Table of Contents
Leaps Trader Commentary
That was Boone Pickens message to the assembled multitudes at the ASPO conference in Houston this week. After listening to several days of various speakers dancing around the question of when we will see peak oil, Pickens closed his comments by answering that question from the crowd. With the speaker just before him talking about 2015 and others even more optimistic with 2020 estimates he rocked the room with his peak message. While there were hundreds of attendees that felt we were at the peak but no "official" speakers willing to bet their reputations with an official call, Pickens statement closed the conference for all practical purposes. It was the confirmation everybody wanted to justify Friday's $90 oil.
I would love to tell you everything I learned this week at the conference but it would be impossible to condense my two yellow pads of notes into anything coherent that would fit into this newsletter. It would be a very good start to a book on peak oil rather than a weekly update. I am not going to even make a good stab at it today due to time constraints. I am trying to squeeze this update in between presentations and then have to hit the road again.
Basically the bottom line to the peak oil story is the 88 mbpd demand estimate for Q4 from the EIA. According to EVERYONE in attendance the maximum sustained production available today is just over 85 mbpd including natural gas liquids. With a 3 mbpd shortfall expected in Q4 and part of Q1 we will be pulling from current inventory levels to make up that shortage. The IEA said just last week that global inventory fell to a 5-year low due to the production cut from OPEC earlier in the year. Now, with demand booming, OPEC is behind the curve and may have to open all the pipes in Q4 just to stay even with demand.
The wild card here is demand destruction due to price. According to Henry Groppe, a 61-year veteran of the oil industry, demand actually fell -.5% over the last three months. Without demand destruction we would have suffered a strong case of price rationing over the coming months. Price rationing is voluntary conservation by consumers simply due to the high price of fuel.
Pickens and others also discussed the coming peak in natural gas. Pickens is a strong advocate of switching to natural gas as a transportation fuel but he agreed that the peak in gas would follow shortly behind the peak in crude oil production. The gas scuttlebutt around the conference was the exploding number of wells being drilled and continued decline in actual gas production. I have mentioned it many times in the past but the market has not even begun to thought about a gas peak given the mild winters and drop in demand for the last two years. That will come back to the forefront very quickly if a real winter appears. Pickens is a heavy gas investor and he predicted $7-$8 in 2007-2008 and $8-$9 in 2009 without a cold winter. Once normal winters return that price could quickly go back to $12.
The drop in gas from Canada was a constant topic and rig counts in Canada are down -30% due to gas prices. Companies can't drill and produce gas in remote areas of Canada for $6 and make money. Canada is also worrying about the amount of gas being consumed by the oil sands operations and the slowing volumes in the pipeline. Lower volumes mean less available for upgrading and increasing oil sands production. I asked Boone if he was concerned about the falling volumes of gas impacting the oil sands output for Suncor (SU). He is a big investor in Suncor and he said Suncor had partial control of their own fate because Suncor had its own gas supply and was working to add to that supply. He remains bullish on Canada oil sands because of his views of oil production peaking worldwide. He confirmed he was still bullish on Suncor and I think we should be looking to enter a position on any pullback.
Pickens, Matthew Simmons and several other speakers kept using the current volume of global crude production as very near the top or already at it. Actual global crude production appears to have topped at just under 74 mbpd according to the monthly EIA numbers. Were it not for the addition of natural gas liquids from the vast number of gas wells being drilled we would already be seeing a decline in overall liquids production. Reportedly crude condensate and NG liquids are making up the shortfall on pure crude. NG liquids are the only liquid fuel still showing production increases. The problem there is the rapid decline rate for gas wells. The current wells being drilled in the U.S. are very rapid producers and very rapid decliners. Drillers have to race to drill new wells to offset the rapid decline of the wells they drilled just a year earlier. Remember there are over 1400 gas rigs operating in North America (a record high) and total gas production continues to fall. You may have noticed how well UPL and CHK did in Friday's sell off.
Leading the decline in the oil sector on earnings news was Schlumberger (SLB) with a minor earnings miss. SLB fell -12.30 after posting a +35% jump in earnings. SLB missed estimates by 2 cents after a factoring in a 4-cent benefit from a lower tax rate. That weak performance was due mostly to slowing services in North America from slowing drilling activity. It is hard to believe that drilling is slowing with oil at $90 but most drilling in North America is gas drilling not oil. America peaked in oil production back in 1970 although we still produce about 5 mbpd locally.
Matthew Simmons said on Friday that the water cut on east Texas wells was over 90%. That means for every 10 barrels of liquid pumped out of the ground nine of them are water and that ratio is continuing to rise. Reportedly that ratio in Saudi Arabia's biggest field has risen to more than 70%. It was widely reported by numerous presenters that Saudi production has fallen for the last 18 months and that was evident when OPEC cut their quota in the last round of output corrections. Saudi is currently spending $22 billion to hopefully increase their production capability from their current reported capacity of 11 mbpd to 12 mbpd by 2009. There are more than 120 active rigs in Saudi Arabia and that is six times the number of active rigs 5 years ago. When you consider their $22 billion expansion program and their falling actual production over the last 18 months it really causes concern that they will never see that mythical 12 mbpd target.
We should thank SLB for knocking the steam off the energy sector. I was about ready to write off all our watch list entries when oil hit $90 but you may have noticed that the oil sector has not followed the price of oil higher. If oil does tank next week on recession fears that riled the broader market on Friday then SLB could be the canary in the coalmine that leads the sector even lower. There may still be hope we can get some entries before the normal winter bounce.
I am going to cut this short tonight and head back to the last few presentations. This conference has rekindled my idea for a peak oil investor conference in the spring. I am going to work on some preliminary plans next week and see if I can make it happen. I would love to get our subscribers in front of about a dozen of these speakers and let everyone hear for themselves about the outlook for oil and gas as we head into the peak oil scenario at full speed.
November Natural Gas Futures Chart - Daily
November Gasoline Futures Chart - RBOB Daily
Changes in Portfolio
Portfolio Listing & Top Picks
Most Recent Plays
None this week.
NOV $69.81 -8.56 - National Oilwell Varco
That was REALLY PAINFUL! The SLB news knocked NOV back into September with a monster -7 drop on Friday. I have no stop on NOV and I would consider $70 a good entry point for anyone that missed the last entry.
Position: 2008 May $90 Call NON-ER @ $7.20
MDR - $54.27 -6.60 McDermott International
Almost all of the loss for the week came with the -$5 drop on Friday as a result of the SLB news. No specific news for MDR other than the announcement of an earnings date. Earnings scheduled for Nov-8th.
Earnings schedule: Nov 8th
Breakout trigger: $53, hit 9/20
Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OYZ-AL @ $9.00
UPL $68.42 -1.93 - Ultra Petroleum *** Stop Loss $52 ***
Excellent strength by UPL in the face of a sector decline. UPL only lost -1.18 on Friday. No news and no earnings date.
Breakdown target: $52.50 Hit 8/30
Position: Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $8.00
CHK $37.60 +0.11 Chesapeake Energy
CHK actually posted a gain for the week, only a few cents but still a gain. A loss of 79 cents on Friday was a non-event. I drove past DFW airport last week and marveled at the CHK rigs drilling in sight of the runways.
Earnings schedule: Nov 7th
Position: 2010 $35 LEAP Call WZY-AG @ $6.60 ** No Stop on LEAP **
HP $31.38 -1.60 Helmerich & Payne *** Stop Loss $27.50 ***
No news but HP did drop -1.50 on the SLB earnings. We still have the insurance put so we are covered against any further declines.
Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50
HERO $25.16 -2.54 Hercules Offshore ** Stop Loss $24.00 **
All week was ugly for HERO. The service company gave up nearly all of its prior gains and retreated to support at $25. Earnings are scheduled for Oct-30th. Maintain the stop at $24.
Position: 2008 April $30 Call HIQ-DF @ $3.00
GLBL $25.11 -0.96 Global Industries ** Stop Loss $18.50 **
GLBL continued its decline from the prior week but at a snails pace. We are still well above the stop. No change in play.
Earnings schedule: Nov-1st
Position: 2008 March $25 Call GQO-CE @ $3.30
BHP - $82.64 -2.11 BHP Billiton ** Stop Loss $60.00 **
Dip, what dip? BHP barely reacted to the sector news and gave back only $2 of the prior week's gains.
Breakdown target: $55 hit 8/15/07
Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call LPH-AN @ $9.00
CCJ - $45.19 +1.34 Cameco ** Stop Loss $30 **
Outstanding! CCJ was the biggest gainer for the week. I have a lot of news about uranium supplies and nuke plans that I will share in the coming weeks. Bottom line, CCJ is a BUY! No news and no change in play.
Earnings schedule: Oct-31st
Breakdown target: $35 Hit 8/16/07
Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LTA-AJ @ $7.20
IWM $79.09 -4.73 Russell 2000 iShares ** Stopped $79.50 **
The Russell imploded on Friday after a decline with the markets all week. Our highly profitable position turned into an exit with no gain when our stop was hit on Friday.
Position: Jan $80 Call IOW-AB @ $4.25, exit $4.25 no gain
BSC $116.41 -6.75 Bear Stearns *** Closed $116 ***
I changed my mind on BSC this week. The bounce faded despite discussions of possible buyers of a BSC stake. With Friday's numerous comments about a tough recession ahead I am going to bail while we are still positive.
Breakdown target $100 hit 8/06/07
Position: 2010 $120 LEAP Call YBO-AD @ $25.60, exit $26.10
CFC - $15.23 -2.49 Countrywide Financial ** Stopped $17 **
News of the CEO's continued stock sales and SEC investigations into those sales pushed us back to the stop and killed the play after a very volatile couple of months.
Breakdown target $20.00 hit 8/15/07
Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Call YJD-AF @ $7.00, exit $2.90, -4.10
Leaps Trader Watch List
No new entries but with some additional help from earnings and the market we could find some additional positions next week.
Current Watch List
JEC - Jacobs Engineering Group
Jacobs has been on a very strong growth path and the recent market weakness has knocked it back into range. It has oil and gas exposure but it not an oil and gas company.
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. is a professional services firm that focuses on providing a range of technical, professional and construction services. It provides project services, which include engineering, design, architectural, and similar services; process, scientific, and systems consulting services; operations and maintenance services, and construction services, which include direct-hire construction and construction management services. It concentrates its services on selected industry groups and markets, including oil and gas exploration, production and refining; programs for various federal governments; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; chemicals and polymers; buildings, which includes projects in the fields of healthcare and education, as well as civic, governmental and other buildings; infrastructure and technology and manufacturing. In April 2006, its Canadian subsidiary acquired Techna-West Engineering Limited. In October 2006, it acquired W.H. Linder & Associates, Inc.
Breakdown target: $70.00
Buy APR 2008 $80 Call JEC-DP
VLO - Valero Energy
Looking to buy Valero cheap on the fall dip.
Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates 18 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce refined products, such as reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), CARB diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates (liquid hydrocarbon compounds containing oxygen). It also produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals and other refined products. It markets branded and unbranded refined products on a wholesale basis in the United States and Canada through a bulk and rack marketing network. It sells refined products through a network of approximately 5,800 retail and wholesale branded outlets in the United States, Canada and Aruba. During the year ended December 31, 2006, it sold all of its ownership interest in Valero GP Holdings, LLC. In July 2007, the Company sold its Lima, Ohio refinery to Husky Energy Inc.
Breakdown target: $62.50
BUY 2009 $70 LEAP Call VHB-AN
COP - Conoco Phillips
I hesitate to add Conoco because of its Russian LUKOIL exposure but the company is doing everything else right. Now that it is out of Venezuela it should be more aggressive with other opportunities. COP announced a new $15 billion buyback at the end of September.
ConocoPhillips (ConocoPhillips) is an international, integrated energy company. The Company's business is organized into six segments. Exploration and Production segment primarily explores for, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids on a worldwide basis. Midstream segment gathers, processes and markets natural gas produced by ConocoPhillips and others, and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids, primarily in the United States and Trinidad. Refining and Marketing segment purchases, refines, markets and transports crude oil and petroleum products, mainly in the United States, Europe and Asia. LUKOIL Investment segment consists of its equity investment in the ordinary shares of OAO LUKOIL (LUKOIL). The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. Emerging Businesses segment includes the development of new technologies and businesses outside the Company's normal scope of operations.
Breakdown target: $80
Buy 2009 $90 LEAP Call OJP-AR
MRO - Marathon Oil
On July 31st Marathon announced its purchase of Western Oil Sands for $5.5 billion. This will be an immediate increase in production for Marathon of 31,000 bpd. The acquisition gives them 20% interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project in Alberta. The other partners are Shell 60% and Chevron 20%.
Marathon Oil Corporation (Marathon) is engaged in exploration, production and marketing of crude oil and natural gas worldwide. The Company operates in three segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas on a worldwide basis; Refining, Marketing and Transportation (RM&T), which refines, markets and transports crude oil and petroleum products, primarily in the Midwest, the upper Great Plains and southeastern United States, and Integrated Gas (IG), which markets and transports products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, on a worldwide basis, and is developing other projects. During the year ended December 31, 2006, Marathon completed leasehold acquisitions totaling approximately 200,000 acres in the Bakken Shale oil play. In July 2006, it completed a natural gas leasehold acquisition in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, in Garfield County in the Greater Grand Valley field complex.
Breakdown target: $52
Buy 2009 $60 LEAP Call VXM-AL
SLB - Schlumberger
SLB posted blowout earnings on its global services business and had only good things to say about the future.
Schlumberger Limited (Schlumberger) is an oilfield service company supplying a range of technology services and solutions to the international petroleum industry. It consists of two business segments: Schlumberger Oilfield Services and WesternGeco. Schlumberger Oilfield Services is an oilfield services company supplying a range of technology services and solutions to the international oil and gas industry. WesternGeco, owned by Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, is an advanced surface seismic company. Schlumberger's products and services include the evaluation and development of oil reservoirs (controlled digging, pumping and testing services), well construction and production consulting, and sale of software programs. The Company also offers storage tank and seismic monitoring services. Schlumberger Limited is headquartered in Paris, France.
Breakdown target: $95.00
Buy 2009 $100 LEAP Call VWY-AT
TSO - Tesoro
Tesoro Corporation (Tesoro) is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer with two operating segments: refining, which is engaged in refining crude oil and other feedstocks at its six refineries in the western and mid-continental United States and selling refined products in bulk and wholesale markets (refining), and retail, which is engaged in selling motor fuels and convenience products in the retail market through its 460 branded retail stations in 18 states. Through its refining segment, the Company produces refined products, primarily gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, jet fuel, diesel fuel and heavy fuel oils for sale to a variety of commercial customers in the western and mid-continental United States. Tesoro's retail segment distributes motor fuels through a network of retail stations, primarily under the Tesoro and Mirastar brands.
Breakdown trigger: $43
Buy 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZGC-AJ
XOM - ExxonMobil
I caved in and added Exxon to the list because of their performance in 2007. With 6 billion shares outstanding it takes a lot to move their stock price but they added +$30 since Sept-06.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (ExxonMobil) is an international oil and gas company. ExxonMobil operates facilities or market products in many countries, and explores for oil and natural gas on six continents. ExxonMobil is involved in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture of petroleum products, and the transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. ExxonMobil is a manufacturer and marketer of commodity and specialty petrochemicals, and also has interests in electric power generation facilities. In addition, the Company conducts research programs in support of these businesses.
Breakdown trigger: $85
Buy 2009 $90 LEAP Call ODU-AR
CVX - Chevron
Chevron Corp. (Chevron), manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates, and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to the United States and foreign subsidiaries that engage in fully integrated petroleum operations, chemicals operations, mining operations of coal and other minerals, power generation and energy services. Exploration and production (upstream) operations consist of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas, and also marketing natural gas. Refining, marketing and transportation (downstream) operations relate to refining crude oil into finished petroleum products; marketing crude oil and the many products derived from petroleum, and transporting crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car. Chemical operations include the manufacture and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant oil additives.
Breakdown trigger: $87
Buy 2009 $100 LEAP Call VCH-AT
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company head-quartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The Company's operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea and Offshore West Africa. In November 2006, the Company completed the acquisition of Anadarko Canada Corporation from Anadarko Petroleum Corporation. The Company's crude oil and natural gas activities are conducted in three geographic segments: North America, North Sea and Offshore West Africa. These activities relate to the exploration, development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas. The Company's Horizon Project has been classified as a separate segment. Midstream activities include the Company's pipeline operations and an electricity co-generation system.
Breakdown Trigger: $66.00
Buy 2009 $70 LEAP Call OKR-AN
PBR - Petrobras
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (Petrobras) is a wholly owned enterprise of the Brazilian Government, which is responsible for all hydrocarbon activities in Brazil. The Company is engaged in a range of oil and gas activities. Petrobras operates in six segments: exploration and production, supply, distribution, gas and power, international and corporate. In June 2007, Petrobras announced that it completed transfer of all of the shares of Petrobras Bolivia Refinancion S.A. to YPF S.A. In March 2007, the Company, Braskem S.A. and Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. announced the acquisition of Grupo Ipiranga. In September 2006, the Company announced the closing of the acquisition by Petrobras America, Inc. (PAI), its wholly owned subsidiary in the United States Gulf of Mexico, of 50% of Pasadena Refining System Inc. In June of 2006, it completed the acquisition of 66% of Gaseba Uruguay-Grupo Gaz de France S.A.
Breakdown Trigger: $65
Buy 2009 $70 LEAP Call VDW-AN
DO - Diamond Offshore
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (Diamond Offshore) provides contract drilling services to the energy industry worldwide and is also engaged in deepwater drilling with a fleet of 44 offshore drilling rigs. The Company's fleet consists of 30 semisubmersibles, 13 jack-ups and one drillship. The Company offers a range of services worldwide in various markets, including the deep water, harsh environment, conventional semisubmersible and jack-up markets. The Company provides offshore drilling services to a customer base that includes independent oil and gas companies and government-owned oil companies.
Breakdown Trigger: $100
Buy 2010 $110 LEAP Call VCT-AB
CLB - Core Labs
Core Laboratories N.V. (Core Lab) is a provider of reservoir description, production enhancement and reservoir management services to the oil and gas industry. These products and services are directed toward enabling the Company's clients to improve reservoir performance and increase oil and gas recovery from their producing fields. It has over 70 offices in more than 50 countries. Core Lab derives its revenues from services and product sales to clients in the oil and gas industry. Its reservoir optimization services and technologies are interrelated and are organized into three complementary segments: Reservoir Description, which encompasses the characterization of petroleum reservoir rock, fluid and gas samples; Production Enhancement, which includes products and services relating to reservoir well completions, perforations, stimulations and production, and Reservoir Management, which combines and integrates information from reservoir description and production enhancement services.
Breakdown Trigger: $115
Buy 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZYM-AD
APA - Apache Corporation
Apache was upgraded to 5 stars by Morningstar in late August.
Apache Corporation is an independent energy company that explores for, develops and produces natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. In North America, the Company's exploration and production interests are focused in the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast, East Texas, the Permian Basin, the Anadarko Basin and the Western Sedimentary Basin of Canada. It has interests in onshore Egypt, offshore Western Australia, offshore the United Kingdom in the North Sea (North Sea), and onshore Argentina. Its segments are the United States, Canada, Egypt, Australia, the North Sea and Other International. The Company also holds interests in many of its United States, Canadian and other international properties through operating subsidiaries, such as Apache Canada Ltd., DEK Energy Company (DEKALB), Apache Energy Limited (AEL), Apache International, Inc. and Apache Overseas, Inc. On January 6, 2006, the Company completed the sale of its 55% interest in the deepwater section of Egypt's West Mediterranean.
Breakdown trigger: $80
Buy 2009 $90 LEAP Call OWF-AR
FWLT - Foster Wheeler
This is a long shot but a great entry if we can get it.
Foster Wheeler Ltd. operates through two business groups, which also constitute its segments: Global Engineering and Construction Group (E&C Group), and Global Power Group. The Global E&C Group designs, engineers and constructs onshore and offshore upstream oil and gas processing facilities, natural gas liquefaction facilities and receiving terminals, gas-to-liquids facilities, oil refining, and chemical and petrochemical, pharmaceutical, biotechnology and healthcare facilities and related infrastructure, including power generation and distribution facilities. Global Power Group designs, manufactures, and erects steam generating and auxiliary equipment for electric power generating stations and industrial facilities worldwide. On April 7, 2006, the Company completed the purchase of the remaining 51% interest in MF Power S.r.L., a joint venture that was 49% owned by the Company's Global E&C Group prior to the acquisition.
Breakdown trigger: $115
BUY 2009 $130 LEAP Call ZHF-AX
OII - Oceaneering International
Oceaneering International, Inc. is a global oilfield provider of engineered services and products primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry, with a focus on deepwater applications. Through the use of its applied technology capabilities, the Company also serves the defense and aerospace industries. The services and products the Company provides to the oil and gas industry include remotely operated vehicles, mobile offshore production systems, built-to-order specialty hardware, engineering and project management, subsea intervention services, nondestructive testing and inspection, and manned diving. Oceaneering International, Inc s business segments are contained within two businesses: services and products provided to the oil and gas industry (Oil and Gas) and all other services and products (Advanced Technologies). In July 2007, the Company announced the acquisition of Ifokus Engineering AS, a Norwegian designer and manufacturer of specialty sub-sea products.
Breakdown trigger: $72
Buy APR $80 Call OII-DP
FTI - FMC Technologies
FMC Technologies, Inc. (FMC Technologies) is a global provider of technology solutions for the energy industry and other industrial markets. The Company designs, manufactures and services systems and products, such as subsea production and processing systems, surface wellhead production systems, high-pressure fluid control equipment, measurement solutions, and marine loading systems for the oil and gas industry. It also produces food processing equipment for the food industry and specialized equipment to service the aviation industry. FMC Technologies business segments are Energy Systems (comprising Energy Production Systems and Energy Processing Systems), FoodTech and Airport Systems. In April 2007, the Company increased its stake in CDS Engineering BV to 91%. In June 2007, the Company acquired Technisys, Inc.
Breakdown Trigger: $50
Buy APR $55 Call FTI-DK
CAM - Cameron International
Cameron International Corp., formerly Cooper Cameron Corporation, is an international manufacturer of oil and gas pressure control and separation equipment, including valves, wellheads, controls, chokes, blowout preventers and assembled systems for oil and gas drilling, production and transmission used in onshore, offshore and subsea applications and provides oil and gas separation, metering and flow measurement equipment. It is also a manufacturer of centrifugal air compressors, integral and separable gas compressors and turbochargers. The Company's operations are organized into three separate business segments: Drilling & Production Systems (DPS), formerly the Cameron segment; Valves & Measurement (V&M), formerly the Cooper Cameron Valves segment, and Compression Systems (CS), formerly the Cooper Compression segment. In January 2006, the Company acquired the assets and liabilities of Caldon Company.
Breakdown target: $85
Buy 2009 $90 LEAP Call OKA- AR
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