Option Investor

Weekly Newsletter, Friday, 06/29/2007

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Table of Contents

  1. Commentary
  2. Changes in Portfolio
  3. Portfolio Listing
  4. New Plays
  5. Existing Plays
  6. Watch List

Leaps Trader Commentary

$70, Going Once, Twice

On Thursday crude prices spent a lot of time over $70 only to retreat at the close. On Friday during the cash session crude never traded under $70 with a high of $71.06. Ironically crude inventory levels are at a ten-year high. The last time crude inventories were this high was 1998 and crude was trading under $20.

Professional trades were saying a close over $70.40 on Friday was very bullish and $80 was being tossed around like it was a guaranteed target before the summer is out. That would depend mostly on the hurricane season, which so far has been devoid of any material storms. Prices are trading up on the expectations for a disruptive storm and eventually traders are going to get nervous being long if one does not show.

Over the last 100 years the peak week for storms comes around Sept-10th. There are very few until early August and they drop off quickly after mid September. Oil traders know these facts and that puts a tie limit on being long in large positions.

Hurricane Season Probability Chart

We have other factors influencing oil prices such as the problems with Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, production from Mexico and drastically low refinery utilization. However, with oil inventory levels at 10-year highs it is the storm probability that is moving prices higher. Our strongest demand peak is in July and that is about as far as we can stretch the gains before volatility arrives. Everybody is watching the same calendar and their nervousness will increase with time and the size of their positions.

We entered most of our energy positions back last fall when the normal drop in prices arrived. That was the plan and it worked almost perfectly. The game plan today is to exit those energy positions in late July or early August if prices begin to roll over. We will enter again in the fall when prices correct. With inventory levels so high in 2007 there could easily be a correction back to $60 or even lower. It all depends on storms, Opec and intestinal fortitude of existing oil traders. If a correction appears it could be very sharp and swift like the drop we saw last January when the current August contract fell from $67 to $54 in only a matter of days. We definitely want to be out of our positions if prices start to crater again. We were stopped on four plays this week when that big downdraft occurred on Wednesday. ATI, BTU, HES and TEX. We also triggered on four entries on CNQ, GSF, NOV and RIMM.

There was a concentrated sell program across all markets on Wednesday that took all out stocks down to monthly lows. It did not seem to be related specifically to energy with miners, metals, machinery, builders, etc, all taking the same hit. This kind of volatility is typical of markets at their highs and various funds rotating out of positions even when the major indexes are having a good run. It could be a symptom of what we may face next week. Watch those stops!

I heard on Friday that 1.4 million families were planning on being on the road next week for vacations. That seems light to me but I don't track that number. Demand for the last seven weeks has been stronger than the same period in 2005 and gasoline prices are well over $3 for most of that period. Demand is not slowing despite the number of hybrids Toyota is selling.

Production from Mexico's Cantarell field, the world's 3rd largest, fell again in May to 1.58 mbpd. This was a 15% decline from the 1.86 mbpd produced in May 2006. By the end of 2008 production is expected to decline to only 1.0 mbpd. The rapid decline is a result of enhanced recovery techniques that accelerated oil output over the last decade but sacrificed longevity in the process. Multiply this problem across most of the world's fields and you will get a picture of what is ahead of us. May output from all of Mexico fell -6.6% from 2006 levels.

The worlds major oil companies failed to replace 100% of produced reserves for the third consecutive year according to Bear Stearns. Reserve replacement in 2006 was 91% compared to 92% in 2005. This is a clear indication of coming problems but nobody is listening. If you can't find as much oil in as year as the oil you produced you are going to eventually run out.

Exxon blamed consumers on the rising price of gasoline. Exxon's CEO, Rex Tillerson, said at a their recent annual meeting, "The industry is producing record amounts of gasoline but the consumer is also burning record amounts." Consumption is about 1.5% higher so far in 2007 than 2006. That is an increase of 4,334,375 barrels of gasoline per month or 144,500 bpd. That is the equivalent output of a new refinery each year.

Keep watching the weather because it is the only force that can keep prices moving higher from here. Keep watching the stops on the individual plays because we don't want to get caught wishing we had sold if a correction appears.

Jim Brown

August Crude Futures Chart - Daily

August Gas Futures Chart - Daily

July Gasoline Chart - RBOB Daily


Changes in Portfolio

New Energy Plays


New Non-Energy Plays


Dropped Plays

New Watch List Plays Triggered
RIMM $200 Research in Motion  
NOV $104.70 National Oilwell ** Stop Loss $97.50 **
GSF $72.11 GlobalSantaFe ** Stop Loss $66 **
CNQ $66.33 Canadian National Resources ** Stop Loss $61 **

Portfolio Listing & Top Picks

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

RIMM - $200 - Research in Motion

No we were not triggered on Friday. Our entry came on Monday when RIMM fell to $168. The Friday spike was an outstanding development and I am sure nobody is complaining. We are showing a $14 profit on the call spread but once the spike cools the premium will decay on that $230 call and our profit will increase. The long $180 call is now $20 in the money and the premium should not decay significantly unless RIMM dives.

RIMM posted a +73% spike in revenues and 1.2 million new subscribers for the quarter. You may have noticed that AT&T has been running a Blackberry Curve ad behind almost every iPhone ad that Apple was running. This smart marketing by RIMM/AT&T produced a huge wave of new buyers from those who did not want to wait for an expensive and unproven iPhone.

Company info:

Research In Motion Limited (RIM) is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software and services that support wireless network standards, the Company provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to time-sensitive information, including e-mail, phone, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications. RIM technology also enables an array of third-party developers and manufacturers to enhance their products and services with wireless connectivity to data. RIM's primary revenue stream is generated by the BlackBerry wireless solution, comprised of wireless devices, software and service. Other revenue includes accessories, non-warranty repairs, and non-recurring engineering development contracts (NRE).

Breakdown trigger: $168.00 hit 6/25

Call spread:
Position: LONG 2009 $180 LEAP Call VHO-AP @ $32.60
Position: SHORT 2009 $230 LEAP Call VHO-AF @ $10.47


NOV - $104.70 - National Oilwell *** Stop Loss $97.50 ***

National has been on a very strong ramp higher for five months. I have wanted to buy it on a pullback but missed the April dip. Wednesday's dip to our trigger point at $100, over -$8 off the prior Friday high, gave us a perfect entry if NOV is going to continue its move higher. It also gives us a clear exit point if that move fails.

The symbol was listed incorrectly last Sunday and I sent an email to subscribers when the trigger was hit informing of the correct symbol.

Company Info:

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company operates in three segments: Rig Technology, Petroleum Services & Supplies, and Distribution Services. The Rig Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services complete systems for the drilling, completion and servicing of oil and gas wells. The Petroleum Services & Supplies segment provides a variety of consumable goods and services used to drill, complete, remediate and workover oil and gas wells, service pipelines, flowlines and other oilfield tubular goods. The Distribution Services segment provides maintenance, repair and operating supplies, and spare parts. In March 2006, NOV acquired Soil Recovery A/S. In November 2006, it acquired Rolligon Ltd. In December 2006, it acquired 87% of NQL Energy Services Inc.

Breakdown trigger: $100 hit 6/27
(no leaps)

Position: Feb 2008 $110 Call NOV-BB @ $10.50

National Oilwell Entry


GSF - $72.11 - GlobalSantaFe *** Stop Loss $66 ***

GSF dipped to support at $70 and triggered our entry on Wednesday before rebounding very close to a historic high on Thursday. GSF is a driller like RIG and DO and may be a little more volatile but has a very nice trend.

Company Info:

GlobalSantaFe Corporation is an offshore oil and gas drilling contractor, owning or operating a fleet of 59 marine drilling rigs. During the year ended December 31, 206, it commenced construction of an additional semisubmersible. The Company also has a jackup rig, the GSF High Island III. GlobalSantaFe Corporation provides offshore oil and gas contract drilling services to the oil and gas industry worldwide on a daily rate (dayrate) basis. The Company also provides oil and gas drilling management services on either a dayrate or completed-project, fixed-price (turnkey) basis, as well as drilling engineering and drilling project management services, and it participate in oil and gas exploration and production activities.

Breakdown target: $70 Hit 6/27

Position: 2010 $80 LEAP Call WEJ-AP @ $10.10


CNQ ended a weeklong bout of selling with the Thursday dip and a +$4 rebound. We need this rebound to continue. It has no risk to offshore or overseas events.

Company Info:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company head-quartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The Company's operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea and Offshore West Africa. In November 2006, the Company completed the acquisition of Anadarko Canada Corporation from Anadarko Petroleum Corporation. The Company's crude oil and natural gas activities are conducted in three geographic segments: North America, North Sea and Offshore West Africa. These activities relate to the exploration, development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas. The Company's Horizon Project has been classified as a separate segment. Midstream activities include the Company's pipeline operations and an electricity co-generation system.

Breakdown target: $65 Hit 6/25

Position: Jan 2009 $70 LEAP Call OKR-AN @ $9.50


Play Updates

Existing Plays

NOK - 28.11 +0.35 Nokia

Nokia bounced with the RIMM news and the iPhone release but not with any conviction. Its brothers were claiming all the fame last week. If you read my Option investor commentary you saw where the e61 smart phone from Nokia has dozen of features the iPhone does not have. Once the Apple hype has worn off Nokia features will win the day and Nokia has over a third of the market share around the globe where nearly 2 billion phones are in service. Apple will be happy if they can sell only ten million over the next year. The difference in scope should be clear.

For initial commentary see June 24th newsletter

Breakdown trigger: $28.00 Hit 6/21

Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Calls WIK-AF @ $4.90


BRS - $49.55 -1.66 Bristow Group

Bristow held its ground all week until Friday's close. The CEO had a great interview on CNBC on Tuesday. Other than that there was no news and no change in the play. I think this was just profit taking from the May/June run.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Bristow has no LEAPS

Breakout trigger: $50.50 hit 6/14

Position: Dec $50 Calls BRS-LJ @ $5.00


MDR - $83.12 +1.79 - McDermott Intl

That was a very nice rebound from the Wednesday lows at $76.50. On Tuesday MDR announced it had won a pipeline contract in Vietnam. On Wednesday they announced another pipeline contract in Qatar. The contract was for two 38" diameter pipelines totaling 130 kilometers in length and two 22" connecting pipelines. The pipelines will connect three well platforms with onshore facilities.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Breakout trigger: $78.00 Hit 6/11

Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYZ-AP @ $9.80


HOS - $38.76 -2.49 - Hornbeck Offshore *** Stop $36.50 ***

It was not a good week for Hornbeck with a sharp decline starting with a drop on Monday. There was no news for the week. I added a stop just in case the drop continues.

For initial commentary see June 10th newsletter

Breakdown trigger: $39.00 hit 6/08

Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZIG-AH @ $8.00


HDY - $3.14 - +0.11 Hyperdynamics Corp

No news and no movement. Still waiting for the contract to be ratified.

The Guinea National Assembly is going to ratify the HDY contract for revenue sharing before the current special session closes. This contract when ratified will become a "Project of Law" or super contract that cannot in normal circumstances be broken. Once the contract is ratified HDY will begin a rapid development phase on its 31,000 square mile lease.

Once the contract is ratified I doubt we will see $3 again. Last chance!

For initial commentary see June 3rd newsletter.

Position: HDY stock @ $2.44


TSO - $57.15 -4.29 - Tesoro *** Stop Loss $52.50 ***

That was really painful! Citigroup downgraded TSO and VLO to "sell" and SUN to "hold" saying valuations on current strong margins were overdone. Citigroup expects margins to shrink as summer progresses and gasoline imports pick up. TSO aided the drop when its chief economist said on Wednesday that gasoline prices should keep dropping through mid July as refinery utilization rises. With help like that TSO took a nasty dive on Wednesday and barely held its gains by Friday's close.

I am adding a stop loss to protect what is left of our profits, which is still a considerable amount. I targeted support at just over $53 and put the stop just below. If that is too far to fall for your comfort level I suggest exiting now.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 3rd, $1.67 vs 61 cents in comparison qtr

Breakout target: $55 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34


ATW $68.62 -1.14 - Atwood Oceanics

Atwood closed back near its highs on Friday after the sharp drop on Wednesday. ATW is a potential takeover candidate. No news and no change in play.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 8th est $1.08, actual $1.01

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50


BHP - $59.75 +0.28 - BHP Billiton *** Stop Loss $56 ***

BHP fell -$3 on Wednesday on European weakness in mining issues. It was quickly bought and BHP was right back at the highs on Friday. I am adding a stop to preserve profits in the case of another dip.

Prior commentary:

BHP continues to rise on speculation that China could be eying a takeout of BHP to help fuel their metal needs. China recently formed a $237 billion investment company and BHP is thought to be a target of that investment. China has a history of buying commodity assets to prevent other countries from having access. China is consuming large amounts of metals and ores and taking BHP's assets off the market would be a major achievment for China and a serious problem for the rest of the world. BHP has mining assets in everything from coal, uranium, various metals and oil. With a marker cap of $163 billion it would be a big bite for China but entirely doable.

No earnings date announced.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: No date announced.

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00


CCJ - $50.74 -2.41 - Cameco *** Stop Loss $47.50 ***

CCJ continued to lose ground from its recent high and that loss accelerated into Wednesday's open. The drop to $46.75 was nearly $10 off its high from the prior week. No news to account for the drop. I added a stop to protect profits if the plunge continues.

In April Cameco projected sales would be 50% higher in 2007.

Worldwide there are 24 new reactors being built, 41 on the drawing boards and 113 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 50% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-27th, -47% due to revenue timing

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80


PTR - $148.68 -0.58 - Petrochina *** Stop Loss $142.50 ***

PTR was one of the better behaved positions over the last week. We saw the Wednesday dip but it was minimal and quickly bought. I am putting a stop just under that dip to protect our nearly $35 in profits.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25


CHK $34.60 -1.62 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $33.50 **

Simple math. Gas plunged to levels not seen since May-2005 and gas stocks imploded. Maintain the stop at $33.50 but don't close the put if the LEAP is stopped. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th, 87 cents vs est of 78 cents

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28


MRO $59.96 -2.16 - Marathon Oil *** Stop Loss $57.50 ***

MRO continued its post split depression decline and hit a low of $58 on Wednesday on the refiner downgrades from Citigroup. I am putting a stop just under Wednesday's low to protect profits. No other news.

No change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings: May 1st, $2.04 vs est $1.93

2:1 Stock Split June 18th, record date May 23rd

Current recommendation: Buy above $60

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25
Post split: (2) 2009 $50 LEAP Calls VXM-AJ @ $6.62

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired


HES - $58.96 -0.76 - Hess Corporation *** Stopped $57 ***
(Formerly (AHC))

HES continues to under perform the rest of the sector and hit our stop on the Wednesday drop. HES also said it stopped drilling at its Pony No 2 well on the Green Canyon Block 468 due to rig inspection requirements. Drilling will resume in late September. Diamond Offshore will be responsible for costs incurred.

For initial commentary see Nov-4th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-25th, $1.17 vs $2.22

Current recommendation: Hold

11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40
Cost adjustment May puts +2.15, cost = $10.55
Exit 6/26 @ $12.70, +2.15

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35 expired
May $55 Put IGG-QK @ $.80 expired


BTU - $48.38 -0.80 - Peabody Energy *** Stopped $48 ***

BTU continued to crash on news that coal-to-liquids produced twice the emissions of regular refining. The presidential politics got quite a run out of that news.

For initial commentary see Oct-22nd newsletter.

Earnings schedule: April 19th, -32% on special items

Current recommendation: hold

10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70
Exit 6/25 @ $10.20, +0.50

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50


SLB $84.94 -4.26 Schlumberger *** Stop Loss $83 ***

SLB held all week to plunge at the close on Friday. Since the prior Friday was a new historic high the -$4 looks worse than it actually was. Maintain the stop at $83.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 20th

Current recommendation: hold

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30
Cost update for expired June put +1.15 = $11.45

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15, expired


SUN $79.68 -4.07 - Sunoco *** Stop Loss $76 ***

That was close. The Citigroup downgrade sent SUN to a low of 76.26 on Wednesday and our stop was $76. No other news. Maintain the stop at $76.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: May 3rd, 70 cents vs 59 cents in comparison qtr

Current recommendation: Hold

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90
Cost update expired June put +0.85 = $16.75

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents, expired.

Non-Energy Positions

TEX - $81.30 -2.20 Terex Corp *** Stopped $80.00 ***

TEX finally broke support on Wednesday and triggered our stop at $80. After more than a month of sideways performance I am not sad to see it go.

For initial commentary see May-13th newsletter

Breakout target $81.00 Hit 5/07

Position: Jan-09 $90 LEAP Call VXQ-AR @ $16.40, exit $14.10 -2.30


ATI - $104.88 -1.89 - Allegheny Tech *** Stopped $105 ***

The Nucor warning in the prior week continued to weigh on all the metals and ATI broke support at $106 on Tuesday to hit our stop at $105. The spread could have been closed for almost exactly a breakeven when the stop was hit.

For initial commentary see May-5th newsletter

Breakdown target $110.00 hit 04/30

Call spread:
LONG JAN-09 $110 LEAP Call OYG-AX @ $21.50, exit $20.00
SHORT JAN-09 $140 LEAP Call ZKG-AH @ $9.50, exit $7.83


BZH - $24.67 -4.77 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $28.75 ***

Beazer was the best performer for the week with the stock moving nearly $5 in our direction. The breakdown came when Beazer admitted firing its Chief Accounting Officer for attempting to destroy documents pertaining to the current multi-jurisdictional regulator probe. Since you would not need to destroy documents unless there was something incriminating the odds are good Beazer has more troubles ahead. Citigroup also downgraded the stock because Beazer will not abandon deposits on land options as other builders have done. The analyst said Beazer will likely take the belated write offs and show a longer period before returning to profitability because of it. That of course assumes that regulators don't shut them down.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings: April 26th, -1.12 vs +2.35 in the comparison quarter.

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10

Leaps Trader Watch List

Dropped Entries


New Watch List Entries

Current Watch List

UPL - Ultra Petroleum

This is an unbelievable opportunity in progress. For some reason UPL has fallen out of favor even though production is rising and they are the lowest cost producer in North America. Cash flow in Q1 increased +15% on a +42% increase in production to record levels. They closed 2007 with more than 10 TCF of gas reserves in Wyoming and Utah. They have a 17 year drilling program on those assets alone. They raised guidance for 2007 to 114 BCFE for a +24% increase over 2006. Estimates for 2008 are 135 BCFE and 160 BCFE for 2009. They added $250 million to a $1 billion share repurchase agreement on April 30th. This company is printing money but suddenly the stock has fallen out of favor with investors. I would love to be a buyer at $50. Falling gas prices may give us a chance.

Company Info:

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (Ultra) is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are primarily in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. As of December 31, 2006, Ultra owned interests in approximately 147,917 gross (79,566 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 230 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 464 gross producing wells in this area and is an operator of 50% of the 464 gross wells. During the year ended December 31, 2006, domestic production was approximately 89.5% of the Company's total oil and natural gas production on a thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Mcfe) basis and 99% of the Company's estimated net proved reserves were domestic on a Mcfe basis.

Breakdown target: $50

Buy Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL


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