Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 8/30/2015

Table of Contents

  1. Leaps Trader Commentary
  2. Portfolio
  3. New Plays
  4. Play Updates
  5. Watch

Leaps Trader Commentary

Stocks Go Bungee Jumping

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

The stock market just corrected. Did you miss it? The S&P 500 suffered its first six-day sell-off in three years with a plunge that pushed it into correction territory (-10% or more from its highs). It looks like the correction is already over - at least the bulls are hoping it's over. We will talk about market direction later. Right now motion-sick traders are probably just happy it is the weekend after last week's roller coaster ride in stocks.

The Monday, August 24th, plunge in stocks was fueled by China. Last weekend investors were expecting the Chinese government to intervene and/or launch new stimulus measures. When they did not intervene investors pounded the sell button. The Chinese Shanghai market collapsed with a -8.5% drop on Monday. This yanked the rug out from under global markets and stocks plunged around the world.

European markets lost -5% on Monday with the German DAX sinking into bear market territory (-20% or more from its highs). The U.S. market enter freefall on Monday morning. The Dow Industrials fell almost -1,100 points in the first few minutes of trading. The S&P 500 dropped -5% and the NASDAQ plunged -8.8% at its lows for the session on Monday. Markets managed to trim their losses by Monday's closing bell but the bounce failed on Tuesday, which really rattled investor confidence. Rumors were spreading that the Chinese government had abandoned support for their stock market.

Then on Tuesday night, with the markets closed, the Chinese government finally stepped in. The Chinese central bank added 140 billion yuan (about $21.8 billion) to the interbank money market to boost liquidity. They also cut their benchmark interest rate and deposit rate by 25 basis points each to 4.6% and 1.75%, respectively. The central bank also lowered reserve requirement ratios for banks by 50 basis points to 18.0%.

This Tuesday-night move by the People's Bank of China helped soothe fears overseas but it wasn't until Thursday that the Chinese market started to bounce. A big rebound in the Shanghai index on Thursday was attributed to intervention by the government. Meanwhile the U.S. market rebounded on Wednesday, snapping its six-day streak of losses. The Wednesday-Thursday rally in the S&P 500 was the biggest two-day surge since March 2009.

Extreme Volatility

Last week's action in the stock market could be summed up in one word - volatility. Monday's drop marked the worst three-day point loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ever! Monday's drop also sparked 1,278 circuit breakers, which temporarily halts trading in stocks when they move too fast. That is a record number of circuit breakers in one day. A normal day sees less than 10 breakers being activated.

Tuesday was a real disappointment for investors. The Dow Industrial's reversal from +400 points to -200 was the biggest intraday reversal since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It was the biggest intraday reversal lower in the S&P 500 since October 2008.

Market legend Art Cashin was on the floor of the NYSE on Tuesday and noted that sell on close orders soared from $500 million (about normal) to $3.5 billion with just 12 minutes to go heading into the closing bell. He said bids just disappeared.

The Wall Street Journal noted that the Dow Industrials had six days in a row of 200-point moves. That has never happened before. The WSJ also noted that the S&P 500 saw six days in a row of 1% moves, which hasn't happened since spring of 2009. The sharp drop in the S&P 500 on Friday, August 21st, and Monday, August 24th, was the ninth time in the last 30 years that the index experienced back-to-back declines of 3% or more.

Then suddenly everything changed and panic selling turned into panic buying. Wednesday's rally in the market saw the major indices surge +4% or more. It was their best one-day gain since 2011. The Dow Industrials closed up 619 points. It was the first time the index had rallied more than 500 points since November 2008.

The research team at Bespoke Investment Group said the volatility was so bad that it was the worst in the last 75 years. The S&P 500 index closed more than four standard deviations below its simple 50-dma for three days in a row. That is only the second time in history it has ever happened. The previous time was May 15th, 1940. According to Bespoke the recent volatility was worse than the 1987 market crash. You can read more about it here.

The volatility index (the VIX) soared to levels not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The index hit 53 percent on Monday morning before closing at 40%. As of Friday's close the VIX is down to 26% but that is still elevated (above 20%). A lot of professional money managers expressed their concern last week that the correction is probably not over yet so traders are still buying more put options for protection (which helps drive the VIX higher).

chart of the Volatility index (VIX):

Investor Withdrawals

The stock market's sell-off fueled major outflows from mutual funds. The WSJ said "Investors pulled the most money in one day from stock exchange-traded funds and mutual funds on Tuesday since 2007, a clear sign of waning confidence."

According to analysts at Credit Suisse, the withdrawals started way before the sell-off in August. Their research found that Americans have been pulling money out of both stock mutual funds and bond funds since July. Normally when investors pull money out of stock funds there is influx of money into bonds. However, investors have been yanking money out of both stocks and bonds. That doesn't bode well since it suggest investors do not want exposure to any kind of risk.

Of course the recent market turmoil didn't help. Bank of America Merrill Lynch observed that investors withdrew $19 billion from funds on Tuesday last week. It was the second largest one-day withdrawal since 2007. Withdrawals for the week were almost $26 billion, the largest number of record (going back to 2002).

Economic Data

Most of last week's economic data was completely overshadowed by the market's volatility. That's too bad since most of it was generally bullish. The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose +5.0% in June. New home sales rose +5.4% in July to an annual pace of 507,000. Pending home sales were only up +0.5%.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index improved from 91.0 to 101.5 in August. Yet the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey actually retreated from July's 93.1 down to 91.9 in August. July saw personal income rise +0.4% while personal spending increased +0.3%.

Durable goods orders rose +2.0% in July after June's reading was revised higher from +3.4% to +4.0%. Excluding the more volatile transportation component the core-durable goods number rose +0.6% in July.

The biggest report for the week was the U.S. Q2 GDP estimate. The Commerce Department released their second estimate on Thursday. Analysts were expecting a range in the +2.3% to +3.6%. According to the government the U.S. grew at +3.7%, which is a big improvement from its first estimate of +2.3%. This number would support the Federal Reserve raising rates in September.

Overseas Economic Data

Economic data overseas was also lost amid the whirlwind of market volatility. Japan reported their household spending in July rose +0.6% for the month and up +2.2% from a year ago. Japan's retail sales came in better than expected with a +1.6% rise in July.

The focus was on China, specifically the Chinese stock market. After huge declines in the first half of the week the Chinese market finally started to bounce on Thursday and Friday. Reports that the government was intervening in the market helped fuel a +5.3% rally on Thursday and a +4.8% gain on Friday in the Shanghai composite. Yet in spite of these big bounce the Shanghai index still lost -7.8% for the week. At its June highs the Shanghai index was up +67% for the year. Today the Shanghai is now negative for the year.

Looking towards Europe we did see some improving GDP numbers. Germany said their Q2 GDP rose +0.4% for the quarter and +1.6% from a year ago. The United Kingdom reported Q2 GDP of +0.7%, which is a +2.6% improvement from a year ago. The Eurozone business and consumer survey for August inched higher from 104.0 to 104.2, which was better than expected.

Unfortunately analysts are lowering their global growth forecasts. Moody's just downgraded their forecast for the global economy to +2.8% in 2015. Citigroup reduced their global growth 2016 forecast from +3.3% to +3.1%, which was the third downgrade this year. Just about everyone is warning that China's growth is slower than the official estimates and that this will encumber the global economy.




Major Indices:

The S&P 500 index managed a +0.9% gain for the week, which is pretty amazing considering the carnage during its six-day slide. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -3.4%. With only one more session to go in August the index is poised to lose -5.8% for the month.

I want to warn readers that the violent breakdown in the S&P 500 has done a lot of technical damage. Stocks went from very oversold to overbought in just a couple of days. You can see on the daily chart that the bounce has not yet reached the 50% retracement of the drop. Coincidentally the 50% retracement level lines up with round-number resistance at the 2,000 mark.

The 2,000 to 2,130 area has a ton of resistance for the S&P 500 now. You could break it up into two chunks. The 2,000 to 2,050 area and the 2,050-2,130 area. Combine this overhead resistance with where we are on the calendar and I am not optimistic about the next several weeks since September has a history of disappointing market returns and the first half of October tends to be rough as well.

15-minute chart of the S&P 500 index:

Daily chart of the S&P 500 index:

Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index:

The volatility in the NASDAQ composite has been extreme. The index saw a five-day drop from about 5,100 down to 4,300 (-15.6%). The bounce off Monday's low near 4,300 to 4,828 is a +12% move. This index has gone from oversold to overbought very quickly.

For the week the NASDAQ managed a +2.6% gain, which boosts its year to date gain up to +1.95%.

Unfortunately, I'm worried the 200-dma near prior support in the 4,900 region will be heavy resistance.

chart of the NASDAQ Composite index:

Weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite index:

The bounce in the small cap Russell 2000 index has underperformed its large-cap rivals. Last week the $RUT ended with a +0.5% gain. Year to date it's down -3.47%. The index did find support near the 1,100 area. However, now it faces resistance near prior support around 1,180 and the 1,200 region.

chart of the Russell 2000 index

Weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index



Economic Data & Event Calendar

It's a new month and that means lots of economic news. We'll get both the ISM manufacturing and ISM services indices. We'll see PMI data out of China and Europe. Plus we'll have the normal monthly employment numbers from ADP and then the U.S. government. Of course investors will be interested to hear what ECB President Mario Draghi might have to say about Europe.

The big event is probably Friday's jobs report. The Federal Reserve is always watching the labor market. If the August jobs report is healthy it could be one more factor in the Fed's favor to raise rates at their September meeting.

- Monday, August 31 -
China manufacturing PMI data
Chicago PMI

- Tuesday, September 01 -
Eurozone manufacturing PMI data
ISM index
Auto and truck sales

- Wednesday, September 02 -
ADP Employment Change Report
Factory Orders
Federal Reserve Beige Book

- Thursday, September 03 -
ECB interest rate decision
ECB President Mario Draghi press conference
ISM Services index

- Friday, September 04 -
Nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report
Unemployment rate

Additional dates to be aware of:

Sept. 7th - U.S. Markets closed for Labor Day holiday
Sept. 9th - Apple Inc. (AAPL) holding a special event
Sept. 17th - FOMC meeting, policy update, economic forecasts
Sept. 17th - Fed Chairman Yellen press conference

Looking Ahead:

As we look ahead investors will be focused on three things. First is market volatility. However, we can't predict how big or how fast the market will move, especially since markets have been hostage to wild swings in the Chinese market lately. Let's pretend for a moment that the market's crazy moves cool off for a while (although that could be wishful thinking on my part).

The next issue or event investors will focus on is the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for September 16-17. Third, the movement in oil could be a market catalyst. However, oil has bounced and just snapped an eight-week losing streak, and considering the proximity of the Fed meeting the Fed's decision will likely be the main focus for the next two weeks. The Federal Reserve has not raised rates since 2006 and they have kept rates near zero since 2008. When they do decide to raise rates it will mark a major change in policy.

The three-day Fed-sponsored conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this past weekend didn't really shed any light on the Fed's upcoming decision. Comments from Fed officials have been ambivalent. Last Wednesday New York Fed President William Dudley caught the market's attention when he said that reasons for the Fed to raise rates in September "seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago." Then on Friday Fed Vice President Stanley Fischer suggested that a September rate hike has not been ruled out.

Meanwhile Wall Street analysts have been downgrading their forecasts for a rate hike this year. Barclays just pushed their estimate for the Fed's next hike from September to March 2016. A recent Reuters article said, "Between low inflation, market turmoil, continued job growth, a strong second-quarter GDP reading and the impact from China's devaluation of its currency, the decision is no slam dunk."

Fortune.com just ran an article this weekend discussing five reasons why the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year. According to the author the main reasons to delay are: recent stock market volatility, the widespread global economic slowdown, China's impact on the global economy, the strong U.S. dollar, and very low inflation. You can read more details here.

The Fed's decision at their September meeting could influence the market's direction for the rest of the year. It might be interesting to see what the Fed members are already thinking. If that sounds like your cup of tea then check out this article over at Marketwatch.com. They have a brief summary from all the Fed governors that reflect their opinion on raising rates. Check it out here.

The analysts at JPMorgan warned that the stock market could remain volatile over the next few weeks. However, they do not expect stocks to fall into a bear market and suggested the recent weakness was a buying opportunity. Goldman Sachs was also optimistic and still expect a rally to 2,100 by yearend. Believe it or not but yearend is only four months away. It could be a bumpy ride though.

September is historically one of the worst months of the year for stocks. According to the research team at Stock Trader's Almanac it's actually the worst. Since 1950 September delivers the worst performance for the Dow Industrials and S&P 500. The same holds true for the NASDAQ composite going back to 1971.

The combination of the Fed's potential market-moving meeting in mid September and September's history for weakness could keep investors on the sidelines. We should also consider the technical picture for the market. "V" shaped bottoms are not that common. Market corrections tend to take 60 to 90 days to play out. The good news is the market correction will provide a set up to launch positions for the next six to twelve months. The bad news is our next entry point may not be until the second half of September or even October. As long-term LEAPS traders we just need to be patient.

Please note that next weekend the LEAPStrader newsletter will be published on Tuesday, September 8th due to the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Enjoy your holiday next week and trade carefully!

~ James







Portfolio

Portfolio Update

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


Current Portfolio


Portfolio Comments:

The Chinese market continued its free fall last week and this sparked a global sell-off. The stock market panic on Monday, August 24th, hit levels not seen in years. Investors were selling everything. Nothing escaped including our active play list.

ATVI, CELG, DHR, GD, ITB, and STZ were stopped out.

V joined the active play list.

Disclaimer: At any given time the author may have positions in any or all of any companies mentioned in the Leaps Newsletter.

--Position Summary Table--
Table lists Directional CALL or PUT/LEAPS only.
Insurance puts, if applicable, are not shown.

Red symbol/name represents a play or option position exited or closed this week.




New Plays

Waiting On The Fed

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


- New Trades -


Editor's Note:

(August 30, 2015)

Cough, cough! Has the dust settled yet? The stock market is moving in extremes with huge moves both directions. The fear gauge (a.k.a. the VIX) remains elevated at 26% after hitting a multi-year high at 53% on Monday morning. The VIX was less than 11% four weeks ago.

I warned readers last week that the market sell-off wasn't done yet and don't be a hero. The sell-off on Monday was excessive. Today I'm worried the market correction is not over yet.

Stocks have produced a huge bounce off their lows but that doesn't mean the market correction is over. In last week's market commentary we shared some historical data on market corrections. Normally a correction lasts 60 to 90 days. There are always exceptions but betting on the "V" bottom could be dangerous.

Historically the month of September and early October can be a rough time for the stock market. If we consider the uncertainty surrounding China and the Fed's decision to raise or not raise rates at their next meeting then stocks are unlikely to continue higher. At the very least I would expect the market to churn sideways until the FOMC meeting on September 16-17th.

If the Federal Reserve can convince the market that the U.S. economy is healthy enough to endure a rate increase in spite of the global economic slowdown, then I could see the market rally continuing. If the Fed fails to communicate this clearly enough then stocks are likely to trade flat to down.

With so much uncertainty in the market I am not suggesting new longer-term LEAPS trades at this time. Last week I suggested waiting for the dust to settle. It has not settled yet.

Be patient. There is always another entry point.



Play Updates

Market Extremes Pummel Stocks

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

The stock market volatility hit extremes last week. According to the research teams at Bespoke Investment Group, the market's volatility hasn't been this bad in the last 75 years. You can't plan for events like this. You trade with stop losses and hope they work to reduce risk our risk but they are not guarantees.

The market's sell-off was so bad on Monday that all of our active trades were stopped out but it also triggered our buy-the-dip trade on Visa.


Closed Plays


ATVI, CELG, DHR, GD, ITB, and STZ were stopped out.



Play Updates


Visa Inc. - V - close: 72.46

Comments:
08/30/15: The market volatility last Monday was crazy and it impacted our Visa entry in a big way.

We had Visa on the watch list with a suggested entry point to buy the January 2017 $80 call on a dip at $70.50 and an initial stop loss at $66.25. The market sell-off was so bad on Monday, August 24th, that shares of Visa gapped open lower at $64.16, which opened our play. Shares spiked down to $60.00 at its worst levels on Monday before closing at $68.36. By Friday's closing bell V was up to $72.46.

So now what do we do?

Visa still has a six-week bearish trend of lower highs and I am not convinced the market correction is over already. Odds are good that Visa will revisit the $70.00 region and potentially the 200-dma (currently around $67.65). Therefore, I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

More aggressive or nimble investors may want to consider buying a dip in the $68-70 range, however, I would definitely wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating new positions.

At the moment I am removing any stop loss. You can try and limit your risk by reducing your position size.

Trade Description: August 9, 2015:
The world is moving closer and closer to a cash-less society. Big payment processing companies like Visa and MasterCard will benefit from this transition.

According to the company, "Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is a global payments technology company that connects consumers, businesses, financial institutions, and governments in more than 200 countries and territories to fast, secure and reliable electronic payments. We operate one of the world's most advanced processing networks - VisaNet - that is capable of handling more than 56,000 transaction messages a second, with fraud protection for consumers and assured payment for merchants. Visa is not a bank and does not issue cards, extend credit or set rates and fees for consumers. Visa's innovations, however, enable its financial institution customers to offer consumers more choices: pay now with debit, pay ahead of time with prepaid or pay later with credit products."

It's important to note that V does not extend credit to consumers. There's no credit risk for bad loans here. V makes money on transactions. That business is booming.

On July 23rd V report its Q3 results, which were $0.74 per share. That beat estimates by 16 cents. Revenues were also higher than expected at $3.52 billion, up +11.5%. Management offered strong guidance and upped their EPS estimates into the mid teen percentage range. Long-term V is expected to grow earnings at almost 15%.

One of the big stories to come out of V's recent earnings report was news of a merger brewing. Visa is talking to former subsidiary Visa Europe. Estimates suggest the price target could be in the $15-20 billion range. Wall Street is positive on the deal and Visa expects it would add to earnings in fiscal 2017.

Another reason to be bullish on Visa is the fact that China recently opened its market to foreign companies to participate in clearing domestic bank card transactions. Previously only Chinese companies could do this. Now giants like V and MasterCard can compete in a market valued at more than $6.8 trillion. Considering V's expertise in this field we should expect them to grab a healthy chunk of the market.

Shares of V recently surged to new all-time highs and traded above $76 per share. After four up weeks in a row V posted a loss last week. Technically it produced a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on its weekly chart. If shares do correct lower we want to take advantage of the pullback. Broken support near $70.00 should be support. Tonight we are suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger at $70.50.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 24, 2015 - entry price on V @ 64.16, option @ 2.76
symbol: V170120C80 2017 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $5.40/5.75

08/30/15 Remove the stop loss
08/24/15 triggered on gap down at $64.16, suggested entry was a buy-the-dip trigger at $70.50.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: n/a
Play Entered on: 08/24/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/09/15




CLOSED Plays


Activision Blizzard, Inc. - ATVI - close: 29.22

Comments:
08/30/15: The stock market's extreme volatile has generated huge moves in ATVI. The range for the week was $27.22 down to $24.04 and back up to $30.00 by Friday.

This trade was stopped out on Monday's market collapse at $24.90.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 21, 2015 - entry price on ATVI @ 26.25, option @ 2.23
symbol: ATVI170120C30 2017 JAN $30 call - exit $1.32 (-40.8%)

08/24/15 stopped out
08/09/15 new stop @ 24.90
08/04/15 ATVI beats estimates on both the top and bottom line and raises guidance.
07/21/15 Trade begins. ATVI opens at $26.25
07/20/15 ATVI closed @ $26.25, above our trigger of $26.15
07/12/15 new entry strategy: Wait for a close above $26.15, then buy calls
Use the 2017 Jan $30 call
06/28/15 adjust the entry trigger to $23.75 and the stop to $21.85.
06/21/15 move the stop loss to $22.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 24.90
Play Entered on: 07/21/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/24/15


Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 124.04

Comments:
08/30/15: The volatility in CELG last week was pretty amazing. Shares plunged to $92.98 on Monday morning. Yet by Friday's close the stock was up to $124.04. That is a $5.00 gain for the week and a +33% rally off its low.

We were stopped out on Monday morning at the open. Our stop was $114.75 but CELG gapped open lower at $104.28.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 21, 2015 - entry price on CELG @ 121.00, option @ 7.15
symbol: CELG160115C130 2016 JAN $130 call - exit $1.96 (-72.5%)

08/24/15 stopped out on gap down at $104.28, stop was $114.75.
08/21/15 triggered. Buy-the-dip entry point at $121.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 114.75
Play Entered on: 08/21/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/09/15


Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 88.06

Comments:
08/30/15: DHR is another victim of Monday's market madness. Shares gapped open lower at $82.67. Our stop was $84.50. Monday's open happened to be the low for the week.

I'd keep DHR on your radar screen. The stock has potential.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 21, 2015 - entry price on DHR @ 88.25, option @ 5.50
symbol: DHR170120C100 2017 JAN $100 call - exit $3.70 (-32.7%)

08/24/15 stopped out on gap down at $82.67, stop was $84.50
08/21/15 Triggered on gap down at $88.25, suggested entry was a dip at $88.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 84.50
Play Entered on: 08/21/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/16/15


General Dynamics - GD - close: 144.53

Comments:
08/30/15: The volatility in shares of GD over the last two weeks has been ridiculous. The stock fell from the $153 area down to $132.00 in about three days. That erased four month's worth of gains.

Our trade was stopped out on Monday morning when GD gapped down at $136.01. Our stop loss was $144.75.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 16, 2015 - entry price on GD @ 148.00, option @ 2.85
symbol: GD160115C160 2016 JAN $160 call - exit $0.20 (-92.9%)

08/24/15 stopped out on gap down at $136.01
08/23/15 Caution - GD could hit our stop at $144.75 on Monday morning
08/16/15 new stop @ 144.75
07/16/15 trade begins. GD opens at $148.00
07/15/15 Triggered. GD closed at $147.25, above our $147.00 trigger
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 144.75
Play Entered on: 07/16/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/12/15


iShares US Home Construction ETF - ITB - close: 27.60

Comments:
08/30/15: The relative strength in homebuilding stocks vanished on Monday. The ITB spiked down to $23.50 on Monday morning (Aug. 24th). Shares haven't traded that low since October 2014.

We had a stop loss at $26.75, which was hit pretty early on Monday.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 11, 2015 - entry price on ITB @ 27.09, option @ 1.70
symbol: ITB160115C30 2016 JAN $30 call - exit $0.70 (-58.8%)

08/24/15 stopped out
08/02/15 new stop @ 26.75
07/12/15 new stop @ 25.90
06/28/15 last week new home sales surged to their best levels since early 2008
06/15/15 the NAHB confidence survey hits 9-month highs
05/31/15 the ITB is not performing well. Investors may want to consider an early exit.
03/01/15 new stop @ $25.45
02/11/15 trade begins. ITB opens at $27.09
02/10/15 ITB closes at $27.10, above our trigger at $27.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: ITB @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 26.75
Play Entered on: 02/11/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/11/15


Constellation Brands Inc. - STZ - close: 127.94

Comments:
08/30/15: The trade in STZ has also been very intense. The stock collapsed from $130 to almost $114 in less than a week as the market plunged. Then when stocks bounced STZ rebound back to $128.

We had a stop loss at $117.75. Unfortunately our play was closed on Monday's gap down at $115.27.

I would keep STZ on your radar screen. Wait for a pullback and look for support in the $122-124 region.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 21, 2015 - entry price on STZ @ 123.50, option @ 11.60
symbol: STZ170120C130 2017 JAN $130 call - exit $6.40 (-44.8%)

08/24/15 stopped out on gap down at $115.27, stop was $117.75
08/21/15 triggered at $123.50
08/16/15 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger from $122.00 to $123.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 117.75
Play Entered on: 00/00/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/09/15



Watch

A Watch List Special Edition

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


New Watch List Entries


None, no new watch list candidates



Active Watch List Candidates


None, please see tonight's special edition of the watch list.



Dropped Watch List Entries

Visa (V) graduated to our play list.



New Watch List Candidates:

Tonight we are going to do the watch list a little different.

The U.S. market has produced a huge bounce off its Monday morning lows. The Wednesday-Thursday rally in the S&P 500 was the biggest two-day move since 2009.

That followed a six-day plunge pushed the U.S. market into correction territory.

Stocks went from oversold to overbought in about two days. This kind of volatility is nearly impossible to trade.

I am encouraging investors to take a step back. Let the dust settle and then carefully select your targets. The next four to six weeks could be challenging for stocks.


I am not adding any new candidate to the watch list tonight.

However, I am listing several stocks on my radar screen and where I am looking at potential entry points. These are not official trade set ups just an early warning at some of the stocks I am watching.

ATVI - We recently had ATVI on our watch list and it graduated to an active play. Unfortunately last week's madness stopped us out and then ATVI reversed higher in a big way.

I don't want to chase it here. Wait for a pullback into the $26-28 area and then look for another rally higher as a potential entry point.

BCR - BCR corrected back toward support near $180 and bounced. I would not want to chase a nearly +10% rebound with shares just below resistance near $200. However, the long-term trend for BCR is very bullish. Another dip near $180 could be an entry point. If shares continue to show relative strength then a close above $202.00 might be an aggressive entry point.

CLX - The area to watch for CLX looks like the $114-115 area. A close above $115.00 might be a new bullish entry point.

FIS - This stock filled the gap from mid August and then bounced back to post a gain on the week. I would watch it for a close above the August highs (near $72.30) as a potential entry point. Alternatively another dip and bounce from the $66 area could be an entry but wait for the bounce.

FB - Facebook is a market darling. The volatility in the last several days has been incredible. Right now FB is facing resistance in the $90-100 region after a huge bounce off its Monday morning lows. If the market retreats lower then we might see FB retest the $80-85 region. I'd be tempted to buy calls on a bounce above $85 after another pullback.

DIS - Shares of DIS were crushed in August with a plunge from $121 to $90 (a -25% correction). Yet the outlook for DIS remains very bullish. The area to focus on is $90-95. This region should be support. A dip here or better yet wait for the dip and buy long-term calls on a bounce out of this range.

SBUX - SBUX is another high-profile market darling that was unfairly punished during the sell-off. I'd watch for a retest of round-number support near $50.00 and consider buying calls on a bounce there.

NKE - This is another high-quality name that fractured last week. I do not want to buy it after a rebound from $95 to $112 in four days. Keep an eye on the $100-105 area, which should be support.

HIG - Financials have not performed well this year but HIG has been an exception. When the market collapsed traders bought the dip at technical support. HIG managed to maintain is long-term bullish up trend. Another dip in the $43-44 area could be a bullish entry point.

DDD - After a decline from $97 a share to $11 in the last two years the selling might be finally nearing an end. Believe it or not but the action in DDD over the last four weeks is starting to look like a potential bullish double bottom. This is probably a higher-risk, more aggressive trade but a close above $15.50 might be a bullish entry point to consider.

PANW - This stock was another high-profile market darling and when it reversed lower the drop was sharp. PANW fell from $200 to $140 in less than five weeks. I would watch for another retreat into the $140-150 area. If PANW holds support in that region then we can re-evaluate a potential bullish trade.

UA - This company is outgrowing its larger rival NKE. Yet that didn't stop the stock from getting crushed with a drop from $100 to $80 in about four days. Wait for another pullback. The $85-90 area is where I would watch for new support.

STZ - We recently had STZ as an active trade. Unfortunately the market's volatility was too much and shares plunged to support near $115 and then almost recovered its entire decline. This bounce looks too far too fast. I'd watch for another dip into the $120-122 area and then consider buying calls on a rebound.

FL - This is another shoe-related company that is outperforming the broader market this year. Traders bought the dip near $64-65. Another dip near $65.00 could be a great entry point for bullish positions.

RAI - This tobacco company is popular among dividend investors. Even near all-time highs RAI still has a 3.4% yield. The stock is about to see a 2-for-1 split (scheduled for Sept. 1st). I would check on RAI a week or two after the stock split and watch for a dip into the $77.50 area. Post-split that will be $38-39 region and consider new positions if this support holds.

LPNT - Traders bought the dip near significant support and the long-term bullish trend of higher lows remains intact. LPNT does not have LEAPS options but interested traders could still buy calls a few months out. A close above the $82.50 area might be a good entry point.