale, 14 had been offering homes for sale but were temporarily closed, and 84 were sold out but not all homes had been completed and delivered.

Toll is relatively free of the subprime stigma. Toll deals in luxury homes for an older population. Strong support at $27 has been holding since early March. Options are VERY cheap. Fitch ratings said on Friday they felt the housing market was bottoming and gave Toll its highest rating of the group. We are going to buy a breakout of the current range of a washout to 52-week support.

Either entry cancels the other.

Breakout target: $28.50
Buy 2009 $35 LEAP QTY-AG

Breakdown target: $24.00
Buy 2009 $30 LEAP QTY-AF


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