Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 9/30/2012

Table of Contents

  1. Leaps Trader Commentary
  2. Portfolio
  3. New Plays
  4. Play Updates
  5. Watch

Leaps Trader Commentary

Third Quarter Ends on a Down Note

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Expectations for window dressing to power the market to another high were disappointed. The mid September QE announcement by the Fed pushed the S&P 500 to new multi-year highs. The index closed at 1465, which marked a +7.5% gain for the third quarter and a +16.5% gain for the year. In the last two weeks concerns over Europe and a parade of disappointing economic data have fueled profit taking in the U.S. markets. Headlines out of Spain regarding new austerity measures and speculation that China would soon add additional stimulus helped spark a bounce on Thursday. This ended a five-day losing streak for the U.S. market but there was no follow through on Friday.

We had a very week for economic data. The latest consumer confidence reading was an unexpected surprise with a rise to 70.3 compared to estimate of 63.0. Another positive surprise was the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, which saw its July reading rise +1.2%, up from a +0.5% gain the month before. The initial weekly jobless claims dipped to 359,000 versus estimates of 379,000. Unfortunately, that was about it for improving economic data.

Disappointing investors was the latest estimate on Q2 GDP growth, which fell to +1.25%, down from the prior estimate of +1.73%. The Chicago ISM (previously PMI) dropped from 53.0 to 49.7, which is the lowest reading since September 2009. Readings under 50.0 indicate contraction and foreshadow a potential recession. The Kansas Fed manufacturing survey dropped from 8.0 in August to 2.0 in September, a new low for the year. The Durable Goods report for August plunged from a +3.3% gain in July to a -13.2% drop.

Spain and Greece remain major worries for Europe and the markets. The small country of Greece announced further budget cuts spread out over the next two years. This was most likely an effort to satisfy EU regulators so Greece would qualify for the next round of bailout payments. Greece has yet to meet its prior budget cuts so why the EU would believe them this time is a good question. Meanwhile Spain helped fuel a market bounce on Thursday when they announced strict austerity measures in their 2013 budget. It was suggested that Spain's proposal were stricter than what the EU might have proposed. The deal also focused on cutting spending instead of raising taxes. That also may have been a nod to the Spanish public since Spain will hold its regional elections on October 21st. There is a growing expectation that Spain will ask for a bailout from the EU/IMF/ECB this year. Two years ago that would have been unthinkable. Spain is the fourth largest economy in the EU with a $1.8 trillion GDP.

Major Indices:

Last week I cautioned readers that technically the S&P 500 was due for a pullback but I was expecting more window dressing. Well, the window dressing by fund managers for their third quarter statements failed to do much. The S&P 500 dipped to 1430 at its lows on Wednesday before bouncing. The index remains inside its five-month bullish channel after a -2.3% pullback from its high. The question now is will it remain in the channel or will it breakdown?

On a short-term basis the 1430 and 1420 levels should offer some support. If the S&P 500 were to breakdown from this channel (see chart below) I would expect a decline toward the 1400 level. That's almost a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-September rally.

chart of the S&P 500 index:

It was a rough week for the tech-heavy NASDAQ with a -2.0% decline. The index failed at resistance near 3200 the prior Friday and then fell the first three days this past week, slicing through the 3100 level on Wednesday. The correction may not be over yet.

I would look for support near 3040 and its simple 50-dma. If trader sentiment really sours we could see the NASDAQ drop toward the 3000 level over the next couple of weeks. That would be a -6% pullback from its September highs.

It would appear that the 3140-3150 area is now new short-term resistance.

chart of the NASDAQ Composite index:

The Russell 2000 index tried to hold support near the 840 level and failed. The short-term oversold bounce on Thursday ended a three-day losing streak but there was no follow through higher on Friday. Odds are growing that we will see the $RUT dip toward support near 820 or its simple 50-dma. Look for overhead resistance at 850 and 870.

Daily chart of the Russell 2000 index

We have a very busy week of economic events and reports. Stocks could move on Monday based on PMI data from around the world. China releases its latest PMI reading on September 30th. The Eurozone, Spain and India all release their PMI readings on Monday. Speaking of China, the Chinese markets will be closed all week for the semiannual "Golden Week" holiday.

There will be plenty of central bank headlines. The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the ECB all report on their latest interest rate decisions this week. ECB president Draghi will hold a press conference following the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Fed President Bernanke will speak on October 1st. Plus, the FOMC minutes from the last meeting will be released on Wednesday.

The major reports to watch in the U.S. are the ISM report on Monday, the ADP report on Wednesday and the Nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report on Friday. Right now economists are expecting the jobs report to show a gain of +120,000 new jobs for September compared to +96K new jobs in August. Considering all the negative economic data in recent weeks there is a good chance the September jobs report will disappoint.

The U.S. presidential election is less than 40 days away and the first debate is this coming Wednesday evening.

Economic and Event Calendar

- Monday, October 1 -
ISM Index (for September)
Construction spending
Eurozone PMI

- Tuesday, October 2 -
auto and truck sales for September
Eurozone inflation data

- Wednesday, October 3 -
ADP employment change report for September
ISM Services index
FOMC minutes
U.S. Presidential Debate (in Denver)

- Thursday, October 4 -
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
European Central Bank interest rate decision

- Friday, October 5 -
Nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report for September
Unemployment rate (Sept)

The Week Ahead:

The week ahead could be quiet. I would expect stocks to churn sideways up until the jobs report on Friday. Of course we could see headlines out of Europe create waves. There are always multiple cross currents at play in the market. Right now the U.S. dollar is bouncing and that could create pressure to push commodities lower. The third quarter is over but many mutual funds have their fiscal year end on October 31st. That gives them one month to make changes and shuffle their portfolio around. Will they be buying winners? Selling losers? Trying to lock in gains?

Another obstacle approaching the market is the Q3 earnings season, which will begin in a couple of weeks. Right now expectations are very low. Analysts are expecting earnings to fall by -2% or more compared to a year ago. Has a negative earnings quarter already priced in? It's possible but then the market is only a couple of percentage points off multi-year highs. I suspect the odds for additional profit taking loom large.

Adding to this worry that stocks could see profit taking on a disappointing earnings season is the upcoming fiscal cliff and the barrage of new taxes all set to begin in 2013. One of those taxes is an increase in capital gains. It is possible that the stock market could see additional selling as investors choose to take money off the table and lock in a lower tax rate now instead of selling in 2013. This pressure may be postponed until after the election as investors wait to see who wins the White House.

Short-term the market trend is down but that's inside a larger up trend. I suspect the correction will continue with either a sideways move or another drop to the next level of support. Patient investors can wait for the market to dip to and test support before launching new positions.

James


Portfolio

Portfolio Update

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


Current Portfolio


Portfolio Comments:

Stocks are down for their second week in a row. Investors could be taking profits after a strong third-quarter performance. Now the quarter is over. We are about to enter the fourth quarter, which tends to be bullish for equities. However, mid October tends to see some volatility that's probably due to earnings announcements. Q3 earnings season could definitely spark some fireworks in the market.

We were able to lock in strong gains for the 2013 calls on ABT, DFS, and TWX this last week.

JOY has jumped from the watch list to our active trade list.

ADI, APA, CHRW, SCHW and UNP were all stopped out.

I have adjusted stop losses on: DFS and PFE.

Disclaimer: At any given time the author may have positions in any or all of any companies mentioned in the Leaps Newsletter.

--Position Summary Table--
Table lists Directional CALL or PUT/LEAPS only.
Insurance puts, if applicable, are not shown.

Red symbol/name represents a play or option position exited or closed this week.




New Plays

Not Quite So Bullish

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

(September 29, 2012)

The market doesn't quite feel so bullish after another -2% decline in the S&P 500. The major indices are now down two weeks in a row following the QE-inspire spike higher. The overall trend is still up for the major averages but short-term we're correcting lower.

This past week produced a number of troubling economic reports. Now that the third quarter is over fund managers may feel more inclined to shuffle their portfolios even more and that could spark more volatility. October is infamous for its volatility. I am more inclined to wait and see if the S&P 500 dips toward support near the 1400 level, which could prove to be a nice entry point for new bullish positions.

I did strongly consider adding Family Dollar Stores (FDO) as a new bullish candidate. The stock is bouncing from a three-month correction while still in a long-term trend of higher lows. Yet FDO is due to report earnings on October 3rd. There is too much risk of holding a new positions over the announcement, especially when Q3 earnings are expected to disappoint Wall Street's estimates.

Instead of adding new trades tonight we are adding three new candidates to our watch list (FTR, KMB, and SIRI).


Play Updates

Profit Taking Mars Q3 Performance

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

We were able to lock in gains on some 2013 calls in ABT, DFS, and TWX. Unfortunately, we also saw five trades get stopped out as the profit taking continued into the final week of the quarter.


Closed Plays


ADI, APA, CHRW, SCHW, and UNP were stopped out.


Play Updates


Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 68.56

Comments:
09/29/12: ABT tagged a new high above $70 on Tuesday but failed to hold it. Shares have been slipping lower in profit taking the rest of the week. Big picture ABT is near the top of a wide, bullish channel. The stock looks like it's beginning to correct. We could see ABT pullback to the $66-65 area over the next week or two. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Last week we decided to exit our 2013 calls on Monday (Sept. 24th) at the opening bell.

Earlier Comments:
Before we continue I want to warn you that trading the drug makers or biotech stocks has an industry-specific danger. You never know when an FDA approval might get denied or delayed. Or some clinical trial data might disappoint. Headlines like these can send a stock gapping down. On the other hand positive news could send it soaring.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 02, 2012 - entry price on ABT @ 64.22, option @ 1.91
symbol: ABT1319A65 2013 JAN $65 call - exit $5.10 (+167.0%)

- or -

JUL 02, 2012 - entry price on ABT @ 64.22, option @ 4.28
symbol: ABT1418A65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 6.25

09/24/12 closed 2013 calls @ $5.10 (+167%)
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 63.75
Prepare to exit our 2013 calls on Monday. current bid is $5.15
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 62.75
07/14/12 ABT is due to report earnings on July 18th
07/02/12 ABT opened at $64.22
06/29/12 ABT closed @ 64.47. Plan was to wait for a close over $63.50 and buy calls the next day. We will open positions on Monday, July 2nd.

Current Target:$74.00
Current Stop loss: 63.75
Play Entered on: 07/02/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/23/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 32.79

Comments:
09/29/12: AIG had a nasty short-term plunge on Tuesday and Wednesday but traders bought the dip near $32. Right now AIG is struggling with short-term resistance near $33 and its 50-dma. The correction lower may not be over yet. If shares breakdown under $32 I would look for a drop to the next level of significant support, which is $30 and its simple 200-dma.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.95/ 4.05

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.45/ 4.55

09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 8.83

Comments:
09/29/12: Just as we suspected, the pullback in BAC was not over yet. Shares posted another weekly decline. I would look for BAC to find support in the $8.50-8.40 area. A bounce in that same area could be used as a new bullish entry point (using 2014 calls).

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.28/ 0.29
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.28/ 0.29
(no stop loss on this position)

09/08/12 BAC is breaking out. Consider buying 2014 calls on a dip near the $8.50-8.40 area
07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Caterpillar Inc. - CAT - close: 86.04

Comments:
09/29/12: Ouch! CAT was a big underperformer last week thanks to the company issuing an earnings warning on Tuesday. The stock gapped open lower and plunged toward its 50-dma. Shares look like they are headed for round-number support at $85.00 soon. We have a stop loss at $84.75. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship given the company's lowered guidance. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is the $110-115 zone (although we'll exit the 2013 calls before CAT hits our final target).

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on CAT @ 88.26, option @ 3.81
symbol: CAT1319A95 2013 JAN $95 CALL - current bid/ask $ 1.78/ 1.83

- or -

Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on CAT @ 88.26, option @ 7.90
symbol: CAT1418A100 2014 JAN $100 CALL - current bid/ask $ 5.95/ 6.15

09/25/12 CAT gaps down after lowering its guidance
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 84.75
08/18/12 new stop loss at $81.75
08/10/12 trade opened on Friday morning @ $88.26
08/09/12 CAT closed above our trigger (which was 87.50)
08/06/12 adjust entry trigger to a close over $87.50
07/21/12 adjusted entry point to wait for a close over $88.00, stop loss 79.90

Current Target: $110.00-115.00
Current Stop loss: 84.75
Play Entered on: 08/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/07/12


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 116.56

Comments:
09/29/12: CVX is holding up reasonably well. It's only a couple of points from its recent highs. Shares are churning in the $116-118.50 zone. If the $116 level breaks then I would look for a drop to the $114-112.00 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our long-term target is $129.00.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Sep 12, 2012 - entry price on CVX @ 114.23, option @ 5.60
symbol: CVX1418a125 2014 JAN $125 Call - current bid/ask $ 5.55/ 5.75

09/15/12 new stop loss at $109.75
09/12/12 trade opened with CVX at $114.23
09/11/12 CVX closed over $114.00
09/07/12 CVX closed at $114.00. Wait for a close over $114.00.
Current bid/ask on our option is $5.75/5.90.

Current Target: $129.00
Current Stop loss: 109.75
Play Entered on: 09/12/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 39.73

Comments:
09/29/12: DFS ended the quarter at a new all-time high. The company reported earnings on September 27th. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.03 a share. DFS delivered $1.21 on revenues of $1.96 billion. The blow out quarter sparked the big surge higher on Thursday and DFS is now challenging the $40 level.

Our target to exit the 2013 calls was hit at $39.75 on Thursday, Sept. 27th.

We still have the 2014 calls and we're aiming for $44.00.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

We will raise the stop loss to $35.75.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - exit $3.70 (+72.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.80/5.00

09/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/27/12 hits our $39.75 target to exit 2013 calls (option @ $3.70)
09/27/12 DFS beats Wall Street's earnings estimates
09/22/12 more conservative traders may want to exit right now or before DFS reports earnings on Sep 27th.
08/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75
08/25/12 adjusted targets to $39.75 (2013 calls), $44 (2014 calls)
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
...see prior updates for early comments.

Current Target: $39.75 for the 2013 call2, $44.00 for the 2014s
Current Stop loss: 35.75
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


Eastman Chemical Co. - EMN - close: 57.01

Comments:
09/29/12: So far so good. We were expecting EMN to bounce in the $56-55 zone. Readers can use the current bounce as a new bullish entry point to buy calls.

Our long-term target is to exit our 2014 calls when EMN hits $69.00.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 07, 2012 - entry price on EMN @ 56.64, option @ 2.50
symbol: EMN1319a60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $2.00/2.10

- or -

SEP 07, 2012 - entry price on EMN @ 56.64, option @ 5.55
symbol: EMN1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $4.70/5.00

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 52.40
Play Entered on: 09/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/18/12


HollyFrontier Corp. - HFC - close: 41.27

Comments:
09/29/12: It was not a good week for oil and gas-related stocks. HFC held up reasonably well and traders bought the dip near its rising 40 and 50-dma. Investors can use the current bounce as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
In the news HFC recently announced a special dividend of 50 cents a share payable on October 2nd to shareholders of record on September 25th. The ex-dividend date was Friday, Sept. 21st, 2012. Once again, the option exchanges have adjusted the strike prices again. They have decreased the strike price by 50 cents. Our 2013 Jan $41.50s are now $41.00s. The 2014 $44.50s are now $44.00s.

Our target is $44.50 for the 2013 calls and $48.50 for the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on HFC @ 40.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: HFC1319A41** 2013 JAN $41.00 call - current bid/ask $3.20/3.40

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on HFC @ 40.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: HFC1418A44** 2014 JAN $44.00 call - current bid/ask $5.60/6.10

** 09/22/12 this past week the option exchanges have adjusted the strike prices again by lowering them another 50 cents to account for HFC's special dividend.
Our 2013 Jan $41.50s are now $41.00s and the 2014 $44.50 calls are now $44.00s.
*The 2013 call was previously a $42 strike. Adjusted to $41.50 strike. The 2014 call was a $45 strike, now adjusted to a $44.50 strike (occurred in August 2012 due to a special dividend).

Current Target: $ 44.50(2013 calls), $48.50 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 36.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/06/12


Joy Global, Inc - JOY - close: 56.06

Comments:
09/29/12: JOY has graduated from our watch list to our play list. The plan was to buy calls on a dip at $57.50. Shares hit our entry point on Sept. 25th. The dip continued on the 26th with a drop toward $54.00. JOY has since bounced but Friday's decline is a bit ominous and might suggest the correction is not over yet.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We have a stop loss at $53.90 and if JOY hits a new relative low it's likely to hit our stop in the process. Let's give it a week and see how JOY performs before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 25, 2012 - entry price on JOY @ 57.50, option @ 7.50
symbol: JOY1418A70 2014 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $6.40/6.65

09/25/12 triggered on a dip at $57.50
09/22/12 adjust entry to buy a dip at $57.50, stop to $53.90

Chart of JOY:

Current Target: $78.50
Current Stop loss: 53.90
Play Entered on: 09/25/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 34.77

Comments:
09/29/12: LEN reported earnings on the 24th. The company beat both the revenue and the earnings estimates. Gross margins improved and the backlog of homes to build jumped dramatically. Yet investors decided to sell the news. There was an initial pop on Monday morning over $38 that immediately reversed. LEN is now testing short-term support near $34.00. We have a stop loss at $33.40.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target for the 2014 calls is still $39.50.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $36.00 for the 2013 calls and $39.50 for the 2014 calls. FYI: LEN is due to report earnings in mid September.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.30/4.50

09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
09/08/12 readers may want to take profits early ahead of LEN's upcoming earnings report (which is expected some time in the next two weeks)

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $39.50 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.40
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 47.41

Comments:
09/29/12: It was another quiet week for LLY. The stock consolidated sideways in the $47-48 range.

More conservative traders may want to exit now. Currently our final target for the 2014 calls is $48.50.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
(exited on July 23rd at the open)
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - exit $2.09 (+75.6%)

- or -

(still active)
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.45/ 4.60

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
09/08/12 readers may want to take profits right here after another strong week
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 42.75
08/24/12 LLY spikes on news regarding Alzheimer treatment study
07/23/12 closed the 2013 calls @ the open (+75.6%)
07/21/12 prepare to exit the 2013 Jan $45 calls on Monday morning
07/21/12 adjust exit target for 2014 calls to $48.50
06/30/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
06/23/12 LLY is hitting new multi-year highs.
06/09/12 new stop loss @ 38.75
04/25/12 LLY beat earnings estimates by 12c and raised guidance
03/17/12 LLY's close over $40.00 looks like a new bullish entry point
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $48.50 (2014)
Current Stop loss: 43.75
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


McDermott Intl. - MDR - close: 12.22

Comments:
09/29/12: The profit taking continued in MDR. Shares are now testing support near the $12.00 level. Actually shares bounced twice in the $11.90-11.95 region. MDR currently has a short-term, two-week bearish trend of lower highs. I would wait for a new close over $12.50 before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 20, 2012 - entry price on MDR @ 12.55, option @ 2.00
symbol: MDR1418A15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.55/1.75

Current Target: $14.90
Current Stop loss: 11.45
Play Entered on: 09/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 91.02

Comments:
09/29/12: MON ended the week with a 10-cent gain as the stock continues to churn under resistance at the $92.00 mark.

I want to warn you that this week could be volatile for MON. The company is due to report earnings on Oct. 3rd, before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a loss of 43 cents a share. After a four and a half month rally off its May lows the earnings report could be an excuse to sell.

If MON disappoints and the stock declines it's going to really hurt our 2013 calls. More conservative traders may want to exit the 2013 calls prior to the announcement.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 17, 2012 - entry price on MON @ 85.84, option @ 4.35
symbol: MON1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 5.05/ 5.15

- or -

Jul 17, 2012 - entry price on MON @ 85.84, option @ 6.50
symbol: MON1418A100 2014 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 6.75/ 6.95

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 84.75
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 83.75
08/25/12 adjust expectations, look for a dip toward $82
08/11/12 look for a pullback toward $84 soon
07/17/12 trade opens with MON at $85.84
07/16/12 MON closes above our entry requirement ($85.25)

Current Target: $99.50
Current Stop loss: 84.75
Play Entered on: 07/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/12


Merck & Co - MRK - close: 45.10

Comments:
09/29/12: MRK came close to a 20-cent gain for the week. Shares have been consolidating sideways in the $44.75-45.75 range. I suspect we'll see MRK retest the $44.00 region soon.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $43.00 or higher.

Our long-term target remains the $47.50 level since we have the 2014 options.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 25, 2012 - entry price on MRK @ 39.91, option @ 3.14
symbol: MRK1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 6.30/ 6.40

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 41.85
08/11/12 new stop loss @ 40.90
07/14/12 new stop loss @ 39.49
07/14/12 Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits now.
MRK is at $43.47, option @ 5.15 (+93.9%)
06/25/12 MRK gap down at $39.91
06/22/12 MRK met our entry point requirement with a close over $40.00. Launch positions on Monday morning (conservative traders can wait for a dip to the 10-dma instead).

Current Target: $47.50
Current Stop loss: 41.85
Play Entered on: 06/25/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/05/12


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 29.76

Comments:
09/29/12: Ouch! MSFT is seriously underperforming. The stock is down six days in a row. Friday's drop was ugly with a breakdown under both its 200-dma and the $30.00 mark. If there is any follow through lower than MSFT will likely hit our stop loss at $29.45.

This sudden decline could be due to stories that Intel's CEO was speaking to his staff about how MSFT is planning to release Windows 8 before the company has worked out all the bugs. It was definitely bad press that MSFT doesn't need before this crucial roll out to the next software upgrade cycle. It's common for software companies to release a product that still has some minor bugs that they can fix after the launch date with an update. Unfortunately it definitely sours consumers on rushing out to buy a new operating system that already has known bugs in it.

More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 1.69
symbol:MSFT1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 1.18/ 1.20

- or -

Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 3.05
symbol:MSFT1418A30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.95/ 2.97

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
07/28/12 raise stop loss to $28.45
06/18/12 MSFT announces the "surface" line of tablets
06/01/12 triggered at $28.50
05/19/12 adjust the trigger to $28.50, stop to $26.45
05/05/12 adjust the trigger to $29.00
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $29.50, stop to $26.75

Current Target: $32.75 & 34.75
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/14/12


Pepsico, Inc. - PEP - close: 70.77

Comments:
09/29/12: PEP delivered a boring week with shares churning sideways inside the $70-71 range. I remain worried about this trade. PEP's long-term trend is up. Yet the last six weeks have a clear bearish pattern of lower highs. Currently we have a stop loss at $69.40. Readers might want to tighten their stop so it's closer to support at $70.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 02, 2012 - entry price on PEP @ 70.34, option @ 2.85
symbol: PEP1418A75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 2.53/ 2.64

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 69.40, more conservative traders may want to exit early now.
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 68.75
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 67.75
07/02/12 PEP opened at $70.34
07/02/12 launch positions at the open
06/29/12 PEP meets our entry requirement with a close above $70.25.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 69.40
Play Entered on: 07/02/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/26/12


Pfizer Inc. - PFE - close: 24.85

Comments:
09/29/12: PFE rallied to new multi-year highs above $25.00 early in the week. The stock spent the last few days consolidating sideways in the $24.75-25.00 zone. I am inching our stop loss up to $22.75. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop closer to $23.50 instead.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 18, 2012 - entry price on PFE @ 23.53, option @ 1.30
symbol: PFE1418A25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.61/ 1.66

09/29/12 new stop loss @ 22.75
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 22.45
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 21.90
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 21.35
07/18/12 trade opens. PFE @ 23.53
07/17/12 PFE meets our entry requirements (close over $23.40)
06/23/12 removed the 2013 call. We'll only play the 2014s
04/28/12 do not launch positions prior to the earnings report on May 1st.

Current Target: $28.00
Current Stop loss: 22.75
Play Entered on: 07/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/21/12


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 62.47

Comments:
09/29/12: Excitement over AAPL's iPhone 5 launch is fading and shares of QCOM are seeling profit taking. QCOM, like the S&P 500, is down two weeks in a row. If QCOM breaks down under $62 the next stop is likely support at $60 and the 200-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on QCOM @ 61.71, option @ 2.56
symbol:QCOM1319A65 2013 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.35/ 2.38

- or -

Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on QCOM @ 61.71, option @ 4.75
symbol:QCOM1418A70 2014 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.20

09/15/12 new stop loss @ 59.40

Current Target: $68.50
Current Stop loss: 59.40
Play Entered on: 08/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/06/12


Spreadtrum Communications - SPRD - close: 20.51

Comments:
09/29/12: The last few days have been a little volatile for SPRD. The stock temporarily dipped under its 50-dma and almost hit our stop loss on Wednesday with a drop toward $19.00. Shares have since rebounded but there is a new short-term trend of lower highs that doesn't bode well for the bulls.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Sep 07, 2012 - entry price on SPRD @ 20.59, option @ 1.95
symbol:SPRD1319a22.5 2013 JAN $22.5 call - current bid/ask $ 1.60/ 1.80

Current Target: $24.00
Current Stop loss: 18.90
Play Entered on: 09/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/25/12


The TJX Companies - TJX - close: 44.79

Comments:
09/29/12: TJX managed a small gain for the week but our trade is still in jeopardy. TJX is churning sideways in the $44-45 zone. Yet it looks like shares are just consolidating after the bearish breakdown the week before. I suspect TJX is about to breakdown under $44.00 on its way to a much deeper correction.

Readers will want to seriously consider an complete exit right now. We will close our 2013 Jan $45 calls at the open on Monday. We'll keep the 2014 position active and leave the stop loss at $43.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 20, 2012 - entry price on TJX @ 43.62, option @ 2.53
symbol: TJX1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.15

- or -

Jun 20, 2012 - entry price on TJX @ 43.62, option @ 5.10
symbol: TJX1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.90

09/29/12 prepare to exit the 2013 calls on Monday morning
09/22/12 TJX looks vulnerable with a close under the 50-dma
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 43.40
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 42.40, readers with the 2013 calls may want to exit early now
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 40.85
07/05/12 TJX beats June same-store sales estimates and raises guidance
06/20/12 trade opens
06/19/12 TJX closed above our entry requirement (above $43.25)

Current Target: $49.75
Current Stop loss: 43.40
Play Entered on: 06/20/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/12


Time Warner - TWX - close: 45.33

Comments:
09/29/12: After a three-week surge higher we decided a week ago to exit our 2013 calls on Monday, Sep. 24th. That helped us avoid some of this week's pullback. The correction may not be over yet. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Aug 03, 2012 - entry price on TWX @ 40.66, option @ 1.79
symbol: TWX1319A42 2013 JAN $42 call - exit $4.55 (+154.1%)

- or -

Aug 03, 2012 - entry price on TWX @ 40.66, option @ 2.85
symbol: TWX1419A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.90

09/24/12 closed 2013 calls at the open ($4.55, +154.1%)
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 40.75.
Plan on exiting our 2013 calls on Monday morning at the open
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 39.85
08/11/12 readers might want to lock in gains now (+49% on the 2013 calls) in just two weeks and then jump back in on a correction in the stock.
08/03/12 TWX opens at $40.66 (trade opens)
08/02/12 TWX meets our entry requirement with a close over $40.50

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 40.75
Play Entered on: 08/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/21/12


U.S. Bancorp - USB - close: 33.85

Comments:
09/29/12: USB quietly churned sideways all week. The stock ended the quarter less than a dollar from its multi-year high set two weeks ago. More conservative traders might want to start inching up their stops.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 1.39
symbol: USB1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.02/ 1.06

- or -

Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 3.10
symbol: USB1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.92/ 3.05

09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
07/20/12 trade opens Friday morning
07/19/12 USB closes above our trigger <33.50
07/14/12 adjusted strategy: wait for a close over $33.50, stop 29.90
06/30/12 readers might want to consider an alternative entry point
06/23/12 adjust entry trigger to $29.00, stop to 26.40
06/02/12 adjust entry trigger to $28.00

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 31.40
Play Entered on: 07/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/19/12


Visa, Inc. - V - close: 134.28

Comments:
09/29/12: Visa is still consolidating sideways. The stock has found a new range in the $132-136 zone. There should be additional support at $130.

I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $149.00 (although we'll likely exit our 2013 calls before V reaches our target).

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 5.85
symbol: V1319A135 2013 JAN $135 call - current bid/ask $ 5.85/ 5.95

- or -

JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 11.95
symbol: V1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $13.60/13.85

08/06/12 new stop loss @ 119.75
07/16/12 V pops on news of a settlement in 7-year lawsuit
07/03/12 trade opens with Visa at $126.49
07/02/12 Visa closes above our trigger @ 125.50

Current Target: $149.00
Current Stop loss: 119.75
Play Entered on: 07/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12


Wells Fargo & Co - WFC - close: 34.53

Comments:
09/29/12: WFC was not immune to the two-week slide in financials. Shares posted another loss for the week (about 50 cents). WFC is now testing technical support near its rising 40 and 50-dma. Previously I suggested a dip near $34.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point. At this point I'd rather wait and watch for a bounce off this area before considering new positions.

FYI: The point & figure chart is bullish with a $57 target.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 14, 2012 - entry price on WFC @ 35.60, option @ 2.26
symbol: WFC1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.63/ 1.68

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 32.75
Play Entered on: 09/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/06/12


CLOSED Plays


Analog Devices, Inc. - ADI - close: 39.17

Comments:
09/29/12: It was a rough week semiconductor stocks including ADI. The stock continued to sink and hit our stop loss at $38.75 on Sept. 26th.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 17, 2012 - entry price on ADI @ 41.46, option @ 2.80
symbol: ADI1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - exit $1.80 (-35.7%)

Chart of ADI:

Current Target: $49.75
Current Stop loss: 38.75
Play Entered on: 09/17/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 09/15/12


Apache Corp. - APA - close: 86.47

Comments:
09/29/12: Oil and oil service stocks have had a rough two weeks with stocks falling and crude oil prices plunging. APA fell toward support near $85.00. Then on Wednesday morning it gapped open lower at $84.72. That was below our stop loss at $84.90 and immediately closed our trade.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 18, 2012 - entry price on APA @ 87.10, option @ 3.45
symbol: APA1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - exit @ $0.60 (-82.6%)

- or -

Jun 18, 2012 - entry price on APA @ 87.10, option @ 6.43
symbol: APA1418A100 2014 JAN $110 call - exit @ $3.30 (-48.6%)

09/26/12 stopped out at $84.90
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 84.90
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 82.90
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 81.40

Chart of APA:

Current Target: $109.00
Current Stop loss: 84.90
Play Entered on: 06/18/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 06/16/12


CH Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - close: 58.58

This is a bearish PUT option trade.

Comments:
09/29/12: Our CHRW put play has been stopped out. We've been concerned about this trade for a while now. CHRW has been consolidating sideways while the rest of the transportation sector was falling. A week ago we lowered our stop loss down to $58.50 to reduce our risk. Bingo! On Monday CHRW broke through resistance near $58.00 and hit our stop loss at $58.50. The next day shares soared toward the $61.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
May 07, 2012 - entry price on CHRW @ 60.61, option @ 3.00
symbol:CHRW1319M55 2013 JAN $55 PUT - exit @ $1.70 (-43.3%)

09/24/12 stopped out at $58.50
09/22/12 new stop loss @ $58.50, readers may want to just exit early now
09/08/12 adjust stop loss to $60.25
07/28/12 lowering the stop loss to $60.75.
07/14/12 raising the risk on this trade by adjusting the stop loss to $63.25.
06/02/12 new stop loss @ 62.25

Chart of CHRW:

Current Target: $50.50
Current Stop loss: 58.50
Play Entered on: 05/07/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 05/05/12


Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 12.79

Comments:
09/29/12: The profit taking in SCHW has accelerated and the stock plunges for another week. The stock hit our stop loss at $12.90. Shares have seen a dramatic reversal from an intraday high of $14.62 on Sept. 14th to a low of $12.64 on Friday. That's a -13.5% decline in two weeks. Aside from a couple of analysts downgrades I don't see any specific catalyst for SCHW's underperformance.

Our stop was hit on Sept. 25th.

- Suggested Positions -
Sep 07, 2012 - entry price on SCHW @ 13.97, option @ 1.90
symbol:SCHW1319a12.5 2013 JAN $12.5 call - exit @ 0.95 (-50%)

- or -

Sep 07, 2012 - entry price on SCHW @ 13.97, option @ 1.60
symbol:SCHW1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit @ 0.85 (-46.8%)

Chart of SCHW:

Current Target: $15.50
Current Stop loss: 12.90
Play Entered on: 09/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/18/12


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 118.70

Comments:
09/29/12: Transportation stocks continue to weigh down the market. The Dow Jones transportation average closed the week at new three-month lows. UNP hit new two-month lows. Shares also dipped under their 100-dma and the intraday spike lower on Friday hit our stop loss at $117.75.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on UNP @ 122.10, option @ 3.80
symbol: UNP1319A130 2013 JAN $130 call - exit $1.10* (-71.0%)

- or -

Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on UNP @ 122.10, option @ 6.40
symbol: UNP1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - exit $4.55* (-28.9%)

09/28/12 stopped out at $117.75
*option exit prices are an estimate. options did not trade at the time our play was stopped out
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 117.75
08/18/12 new stop loss at $114.75
08/11/12 that looks like a brand new bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on the weekly chart today. Let's see if there is any follow through.

Chart of UNP:

Current Target: $139.00
Current Stop loss: 117.75
Play Entered on: 07/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12



Watch

Telecom, Personal Products, & Radio

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


New Watch List Entries

FTR - Frontier Telecom

KMB - Kimberly-Clark

SIRI - SIRIUS XM Radio


Active Watch List Candidates

CCL - Carnival Corp.

DE - Deere & Co.

GE - General Electric

GLD - Gold ETF

JPM - JPMorgan Chase


Dropped Watch List Entries

JOY graduated to our play list. I have removed AMED as a candidate.



New Watch List Candidates:


Frontier Comm. - FTR - close: 4.92

Company Info

FTR is a U.S. telecom company. After a painful plunge from $9.50 in earl 2011 the stock bottomed near $3.00 back in May 2012. Since then FTR has slowly been working its way higher and consolidating under resistance. Well now shares are challenging significant resistance at $5.00 and its simple 300-dma.

Friday saw a spike to $5.15. I am suggesting we buy calls after FTR closes above $5.20. Wait for FTR to close above our trigger and buy calls the next day with a stop at $4.65. Our long-term target is $6.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $5.20 (stop 4.65)

BUY the 2014 Jan $5 call (FTR1418a5) current ask $0.55

Chart of FTR:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Kimberly-Clark - KMB - close: 85.78

Company Info

KMB might be considered a defensive play. Shares are in the consumer goods sector. The company makes all manner of personal care products like diapers, baby wipes, facial tissue, paper towels, etc. The stock is currently yielding 3.5%. Traders bought the dip twice near $82.00 and KMB looks poised to challenge its 2012 highs. I suspect the stock will breakout. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $105 target.

I am suggesting we wait for KMB to close over $86.25 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $83.45. Our target is $99.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $86.25 (stop 83.45)

BUY the 2014 Jan $90 call (KMB1418a90) current ask $3.70

Chart of KMB:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.59

Company Info

Not to be confused with Apple's digital assistant, Siri, this stock (SIRI) is the satellite radio company. Sirius and XM radio battled it out for a few years before finally merging. The stock has been a dog for years but it has been working its way higher. Traders recently bought the dip at its rising 50-dma and now SIRI is poised to breakout past resistance near $2.60.

I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because SIRI can be so volatile. The August high was $2.64. I am suggesting we wait for SIRI to close over $2.65 and then open bullish positions the next day.

Please note, in addition to the LEAPS option listed I am also listing buying the stock since SIRI is a low dollar stock and about the price of some of the options we trade.

Our long-term target is $3.90.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $2.65 (stop 2.29)

BUY the 2014 Jan $3.00 call (SIRI1418a3) current ask $0.33

- or -

BUY the stock SIRI

Chart of SIRI:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Amedisys Inc. - AMED - close: 13.82

Comments:
09/29/12: AMED has faded farther and farther away from resistance near the $16.00 level. The breakdown under what should have been support near $14.00 and its 50-dma and 200-ema is a potential sell signal.

I am removing AMED as a candidate.

Trade did not open.

09/29/12 removed from the watch list
09/15/12 strategy change: wait for AMED to close over $16.10, then buy calls the next day. Use the March 2013 $16 call. Raise the stop to $13.90. Move the exit target to $19.90.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/08/12


Carnival Corp. - CCL - close: 37.39

Comments:
09/29/12: CCL reported earnings this past week. The company beat estimates but then ruined the news by guiding lower. We have been expecting a pullback. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

I am suggesting we open small bullish positions on a dip at $35.25 with a stop at $32.75.

Our long-term target is $42.00. FYI: The point and figure chart is bullish with a $48 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $35.25 (stop loss @ 32.75) *Small Positions*

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (CCL1418a40)

09/22/12 earnings are due on Sep. 25th. We are adjusting our entry trigger to $35.25 and our stop loss to $32.75
09/15/12 move the trigger to $36.00 and the stop to $33.75

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/08/12


Deere & Co. - DE - close: 82.47

Comments:
09/29/12: DE is holding up pretty well, especially considering how its rival CAT issued an earnings warning last week. I am still expecting DE to dip but I'm not sure $80 will hold as support.

We will adjust our buy-the-dip trigger to $79.00 and move our stop loss down to $74.90. We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $94.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $79.00 (stop loss 74.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $90 call (DE1418a90)

09/29/12 adjust our entry point to buy a dip at $79.00, adjust the stop loss to $74.90

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


General Electric - GE - close: 22.71

Comments:
09/29/12: GE managed to shrug off the market's widespread weakness and the stock rallied to another new multi-year high. We still don't want to chase it here. Right now the plan is to wait for a correction and buy a dip.

I am listing a buy-the-dip entry point at $21.50 with a stop loss at $19.75. Our long-term target is $27.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $21.50 (stop 19.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $25 call (GE1418a25)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 171.89

Comments:
09/29/12: The U.S. dollar has been rebounding higher, which may be slowing the rally in gold this past week. The GLD has been churning sideways. I am still expecting a correction before it moves higher.

Currently I am suggesting we buy calls on a dip at $165.50. Plan to exit the 2013 calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $165.50 (stop loss @ 159.00)

BUY the 2013 Jan $175 call (GLD1319a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 40.48

Comments:
09/29/12: Traders bought the dip near $40.00 this past week. JPM ended the week with a 40-cent loss. It's possible the $40 level will hold but I suspect we will see JPM spike lower and we want to be ready to buy the dip.

I am suggesting we buy calls on a dip at $38.50 with a stop loss at $35.75. Our long-term target is $45.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $38.50 (stop 35.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $45 call (JPM1418a45)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12